Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jordan Walden is replacing Fernando Rodney as the closer for the Angels.  The Angels decided to drop a guy with two first names for a guy with two last names.  Makes sense – you start a game with a guy with two first names, you close a game with a guy with two last names.  (No bullpen backup plan for you, Jeff Francis!)  (Oh, and don’t forget Charles (Jeff) Nelson Reilly in middle relief.)  Walden should be owned in every league that counts things like saves.  Seems like a Neftali-type situation.  Walden has to lose the job back to Rodney.  Fernando can’t win it back by just being good (as remote as that even seems).  By June, Walden can be a Donkeycorn and never look back.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kendrys Morales – Took BP.  Where?  To court for the oil spill?  *rereading news report*  Oh!  Batting practice.  That’s a good sign.  If someone lost patience with Kendrys, I’d buy him for sixty cents on the dollar.  No more though, he could be a setback away from missing another month.

Hank Conger – Homered in his first start of the season.  Here’s what Stephen said about Conger, “He has above average bat speed and contact.  His plate-discipline is stellar but his defense is still marginal at best.  I don’t see the Angels giving him much of a chance catching.”  And that’s me quoting Stephen!  Conger’s in a tough spot for playing time; Scioscia loves Mathis like a fat kid loves cake.

Sean Rodriguez – 1-for-3 with his first homer.  This comes after Maddon announced Felipe Lopez would see time at 3rd while Longoria’s out.  Sean-Rod pissed off the baseball gods in another life because he just can’t get guaranteed playing time no matter where he is.  Oh, and on a real baseball note, the Rays don’t look good.  That is all.

Madison Bumgarner – 3 IP, 3 ER vs. the Padres.  When the only hitter you need to pitch around is Nick Hundley, you kinda should beat the team… Or at least get out of the fourth inning.

Aaron Harang – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Before the game, Tony Gwynn announced the arrival of a brand new Hodgepadre.  Then Tony ate a hot fudge sundae while watching a videotape of his old at-bats.  Pretty unsexy name, but the Harangutan is worth starting at home in every league until he no longer is.

Mike Leake – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Before you run out and pick him up, this was against the team Ed Wade’s Toupee put together that is currently 0-4.

Mike Stanton – Pinch hit yesterday, but is supposedly not starting until Friday with his hamstring strain.  The real sad emoticon in this whole thing is he had leg issues in the spring so hopefully this won’t be an ongoing issue the whole year.

Gaby Sanchez - 2-for-5, hitting .444 on the year.  I wouldn’t defrost Ted Williams head just yet, but he’s hitting well.

Anibal Sanchez – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  It’s not Dirty Sanchez, it’s not Filthy Sanchez, it’s Unsanitary Sanchez.

Ryan Zimmerman – 1-for-2 with his first homer and he’s hitting .364.  Member when you wouldn’t draft him because he wasn’t playing in Spring Training?  Oh, you.

Mike Morse – 1-for-4 with 3 Ks, now hitting .154.  I’d say he’s not hitting righties, but he’s not hitting lefties either.

Brandon McCarthy – 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the 1927 Blue Jays.  What I’m thinking with McCarthy is Beane, as played by Brad Pitt, hasn’t had much luck in the last few years, so McCarthy is gonna pan out.  I think that’s confirmation bias, but I don’t feel like going to Wikipedia to look it up.  Either way, that’s a marginal ‘keep your eye on him, but don’t pick him up yet.’  (Sorry, you now have to read the rest of this with one eye.)

Conor Jackson – 2-for-4 as he hit 3rd.  He’s like totally recovered from Valley Fever, as if.  BTW, he’s a backup outfielder as of right now.  Yes, a team is very good when they have a backup outfielder batting third.  /sarcasm

Brian Fuentes – Out with a blister.  The A’s manager hopes Fuentes can go Wednesday.  Fantasy managers that own Fuentes aren’t sure what to hope for.

Alex Gordon – 3-for-5 with his first homer (in possibly 4 years, or maybe it just feels that way).  After he hit the home run, fireworks went off… In my heart.  He’s batting third and hitting; ask questions later, just pick him up.

Alcides Escobar – 1-for-5.  Whoopie-doo, I know.  But he stole his 2nd base.  Last year, it took him until May 29th to steal his 2nd base.  Oh, it’s on.

Yovani Gallardo – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Rudy picked him to win the Cy Young.  In the preseason, I ranked him 10th overall for all starters.  If you’re reading this, you probably own him.  Yay us!

Carlos Gomez – Benched for Nyjer.  And that’s how quickly a major league manager can realize a player sucks at baseball.   Oh, well.

James McDonald -  4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I gotta be honest, my heart wasn’t fully into this guy as a potential late round bargain.  Pirates pitchers are arghuably the worst in baseball from 1 through 5.  In most competitive leagues, I’d hold McDonald for another start, but start making other plans.

Kyle McClellan – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I’m eating whatever Dave Duncan is cooking.

Cole Hamels – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Drop him!  I keed.  He had a 5.28 ERA last April and still ended the year with a 3.06.  As they say in Vegas about the shoe, you gotta deal with it.

Chris Young – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Was so cute the way the giraffes at the Bronx Zoo all gathered around the TV to watch this start.  I liked Young when he pitched for the Padres, and Metco isn’t that bad, but his fastball has been trending down for four years and he works up in the zone.  9 baserunners in 5 and a third like yesterday isn’t great.  You can pick him up, I wouldn’t.  I.e., You do what you do and I’ll do what I do and we’ll be fine.

Josh Tomlin – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I believe Josh Tomlin was a child actor on an 80′s sitcom.  I wouldn’t pick him up, Willis.

Josh Beckett – 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Sticking with the newly established Josh theme, I don’t love Beckett to bounce back from last year.

Barry Enright – 6 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Uncle Barry was babysitting the baby bears and they went wild.  BTW, Barry Enright vs. Andrew Cashner sounds like a match-up in the Greater Westchester County Dental Tennis league.

Andrew Cashner – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Pitched beautifully until he left the game with tightness in his shoulder.  Accidentists happen.

Tyler Colvin – 1-for-3 with his 1st homer of the year.  It’s about time!  Oh, wait, it’s less than a week into the season.  Eh, you probably dropped him already.

Jhoulys Chacin – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Another pitcher I told everyone and their pedophile uncle to draft.  Hope you had the peanuts to start him in Coors.

Chris Iannetta – 1-for-3 with his first homer and he’s hitting .444 on the year.  I saw someone ask the other day in the comments if they should drop him.  Didn’t you just draft him?

Michael Pineda – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Not bad vs. Texas.  But, hey, listen, he’s a rookie, it’s not going to be all peaches and cream in the champagne room every start out.

Willie Bloomquist – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs and a steal.  Justice has been served!

Juan Miranda – 1-for-3.  Kirk Gibson announced Miranda would get the majority of the starts to see what they have in him.  Finally, a manager that makes a smart decision.  Miranda’s worth a flyer in leagues 14+ to see if he can not only stick but make good on some of his promise.

Justin Upton – 1-for-4, I wish Justin and B.J. had a brother named Wes.  Wesssssupppppton!

Mark Teixeira – His fourth homer.  He attributed his newfound early season success to not sleeping since last October.  This message was sponsored by Red Bull.

Alexi Ogando – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  A… O… A’ight!  He left with a blister.  Probably because he was throwing heat.  He won’t be in the rotation for long, but you have my permission to grab him while he is.

Aaron Hill – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs.  I think I heard mumblings in the forums or the comments or somewhere that Aaron Hill is already a bust.  Um, they’ve only played four games and he’s hitting cleanup for the 1927 Blue Jays.  Chillax.

Jose Bautista – Out because of a personal matter.  I’m guessing he’s in Russia killing people for Ben.

Many things have changed since December when we kicked off the 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper posts.  For one, the date.  For two, some of these guys are no longer that sleepery.  For three, hut-hut-hike!  As long as you don’t reach too far, sleepers can make all the difference on your team.  You’re not grabbing a sleeper in the first round.  You’re not like, “Hey, Swiggy Cabrera, you go threaten death on the shot girl, I’m going with Juan Miranda.”  You should have a solid foundation in the first eight to ten rounds, then mix some sleepers in after that.  If you click on the names for these players, there’s entire posts about some of them with their 2011 projections.  It’s magical!  Anyway, here’s some sleepers for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Shaun Marcum – Member back in December when he was first traded and I started raving about him?  We were younger back then and you had more hair.  Also, Marcum was still sleepery then.  Now?  Not so much.  Seems like everywhere I look people are abuzz with excitement over Marcum.  Assuming you don’t pay too high of a price, he can still have value.

J.P. Arencibia -  When I say punt catcher, you say Arencibia… Punt catcher… Arencibia… Punt catcher… Arencibia… Punt middle infielder… Arencibia… Gotcha.

Chris Iannetta – I refuse to write a sleeper post on him for fear it might jinx him, but I will continue to talk about how I won’t write a sleeper post on him for fear it might jinx him hoping that doesn’t jinx him.  All aboard as the logic train is leaving the station!

Mike Minor -  Wanna hear me make an outlandish prediction?  Of course you do, you love when I sound like a damn fool.  Minor will be a top 20 starter this year.  If I’m right you win, if I’m wrong you win.  You’re welcome.

Tim Stauffer – I love me some hodgepadres. (I also love telling girls who are walking dogs on the street, “You have a really nice poochie,” but I mumble poochie like I’m Sling Blade so they think I’m saying something else.  So, ya know, you might want to think twice about listening to me.)

Edwin Jackson – Here’s the limb, here’s me out on it with Edwin Jackson.  Don’t too many of youse come out too, shizz ain’t that sturdy.

Daniel Hudson – Here’s another one of those examples of guys that I was touting at the end of last year as a potential sleeper for 2011 and now we have a bunch of company.  Hey, use a coaster!

Edinson Volquez – I’m anticipating a ton of comments after Edinson’s first blow up about dropping him.  He walks people, you have to remain patient.

Sean Rodriguez – He’s either going to break out in the non-acne way or he’s going to go between ownable and non-ownable in most mixed leagues.  Honestly, I’m not sure yet which one it’ll be and anyone that does know is a time traveler or Mayan.

Ryan Raburn – Father, I have a confession.  I wish Raburn stole 7-10 bases so I could label him Mini Mini Mini Donkey.  But he can’t carry that torch and, besides, who needs him to have that baggage?  If Raburn has 2nd base eligibility in your league, go all-in check raising to the bettor.

Alcides Escobar – Last year, Willie Mays Hayes without the steals.  This year, steals.

Ian Desmond – It’s pretty odd when you have a guy you label a sleeper last year perform and he still ends up a sleeper the following year.  Are the Nats that bad to invest in?  Probably, but you can put away your checkbook and just draft Desmond.

Aaron Hill – Practicing my best Saberhagenmetrics, I think Hill is going to make his owners this year happy and really piss off everyone who owned him last year.

Brandon Morrow – I hate that he’s on Rudy’s risky pitcher post, but it seemed like a given.  Morrow is not the bill of good, consistent health.  He’s probably one injury away from being a Bennis Carpensheeter.  But his stuff is nasty.

Justin Smoak – Another guy that is probably waiver wire fodder in most mixed leagues.  I’m okay with that, I’ll write the Buy/Sells every Friday like usual and tell you to pick him up when he’s hitting.

Peter Bourjos – I imagine the only trueheads that will be drafting Bourjos are those in AL-Only leagues.  That’s okay, I guarantee he’ll be ownable in your mixed league too.

Drew Stubbs – Guy has a real basebally sounding name, huh?  Drew Stubbs plays baseball; that’s what Drew Stubbs does.  To preemptively strike against at least four comments, Stubbs is being drafted 156th at MDC.  A) That’s too late.  B) That’s why he’s a sleeper.  C) What C?

It’s always good to look at spring training numbers to give you an idea what you can expect from guys during the season.  They’re facing the top pitchers who are all displaying their best stuff.  No one needs time to get warmed up.  No one’s trying new pitches or getting a feel for the ball.  They are at the height of their game in March.  In fact, I think someone should propose to Bud that the World Series could easily be played in March.  Yes, The March Classic.  I like how that sounds.  Since these spring training numbers mean so much, I decided to look at some players in March:

Sean Rodriguez – Has 6 homers while batting .460.  Forget Sean-Rod, how about Wow-Rod?!  Am I right or am I right-right?!

Dana Eveland – Absolutely sparkling so far with a 1.23 ERA.  He’s barely beating hotshot, upstart… Really Madlibs in any enthusiastic adjective for Rodrigo Lopez with his 1.64 ERA.

Justin Masterson – 29 Ks to 6 BBs.  Thank you, Lord, the walks have finally found their way out of his dazzling repertoire.

Corey Hart – On the sad emoticon front, Hart is hitting .127 in the spring.

These stats are from 2010 Spring Training.  That’s right.  You fell for the oldest trick in the book, mon.  These are not from 2011.  A real beauty pageant of names, right?  Seriously, please stop looking at spring stats.  Dana Eveland went on to post a 6.79 ERA in only 54 and a 1/3 IP, Rodrigo Lopez had a 5.00 ERA in 200 IP and Justin Masterson had no luck with walks and threw a 4.70 ERA.  Corey Hart had his best season after an awful 2010 Spring Training while Sean Rodriguez had only 9 homers over the course of the whole season.  Spring stats mean nothing.  You should only be looking at who’s healthy, who’s winning position battles and who’s winning rotation spots.  The rest is meaningless.

Between the two middle infield positions, I tend to draft a 2nd baseman early and punt shortstop.  This happens for a few reasons.  1) 2nd base has more talent.  That’s right, I draft the deeper position earlier.  Same reason I punt catchers and try to get a 1st baseman early.  If a position is deep, a lot of your leaguemates are going to have one of the top guys.  You don’t want to be one of the 3 or 4 teams without a top guy.  2) There’s less difference between a middle-tiered shortstop and a bottom-tiered one.  (Same could be said of catchers.  We have a theme!  Or is it a genre?  No, it’s a theme!) 3) Shortstops tend to give value with the steal.  You can find cheap steals later.  Most of the 2nd basemen on this list are going after the top 150 in your 2011 fantasy drafts.  This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2011 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2011 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2011 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Raburn – Love him.  No, no I don’t.  Love’s not strong enough.  I lurve him, Woody Allen.  And with all of this lurve, if he doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility in your league, you say alas and wave to him with your WWII-era hat as your train leaves the station.

Aaron Hill – I imagine after Uggla’s average plummets back to .250 and Hill’s average reverts back to its norm in 2011, they will be drafted near each other in 2012.  It’s a hunch.  Sorry to burst your Uggla bubble, or Buggla if you’re into portmanteaus. BTW, my first released album was “Bursting Bugglas.”  Wasn’t that well-received.

Danny Espinosa – His ADP is 340 in mock drafts. Around the same spot as Stephen Strasburg, who is, obviously, not playing this year. Oh, wait, I know! Strasburg is being mock drafted in mock keepers. Gotcha. You people are sneaky!

Howie Kendrick – I could see the universe throwing me some kind of sick, twisted curveball where I end up drafting Kendrick and Russell Martin on the same team. See, two guys I never liked before this year and now I’m liking them. Eh, it’s not important if everyone understands what I’m saying.

Gordon Beckham – Here’s what I said in the top 20 2nd basemen post, “He started to show signs in the 2nd half (in 171 ABs, 6 home runs and a .310 average).  Some continuation of that progress and he’ll outproduce his draft spot.  There’s still 15 homer power in his mollywhoppers and 10 steal speed in his gams.”  And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Sean Rodriguez – To save one commenter the time, I don’t know if Sean-Rod is starting.  For where he’s being drafted, it doesn’t matter.  Take a flyer.  If it doesn’t work out, you can always grab a different MI.

Eric Young Jr. – Please refer 1/8th of an inch above or what I said about Sean-Rod.

Neil Walker – He’s currently at 264 on the Mock Draft Central ADP list.  Is he really over a 100 spots behind Mike Aviles?  Wait, is Mike Aviles family all drafting Aviles in the first round to bump up his draft slot?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – I had an interesting exchange with Rudy the other day on IM. He IM’d me, “Do a sleeper post about Tsuyoshi.” I IM’d him back, “I already highlighted him in my rankings and talked about him when the Twins signed him.” He IM’d back, “Sorry, I don’t read your posts.”

Jose Lopez – Well, ain’t that an exciting name to end the targets with!  Yeah, Jose Lopez is yawnstipating to draft.  Sure, you’re right, but guess his age.  No, lower.  Lower still.  No, he’s not twelve years old!  He’s 27.  It would shock you if a 27-year-old went to Coors and hit 25 homers, matching his career high that he achieved while playing in Safeco?  Wouldn’t shock me.  Cust kayin’.

We continue our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  For the first time in a while, there’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I talk more about that later this afternoon. (Yes, we’re moving back to two posts a day.  You’re excited.)  There’s a few 2nd basemen that really stand out.  I want a 40 steal 2nd baseman.  Eric Young Jr., “I’ll be your huckleberry, Grey.”  Aw, thanks, Junior.  I want a 2nd baseman with Uggla-like power but for half the price.  Ryan Raburn, “May I interest you in some Raburn?”  You may, but only if you have eligibility in my league.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Uggla.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a legit 2nd baseman.”  Let’s face it, legit’s overextending itself in that sentence.  One or more of these first six 2nd basemen are gonna Triple Lindy into an empty pool and it ain’t gonna be pretty.  Luckily, the difference between the first couple of 2nd basemen and the next couple really isn’t that big of a difference.  I.e., you can recover from one of these guys flopping.  I keep lowering your expectations because I really don’t trust Kinsler, but now that he’s a bit cheaper at drafts, I’m willing to give him a chance for a bounce back.  He’s gotta stay healthy one of these years, right?  How’s that for confidence!  2011 Projections:  85/22/60/.270/17

3. Brandon Phillips – He’s younger than Ryan Raburn.  That’s to say, Phillips seems like he’s been around forever, but he can still put up the 20/20 season.  Granted, everything went right last year for the Reds in 2010, even Marge Schott’s ghost didn’t say anything inappropriate to Jackie Robinson’s ghost.  Everything, except Brandon Phillips’ season.  His worst season since his rookie year back in 2003.  He was also battling injuries.  Through the injuries he still played in 155 games and put up a 18/16 season.  A modest bounce back and he’s a top 4 ranked 2nd baseman.  2011 Projections:  85/20/70/.270/17

4. Dustin Pedroia – The surgically-repaired left foot should be fine for the start of the season.  Until it’s not, of course.  No, it should.  I’m not too concerned with Pedroia.  Sparky Anklebiters don’t let little things like rust or injury rehab slow them down.  He’s basically the same as Philips fantasy value-wise.  A few more homers and steals with Phillips, a few more runs and average here.  If you want Pedroia 4th, I won’t hate.  2011 Projections:  105/15/65/.290/15

5. Dan Uggla – When Uggla was traded, I went over my Uggla fantasy.  It’s all there in 10 point Times New Roman.  The reason why he’s ranked below some of the guys above but his projections look as good if not better because A) Kinsler has the biggest upside.  B) Phillips and Pedroia are safer.  C) Uggla has the biggest downside in one category, he could hit .240.  D)  There’s no D.  2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.265/5

6. Rickie Weeks – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Figgins.  I call this tier, “Do you feel lucky?  Well, do you punk?”  Makes sense that there are two question marks in the tier name because all of these guys have question marks.  Before 2010, Weeks had the health of that Texas oil tycoon Anna Nicole married five years after he died.  Weeks used to call up Glass Chipper for doctor referrals.  His nickname was Sickie.  All that wouldn’t matter if Weeks wasn’t so talented.  He can repeat his power output from last year and add more steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2011 Projections:  85/18/65/.250/14

7. Aaron Hill – I already threw an Aaron Hill sleeper post at you.  Go read up on that and come back and tell me what a dummkopf I am.  The reason why he’s in the “Feel lucky” tier and not the straight out excitement tier is because I’m being optimistic with Hill.  If he hits only 17 homers, then you’re gonna wanna become a mailman just so you can go postal.  2011 Projections:  80/25/85/.275/5

8. Ben Zobrist – Power really got pulled out from underneath Zobrist in 2010.  His HR/FB% went from a 17.4% in 2008, 17.5% in 2009 to 6.0% last year.  So if you believe the former numbers, he’s going to hit 20 homers again.  If you believe the latter number and assuming I’m using latter and former correctly, he’s going to barely crack 10 homers again.  Or just split the difference… 2011 Projections:  70/15/70/.260/15

9. Chase Utley – UPDATE:  Don’t draft Utley.  I still got love for you, Utley.  It’s just not the kind of love that finds its way on my fantasy team.  2011 Projections: 50/14/55/.280/5

10. Brian Roberts – He returned to decent numbers if you prorate them over a full year (59 games, 230 ABs, 4 homers, 12 steals).  Unfortunately, he’s now 33 years old and collecting back issues of Men’s Health.  Counting on Roberts to give you 155+ games and 30+ steals is being a tad bit optimistic.  2011 Projections:  80/7/45/.285/22

11. Chone Figgins – On one hand, I kinda hate Figgy.  On the other hand, I kinda despise Figgy.  On my third, lesser known hand, I think he’ll probably be more valuable than Brian Roberts.  Stupid irrational hate over a splash of confirmation bias.  You are a deadly cocktail!  2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.270/35

12. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “I’m on board with these guys.”  I shouldn’t even have ranked Raburn because of his lack of 20 games at 2nd base, but I’m kinda totally in love with him.  Unfortunately, he only played in 18 games at 2nd base so he’s not eligible in all leagues.  I touched on him briefly already in a Raburn sleeper post.  Since the restraining order hadn’t gone through yet, that touching wasn’t prohibited by law.  Phew.  This fantasy shizz is serious!  This is the last year Raburn will be a sleeper.  Not because he’s going to breakout and be overvalued next year.  Well, that could be the reason.  Not because he’ll never come close to 20 games at 2nd base again.  Well, that could be the reason too.  But more likely because he’s going to be 30 years old in 2011.  He has 25 homer power.  At 2nd base, you shouldn’t need to know more.  If he doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility in your league, then ignore this blurb.  2011 Projections:  70/21/80/.275/3

13. Kelly Johnson – Member last year when he hit a few homers and I called him Kelly Kapowski?  The times we had!  I was kinda crazy about Johnson last preseason and he repaid the trust.  He also got a bit lucky.  He’s really not a 26 homer, .284 hitter.  Sorry, now don’t go running back to his family to tell them I said that.  He can still be productive.  Just a bit less so.  2011 Projections:  80/17/.260/60/12

14. Howie Kendrick – I like Posada for the first time ever and now I’m liking Kendrick.  Call an ambulance, you’re about to faint!  Kendrick still seems like a poor man’s Pedroia, but what the eff in the suckhole, there’s value in that.  Get on board, this train’s leaving!  BTW, Outside of deep leagues, you probably will grow hella bored with Kendrick.  A guy whose most exciting category is average can only excite you so much, unless you’re Wee Willie Keeler.  2011 Projections:  65/12/85/.305/15

15. Neil Walker – Aw, and you thought I forgot about Walker.  Reader, please!  Okay, now I’m going to pull back a bit, because I don’t fully trust Walker and his BABIP was on the lucky side and his walks weren’t great and his Ks weren’t either and he’s a Pirate and what does him being a Pirate have to do with anything and should I punctuate this sentence at some point?  Don’t get caught up in the hype. (Ha!  A Pirate hitter hyped?  Pfft.)  Walker is a decent late round flier, but don’t necessarily assume you guys are gonna be BFFs.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.260/7

16. Gordon Beckham – Since he’s only 24-years-old, I’m gonna have to overlook all the stress he caused me last year when he went from totally chic to totally geek.  He started to show signs in the 2nd half (in 171 ABs, 6 home runs and a .310 average).  Some continuation of that progress and he’ll outproduce his draft spot.  There’s still 15 homer power in his mollywhoppers and 10 steal speed in his gams.  2011 Projections:  70/15/60/.285/7

16 1/2. Placido Polanco – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Uribe.  I call this tier, “Skip ‘em.”  There’s a point in every draft where you should just forgo a known commodity and cross your fingers and grab some upside.  This is the point.  I’ve never been a fan of Crapolanco.  If you didn’t know that, welcome to the site.  Click around, I get 1/40th of a penny for every page view.  Blogs make money!  (Note: Polanco got a half because he only has 12 games at 2nd base.)  2011 Projections:  80/8/60/.300/8

17. Martin Prado -  Keep in mind that I kinda wanted to drop Prado even further down this list, but at a certain point I’m risking my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston.  Prado reminds me of Crapolanco without the speed.  Fongool to that.  2011 Projections:  85/12/60/.300/5

18. Ryan Theriot – His stats look nice at the end of the year, but I’ll make a $20 bet with you that in almost all mixed leagues, you will draft Theriot and want to drop him at the first sign of a slump.  Seriously, 20 steals over the course of the year looks okay in October.  When he’s giving you 3 steals per month, you want to kill someone.  2011 Projections:  60/2/30/.275/20

19. Mike Aviles – Last year was a career year and it wasn’t even that good.  Aviles is the new blech.  2011 Projections:  65/8/40/.295/8

20. Juan Uribe – He kinda has better numbers than quite a few of the guys above him, but I couldn’t stand to see Uribe any higher up on the list.  Here’s you drafting Uribe, “I’m smarter than everyone!  He has 20-plus homer power!  I’m going to win my league!”  Here’s you on April 3rd, “Grey, should I drop Uribe?”  Yeah, you should.  2011 Projections:  60/20/75/.240

After the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a bunch of names, but these five stick out:

Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “Fliers!  Or is it flyers?”  Figured I’d end the rankings on a positive note.  And by positive I mean relatively.  You’re pretty deep into a terrible position at this point. I already dropped a Danny Espinosa fantasy on your melon.  Since then, he’s had some hand troubles.  Not a great sign, but he’s a late flier worth taking for upside.  All projections in the flier tier are optimistic, but whatevs.  2011 Projections:  60/15/70/.245/17

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – I already popped my collar on a Tsuyoshi Nishioka fantasy post.  There were only three or four mildly offensive references in that post.  An off day, for sure.  Before you say, “Nishioka in the 10th round!” I say, “Kaz Matsui looked impressive in Japan too.”  2011 Projections:  80/5/45/.290/22

Sean Rodriguez – I already went over my Sean Rodriguez sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.  Rodriguez will probably be a top 7 overall ranked 2nd baseman when the season is over.  Or he’ll be unownable and be dropped by April 5th.  It’s called a flier, people!   2011 Projections:  65/18/75/.245/20

Eric Patterson – Now that Adrian Gonzalez is (a) gone, there’s really no need to look at Padres hitters, except if you’re in a very deep league and you’re dying for some speed (junkie!).  In most leagues, I’d ignore Patterson.  (Note:  He only has 14 games at 2nd base.)  2011 Projections:  60/3/35/.250/20

Eric Young Jr. – Sure, Jose Lopez could steal time, but Young will get his ABs.  At least that’s what I keep telling myself.  I love Eric Young Jr.  I’ll probably talk about him some more before we drop the curtain on this preseason.  First, I really need to see how much playing time the Rockies are going to give him.  Second, who cares about the playing time?  It’s a last round flier that could pay dividends.  Do me a favor and draft him before I have a flippin’ conniption.  My freakin’ forehead vein is about to burst.  You can take an upside hit at middle infield a lot easier than at, say, 1st base.  Even if he only gets 350 ABs, he can get 40 steals.  Like Jeffrey Jones, give a Young man a twirl.  2011 Projections:  65/2/35/.255/40