Fantasy Baseball Advice

That sound you hear is my heart going a pitter patter for Brandon Belt.  That sound you might also hear is Bruce Springsteen on my iTunes.  He’s singing the September 11th Telethon version of My City Of Ruins.  It gives me chills eleven years later.  Now to completely sully that beautiful image, I keep hearing, “Now the sweet veils of fantasy… Drift through the evening news…  Young men at my corner…Like scattered leaves… The boarded up closers… I can’t believe one of the injured closers wasn’t Huston Street… The hustlers and base thieves… My pants are down below my knees… Where’s my Belt?  My team’s in ruins!  My team’s in ruins!  Come on rise up!  I need a Belt.  Come on rise up!  I need my Belt!”  At this point, I don’t care if Belt plays every day, he should be owned IN CASE (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) he plays every day.  He’s capable of great things.  Trust me, if you drop, say, Jason Kubel, you won’t regret it, but if you don’t pick up Belt you may.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Alfredo Aceves – How about we get SAGNOF out of the way right off the bat this week?

Joel Peralta – I just hope this doesn’t turn into a closer Frankenstein named Joel P. HowGeeney.

Matt Thornton – Know what Robin Ventura needs?  A good Nolan Ryan noogie.  I hope Matt Thornton walks away with this job, even if I don’t trust him at all, but for now it’s a closer by committee.  I’d grab Thornton, Jesse Crain, Addison Reed and Hector Santiago, in that order.  Actually, I’d only grab Thornton.  I’m not speculating on four closers on a terrible team, but your straits may be more dire than mine.  Saves for nothing and the chicks for free.

Jim Johnson – As expected, Johnson was named the Orioles closer.  On a related note, my johnson is named, “The closer.”

Brad Lidge – I went over Lidge and HanK-Rod this morning.  It went something like this, “Yadda yadda eeny meeny miney yadda yadda.”  Riveting stuff.  If they gave out Pulitzers for fantasy baseball blogs, I’d be wearing a bunch of those puppies around my neck.  I’d be like the Flavor Flav of blog Pulitzers.

Henry Rodriguez – See 1/8th of an inch above or like 48 inches below to the other post.  Choose your own adventure!

Sean Rodriguez – At shortstop, he could be like Ben Zobrist but as a batting average risk and who doesn’t sound Jewish.  Or Low-BA Nobris.

Rafael Furcal – Looks like your standard Early Bird Special, which is fine for April, but if you show up too late you may have to pay full price for the egg salad sandwich.

Freddy Galvis – Haven’t talked much (if it all) about Galvis.  He’s the Phillie fill-in (kinda stutterer!) for Utley while he recovers from Glass Chipperitis.  Never one to shy away from telling you to pick up a guy about three weeks before everyone else and looking like a complete ass while doing it, I bring you Freddy Galvis.  Last year in Double-A, he had 19 steals in 104 games and 4 more in Triple-A in 33 games.  For a fast guy, he’s pretty egregious at getting on base and might hit under .220, which is, as a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to little people will tell you, no small feat.  If you’re crunched for speed and in a deep league, I’d take a look at him.

Lorenzo Cain – Lo-Cain will get you high without the teeth grinding and you don’t need long fingernails like you’re an old Asian man.

Ryan Sweeney – I baited you this morning to come back to read about Sweeney, and — surprise! — I’m kinda lukewarm on him.  He doesn’t have a ton of power or speed, but he can get you some average over the next month while Crawford is out.  He reminds me of Omar Infante.  Let’s call him, Omar ByMayImmaFinished.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Just went over him this morning.  Use your scrolly finger.

Juan Nicasio – Ma nish ta nitcher.  That’s, “How is this pitcher different than all other pitchers?” for those that don’t know Hebrew.  Nicasio can give 140 Ks and a three and a half ERA over the course of the season, that’s how.

Tommy Milone – Let’s get down to brass tacks!  Or is it brass tactics?  (And while we’re clarifying shizz, is it Tom or Tommy Milone?  What yo’ momma name you, fool?!  You say Tommy?  I say you full of Milone!)  Never the hoo!  You can’t get WHIP help off waivers and every team needs WHIP help unless you drafted Halladay, but then you need hitting help and that’s a whole nutter can of beans.  Yeah, I’m saying nutter instead of another.  Go with it.

Edinson Volquez – Okay, you can get strikeout help late.  Tis is true.  But you can’t get 200 K strikeout help later.  So there’s a nutter thing.

Chris Johnson – Won the Astros’ starting 3rd base gig.  That’s a lower case yay.  He had a huge spring with 5 homers.  That’s a medium case yay that doesn’t really matter anymore.  In deep leagues, you might catch lightning in a bottle out of the gate.  Plus, if you shout his name while in a urinal, you sound like you have a prostate problem.

Juan Francisco – As adults who are trying to sound like teenagers might say, dawg’s got pop for days.  I’d pick him up for a minute until Daddy Hurt Legs returns.

SELL

Jonathan Broxton – He was just named the Royals closer.  You know what?  That’s hella awesome, and I got a tip from Hella Awesome:  SAGNOF!  A basic tenet of SAGNOF! is that closers come and go and some go quicker than others.  Broxton could be fine, and don’t drop him if you lucked out into grabbing him, but, if you need any other piece, Broxton’s value will never get higher.  As soon as he pitches, his value will probably fall.  Act fast, young, premature balding man!

Michael Pineda – You knew better than Grey.  You said, “Grey’s an effin’ jerk with feathered hair, but a really cool mustache.”  I know, you did.  I don’t hate you for it.  But when you drafted Pineda, you done messed up.  You know that, right?  He’s reporting he can play catch.  That’s great news…That you tell the trade partner in your league why he should trade you something for Pineda, before he’s mysteriously shut down again.

Jason Heyward – I know it’s one game.  But I’m scared, y’all.  I think Fredi Gonzalez hates Heyward about as much as he likes to throw Venters.  And Heyward’s been striking out a lot.  He might need a change of venue.  I actually hope I’m wrong here.  I hope I’m reading too much into one game, but something’s up.  He’s far too talented to be hitting 7th, then if Chipper returns and Prado moves to the outfield and Diaz plays, Heyward could sit vs. lefties.   That’s death for his fantasy and potential trade value.  I wouldn’t trade him for a VHS of Mama’s Family blooper reels, but I would explore options.

You smell that?  No, not your armpits.  That’s Opening Day.  The real thing this time!  I love you, you sick, twisted, little game run by an egomaniac with a bad toupee.   I love you!  I want to touch baseball’s boobies!  They are warm to my touch; those beautiful baseball boobies!  I am gushing over baseball’s boobies!  Grey, um, you’re writing this down; this isn’t your inner monologue.  Good call, Random Italicized Voice.  Embarrassing.  Speaking of embarrassing, how about that monstrosity just past the Marlins’ outfield fences?  It’s a passive-aggressive ode to a fan base and city that is loathed by Marlins’ senior management.  “You Marlin fans – all you care about are pretty colors.  You don’t even appreciate the ode to Miro!”  That was what the Marlins president said after he called Marlin fans stupid.  (The last part isn’t a lie.  You can use Google, if you don’t believe me.  I understand; the Internet made me cynical too.  I blame you, Al Gore!)  Oh, that’s all assuming you can see the outfield fences.  Where’d they put the center field fence?  Cuba?  It’s like they combined Petco with AT&T Park.  They have Cuban raftees floating just past the outfield fences.  You got humidity blowing in, fences 28 miles off the coast of Key West, my beautiful Giancarlo Stanton, whose boobies I’d gush over too, and now I got agita.  We should suggest in the comments what to call this pink and aqua-blue hot mess the Marlins call a stadium.  I got one idea, Unicornco.  Anyway, here’s what else happened yesterday in 2012 fantasy baseball:

Matt Holliday – 0-for-5 as he hit third.  Looks like that’s a big Pujols to fill.

Rafael Furcal – 3-for-5, 1 RBI (which isn’t a Ron Ben-Israel) and a steal.  This is something I’ve noticed in my *covers mouth* years covering fantasy baseball.  Old players get off to fast starts.  I think it has to do with them not being tired of the grind of the long season yet.  Their legs are still fresh.  You’ll see, Alfonso Soriano will start the year fast, Torii Hunter will start hot, etc. etc. etc.  There should be a name in the glossary for these old players that start hot.  Suggest in the comments.  Thank you.

David Freese – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs, 1 Run.  A nationally televised game and Freese turns into Babe Ruth.  I will now call you, The Primetime Kid.

Kyle Lohse – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 Ks.  Last year, his April ERA was 1.64 and his May ERA was 2.57.  Okay, so there’s worse flyers for the early months of the season.

Hanley Ramirez – 0-for-4 and looked about as good at third, giving away at least two base hits.  Also, Reyes and Ramirez are really going out of their way to bring in a new Miami crowd.  Miguel Olivo’s probably soooo jealous.

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 4 Ks.  On the bright side, he didn’t get injured.

Andrew Bailey – Underwent successful surgery in Cleveland, then visited the Jock and Skoal Hall of Fame, which features a glob of Lenny Dykstra’s used dip and an extracted mouth lesion from Terry Francona.

Alfredo Aceves – For a man that invented the sandwich wrap, Bobby Valentine is totally crackers.  Yesterday, he announced that Aceves would be the Sawx closer.  Let’s see, a pitcher who would be better in relief is in the rotation (Bard), a pitcher who saved games last year is in middle relief (Melancon) and a pitcher who whined that he wanted to start (Aceves) is the closer.  To recap — Huh, what, oh, okay, wait, what?  Valentine said Aceves would see the save if the Sawx were leading in the first game.  He didn’t say anything about game five or ten or twenty.  It may be needlessly nitpicky, but I think there’s something between the lines there.  Obviously, Aceves is the first one to own right now, but I wouldn’t drop Melancon if you have room.

Kyle Farnsworth – Diagnosed with an elbow strain that’s “not a major concern.”  And I’m getting an elbow strain from making the “jerking off” motion after hearing them say it’s “not a major concern.”  The Rays can spin this any way they like, but a pitcher with an elbow strain in April is a major concern.  I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Peralta, though the Rays are saying they may use a committee.  Is anything done better by committee besides jerk seasoning, which is flavor by committee?

Sean Rodriguez – Named the Rays starting shortstop…. And he’ll probably be benched at least twice a week unless he becomes a hot schmotato.

Jed Lowrie – Astros’ GM said he would wait until Friday to decide on whether or not he was going to DL Lowrie.  Sounds like even the Astros’ GM doesn’t own Lowrie in fantasy.

Devin Mesoraco – Dusty announced Hanigan would be the Opening Day starter.  Well, that stinks, but to take the sting away, Votto is buying a Lamborghini for the first 2,000 fans in attendance.

Hector Santiago – Robin Ventura has still said nothing about who’s the actual closer in Chicago.  This is ridiculous.  The season’s started already, name someone!  No wonder Nolan Ryan beat the crap out of him.  As of right now, I’d go with Matt Thornton, Hector Santiago, Addison Reed and Jesse Crain.  I have little to no confidence in that order.  So, as Al Pacino would scream at me, , “No, those closers are out of order!”

Brandon Belt – When Bochy lifted his giant melon out of bed yesterday, two things were on his mind.  First, I want to make Grey happy by having Brandon Belt make the Opening Day roster.  Second, I wonder if they make back support but for heads.  Can’t help on the second, but thank you and your giant cantaloupe for the first one.  Here’s what I said in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, “If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)”  And that’s me getting very excited about Belt!  He still has great promise for a better tomorrow.  This message was brought to you by the Committee to Elect Grey Albright for Public Office and Stop Whoever Keeps Vandalizing the L Out of the Word Public.

Josh Outman – Hits the DL after he injured himself vomiting.  I thought only the players’ wives got injuries like that.  Anna Benson, “Finally a pitcher who understands me!”

There’s no Reyes, Tulo or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially adventurous, click on the player’s name to read more about them or to see their 2012 projections.  I’m going to start this list of targets at the 141 ADP cut off.  You say, “Arbitrary!”  I say, “Why are you saying arbitrary to a computer screen?  No one can hear you.”  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – Something I didn’t mention in the lede, but did mention in the lede in the 2nd basemen to target post is I am actually targeting these guys for my shortstop spot and not just for my MI.  I tend to punt shortstop, not to the point where I’m looking to draft Ruben Tejada or Robert Andino, but to around 120 overall.  I could have two 2nd basemen (one for 2nd and one for MI) before I start thinking about shortstop.  There’s just very little value to found earlier.  As for Dee Gordon, he could steal 70 bases and it wouldn’t totally shock me.  I don’t think he does, but the fact he could makes him a must target in all leagues.  He’s going at 141 on average at Mock Draft Central (see, it wasn’t that arbitrary).  He could give you Michael Bourn’s stats at shortstop, that’s Bourn who is being drafted almost 100 picks earlier.  (Bee tee dubya, who the eff uses the word lede?  What, I’m a newsie?)

Emilio Bonifacio – Small ball theme going on here.  Maybe we can get Whitey to send Willie McGee to our draft for us.  Would be reminiscent of that deleted scene from Mask when Rocky Dennis goes for sushi and the chef commits seppuku.

Ian Desmond – Why do people hate Ian Desmond?  Better still, why do I like Ian Desmond?  His projections aren’t really much different than Erick Aybar who is being drafted about 150 spots earlier than him.  That’s why I like him.  He’s a cheap 10/20 guy.  Last year he had 25 steals.  That seems about the ceiling, but he could swipe 30 if everything breaks right.  I like that too.  I have his projections down for 70/10/65/.250/22.  If he gets off to a hot start, he could cement his place at the top of the Nats order and my projected counting stats will actually seem low by the end of the year.  I like that a lot.

Zack Cozart – In drafts so far, Cozart is all but an afterthought.  Right now, he’s being drafted around the same spot as players that you shouldn’t ever draft (Derrek Lee, Kurt Suzuki, etc.) or last round catchers (Doumit, Saltymochachino, etc.).  In 2010, Cozart went 17/30 in Triple-A, then was headed that way again last year in Triple-A when he went 7/9 in only 77 games.  When he was promoted to the Reds last year, he hit 2 quick homers in 11 games before going down to Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, which is no longer a concern.  I’ve already begged Rudy to draft Cozart in one league.  I want Cozart in every league.  He is the epitome of a great late round flyer.  If he performs well, he’s better than shortstops being drafted at least 200 spots ahead of him.  If he does poorly, whatever, it’s shortstop, just pick up someone else off waivers.

Alcides Escobar – He stole 26 bases last year and he stole 42 in Triple-A.  If he steps in shizz, he hits .280 and also gives you the same value as Erick Aybar 200 picks later.

Tyler Pastornicky – To answer your question, Random Razzball Commenter, “I like Cozart a lot more than Pastornicky.”  As for your second question, “Yes, Pastornicky sounds like the clergyman that Carmella made out with on The Sopranos.”

Eduardo Nunez – This is a very deep league sleeper.  If you are drafting Nunez, you better be in a league where almost everyone with everyday ABs is already taken.  Now what does Eduardo need to get everyday ABs for himself?  A Jeter or A-Rod injury.  Yeah, those things would never happen!  If Nunez can get 400 ABs, he could get 30 steals.  Definitely worth a shot in AL-Only leagues and very deep mixed ones.

Sean Rodriguez – I’m admittedly down on Sean-Rod this year in the non-sexual way.  He could surprise with 15+ homers and 15+ steals and if it’s gonna happen any year it’ll be this year.  Hey, I just talked myself into not being that down on him… That was easy.  Now let’s see if I can work up some enthusiasm again for Chris Davis.  *scrunches up face, forcing out enthusiasm*  Nope, no enthusiasm, but I did just poop myself.

We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production.  It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious.  It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Robinson Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Ian Kinsler’s projections.

3. Dustin Pedroia – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Dustin Pedroia’s projections.

4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility).  I call this tier, “I see good value.  Draft one.”  This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races.  Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him!   Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie!  I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.”  Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight.  Nothing ever works out for you, huh?  Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose.  (That Twitter feed is a friend’s.  You follow now, thank you.)  Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either.  Or is it eyether?  Let’s call this whole thing off!  Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter.  I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs!  And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song.  (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes.  My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes.  I am the ding dongiest!)  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass.  That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in.  From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more.  His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone.  It points to flukey.  I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290.  It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost.  Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols.  You think someone would’ve talked about that.  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole.  Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention.  That’s how I see things playing out.  Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece.  The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership.  Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again.  Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo.  Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.”  Now what if I said I didn’t agree?  He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless.  Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right.  When he did come back, his speed was fine.  Like he was never hurt.  His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball.  His average was off, but so was his luck.  He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is.  BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble.  I think he knows that too.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues.  To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7 1/2. Michael Cuddyer – Only has 17 games at 2nd base, so he gets a half ranking.  To see Cuddyer’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Weeks.  I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.”  I really don’t like Zobrist.  His stats are just too flaky for my tastes.  One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269.  Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20.  “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!”  That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor.  Thx, btw!  (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx?  Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!)  I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season.  Plus or minus 15 homers and steals.  Yeah, he’s all over the map.  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop!  I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice.  I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before.  Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118.  Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games.  Or maybe that’s the median.  Or the mean.  I don’t know.  What I do know is he can’t stay healthy.  He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson.  I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them.  Even if they might hit .240 collectively.”  At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases.  That’s the good news.  The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases.  The so-so news is it might not be much more of either.  The bad news is he hit .236.  The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral.  The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck.  The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19

11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle.  What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded.  It’s something!  I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him.  You duping devil!  2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15

12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked.  Or just for right now in the rankings.  Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs.  The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school.  Question:  In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287.  In 2009, he hit .224.  In 2010, he hit .284.  In 2011, he hit .222.  What will he hit in 2012?  You know the answer; Brown’s within reach!  You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong.  You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers.  His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable.  2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14

13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ackley.  I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.”  What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland.  In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early.  As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall.  2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12

14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position?  Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair.  All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips.  They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too.  When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed.  Or not.  Simply a theory.  Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo.  That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh?  Hey, Castillo had some good years.  2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30

15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley.  To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far.  He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases.  Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park.  I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12

16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys.  I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.”  Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type.  Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens).  There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year.  Suggest in the comments.  2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15

17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts.  They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!).  But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order.  Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed.  Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me!  2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7

18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is:  Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players?  You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong.  Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen?  Oh, hells no!  Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups.  That’s terrible.  In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop.  By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything.  Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands.  Can’t really weigh chances.  Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5

19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on you again.  I’m good at displacing blame.”  Bill James still believes.  He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4.  Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant.  He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season.  I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything.  Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago.  That’s nice, have fun!  2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3

20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay.  Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts.  2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:

Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30.  Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere.  If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato.  2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5

Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn.  Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice.  The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age.  Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April.  If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something.  His K-rate tells me he probably won’t.  2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10

Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.”  When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that.  In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed.  I’ve seen worse.  You feel me?!  If you do, could you stop?  I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value.  Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr.  2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

The man who looks like the man from Man Vs. Food’s father, Lance Berkman, is on a ginormous Kaiser roll.   Speaking of pastry, it’s not a coincidence that Lance Berkman’s initials are LB.  When he got to St. Louis, he asked the cabbie where the second arch is and why isn’t it painted gold.  If you think you have 2010 Konerko, you might.  But you also might have the 2011 Berkman, which isn’t nearly the player the 2006 Berkman was.  For Berkman, this is either a great month or it’s the beginning of a great year.  When dealing with a player on the downside of his career, I invariably go with the former, if the former is the first one where I think it’s just a great month.  At least when he was on the Astros, they could just play him at 1B so he didn’t injure himself in the OF.  It’ll take an apocalyptic event for that to happen in St. Louis.  I’d see if I could get someone to overpay believing this is the beginning of the beginning not the beginning of the end.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Ryan Theriot – He’s like a non-Aybar, Erick Aybar.

Danny Espinosa – You know I kept getting questions about Espinosa in the comments and I never put it together that he wasn’t owned in that many leagues.  In ESPN leagues, he’s only owned in 13% of leagues?  Huh?  He’s going to be a top 12 2nd baseman.  Sure, that’s like being the soberest Irishman, but still.  Here’s a refresher on my Espinosa fantasy.  I wrote that post in a hammock in Pago Pago and a homing pigeon delivered it back to Razzball HQ.

Darwin Barney – I have a confession to make.  The middle infidel who loves dinosaurs is on two of my teams.  So far, those teams aren’t doing well, but there ya go.

Jed Lowrie – You know what P. Diddy & Dirty Money would say about Jed, “‘Ain’t No Stopping Us Now,’ that’s Lowrie’s song.”

Aaron Harang – Know what I like a whole lot?  Chilled glasses.  And Hodgepadres.

Tyson Ross – I’ll know how deep the leagues are that should grab him after today’s start.  “To be continued…” as said by Vincent Price.

Alexi Ogando – Yes, the start in The House They Built Next To The House Ruth Built wasn’t pretty, but you gotta give him a little more leash than that.

Justin Masterson – I like Masterson.  You can search the site for info on him.  On sorta his last name’s subject, what do people think of a Razzball t-shirt that reads, “Fantasy Baseball, Something To Do Between Masturbation Sessions?”

Scott Baker – Rudy said earlier today he’d prefer Baker to Liriano.  That hurts me soul to read, Lupe Fiasco.  But if you’re eating what Rudy’s cooking…. Or is that baking?

Matt Capps – “He ain’t no handcuff, he’s the hand closer, essa.”  Said a’la Edward James Olmos.  Not entirely sure why Edward James Olmos is saying that but my family is in town for the holiday and they’re making me a little daffy.

Mitchell Boggs – After Boggs’ save, he rode a horse around Yankee Stadium and ate fried chicken out of Margo Adams’ bosom… You know, I think I’m clicking on the wrong Wikipedia page– I am!  Okay, Mitchell Boggs got the save and could get more.  Worth the pick up but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be the go-to guy.  We’re dealing with La Russa, after all.

Jon Rauch – SAGNOF!

Frank Francisco – SAGNOF²!

Kyle Farnsworth – Doing pretty well and is owned in only 41% of ESPN leagues, but since 60% ESPN leagues are already abandoned that’s 101% of leagues owning Farnsworth, so surely he’s taken in your league.  And don’t call me, Shirley.

David Freese – Liked him last week and this week it’s just 7 days later, which sounds like lyrics for a country song.

Mark Trumbo – Well, you can get on board until Kendrys returns, right?

Danny Valencia – Sounds like the name of a dancer on Dancing with the Stars that gets stucked with Loni Anderson or somebody.  “Valencia just roped a single down the line and… What’s this?  He’s salsa dancing to first.  Wow!”  Valencia’s kinda bleh but he’s currently hitting.

Jeff Francoeur – I liked our Tuesday afternoon post that talked about Frenchy.  Wasn’t bad, right?  (I also liked Monday, Wednesday and Thursday’s.)  But I feel like mentioning Jeff not simply because he’s hit a few Freedom Flies so far this year, but because there was something between the lines at that post that had to do with having Frenchy for the whole season.  Talking about what he’s going to do all year.  That’s cool, I get it, but let’s not forget he’s a fifth outfielder.  Get on board now and worry about that rest of the season shizz later.  If you get a solid 2 weeks from him then someone better comes along, what Frenchy does in August doesn’t matter.  And, for what it’s Wuertz, the French take August off. (And you thought I couldn’t write hundred words about Frenchy… Ha!)

Matt Joyce – Hitting almost .500 over the last week.  Now you’re getting your acclaims, Joyce.

Jerry Sands – Like Rudy this morning, I too thought Jerry was black.  Who knew he was like the Caribbean and white Sands?  Any the hoo!  I just went over my Sands fantasy.  I wrote it while standing on the Las Vegas Strip smacking escort flyers into my hand.

Peter Bourjos – Similarly to Espinosa, sometimes I think people read Razzball every day and retain all this shizz, so when I get questions about Bourjos it confuses me.  Do I like him?  Since January.

SELL

Ike Davis – I’m not saying to drop him (well, in some leagues maybe), but I’d definitely look to see if I could get anything in a trade for him after last night’s homer.

Sean Rodriguez – Yeah, I pushed him on people in the preseason, but garbage calls on Tuesday to have Sean-Rod picked up.

Alex Gordon – Our on-again, off-again romance lasted for five years (and felt like 45 years, as that sentence seemed to read) and as soon as he started to show signs that he liked me, I want no part of him.  I’m such a girl!  His walk rate is at 3.8%, K-rate is near 20%, his BABIP is at .426, he’s hitting well but his average will plummet to .275 at some point.  When he’s hitting .275 and has 17 homer power and 12 steal speed, he won’t look half as pretty.  I wouldn’t sell him for a Nicki Minaj record, but I would explore my trade options.