Something many of you don’t realize, but one of the first people to talk to a player that was just traded is his new team’s tailor. The Yankees tailor got on the phone with Chase Headley to find out what size jersey he wears, and Headley looked down, beaming to be out of Petco, and said, “Giuseppe, you might want to take out my inseam too.” I wonder if the flowers smelled a little better as Headley stepped into Yankee Stadium for the first time. Sure, in contrast to his hour long ride through the Bronx, getting lost in Hunts Point, anything would smell better, but it can’t be worse, can it? His career in away games prorated over a 162 game season is: 79/19/79/.286/14. Doode’s David Wright! Well, almost. Which is sad for Headley and Wright. More sad for Wright. What a guy does in only half a season can be anywhere from bupkis to I-want-to-bump-grind-and-kiss. Will Headley suddenly be mixed league worthy? Yeah, for at least a flyer, if nothing else. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Happy 4th of July weekend, my all-American Razzballers (and two foreign readers). It was in the greatest breakup letter ever penned that our Founding Fathers said, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. ‘Murica, f*** yeah!” John Hancock then signed with a big “Ef you very much”. Ben Franklin downed his thirteenth pint of ale (“one for each State”, he slurred) and Thomas Jefferson hurried home to “check on the help”. As we Razzballin’ scribes gather on this holiday weekend in the Razzball Lounge for some grillin’ and chillin’ and a little bottle rocket firin’ at the guys from YAHOO!, it’s important to remember that if it wasn’t for those wig wearing patriots we’d all be driving on the wrong side of the road and playing fantasy cricket! Don’t tread on me and don’t stare directly at Tehol’s red, white and blue thong. This week in the lounge we’re talking some deep league jams and crams. With the season half over, the player pool has gotten shallow in most RCL’s and that requires us to take some chances, play some matchups and maximize at-bats in order to move up in the standings. While our leaguemates are snoozing with a belly full of hot dogs and Miller High Life, let’s make like George Washington crossing the Delaware and kill the competition while they sleep. It’s time to jam it or cram it.
If you’re looking for some more deep league talk and jams and crams, check out Razzball Radio.
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hello DK’ers, I’m glad to be back after my Brazilian excursion to get as hairless as possible. I’m trying to break into dancing like our boss Grey, or was that break dancing? Either way, the man has moves like Sam Rockwell. If there was a competition between us, it would look something like this. To this day, that still cracks me up. Sorry reader, I really need to get back to this drivel thing and in case you were wondering I am Barney in the video. I can’t help myself today, with Matt Shoemaker taking the hill, I get transported back to my favorite movie ever, Goodfellas! That’s right, I said that; Goodfellas is my all time favorite movie. You got a problem with that? In case you didn’t know, The Departed was the “I’m sorry we screwed up so we’ll give you one for an inferior movie Oscar” for Martin Scorcese. Why do I keep getting sidetracked? Dah!!! This scene (NSFW) is one of my favorites among many brilliant moments in that 1990 classic. I remember being in high school and sneaking into see this R rated flick because our local theater was unwavering on the 17 and over policy. I could go on and on about Goodfellas but I need to write about Matt Shoemaker and his low low price tag of $6,800 today. He’s been solid as a starter since moving out of the bullpen and has even posted a 10K game. Getting to face the team with the worst K-rate in the game, 23.3%, isn’t too shabby either. But here is the takeaway for him – he has a 2.54 ERA at home compared to a 6.66 on the road, devil arm! That’s good enough for me. You can choose to pay the high price tags of Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, or Max Scherzer and then compliment one of them with Shoemaker to leave you some extra dollars for bats.
Yesterday, the Guru talked strategy and I agree with him that you got to look at all the nerdy numbers but sometimes I think you need to go with your gut. Whether it’s the hot hand like Steve Pearce or someone due like Jay Bruce you need to take chances when you have limited dollars on the table. Like Guru, I have been on both ends of the batter vs. pitcher stats and all I can say is it’s just the numbers, the numbers ala Jimmy Two Times. Don’t lose your mind! But before I continue on I want to give a little B vs P advice that has worked well for me. Look at the K’s vs. the pitcher, when I have a guy that K’s a lot or doesn’t walk vs. a pitcher I generally stay away. That’s just me and my way to go about it. Sometimes you will see a batter who is 0 for 4 against someone but has 4 walks. I get interested when I see that and like the chance that a hit is coming soon. And now on to my DraftKings picks for today.Please, blog, may I have some more?
What’s the mood, doode? How ya’ feelin’? Why is it all real G’s drop their G’s on their gerunds? G-dropping as non-G’s call it. That keeps me up at night. Failing to rank at first Tyson Ross in my top 100 starters doesn’t. It was a mistake on my part, and I corrected it before we got out of February. I ranked him. Snafu less afu’d than it could’ve been. I still probably didn’t rank him high enough. They have no award for that. Trophies, trophies. This is like Gangsta Deep Thoughts on Def Poetry Jam. Stop me from going up like a crescendo. This is not a love song. This is “What Tyson Ross has done so far this year” song. That is not as catchy. They don’t play that on KDay. His ERA is at 2.93 after a complete game shutout where he struck out 9 and only allowed 3 baserunners. His K-rate is 8.6, walk rate is 3.2 and xFIP is 3.16. Clap, pause for a sip of Olde E, clap. I paused for a sip of the brew on his walk rate, if you’re uptake is slow. His away ERA is 4.18. Well, you had me convinced you were more than a Hodgepadre there for a moment. Nice trick, Copperfield. Ross is owned in 51% of ESPN leagues, which is stoopid, but since I only own 12,000 ESPN teams to collect some software. Virtual trophies, virtual trophies. I can only do so much. Yes, he should be owned, but he’s a lot safer in Petco. No dur. And I bow. And I just hit my head on my desk. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
How old do you have to be to get the title? I’m gonna guess at least over 30. Clearly I’m dating myself…no I don’t mean that in a narcissistic way, I’m simply claiming old-fogeyness over here. I say that because I want a simple raising of the hands: how many of you knew the singer/rapper of Rico Suave wasn’t actually Rico Suave but in fact Gerardo? Mmm-hmm, go ahead and put your hand down, I can see you still have pimples. You too, I can tell you can’t legally drink a beer by your One Direction t-shirt. It’s ok, you aren’t going to impress me by knowing, though you COULD impress me by having better musical taste. Don’t go laughing at Gerardo and hum ‘What Makes You Beautiful’ with the same mouth, kiddo. I just wanted a feel for how close I am to cultural irrelevance and know now I’m at death’s door. Duly noted. If you think our pal JFOH wouldn’t make the same old musical reference well…you don’t know JFOH. Yes, I’m subbing in for our resident hater as he told me he was gonna go do something in Brazil this weekend. Something about blowouts and waxes, I think. But yeah, you don’t care about my impending demise, a bad rap song from the early 90s, or JFOH’s hair stylings, you came to talk creeper and it’s high time we get to it. So let’s keep with what the title tells me we should talk about and look at why Eugenio Suarez is a solid pick up for week 14 of the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season…Please, blog, may I have some more?
There aren’t many things you need to know about me. However, when something in my personal life conflicts with my ability to provide you with unrivaled fantasy advice, then what’s my business becomes our business. Our business is that I’m in that glorious for some, and miserable for others abeyance between graduating college and commencing my tenure as an employed person. Instead of lamenting during this transitional phase, I’ll be spending the next few weeks on a Euro-trip beginning in Copenhagen and continuing through Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Munich, and Amsterdam [Jay's Note: Niiiiiiiiiiice.] before finally flying out of Paris July 9th. Needless to say, I likely won’t find the time to sit down and write one of these articles during this prolonged muck-fest. Hopefully you’ve gained the tools to maximize you’re lineups yourselves, because you are own your own the next month or so. If anyone has any advice for such a journey or any hotspots I should check out, feel free to share in the comments. [Jay's Note: Red Light District.]Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, Carlos Santana went 0-for-5 with 1 RBI. He could’ve hit six homers yesterday and still only had one RBI, because the guy in front of him said to the media, “By the power vested in me in the state of Cleveland — is this a state? — I now pronounce myself Lonnie Gonnie. I will now release an album that will be critically drubbed, but the masses will enjoy it called, ‘Lonnie Went Gonnie.’ Then the straight-to-DVD movies I star in will be reprisals of the Ernest movies, but with Lonnie in the title. For example, ‘Lonnie Goes To Africa’ or ‘Lonnie Goes to Jail.’ Is there any questions for Lonnie Gonnie? No? Good, because I got homers to hit and ribbies to eat and average to drive up the wazoo like I’m a wazoo driving machine.” Yesterday, Lonnie Chisenhall went H.A.M then damn, then come again, ma’am. Three homers (5, 6, 7), nine RBIs, and raised his average up to .385 while going 5-for-5. That’s a career .265 hitter. Zoinks! He’s probably going to remember who he really is at some point soon, but ride the lightning while Lonnie’s rocking out. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Speaking generally, more than just to help you maximize your lineup’s potential, my plan for this column is also to use it to start discussions over whatever enters my mind about fantasy baseball. Things like the pros and cons of Yahoo vs Espn vs other fantasy service providers, developing a model to predict which relievers will pitch on a given day, or which players will benefit from upcoming interleague play like Corey Dickerson is right now. I got things on my mind is all I’m saying, but for now those will stay there since I’ve got an hour before a friends grad party and this has to be submitted. Down to business!
Last Time & Season Results
Last Article: 21 AB, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB, .333 AVG
Overall (per game): 0.3 R, 0.0 HR, 0.2 RBI, 0.0 SB, .270 AVG
Although my recs are still light on the counting stats, at least they picked up plenty of hits, led by Oswaldo Arcia‘s 3-for-5 night. I can’t control whether people are on base, at least not yet! Hopefully a few of you gave Arcia the ol’ scoop in your leagues; he looks like he’ll be productive fruit going forward. Overall on the season my guys are batting a smooth .270, higher than most of your regular’s averages I’d presume.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Over the off-season Rudy laid out his argument for why it’s important to maximize at-bats in fantasy leagues with daily moves (like the RCL ones). Even if the mathematical proof don’t resonate with you, there’s no denying the good vibes generated from streaming a hitter for a night and getting even just a 1-for-4 line with a run. Don’t know that feeling? Seriously, loosen up man. Do something crazy. Get black AND pinto beans on your next Chipotle burrito. Pay extra for guac. Add Mike Carp for a night. Just one.
The only downside to this strategy is time. The time it takes to sort through the options and decide who to add and who to drop. Razzball offers tools like Hitter-Tron and Stream-o-Nator to help speed up the process, but even then you have to scroll through its table to find who is available, make sure he will actually play, the game won’t be rained out, etc. For those of you with a wife, two kids, and a job, I get it. It’s tough being a loving father and winning fantasy manager.
I have no wife and zero kids so what I’m offering is to add meaning to my life and do some of that work for you. What I’ll do is scroll through Hitter-Tron, find the best players that are mostly unowned and likely to start, and present them here in an easily digestible format. My plan is to do this every Sunday and Wednesday so you can fill out your lineup on Mondays and Thursdays (the days when teams have off days and you’ll need to stream guys). Sound good? You’re not sure? Whatever, I’m not you trying to convince your girlfriend to try anal. It won’t hurt to do it once.Please, blog, may I have some more?