Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day I went over the top 20 starters for 2008, but, as with the top 20 outfielders for 2008 going to 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, I’ll also be going through the top 21 - 40 starters for 2008. This is after going through the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen. All of these rankings are based on the ESPN Player Rater, which sometimes smells of Muenster cheese, but I want Swiss-like neutrality when comparing my preseason predictions with final numbers. For the best player rater, download our Razzball fantasy baseball player rater. (How’s that for neutrality!) Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. Jon Lester - Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy - In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer - Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett - So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly - It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke - Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders - 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks - Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd - Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker - His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett - The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche - In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson - You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer - A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle - Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum - Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey - Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer - (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

Some rejected titles, Will Bill Still Thrill on the Hill?, Illy Billy, Wagner’s Closed, You Can’t Spell Duaner Sanchez Without Nude Ranch and my personal favorite, Billy Wagner, Act Your Age. Billy Wagner, the Mets closer and guy with the first name Billy, reports tightness in his shoulder. He was scheduled to have an MRI, but Billy’s scared of whatever MRI stands for. (Imaging something, but I’m doing this late on a Monday night, so you’re gonna have to bear with me. Or bare with me on a Nude Ranch. Rawrr!) Duaner Sanchez will probably fill-in for Wagner if he misses time. Heilman would be second in command. After that, coin flip! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada - To the DL. Might be out for the year. Keep a close eye on this. (Oops, I meant to write, “Keep a closed eye on this.”)

Clayton Kershaw - He’s back and going against the Rockies on Tuesday. If you’re thinking about grabbing him, here’s the yay or nay list. I’d prefer Campillo, Weeks, Kobayashi, Kuroda, Wolf (at home) and Hermida over Kershaw. I want Kershaw over Olsen, Eveland, Edwin Jackson, any A’s or Mariners hitter except Ichiro, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jobacum. Finally, I possibly want Kershaw over Guthrie depending on how Guthrie looks in his next start. He was not good in last year’s 2nd half and his leash is short, as they say in the zoology.

Luis Ayala - I’ve pretty much ignored the Fuentes trade rumors because I don’t think the Rockies are out of the division race and I don’t think they’re moving Fuentes. On the other hand, Rauch should be traded. I’ve picked up Ayala in a few leagues as I await the news.

Jose Valverde - 6 ER in 1/3 of an inning. Brandon Lyon, “Man, he sucks!”

Brett Myers - Soda Popinski is back. I’d take Kershaw over him.

Rickie Weeks - HR yesterday. He looks like a 25-year-old Ray Durham.

Randy Wolf - I kinda wanted to make this the lead for today’s post, but I couldn’t justify it. So the Astros are in discussions to acquire Randy Wolf, the pride of Canoga Park, CA. Seriously, you can’t make this shizz up. Randy Wolf, of a 6.63 road ERA is who the Astros want to acquire. Randy Wolf, of an almost 5.00 ERA in Minute Maid Park over the last three years. Randy Wolf, the guy who fantasy baseball owners know to sit in road games is who the Astros are going after. The Astros, who are 12 games back. Why are the Astros even going after someone? Why Randy Wolf?! I have to move on before this gives me a logic tumor.

Scott Kazmir - 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks. I hope he keeps it up; I just don’t think he will.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 10 Ks. Kazmir vs. Harden in The Series…. of Injuries.

Kip Wells - In our Razzball league, where I’m currently in last 1st (I think. There’s an at-bat minimum that Yahoo doesn’t factor in, so the standings aren’t always accurate.), I forgot to move Kip Wells into my lineup.  Sonavabench! He only pitched a third of an inning and he gave up 7 ER. 189.00 ERA, 24.00 WHIP. This is the equivalent of having a 24 inning perfect game on your bench. Or a Marcus Thames 17 home run game on your bench. I so wanna bang my head into a moving car.

Miguel Cabrera - 5-for-6. Now at .290, he will end the season at .320. You do the math!

Matt Joyce - When I saw the Tigers scored 19, I knew the man with the smarty-pants sounding name had to get at least 3 RBIs. He got 5 and went 4-for-6. Matt Joyce was just named the Player of the Week and is on the business end side of the platoon when Mags pushes him.

Jon Lester - Held the Mariners scoreless through 7 1/3 innings as Lester drove them McNulty.

Troy Tulowitzki - 4-for-4. Now he just needs to go 146 for his next 146 and he’ll salvage his season.

Robinson Cano - Why don’t the Yankees send him to Winter Ball so he thinks April is the middle of the season?

I’m not going to debate anyone on Kazmir’s brilliance. He’s brilliant. I realize that. You realize that. We agree. See that. But he’s not going to make it through the season. Just as I told you about the Glass Chipper yesterday, I’m telling you the same shizz today. Do his numbers matter from yesterday’s game? Not in the least. If someone believes he’s turned the injury corner and trucking down healthy highway, trade Kazmir to them for a quality hitter. Don’t trade him for Jason Bartlett and a Teletubbie DVD. Be reasonable! This is not rocket science. This is fantasy baseball. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s verbiage (Word of the Day), go check out Greener’s new site, Fantasyphenoms.com. It’s all new and flashy. (Not flashy like Macromedia’s downloadable spyware crizz-ap. I mean, blingy and cool.) Their site is informational and… Well, check it out.

Ryan Howard - I begged everyone to go grab him for the last three weeks. I told you here and here in just the last week. (Hmm, maybe I should stop talking about him.) Anyway, now it’s too late.

Shane Victorino - The Hawaiian is flying.

Chad Billingsley - I’ve been accused of favoring NL pitchers. Yeah, so.

Chipper Jones - Glass Chipper didn’t start last night because of a tweaked groin. Maybe I jinxed him or maybe it’s the last 700 games of his career trends just coming true. You make the call.

Art Shamsky - Looks just like Tommy Lee Jones. You’re welcome, Mets fans.

Dmitri Young - The Meathook’s back and No-Jo is injured and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Nick Johnson is like that girl that wouldn’t sleep with you for, like, 6 months, then on your 6 month anniversary she told you to wait a few more months, then on your two year anniversary, she went on the DL. You wait, you wait and nothing. That’s Nick Johnson.

Adam LaRoche - He’s not an ApRil player or a high aveRage player or… Well, he has his dRawbacks, but he can hit 30 home runs.

Jay Bruce - Patterson might be benched, Griffey or Dunn might be moved soon. (Not that anyone can really move Dunn, except for Dunn. And he doesn’t move himself for anything less than sixteen hamburgers, a large fry and three apple pies.)

Santiago Casilla - Left the game with an apparent arm injury. You don’t need a middle reliever with an arm problem. Oh, well. He was having a nice year, but you gotta let him go.

Matt Joyce - Sure, he sounds like an 18th Century poet, but he should be platooned in against righties on all deep teams.

Masa Kobayashi - Will probably be the closer for the next two weeks.

Joe Borowski - Will probably be the closer by the end of the month. Way to run with the ball, Betancourt!

Ryan Franklin - Officially replaced Isringhausen for now. With Izzy going on the DL, which is code for get your shizz together with Dave Duncan.

Pedro Feliz - Peter Happy is streaky and he just hit a home run and another ball that should’ve been a home run, but was a single — don’t ask.

John Smoltz - He can be very valuable in the bullpen and can get saves. So if you need saves, stop reading. If you wanted Smoltz as your front line starter and don’t need a closer, then you should trade him quickly before he comes back just in case he has more arm problems. Right now, everyone’s thinking he can succeed as a closer as he did before. He might, but he’s 41 and it’s been a few seasons since the last time he pitched in the ninth and on consecutive days.

Chuck James - My name is Chuck James and I have a can’t-pitch-effectively problem.

Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Taylor Buchholz - Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.

Aaron Laffey - Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.

Mike Jacobs - I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.

Nick Markakis - Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.

Kenny Rogers - Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!

Joe Saunders - Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.

Carlos Ruiz - Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.

Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.

Melky Cabrera - Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.

Robinson Cano - Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.

German Duran - Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.

Jack Cust - Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.

Chone Figgins - Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.

Ian Stewart - I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?

Tony Pena Jr. - Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start.  Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.

Scott Kazmir - Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.

Mike Cameron - Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.

Eric Gagne - Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!

Hunter Pence - I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.

Greg Smith - At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.

Aaron Cook - I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.

Ryan Zimmerman - Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.

Evan Longoria - I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.

Tim Redding - If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.

Lackey, Beckett and Kazmir are currently fighting injury. Lackey’s looks like it will hold him out until mid-May. Kazmir was recently scratched from making his first spring training start due to a lack of arm strength. Beckett… Well, Beckett was oft-injured up until last year. Blisters preliminarily, but hardly a model of good health. What does this mean for fantasy? It means don’t draft them unless they fall way down in your draft. The amount of risk involved with drafting a starter with an arm injury isn’t worth it. Sure, the season is long and by June both of these guys may be okay, but why risk it? There’s a chance that these spring training arm injuries will be a sign of things to come. This is one of the biggest reasons why I like to draft mid- to late-March. If you drafted Lackey last week (I put him on my short list for AL Cy Young contenders and placed him very high (for an AL pitcher) on my top 100), it’s just crappy luck. If you draft later in spring training, luck is removed from the equation. And skill remains. As for…

Homer Bailey. He’s 21 years-old. As Dusty Baker is not someone you want managing your pitching staff, inexperienced pitchers are not something you want on your team. If you’re in an NL-only keeper, I could understand taking a flier. Everyone else, wait until he’s called up from the minors or next year. So who does get the Reds rotation spot?

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto.  Let’s look at what our favorite ESPN “analyst,” Eric Karabell, said, :”…Volquez who is past prospect status…” Edinson is 23 and averaged over 9 Ks per 9 innings in the minors. Granted, he is (or was) a bit wild. Later in the same piece, Karabell said Cueto was a prospect to watch. Cueto is 22 and averaged almost exactly the the same K/9, but does walk less people. If anyone knows what Karabell is talking about, please do share. Anyway, grab Volquez and/or Cueto in late rounds in your NL-only and even deep mixed leagues. Rookies that can strikeout people are very valuable their first time through the league.