Fantasy Baseball Advice

It has not been a good year for the Joneses. Jacques Jones is headed for retirement, Marion Jones went to jail and Ed “Too Tall” Jones banged his head on a doorway. And none of them will even acknowledge their brother from a white mother, Todd Jones, who was offcially replaced as closer on Sunday. I know what you’re saying, “But Todd Jones had just under a 3 K/9 ratio! Life’s unfair!” Yup, it sure is for everyone but Fernando Rodney, who Leyland announced would take over the Tiger’s closer job. (Leyland also announced he’s returning to filtered cigarettes now that Jones is gone.) Do I think it will last with Rodney? Sure, unless the Tigers trade for Fuentes or Street. Fuentes has closing experience, but Rodney can be just as dominant. Street has experience, and is just as injury prone as Rodney. So six of one, half dozen of another. Also, Zumaya is not without his issues as he had right triceps tightness and had to leave Sunday’s game. As for Todd Jones, drop him. He was useless when he had the job. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Grabow - Gave up 2 home runs yesterday. I still think he’s first in line for saves, but he could be traded too (or just not covert any saves or just not get any saves to convert). You might need to look at Tyler Yates and Denny Bautista, as well. Honestly, I grabbed Grabow and that’s as deep as I’m going for Pirates saves. These other schmohawks are not being picked up by me, except in the deepest of leagues where I really need saves.

Brian McCann - Out with a mild concussion from The Flying Hawaiian going all Tonga Kid on McCann and giving him a flying headbutt.

Shane Victorino - HR yesterday. Now has 8 HRs (Alexis Rios has 8 HRs, as well).

Billy Butler - Doesn’t he sound like a character from Clue? It was Billy Butler with the candlestick in the library. Anyway, since the All-Star break, Butler has 4 HRs, 14 RBIs and 2 moobs.

Jack Cust - HR yesterday. Will now hit three HRs this week, walk seven times and strikeout ten times. Hot week ahead!

Eric Chavez - He says he could be done as a third basemen. He could’ve said this in 2006.

Manny Ramirez - Says he’ll accept a trade out of Boston. They should trade him to the Nationals and then see how quickly he accepts. Honestly, I couldn’t believe the amount of people falling for Manny’s shizz back in March when everyone was saying Manny’s going to have a career year because of a contract. In December of 2007, I said Manny’s done trying. He’s been done. It’s fine. I just wish people would stop falling for the same nonsense.  Now I know it’s against a high-ranking baseball commandment to say anything against Gammons, but he was even reporting about Manny’s off-season conditioning. Listen, Manny’s off-season conditioning involves Xbox, Chuck E. Cheese and Mama’s Family DVDs.

Nomar Garciaparra - Left the game with knee irritation. After the game, Nomar said he might have injured his knee the previous night when he forgot the safety word with Mia.

Mike Jacobs/Derrek Lee - 22 HRs/60 RBIs and 17 HRs/63 RBIs, respectively. Granted, Lee (Buffalo) is not the negative on average like Jacobs, but Lee is only batting .296. Cust kayin’.

Scott Hairston - 17th HR yesterday. Later this week his bro, Jerry, returns. The brother battle between the Hairstons and the Uptons is almost as lopsided as The Von Erichs and The Bushwackers.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Besides having one of the best first names in baseball, he also put together a solid July. Last year, he had a solid July then got progressively worse as the year went on. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Johan Santana - 7th career complete game. CC Sabathia almost had 7 complete games in July.

Hank Blalock - 2-for-3 and he’s going back to Texas. If he can stay healthy (Yes, that’s a big if. BTW, how come people don’t say it’s a small if something is very probable? Like, “I guess we’ll get donuts if Dunkin’ Donuts, a store that never closes, is open. Yes, that’s a small if.”), Blalock could be in for a big week.

Jeff Samardzija - Got the save yesterday after Marmol threw 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. I suppose he could get more saves if Wood continues to have blister problems, but I think Marmol will out-save him 4 to 1 and if Wood’s out-saving Marmol… Well, you get my drift.

Clayton Kershaw - Got his first major league win. The only thing is, I would start just about anyone at Dodgers Stadium against the Nats.

Marcus Thames - Got one hit yesterday. Guess what it was? Okay, so you platoon Thames and Joyce just like Leyland is doing. They’ll probably hit 45 HRs combined. What, you don’t want 45 HRs?

Javier Vazquez - Was roughed up again on Sunday. It’s of little consolation to his owners (which I’m not, suckas!), but Vazquez’s K rate is fine and his BABIP is at .335, which means he’s been unlucky — sorta like his owners, which I’m not, suckas!

Kyle Lohse - Drop the H.

Brad Ziegler - Set major league rookie record with 27 scoreless innings to start a career. Interesting factoid, he hasn’t given up a home run since he switched to pitching sidearm, 128 1/3 innings ago. Uninteresting factoid, his Mom’s name is Beth.

I can picture Tim Kurkjian’s voice cracking, Is this a Great Game, or What?!. Joe Morgan won’t be invited. Bill James will throw out the first pitch. A nickname like Baseball Crank will be worn as a badge of honor. Someone will argue that Pat Burrell isn’t really that bad of a baseball player and make a perfectly logical argument. Everyone will be wearing a lazy frown yet be completely happy. So why does Santana start the All-Star Game in our world instead of in The Real World where he wasn’t even invited? (Not The Real World: Hollywood, which lost two key members of its cast, and now sputters towards a reunion.) Quality Starts this year: Haren, Hudson and Lincecum are tied for first with 15. Santana (it’s safe to say Santana would’ve got another QS last night if not for rain) is #2 with 14. Webb and Volquez win the bronze with 13. Yet, Haren and Santana are tied for 15th in wins with 8. Listen to some with 10 wins — Lohse, Nolasco, Cook, Padilla, Floyd (not Bannister) and, of course, Andy Sonnanstine. Okay, but what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Everything, you schmohawk! If any potential trade partner thinks any of those guys gets to twenty wins, then you politely agree and rob them blind. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dustin McGowan - Placed on the McDL. I’d look McElsewhere. He’ll be an interesting sleeper (as they say in the biz, whatever biz this is) next spring.

Scott Linebrink - It was annonced he would fill-in for closer. So, of course, Dotel got the save. Yeah, that works. Thanks. If I was looking for a few saves, Dotel would now be the man I’d target.

Ryan Spilborghs - To the DL with an oblique strain. Doctor, I have an oblique problem. Well, Ryan, why don’t you just be more specific? Oofa!

Derek Lowe - Almost pitched a perfect game. Sounds like Alyssa Milano’s giving herpes to someone tonight.

Scott Hairston - HR yesterday. Guess how many he has. Go ahead. I’ll wait. Wrong! 14. You ready for a double dose of brain freeze? You would’ve got better production if you drafted the Hairstons instead of the Uptons. Ow, my temples hurt! Wait, here comes the knuckler — ESPN: The Magazine should’ve featured the Hairston brothers on their baseball issue instead of the Uptons. Stop, Grey, my eyes are bleeding from these sentences that make no sense!

Moises Alou - Still battling nicks and crannies. Probably has something to do with him being 84-years-old and older than his father.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Jonathan Sanchez - Got a tough break when the rain came and forced his start to get cut short. He could’ve went another two innings. Or not! What am I, psychic?

Carlos Quentin - 2 HRs. I see no reason why he can’t hit 5 home runs a month from now until the end of the year aka 35 HRs total also also known as 14 more HRs.

Garrett Atkins - 2 HRs. Now has 14 on the year, I say he ends with 27. That’s less than most think, making him a Buy Low of Moderate Proportions.

Mark Mulder - In the forums, Peter had this to say, “Mulder recorded one out in the top of the 1st, walked 2, then left the game with an injury…. On the bright side, neither of the runners scored… so it is arguably Mulder’s most effective start since May 17, 2006.” It’s funny, because it’s true.

Josh Hamilton - He gets high on K-Rod’s supply.

Juan Rivera - Hit his third home run and this is officially the last time I will mention him. Some other guys I officially stopped talking about this season are Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Dioner Navarro, Shane Victorino, Eugenio Velez… Okay, they weren’t all gems. (BTW, Velez just got recalled and Bochy said something like this (I don’t feel like looking up the exact quote), “Velez might get to pinch run, but that’s about it.” Seriously, he said something like that. Ouch, right? What? Without the actual quote it loses its oomph? You look it up then.)

Lance Berkman - 2 steals, now 14 on the year. Berkman is making a strong case for Fantasy MVP, if they gave out an award for that shizz. His numbers so far 76/22/70/.348/14. He will absolutely kill some fantasy owners next year when he’s drafted too early.

Jeff Francoeur - You ride out Player A for three months through the worst slump of their career, then you drop Player A on Friday when they are demoted to the minors. Now Player A returns three days later and, in his second game back, he hits a home run. Do you pick up Player A again? Or do you risk watching Player A perform well on someone else’s team? Within the answer to this question is your very existence. If you pick up Player A again, you’re the type to give people lots of chances, including girlfriends. Sure, she slept with my best friend, but she was thinking about me. Sometimes this leads to people walking all over you. You’ll think you’re happy, but you won’t actually be for your entire life. Now if you’re the type that doesn’t pick up Player A, you’re tough as nails, and no one walks over you. You also distance yourself from people and don’t cut people enough slack. We broke up because she talked during the opening fifteen minutes of Goodfellas. NOBODY’S allowed to talk during that. You’ll probably find yourself cold and alone for the rest of your life. And that my friends is the Intro to the Tao of Frenchy. You’re welcome.

Let’s pretend Francisco Liriano is that girl you hooked up with at the bar. You think she’s hot, but, honestly, you can’t really remember the color of her hair, let alone her carpet. Though you do remember the sex being good. Now she calls to tell you she’s available Sunday night and your friend, Kevin Slowey, just cancelled on you. Oh, and there’s one condition, since the last time you saw her, she had reconstructive surgery. She swears she’ll be back in form by Sunday. You agree to meet her and begin to talk about that night you met. She confides that she has no idea what you look like either. Now you can meet her because the sex was good one random night before her reconstructive surgery or, because she has no idea what you look like either, you can call your friend and trade him this girl for John Maine. I trade Liriano for John Maine before Sunday night. You’re in a one year league and you’re playing for the here and now. You don’t have time for Liriano to ‘get back to form.’ Sell high and trade Liriano. With that said, here’s some other players you should buy or sell.

SELL

Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp - If you can trade any of these guys, I think you’ll be a happier person. The Pierre Situation™ has screwed up everything. Maybe Pierre gets traded, but at this point you’re not in a good position to succeed with any of these guys.

Felix Pie - Reed Johnson has sliced into the playing time of Pie. Oofa! Grab a spot on the bench next to Matt Murton, Felix. Trade Pie to someone who thinks Pie will definitely win the position and succeed.

Luke Scott - He’s batting near .500. If anyone believes it, I’d trade him. Otherwise, hold onto him for the time being.

Blake DeWitt - If you don’t think Torre’s going to play Nomar, take one look at The Pierre Situation™.

Mark Reynolds - He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be as good as he has been for the last week. Not to mention, he will strikeout 200 times this year.

BUY

Brett Myers - In two starts, he’s been battered like he likes to do to his wife. He’ll be better.

Micah Owings - Almost 9 K/9. Under 3 BB/9.

Edwin Jackson - He got a Murtonesque mishandling by the Dodgers. Underutilized or not utilized at all. Back in the day, he was a great prospect for the Dodgers.  He’s still only 24, but he is on the Rays.

Justin Upton - I don’t think you can get him from anyone in an NL-only league or a keeper, but one year league owners may not be sold. He’s a talent.

Chad Billingsley - Velocity’s down but he was pitched out of the bullpen then made to start. I think it’s just a rough beginning.

Mike Napoli - His average is going to be in the dumpster, but he’s showing power.

Jeff Suppan - Not masterful, but he can help out with wins and innings.

Shawn Hill - In 97 innings last year, he had 65 Ks and a 3.42/1.14. If he’s on waivers, grab him. He’s about to come back from his injury.

Scott Hairston - He got a Murtonesque mishandling in Arizona. He now has his chance to play.

Miguel Cabrera - None of his owners are actually worried about him, are they?

These are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Every Baltimore Oriole not named Nick Markakis, Ramon Hernandez or Brian Roberts - This team looks atrocious. Millar’s best is behind him, and he was never that good, shortstop is a black hole, Mora is mediocre and will get injured soon, forget Adam Jones for now, I don’t even like Luke Scott anymore as a deep sleeper.

Ronny Paulino - Doumit looks to be getting the starts against righties. Overall, there’s mostly righties. Look elsewhere.

ADDS

Mark Lowe - Second in line (presumably) Sean Green (not the Jew that retired) then Eric O’Flaherty. Then again, Miguel Batista got the save the other night, so, ya know, don’t invest too heavily.

Jair Jurrjens - He’s still very raw, but I liked what I’ve seen so far. I would take a flier, if there’s room.

Brian Bannister - The other day, when asked about Bannister, I said he was like last year’s Maddux. I stand by that. There is a place for that on certain teams.

Ryan Church – The Mets are outfield poor. In deep leagues, you have to take a look because of the lineup he’s in.

Angel Pagan - Speaking of the Mets, and speaking of deep leagues, NL-onlyers take a look. He’ll be in left until Alou returns.

Joey Gathright - Bourn, Carlos Gomez have to make room — more cheap steals.

Blake DeWitt - In very deep leagues, keep it in the back of your mind that DeWitt was considered the best hitter in the 2004 draft.

Franklin Gutierrez, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, Lastings Milledge - There’s been a lot of discussion on this site about these six fifth outfielders. So with Rudy Gamble’s permission, I’m just going to reprint what he had to say in the comments of this post.

Billy Butler - Best average and RBI of the bunch. Got valuable experience last year. And 1B potential. Only downside vs. the rest is no speed.

Nate McLouth - Best SB and Run potential of the bunch. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.

Lastings Milledge - Most upside of the group but I’m just not sold on any part of his game. Not a good base stealer. No minor league history of plus power.

Melky Cabrera - By no means a great player but he’s young, has 2 years experience, playing for a running manager in a great lineup, and w/ more job security than the guys below him on this list. I think he ends up 75/15/75/15 with a respectably .280 average.

Franklin Gutierrez - No plus power or speed in his minor league history. I think he may fall short of Melky in all 5 categories. Might have playing time cut into. Grey’s note: I don’t see his playing time cut and I like FraGu’s (<—forced nickname!) promise. I see 70/20/80/.270/20. And maybe someone in the Indians’ brass has been reading Razzball, because Gutierrez moved up to the sixth spot the last two days. Just sayin’.

Andre Ethier - His stats for the past two years are just bleh. 15 HR power and no speed. Probably second to Butler on projected AVG. And there’s no doubt Pierre reclaims his job if Ethier slumps.

Scott Hairston - That’s right, I’m adding another name into the six fifth-outfielder-mix. Hairston never got a fair shake in the desert, but he’s got good pop.

Jose Lopez - If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.

HOLDS

Pedro Martinez – He’s going on the DL for 4-6 weeks. I think it’s probably going to end up closer to 6 weeks because of his age. Then he’ll have to rehab. I could see dropping him, if you have someone already filling your DL slot, but I’m going to hold onto Pedro for now.

Juan Pierre - You drafted him for steals. He’s still going to end up with thirty to forty. The Pierre Situation with Ethier hasn’t been decided yet. You need to hold pat. There’s still 25 more weeks in the season. Chill, people.

Tom Gordon - I hate him with great fervor, but we need to see Lidge come back and be healthy before he moves to a “Drop.”

In today’s daily notes, I’ll look at how badly Pedro Martinez’s struggles were against the Marlins up until the injury and everything else I saw in today’s major league games:

Dan Uggla, Luis Gonzalez took Pedro Martinez deep. Beltran took an awful route to a ball for a Hanley triple to score an AA chip. In another at-bat, he made Uggla seem discriminating. Gary Cohen put it best, “Best thing Pedro did tonight was his at-bat.” But against VandenHurk, it’s a very small consolation. I’m not pleased. He should’ve dominated this team. There were lots of meatballs thrown by Pedro. He didn’t look in command of anything. He can no longer overpower people and… He left with an injury. Looked like a hamstring or a groin tweak. Didn’t look serious, but at his age, it could be. Word from Pedro, he heard a pop. That’s never a good thing. Or as Willie said, ” That’s not always good, but we’ll let it calm down and get an MRI.” Is there a time it is good? Jorge Sosa gets his next start for NL-only leagues, everyone else needs to wait and see. To be continued.

Must look at Angel Pagan in NL-only leagues. He’s no more than a reserve at this point. He’s got good speed, but nothing more than a fill-in for the Mets and probably shouldn’t be much more for you.

Posada hit into a double play to the right side of the infield. This will be a recurring theme.

Melky could put 5/5 numbers and his defense will keep him in the lineup. Fortunately, he will not put up those numbers. He will be a lot better. There was some comment chatter on this post about who will be better between Butler, McLouth, Ethier, Milledge and Gutierrez. Rudy added Melky into that group. Makes sense. I like them Butler, Gutierrez, Melky, Milledge, McLouth then Ethier. But Ethier placing last is a testament to the other guys and not that huge of a knock on Ethier. This group will be watched all year.

Both Halladay and Wang looked good, except no Ks. Probably the most boringest matchup that could take place. Was like watching paint dry. Paint that doesn’t strike anyone out. Really farkin’ boring paint. Oh, wait, there was something more boring-er.

The Cardinals hitting. Skip Schumaker? Cesar Izturis? Kyle Lohse batting 8th? Larussa has outdone himself this year.

I hate Kip Wells. How could he pitch so well and not so… er, Wells? Did he really strikeout Pujols?

Joba v. Rios — Rios BB. Joba’s the most exciting reliever since steroid-ed Gagne. Rios would’ve been a consensus 2nd round pick, if he played for the Yanks or Mets and not just on my list. People need to see him play.

Matt Kemp was out of the lineup in favor of Juan Pierre. The Pierre Situation is quickly becoming a nightmare that could ripple into the entire outfield, not just Andre Ethier. I’d much rather see Kemp than Ethier out there. Frankly, I’d prefer to see Andruw Jones sit.

If you’re looking to handcuff Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail has been declared the primary setup man, not Oscar Villarreal.

As much as Rich Aurilla should retire, the Giants should not be playing him.

Scott Hairston went deep and Bourn stole another base (but it was against Bard and Young, so dur, of course). Hairston’s someone who never got a fair shot in Arizona, but he’s got a good eye, posting over a .400 OBP in the minors.