Welcome to the real second half. Not that 4 game H2H sprint where you lose to the last place team cause he had 3 guys carry his week, one of them named Molina. I am back from my much needed vacation funded by Razzball. Grey is so gracious to give me 52 weeks off a year, because this isn’t work, this is a hobby. The second half, albeit not exactly half which would make it more like 17/32nds, starts with a really full first week. As I was going through the probable pitchers, I wondered what 12 days rest would mean to most of these guys. In most cases, not much, but in some cases it could prove beneficiary (was the word of the day on my calender so I had to use it). In other cases, take note that some pitchers will be rusty this week, so expect a spike in the peripherals. Here’s the week 16, two start, low rent starters for fantasy baseball:
R.A. Dickey (Ari vs. Enright) (@Lad vs. Kershaw)
The gleam is off the Dickey my friends. Last 3 starts, 0-2 with a no decision. Sounds like we should bail on him. Look deeper, has only given up 4 earned runs. Mets will score runs this week. Decent first matchup.
Wade LeBlanc (Atl vs. Jurrjens) (@Pit vs. Lincoln)
Wade the White, sounds like a Wizard. No home games and I still put him up here. Is prolly going to go 1-1, with 10k’s for the week, only problem is ERA is doubled on the road.
Kyle Kendrick (@StL vs. Hawksworth) (Col vs. Jimenez)
1 good start 2 bad seems like a pattern with him, first start here would restart the cycle. Gets a tough one with his second start against Bald Jim. Low K potential, gets killed by lefties. Has lowered ERA half a run over the last month.
Dan Hudson (@Sea vs. Pauley) (@Oak vs. Sheets)
Got the first start out of his system. Gets 2 great matchups. 10.4 k/9 rate in the minors is saying something. (9.99 leads majors). Patience is the key here, is going to be a good #2 in the future.
Blake Hawksworth (Phi vs. Kendrick) (ChC vs. Gorzellany)
The best superhero real name of all time. Has lowered ERA every start since mid-June. BAA is hovering around .300, ugh. 4k’s a game is okay considering he only pitches 5 innings a start. I would stash him for the Cubs start, but that’s just me.
Jeff Francis (@Fla vs. Robertson) (@Phi vs. Moyer)
Battling is the best I can say with Francis. Hitting that first wall after injury. All-Star break suits him good. Colorado looks like a different team to me lately, ones that wants to go to the playoffs. The Padres really can’t hold on, can they?
Dave Bush (@Pit vs. Lincoln) (Was vs. Atilano)
I would still say we should run from it, but look at the matchups. Gets no stud opposing SP, can be mediocre and let the bats win him the games. 2.78 ERA in last 10 games…Hmmm, very interesting.
Chris Tillman (TB vs. Davis) (Min vs. Baker)
Was a toss up here, as both he and Arrieta double up. I like his 2 matchups better, but they are still the O’s. Comes off first win high, pitched great versus a great hitting team. Good mechanics, smooth delivery. Future rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton and Hobgood With Erbe closing, nice. Damn, AL East.
James McDonald (SF vs. Bumgarner) (NyM vs. Pelfrey)
My snoozer of the week. Your typical 3 earned in 6 innings, 6 K kinda guys. Sounds good to me. Gets the hated Giants, and the scuffling hand licker (there’s video to back this up) Pelfrey. Good roll of the dice gets 2 cozy home starts at Chavez.
Scott Feldman (@Det vs. Bonderman) (Laa vs. Pineiro)
Texas hits well. WHIP disaster. Will win games 10-7, with him giving up all 7 runs. Brother Corey is not pleased one bit. Free piece of advice, don’t chase wins.
Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley. It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others. For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?
With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball. (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.) For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.” So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.
My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post. In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:
Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill. A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season. A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc. Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
Criteria #1: Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
Criteria #2: Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)
Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups. Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success. Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia). But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
Criteria #3: Threw 15+% sliders
Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:
wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA. xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values. See here for more info. You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ’2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.
One caveat before I move on to the picks. ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’ Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS). So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead. Just try to avoid drafting more than one….
#1 – Brett Anderson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 32%
Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks. His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)
So why is he #1 on the list? He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard. Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders. Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.
If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season. Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.
#2 – Ross Ohlendorf
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 24%
Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher. While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009. Translation: Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.
#3 – Kevin Correia
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 30%
Petco : ERA is equal to:
a) Baco : Salad
b) Balco : HRs
c) Maaco: Brakes
d) Yoko : Oh no Beatles!
e) All of the above
The correct answer is E. Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre. 12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.
The problem? While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors. Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls). You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common? We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….
#4– Joba Chamberlain
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 22%
I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.
As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway. But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.
Pass on him as a starter. Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.
#5 – Randy Wells
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 27%
Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009. Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.
While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.
But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average). He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).
#6 – Adam Wainwright
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches: No.
Slider %: 19%
#7 – Chris Carpenter
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 28%
Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero. Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?
Case in point: Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year. His 3,614 pitchers were 3rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632). Sabathia was #4 at 3,587. Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury). He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors. Who was 2nd in the most breaking pitchers? None other than Chris Carpenter.
There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners). For Wainwright, he had the 5th most effective slider and 2nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8th and 17th respectively). His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5th most effective).
Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers? Tough to say. But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
#8 – Jason Hammel
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 14.9%
The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP. In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).
On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches. And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider). So he’s not too much ‘safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.
#9 – Jeff Niemann
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 12%
Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high. Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel. He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP). While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid. And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.
His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.
This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals. How’s that for double talk (talk)? But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him. I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.
#10 – Gavin Floyd
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 27%
The first returnee from last year! Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.
And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).
I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd: 1) You win Round #1 and 2) Good luck winning Round #2.
I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.
#11 – Ryan Dempster
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 34%
The second returnee from last year! Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief. Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008. That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.
I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%). It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).
So be careful before you Dempster dive….
#12 – Jorge de la Rosa
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 15%
George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky. De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.
While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much. He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.
He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.
But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only. If he comes cheap, grab him. Otherwise, pass.
#13 – Max Scherzer
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 12%
Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.
Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.
But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher. Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year. Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.
I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.
#14 – Ricky Romero
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 13%
Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13). A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).
My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards. Follow that instinct.
#15 – Joel Pineiro
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 12%
Talk about an efficient pitcher. Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170). No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!
So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency. And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling. In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.
I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him. If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.
#16 – Edwin Jackson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 27%
The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce. Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.
To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious. To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9. In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).
Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders. His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1. Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.
The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.
#17 – Scott Feldman
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 2%
Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins. 17 wins?! AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!
Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates. So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.
The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd. 44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve. He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else. That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9). The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%). Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH. Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH. Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness. Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.
Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.
#18 – Ricky Nolasco
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 25%
Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever. How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP? You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%). If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.
All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me. He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%). Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year. But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.
#19 – Tommy Hanson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 24%
Mmm…flop? No, definitely no. Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher. I still want him on at least one of my teams. The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.
The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s. 24% sliders and another 14% curveballs. He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.
I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.
#20 – Josh Johnson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 25%
Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion). He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH). He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.
But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be. I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood. Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.
How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010. She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums). We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA). Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.75/1.24/174
22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010. 105 Ks; blech! I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year. He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 15-12/3.49/1.14/105
23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma. He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself. Don’t worry about wins. Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games. Pitfall, Harry! Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections: 11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers: 8-8/2.79/1.23/185
24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets. Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show. Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up. Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections: 18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.13/1.21/146
25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after. February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again. Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.62/1.26/161
26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits. On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13. That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively. The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th. By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year. Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers: 13-12/3.73/1.31/204
27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me. Confounded I tell ya! He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was. Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league? That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves. Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-4/2.93/1.23/119
28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half. He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific. Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers: 15-9/4.37/1.19/162
29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA). In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06. Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010. Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers: 15-13/3.84/1.27/127
30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league. Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate. He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season. For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-4/2.89/1.18/116
31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks. What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up. It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers: 13-11/3.77/1.28/149
32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting. My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year. Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise. Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers: 11-9/3.65/1.31/172
33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed. Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there. His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-10/3.05/1.28/104
34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff. In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.” And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE! Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one. Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd. His 2008 looked like an outlier. In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA. What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us. Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections: 12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers: 11-11/4.06/1.23/163
35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman. His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma. Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?” Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-8/4.08/1.28/113
36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first. So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers: 8-12/3.95/1.26/189
37. Chad Billingsley – Bust! I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk. Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci. I will love Billingsley again next year. Major bounce back coming. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections: 16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers: 12-11/4.03/1.32/179
38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break). I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-9/4.38/1.38/193
39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92. Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible. Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.84/1.25/105
40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career. Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear. Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections: 13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers: 13-9/4.04/1.40/195
Ryan Madson finally took over for Brad Lidge. This was only about three months in the making and after six separate endorsements by Manuel saying Lidge is their closer. Ah fanabla, what a headache. Ever since Brett Myers returned from his MMA training, fantasy baseballers (that’s you!) seem ready to put Myers in the closer role. That would be too easy, right? Right. No, Madson’s the first guy to grab and maybe Myers sees time here and there. I’d grab both of them, unless you have a bleeding ulcer, then I’d stay away. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks and leads the AL with 16 wins. Shoot me now. Seriously. Shoot me and Randy Wolf while you’re at it.
Marlon Byrd – 9 for his last 14 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs. He was having problems with kidney stones prior to this outburst, by I guess that problem passed. (Pun point for Grey.) Oh, and he’s single-handedly winning H2H leagues.
Francisco Liriano – Activated from the Disgraceful List and sent to the bullpen. He still has no value.
Jake Peavy – Supposedly, he should be ready to go against the Mariners next week. Was this whole elbow thing a ploy to face an NL-type offense? BTW, the White Sox pulled the plug on this season already, why are they trying to get Peavy back in there?
John Maine – Will return for this Sunday’s game vs. the Phils. He’ll be limited to around 70 pitches which will, uh, limit his value.
Ian Kinsler/Chris Davis/Nelson Cruz - Because we all love a nice bit of schadenfreude, I present to you, frequent commenter, Zombie, “For those who revel in others’ misfortune, I present a Trifecta Ticker Tease as the Rangers wallop the Tribe today 10-0. Those of us who own Kinsler, Davis, AND Cruz have returned from lunch, eagerly check the boxscore and see a combined 2 for 14, 0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, and one goddamn Run…. The lone run only seems to punctuate the dearth of any additional production! And for all you Esteban German owners out there, you deserve his 5 for 5 day, you bastards.”
Felipe Lopez – HR yesterday. Now on pace for 10 homers and 7 steals. Somewhere, Crapolanco smiles.
Bobby Scales – Ran head first into a wall, went down for a minute or two, then played a few more innings before being lifted for Sam Fuld. Fuld, indeed.
Huston Street – Unable to return until early next week, according to Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca. I love that name.
Justin Maxwell – 3-for-5, 1 steal. Could have some cheap speed for deep leagues, but he misses being a legitimate major leaguer by that much.
Carl Pavano – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER. Now has 4 starts in a row where he’s been completely digestible. He gets the Indians next.
Rafael Soriano – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save. Member when his ERA was around 1.50, like, a month and a half ago? Yeah, me too. Now it’s near 3.
Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks. And it rolls on.
Carlos Delgado/Jose Reyes – Both said they want to return in the last two weeks of the season. The Mets will just need to win 25 of their remaining 12 games to clinch a playoff berth.
Randy Wolf – Had his start scratched with a tweaked elbow. Sounds like an excuse to rest him as they head towards the playoffs. Kuroda will take his start.
James Loney – HR yesterday. Now has two in three games, while batting near .400 for the last week.
Scott Podsednik – 4-for-7 with a steal. He’s been a top 30 outfielder this year and the most valuable White Sox hitter this year. Cust kayin’.
Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-5 with a steal. Now has 11 homers and 12 steals in 211 at-bats. Prepare for an offseason barrage of fantasy baseball ‘perts telling you you have to own him next year and causing his value to skyrocket.
Jose Lopez – 3-for-4, HR yesterday. Now has 3 homers in 5 games while batting near .500.
Krispie Young – Hit another homer yesterday. Now has five in 4 games. I’m sure we’ll see him again in Friday’s Buy/Sell.
Adam Wainwright – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks with his 18th win. He wins the Cy Young, right? Not rhetorical. Seriously, he does, right?
Matt Holliday – Left the game with a bruised knee. He said he should be good by the Cards next game as long as he never has to play in Oakland again.
Albert Pujols – 2 HRs yesterday. After the 2nd homer, Pujols’s BFF Lugo jumped around like Pujols called the shot beforehand in the dugout. So this got me thinking, and maybe I’m just devious, but if you were a random baseball player in the playoffs, let’s say Casey Blake, wouldn’t you have your teammate pretend you called a homer? Beforehand, Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson make a deal. If Blake hits a homer, Hudson will jump around in the dugout screaming, “He called it!” Like Fox Sports wouldn’t run with this story and suddenly Casey Blake would be the star of the World Series, get endorsements — Hi, I’m Casey Blake, this is a Sprint phone and I called it. — and he would get a huge contract. Casey Blake would be synonymous with clutch. Oh my God, I’m Scott Boras.
When doctors said Aaron Harang is going to have a useless part of his body removed, everyone in the Reds clubhouse thought the same thing, “What is Willy Taveras doing in Harang’s body?” If Dusty were a doctor, he would left Harang’s appendix in a few more innings. The appendectomy will force Harang to the DL for the rest of the season. Too bad, the Reds just traded for Rolen and things were really starting to come together. Feel free to cut Harang. He’s done-zo. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Chris Dickerson – Headed to the DL with a whatever-you-don’t-care. What you do care about, the Reds might call up Chris Heisey. He’ll be talked about in the afternoon post where I break down the potential September call-ups.
Adam Jones – He hurt his back while swinging the bat. He’s been terrible so far in August and now it sounds like he’ll be missing a few games at least. Cue an awkward dancing Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner and Danny Devito and turn on the Billy Ocean…
Scott Downs – Returns from the DL on Monday. Will he be the closer? Here’s what Gaston said, “I’m not sure about closing. I’m not sure about that. We’ll see how it goes. If he got here tomorrow and I said we’re going to stick him in the closer’s spot right away, I’m not sure if that’s fair to him either.” That is both wishy and washy.
Mark Reynolds – DNP with a 100-degree temperature. Get well soon, Mini Donkey!
Carlos Gonzalez – Out for up to a week after he cut his hand while cutting a piece of steak. Can’t they get Spilborghs to cut up his meat for him? After Barmes’s vension accident a few years ago, maybe the Rockies should go vegetarian during the summer months. Or only use chopsticks. Crab rangoon is delicious!
Seth Smith – With CarGo’s inability to handle a knife, Smith might see some short term time. He also has 2 homers in the last three games.
Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks. If you owned only Rockie pitchers, you’d probably be doing better than you are in your leagues. Zoinks!
Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. He’s actually had a full month of decent starts. Not great, decent. Check your modifiers, Razzball reader.
Jhonny Peralta – HR yesterday as he bats near .400 over the last week. Let me pull out my lukewarm endorsement…. If you really need an MI, what the hey?
Matt Diaz – 4-for-4 yesterday. It’s Dye-as. Usually only hits lefties, currently hitting everyone.
Pedro Martinez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 Ks. I swear, I keep thinking to myself he’s going 5 IP, 3 ER or 6 IP, 4 ER. I’m like the quiet psychic. This Fall on Fox, turn up the volume and watch as he solves mysteries while speaking just above a whisper… Robert Carlyle is The Quiet Psychic.
Angel Pagan – 2 HRs yesterday. See, there is a reason he was nominated for the Henry Aaron Award!
Jayson Werth – Hit his 29th homer yesterday. You gotta love when your third outfielder pans out. I know the feeling, I own Raul Ibanez on a few teams. (Though he’s been cold lately.) Third outfielders panning out make me horny! *Awkward silence at Razzball.com* Did Grey just say third outfielders… Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Ricky Nolasco – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners. Here’s the deal, Nolasco. And I’m gonna break it down to you real simple like Jeff Foxworthy. One terrible game like the stinker vs. the Astros when you gave up 10 earned runs in just over three innings. That’s forgivable because you came back and pitched a complete game the next game. But when you follow that up with another stinker, you become unpredictable and harder to start. Thanks for listening, Nolasco. I’m glad we had this talk.
Alcides Escobar – Hit his first homer yesterday. After he crossed home, I screamed at the TV, “I have guys to hit homers. Steal a frickin’ base, doode!”
Adam Dunn – Hit his 33rd homer yesterday. If he doesn’t get to 40, Stephen Hawking will press a button on his Speak & Spell and blow up the Earth. Just so you know what we’re up against.
Drew Stubbs – He looks so lost at the plate, it’s kinda comical. Still has speed, will have bumps.
Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER. I’m glad he pitched a good game… Actually, I don’t care. What am I, his hypenate nephew-slash-personal assistant? No, I’m not. He gets the Dodgers next. Blech.
Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks. Easily his best start of the year. I still can’t get fully behind starting him, but if you need to take some risk, then go for it.
Bud Norris – 1 IP, 6 ER as he roofied his owners. When thinking about starting a rookie, see Example A: Norris’s line.
Jake Fox – 4-for-4, HR yesterday. Can an AL team trade for him this winter? Please. I’d like to own him in the fantasy, but non-Biblical way.
Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 4 baserunners, 0 ER, 5 Ks. Right side of the brain, Dempster beat the NL-best Dodgers yesterday. Left side of the brain, Dempster lost to the Padres last time out. So his next start vs. the Mets is a good thing or a bad thing? Damn conflicting sides of the brain!
John Smoltz – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners and 9 Ks vs. Padres. If only the Red Sox played in Petco… Smoltz gets the Nats next time out. I’d roll the dice for another start, then reevaluate.
Jack Cust – 2 HRs yesterday. Cust is hitting near .500 in the last week with three homers. Few hitters get as streaky as Cust (though A-Rod comes close right after he gets out of the salon and has his frosted tips done).
