Fantasy Baseball Advice

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

Turns out Yahoo’s fantasy baseball doesn’t count the Twins and Tigers game no matter the format.  It’s the Keyser Söze of regular season games, I suppose.  ESPN, on the other hand, does count it.  So that means only one thing.  Pick up everyone from either the Tigers or the Twins, if it could mean a championship for you.  Ryan Raburn?  Yes, please!  Delmon Young?  Of course!  Fu-Te Ni?  Yes, unless you want to get F-U’d royally.

Starting the game are Scott Baker and Rick Porcello, but, at the first sign of trouble, they’ll be lifted.  This makes every starter, except for Sunday’s starters for either team, available.  Manship, Liriano and Robertson et al (that’s not the Israeli airline) could all see action.  Don’t forget possible unlikely heroes if you need any hitting stats.  That’s right, this may be the only time you see me fully endorse picking up Gerald Laird, Matt Tolbert and Jose Morales.  Even Nick Punto.  Well… No, even him.  Most importantly, if your opponent needs any stats at all, block them from getting them.  So if this means owning Matt Guerrier for no reason other than you’re afraid your opponent might get a vulture win and beat you, then own Guerrier, in the non-biblical sense, of course.

Chris Carpenter went five innings giving up no runs, allowing 4 baserunners, adding in 6 Ks, driving in 6 runs and five golden… rings.  12 runs for the Cards, but everyone was a ticker tease, except for Carpenter who pitchslapped Kip Wells.  LaRussa’s mind must be swimming with ideas….Do I hit him 8th?  7th?  Do I platoon him with Ankiel in the OF and have Ankiel come in for intentional walks?  Do I go with a Singapore Sling or an Old Fashioned?  Why is Dave Duncan looking at me?  Is my fly open?  How come no one read my book, Tonyball?  If I’m facing East, my hair should be facing West!  Why is it going South?!  If homeless people have no homes, why do they lug around so much junk?  Homeless people shouldn’t be pack rats!… Wow, there’s a lot swimming in Tony’s mind.  Interesting to peek into the mind of a genius, ain’t it?  Surprised he didn’t mention this is the last roundup of the year.  Ho-hum, so sad.  There will still be a new post every week day through the fall and winter, so check your separation anxiety at the door.  I’m still here.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 0 ER.  His FIP last year was 3.79.  This year it was near 4.  So he was .20 off of last year.  He throws around 7 Ks per 9 innings.  So he’s good for about 155 Ks.  His Post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.39.  Guess what I’m saying is I’m going to predict next year he’ll pitch around a 3.75 ERA, good WHIP and solid Ks and he’ll be someone to look at as a third fantasy starter with number two upside and number four downside.  And in three months, I’ll quote that.

Orlando Cabrera – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  Behind the scenes of Razzball, I’m busy doing the top 20 recaps that will be coming your way over the next few weeks.  So O-Cab made it pretty high on the top 20 list for SSs.  I’m like, “Cool, he had a good 2nd half.”  He hit 4 homers and stole 6 bases while batting .296.  Okay, so he had a good two months?  Nope.  The shortstops are so shallow that a good five weeks is all it took.  Anyway, I’m jumping the gun, those recaps will be coming next week.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4 yesterday.  He’s batting .309 with one homer in September.  This is considered a good month for him.  Would I pickup Young off waivers next year?  Sure.  I wouldn’t draft him.  I’m not going to write someone off who’s only 24, but I’m at the point where I want to see something from Young before I take the gamble on him in 2010.  I mean, Ryan Raburn and Garrett Anderson are above Delmon Young on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Young’s the new blech.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  It’s Rocktober.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 2 ER.  I’m giving him the Cy Young.  He threw more innings than Carpenter, way more Ks and he’s dazzling.  I know, it’s tough to judge dazzling, but if you’ve ever watched Lincecum pitch you know what I mean.  It’s kinda like a choice between the crazy hot girl that would cheat on you and the sweet girl that would make a nice mother.  I’m taking the crazy hot girl.  For what it’s worth, I think the voters go with Carpenter.  What’s a shame in all of this is Wainwright’s getting totally ignored.  Maybe I just have a special kinship to Wainwright because I own him on a few teams and I pushed many people to draft him this year.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4, up to 215 Ks.  This last month (4 homers, 2 steals, .187) is why I’m going to probably take a pass on Reynolds if people are grabbing him in the top 50.  I saw value in him when people were drafting him around 200.  I see very little value for next year.  What do you want, I’m frugal.  It’s a recession after all.

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks.  Ends the season with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.44 ERA in the 2nd half.  The good news is his next start is scheduled for the 1st half.

Derrek Lee – Scratched for personal reasons.  Maybe he has crabs.

John Lackey – 2 IP, 2 ER and 40 pitches.  This is about what you can expect from starters who are headed to the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect more than 5 innings from any of them.  This is a shout out to you Hamels owners.

Kevin Millwood – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  And this is what to expect from pitchers facing teams headed to the playoffs.

Chris Davis – 3-for-5, and hit his 21st homer of the year.  I can’t wait to see what Bill James predicts for Chris Davis for 2010.  No sarcasm there, really interested.

Cliff Lee – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  The Adverb finishes with a 3.39 ERA for Philly.

Kendry Morales – Hit his 34th homer yesterday.   The best case scenario would be the Angels are eliminated quickly from the playoffs.  Worst case scenario is, in late-October, Joe Buck saying something like, “America’s getting a firsthand look at what Kendry Morales has been doing all year.”  Then Tim McCarver says, “Good thing there weren’t more men on base when Mt. Everest erupted cause then there would be more runs.”

The Mets infirmary added a new member yesterday with Johan Santana complaining of elbow soreness.  M-E-S-S… Mess, Mess, Mess…  I can’t remember another team that has been this Kotchman-bitten.  Now pitching for the New York Mets… Angel Pagan.  He will also lead-off.  I don’t think in spring training when the Mets promised no September collapse they anticipated a June collapse.  Johan Santana may need surgery.  Or maybe he can return.  If you were the Mets, would you press your luck and hope for no whammy?  I mean this is more common sense than ‘pert sense.  Don’t do anything drastic until we hear more, but, as with anything Mets related this season, plan for the worse.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jeff Francoeur – Ligament tear in his thumb.  Frenchy’s toast?  This free swinger says to ball gag that thought.  Francoeur thinks he can continue to play.  It may be financially motivated… Oh, who are we kidding?  No one owns him.

Billy Wagner – Will stay with the Mets.  Anyone wanna take bets that he’ll be examined by a doctor for an injury by next Thursday?

Chris Davis – I mentioned him briefly in the September call ups post-a-ma-thingie yesterday.  He’ll get opportunities to be better than earlier in the year.  Can Davis provide you with some pop?  Um, yeah.  He can hit 10 homers in September alone.  Will he?  Sorry, the Magic Eight Ball’s in the shop.  He’s worth a flier if you need power.  Hank Blalock’s value will probably take the biggest hit with the Davis recall, but Blalock was hurting his own value anyway.

Pablo Sandoval – Left yesterday’s game in the 3rd with a tight calf.   If he were on the Mets, he’d be out for the year, which is to say he’s day-to-day.

Freddy Sanchez – Could be headed to the DL with a sore shoulder.  The same sore shoulder I could’ve told the Giants front office about prior to them trading away Tim Alderson for Sanchez.

Ryan Howard – 2 HRs yesterday and 7 homers in the last ten games.  The first homer was an opposite field shot where he was jammed and had no business hitting it out.  Somewhere, Frank Howard is requesting a paternity test.

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 2 unearned runs, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Against the Mets lineup, the two unearned runs were probably a ticker shock to some.

Jose Contreras – 2 2/3 IP, 6 unearned runs.  Hey, Cliff, that’s not a ticker shock, this is a ticker shock.  Contreras heads to the bullpen and Peavy will probably take his Saturday start.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  He has been going through the usual rookie difficulties recently as he hits near .150 in the last week or so (<– now that’s some exact calculations!).  But he still has a few homers this month and 8 on the year.  I can’t wait to see where February Grey is going to rank him for 2010.  If I had to take a guess, I’d say around 150 with a blurb talking about how Beckham can outperform that draft spot.  Just as I was writing that, February Grey peeked his head in my office to say, “You don’t know me at all.”

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks and 4 flippin’ walks.  How about someone sign up Yovani, Kershaw and Scherzer for Be A Twinkie Fantasy Camp hosted by control freak, Brad Radke?

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Now has a 12-7 record and hasn’t lost in almost two months though his ERA is at 4.47.  That immediately sent me looking up one thing — Run Support.  He has the 11th best in the majors with over 8 runs/game.  Cust kayin’.

Jason Frasor – Hasn’t pitched in almost a week and is being bothered by shoulder tendinitis, which may speed up Downs’s save chances.

Ben Zobrist – Hit his 4th homer in the last six games.  Kiss your imaginary girlfriend goodbye, cause I’m about to blow your mind.  At 2nd base, Zobrist has been more valuable this year than Kinsler.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Sure, it was vs. the Giants, but Marquis has a 3.47 ERA on the year.  Incredible.

Roy Halladay – 6 IP, 7 ER.  After the game, Halladay was seen mumbling, “I coulda been in the NL.”

Randy Ruiz – Hit his 4th homer in 46 ABs since his call-up.  He’ll be exploited at some point but until then he can give you some pop.

Jason Giambi – Giambi sat down with his family to discuss his future, but they were unable to come to a decision.  Later that night, Giambi fell asleep on the couch.  In his dreams, the dwarf hooker from the movie, Orphan, greeted him with a pamphlet.  That pamphlet’s title, Choose Your Own Career Path.  Inside, there were two options.  1. Retire  2. Before you fade into oblivion, latch onto a team and become a pinch hitter.  Giambi woke in a sweat.  His wife asked if he had to do number two and Giambi rapidly nodded, he did.

Tim Hudson is on track to make a rehab start.  If all goes well, and that if is ginormous, then he can return to the Braves for their failed chase for the Wild Card.  Recovering from Tommy John is usually the same no matter what, shorty.  Pitchers usually return to three-quarters of their former selves or they can become seven-fifths of their former selves, which is to say they can be better.  Though they’re not usually better when they are first reactivated.  They usually return slightly less than three-quarters.  If you’re half as confused by those fractions as I am writing them, let me break it down to you, nice and simple like Minnie Pearl.  Tim Hudson’s worth stashing on your DL for matchups, but the upside is merely usable in 12 team leagues.  Don’t expect miracles.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  He shows you some solid starts, then he shits your house.

Michael Cuddyer – 4-for-5, 2 HRs and 19 homers on the year.  The quietest 19 homers anyone has in the majors.  Oh, wait.  Jason Kubel also has 19 homers.  Meanwhile, some schmohawk who’s batting .219 for the Sox is ESPN’s lead story.

Carl Pavano – 7 IP, 0 ER in his debut for the Twins on Saturday.  Still not a huge fan of 4th or 5th fantasy starters from the AL, but Pavano should be slightly better on the Twins.  I wouldn’t pick him up in most leagues, but there might be a situation where it makes sense.

Brian Matusz – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners as he roofied you. Remember that when you read about Derek Holland’s great start in about three minutes.

Marco Scutaro – HR yesterday as he went 4-for-5. Has 10 homers and 8 steals and a .300 average.  Somewhere Polanco says, “Hey, that’s my season!”

Trent Oeltjen – 3-for-4 and a HR yesterday.  Sometimes it takes a few weeks for pitchers to get the scouting reports on guys.  Worth grabbing The Outback while pitchers try to figure him out.  Keep in mind he looks like he’s sitting vs. lefties.

Yusmeiro Petit/Joel Pineiro – 4 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners and 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks and the Win.  Guess there’s only room for one -eiro.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  For those that don’t own the Mini-Donkey.  He now has 8 homers in the last 10 games.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.

Aaron Cook – Will miss his next start because of turf toe, which would’ve been avoided if God gave us all Nerf toes.

Carlos Gonzalez – 7 for his last 15 as he started every game this weekend for the Rox.  I doubt they start him vs. lefties, but in deep leagues he’s worth a flier.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid start, just Johan outpitched him.  I just had a crazy idea, imagine Johan pitched his home games in a stadium as spacious as Petco… Oh, wait.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-4, after hitting homers in back-to-back games on Friday on Saturday.  No idea how he hit those homers, I’m assuming 120 MPH winds were blowing out and they let Velez hit from 2nd base.  Either way, he’s batting .400 over the last seven games.  He’s really just steals, but while he’s hot he’s worth a flier.

David Weathers – Heads to the Brewers.  Now the Brewers have Tackleberry (Weathers), Guttenberg (Braun) and Hooks (Fielder).

Felipe Lopez – 1-for-3, batting .303 on the season with 6 homers and 6 steals.  Marco Scutaro just looked at those numbers and yawned.  Steal a base, Lopez!  Hit a homer!  Do something!

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday as I sat him because he was facing a lefty.  Sonavabench!

Matt Diaz – HR yesterday vs. a lefty and batting .350 on the year vs. lefties.  If you have the room, Diaz do what he do vs. lefties.

Derek Holland – Complete game shutout, 8 Ks.  Go back and look at Matusz’s line if you’ve forgotten.

Garrett Jones – 1-for-4, you have three games in Coors to hit a homer then we’re done-zo.

Jed Lowrie – Headed to the DL.  In other news, Julio Lugo’s batting .345 for the Cards.

Alexei Ramirez – HR yesterday.  Let’s put it this way, I’m not dropping Alexei (though I might in mid-September when anything goes), but Alexei has a long way to go before he falls into that category of guys I won’t draft on any team next year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Honestly, even when I said everyone should draft him in February, I had no idea the Wandwagon could roll like this.

Scott Kazmir – What a fucker.

Rajai Davis – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, SAGNOF!

Bobby Crosby – 2 HRs yesterday.  Elias Sports Bureau said these two homers by Bobby Crosby were the most by any player that you thought was no longer in the league.  Actually, they did not say that.  But overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau offices, “For the first time since last year, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.”