Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day I went over the top 20 starters for 2008, but, as with the top 20 outfielders for 2008 going to 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, I’ll also be going through the top 21 - 40 starters for 2008. This is after going through the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen. All of these rankings are based on the ESPN Player Rater, which sometimes smells of Muenster cheese, but I want Swiss-like neutrality when comparing my preseason predictions with final numbers. For the best player rater, download our Razzball fantasy baseball player rater. (How’s that for neutrality!) Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. Jon Lester - Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy - In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer - Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett - So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly - It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke - Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders - 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks - Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd - Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker - His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett - The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche - In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson - You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer - A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle - Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum - Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey - Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer - (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

Chris Carpenter will undergo surgery on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. Word in The Bootheel is he’ll be fine for spring training. This will be something to watch in March and should be a decent-sized question mark during next year’s drafts. Will definitely be a high risk, high reward-type scenario. No Whammy, no Whammy, stop! Ooh… Further shoulder issues and the 60-day DL. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Moss - With a divot forming on his knee, he needs surgery that will sideline him for 6-8 months. Can’t they just fill his knee in with some sod? Steven Pearce should see action in his stead. Yo, watch where you’re standing! That’s my stead!

Asdrubal Cabrera - Wasn’t supposed to start his suspension until Thursday, but he started it yesterday. Drop The Dribble while he serves his three game suspension.

Ryan Shealy - HR yesterday. The Royals as a team are hot, which is to say they are one game out of last place. Rooting for the Royals is like rooting for your widowed Granny to find a male suitor. It’s nice to see her happy, but you don’t want to see her too happy because that’s just weird.

Chad Billingsley - I love this sumbitch. As Scully may have said (I didn’t watch), Billingsley might not have had his best tonight, but the Padres haven’t had their best all season. The Dodgers are looking like they’re playoff bound. This might cost Billingsley a start on Sunday.

Cliff Pennington - Did nothing yesterday, but he has speed and the A’s have been playing him at 2nd. He’s worth a flier for steals.

Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 0 ER and 7 Ks. The Magic Wandy was strait-jacketed and dunked in a tank of E-9 by Wigginton, causing him to loss because of two unearned runs.

Evan Longoria - HR yesterday. The Rays pulled the ol’ Little League switcheroo yesterday in the second game of the DH. They sat some regulars then let them all pinch hit in the 8th as the Rays rallied for 6 runs. Free soft serve for everyone!

Tim Lincecum - Gave up four earned runs in only 4 and a third innings, but no fear he still threw 102 pitches. I have to think this carves Webb’s name on the Cy Young that the Giants so desperately wanted Lincecum to win more than ever make it through another healthy season.

Kenji Johjima - This KazIwadome rewarded patient owners with a 3-for-4 night and 3 RBIs. And by ‘patient owners,’ I mean owners that haven’t checked their fantasy baseball team since March when they auto-drafted Johjima.

Javier Vazquez - 4 IP, 5 ER. Guillen pulled a Mickey and asked to see Vazquez’s conjones. Vazquez showed marbles.

Scott Baker - 7 IP, 1 ER. Watch your feet, Baker’s throwing down a gauntlet.

Ryan Franklin - Grabbed the save yesterday, while Motte closed out the 7th inning and Chris Perez nailed down the 2nd out of the 8th inning.

Augie Ojeda - Batted 2nd and played 3rd base in the Diamondbacks biggest game of the season. Yost and Melvin obviously had a gentlemen’s bet of $1 to see who could get fired the latest in the season.

Cliff Lee - 7 IP, 5 ER and 12 earned over the last 21 and 1/3 innings. Comatose Indians fan, “Cliff, save some for the playoffs!”

Edinson Volquez - 7 and 1/3 innings, 1 ER and 9 Ks, but was pulled after only 98 pitches. Maybe Dusty let Paper, Rock, Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Surgery Scissors decide.

Sometimes getting to the World Series takes more than just talent.  Sometimes it takes a little psychological machinations to make it happen.  Sabathia brings the Brewers a talented co-ace with Sheets (bit of advice:  Sabathia was gassed at the end of the year - let him pitch a few 6 inning starts).  Durham provides them a motivational cattle prod for Rickie Weeks to step it up. The Brewers can say this was all about improving their depth but, really, do they make this trade if Weeks wasn’t hitting .216?  And it’s not like the Brewers are unafraid to make midseason adjustments.  Remember when they traded for F-Cord after Turnbow started to Turnbad? For his sake (and his FLB owners), Weeks better get hitting. When you think you can win the pennant, you put egos and reputations on ice. Remember the 1996 Yanks?  They were starting Charlie Hayes and Cecil Fielder over Wade Boggs and Tino Martinez at times. It’s all about production. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell - Coughed up 3 ER in 1 IP. The other day 4 ER in 1 IP. Bud Black realizes the pain felt by San Diego that comes with every Trevor Hoffman 9th inning blown save so he’s now taught Heath Bell how to blow saves in the 7th or 8th.

St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus is hitting .284 and hits HRs every day.  Aaron Miles just went 3-for-5 with 3 runs and 4 RBI.  Let’s put it this way - if Larussa had the dice in his hand at a Craps table, I’m putting all my chips on the Come line.

Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 5 ER. When walking outside in SF make sure you keep an eye on the sky, Lincecum’s falling to earth. And there’s nothing worse than getting Lincecum falling in your face. (And that’s a different Come line.)

Aaron Cook - Notched his 12th victory with 7 IP, 3 ER and an under one WHIP. I cannot believe I still have this schmohawk on my team in a ten team league, but he’s been better than I expected. I think the way he pitched in the All-Star game really showcased what he does best — get guys to groundout.

Kelly Shoppach - Now with 8 HRs…one for every million unhappy V-Mart fantasy baseball drafters.

Brian Wilson - A one inning Kazaam outing with 2 ER.  Wilson owners do not smile.  Some even make pet sounds.

Jaime Garcia - Gave up a home run to Cha Seung Baek. Cha Seung Baek you’ve just won a new Hyundai! Garcia is high on walks, decent Ks, very young. Deep league flier and matchups — like yesterday against the Padres, which didn’t turn out that swell. See first sentence of this entry.

Jose Guillen - Out of the starting lineup since the All-Star break with back spasms but contributed on Sunday with a SB and run in a pinch-hitting gig.  Assuming he doesn’t throw a tantrum and hurt himself, he should be a go in the next day or so.  Given he only has 1 RBI in his last 8 starts, keep him on the bench if you have a safer option.

Brandon Lyon - Two straight bad outings. This time, he spared Haren and took out his wrath on Webb.  Who misses Valverde?

Austin Kearns - 3-for-5 and scored 5 times in the rout against Atlanta, finally giving fantasy owners (all 16 of them) the right type of runs.

Mark Teixeira - 2 HRs in a losing cause.  Speak of losing causes, when are the Braves going to trade him?  Maybe the White Sox?

Jacoby Ellsbury - 0-for-5. The law firm of Jacoby Ellsbury just got served (you’re on your own figuring out that mixed metaphor). About .250 over the last two months, which I’d accept if he were stealing bags. He has one in July and it came on the first day of the month.

Edinson Volquez - 5 IP, 4 ER and he actually got lucky or there would’ve been more earned runs. You can’t say I didn’t warn you that the end of the brilliance was near.

Scott Baker - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8 Ks and was outpitched by Vicente Padilla who moved to 11-5. When a reporter asked Padilla if he thought he had a shot at 20, Padilla began to cackle at the absurdity of the thought. Latest reports confirm that he is still cackling.

Erik Bedard - Bedard out until August. Glass is half full, that’s only ten days away. Half empty, soon he’ll be out for the season.

Roy Oswalt - To the 15-day DL with a hip abductor strain. I wanted someone to take us through this to better understand how quickly Oswalt could return, so I asked the one person I know with hip problems. Grey’s Grandma, “A hip abductor strain? I think that’s the same thing Milldred got when she shouted Bingo. Supposedly, she didn’t even really have Bingo. She thought the Father said B-4, but he said “before.” Real shame to get something like a hip injury on a falsie. Have you seen my reading glasses? I put them next to the TV Guide and now I can’t find them. I wanted to do the crossword.”

I’m admittedly not a fan of rookie catchers. There’s not a long history of success, Piazza and… Um… Well… Benito Santiago. Granted in fantasy baseball, you don’t need a whole lot from a catcher for him to have a good year. But this is something you can work to your advantage. Rudy’s catcher projections for the BAO are 47/13/57/.273/2. (That’s Best Available Option from waivers, not a pork bun. The BAO is basically saying if you drop Posada, this what you’re probably going to get off of waivers.). Some close statistical fits: Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski. So if Geovany Soto gets you 67/25/87/.285/7 (which are unreal numbers, but I’m going with the ceiling for this experiment to prove a point), this puts you waaaaaay above the BAO for catcher. As I understand these honkytonk numbers, you are a plus 20/12/30/.012/5 from crap. And, by crap, I mean that’s if you pickup LoDuca, Estrada or Pierzynski. If you were to pickup Salty, and he gets better numbers than those three schmohawks, then you are ahead of the game. “What do I do with these geeky numbers, Grey? My eyes are bleeding!” Yeah, I know. I like to leave the numbers to Rudy, but I’m proving a point here. So if you have a glaring weakness, say your fifth OF is Luke Scott, you trade Soto for Torii Hunter and pickup Salty. Now the other guy’s psyched because he got Geovany Soto, who’s, like, better than gravity and can cure blindness, and gave you Torii Hunter, an aging outfielder. Well, if you paid attention, you just made your team better by trading Soto for Double I because the difference between Torii and Luke Scott is more than Soto and Salty. Soto would have to significantly outperform his projections to match the expectations of Torii. If you could get a reliable player who’ll fill a need, take it. Okay, here’s some more guys to buy and sell for your fantasy baseball team:

BUY

Wladimir Balentien - Wlad the Impaler got the call from the Mariners and I say he’s an immediate pickup in AL-Only leagues and worth a flier in deep mixed leagues. As with any flier, there’s plenty of risk so don’t drop anyone you might regret.

Chase Headley - No, he didn’t get called up yet. No, he’s not doing that well in the minors right now. Edmonds, which I believe is Slavic for injury-prone, is the only thing standing in Headley’s way.

Ian Stewart - I’ve already mentioned that Tulowitzki’s injury might force Atkins over to 2nd and Stewart into the bigs. I’d put that ‘might’ at about forty percent chance of a Stewart sighting. In fifteen team leagues and NL-Only, he must be owned now unless you want to risk missing him when he does get the call. In other leagues, ‘waiver’ at your risk, but when he gets the call he will be snatched up as fast as Jobacum.

Reggie Willits - If you need speed and Red Bull ain’t cutting it, here ya go. He’s supposed to be batting in the two hole going forward.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Three games a week are enough to show I care. (BTW, I hate The Beatles.)

Dioner Navarro - Anything goes when it comes to Navarro. (Love Big Daddy Kane.)

Randy Wolf - 37/11 K/BB ration is very good. Pitching in Petco is excellent. Cheap starters on waivers are priceless worth the guckin’ famble.

Scott Baker - Rare when I tout an AL starter, so, ya know, check him out. But be cautious, in his next start he gets the Tigers and he has a sore groin. (I really never thought I’d be writing ’sore groin.’)

Melky Cabrera - What, you don’t like 15/15 players? He gets there with ease. Sure, I just traded him away, but I also never touch a public bathroom door handle, you gonna do everything I do?

Santiago Casilla - I’ve had him on a team for about two weeks. 7 IPs/0.00/.90/9Ks Your starters can’t start every day. Why not boost your stats while they’re sitting?

Shane Victorino - People are starting to get annoyed with his slow start and lack of playing time. I say buy. Rudy just traded Capps for him. I think it’s a great trade.

Moises Alou - He’ll be back on Friday night. He’s an immediate add in deep leagues.

Robinson Cano - He won’t be a buy low guy for the entire season. You should try and steal him from someone.

Ryan Howard - He won’t bat under .200 for the entire season. He will hit 40 home runs. Go after him.

Rafael Betancourt - Sure, he’s blown a couple of saves, but Borowski isn’t good when he’s healthy. If you can get someone to throw-in Betancourt in a trade, do it.

Jeff Clement - He needs 5 starts or 10 games played. Started yesterday, there’s plans to start him again today. Kenji’s getting a “rest.”

Homer Bailey - If Matt Belise throws a game like he’s capable of, say, two and two-thirds innings with 7 runs allowed, Bailey will be up.

SELL

Brian Burres - Seems worth a pickup in a 30 team AL-Only league, anyone else should use extreme caution. Caveat emptor for those reading in Latin America.

Emil Brown - He’s sitting on 4 walks in a hundred at-bats. Francoeur has five walks. Emil simply had a good RBI month.

Armando Galarraga - *GEEKY NUMBER ALERT* He has an unsustainable BABIP. (Stands for Better Avoid Because I said Pho.)

Jayson Werth - Is he (pinkie to mouth) Werthless? No, but he’s not better than Victorino. He’ll be a faint memory in about a month.

Cliff Lee - I wrote in the comments on one of our posts, “His composite preseason numbers come out to about this: 12-8/4.68/1.43/130. That’s according to every noteworthy fantasy expert. Not simply us (we’re not that egotistical). Rudy goes over this stuff pretty in-depth, but you can start here for a primer. Does this mean Lee can’t breakout because no one saw it coming? No, it doesn’t. It just means there’s less of a chance.” And that’s me quoting me! If you can get Manny for Lee, I’d do it. (Which reminds me, whatever happened to Buddy Lee? I’m no advertising expert, but he was like the first cute advertising icon that wasn’t racist. He was a trailblazer. An icon. He stood for something — dungarees.)

Jimmy Rollins hits the DL. So there goes one of your top two picks. Yeah, that’s no fun. If you didn’t draft him, you’re smiling pretty wide today. Not because one of your leaguemates is suffering (okay, maybe that’s part of the fun). No, you’re smiling because you’re anticipating what I’m about to tell you. There may not be a better buying opportunity on Rollins the entire season. Buy now! Trade for Rollins. Get him. Swindle, people. Don’t wait a week until he’s about to come back. Don’t trade Hanley Ramirez for him; that’s just dopey. No, buy low on Rollins. Know that the ankle injury may linger for a little while, but it’s only April. If you can trade for Rollins offering some package that would have never worked two weeks ago, then you’re still getting a premiere shortstop who will be hitting in front of Utley and Howard all season. In the beginning of the season I had Rollins’s projections at 130/22/70/35/.290, I’d scale that to 110/18/55/22/.290 — so, I guess the question to you is, how much do you want those numbers? If you drafted Alex Rodriguez, you’re not getting much sleep tonight. Arod injured his right quad in Sunday’s game. Arod has a lot of positives going for him, durability is one. I think he’ll be just fine. Sit tight.

Frank Thomas - Hater Bell pointed out how Karabell was a part-mental patient, part-Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer when he called Frank Thomas a big 2008 sleeper. Yeah, it didn’t make any sense in March and still doesn’t, but whatever he’s ESPN’s top analyst, ya’ll.

Mark Lowe - I hope you’re not even bothering with this mess anymore. Putz should be back this Tuesday. Don’t bother with the fill-ins.

Rafael Soriano - He still can’t throw without pain. I think he might be out a month at least. Plan accordingly.

Chipper Jones - I should’ve had WebMd sponsor today’s post. Of course he’s hurt. The guy gets hurt on a base on balls. You know that though.

Edwin Encarnacion - (His last name’s spelling is bothering me. Second “a” or no second “a.” If anyone can get a message to Edwin and ask him, mucho gracias en advancemiento.) Hit two home runs on Sunday. I have him on a lot of teams. I hope this is the beginnings of a hot streak.

Carlos Ruiz - Or as he will now be known, Chuck Ruiz. As in chuck him to the waiver wire. Go Doumit, Mathis, Napoli, etc. It’s three weeks; Chuck Ruiz is being abandoned on my teams. He’ll be on the waiver wire, we can go back later if he starts to hit.

Adam Dunn - If anyone’s worried he’s going to hit under .200 for the season, I’d trade for him in a second.

Scott Baker - Going into the season, I pointed out to all of youse in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. So far this year, it’s 20/4. That’s really good.

Jonathan Sanchez - He strikes people out and in his next start he gets the Reds in SF. Yeah, he should be on your team for at least Friday’s start.

Eric Gagne - Fatty-No-Roids got hit. He was used four straight days, so it’s not anymore of a harbinger than the whole injury-prone thing. The Brewers really, really want him to succeed, so know that as Riske sits on your staff.

Chase Utley - My pick for NL MVP is looking good thus far. Not many of my other picks look so great. BTW, if you haven’t entered that contest yet, there’s still time.

Jair Jurrjens - I’m assuming after all of the times I’ve mentioned Jurrjens, you’ve already picked him up. If you haven’t, you should. Even when he lost this year, he looked good.

Milton Bradley - He hit a home run off Wakefield today. Whatever, just yesterday he was sitting with a sore knee.

Paul Konerko - He was actually dropped in one of my ‘pert leagues. I don’t understand that. It’s still very early in the season. I’m going to try and get him off of waivers, but since all the other ‘perts read this, I probably won’t get him. So why say anything? If you have him, bench him, but don’t drop him. It’s still early.