Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the top 20 closers, I have now recapped yo’ ass on top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen, top 20 outfielders for 2008,the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, top 20 starters and the top 40 starters. I ranked twenty closers back in January of 2008, then I updated that list about four times before the season started. My point, closers are constantly changing and, if you’ve read Razzball at all, you know I’m one of the biggest save vultures around. I rarely pay for saves. That’s not to say I don’t end up with decent closers. I had Lidge, Soria and Valverde on some teams. They all had great closer seasons, but they weren’t top ranked closers coming into the season. Closers are saves. SAGNOF. Period. That’s it. Once you wrap your head around the fact that Joe Nathan and Salomon Torres are the same player, the better off you’ll be. Rudy and I disagree on this point. Whatever. We agree on plenty other things, including his fantasy baseball player rater. (Instructions on use of the player rater.) Anyway, here’s the top 20 Closers for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Mariano Rivera - I said 40 saves and he got 39. Now bow! Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/2.75/1.10/70, 40 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-5/1.40/.67/77, 39 Saves

2. Francisco Rodriguez - I said he’d get 45 saves and he got 62. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  6-2/3.00/1.25/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.24/1.29/77, 62 Save

3. Joakim Soria - Just because I didn’t rank him doesn’t mean he wasn’t on any of my teams or that I didn’t like him. I just saw no reason to rank him in the top twenty back in January of 2008. In March, when I did one of my closer posts, I did move him into the top 20. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-3/1.60/.86/66, 42 Saves

4. Jonathan Papelbon - If I were the type to grab a top closer, and I’m not, I would take Papelbon. Not for his dancing. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  5-0/1.10/.75/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/2.34/.95/77, 41 Saves

5. Joe Nathan - Lots consider this dooode the number one closer. I could see that. I’ve only had him on one team ever, when he was a middle reliever on the Giants. I’ll probably have him on another team in a couple of years when the shine is off of him. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  6-1/1.90/1.00/80, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  1-2/1.33/.90/74, 39 Saves

6. Jose Valverde - I didn’t trust him much coming into the year, but many didn’t so I still ended up with him and he proved to be fine. I won’t trust him much going into 2009 either, but at certain prices he’s a buy. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/4.00/1.25/65, 30 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.38/1.18/83, 44 Saves

7. Brad Lidge - I liked him coming into the year as a solid bounce back candidate. (Notice how I said bounce back and not Comeback. WTF? How does he win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Kerry Wood? Yeah, I can see that. Cantu? That makes sense. Lidge? In 2007, he had a 3.36 ERA. Do the reporters who vote for this shizz even bother to look at stats? Let me guess, Lidge blew a save in the postseason in 2005 so he’s the Comeback Player this year. Moving on before I stick my head in the oven.) Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  3-3/3.25/1.20/90, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-0/1.95/1.23/92, 41 Saves

8. Kerry Wood - I couldn’t have been any more down on Wood coming into the season, but I still had him on three different teams. Am I not practicing what I’m preaching? Nah, fool. A) Wood’s stock was way down according to everyone so I got him at a discounted rate. B) There is no B, don’t you hate that? (Note: Back in January of 2008, I ranked the “Cubs Closer” 20th and my preseason predictions were Nice stats/Boatload of saves.) Final Numbers:  5-4/3.26/1.09/84, 34 Saves

9. Brian Fuentes - With closers you have to know your strengths, my strength is I grab fill-in closers before most people. This helps when you don’t draft any “good” ones. With that said, I had Fuentes on almost all of my teams. (Note: I predicted this for Corpas, 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.) Corpas Ranked #18, Final Numbers:  1-5/2.73/1.10/82, 30 Saves

10. Francisco Cordero - His WHIP says he got a bit lucky. 78 Ks says he was doing something right. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  2-5/3.50/1.20/65, 35 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/3.33/1.41/78, 34 Saves

11. Kevin Gregg - Here’s one closer I actually steered clear of because of his walks in 2007. He ended up being fine this year, but he wouldn’t be this high if it wasn’t for some vulture wins. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-8/3.41/1.28/58, 29 Saves

12. Bobby Jenks - Not a big fan of Jenks so I didn’t have him on any teams. As they taught me to say in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, his lack of strikeouts are a concern. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/3.00/1.00/65, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  3-1/3.63/1.10/38, 30 Saves

13. Carlos Marmol - This hombre’s gonna be great. ¿Ya que si es verdad? I ain’t no Mentirosa. Final Numbers:  2-4/2.68/0.93/114, 7 Saves

14. Billy Wagner - I warned you four months before the season that Wagner’s end was near. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  2-3/3.75/1.35/70, 25 Saves, Final Numbers:  0-1/2.30/0.89/52, 27 Saves

15. B.J. Ryan - He went unranked in January because he hadn’t even thrown from 40 feet yet. Get over yourself. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-4/2.95/1.28/58, 32 Saves

16. Salomon Torres - I will simply point out that I didn’t rank Gagne either. Put that in your sucky pipe and smoke it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/3.49/1.35/51, 28 saves

17. Brian Wilson - Wilson ended up notching way more saves than I thought he would and he was also way more erratic in his ratios. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/2.50/1.05/65, 20 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/4.62/1.44/67, 41 saves

18. Trevor Hoffman - My grandpappy told me about this time that Trevor Hoffman struckout “Castor Oil” Boyd to win the Governor’s Trophy and single-handedly stop The Crimean War. Our grandparents sure knew who to close games. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  3-2/3.50/1.15/40, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.77/1.04/46, 30 saves

19. Grant Balfour - Good for Balfour for ranking this high and but let’s not forget all of the other middle relievers who forfeited their spot so Balfour could have some glamour — Shields, Wheeler, Dotel, Okajima, Qualls and “Waking” Joey Devine. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-2/1.54/.89/82, 4 Saves

20. J.P. Howell - If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son make the top 20 closer list. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.22/1.13/92, 3 Saves

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain, Jose Veras)
5. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
6. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields, Justin Speier)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
9. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Joe Beimel)
10. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
11. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
12. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
13. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
14. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
15. Frank Francisco, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
16. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
17. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
18. Chris Perez, STL (Ryan Franklin, Chris Carpenter)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and broke Pena’s thumb with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Matt Capps/John Grabow, PIT (Denny Bautista)
21. Brad Ziegler, OAK (Huston Street, Joey Devine)
22. Jensen Lewis, CLE (Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez)
23. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth)
24. J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
26. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
27. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
28. Luis Ayala, NYM (Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Al Reyes, Duaner Sanchez)
29. Matt Lindstrom/Joe Nelson, FLA (Kevin Gregg)
30. Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, Jim Palmer, Senator Clay Davis, BAL (George Sherrill)

Shaun Marcum, who decided to shit fantasy owners’ houses when he returned from his injury, was sent to the minors to work on his mechanics. Will return in September when rosters expand, but at this point you don’t want him deciding your fantasy championship. Drop him, unless your league is Cousteau deep. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Johnny Cueto - Removed after three innings with some soreness in his right triceps. Might be the last we see of Cueto this year. (Actually it should be the last we see of him.) This could bode well for next year, since it won’t allow Dusty to abuse his arm any further.

John Maine - Might get shutdown for the rest of the season. Even if he doesn’t, he shouldn’t be started in any leagues shallower than 15-team right now. As I told you, when he was pitching “decently” against the Nats and Pirates, all the walks will catch up to him and are a sign that things ain’t right. Well, they’re not right, he has a bone spur in his shoulder.

Alex Gordon - Headed to the DL with a torn quadriceps. Before he took his first swing in the big leagues, there were George Brett comparisons. There still are, but they’ve changed slightly. Now, “I saw Brett take a crap that could hit better than Gordon.”

Ricky Nolasco - 7 1/3 innings and 10 Ks. Been incredible for almost two months. I told you I liked him on July 2nd. If you didn’t grab him, you blame yourself. He’s still a too-many-innings concern.

Jack Hannahan - 2 HRs. He only needs twenty-three homers in September to have a respectable season. As they say in Scuba classes, don’t hold your breath.

CC Sabathia - 6 IP, 1 ER, but loss the win when Torres blew it. This is why I throw nine innings and 140 pitches every start!

Salomon Torres - Blown save, but Torres actually has been fine, just a bad break for CC and his owners.

Mike Cameron - 5-for-5 with a HR and a steal. I’ve been telling people to pickup Mike Cameron for a while now. If you don’t, that’s your bad.

Chris Dickerson - 2 HRs in last two games. I beat Dickerson into the ground when he was first called up. Again, there’s no reason why he should be on waivers in any league.

Robinson Cano - 4-for-5, HR. Batting about .310 since the All-Star break. One of these years, you would think, he has to put together a good season from April until October. I would think, at least.

Rocco Baldelli - 2 HRs in the last three games and batting .400 in last seven. I’m not saying drop anyone worthwhile for him, but this could be the start of something, especially if he starts at DH and if he runs the bases in a bubble.

Dan Wheeler - Blown save, but for those that missed it, it should’ve been a save, Riggans blew it. This denied Sonnanstine the club record for wins with 14, which is currently held by Roland Arrojo. Ah, yes, the storied history of the Tampa Bay Rays. (BTW, recently overheard in Tampa,  “When does spring training start? I miss baseball. Go Yankees!”)

Jo-Jo Reyes - Got pounded by the Cards yesterday. I like what he’s done in the minors and I still like him going forward, but if he doesn’t excel against the Nats in his next start… Well, he shouldn’t be on anyone’s team.

Carlos Beltran - 2 HRs, bringing his total to 19. Every year he somehow puts up a solid season, while simultaneously yawnstipating you.

Luis Ayala - Has only given up one hit in five innings with the Mets, which included a save and a win. Meanwhile, Heilman, Feliciano and others have continued to resemble a wart on the genital region of the Mets.

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Justin Speier)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Jose Veras, Damaso Marte)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
9. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
10. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
11. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
12. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
14. George Sherrill, BAL (Fernando Cabrera/Jamie Walker/Jim Johnson)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
17. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and C.J. Wilson– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Kinsler in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood, CHI (Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Billy Wagner, NYM (Eddie Kunz, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez)
21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Brad Ziegler, Alan Embree, Joey Devine)
22. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Al Reyes)
23. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
24. Brandon Morrow/J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya)
26. Masa Kobayashi/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
27. Chris Perez, STL (Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin)
28. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera)
29. C.J. Wilson/Eddie Guardado, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
30. Tyler Yates/John Grabow/Denny Bautista/Corky Thatcher, PIT

Someone who’s friends with Dr. James Andrews just sent him this email, “Yo, Grisly Andrews, quick question. Am I holding onto Hudson or should I pick up Campillo? Also, love to have you over again for dinner, but Mary says you can’t reconfigure a chicken from the bones and scraps. It freaks out the kids. Peace!” Let’s see, so far this year, Dr. James Andrews has seen Hafner, Marcum, McGowan, Estelle Getty, Mulder, Austin Kearns, Freddy Sanchez and now Tim Hudson. That is a Dean’s List of broken dreams and unfilled promises.  As we move into August, you have to make hard and fast decisions and go with the hot hands. So, with that in mind, I’ve already dropped Hudson. His injury sounds like it might need surgery. Even if it doesn’t, an arm injury on a guy who’s playing for a team that decided to pack it in sometime on Monday is not a good thing. In deeper leagues, I probably won’t wait longer than a few days to cut ties with Hudson. It was a good run while he was out there and it’s not goodbye, it’s see you maybe next year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada - Done for the year. You can go ahead and back date this to April.

Michael Young - Fractured his finger, but vows to be back in a week. I believe it. This guy is so set on getting 200 hits every year I could see him not wanting to score a winning run in an extra innings game just so he might get another at-bat and a chance at another hit. Let’s hope Young never gets to 3000 hits, because if you thought Wade Boggs’s induction into the Hall of Fame was boring, you’ve seen nothing. At least Wade’s speech had the “Is he going to mention Margo Adams?” factor and the “Is he going to start eating chicken?”

John Maine - Shoulder tightness forced him out of the game. In ten team leagues, he’s the next guy I cut. I’m looking at Ubaldo, Meche, Randy and Wandy. (BTW, Wandy should pronounce his name like it rhymes with Randy. Cuz that would be awesome, possum.)

Salomon Torres - Kazaam!

Casey Kotchman - HR yesterday, now 3 HRs in a week. And that’s one home run for every mention of him I’ve done in the past week. That’s my quota. He’s now off my list and I won’t mention him again.

Ian Snell - 7 IP, 4 ER and got the win. This was his second win since April 12th. Wow, what a razztastic season.

Jeremy Guthrie - 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks and the win. This performance bought him a two week reprieve on all of my teams. (Maine and Hudson’s injuries didn’t hurt either. I mean, they did hurt, so that aided in Guthrie’s reprieve… Oh, forget it.)

Mike Mussina - 5 IP, 6 ER. Currently reading The Corrections.

Kevin Slowey - Shutout, 6 hitter, 5 Ks. Great start, but I’m not looking at grabbing him in any league. Am I as smart as a 5th grader? You decide.

Alex Gordon - 3-for-4 with a HR. Also the HR was his first against a lefty all year (so of course it came on the bench in the few leagues where I still have him. Sonavabench!). To call Gordon a disappointment up until this point, would be like calling the Astros’ Randy Wolf trade questionable.

Adrian Beltre - 2 HRs. As I mentioned to my Nana and Popsie, Beltre is good in the 2nd half of the year even when he’s not good in the 1st half.

Zach Greinke - 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks and the win. I’d point out how I traded Melky to Rudy for Greinke three months ago, but Rudy’s 21.5 points behind me at this point so it would be cruel to point out anything to do with his team. I probably shouldn’t even be mentioning that he’s 21.5 points behind me. I definitely will not be mentioning that I’m also beating him in our Razzball league. By a lot.

Adam Jones - 3-for-6, 5 RBIs, HR. I think Michael J. Fox in “Lucky Man” summed it best when he said, “I became so intoxicated on the nectar of money and the ambrosia of unlimited possibility, that I fell completely under its influence, forgetting for a time that it wasn’t real.” So true, Michael J., but Adam Jones is for real. And has the best ESPN player photo to prove it.