Fantasy Baseball Advice

The deadline is here. Nobody has any money, but want top starting talent. Huh? Whatever happened to, you have to spend money to make money? Several big deals are coming. Haren and Oswalt top most teams wish lists. As I sat at the Yankee game on Friday, dancing in the rain(literally), I realized that you need two people to do the Kid N Play dance. Huge fail. I still can’t believe that it’s week 17 already for fantasy. Teams that are out of it you won’t hear from again until the draft next year. Top teams are trading pennies for dollars, and the middle teams are saying what about us. Not a great list of viable options this week, continue reading you’ll see, but that doesn’t mean that one start from one of these guys won’t help turn your 4-6 into a 6-4 week. It’s getting late in the game to try and make a move so you may have to start gambling if roster space is an ally. Here are the low end two start options for week 17 in fantasy baseball:

Dallas Braden (@ Tex vs. Lewis) (@ Chw vs. Floyd)
Someone tell Dallas that everyday is Mom’s day. Winless since May 9th. ERA hasn’t suffered, still under 4. May get start Sunday, which takes him off the list. ERA 2 runs higher on the road.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (@ Chw vs. Floyd) (@ Min vs. Liriano)
Hyphens are the Malachi of punctuations. Huge disappointment this year. ERA and win total are poor. Seattle is a team in turmoil, and the S.S Mariner is sinking, call mayday.

Jonathon Niese (StL vs. Garcia) (Ari vs. Haren)
Another fledging team, the Mets, are stumbling to the deadline with Minaya still as GM.  He has to have blackmail photos somewhere of the Wilpons. 2.89 ERA over last 10 starts, will get you 5 Ks per start.

Zack Duke (@ Col vs. DeLaRosa) (@ StL vs. Garcia)
First win since May in his last outing. I wanna like Pittsburgh, but they suck out loud. A peripheral nightmare. When was the last Pirate SP that you had to own? Yeah, that’s right, it was Oliver Perez in 2004.  Mercy.

Jon Garland (Lad vs. Billingsley) (Fla vs. Johnson)
Home cooked, numbers don’t lie. 2 starts at home and I’m buying. Has scuffled as of late, but he is still named Jon Garland. Rely on the facts here:  2 home starts, but temper expectations when chasing wins.

Jason Hammel (@ Phi vs. Blanton) (ChC vs. Dempster)
9 wins already, that’s pretty nice for a #3 guy, the Rox are going to go on a tear soon. 3 ERA in last 10 starts is nice. 3/1 K-rate is sneaky. 53 k’s in last 62 innings. ERA 2 runs higher on the road, so may be a sit at Citizens.

Jake Westbrook (Nyy vs. Vazquez) (@Tor vs. Litsch)
Probably only makes one start for the Wahoo’s, likely to be dealt. He will be a completely different pitcher in the NL, hop on early in deep leagues as he may be a trade deadline darling for the playoff push.

Randy Wolf (Cin vs. Arroyo) (@ Hou vs. Wright)
Seriously gets left in for 12 runs, against the Pirates, nonetheless. Ugh, fantasy ineptitude at its best. I miss the days of the Wolf masks and dancing around like Thriller when he pitched.

Brandon Morrow (Bal ve Bergesen) (Cle vs. Huff)
K/9 leader for starting pitchers. ERA is getting to a respectable level. Awesome matchups this week. Ride the Ks, wins should follow.

Joe Blanton (Col vs. Hammel) (@ Was vs. Atilano)
Name sounds like the guy who runs the neighborhood junkyard. Gives up way too many hits. Throws an 8 K game and then craps the bed, that’s fantasyspeak for waiver fodder.

Now’s the time that you realize your fantasy season is over and you start trading everyone to get Vernon Wells, because you think it’s the old Vernon, who didn’t steal 100 mil from the Blue jays. Come on, seriously. This is a marathon, not a walk to the fridge. As I previously stated SP is the hardest to forecast, wins especially. So have no fear and go crazy with the waiver wire and get yourself back in the “streaming” mood. Here is the week 2 starters who might not be owned in your league that may give you a huge gift basket full of joy with some left over peeps from Easter.

Jeremy Guthrie (TB vs. Garza) (Oak vs. Duchscherer)
This guy is like that last shot on a Saturday night.  You know you shouldn’t.  Your judgment is all screwy and you’re still looking for the grenade to bring home. Home/away spilts are fairly evenly bad, but Charm City is going to score some runs this year. Losing all games to date by one run.  Roll the dice on both starts.

Brian Matusz (TB vs. Niemann)( Oak vs. Anderson)
If he isn’t owned in your league, then you probably play in a 8 team league with all your uncles.  Pick him up posthaste in any league, any format.  May get Sonnanstine start one, and for the baseball purest start 2 may be a matchup of the best two young lefties in baseball.

Fausto Carmona (Tex vs. Harden)( CHW vs. Floyd)
Here is your wing man on Saturday night, who bought you that shot. This guy is a roster move enigma.  Lots of people bit on the ST hype, guess what? Tuffy Rhodes was also the number one pick up after day one of a baseball season. Two home starts are always a fave of mine. Shaky rollercoaster all season. Avoid.

Max Scherzer (KC vs. Hochevar) (@Sea vs. Rowland-Smith)
His last name makes Johnny Jolly want to be friends with him. Already pitched very effective against KC, but the Sunshine Band hits him pretty good. Second start is an easy call matchup-wise by name alone.  Will have a down start here or there and I’m predicting it against Seattle.

Luke Hochevar (@Det vs. Scherzer) (@Minn vs. Blackburn)
Is the barber to the “oldest profession” in the world, well phonetically he is. First start may wish you regretted even laughing at that joke, Minnesota’s new digs is going to be a pitchers’ park, but freezing. Not a personal fave of mine and I’m not big on either start.

Carl Pavano (Bos vs. Lester) (KC vs. Hochevar)
The “small market” wonder, started well vs. Angels.  Almost too well.  Versus the Red Sox isn’t going to be pretty. Will look completely different in second start. End of the week gamble if you’re behind and need a quality start.

Justin Duchscherer (@ Sea vs. Rowland-Smith) ( @ Balt vs. Guthrie)
Has the goods, just in a damaged box. Got torched by SEA earlier in week 1, albeit at Home. May get redemption road style. Like his chances more against Guthrie. Watch first start, and follow along.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (Oak vs. Duchscherer) (Det vs. Scherzer)
Big time deep sleeper for this year.  Will get a lot of favorable matchups in the AL West. Pitched okay vs. A’s first go around and the change of park serves him well. Not so nervous vs. Detroit as I should be. I’m taking a flier in most leagues.

Barry Zito (Pitt vs. Ohlendorf) (@ LAD vs. Kershaw)
Huge add in leagues after week one magic show.  Watched his start on DVR, looked awesome, like when Zito had wingmen called Mulder and Huddy. Grab ASAP, start one will probably be a 3ER in 6 innings kind of affair. I’d take that all day. Second is another sneaky good matchup of lefties.

Doug Davis (@CHC vs. Dempster) (@ Was vs. Hernandez)
Innings gobbler, got on the wrong end of a Colorado whooping stick again. Huge offensive potential behind him that can blow up. Can get you 7 Ks a game with a 5 era. I’m liking the second start better. Is an avoid for me for both starts.

Kevin Correia (Atl vs. Jurrjens) (Ari vs. Kennedy)
Pitched good enough to win vs. Arizona in week one.  His offense is garbage behind him.  2 starts at home for any Padres pitcher is a bonus. Favorably matchup in second start . Top add of the week or should be, hurry up.

Ross Ohlendorf (@ SF vs. Zito) (Cin vs. Cueto)
Another guy who pitched well enough to win.  I think it was Robot’s day off. Gets 2 okay matchups vs. teams that are offensive conundrums. A semi-risky add for anyone looking to juice up the chances for a week 2 victory.

Ian Kennedy (@ Lad vs. Kershaw) (@ SD vs. Correia)
Pitched great in week one by his standards.  2 road starts, one vs. C-Saw and another in Petco. What more needs to be said about the second start? I like him for 12 Ks this week and at least one win. Grab him like you stole it.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Lookout Landing.

1)  I’m actually pretty high on David Aardsma.  Others, not so much.  Lots of people are predicting a regression of sorts.  Which side do you fall on?

I like Aardsma, and I like that the M’s were able to recognize his potential and land him for nothing. With that said, while I expect him to remain a pretty good reliever, you have to expect some regression. I mean, you have to, right? He had one of the most extreme flyball rates in baseball and somehow only managed to allow four home runs. That’s not gonna last, especially when you keep in mind all the balls to the track he surrendered. Safeco and the defense will help him, but I could easily see his HR rate doubling. Best case, he survives the season looking only a little worse. More likely, he starts making people a little nervous, and there end up being whispers about Brandon League. With the fly balls and the walks, Aardsma kind of lives on the edge.

2)  I forget where I read it, but someone (I think it was a person, might’ve been a robot) said a great thing about Milton Bradley.  I’m paraphrasing — shoot, I can’t even remember where I read it — notice the Mariner fans’ excitement the day after the Mariners got Milton Bradley.  A year ago, the Cubs fans were excited about Bradley too. At one point, the Rangers were excited about Bradley.  The Padres were excited.  And so on.  Yet, it never ends well.  How will the Milton Bradley era in Seattle end?  What do you see from him this year?

I’d say it ended fairly well in Texas and Oakland, and San Diego has nothing but nice things to say about him. But anyway, it’s important to recognize the difference in environment in Chicago vs. Seattle. Here we don’t have that media, that manager, and those fans. Here we have Junior. If any situation is right for Bradley, it’s this one. I don’t expect him to remain perfectly healthy, and he’s not going to be a source of major power, but there’s no reason why he can’t end up at or around his career averages barring a mental meltdown. Better real-life player than fantasy player, probably.

3)  F-Her, Cliff Lee — Sweet!  Then what?  Give me what you think the Mariners rotation will be.

Obviously, everyone focuses on the 1-2, for good reason. Behind the two aces, we’ll go with Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and one of Jason Vargas/Doug Fister/Luke French/Garrett Olson. That’s the four-man competition taking place right now in Arizona. You’re a fantasy site, right? In that case, the only one of these guys worth considering is RRS, as he’s poised to take wonderful advantage of the ballpark and the defense yet again. If Jarrod Washburn can do what he did in 2009, RRS could, too. You can keep your eye on Snell, I suppose, but I’d keep an eye from afar.

4) We have our own thoughts on Verducci, but he did flag Felix Hernandez.  You have any concerns or would you like to tell Verducci where to shove his flag?

I actually discussed this very topic here on my own site.  (Note from Grey:  That’s actually a great article about Verducci that I think everyone should read.)  Bottom line: Verducci’s heart is in the right place, but his analysis is flawed, and the people who’ve investigated his theory haven’t uncovered an effect. So there’s no evidence that there’s anything to this. I will always be a little worried about Felix, but that’s because pitching is dangerous, and he’s my baby. I don’t think we have any reason to believe that his 2009 workload will have a negative impact on his 2010 performance.

5) If the Mariners GM, Jack Zduriencik, started an office fantasy baseball league, what would be the most non-traditional fantasy stat? A) UZR B) Speed to first C) Pitcher First Pitch Strikes D) FRAGU — Fielding Runs Against Glove Upside E) BABIP@SLVSAERLP – Batting Average for Balls In Play @ Sea Level vs. Arbitration-Eligible Replacement-Level Players

Probably OBP. Z isn’t a stats guy. Z is just smart enough to hire stats guys. If Tony Blengino started the pool, though, then we’re talking acronyms with things that aren’t even letters anymore.

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?