Fantasy Baseball Advice

In the preseason, I said Adam Lind could contend for the MVP.  Wow.  It’s almost like Matthew Berry put that thought in my head.  In a litany of dopey things I’ve said, that might take the cake, frost it and smush it into my face.  The Berry feeds the Grey (bad advice), the Berry feeds the Grey (bad advice)… Hi-ho, the marry-o… What was I thinking?!  In my defense, he didn’t have an ailing back when I said that flimflammery and I told you to drop him outright a few weeks ago.  Oh, well, that’s what you get sometimes from crazy predictions.  Just flat-out crazy.  Like I should be walking into traffic in a burlap sack crazy.  So the Jays added a third A to Lind’s first name, sending him to the minors.  Since he was hitting like an infant, it makes sense.  In his place, the Jays called up Yan Gomes.  What’s with people and the last name Gomes unable to spell John?  Yanny was hitting .359 with 5 dingers in Triple-A.  Whatever, right?  Well, he’s a catcher, so those are like MVP (dah!) numbers.  In AL-Only leagues, I could see grabbing him.  Right now, he’s behind J.P., Mathis, Lawrie and Encarnacion, but Lawrie’s got a suspension and Edwin just made an error and the Jays game doesn’t even start for 12 hours, so Yanny could see time all over the field.  Yesterday, he played third and went 2-for-3.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Lawrie – Unable to decide on the shadow coat rack or just bad calls, he dropped his appeal.  He is also practicing counting to ten before blowing his top.  As soon as he figures out what comes after 6 it should be a breeze.

J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  I think he leads my RCL team in homers.  Now I will cry.

Mat Latos – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks which equals a pretty mediocre start in Metco.  This was his chance to string three quality starts together.  At best, that chance only comes around once every three starts!

Lucas Duda – I didn’t mention it yesterday when he had a 3-for-4 day because I wasn’t sure if it would be a 3-for-4 day followed by a 1-for-4 day or a 3-for-4 day followed by a 3-for-4 day or a 2-for-5 day.  It turns out that 3-for-4 day became a 2-for-5 day and now he looks like he’s a hot schmotato again.  And, sorry, I think my 3-for-4 day record is scratched; it keeps repeating.

Ike Davis – 0-for-2 to lower his average to .164.  He’ll be fine.  He has his family’s support.  You know who I really worry about?  That poor soul who drafted Hosmer and Ike Davis.

David Wright – 2-for-2 with his 4th steal.  I pledged a nickel to Jerry Lewis’s Kids for every time I mention Wright.  We’re up to fifteen cents.

Dayan Viciedo – 1-for-4 with his 6th homer and 3rd in the last 4 games, and hitting .381 in the last week.  As we know, Viciedo is Latin for I Swing Therefore I Am, and he’s living up to that.  In 118 ABs, he has 32 Ks and 3 walks, but if he’s swinging a hot bat, what do you care?

Chris Sale – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks as the White Sox let him throw 102 pitches.  Could someone help the White Sox tie their shoes because they’re wearing kid gloves?

Josh Reddick – 2-for-5 with his 10th homer.  I wouldn’t use Reddick’s towel to dry my hands, but I’m sure enjoying him on our teams.

Adam Wainwright – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Far from a beautiful outing vs. the Melky-led Giants.  “Yo, Giants fans, you got Melky in your three hole.  Y’all is spoiled!”  That’s a Padres fan talking.  If you heard this week’s podcast, Rudy and I discussed Wainwright with some favorable mentions and whatnot.

Allen Craig – Out for a few days with a tight hammy.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit the DL.  Poor guy, can’t have nothing nice with his health around.  It’s like Chipper Jones is his mentor. “Now, when you get out of bed, you’re gonna feel your quad tighten up.  That’s totally natural.”

Matt Carpenter – 3-for-5, 2 runs as he got the start in right field with Berkman back in the lineup.  He should continue to see starts with Craig pulling a Craig.  I’m also convinced that the Cards could put anyone in their lineup and they’d hit.

Charlie Culberson – The Charlie Culberson Era has officially begun!  That’s almost as electrifying as TBS’s George Lopez Era.  Charlie Culberson sounds like he has grit and other intangibles, but for s’s and g’s let’s see what tangibles he has.  This year in Triple-A, he hit 5 homers with a steal.  The year before in Double-A, 10 homers, 14 steals.  His glove’s a bit sloppy, i.e., Charlie Culberson makes fielding grounders cumbersome (say that fast 117 times!).  Sounds nice for fantasy, right?  Yeah, he might also hit .210.  Charlie Culberson not only has a name that only sounds right if you say the whole thing, but he also hasn’t seen too many pitches he doesn’t like.  In NL-Only leagues, you can find worse — like the other schmohawks the Giants were playing at 2nd.  In mixed leagues, let’s see how ol’ Charlie Culberson plays out.

Trevor Plouffe – 1-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  Plouffe goes the dynamite!

Justin Morneau – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Don’t sleep on Morneau!  Seriously, because if you guys knock heads while laying on top of him, you may seriously hurt him.  If you really need a corner infidel, I’d go ahead and grab him.  Of ghrabi him, if you like things spelled to look like they’re in the Middle East.

Matt Capps – Perfect inning to notch his 8th save.  I’m totally jinxing him by even talking about him, but I remember distinctly during our RCL draft (after ending up with Cano instead of Votto!), Rudy saying to me how Storen and Valverde were the solid closers that I drafted, but how I’m gonna regret Capps.  This year more than most, it just proves SAGNOF!  Draft three closers, pray they work out and don’t overpay for them.

Mark Trumbo – 4-for-4 with a steal (hitting .370) while Pujols hit his 3rd homer and 2nd in as many games.  It only took Scioscia 39 games to figure out a lineup!  Don’t worry, it’ll take the Sciosciapath only a day to forget.   Oh, and good luck on buying low on Pujols now.  Oh, Part II:  The Return Of Oh:  This Pujols turnaround all started with the firing of the hitting coach.

C.J. Wilson – 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners (6 BBs), 3 Ks.  Fire the pitching coach!

Mitch Moreland – 2-for-2, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and 2 jacks.  Don’t you despise people who call homers jacks?  It’s not as bad as people who use the word uber, but it’s not far off.

Ryan Roberts – 3-for-5 yesterday, and, since his Creeper of the Week post on Monday, he’s 7-for-18 with a steal and two new tats.

Justin Upton – 1-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer to raise his average to .224.  If you had thoughts of buying low, time could be slipping, slipping, slipping into the frontal suture.  Damn you, Autocorrect!

Trevor Bauer – Was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A yesterday as he slowly makes his way to the majors.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Bob Sugar read it and gave me a thumbs up.

Orlando Hudson – Was released by the Padres.  You know who’s ears are perking up?  Brian Sabean.  He likes his meat aged, jerky!  I wish Orlando Hudson the best; I always loved his mom, Florida Evans.

Carlos Ruiz – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs and a steal.  He’s doing better than my Utility man in the RCL.  It’s sad, because it’s true.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  That’s his first homer since April 27th.  That’s a long delay on the snooze button.

Brandon Beachy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks to lower his ERA to 1.33.  Pretttay, pretttay good.  He could be a top ten starter this year, and that guy that has an ERA around 2.50 in September.  With Beachy, it’s no shore thing, but ride the wave.

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks as he was beat by a Barajas homer.  Or as J-Z would say B*****s.

Dee Gordon – 0-for-3, lowering his average to .207.  If he doesn’t turn it around, we’re about ten days away from him being demoted.

James McDonald – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Five and two-thirds and only 5 baserunners with 11 Ks but 3 earned?  That doesn’t even seem possible.  Raw deal, J-Mac.  A’ight, real talk, guys and 4 girls, McDonald used to be a top prospect.  It was a while ago now, but maybe he’s putting his shizz on lock.  You feel me?  Okay, you’re just touching the computer screen; you’re not actually feeling me.  McDonald has around a 8 K/9, a strong FIP (2.88), and his walks are in check.  If Mickey D’s is out there, I’d absolutely grab him.

Andrew McCutchen – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  He’s going for the record of most homers with the least amount of RBIs.  The Pirates are doing all they can to support that record-setting goal.

Matt Moore – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Red Sox.  I’m sure this was a bit of a sonavabench for a bunch of you, but I’d much rather have a struggling starter do well on my bench than continue to stink up the joint.

Ricky Nolasco – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Aw, how sad, he was Rudy’s streamboat in the RCL.  Oh, wait, he benched him.  Sonavawishhewasn’tbenched!

Jose Altuve – 3-for-5 and his 8th steal.  I asked Rudy the other day if he thought Altuve should start being dropped in 12 team leagues.  His words were something like, “He’s a .300 hitter with 25 steal speed at the top of a lineup, what do people want from an MI?”

Doug Fister – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks and took the loss as he ran into the hot-hitting Twins.  I’m not completely joking either.  They actually have scored some runs of late.  Though, Mauer, who’s hitting .265, sure hasn’t been involved.

Welington Castillo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his first homer.  You think he gets this a lot, “Where’s the beef, Welington?”  Probably not.  I’m not going to say he’s a better option than Geovany Soto.  That’s obvious.  Soto has a bad case of can’t-hit-to-save-his-life-itis and a sore knee.  Welington had 15 homers last year in Triple-A.  Right now, he’s just for two catcher leagues, but I could see him stealing more time from Soto even when the latter gets healthy.

Johnny Giavotella – 1-for-4 to raise his average to .176 as the Guido played over Hosmer.  Sadly, it makes sense.

Brian Matusz – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. Luke Hochevar – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  That sounds like a tailor-made matchup for some fingercuffing that didn’t work out great for either finger.

Dustin Ackley – 1-for-5 with a steal.  Hey, his cleats arrived from Japan!

Brandon League – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  And on the fourth day, God said only Fernando Rodney and Jim Johnson can close with ERAs under 3.

Ichiro Suzuki – 0-for-6 to lower his average to .278.  Doode got old fast, right?  It’s my Morita Law of Asian Ages.  Pat Morita was young and spry on Happy Days, then five years later as Mr. Miyagi he looked ancient.

Hector Noesi – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks to lower his ERA to 5.61.  On a side note, I wonder if Carlos Beltran would pay for Jon Niese to have his last name changed to Noesi.

Jesus Hamilton Christ, has anyone ever been that hot? After contributing a .467 AVG with 9 HR and 18 RBI this last week, if you Hamilton owners somehow managed to lose your matchup I feel bad for you son, you got 99 problems and a bitch ass offense is one of them. Anyone who owns Hamilton, Beltran, and McCutchen and lost should probably just give up on anything that possesses any element of chance. You’re cursed. For fantasy owners who aren’t blessed and don’t have a player (or 3) who turns into God doing a Babe Ruth impression for an entire week, and/or you’ve got a spot in your lineup you need to fill due to injury or a slump, at this point in the season you’ll need to employ the services of a player with some warts or who has otherwise underperformed.

Enter Ryan Roberts, week 7′s Creeper. Owned in 36% of ESPN leagues and 29% of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday evening, he’ll get 7 games on the road in the coming week, with 4 (more likely 3) scheduled to come against LHP. The four lefties scheduled to face Roberts and the Dbacks are Clayton Kershaw, Jamie Moyer, Danny Duffy, and Bruce Chen. To paraphrase Al Michaels, Danny Duffy left Sunday’s game with an elbow, the second time in less than a month that he’s dealt with tightness; I can’t imagine he’ll take his turn in the rotation. Chen is a favorable matchup for Roberts, a pitch-to-contact lobber allowing plenty of flyballs (47%) and line drives (20%) to right-handed bats. Moyer scouts very similarly (42% FB, 20% LD), and features a fastball that is slower than the speed limit in some areas of Texas and Utah. Pitching in Coors, he’s the most likely target for a Roberts HR this week.

Despite a minor league track record of strong BABIPs, Roberts has suffered a below average mark of .277 in the big leagues, thanks in part to a high flyball tendency. He also falls victim to the infield pop-up from time to time, and if you pop-up with any regularity your average will suffer. He does hit his fair share of line drives, though – 20.4% career – and with a K% a notch better than league average (17.8% career, 15.9% this season), a blessing from the luck fairies would leave him with a .280 AVG or so. In OBP leagues, his 11% career walk rate makes him a more reliable option. As is pretty standard for RHH, Roberts fares well against opposite-handed pitching, sporting a .265 AVG with 14 HR in 325 career AB.

With 3, perhaps 4 LHP on the ledger and Coors on tap, this week is as good as any for Roberts to have a couple of hits fall in and a flyball or two find the bleachers to correct his early season misfortune (.213 BABIP, 5.6% HR/FB). Hitting 6th and 7th in recent games may limit his runs potential a bit, but just might be a green light to steal a base or two in order to create some offense at the bottom of the order. Rickie Weeks owners wary of his wrist ailment or those with a rotating MI spot should look to Roberts to supply a solid return on their investment.

I have a secret to share with you (You: ‘Despite being the producer of Entourage, you still call Mark Wahlberg Marky Mark?’‘ Me: ‘Yes, but that wasn’t the secret I was referring to’).  My secret is 2B is chalk full of value plays this year.  There were so many overvalued players going into 2011 that busted, we’re left to buy low on multiple candidates this year.  A look over at Mock Draft Central tells me that a guy that gave us 21/16 and a bad average last year is worth 7 rounds less than a guy that went 21/17 with a bad average.  We’re talking about Kelly Johnson (ADP: 236) vs Danny Espinosa (ADP: 148).  That’s crazy glazed with a WTF and garnished with an LOL.  I can only guess having a girl’s name is the reason for the price tag difference.  In a perfect draft, I have Dan Uggla on my team and am taking either Johnson or Espinosa but would settle for a BA friendly Brandon Phillips over Uggla in that situation as well.  Because of the depth, I’m most likely avoiding the top tier 2Bs unless they fell to me.

I’ll Avoid:

Dustin Ackley – Don’t get me wrong, I like the kid and think he’s going to be a solid contributor this year and beyond but is he THAT much better than the guys behind him on the ADP list?  Solid average, low to mid-teen HR power to go with 10 to 15 steals.  ‘But he won’t hurt me anywhere’ you say.  ‘But he’s not your father’ I say ‘and I suggest you get therapy’.  Unless he’s your first 2B, you should already have a solid 2B on your team.  Live a little more dangerously and aim for higher counting stats later in the draft.

Ryan Roberts – Here’s a player I like more in real life than I do in fantasy.  I also enjoyed the movie and book series they did on him: The Second Basemen With Alotta Tattoos.  Roberts strikes me as a guy who could give Kelly Johnson numbers this year or could fall back into super-utility obscurity by the All-Star Break and compete with Willie Bloomquist for ABs.  I’ll go with the 2B that has more history and a cheaper ADP in that case.

I’ll go for:

Jose Altuve – If I’m still stumping for a 2B in the 20th round of the draft, I’ll gladly take Jose.  Altuve – Venezuelan for ‘Doomed to be an Astro’ – is getting the discount price because he plays for a Triple-A team.  It’s not his fault he’s major league ready and the rest of Houston is not.  Altuve has four things going for him: he should steal 20 bases, hit for a decent average, be near the top of the order, and there’s no one in Triple-A that could reasonably replace him.  Because the Astros are a Triple-A team already.  Didn’t we go over this already?  Dead.  Horse.  Beat.

Marco Scutaro – I’ve never drafted Scutaro before.  I may not even this year.  In fact, I have made fun of just about everyone and anyone in my league who’ve drafted him over the last 5 years.  That all said, what’s the difference between Ackley’s projections and Scutaro’s?  1 or 2 HRs and probably 10 steals.  Similar RBIs, similar Runs, similar average.  Only thing that’s not similar is their ADP as Scutaro is going after the 20th round.  Plus he’ll get to play half his games in Colorado in front of Tulo & CarGo.  I have no problem playing Marco Scutaro at the deep end of the draft pool.  Just don’t pull my trunks down while I’m at it.

2B Situation to monitor: Chi-Cubs

I will lead this off by saying yes, I know and understand this one is a stretch.  That’s why I say monitor, don’t buy in.  Sheesh, its like telling you JC Penney has a 50% off sale this weekend and you go camp out on Tuesday without finding out its just for lingerie.  Not that there’s anything WRONG with that…Anywho,  Chicago currently has the Purple Evolutionist, Darwin Barney, starting at second base.  If that doesn’t bore you, I have a recording of grass growing in slow motion for you to watch; the soundtrack is by Kenny G.  In February the Cubs picked up Adrian Cardenas off the wire when they waived Blake DeWitt.  Once considered a top 100 prospect, Adrian just never put a full season together.  At 6′, 205 pounds you’d think and hope for more power but he’s only 24 and does have pedigree on his side.  With Chicago rebuilding this year, Cardenas might get his shot if Darwin proves to be as sleep-inducing as he was last year.  We’re still in Spring training.  Long live hope!

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – UPDATE:  OUT FOR THE YEAR You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

Top 20 catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen for 2011 are in the books.  We continue around the horn (that means we’ll go back for the shortstops; don’t ask, I was getting fancy) bringing us to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.   This year 3rd base gave most of you the gas face.  For the most part, you were lucky if you didn’t draft a top ranked one cause most of them bombed.  I mean, Emilio Bonifacio is a top five 3rd baseman?  That’s an eff in the coolie if I’ve ever heard one.  Zimmerman, Longoria, Wright?  Made you look smart in opposite world.  Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Jose Bautista – A very wise monkey once said, sometimes when you go out on a limb, the branch breaks.  To use limb in another sentence:  I don’t think it’s much of a limb when I say Bautista was my biggest snafu since I started this blog.  I really didn’t believe him at all.  The kicker was usually when I Mr. Bungle a player as bad as I did with Bautista, Rudy will correct me, but he punted Bautista too, so I wasn’t even counterbalanced.  I can’t say this for sure, but it seems like most ‘perts don’t give a flying elbow if they make right or wrong calls, but I will say Bautista taught me one thing.  I don’t like being wrong; it really annoyed me that I mucked him up.  Now watch next year when I project him for 40 homers, he’s gonna hit 12 and make me into a Mr. Bungle once again.   Preseason Rank #12 (Yes, I was that much a non-believer; I had Pedro Alvarez above him.  I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.), 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5, Final Numbers:  105/43/103/.302/9

2. Michael Young – Went over Young in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

3. Adrian Beltre – I was pretty accurate with my mid-tier 3rd basemen preseason ranking.  Beltre, Young, Reynolds, Alvarez, Aramis and McGehee turned out as I thought they would, minus McGehee and Alvarez, obviously.  Unfortunately, I ended up with Alvarez and McGehee on more teams than I care to admit.  Alvarez, in particular, killed me.  This, however, is supposed to be about Beltre.  As soon as he signed with the Rangers, any trepidation I had went out the window.  Man Standing Outside My Metaphorical Window, “Stopping throwing trepidation on me!”  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  82/32/105/.296/1

4. Aramis Ramirez – Here’s one way to look at how pee poor the 3rd basemen were.  I pretty much nailed Aramis’s projections with his final numbers and I ranked him 11th and he finished 4th.  That, more or less, means seven 3rd basemen bombed.  Also, more or less should be one word.  Moreorless — doesn’t that look better?  You’re welcome, English language; I’m fixing you.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280, Final Numbers:  80/26/93/.306/1

5. Emilio Bonifacio – There’s nothing I can say that will illustrate how bad the 3rd basemen are that can’t be said by just seeing how high Bonifacio ranked here.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/5/36/.296/40

6. Jhonny Peralta – After looking like a lock for 20+ homers and a .270 average back in 2008, he wrestled with major league pitching like I wrestle with his superfluous H.  Due to some luck, his average was about 20 points too high, but everything else seems right in line with what he can do.  He’s ranked this high because 3rd basemen sucked this year.  Have you heard that before?  Yeah, thought so.  Preseason Ranked #16 for Shortstops, 2011 Projections:  65/17/80/.255, Final Numbers:  68/21/86/.299

7. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I compared him to an in-his-prime Lyle Overbay.  Still sounds about right.  Before you scoff, scoffer.  Lyle Overbay’s best year 82/22/92/.312/5 was better than this year by Sandoval.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3, Final Numbers:  55/23/70/.315/2

8. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds in the top 20 1st basemen post.

9. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

10. Evan Longoria – I may still rank Longoria in the 1st round next year.  Absolutely nothing changed for him except his luck fell off the map.  If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would’ve had no luck at all.  His K-rate actually went down, his walk rate went up, his HR/FB% stayed where it should be.  I may even pick him to win the MVP next year.  I will probably say some variation of the preceding a dozen times this offseason, so if you missed this, don’t worry.  And if you read the preceding, forget it so it seems fresh the next twelve times I say it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/33/115/.280/10, Final Numbers: 78/31/99/.244/3

11. Edwin Encarnacion – On one hand, I can’t believe Encarnacion ranked this high.  On the other hand, it’s more of an indictment of the 3rd basemen because his numbers don’t look that good.  On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on the end of a broomstick, he was valuable in the 2nd half of the year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/17/55/.272/8

12. Chipper Jones – He didn’t go unranked in the preseason because I overlooked him.  He was coming off a year when he nearly retired from injuries.  In fact, I think he did retire then decided to come back, if I remember it correctly.  Whatever.  Glass Chipper hits when he’s healthy but that ‘when’ is the size of King Kong Bundy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  56/18/70/.275/2

13. Alex Rodriguez – It totally bit me in the ass saying I wanted a 3rd baseman in the first two rounds of last year’s drafts.  3rd base was my cross to bear, or bare if you’re a nudist.  A-Rod, Wright and Zimmerman were off the charts terrible.  Sure, A-Rod had the decency to get injured so you could replace him, but who were you replacing him with?  Wilson Betemit?  David Freese?  Bleh and Belch.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  90/32/110/.280/7, Final Numbers:  67/16/62/.276/4

14. Kevin Youkilis – It’s easy to say this was an off season for Youuuuuuk, but, at age 32, this could be the beginning of the end.  This is the third year in a row that he’s failed to top 136 games and the 2nd year in a row he didn’t hit 20 homers.  On a side note, here’s what I said in the preseason about Youk, “Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  …Do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Sure, that was about 1st basemen, but it mentioned Youk so I included it here.  Sue me for your zero dollar subscription fee.  Preseason Rank #8 for 1st basemen, 2011 Projections:  95/27/95/.300/5, Final Numbers:  68/17/80/.258/3

15. David Wright – It wasn’t just that the 3rd basemen were bad this year, but it was worse than that.  The good 3rd basemen weren’t just less good so you still got some draft value.  Across the board, 3rd basemen killed you.  For the first time, I felt like Wright didn’t care either.  I get it, you can go 1-for-4 with a run.  How about you hit a home freakin’ run?!  I think Metco is in his head too.  If the Mets move the fences in only one foot, but told him they moved the fences in thirty feet it would have the same impact on his power.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  95/30/105/.285/17, Final Numbers:  60/14/61/.254/13

16. Daniel Murphy – Went over Murphy in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

17. Albert Callaspo – Was about as steady a performer as you can find with his 3 homer, 3 steal 1st half and 3 homer, 5 steal 2nd half.  This was an illustration of how being steady isn’t always a good thing.  Callaspo may have to replace Polanco in the yawnstipating definition.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  54/6/46/.288/8

18. Ryan Zimmerman – If a player’s season can be summed up by the company he’s keeping on the year-end rankings, look at the players around Zimmerman.  Callaspo’s above him!  Daniel Murphy had a better season than Zimmerman and he stopped playing on August 7th!  I’d say 2011 was a step back for Zimmerman, but it was more like a step back, then he fell into a ditch, then someone popped a squat above him and crapped on his head.  On a side note, I’m way off on a lot of these 3rd basemen projections, but I guarantee you all ‘perts are off with these guys.  No one could’ve told you Wright, Zimmerman, etc would’ve been this bad.  I only mention this because I think it’s ridiculous some people charge for their projections.  I could pretty much tell you what any player is going to do assuming their healthy, barring a few here and there like Bautista.  But guys like Bautista are me going on a limb.  I could’ve told you 35 homers and a .280 average like everyone else and been less wrong, but what fun is that?  Now someone help me down from my soapbox.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.285/5, Final Numbers:  52/12/49/.289/3

19. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

20. Chase Headley – If you ever wondered to yourself whether or not 3rd base was really as bad as it seemed this year, notice Chase Headley making the top 20.  Then notice he had 4 home runs on the year.  He only hit one homer at home all year.  All year!  On the positive side, he outperformed Casey McGehee.  Recurring Theme, “The third basemen were really bad this year.”  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7, Final Numbers:  43/4/44/.289/13