Who’s the guy who wrote up Jason Hammel the night prior only to see Dan Haren subbed in for him this morning while trying to set his season long and DFS football lineups. Two thumbs pointed back and me! Which is really hard to do when you’re typing at a rapid pace…hope you appreciate it! So we’re doing a mad scramble to find a lede and…I ain’t got one for ya, sorry. I don’t see a reason to change my analysis below and I really don’t feel like see a reason to flesh it out fuller with a hastily written blurby-mah-bob up here. Worst part? I really went in depth on how good it would be to play Jason Hammel! Teh Phils are teh suck! But they haven’t always been. But most times they are…eh, that was a synopsis as if written by a 13 year old. You’re welcome. Anyhoo, happy first Sunday of football for the 2015 season and happy overlay in baseball for us, amirite? Exactly, so let’s get to it. So here’s my Foosball hot takes for this Sunday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Yoenis Cespedes went 3-for-5 with his 31st homer and, like, his 12th homer in the past week.  Doode’s straight combustible heat.  Like a fatty steak on the grilling heat.  Uh-oh, I feel my rap altar ego, B-Fire, coming on.  Cannot stop the blaze.  Like a Scottish sheep, I can’t stand here, I gotta graze.  Between Monday and Tuesday is a hidden day called Muesday, between Monday and Sunday is all Grey’s days.  I watch a Merchant-Ivory period flick with my piece, because I’m strapped and going through a phase.  Shh, it’s my Victorian secret.  Whomp, there’s another Yoenis hit.  Cepedes is so on-lock it’s like he’s got a hundred legs all stuck in tar pits.  For my Def Poetry Jam audition tape, this I will submits.  I liked About Schmidt, but why Kathy Bates gotta get out of the tub naked with her flabby– Nah, I need to quit.  So, on the year, Yoenis has a line of 93/31/92/.298/7 and is nearly top five for all players on our Player Rater, not just top five outfielders, and, for 2016, it’s going to be real hard to knock him down much past the 2nd round.  Unless, of course, the Padres get their grubby mitts on him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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On this fine summer Sunday I will play the role of one Captain Obvious and tell you to start the best pitcher in baseball. I don’t condone buying the most expensive pitcher of the day regularly, but today it makes sense. Clayton Kershaw‘s ($14,800) opponent the Houston Astros have been the worst offense in the league the last 14 days. Posting the league’s lowest wOBA and highest strikeout percentage. So let’s put this together and really take it over the top shall we? Best pitcher in the game vs the lightest hitting lineup at the moment, that strikes out at the highest rate. Does this sound like a buying opportunity to you? If not, you can start Michael Wacha at San Diego for $11,000, and tell all your friends that you’re too cool for aces, and that you like Wacha’s matchup better. That’s cool. Or you could start both and fill your lineup with punts and platoon guys. Funny thing is some of my best lineups have been platoons and punts.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Much like the classic street hockey scene in Wayne’s World, Zack Greinke called time on his 43 2/3 inning scoreless streak to be with his wife for the birth of their first child. Congrats Zack, being a Dad is a gift and I commend you for putting everything aside to be there. But now that the important stuff is out of the way allow me to be the first to say “GAME ON”. What better gift for Zack to return to than a date with the anemic Mets offense. It’s like an extremely early Father’s day gift for Mr. Greinke. Only less like socks and more like an increased opportunity to extend that scoreless streak to 50+ innings. Now don’t get me wrong, even the Mets could score a run or two. Believe it or not, they’ve scored some before even as recently as yesterday. They don’t call them Amazing for nothing! But lets consider Mr. Greinke’s streak shall we? 43 2/3rds scoreless (one Mike Trout ASG tater notwithstanding), 42 strikeouts, 4 walks and just 19 hits. That’s sex watching Scarface! Why? Because that’s gangster! In what equates to nearly 5 full games Greinke has a nearly 2/1 strikeout to baserunner ratio. That’s Nintendo RBI baseball Nolan Ryan good. That’s Lance Armstrong with one ball on PED’s good. That’s $45 ribeye medium rare good. It’s good, really really good. I can’t promise the new pops keeps the Mets off the board today but I can tell you this….. Versus RHP the boys from Queens are 29th in weighted on base average and OPS. So there’s no better opponent to face outside of the Old Timers lineup they call the Phillies. Sure he costs $13,000 but the matchup and form couldn’t be better.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Max Scherzer against the Phillies. If there was ever a chance to redeem yourself in losing a perfect game on the last out the very next day, this would be the pitcher and the team to do so. From a daily fantasy perspective, I’ve always said that in order for a pitcher to pay for his price, he has to have a reasonable expectation of doing 2 things: Allow 3 runs or less, and strike out 1 batter for every thousand dollars you pay. You may ask why I don’t include innings or hits in this formula of mine, and it is a valid question. For one, if a pitcher has allowed less than 3 runs up to a certain point, he has a good chance of remaining in the game. Also, if a pitcher is going to strikeout plenty of hitters, he must pitch plenty of innings, therefore that basis is completely covered. I don’t worry about hits so much, because they tend to correlate with runs scored and high contact rates (which pitchers that strike hitters out typically don’t have). So this all begs the question, “is Max Scherzer worth paying 14K for on DraftKings?” My answer is no. Now to preface this, you will never find someone that lends themselves to the “pay for pitching” mantra than myself. The reason I say no does not boil down to one simple point, but rather to many. My first reason to avoid Scherzer is that while the Phillies are the worst in basically every hitting category ever, they actually don’t strike out that much. Even against one of the more strikeout prone teams such as the Astros or Cubs, I would have a hard time giving any pitcher the reasonable expectation to reach 14 strikeouts. Another reason, maybe even bigger so than the first, is the fact that there are so many other solid, high-upside options for 3-5K cheaper. So should you pay 14K for 14 Ks? Yes! Should you pay 14K for Scherzer today? No!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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It can be easy to watch home run hitters and otherwise high scoring bats get above 5K and then say, no way, that’s too high to roster that guy! But if the conditions are right, and these epically awesome, and otherwise game-changing hitters can be rostered easily after you’ve applied all the other goodness and value plays, then you should absolutely do it, even if you’re slightly “downgrading” another position.

Experts all the time find their values so they can take advantage of situations like rostering Stanton against a LHP or Harper against a homer prone RHP, as he was Tuesday against Alex Colome.

Limiting yourself mentally to excluding these players, regardless of situation, will leave you out of the money in a lot of tournaments. Bryce Harper is absolutely the mashiest lefty bat going right now and is posting obscene numbers against RHP (1.247 OPS, .432 ISO, .511 wOBA, 230 RC+), so why wouldn’t you want to make room? Cost is relative and if you have the right value, then it’s worth rostering a little lower somewhere else so you can fit someone like Harp in.

Tonight, Harper faces Matt Andriese at home in Washington, where Harper’s numbers against righties….actually tick up another notch (1.339 OPS, .515 ISO, .541 wOBA, 251 RC+). Sluggers and Sluggers…it’s the new Vote Early, Vote Often!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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It’s the oldest trick in DFS. Blah blah blah Rockies blah blah blah Coors blah blah blah all the money. It’s true. If you are the type to play multiple lineups in a day (as I do in low dollar contests), it behooves you to follow the blah blah and build a Rockies stack, as well as their opponent. Right now, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers, the same early season juggernaut that sees them second in road wOBA and tops overall against RHP.

Sometimes the Coors stack goes awry, but not in this series. It’s been some delicious soft serve home runs for many of the participants, largely due to the usual questionable Rockies pitching. Now Wednesday starter Chad Bettis has been better than most Rockies starters. After all, he does sport a spiffy 3.42 SIERA, which isolates the actual skills of the pitchers. He also has missed 10% of the bats he’s faced so far this season, a good measure of the man. Same for the other side, where Michael Bolsinger has surprised, sporting a shiny 3.14 SIERA of his own.

(Sidenote: For comparison sake, Corey Kluber has a 2.45 SIERA, Chris Sale a 3.08 and Mark Buehrle is saddled with a 4.64 number.)

So does that mean you shy away from the game? By no means! There are some excellent bats to target, provided they are playing. In the interest of staying away from this obvious stack below the weekly DraftKings contest invite, here are the names I am tracking for the game today, presented without comment:

Michael McKenry, C: $3,400

Ben Paulsen, 1B: $3,300

Alexander Guerrero, 3B/OF: $3,700

Andre Ethier, OF: $4,400

Joc Pederson, OF: $5,100

The other guys, like Troy Tulowitzki, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Gonzalez, I would love to roster and with some of the picks below, maybe you can fit them in without sacrificing starting pitching. Good luck!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Effin Strasburg hit the DL on Saturday, which came a day after he pitched five outs of one-run baseball. Compared to his previous starts, Effin looked remarkably better. If he threw 27 outs, that would’ve roughly been a five-run game and way below his ERA. I had the cork to pop and cigars to hand out, but he left that game with what he deemed neck tightness. Funny, because I have tightness in my chest when he pitches. I think it’s related. “Hello, Aetna service representative, a fine day to you, ma’am. I was just calling to see if I can take out extra health insurance on the ol’ ticker when Effin Strasburg is pitching. I can? That’s great news. Chirinos!” That’s me talking to my insurance provider. So, Stephen Strasburg has neck tightness as he hit the DL. His velocity has looked good, his BABIP is ridiculously unlucky, but his control is a mess. That would indicate to me that he’s a buy low, because his neck might be the reason behind his control problems. That was why I traded Jose Bautista for him in one league. *opens patio door, climbs to top of railing, jumps, lands in pool on top of inflatable shark* Dah! Right now, I wouldn’t do the same trade. Strasburg, or any pitcher, is too risky to trade for if injured. I’m hoping us Strasburg owners get him back in two weeks and he’s fixed. A prayer triangle anyone? Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I was in Baltimore yesterday, watching AL Cy Young winner Roenis Elias toe the mound for the Mariners. King Felix who? During the game, I was keeping tabs on my DraftKings lineup, which ultimately failed me in the end.

I was texting back and forth with my buddy, who is newer to DFS games. We have seemingly different strategies when it comes to setting our lineups, where I will always pay up for at least one stud pitcher and fine a bargain pitcher with upside for my second slot. He, on the other hand, prefers to find two cheap pitchers with strikeout upside. I explained my reasoning for how I do it. I feel that elite pitchers are the surest bet in fantasy, where even the best hitters get out seven out of 10 times at the plate.

It didn’t work for me yesterday, but you know what they say about trusting the process, right? That’s something I plan on doing, but when I look at the slate today, I get a little sick. There are only six games, but the pitching may be worse today than it has all year long.

Here’s hoping for the best.

Straight to the cash, homie.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.

But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.

In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.

Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.

It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.

Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.

The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?