Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew - I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay - I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado - Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez - Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora - Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez - Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier - Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit - You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta - See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu - I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady - Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa - You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis - I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin - Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff - Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth - You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton - To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia - Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick - Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

A commenter back in April or May or one of them spring months told us that Ryan Ludwick went by The Queen’s Assassin when he was down in the minors. The Queen’s Assassin was a nod to Ludwig from The Naked Gun — “I must kill the Queen…”  You know what having a Minor League nickname means? It means doooode was in the minors forever. Long enough to watch The Last Emperor. In 2008, Ludwick went from minor league journeyman to a late blooming flower.  Or some shizz romantic.  So what will Ludwick do in 2009? 80/32/95/.265. What, too direct? You were expecting me to beat around the bush? Nah, kid. That ain’t how Grey do. Bee-tee-dubya, Grey does talk about himself in the third person like Suede from Project Runway (he was robbed!). Ludwick’s average was a mirage, his power is for real. He can kill it like TJ Lavin. So if you want Andruw Jones circa 2002, The Queen’s Assassin would be a keeper for 2009. Unless! (Don’t you hate unlesses?) Unless Pujols is injured or elects for some sort offseason surgery, then we would need to reevaluate. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Josh Hamilton - Yeah, he’s injury-prone. And anime is only understood by the stoned or schizophrenic. So what’s your point?

Carlos Lee - This wasn’t a career-ending injury. Doode’s pinkie was hurt. Chillax and keep him.

DON’T KEEP

Magglio Ordonez - He’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old, 20 home run, .300 average hitter. One could argue that Magglio Ordonez is a better bet than Ludwick to be productive, but one could also argue OJ’s innocence. Doesn’t make it right.

Ryan Garko - Okay, V-Mart’s hurt so we’re going to play you and see what you have.  14 home runs in almost 500 at-bats? Hmm… No, thanks. We’d call you Matt Stairs Jr. but, you sir, are no Matt Stairs.

We’ve looked at top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008 and we’ve seen one recurring theme. Offense was waaay down in 2008 (That’s right, “way” with three A’s!). With the top 20 outfielders for 2008, the theme continues. You get a full-frontal shot of the outfielders’ offensive problems in 2008 when you look at Matt Kemp’s 2008 predictions and final stats. His preseason predictions were 95/20/75/.290/20 and he came in with 93/18/76/.290/35. His steals were a bit higher (another recurring theme), but I’m like Ms. mothereffin’ Cleo with these predictions. Seriously, bow down, non-mustachioed wo/man. Kemp gave you almost exactly what I predicted he would and I ranked him 36th, but he came in 10th. That doesn’t mean I’m a savant with predictions and an idiot with rankings. No, it means offense was waaaay down (Four A’s!). I was pretty close with my predictions for Manny too and he moved from 21st to 2nd.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Matt Holliday - 25 home runs in Coors? Zoinks! What happens if he’s traded? Does he hit 15 home runs and steal 35? Victorino called, he wants his stats back. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/125/.310/7, Final Numbers:  107/25/88/.321/28

2. Manny Ramirez - It’s just like Manny to leave a hitter’s park for a pitcher’s park and see his value skyrocket. The touring company of Rainman should consider casting Manny, he’s a natural. Imagine trying to read him for cheating at the blackjack table. It would be impossible. Actually, the one caveat is Manny couldn’t be in on it. If he knew he were cheating, he giggle uncontrollably. Preseason Rank #21, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.315, Final Numbers: 102/37/121/.332

3. Lance Berkman - Already went over Berkman in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #12, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/115/.310/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

4. Grady Sizemore - The Zagat Guide to Cleveland said, “The twelfth chapter of “The Akron Ladies Spread for Grady’s Baby,” were “happy” with his “numbers.” Calling him a “speed/power combo to make a jackhammer envious” and they’d like to sandwich him like the Rs on the word rawr.” Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  120/35/85/.290/30, Final Numbers: 101/33/90/.268/38

5. Carlos Beltran - Beltran was underrated on the Royals, then overrated on the Mets and now he seems to have found his way back to underrated. The only thing that remains the same, he can play a gay teenager with aplomb. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/110/.270/18, Final Numbers:   116/27/112/.284/25

6. Josh Hamilton - Fantasy baseball shot itself up on Hamilton for the fist half of the year, then, as with any good buzz, there were fewer thrills later on and mostly you were left trying to reclaim some of the past highs. Preseason Rank #38, Preseason Predictions:  70/27/80/.300/5, Final Numbers:  98/32/130/.304/9

7. Ichiro Suzuki - Here’s a monkey serving beer in Japan. With more and more monkeys waiting tables to make ends meet, it makes me wonder… Will more and more monkeys also try to make it as actors? Or will actors start being monkeys? Either way, go watch that monkey again. It’s wonderful! (You gotta love how he sneaks off to eat edamame. Monkeys love edamame — case closed.) Oh, bee-tee-dubya, Ichiro got some hits and some steals. Who saw that coming? Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  110/10/65/.330/45, Final Numbers:  103/6/42/.310/43

8. Ryan Ludwick -  Ludwick is the first completely out of nowhere outfielder. Last year, he hit more home runs in the major leagues than he hit at any stop in the minors, which is saying a lot considering he’s 30 years old and, like Gary Glitter, he’s been banging around the minors since 1999. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  104/37/113/.299/4

9. Ryan Braun - Already went over Braun in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. (Note: Braun was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In all fairness, I would’ve ranked him above Ryan Ludwick.), Preseason Predictions:  100/27/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  92/37/106/.285/14

10. Matt Kemp - Kemp’s 2008 was like Tom Cruise in Risky Business. It may have only been one movie, but you just knew more was on the way. Hopefully, in a few years, Kemp doesn’t hit a home run then begin to laugh like a madman while wearing five inch heals on his cleats. Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  95/20/75/.290/20, Final Numbers:  93/18/76/.290/35

11. Bobby Abreu - I’m convinced there’s no better way to go under radar in fantasy baseball than to have a 20/20 season as an outfielder. The Witness Protection Agency should reassign people into the major leagues and give them ten years of 20/20 seasons. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  120/15/110/.310/20, Final Numbers:  100/20/100/.296/22

12. Nate McLouth - We didn’t rank him, but Rudy did say on Opening Day, “(McLouth has) SB and Run potential. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.” And that’s me quoting Rudy! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  113/26/94/.276/23

13. Johnny Damon - Is it me or are Yankees suddenly being underrated and forgotten? Some sort of anti-Big Business/anti-ESPN thing going on here. Damon’s numbers were eerily similar to Alexis Rios and think about how many teams Rios clogged up. Seriously, think about it. I don’t see you thinking. There ya go. Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  105/15/70/.280/15, Final Numbers:  95/17/71/.303/29

14. Shane Victorino - Hamilton-Burrishly, Victorino and Rios dueled during the regular season to see who would hit more home runs, so it’s fitting that they should come in 14th and 15th respectively. However, The Flying Hawaiian provided a lot more value than Rios considering their ADP. (BTW, how about “Hamilton-Burrishly?” All the kids are gonna be saying that. As soon as they figure out what it means.) Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  115/15/60/.280/40, Final Numbers:  102/14/58/.293/36

15. Alexis Rios - At 15th overall for outfielders, Rios wasn’t as bad as, say, Carl Crawford, but still the power never came. Rios’s power numbers look like Jason Kendall having a Brady Anderson-type ‘roids season. (Minus the sideburns, of course. Speaking of sideburns, am I the only one not watching the new Beverly Hills, 90210? Actually, I should rephrase that, am I the only one not watching Beverly Hills, 90210 who thought they would definitely watch? I just have no desire at all. Now this is either because I’ve outgrown that demographic, which seems unlikely, since I Tivo three hour chunks of MTV and will watch a RR/RW Challenge rerun three times without getting tired of it. Or, and this seems more likely, the show is just lame. The new Brenda reminds me of a girl I would date and breakup with, and I never breakup with anyone. I leave a relationship kicking and screaming. The black kid is no longer running drugs for Marlo — where’s Snoop? The mom is hot. Mrs. Walsh wasn’t hot. WTF? Finally, their stories of kids doing drugs are trying so hard to be salacious. The original 90210 worked because the stories were cheesy with a goofy Steve Sanders runner. Where’s my goofy Steve Sanders runner?!) Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  120/32/110/.300/25, Final Numbers:  91/15/79/.291/32

16. Jacoby Ellsbury - In the beginning of the season, if I would’ve told you a Red Sox player would have 50 steals and not get to 100 runs, would you have believed me? What is going on with offense around the Major Leagues? When I’m putting together the ‘09 predictions, I’m going to have to put on the sweater that not only makes me look smart, but makes me think smart too. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

17. Jason Bay - I pushed Rios like those dudes on Las Vegas Boulevard handing out stripper flyers, while I warned you against touching Bay like the bouncers at those same strip clubs. Okay, so I made a few missteps in the predictions. Preseason Rank #34, Preseason Predictions:  crap/crap/and more crap, Final Numbers:  111/31/101/.286/10 or better than crap, as it were.

18. Carlos Quentin - I told you to watch him in February when he first reported to camp. Not sure why I didn’t rank him or make predictions for him. Maybe it was that one week frozen custard bender where I blacked out and woke up in the lap of some large woman wearing a skirted bathing suit. If it wasn’t for Quentin misplacing blame on his equipment, he prolly would’ve ranked higher and might’ve won the MVP. Nothing good will ever come of that temper of yours, Mr. Quentin. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/36/100/.288/7

19. Nick Markakis - The Greek God of Roto didn’t take the power to the next level like I hoped and stopped running completely in the 2nd half. He’s only 24 and you haven’t heard me say “I am Sparkakis” for the last time yet. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/115/.300/20, Final Numbers:  106/20/87/.306/10

20. Jermaine Dye - His lack of speed lands him at the 20th spot, but I’d prefer him to some of his schmohawk contemporaries… *cough* Rios *cough* Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/105/.280, Final Numbers:  96/34/96/.292/3

The Mets are like the seasons. When summer turns into late September, you can count on there being a fall. The “heroes” change every year. Last September, Reyes disappointed. The year before, Beltran took a Wainwright curve ball that had more of the plate than the pitchfork that Prince Fielder uses for dinner. This year, Reyes and Beltran finish strong, but the bullpen is “led” by Luis Ayala. Lucky for the Mets, they really don’t have enough prospects for Minaya to pull off a vaginal punch of a trade like Grady Sizemore/Cliff Lee/Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

CC Sabathia - Winner of the ‘rented mule’ award for the 2nd straight year.  Pitching on 3 days rest for the 3rd start in a row, he went 120+ pitches on Sunday to pitch the Brewers to the playoffs.  Hopefully this rented mule doesn’t get beaten in the playoffs like last year.

Any Hitters or Pitchers on the Tigers, White Sox and Twins - Yahoo doesn’t count tomorrow’s games. This is a travesty in roto. Tomorrow’s games are part of the season. If the White Sox win, the one day playoff on Tuesday between the Twins and White Sox are also a part of the season. This is just lazy on Yahoo’s part. Everyone is aware that ESPN is completely free, right? As for tomorrow, pickup anyone that could help you. If you’re unable to be caught in ERA and WHIP, grab middle relievers for the chance for a vulture win. If you’re fine in average, grab any hitter that could possibly contribute.

Ryan Ludwick - Finishes the year with .299/37/112.  Just as we predicted…for, um, Manny Ramirez.  Remember those hitting stats next time someone says “Hitters are much more predictable than pitchers.”

Freddy Garcia - Pitching Monday and likely will pitch the White Sox into the playoffs for the 2nd time in his career.  Unfortunately, he’s not on the White Sox this year.

Josh Outman - Loses for the A’s ending up 1-2 in a yawnstipating 4 start audition for the A’s this September.  His last name is fitting just not in the way he’d like.  He’s not “The Outman,” he’s just likely gonna be told “Out, man!” when he competes for the A’s rotation next spring.

Randy Johnson - After a year or two of impotence, the Big Unit is back in thrust mode.  A complete game win against the Rockies gives him a winning record for the year (11-10) and an impressive # of starts (30), IP (184) and K/BB (173/45).  With 295 career wins, he’ll likely be returning for another season.  Jamie Moyer will be doing the same as he’s only 54 wins away from 300… *rechecks player profile* Oh, wait, is that 54 years old?

Mike Mussina - Finally got to 20 wins, but he was unable to finish the Sunday New York Times crossword puzzle.  Luckily, Rivera was there to finish up the puzzle.

NL Cy Young - Webb has the 22 wins, Lincecum has the 265Ks, Santana has the best ERA and WHIP.  Our pre-season picks of Peavy and Hamels aren’t looking so good… (But don’t forget Grey told you to pickup Nady on the 4th day of the season. Nady!)

Vernon Wells - 2 HRs. Doesn’t his name sound like a city in upstate New York? *old-timey voice* When I was a kid in Vernon Wells, New York, we didn’t have fantasy baseball. We had baseball. And we had fantasy. If you combined fantasy and baseball, you were gay.

Finally, Francisco Liriano looked like the fantasy baseball player that we all wanted when we drafted him back in March. And by “we,” I mean you. How did I know you drafted Liriano? Because, when you drafted, I was in your room, sitting behind the John Cena life-sized cardboard cutout, eating your Raspberry Newtons, while I read your Choose Your Own Adventure book. You think that’s freaky? I’m still there. Only you can’t see me. Muahahahaha…ha. So Liriano put together a great first start back after dominating Triple-A, yet there’s some savvy fantasy baseball owners out there that will see this for what it is, an opportunity to sell. Buh-buh-but, Grey, Liriano could dominate? Yeah, so can Campillo, Randy Johnson, Nolasco and Myers, but none of those guys have the name/trade-value Francisco Liriano has right now. Do I think Liriano will be good? Sure. But if you need a piece other than a starter who is riskier than people are perceiving him, then go for it. Don’t forget, I’m watching. Boo! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Wagner - 2 MRIs in 2 weeks is 2 many; 2 bad; K.I.T, BFF. On a scale of worthy replacements, Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez fall right between Shemp and Curly Joe. The Mets called up Eddie Kunz, their Double-A closer. This, fellas, is anyone’s ballgame for at least a few weeks, if not the rest of the season.

John Maine - Maine hit the 15-day DL. This is a move that’s probably about a month overdue. He should be back in a couple of weeks.

Manny Ramirez - 4-for-5, HR, 3 RBIs. Imagine you’re a waiter for Applebee’s. You slack off for two years, deciding customers can get their own mozzarella sticks from the kitchen. Then Applebee’s starts saying you haven’t been doing your job, which is absolutely true, but you don’t want to hear it. You quit and take a job at the Olive Garden, knowing if you work for two months then you will get a huge bonus in the winter and be able to go anywhere — Chili’s, Cheesecake Factory, you name it. So do you bust your hump at the Olive Garden or do you continue to slack?

Stephen Drew - Yesterday, 3-for-5 with a HR, and over .350 in last 7 games. So far not a “step forward” season, but he’s worth the gamble the rest of the way to see if he can get hot.

Xavier Nady - 4-for-5, HR and 6 RBIs. Let’s go back to the 7th day of the season, shall we? “Honestly, never thought I’d ever mention (Nady) on the blog, but he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? What, am I Ms. Cleo? I don’t know for sure, but history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere. Maybe this is Nady’s year.” You know what’s funny? (Not funny funny, just mildly interesting funny.) People are still asking me if they should pick up Nady. No love for the X-Man.

Fernando Rodney/Kyle Farnsworth/Joel Zumaya - Triumvirate, noun 1. a group of three closers that are making Todd Jones feel missed. 2. Sounds like it’s a Latin combination of triumphant and irate, but it’s not.

Mike Aviles - 4-for-4, HR. Check out his ESPN player photo. Talk about respect. For those who are interested in what he looks like, here’s Mike Aviles.

Mariano Rivera - Back spasms. Supposedly he’ll be okay. Jose Veras would’ve been who they turned to. Okay, save vultures, pick apart Veras’s bones.

Jose Guillen - Homered for the 2nd straight day and 3rd this week. Worth a pickup, just drop him when he realizes he’s stuck with the Royals until the end of the season.

Alfonso Soriano - The other day someone asked me for some names that could hit 15 HRs between now and end of season. In two months, this is a very difficult assignment (to hit 15 HRs, it’s not difficult to pick guys), the list looked like this (the order is their likelihood of getting to 15 HRs): Dunn, Soriano, Holliday, Burrell, Braun, Carlos Lee, Hamilton, Cust, Krispie and Vlad.

Andy LaRoche - HR yesterday. In leagues where you need to take some risks, I’d look at LaRoche. Then try and find anyone else, then look at LaRoche again, then take a steam, get a massage (you look stressed), get a bite to eat, play nine holes, then look over your 3rd base choices again and, if your choices are still limited, grab LaRoche.

Rafael Soriano - He’s done for the year. Back date this to April.

Chone Figgins - Another 4 hit game. Oh Figgy give him one more chance.

Joel Hanrahan - Picked up his first save since Rauch was traded. As I said when the trade went down, Rauch only had 17 saves in over half of a year, Hanrahan’s not netting 20 in two months. And that’s me paraphrasing me!

Jorge Campillo - 7 IP, 6 Ks, 0 ER. He replaced Harang on most of my deeper teams. Now I don’t care if I ever see Harang again. Okay, that’s mean. I wanna see Harang again, just not on any of my teams.

Shane Victorino - 10th HR as he threatens to run away with the HR crown in the Victorino vs. Rios battle.

Ryan Ludwick - I’m convinced LaRussa could make Austin Kearns an All-Star (while batting him ninth and the pitcher fourth).

Brett Myers - Only one walk in his last two starts. Definitely worth taking a look in deeper leagues. Maybe he’s taking a similar route to Wainwright last year when it took him half a year to shake being a closer the previous year. Or maybe Myers’s trip to the minors smacked some sense into him. Though it’s usually Myers smacking the minors.