For those fantasy players who play in standard mixed leagues, the hot stove season is a time of excitement. These owners can just sit back and enjoy the player moves, secure in the knowledge that regardless of what happens there will not be a huge impact on gameplay. Sure some players will change jerseys, some jobs will be gained or lost because of moves, but by and large the player market remains the same.
Contrast that to fantasy owners in AL or NL-only leagues, who view the hot stove season with trepidation. They watch these same player moves closely, aware of the fact that superstars may become undraftable at the drop of a hat. Despite this risk, over the course of time these moves tend to balance out, with relatively equal numbers of players coming and going from each league. However, this season is different. To use a tired cliché, a “perfect storm” of destruction has afflicted the hitters of the National League. Similar to flipping a coin ten times and having it come up tails every time, seemingly every big ticket hitting item left the NL for greener pastures (and a ton of even greener cash).
No position was seemingly hit harder than the first base position in the National League. This position was traditionally held by perennial 1st round picks like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but both of those studs have packed their bags for the “other” league. Consequently, the position has understandably taken a huge hit in terms of talent. Fortunately, one superstar remains in the NL, one Joey Votto. In fact, Votto is the only player at his position drafted in the top 40. I would go so far as to say Votto is probably worth the #2 overall pick in such leagues (after Matt Kemp), because no position has a wider gap between the best and second best player than 1st base.
The fact that the second player on this list is Michael Morse should be very telling about the state of the position. However, that does not mean that your 1B position is “Votto or Bust.” Morse himself had a breakout season last year, and fellow youngsters Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman join him in the tier below Votto. I’d be perfectly happy starting any of these guys for my NL-only squads, especially at ADPs ranging from 50-70, but perceived scarcity may drive their price higher than I’m willing to pay.
As for the individual players here, who you will pick comes down to personal preference and team needs. Goldschmidt has the most raw power of the bunch, but his swing also probably has the most holes. Freeman, on the other hand, is a great contact hitter, but he may not surpass his 21 home runs from 2011 until he puts more meat on his rather lanky frame. Morse is a bit of a mystery, showing slightly above average power in a long minor league career, but when given the chance at the major league level he produced a nifty 31 long balls in 2011. He’s first on the list in ADP, but I see a higher ceiling with the other two guys. Again, just a matter of personal preference.
If high-risk high-reward veterans are more your speed than the youngsters above, then Ryan Howard and Ike Davis are your answer. Both face uncertain 2012 statuses due to ankle injuries (though Howard’s outlook is considerably bleaker than Davis’s), and both are coming at a substantial discount from their full health prices. Recall that Howard has been a power stalwart at his position for nearly a decade, and that Ike Davis had a nice 2010 and was off to a great start in 2011 before the Mets training staff struck him down with a bum ankle. You would do well to have insurance making one of these picks, but it could well win you a league if the cards break just right.
If you miss out on the above candidates, uninspiring veterans seem to be the rule. Guys like Adam LaRoche, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, James Loney, Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff and Gaby Sanchez. Some of these guys may well outproduce players I have listed above, but it is a matter of ceiling and floor that lands them here. Berkman had a great 2011, but at his age fall off the cliff risk is a real possibility, lowering the floor for me. Even Gaby Sanchez, the guy from this group that I would probably like the most, has a pretty low ceiling, albeit with a higher floor.
This list has brought us past the top 12 1st baseman, so you’ve probably already seen the first baseman you will end up starting. Admit it, it’s not as bleak as you thought it would be, is it? That is not, however, to say that you will be happy with who you end up with. So what are you going to do if you find yourself staring down the barrel of James Loney? The answer lies on the final names on our list- guys like Mat Gamel, Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo. Gamel, seemingly out of chances in 2011, has been given one more chance to prove that he is not a bust as a top prospect. Rizzo and Belt flopped in their major league debuts, but I am not ready to take the bloom off the rose of these prospects. Belt’s 20-20 potential at 1B is very real and very rare indeed, while Rizzo’s power definitely plays now that he has left Petco for Wrigley. I would not necessarily start one of these guys, but I like them as late round picks in redraft leagues that have upside to pan out. Finally, a more creative manager may try to handcuff one of the injury prone guys above and hope for a setback.
I am not going to sugar coat it, losing Fielder and Pujols has left a huge gap in talent and turned it into a scarce position. Take consolation in the fact that every team is in the same boat in this deflated market. If you are lucky enough to land Votto, then smile and know that you are ahead of the game. If not, then 1st base may indeed prove an adventure. However, there’s nothing more satisfying than coming out on top of a challenging position- it’s part of why we play the game. Let’s just hope we all fare better than George Clooney in navigating this perfect storm.
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
For Philly fans (myself included), it was hard to imagine a worse way for the 2011 season to end. As prohibitive favorites to win the World Series, the Phillies watched a 2-1 series lead evaporate with it all culminating in a Ryan Howard groundout to end the series that saw him pull up lame and fall to the ground in a heap. The injury turned out to be a worst case scenario — a ruptured achilles tendon in the ankle. With recovery estimates varied from 6 months to over a year and no gaurantee of a full recovery, it is impossible at this point (and not the purpose of this piece) to assess Howard’s situation except to say it is very possible that he isn’t ready for opening day. Or in 2012 at all.
The natural question following an injury like this is, “Who is next in line?” For the Phillies, it may seem in line with their recent spending to go out and sign a free agent to fill the gap. While this is certainly possible, the Phillies this offseason may find themselves strapped for cash. Although sizeable contracts like Blanton, Lidge and Raul Ibanez are coming off the books, the Phillies have several MAJOR pay raises in the works and possibly need to re-sign players like Ryan Madson and Jimmy Rollins. Therefore in the rest of the Phillies’ moves including their search for a first baseman, frugality may be the name of the game. In line with this theme, with a little guts and creativity the Phillies may discover that their replacement 1st baseman is already on their roster in the person of John Mayberry Jr.
After years of bouncing around the minors in multiple organizations, Mayberry was finally given an extended look in the majors in 2011. The former Ranger did not disappoint, as he slugged 15 HRs in limited at bats (296). He played anywhere the Phillies could find room for him, whether it was due to injury, ineffectiveness, or just Charlie Manuel’s desire to let the best man play. Looking under the hood it seems as though Mayberry changed his approach at the plate going into 2011. His walk rate increased and his strikeout rate was nearly cut in half from his minor league norms. Additionally, he posted an absurd .240 ISO (compare that to Ryan Howard’s .235). While it is unlikely that he could keep up that type of power over an entire season (especially if a good chunk of at bats came against righties), they are likewise impossible to ignore.
All of Mayberry’s 2011 accomplishments did not go unnoticed in the organization, as the Phillies have indicated that he will play next season. Manager Charlie Manuel has been open in his praise for Mayberry, saying that he envisions Mayberry as an everyday player. Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently echoed these sentiments as he went on record saying that Mayberry would be given every chance to compete with top prospect Domonic Brown for the starting left fielder job vacated by Raul Ibanez. The most likely scenario arising from such a competition would likely be some sort of platoon situation, with Mayberry as the right-handed component. However, should everyday at bats become available at first base, it is reasonable to expect Mayberry to be the primary beneficiary. While Mayberry’s platoon splits certainly favor left-handed pitching (.953 OPS in 2011), he was by no means inept against righties (.785 OPS in 2011) indicating that he could probably succeed while playing everyday if needed.
Mayberry isn’t exactly a stranger to first base. After the Hunter Pence trade, playing time in the outfield shrunk dramatically. In an attempt to keep Mayberry’s bat in the lineup, Charlie Manuel started plugging him into the lineup at first base, spelling a tired and dinged up Ryan Howard. The results were mixed: Mayberry’s hot bat continued to make an impact, but he struggled defensely posting a -11.4 UZR/150 at first base. While this may not be enough to prohibit him from playing the position (Ryan Howard’s worst defensive season had a -11.8 UZR/150), it is a number that would have to improve for him to be an upgrade over a free agent signing. Fortunately, this number may improve for several reasons. For one thing, this year’s stats were based on a relatively small sample size. Additionally, Mayberry is a better natural athlete than Ryan Howard, which combined with a full offseason to learn the position (he was thrust into the role this season), may result in a defensive improvement.
In short, it will be impossible for the Phillies to replace Ryan Howard in their lineup which was already struggling to score runs before the injury. Moreover, the ludicrous contract that he was handed looms large in the Phillies’ future plans. However, Mayberry’s offensive presence at first base may represent a low-cost alternative while the team addresses other issues if he can improve on defense. The Phillies will still be in contention in 2012 with their pitching, and Charlie Manuel, Ruben Amaro and the Phillies would be well-served by turning the kid loose at first and seeing what sticks.
After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season. Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me. We are totally fine. Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you. If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense? You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise. I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging. Either way, it made no difference. Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down. But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers: 111/30/105/.344/2
2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10. People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters. People said you can get 1st basemen later. Grab Youkilis, people said. Or Aubrey Huff. Or Morneau. Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau. Oh, well. They ain’t all gems. Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs. Okay, one more Morneau comment. In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have? Exactly!” And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers: 108/27/117/.338/1
3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300. On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols. It would give The Manhole a run for its money. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers: 105/37/99/.299/9
4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft. How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks? None. There were shortstops that flopped. Outfielders that flopped. No 1st basemen. Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers: 101/29/103/.309/8
5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year. Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1
6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason. “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.” That’s you. Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.” Only I didn’t say stuff. I said shizz. Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers: 88/11/106/.338/6
7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it. Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it. Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year. I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers: 90/31/94/.301/2
8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now. That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers: 69/31/105/.300/1
9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed. BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus. And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now. Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 73/31/95/.303/2
10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern. The rule of three yadda3. As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers: 90/39/111/.248/4
12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value. Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye. They overrate average and steals. As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers: 81/33/116/.253/1
13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season. Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto. No, I don’t use those words lightly. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 66/19/78/.293/11
14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player. I’ll explain. If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value. It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average. See Michael Young as another example. Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections: 65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers: 86/18/63/.285/14
15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers: 74/19/95/.291/2
16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility. Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far. I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists. What a shizzshow in Minny. At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven. Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins. Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections: 85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers: 70/20/70/.284/11
17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average. I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/29/87/.254/9
18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler. Feel free to share if you figure it out. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 67/21/76/.282/4
19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint. Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers: 66/18/94/.275/4
20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking. I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall. Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would. Terrible average, good power and some light speed. So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career. It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra. Or something. Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers: 84/37/86/.221/6
Joe Mauer is done for the year with pneumonia. I’m almost 100% sure Morneau was the carrier of the virus. On Friday, frequent commenter Mike said, “If you went to Joe Mauer’s house, went into his basement, jack-hammered through the concrete, and started digging, what would be the under/over on number of feet you’d have to go down before you found the first dessicated Native American corpse? 3 feet? 4 feet? I mean, that Native American graveyard can’t be that far below the surface.” I honestly never thought I’d say this this (stutterer!) early in his career, but I think Mauer’s going to be a bargain next year. Assuming he falls into the 10th round or later, he’s worth the gamble at catcher for 2012, right? I mean, even if he only gets 100 games and hits .300, it’s worth the ulcer, isn’t it? I think so. With that said (yeah, here comes opposite talk), I’m sure glad I haven’t drafted him the last two years in any league. He hit 3 homers this year. As in between 2 and 4. Jesus Montero has that many in 10 games. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Jason Kubel – Probably done for the year. In related news, Morneau, Mauer and Kubel have a fishing trip planned for the first weekend of October and all Twins fans have a hunting trip planned for the same weekend.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Done for the year. Back date that to March. Are the Twins fielding a team this final week and a half?
Brian Dinkelman – 4-for-5 yesterday and 7 for his last 9. When your team’s good news is Brian Dinkelman, you got a big fish that needs some frying or whatever that cliche is.
Ryan Howard – Out until Thursday, which will probably mean he plays only sporadically even after that. Ross Gload will fill in. Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!
Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks as he won his 24th game yesterday. That’s pretttay pretttay good. Tough year to be Jered Weaver.
Joakim Soria – Didn’t pitch this weekend. Now all the Royals’ 9th inning eggs are hoping for some good Holland days.
Pablo Sandoval – Hit two homers in one inning. When you throw Sandoval two meatballs, he jumps on them.
David Price – Left after 4 innings after being hit in the chest by a liner. Should be fine for his next start, which he will throw while wearing knight’s armor.
Desmond Jennings – 2-for-5 with a steal. In roughly a third of the season, he has 9 homers and 18 steals. Yeah, go ahead and times those by three.
Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks. There should a glossary term for these K-heavy pitchers that are a total tease. You suggest in the comments, thank you.
Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with two homers. Be nice if he went on one of his crazy 6 homers in 8 games binges. Cust kayin’.
Joe Saunders – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks. He came through big time for my borderline starter post from Thursday. (And Matt Harrison too. Brad Lincoln, not so much.)
Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with a homer. With 8 homers and 45 Ks in 40 games this year, he’s either gonna be something special next year or a flat-out bomb.
Mark Reynolds – Homered on Friday and Saturday, then was beaned in the head by a Ervin Santana pitch. His CT scan came back negative, then the CT scan picked up Johnny Bananas and carried him to the other side of The Gulag.
James Loney – 5-for-6 yesterday and two homers in two games on Friday and Saturday. I don’t like saying to pick up Loney, so if I wink, it means pick him up. Wink.
Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks. I have two things to note, neither of which is that interesting. First, I can’t believe Greinke is barely under a 4.00 ERA in the NL. Second, I can never remember if it’s a H or a K with Zack. From writing 1200+ words five days a week about these players, I can spell Saltalamacchia without looking it up. I could be in a baseball spelling bee and kick serious ass and get tripped up by spelling Zack. I feel like there should be a standard Zack spelling. H or K, that’s it.
Erick Aybar – 4-for-4, 2 homers, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and now hitting .434 in September. Looks like a classic Septacular performance.
Adrian Gonzalez – It was revealed this weekend that he’s only taking batting practice every other day due to weakness in his shoulder. He said, “(The weakness is) fine. It’s the end of the year.” Um, maybe in San Diego.
Mike Aviles – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in three games. Sawx kinda have to win games and Aviles, McDonald, Salty, Scutaro and Conor Jackson (when I saw his name as C. Jackson in the box score, I thought it was Curtis Jackson) are playing and Wakefield is pitching. Up the team salary to $300 million.
Brandon Beachy – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER and 8 earned in his last 9 2/3 IP, 8 ER. The good news for people who like bad news is he’s tired. The other bad news is he might struggle next year if the Braves don’t shut him down.
Jason Heyward – 3-for-4 as he hit 8th in front of the pitcher. He should consider apologizing to Fredi for whatever transgression he did to him or his family. Meanwhile, pray he doesn’t hit three homers in one game in the playoffs and get on everyone’s radar again.
Manny Acosta – Closed out yesterday’s game while Parnell worked the 8th. Honestly, I think the Mets are going to get a closer in the offseason and don’t really care who gets the ball in the ninth right now. It’s not like they’re grooming anyone.
Chien-Ming Wang – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Marlins’ Brad Hand. For a change of pace, this game saw Wang beating Hand.
A.J. Pierzynski – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers. He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.
Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 yesterday and a homer on Saturday. He should be playing every day, but he’s not. I feel like someone should write a song titled, “The 28-Year-Old Rookie.” Belle and Sebastian, where you at?
Jordan Pacheco – Batted third yesterday and went 0-for-4, but is hitting .320 over the last week with a homer. He did so little in Triple-A this year, it’s kinda comical (3 homers, 2 steals, .278). Guess if you’re really hogtied in a very deep league, you can take a look.
Allen Craig – 3-for-4, 2 homers. Before this game, he hadn’t done much since he started, uh, starting. But maybe this is the beginning of something. Only Miss Cleo knows for sure.
Matt Holliday – Inferred here first after reading shizz elsewhere, it sounds like Holliday’s done for the year.
Mariano Rivera – Tied Trevor Hoffman’s save record. Right after he breaks the record, the Yankees announced Bobby Parnell would take over as closer.
