Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew - I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay - I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado - Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez - Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora - Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez - Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier - Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit - You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta - See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu - I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady - Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa - You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis - I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin - Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff - Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth - You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton - To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia - Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick - Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

On the Greek isle of Fantasia Baseballikis they have a proverb, “Never give up on a fantasy baseball player until he reaches full maturity and never spit in a woman’s face unless her mustache is on fire.” Let’s tackle the first half first, shall we? In 2008, Marakakis went 106/20/87/.306/10. These numbers won’t necessarily blow you away, until you realize in 2009 Markakis will only be 25 years old. Yes, he’s still ascending the escalator of Fantasy Baseball Worth. Hopefully he won’t get off until he reaches 2nd round value. His splits are promising. Against lefties, he hit .297, .310 vs. righties, .282/.330 Home/Away splits, almost even on Day/Night splits and .301 Pre-All-Star break and .313 Post. His 2nd half steals are a concern, as he stole only one base as opposed to nine steals in the first half. Maybe he only steals five next year, or maybe he steals 15. (Any player whose game is not steals can’t be relied on to ever steal more than 15.) The aspect of Markakis’s game that really needs to step up is his power. As of right now, I’d hope for 30 home runs, but wouldn’t expect more than 25 in 2009. So why am I suggesting you keep Markakis for 2009? His power is still developing and his walks are up. Throw in a five tools skill set and you have the makings of a great one. I am Sparkakis! As for the 2nd half of that aforementioned Greek proverb, it’s a good rule of thumb, but make sure you’re not spitting Ouza. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

KEEP

Alexei Ramirez - He’s a premenopausal Alfonso Soriano.

Hunter Pence - The dealer’s showing 25 HRs, 10 steals and a .275 average. That’s a push.

DON’T KEEP

Ryan Doumit - Doumit ranked #4 on the top 20 catcher list for 2008. You know what? He could come in number one next year, I still don’t think you should keep him. He’s not going to be overvalued at the drafts so you can get him back if you want and he’s injury-prone. Reggie Roby his ass.

David DeJesus - If he stays healthy, he could be Yunel Escobar. I’ll take one small bleh with a side order of bleh-bleh.

The baseball regular season ends today and as Senator Clay Davis would say, “Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!” I already feel myself falling into a deep, dark depression where the only cure is recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand fed Doritos. First up, Cool Ranch and our Preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2008. Of course with catchers (or any position really), you didn’t need to be tied to these guys just because you drafted them, but I think it’s important to look back to ‘08 before we look ahead to 2009. How do you know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been? Thank you, B-Real. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2008 and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Joe Mauer - Flipping through the book, “Paint Drying: A Photo Collection,” is less yawnstipating than Mauer’s year. I’d argue you’re better off drafting Brad Ausmus, punting him before the season begins, then going with the hot hand from week to week, or at least that’s what I did. We’ll cover more about catcher strategy in the offseason. For right now, let’s say I expected less of Mauer number-wise and he didn’t disappoint, but he actually ranked higher because of how poor the catching position is. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  85/15/70/.310/10, Final Numbers:  97/9/83/.330/1

2. Brian McCann - Here’s the one top catcher I actually have on a team and this was the team that struggled the most offensively. Buh-but, Grey… Wha happened? Because I paid for a high-priced catcher, I had to skimp on positions that could actually make a difference. Well, ain’t that something? No, not really. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions: 75/25/105/.285, Final Numbers:  68/23/87/.301/5

3. Russell Martin - If Vin Scully had said, “Martin reminds me of Benito Santiago and we know what happened to him,” then Scully would’ve been half right. No one has any idea what happened to Santiago. (Renting out scuba gear to tourists on the beach in Barbados is my guess.) All right, pop quiz, random Razzball reader, would you prefer Theriot at 2nd and Shoppach at catcher? Or Martin and Robinson Cano? Catchers that make you go Hmm… Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  87/13/69/.279/18

4. Ryan Doumit - First out of nowhere, “How’s Your Father?” As mentioned in Mauer’s entry, you could’ve drafted some other schmohawk then grabbed Doumit sometime in April, just as I did in a few leagues. BTW, Rudy and I were talking about how important it is to grab hot-starters in April and he’s thinking about writing a feature on it. We shall see… What, how come I’m not talking more about Doumit? Because he’s a catcher and a Pirate, I’m not trying to purposely drive people away from reading the blog.  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  71/15/69/.319/2

5. Geovany Soto - I’d love to see the Cubs win the World Series on the strength of Soto’s three home run clinching game. Not because I particularly like the Cubs or Soto, but I want him to be ridiculously overrated going into 2009. Muahahahaha… (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies. Unranked in Preseason, Preseason Predictions:  17/65/.270, Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

6. Bengie Molina - I’d go as far to say he’s actually less valuable than Shoppach at #8, but the most productive of The Flying Molina Bros. is more valuable than every other catcher below Shoppach so that should tell you all you need to know about the catching position. Pee-ewe-en-tee. Punt! Punt! Punt! Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  45/20/80/.270 Final Numbers: 46/16/95/.292

7. A.J. Pierzynski - Shoppach is the number one reason why you don’t draft catchers. (Actually, Doumit is the number one reason and Shoppach’s number two, but don’t nitpick. People don’t like that.) Let’s say you drafted Victor Martinez and he was crap. Well, you’re stuck holding Victor Martinez for longer than you want because you drafted him early, while your opponent drafted Ausmus, punted that schmohawk and grabbed Shoppach. Wait, why am I talking about Shoppach? Let’s put it this way, do you have something to say about Pierzynski? Yeah, me neither. Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  60/15/50/.260, Final Numbers:  66/13/60/.282/1

8. Kelly Shoppach - His numbers are far less exciting than the fantasy baseball media made them out ot be. (Ha! Sorry, I couldn’t write that without laughing at it. The “Fantasy baseball media” is to real reporters as To Catch a Predator is to law enforcement.) Still, for what you paid for Shoppach, you take your medicine and you like it! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  67/21/55/.261

9. Chris Iannetta - Well, I put Yorvit Torrealba down as 55/12/55/.265/3 so I wasn’t that far off, except for the name. Here’s a guy that I told you to pickup in the first week of May so you were, ya know, warned. Recognize!  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  50/18/65/.267

10. Mike Napoli - Here’s a good example of why it doesn’t matter if a guy starts every day. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  45/13/50/.260/7 Final Numbers:  39/20/49/.273/7

11. Yadir Molina - Here’s a guy that wasn’t even owned in some leagues at the end of the year. I don’t necessarily disagree with that.  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  37/7/56/.305

12. Dioner Navarro - Tale of two seasons with this schmohawk. I was touting him in April and May until I was blue in the face. He got selected to the All-Star game and left his game there, so then I started deriding him. At the end of the year, his numbers make yawnstipating numbers yawn. He’s just boring. (But he’s still young and I may not be done with Dioner just yet.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 43/7/54/.295

13. Ivan Rodriguez - And you thought the first twelve names were boring. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  55/10/65/.285/5, Final Numbers:  44/7/35/.276/10

14. Ramon Hernandez - Kinda like his end of the year numbers more than Dioner’s. ¿Porque, Grey? Well, a .292 average from a catcher doesn’t do much, but 15 home runs and 65 RBIs is preferable to Dioner’s girly numbers.  Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  60/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  49/15/65/.258

15. Kurt Suzuki - Kurt Suzuki? Fantasy baseball junkies, your 2008 catchers!  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 54/7/42/.280/2

16. Gerald Laird - Considering where he played his home games and Teagarden had 300 less at-bats and exactly the same number of home runs, Laird’s only listed here because he had more Runs and RBIs than some below. You would’ve been much better off streaming catchers that are not listed here instead of owning Laird. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  54/6/41/.278/2

17. Chris Snyder - The last full-time catcher that had any sort of value. For those in 18 team deep leagues, here’s hoping you drew a seventeen or higher in the draft. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  47/16/64/.237

18. Miguel Olivo - There were moments when Olivo was actually valuable to have, unlike Laird. Yes, I’m still looking at Laird! I thought Olivo would miss Miguel Cabrera’s hugs down in Florida, but obviously he didn’t. No matter the climate, Olivo remained marginally usable. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 29/12/41/.255/7

19. Jesus Flores - Paul LoDuca was supposed to start for the Nots, but Flores took the job and never relinquished it. This is not endorsement of Flores as much as an indictment of LoDuca. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 23/8/59/.256

20. Rod Barajas - What better way to end the catchers’ recap than by mentioning the first catcher on the list that wasn’t mentioned once by me on this blog. He was mentioned during a Comment O’ The Week, from commenter Knighttown explaining how he managed 0 HRs all year from his catcher spot.

“-I wasted a second round pick on V-Mart.
-Now he’s taking up a DL spot for me which leaves me with 3 for 2 (Putz just sitting idle)
-Picked up Rod Barajas
-Sobered up and dropped Rod Barajas
-Picked up the “red-hot” Miguel Olivo
-He retired or something and got 10 AB’s in the 2 weeks I had him
-Picked up Jarred Salta-something-or-other
-Started him yesterday, went o-fer.
-Dropped him and picked up Ramon Hernandez…honestly, only because he was mentioned in today’s blog.”

Barajas’s Preseason Rank: Ha!, Preseason Predictions: Look Elsewhere, Final Numbers: Crap/Crap/Yuck/Serious Crap

Josh Hamilton left yesterday’s game with a sore knee. Well, you knew the injury was coming at some point. The good news is he didn’t leave immediately so it couldn’t have been too bad, right? Um, yeah, hopefully. The bad news, he’s a recovering drug addict and as we all learned from Dylan McKay’s battle with drugs on 90210, addicts can’t take pain killers. This banged up knee should serve as a reminder to all of Hamilton’s fantasy baseball owners. He’s not only injury-prone, he doesn’t bounce back that quickly. Maybe it was the years of huffing? Maybe he sold his soul for a bag of rocks? Who knows. But at some point you might lose Hamilton to a more serious injury, don’t rely on him for everything. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dave Bush - 7 IP, 1 ER. All he does is pitch quality starts!… Actually that’s a complete lie. He had about two years in there where he was unusable. I’m still not going anywhere near him.

A.J. Burnett - Pitched well, but I imagine a quick ten runs of support is psychologically similar to when I drink Tequila. “My bad, officer, I had no idea roof surfing like Teen Wolf was illegal.”

Jay Bruce - Batting seventh last night. Gotta love rookies, right? Well, I told you to sell high on May 31st and, if that didn’t convince you, Karabell told you Bruce would be this year’s Braun.

Alexis Rios - Hit a home run against Arroyo. (Then again Arroyo gave up ten runs in one inning to the Blue Jays. An extremely hard thing to do.)

Reed Johnson - Hit the 15-day DL retroactive to June 18th. This gives Little Patterson a bit of breathing room. Gotta look at Eric Patterson in deep leagues, if you can get past his striking (out) resemblance to Corey).

Ramon Hernandez - Has hit in 6 in the row, 9 out of 10. If you can remember back to March, Ramon (that’s Nomar backwards!) was on a lot of ‘perts’ lists as a sleeper. Well, he’s now getting hot. I don’t think Hernandez is done; I also wouldn’t drop Doumit or better for him.

Mark Buehrle - 1 ER in 8 IP. I spot started Buehrle on one team that lost Wainwright. Worked out okay. I may not start him again, but I felt better about it than last week’s Oliver Perez spot start. Speaking of…

Oliver Perez - He gave up 6 ER to the Giants in a third of an inning on 6/2. Then he pitched well against the Padres and the Rangers. Then he was lit up by the Angels and Mariners. He gets the Yankees next. You can probably find a better spot start.

Shawn Hill - 6 ER in 3 IP. *sitting down* Ouch, that hurts! *trying to sit down again* Ouch, still hurts!

Jonathan Sanchez - Dirty Sanchez doesn’t do him justice. His stuff his so nasty from now on he will be known as Filthy Sanchez.

Ryan Doumit - He returns and hits a home run. Tell me who’s better, Doumit or Soto? Tell me!

Mike Napoli - Crapoli was in a horrific slump before last night’s game. Maybe this breaks him out. Watch him as if your life depends on it. Or at least your crazy aunt’s life. She loves you and her cats!

Kevin Slowey - 7 Ks, 0 ER in 6 IP. I do have a soft spot for Slowey, but for a guy that gives up a lot of home runs, this was a peach matchup. So, for those in Latin America, caveat emptor.

Jeremy Guthrie - I’m glad I didn’t have to send off my strongly worded letter to the Orioles offense about the importance of run support.

Trevor Hoffman - He was Kazaam’d.

Zach Greinke - As many of you already know, I traded Melky Cabrera to my blogmate Rudy Gamble for Zach Greinke. Soon after the trade, Rudy dropped Melky to waivers because of poor production. Last night Greinke K’d 10 on his way to a quality start/win. This is turning into a trade similar to Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz or Jim Fregosi for Nolan Ryan or Valerie Harper for Sandy Duncan. Hey, Rudy, turn on some sad songs and grab a pint of ice cream, cause you’ve been Greinke’d!

I don’t el-oh-el. It’s kinda girly. I don’t emoticon. It’s seriously not how a man with a ’stache rolls. A man with a ’stache rocks tight white shorts with his balls hanging out and does not care. That’s how a man with a ’stache rolls. A man with a ’stache doesn’t listen to Jack Johnson. A man with a ’stache drafts Ryan Zimmerman and then drops him just after the draft — Just. To. Prove. A. Point. That’s what a man with a ’stache does. A man with a ’stache cries when his vinyl collection falls out of his El Dorado on the way to his DJ gig. A man with a ’stache also cries when he loses Pujols to the DL. I am so effin’ effed in the effin’ Poo-hole. I’m praying he returns in three weeks like the Cards are saying. I’m hoping he doesn’t make a two column list with Pros and Cons on why he should just have elbow surgery while this other setback mends, because I know if I were making that two column Pro/Con list, I’d probably opt for surgery. I really think he might be gone for the year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball yesterday:

Alfonso Soriano - Will be out for at least six weeks with a broken bone on his left hand.  The only bright side to Soriano’s propensity for injury is his ability to bounce back from injury. Though he’s still going to be out. With Alfonso off the menu, the choices are now limited to Pie and Stale Cake (Jim Edmonds).

Victor Martinez - Will undergo MRI on his inflamed elbow. I think if you’re going to concoct an injury because you haven’t hit a home run in two months, you’d take the lie a little further than an inflamed elbow. Can’t he cook up a conspiracy that Jim Leyland passed around small pox infested blankets to all the Indians?  That would explain Pronk’s year as well….

Ryan Doumit - Third home run in two days. Is it me or does he remind you of Craig Wilson? (Not Craig T. Nelson aka Coach.)

John Lackey - Into the 8th giving up only 2 runs. I choose him as my AL Cy Young, then I jumped ship when he missed time with arm issues. Now I’m regaining faith in this Angel (sorry, that was dreadful).

Dan Uggla - Walk off grand slam. Wow, I wonder where he’d go, if I were drafting today… *wink wink Razzball Commenters’ League*

Andy LaRoche - My James Loney has a first name — it’s P-L-A-T-O-O-N. LaRoche’s here and he hit a home run. The Dodgers are only starting him against lefties for now. Add him to the marginal 3B pile.

Jason Kendall - Hit first home run of the year. Somewhere a tidal wave hit.

Ian Snell - Now this is the Ian Snell we all know and love! Oh, against the Nats. Well, made for a nice spot start for someone.

Luke Scott/Mark Reynolds - Mentioned them the other day as guys who are streaky and getting hot. Yup, more home runs.

Mike Pelfrey - We are haunted by Berman voices in our head saying - where was the Diamondbacks hitting - well the bats were in the Pelfrey!  Whoop!

Jorge Cantu - Hit two home runs. Yesterday in the Razzball Forums, I said this, “He (Cantu) gets to thirty. He’s overdrafted next year. He’s a disappointment in ‘09. Guaranteed.” I’ll tell you what, I can be quite authoritative when I want to be.

Kosuke Fukudome - The league’s definitely caught up with him, but he just hit another homer. 3 dingers in last two weeks. I put that into Japanese Google Translator then took that translation and put it into English Translator and out came this, “Wrigley blowing out. Jim Belushi could hit home run.”