Fantasy Baseball Advice

In fantasy baseball, it’s imperative to trade away overrated players before they lose their luster and trade for underrated players. Then there’s simply the rated ones. If this reads vaguely familiar, it’s because I’m cribbing Chuck Klosterman, who I think is brilliant. Here’s the relevant quote to better understand what follows:

If you are the kind of person who talks about music too much, there are two words that undoubtedly play an integral role in your workaday lexicon: “overrated” and “underrated.” This is because those two sentiments pop up in 90 percent of all musical discussions.

He goes on to list bands that are overrated (Wilco, Sonic Youth) or underrated (Duran Duran, Tortoise), coming finally to bands that simply rated, which are no more or less than their reviews (The Beatles). Klosterman’s theory also applies for fantasy baseball. Let’s look at some overrated, underrated and rated players.

OVERRATED

Ryan Braun - As I said earlier today, “I had Braun 22 overall. It’s not like I had him between Hank Blalock and David Ross. I think his average is below .285 and he’s below 15 steals. He’s basically Carlos Lee with 3B eligibility and without the track record. Carlos Lee does Braun’s thing for 7 years and Braun does it for four months and Braun should go ten spots before him? I just don’t get it.” When you put a player twenty-two overall and people say you are unfairly down on him, that player is the definition of overrated. (BTW, I have a picture of Jesus in my office and it’s signed, “Grey, Thanks for steering me away from Ryan Braun. You are a Fantasy God. Love, Your Savior. P.S. What do you think about Lackey for Alex Gordon? I’m good on starters, but have Cust as my Utility.”)

Ryan Zimmerman - Before the Anti-Defamation League of Ryans contacts me, I swear I have no prejudice towards the name Ryan. I even just picked up Ryan Franklin in a league and I’ve eaten at Ryan Gosling’s Moroccan Restaurant — the couscous was overcooked, but the bastilla was good. Then again, who’s ever had a bad bastilla? Someone who puts catsup on egg noodles and calls it pasta, that’s who.

Dustin McGowan - He threw too many innings last year. If you like math — Pitcher who has a good season + overworked = overrated. (More math problems, MTV reality shows = mindless wonderfulness. Republicans = Democrats. Hispanics + peanut butter and jelly sandwiches = Unhappy Hispanics.)

Any AL Starter - Hater Bell covered this in this post. I don’t like trading apples for apples (starter for starter, third basemen for third basemen, etc.), but I can almost get behind a trade like Lackey and Cliff Lee for Wainwright and Maine. In fact, I likey. Hey, I just made a hypothetical trade with myself.

Any Closer - Think of them as a necessary evil and you’ll be better off. I love to do trades like Mariano Rivera for Josh Hamilton then turn around and trade Josh Hamilton for Trevor Hoffman and Matt Capps then turn around and trade Capps for Victorino. Closers are like girls. You will overvalue them at first, grow to despise them, wish you traded them for their sister, not understand how they can get over you so fast when you drunkenly call them at three in the morning. Finally, you find a replacement then get a sex tape in the mail of your ex with your best friend time dated to the afternoon of your one year anniversary. Or maybe that’s me. Anyway, don’t get too attached.

UNDERRATED

Any Setup Man - Rudy claims he taught me how to use middle men many years ago. I don’t remember it, but maybe. Or maybe that’s his consolation for losing to me last year. And three years ago. And four years ago.

Any Big-Bellied 1st Basemen that is Currently Struggling - These guys could go 100/40/100 in their sleep. Howard’s average might leave something to be desired, but he’s a .265 hitter. What, you wanted a fat Ichiro?

Any Padres Pitcher - I could have a 4.50 ERA in Petco and I throw like a girl.

Aaron Cook - He’s a ground ball pitcher. It’s hard to hit ground balls out of the yard.

Any NL Starter - See 5 3/4 inches above.

Me - I think I’m good for about seven to eight posts a week. Maybe 500 to 700 words per post. Everyone has off days, but I think at the end of the season, you’ll be better off with me than without. And I can beat you in checkers. (Union County Checker Champion grades 5 thru 7. That horn is twenty years old and I’m still tooting it.)

Shawn Hill - As someone who has tried to beat the drum about about this guy, I can tell his fan club is not well-attended. In one of my leagues, I tried to trade Hill for Stephen Drew when Tulo went down. That trade got shot down quicker than David Eckstein trying to get on a roller coaster.

Melky Cabrera - Considering the Yankees hype machine it’s weird to find any Yankee on this list, but somehow people ain’t feeling Melky. Even after being crowned the best name in baseball according to Larry King.

RATED

Eric Gagne - Backne isn’t on the juice anymore and it’s hurting him. Karma is your mother-in-law.

Nick Punto - Might even be unrated.

Carlos Lee - Everyone knows what you’re going to get.

Mike Cameron - 20/20/.250 for like forty years in a row. He was the only person who got caught sipping the cheating juice and no one lowered one single prediction.

Milton Bradley - Predictable, injury-prone loose cannon. I wonder if Cliff Floyd and him are buds. That’s one carpool I would not want to be party to. (”Milton, can you grab my Mary J. Blige CD from the backseat?” “Sure, Cliff, is it next to your diaphragm?” Car screeches to the side of the road, they jump out to fight only to simultaneously pull a hammy.)

It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister - I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford - Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun - Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill - Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene - Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla - Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton - I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier - Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana - Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla - If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn - Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.

Today, Verlander is buying the next round of Camels for Leyland and his fantasy baseball owners. If it wasn’t for a great catch by Joyce and Big Papi swinging on 3-0, Youk’s home run would’ve been of the grand slam variety. As I told a frequent commenter who lurks off the homepage, “Everything on (Verlander’s) charts is wrong. His walks up, fly balls up (metaphorically and literally), BABIP (showing he’s not just getting unlucky), etc. I’m worried, frankly. I would not trade for him, but I also don’t think you can trade him away. His value is too low.” What a pickle! So what do you do with Verlander? Well, you have to start sending out feelers to see what he can garner in a trade. If offers come back for Renteria and Sherrill, you pass and hope Verlander steps his game up. If you get offered Votto, you have to seriously consider it. Otherwise, you and Leyland may be talking with a tracheotomy soon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brett Myers - I’m officially worried about Myers. Maybe moving him to the bullpen last year wasn’t such a great idea (not that anyone besides Charlie Manual’s closest family actually thought it ever was a good idea). I wouldn’t drop him, but you can’t start him at this point.

Jo-Jo Reyes - I saw nothing that would tell me to drop him. Then again, I didn’t see much because he was pulled with a blister. No word if he misses his next start.

Carlos Villanueva - Two runs in the first should’ve been unearned. Bill Hall pulled a Ryan Braun and let a Hanley grounder get past him. Bad official scorer, bad. Then in the third inning, Braun pulled a Braun and slid for a blop single and turned into a double. Then Treanor hits the foul pole with a three run homer. I know, all of this is little consolation, but Villanueva wasn’t as bad as the line. On a separate but related note, I’m actually really annoyed with the Brewers in general. Okay, whether you asked or not…

Joe Dillon - Is Ned Yost stupid? Seriously, just because he sits Fielder he has to bat Dillon in Prince’s spot in the lineup? This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen some dumb things, remember I watch reality TV).  I mean, Dillon’s not an awful player, but Yost bats him third? Why not put names into a hat? This would be reason enough for me to fire a manager. I don’t even like Braun and I think it’s absolutely whatupid (whack/stupid). People in Milwaukee, put down your frozen custard and rise up! Dillon could go 4-for-3 (if that were possible) with six home runs and 30 RBIs in this game alone and it would be whatupid. /rant

Ryan Braun - .257 after an 0-for-5. Didn’t like him coming into the year, still don’t like him. And I like the Brewers. I like their announcers. I like Milwaukee. Great city. Good people. Okay, I’m ranting again, but this is really frustrating me. If I were the type to do emoticons, and if I knew the emoticon for frustrated, I would do it. Argh.

Edwin Jackson - I like Jackson to a certain extent. He was a big name prospect that floundered in the Dodgers organization for a while. He’s been pretty uneven this year, so unless your leagues deep I’d be careful.

Doug Davis - He’s been cleared to begin rehab. Good for Doug. Stay away in fantasy baseball.

Ryan Ludwick - Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin hit two home runs yesterday. Whatever, I guess you don’t need that on your team. Now I must kill… the Queen.

Dioner Navarro - Okay, so I’m the only one talking about him. That’s reason to not pick him up? Seriously, what are you people doing? Are you looking at the fact he’s only owned on 2% of all teams and saying, “Grey’s effin’ bonkers. Nobody wants this guy. I’m grabbing Pudge.”  Is it because you don’t know how to pronounce his first name? Dioner (for lack of any nickname) hit a grand slam yesterday.

Shane Victorino - Last five games, batting .363, 8 runs, 2 steals. Werth, one start and that was against a lefty, which makes sense.

Nick Markakis - I’m going to touch on this in the next week or so, but in ESPN’s ‘new’ rankings they’ve moved both Markakis and Rios up to 21 and 23 respectively. Maybe they’ve crawled out of their caves over there in Bristol, Conn.

Miguel Tejada - I’ll be the first one to admit that I’m really hard on guys that are suspected of steroids, but Tejada I love. I can’t give you a reason why. I just thought you needed to know that.

Wilfredo Ledezma - He looked fine, until he was pulled after 63 pitches. The Braves announcers said he might have hurt himself going after a popup. (The Padres didn’t broadcast the game. Word on the street is they’re contemplating not showing the Padres when they’re batting either.) I couldn’t get confirmation on this injury, so, ya know, stay tuned. Or not. You do what you do.

Troy Percival - The most surprising thing to me is that he’s still the closer. Okay, the most surprising thing is these were his first earned runs all year.

Eugenio Velez - He’s 1 for his last 19 with two steals. He could end the year with more steals than hits. He could go 30/30. Thirty hits, thirty steals. On any other team, he’s platooning with Willie Mays Hayes.

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

You got some sleepers yesterday. Now you want rookies. What, you want this year’s Ryan Braun? Well, you may have to wait another lifetime because The Hebrew Hammer set the all-time rookie slugging percentage record at .634. These things don’t happen every year. More often than not, you get rookie numbers like Delmon Young put up. Respectable, but nothing more than 5th outfielder type stuff. Just don’t overpay for some of these guys and you’ll be fine. Risk averse? Draft Lyle Overbay and come in fourth in your league. Better yet, draft Chad Tracy and come in 7th. Better still, have your niece draft your team for you. If you’re in a keeper league, you absolutely must draft a few of these 2008 rookies. In advance, you’re welcome.

Joey Votto – Opposite field power in a hitter’s park? Yes, please. All indications point to Votto having the 1st base job in ’08. Dusty Baker at the helm? Okay, Votto might get 120 games in. Baker thwarted Murton’s growth and he could do it again, but Votto looks special. Minors numbers, a near .900 OPS. 1st year projections: .285-20-75

Geovany Soto – I got called out for excluding Soto on my top twenty catchers draft list; I also have money riding on Kristy Joe winning Rock of Love (she looks like a long shot at best) and had Fidel Castro in my ’07 death pool, so I’m not perfect. I’m starting to come around on Soto and he’s looking more and more like he needs to be drafted in every mixed league. Got a PCL MVP under his belt, plus power in Wrigley — fifteen homers might be an underestimate. Still use caution, but Soto might be a great steal on draft day. Projections: .270-17-65

Manny Parra – I’m high on Parra, as he’s already turned up on one of my sleeper lists. Grab rookie pitchers with nasty stuff when the league doesn’t know them, then use extreme caution in their second year when they hit their adjustment period (Jered Weaver in ’07). Projections: 8-3/3.30/1.22/130 over 140 innings. If he’s not in the rotation in April, just wait for Sheets to get injured.

Daric Barton – At 22, I think he’s still way too young to make an impact in mixed leagues, but in AL-only keepers, you gotta grab him. He should be a great one in two years tops; his eye is right out of the Moneyball mold. A top twenty pick overall by 2012 (when, obviously, you will be doing all of your drafting in flying cars). This year’s projections: .290-15-70.

Clay Buchholz – The other day a Sox fan emailed me this, “One word – BuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckett!” Ah, Southies. Buchholz has nasty stuff. An Oswaltian 12-6 that falls off the table, a major league ready changeup combined with a low-90s fastball. AL East is not too kind to pitchers, but he could make an impact this year with a spot in the rotation, which he’ll probably have. Projections: 13-6/4.25/1.20/140 in 160 innings.

Joba Chamberlain – Can’t have a Sox mention without a Yankees follow-up. It’s Constitutional. Obviously, Joba was filthy in ’07 as the 8th inning man. Can he do it again? Sure, but probably as a middle reliever again. At least for part of the year. Does this mean you should avoid him? Nah. As you can see from our 2007 Player Rater, lots of value from solid middle relievers. Projections: 8-2/2.25/1.00/115 in 110 innings.

Cameron Maybin – Wrap your head around this; he was born in 1987. That’s right; the same year Hacksaw Jim Duggan and Iron Sheik were caught doping up in the same car. They were hated rivals! But I digress. Do I see big things for Maybin? Yes, in three years. Let’s just hope he makes the Reggie Abercrombie era a distant memory. Projections: Lots of growing pains and 20 steals. Come back in ’09 mixed-leaguers. NL-Only, take a look. Keepers, you gotta take a flier.

Evan Longoria – Quick stroke with power. Hopefully, the Rays don’t hesitate as long as they did with Upton and Young. Just start the major league clock already! Keep your expectations to a minimal. There will be Mike Seaver-sized growing pains. Projections: .275-15-70

Justin Upton – Now here’s a team that doesn’t hold its prospects in the minors. Technically, he’s not a rookie anymore, but it’s my site and I do as I do. At the time of his call up, Baseball America considered Justin to be the minors’ best prospect. Once upon a time, they awarded the same honor to Gregg Jefferies, back in 1987. (At least it wasn’t Sgt. Slaughter and the Iron Sheik. That would have been devastating.) But, no caveat emptor, Justin’s better than Jefferies. In fact, his ceiling is Miguel Cabrera with the bat and his brother on the bases. 30/30, not this year, but it may not be that far off. I say you should grab him as early as your fourth outfielder in mixed leagues and he’s probably taken already in your keeper. If he’s not and you’re rebuilding, you gotta grab him before someone else. He could be a top twenty player by as early as 2010 (and if you’re following along, that is two years before flying cars). Projections: .290-15-60-25

Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, Steve Pearce – They don’t seem like they’re ready yet, but I’ve been wrong before… Damn you, Fidel!

Post down in the comments names you think I’ve forgotten.