I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.

But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.

In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.

Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.

It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.

Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.

The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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The year was 2005 and my buddy kept talking about his fantasy baseball team. I had no idea what he was saying most the time, because I had never played the game before. Actually I had barely watched any baseball at all. I was a jaded strike fan who was as casual as they come with my knowledge of the game. I knew a little about the local teams and that was about it. Any the hoo, he kept going on and on about this Ryan Howard kid until that name was stuck in my head. Fast forward to March of 2006, he talked me into playing with him and “his” friends for fun… and money. I get to the 10th round of the draft and I need a 1B, so I remember the kid that got drilled into my head the year before and I take Ryan Howard with the pick. That year he put up a 104/58/149/0/.313 line and I won that league. Actually I won for lots of reason, I rosterbated before I knew what that was and I streamed like a mofo. I also never gave him a dime, he took my entry out of my winnings, kept some of it for the next season and I played with them for free for the next five seasons. I hearted Howard like Grey hearts Giancarlo. He was my savior that year. I think I drafted Gagne in the 5th and Fatolo in the 4th… I had no idea what I was doing. But I learned the game by doing and picked it up pretty fast, and now you get to see me at least twice a week. If this angers you, then blame occasional commenter the Birdman for me being here. It’s all his fault.

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What are you all doing here today? It’s Mother’s Day… shouldn’t you be getting out of the basement and going to pick up the pizza for her for once! Go put on your fancy sweatpants, you know, the ones without the hot pocket stains, and put on actual shoes. Slippers or flip flops are not okay today. Seriously, try and do something! Did you remember to write her a Dear Mama letter? What about being mothers little helper and taking out the trash or refilling her bourbon? There are lots of things you can do to help out your Mother. I know they like telling you what to do or what not to do, but sometimes that’s just the way it goes. At least you know mama tried and wasn’t just standing in the shadows… I hope. Let’s be nice to her and  just lay off the yo mama jokes for the day? Cool. Oh, that’s right, you are here for fantasy baseball and not just songs and jokes. Yeah I got jokes.

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Am I the only one still utterly confused by Danny Salazar? The only thing I know he brings to the table for sure is strikeouts. After his first two starts, there was a great deal of chatter that Salazar had finally figured it out and his ascension to heaven to sit on the right side of Roger Clemens and Bob Feller was nearly complete. Yes in this scenario Roger Clemens is dead, and heaven is also full of unabashed racists like Bob Feller. Come to think of it, that’s sounds exactly the way heaven is described in the bible. Either way I’m still not sure what to make of Salazar. On one hand his K rate once again through four starts is phenomenal. On the other hand his HR/FB rate is 22.2%. Which in turn has led to a pretty scary 1.38 HR/9. Then again all of this could be bad luck over a couple of starts. This theory is further supported by his .328 BABIP which tells me he’s in fact been a bit unlucky. The problem is through 188 big league innings his career BABIP is .330. So is he just perpetually unlucky? Or is he a hit or miss, feast or famine type? His FIP of 3.23 and xFIP of 2.18 tell me that yes he has in fact been unlucky. The K/BB of 7.40 is gorgeous just like a horse is, and his BAA of .232 is marvelous. So count me amongst the believers in the Cult of Salazar. So this leads me to today’s matchup with the hotter than fish grease Minnesota Twins. In the last few weeks, the Twinkies have squished the dreams of quite a few daily players looking to cash in on the mantra “beat up on the Twins”. Well have no fear my fellow DFS junkies because Danny Salazar is here and ready to feast on the Twins and their 22.4% K% against righties. As we all well know in DraftKings, K’s are king. Or maybe the drafts are….nevermind. So save a couple of bucks and go Salazar at $8,600 over Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Garrett Richards.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
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The stars sure do look pretty when they align. Our good friends the Phillies just happen to be very bad against right handed pitching (along with many, many other things). They strikeout a lot, don’t hit the ball very hard, and don’t get on base too often. In fact, they are dead last in the league in weighted on base percentage against righties, and dead last in the league in hard hit ball % against righties. Matt Harvey is a righty. Matt Harvey is a very good righty. Matt Harvey is a very very very good pitcher. The stars are aligning, I can see it right now. Happy Matt Harvey day everyone.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“As Bryce Harper passed home plate after his 2nd home run of the three he hit yesterday, Ian Desmond lifted Harper’s helmet and with a flick of the head, Harper’s hair fell back in place. If you get a base hit, you have to stand on base and the helmet weighs down your hair. That’s why Harper uses the home run.” This message was brought to you by Aqua Net. What? It’s better than the same stupid Major League Baseball highlights over and over again on MLB TV — we get it, Bo Jackson threw out a runner! Get a new highlight! It’s also better than a Hanz and Franz commercial — talk about a sad commentary on baseball fans’ demographic. “Hey, Bill, we have a commercial that appeals to 35 to 60-year-old white males. Any ideas where we should place it?” So, Harper hit three monster-sized badonkadonks like a night out as Gabourey Sidibe’s pants and I told you to draft Harper before just about every fantasy baseball ‘pert, so you’re welcome. Don’t mention it. No, no, it’s okay. Okay, fine, you can hug me. Stop trying to touch my mustache! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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I’m popping a cherry of sorts here…  I’m double-dipping in my first ever Pitcher Profile on a hurler already profiled.  But things change!  People change!  Hairstyles change!  I’ll miss you the most, scarecrow!  (bonus points if you know that movie!)

Two years ago, I broke down Chris Archer‘s first career complete game that Summer…  Look at how much we’ve improved!  No weekly rankings, no GIFs, it’s like that was written in the stone age!  At the time, Archer was a young-up-and-comer who even surprised the most die hard of Archer fans, but after going complete twice in a three game span in 2013, really hasn’t shown uber-dominance in any long stretches.  Well, looking back at 2014 he did go on a huge roll starting at the end of May, but never more than say 6 or 7 starts.

After a meh opener, Archer has been a stud the last four, and at age 26 may be finally settling in to an ace-like season.  So I decided to break down his outing yesterday hosting the Blue Jays to see if I think this is a new Archer that is going to maintain dominant numbers all year:

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So let me be the first person on the internet to reference Chris Farley’s Matt Foley character when talking Daniel Norris. You hear me. THEE. FIRST. Don’t google it, just trust me. And what could you really want from this blog? Want me to reference Into The Wild? So what you’re saying is you want to be depressed by Eddie Vedder acoustic material. You can go get mopey on your own time; around here, we aim for the yucks not socio-political stances. BTW, meat is murder, can you sign my petition?!? Now for this young season, our young arm hasn’t really done much in his matchups to garner trust so this is strictly a GPP call but the numbers are there to exploit. Though the season isn’t too far along, the Braves offense wasn’t looking too sparkling on paper against LHPs coming into the year and they’ve proven that on the field so far. In an albeit small sample size of 74 PA, the Braves have a .247 wOBA against southpaws while mustering a woeful 56 wRC+. But that’s what happens when you initially sign Jonny Gomes to be your full time left fielder. Yes, Atlanta, I’m throwing you some shade. There’s a difference between rebuilding and derailing and you definitely crossed that line but it’s all good with me because for $5,800, I just freed up some salary for some bigger bats today. So without further ado, let’s get to it. Here are my scorching hot takes for this Sunday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I got the chills! They’re multiplying. And I’m losing all control. Because the fantasy value Devon Travis is supplying–well, for lack of a better word, it’s electrifying. Oo oo oo! Oh yes, indeed. Friday night Travis was 2-for-5 with his third home run and two RBI. He’s leading off for a mighty Blue Jays line up, batting .375 and he’s currently on a six game hitting streak with ten hits, two homers, five runs and nine RBI in that span. You don’t have to be Danny Zuko to know how rockin’ and rollin’ that is. Dude is systematic, hydromatic, ultramatic! He’s hit in every game he’s played so far except one. Grey’s been telling you to BUY and get Randy for Travis for weeks now! Two weeks, to be exact! Well, now I’m telling you, so you know things are getting serial. If you need a middle infielder, set your heart on Devon Travis. Then sing, “cause to your heart you must be truuuue, nothing left, nothing left for you to do…but pick-up-Dev-on! Off-of-the-waivers-now! Ooo ooo ooo!” What do you mean, you don’t think you like Grease as much as me!? Everybody likes Grease! Travis is owned in just over half of ESPN leagues and that number will surely skyrocket over the weekend. Irregardless! With Jose Reyes sidelined and Devon stepping into the lead off spot, the rookie second baseman is sure to be a valuable fantasy asset going forward. Oh yes, indeed!

Here’s what else happened Friday night in fantasy baseball:

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Greetings y’all, it is finally here! You use Greek in the title and then go hillbilly in the lead paragraph? Look, my ghost writers are very diverse in their backgrounds, m’kay? Gotta let them wax poetic as they want to. Or wax period, honestly. Could use some help with my eyebrows right now if we’re being honest. It’s the one thing me and The Brow have in common. Oh no, a basketball joke on a baseball blog; worlds are colliding! Anyways, opening day is here and that’s both a blessing and a curse in the world of DraftKings. You see, on the one hand, the season is starting and we’re excited. On the other hand, all that data mining you did last year to aid your own ascent up your tourney rankings? Might as well grab the paint thinner and start the Mona Lisa over because plenty of things don’t matter any more. We now have to aggregate some data from over the years and weigh some things out, carry the two, multiply by the square root of an isosceles triangle…OR you can get your subscription to the DFSBot started today and take a look at some of the data I’ll be looking at for today’s slate. How’s that for a god from the machine? But more to the point, it’s opening day and time for some fun. There’s the $100K Moonshot Tourney out there as well as a free $15K Tourney if you’re new to DK and sign up through us. But how do I do such a thing, you ask? Click on the underlined ‘DraftKings’ in this opening paragraph. No, I won’t tell you where it is. Treat it like this is a game of ‘Where’s Waldo’. PS, I referenced a child’s game because this search shouldn’t take that long…I’m still waiting…alright, just gonna have to leave you laggards behind because we have to get this show on the road. Here’s my red hot takes for the Opening Day 2015 Fantasy Baseball DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?