Fantasy Baseball Advice

As some of you know, we developed our own Player Rater methodology called Point Shares about a year ago. Since then, it’s been one big poontrain….zooming past Statgeek Station. Perhaps it’s because my hat and eyewear aren’t goofy enough?

Anyway, we’ve done some informal comparisons in the past w/ ESPN but – after having a prolonged, dorktastic debate on another blog – I decided to take it one step further.  I created a test where I pitted our Point Shares against two other player raters:  ESPN and RotoTimes.

The test went like this:  Create 10 random 10 team leagues and calculate the standings using the real stats.  Then do the same using the rating points for each of the services (so if you add up the ESPN HR player rater points for each team, the one with the most points gets a 10 in HR).  The team point totals calculated by the player raters is compared to the point totals from using the real stats and we added up all the differences (so if the real points total was 70 and the player rater projected 68, it’s worth 2 points).  The lower the point total the better.

Before we go into the results, it’s worth noting that this test puts our Point Shares at a disadvantage.  Why?  Our methodology factors in position and projected team standings so that you can use it to directly estimate the impact of a trade or draft pick.  We adjust our ratings by crediting points against the average found at the player’s position instead of the average hitter.  All stats equal, we know that a catcher will be much more valuable than a 1st baseman (why else would people draft Russ Martin and V-Mart in the 3rd round last year?).  Geovany Soto and Justin Morneau both hit 23 HRs.  While RotoTimes and ESPN ignore position and credit each with the same number of points, we have a 0.5 difference.  This is saying that – assuming you fill the rest of the rosters up with average players – owning Soto will give you a 0.5 advantage in HR points vs. owning Morneau in a 10-team league.

But a test where you just add up rosters takes this out of the equation.  You could conceivably be perfect just by creating a ‘rating point’ completely proportional to the real total.  So 20 vs. 30 HRs could be worth .2 and .3 points or 2 and 3 points, etc.  Will those numbers help determine the value of 20 vs. 30 HRs?  Not really.

Okay, with that said, the results of the test are as follows (if you want to see the spreadsheet, click here – warning: it’s messy).  Out of 100 teams, the total points off by the Player Raters was:

RotoTimes – 112
Razzball Point Shares – 143
ESPN – 152

Our Point Shares were the most accurate for 3 of the 10 leagues while RotoTimes claimed at least a share of 1st in the other 7 (ESPN tied them 3 times).

At a category level, I performed correlation tests between the ‘real’ standings and those of the player raters.  100% would be perfect.

As you can see, Point Shares held up pretty well to ESPN and RotoTimes despite taking on the extra burden of factoring in position and tying it to expected point gains/losses in the standings.  The test did shine light on some improvements we can make on pitcher counting stats (W, SV, K) – note the higher correlation we have on ERA/WHIP because we can directly tie it to IP.

Final summary:

1) RotoTimes is the most accurate of the three.  Combined with the facts that you can both customize the rankings based on league size, categories, roster size, etc. and they provide $ estimates, we’d say this is the best pure ranking tool.

2) Point Shares have proven to be in the same league as these other player raters.  Given the extra utility of Point Shares because it directly estimates the impact on team points of player moves, we’d say our Point Shares are the most useful of the three.

3) ESPN, while not the ‘testwide leader’, did pretty well – especially in hitting stats.  Their biggest pure weakness is ERA/WHIP as it would appear that they don’t factor in IP like Razzball (and, we assume, RotoTimes).  But we’d say their biggest total weakness is that their player points mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.  They are arbitrary numbers that could be used to rank players but not to estimate their value in the standings or worth at the draft table.  They do a good job, though, at keeping it updated throughout the year…

While we at Razzball are content toiling within the modest confines of fantasy baseball blogdom, we occasionally like to flex our journalistic muscles and take on a challenging interview.

Our interview subject is the Republican Vice-President nominee – a politician whose gender, backstory, home state, interviewing talents, charisma, religious views, and ocular skills (wink vs. crazy-eyed stare) have made her the most compelling and polarizing nominee since Andrew Jackson tapped South Carolinian John C. Calhoun. 

It might seem crazy to talk to a VP nominee about fantasy baseball but we urge you, the reader, to consider the parallels between managing a fantasy baseball team and the country.  Would you want the doofus in your league who keeps drafting Garret Anderson and Frank Thomas to be President?  Last thing we need is a President who trades Hawaii for Samoa and Tonga.

Also, it’s worth noting that baseball and the White House have been intertwined for ages.  Examples include:

• President William Taft starting the tradition of the ceremonial first pitch in 1910
• FDR only had sex with his wife Eleanor if she wore a catcher’s mask and coined the term four-bagger in her honor
• The Marshall Plan laid out provisions for teaching baseball in Japan
• JFK loved the Red Sox
• Richard Nixon hated the Reds
• Jimmy Carter liked peanuts
• Ronald Reagan went a bit Cracker Jack at the end of his 2nd term
• George HW Bush played baseball at Yale
• Bill Clinton coached women’s softball and enjoyed visits to the mound (okay, made up the coaching part)
• George W Bush was managing partner of the Texas Rangers and many people wish he had stayed in that role instead of moving to politics

On to our interview with Sarah Palin…

Rudy:  Mrs. Palin, we appreciate you taking time out of your busy schedule to do this interview.

Palin:  Oh, it’s my pleasure.  My advisers thought it would be good if I only did interviews with those outside the media elite – all that gotcha journalism…

Rudy:  That sounds like a good strategy.  So I know about your passion for hockey.  Are you as much of a pitbull on fantasy baseball?

Palin:  You betcha.  I grew up in Alaska where girls were expected to hunt, play fantasy sports, fish, all that stuff.

Rudy:  What fantasy baseball sites and blogs do you read to keep you informed?

Palin:  Oh, I’ve read most of them with a great appreciation for their player advice and statistical insights…

Rudy:  Any specific ones?

Palin:  All of ‘em.  Any of ‘em that have popped up on my computer screen over these years.

Rudy: What is John McCain’s feelings on fantasy baseball?

Palin:  He’s a big fan.  He’s been in Arizona a lot longer than the Diamondbacks (editor’s note:  not the baseball team.  the actual snake that the team is named after and is indigenous to Arizona) so fantasy baseball is really where he first had a rootin’ interest.  He’s the original fantasy baseball maverick.

Rudy:  How so?

Palin:  He crossed the aisle to create a bi-partisan fantasy baseball league in the Senate.  He has worked with both parties on unfair trade policies.  I think we’ve all been in leagues where someone goes “Oh, my team isn’t doin’ so well so you’re my friend and I’m gonna help ya by givin’ ya all my good players for nothin’”. Well, John McCain stepped in and stood up to those special interests.  When lobbyists offered to sponsor a big prize for the league winner, John McCain said “Only if you pay for 2nd place too.”

Rudy:  Can you name one instance where John McCain did anything maverick in his drafting?  In his roster management?

Palin:  He once drafted Hee-seop Choi just to watch him die on his bench.

Rudy:  Okay, then…Can you elaborate on your policy that you refuse to drop a player from your team under any circumstances?

Palin:  Rudy, I believe every draft pick is sacred.  A blessing.  I held onto Hunter Pence all year despite him havin’ a bad year because, well, he sounded like one of my sons.

Rudy:  But aren’t there cases where it’s ok to drop a guy off your roster?  Say you drafted Mark Prior and he’s not expected off the DL anytime soon and you don’t have an open DL slot.  What would you say to someone who wanted to drop Mark Prior in this instance?

Palin:  I would council them to keep Mark Prior on the roster.  He’s a perfectly beautiful pitcher that has special needs….

Rudy:  Let’s step back from fantasy baseball and talk about a broader topic:  baseball.  What do you see as the most serious issues facing baseball today?

Palin:  Oh, I’m glad you asked, Rudy.  I think the most troublin’ thing facing baseball is our dependence on foreign baseball players in our national pastime.  We have domestic supplies of athletes all over this great land but we aren’t tappin’ into ‘em…instead we’re relyin’ on foreign countries to produce ‘em for us.  MLB teams – usin’ taxpayers’ ticket revenues may I add – are circulatin’ almost $1 billion a year into players not born in America.  Those jobs should stay here doggone it.

Rudy:  Some argue that Alaskans are out of touch with this internationalization of baseball as the closest baseball team – the Seattle Mariners – is nearly 1,500 miles away from Alaska.  How do you respond?

Palin:  What those people don’t realize is that Alaska has a land boundary with Canada.  On a clear day, I can see Larry Walker trippin’ over carcasses in the Yukon Territory.    When you consider that Justin Morneau won the MVP two years ago and Erik Bedard ruined so many fantasy teams this year and, as Jason Bay rears his head in Boston…I mean as Canadians invade America to get on baseball rosters, where are they goin’ to go?

Rudy:  Seattle?  Milwaukee?  Maybe just play in Toronto?

Palin:  And the Alaska Baseball League.  But I’m glad you mentioned Milwaukee because I’m a big fan of Ryan Braun.  He’s our best ally in “The Middle West.”

Rudy:  You’ve got the attention of tens and tens of fantasy baseball readers.  What would you like to say to them?

Palin:  My Razzball-Americans…(Editor’s note: We know of, and appreciate, our readers who live outside America.  Razzball Nation has no country barriers.)…Senator McCain and I are mavericks who will fight for all the hard-workin’ everyday Americans and Joe Six Packs out there.  We will stand up to the ESPN’s and Yahoo’s and CBS Sports of the world.  We know you’re sick of all those (ESPN) Insiders tellin’ ya how you should manage your team.  We will reform the system and fight those that want to raise league fees.  Barack Obama wants to veto your trades, tax your winnings, and has been known to pal around with known terrorists like Matthew Berry.

Rudy:  Thank you for your time, Ms. Palin.

Palin:  Well, again, Rudy, I do want to thank you and Grey for having me on your blog. This is such an honor.  Oh, and here’s a shout-out to all you I play against in the ‘Drill My Refuge’ fantasy baseball league.

Nothing fires up leaguemates more than trades. Accusations of collusion, usury, and stupidity get thrown around like grenades. Everyone loves a good drama but this verbal warfare is usually more irksome than anything. Since collusion is so hard to prove, here are some general principles for gauging a trade and how I would react to trades that violated these principles:

1) The player(s) on either side of the trade should be within reasonable value to each other. This is the most basic test of the trade. Stripped of all context (what does each team need?), is the trade within reason? This doesn’t mean you feel the trade is balanced. I almost always prefer one side of a trade vs. the other. But everyone has their own perspective on players and you have to respect that. So if someone thinks it is worth trading Carlos Lee for Alex Rios, I would disagree but it’s within reason. If they traded Carlos Lee for Alex Cintron, it’s unreasonable. Basically, If you have a shred of doubt, it’s reasonable.

2) Both trading partners should be equally responsive to trades. We all play in leagues where some people are closer than others. We all play in leagues where perhaps two people are bitter rivals and/or don’t get along so are unlikely to ever agree on a trade. These are just the realities of leagues. But there are cases where players basically go MIA in a league. They make roster changes infrequently at best. They don’t respond to trade offers, etc. When this type of player ends up making a trade with someone they are friends with in the league, this is unfair.

3) The trade should help both teams. Even the most lopsided of trades can sometimes be justified based on team needs. “Yes, I overpaid for a closer but I can make up 3 points with just 10 saves!” And there are cases where one player (not a serious one, mind you) will make a trade simply because they really like a player. Fair enough. But, independent of the value from each side of the trade, the trade should not make a team worse off in terms of accumulating the most points (Roto) or wins (H2H). Since the point of a single-season league is to accumulate the most points, such a move can’t help but evoke suspicion in other leaguemates. The easy litmus test is if such a trade was done by two friends, would you suspect collusion?

Rudy’s recommended courses of action:

Veto – This should ONLY be used in the case of a clear violation in #1. It helps to ask someone outside the league to get a more impartial opinion. I don’t even recall the last time I vetoed a trade – had to have been at least a couple years ago.

Give Leaguemates Shit For It – This is my tactic for close cases on #1 as well as #2 and #3. There are levels to it, though. In one expert league this year, there was a trade of Vlad for Michael Bourn and Moises Alou. Ridiculous trade in my eyes as Vlad easily provides more value. But it was close enough when you factor in Bourn’s speed that I didn’t want to veto. So I posted this on the message board “…I can’t be the only one thinking Vlad for Bourn and Alou is a questionable trade? That is, unless 0-fers and DL Trips were added as categories…” The Vlad side did their best to justify the trade but there’s no doubt he knows they got the better end. In my cash league, if it’s one of my two biggest rivals (Grey and L-Dog), I’ll do anything I can to elicit guilt or anger. Grey pulled a MASSIVE #2 trade last year, getting Reyes for Vlad from his friend who wouldn’t respond to our trades. He just pulled a massive #3 trade this year getting Braun for Crawford from a team that was 9th in RBI, whose top OF is Ichiro, and has no other 3B option waiting in the wings. I’ve given him shit. I keep giving him shit. I will keep giving him shit.

Don’t Play With the ‘Loser’ Side of the Trade Again – A team who is on the losing side of a #1 trade is probably a very weak player. If you’re playing in a big money cash league, I’d keep the cow in the league. If it’s for minor stakes or no money, boot them out. In the case of #2, a team that’s unresponsive to trades and doesn’t keep their roster current is useless anyway. Making trades with friends just makes it that much easier to not play with them again. For #3, this is the same rationale as #1.

Don’t Play With the ‘Winner’ Side of the Trade Again – This is a much tougher call since this person is likely competitive. If I strongly suspected collusion, I wouldn’t play with them again. If they repeatedly make lopsided offers or trades that don’t help the other side, they usually alienate or neutralize leaguemates enough to correct these practices. I would lean towards the ‘Giving Shit’ response as well as loosening up your trading principles if they are higher than such leaguemates.