Fantasy Baseball Advice

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay - When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia - Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum - Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee - You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana - Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels - Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb - Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana - Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren - Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster - What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden - “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco - In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina - 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe - In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt - Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets - Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez - I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields - The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 - 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley - See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka - In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

After 85 years, Yankee Stadium closed its doors last night. Some of the landmark feats that occurred there include, Dale Berra once did a line of coke in the very place where his Dad said something bordering on stupid, but was misconstrued as brilliant, Bernie Williams once tossed a guitar pick to Jeter who used it to de-semenate Jessica Alba and Babe Ruth once told Lou Gehrig, “You should’ve just got herpes like me.” But alas Yankee Stadium’s bidding us adieu. Here’s hoping all of the graffiti artists, trench-coated scalpers, pickpockets and general nogoodniks find their way across the street to the new park. Maybe they can drive a stolen car over there. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine - Devine was called on to pickup his first save in yesterday’s game. So Ziegler was overworked, right? Wrong. Ziegler was brought into the eighth inning, yet there was no discernible reason why he worked the eighth and was not saved (punny!) for the ninth. The only reason that seems plausible is the A’s want Devine to be their closer in 2009, with Ziegler taking the 7th or 8th innings, and sometimes both. Both pitcher profile better for these roles and Devine has done all he needs to do to prove himself this year. His ERA and WHIP are almost as fly as my mustache.

John Lackey - 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER and 12 Ks. Later this week, he might get nothing but a tuneup for the playoffs.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday. Mentioned to pickup Blalock on Friday. Somehow he made it through the whole weekend without injuring himself so he’s still an add.

Chone Figgins - Back in the starting lineup finally after being sidelined with SSE — Scrawny Sore Elbow. The Angels will probably continue to rest him here and there this week, so he’s no guarantee to play in every game.

Garrett Atkins - HR yesterday for his 20th. Supposed to hit 20 home runs by the All-Star break. Did he get old at the age of 28 or something?

Paul Konerko - HR yesterday. 9 home runs since August 1st, which isn’t exactly a new record or anything, but he’s been usable, especially with the injuries he’s battled.

Scott Lewis - 5 IP, 3 ER. Recorded the win, but barely got out of this one alive as he walked or allowed a base hit to just about everyone he saw.

Diasuke Matsuzaka - 7 IP, 0 ER. Supposed to start on Friday, but you should be prepared for him to throw a short game as he prepares for the playoffs.

David Ortiz - 4th home run in the last 6 games. Pure speculation on my part, but it seems like he got a cortisone shot in his wrist and now it’s paying dividends as the Sawx head to the playoffs. Just as the people on Yawkey would want it. (Again, I’m not a doctor and I don’t even know if you can get a cortisone shot in your wrist. This is all Cust kayin’.)

Roy Oswalt - Only throw 79 pitches so he can throw 80 more in three days if the Astros are still in the Wildcard race, then will start again next Monday if there’s reason to make up the game with the Cubs.

Adam LaRoche - Sore hamstring took him out of the game. He day-to-day, which is slightly less painful than listening to Soul 2 Soul.

Pablo Sandoval - Missed the last two games because of a strained quad. During a press conference, Sandoval’s strained quad said, “Have you seen the size of the guy I’m helping carry around? Next question!” Apparently strained relations, as well.

Roy Oswalt threw his second consecutive shutout yesterday. In his last 32 1/3 innings, he’s been scoreless. Since the All-Star break, he has a 1.94 ERA in 10 starts. He just farted into a bottle and it sold at a Sotheby’s auction for $1.7 million. The cure for the common cold is in Oswalt’s passed wind! Oswalt’s one of the main reasons the Astros are late season contenders and all of this comes as the Cubs and Astros shutter their windows. They’ve been canceled for this Friday and Saturday with a good chance of Sunday being canceled too. In H2H (all leagues actually), you must fill-in your Cubs and Astros with guys that will be playing.  Also, I hope everyone who lives in the eye of the storm is safe. Razzball sends a giant umbrella the size of Prince Fielder’s backside your way. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark Ellis - Out the rest of the season with a torn labrum. This gives Eric Patterson a boost in value as he fills in for Ellis. He has speed and he is a middle infielder, do you need to know more? Rhetorical!

Adrian Beltre - Debating whether to shut it down for the season to have surgery on his torn ligament in his thumb. Guess he doesn’t want to miss out on the race to a .400 winning percentage.

Francisco Liriano - Pitched a season-high eight innings at just the right time. He should be up to speed for spring training next year and ready to put together a solid season. I’m sure he’ll be on everyone’s winter “Players to Watch” list. He might be on my “Players That Are On Everyone’s ‘Players to Watch’ List And Have Suddenly Become Overpriced” list.

B.J. Upton - Might be used as pinch hitter this weekend, but he’s not playing on Friday, according to Maddon ‘08.

George Sherrill - Will be back on Friday and thrust right into the closer’s role. If he’s out there and you need saves, there’s no reason not to grab him.

Brandon Morrow - 5 IP, 2 ER, while walking 4. Here was the erratic pitcher from the minors. This is closer to what I would expect going forward, rather than the number he did on the Yankees last week.

Adrian Gonzalez - 2 HRs. Wow, did he take two and a half months off or what? With these two home runs, he has 10 home runs since July 1st. He had 10 home runs in May. As Thigpen would say, “Bleh!”

Josh Hamilton - Day-to-day with a bruised foot. You really can’t complain. You were getting high on his supply all summer.

Eugenio Velez - Another two hit night. If you pick him up, it doesn’t mean you endorse him. You’re just using him for a couple of days. Maybe a week.

Matt Cain - He took a dump sometime in August and it’s been running down his leg ever since. I would not be counting on him the rest of the way.

Rich Harden - Got the win in the return as he was limited to 86 pitches. His velocity was down; his moxy was up. If he can get through three more starts, consider yourself lucky.

Jair Jurrjens - 6 IP, 4 ER and 10 Ks. The Ks are on the high side for him, but 6 IP with 3 to 4 earned runs is about what should be expected.

David Price - The Orioles are hinting he might start the September 23rd game. Presumably, after doing the weather for The Early Show.

Francisco Rodriguez - Tied Bobby Thigpen’s Major League record for saves. Bobby Thigpen watched the record-tying save from his personalized booth at his local Outback Steakhouse. When asked about what the record has meant to him, he said, “Bleh!” When pressed he said, “Bleh! Bleh!” When asked to elaborate, he burped.

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui - Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw - 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson - Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis - About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier - 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena - HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora - 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez - 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks - Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios - 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt - Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington - Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton - HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis - Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind - HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones - Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss - Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler - Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

Sometimes getting to the World Series takes more than just talent.  Sometimes it takes a little psychological machinations to make it happen.  Sabathia brings the Brewers a talented co-ace with Sheets (bit of advice:  Sabathia was gassed at the end of the year - let him pitch a few 6 inning starts).  Durham provides them a motivational cattle prod for Rickie Weeks to step it up. The Brewers can say this was all about improving their depth but, really, do they make this trade if Weeks wasn’t hitting .216?  And it’s not like the Brewers are unafraid to make midseason adjustments.  Remember when they traded for F-Cord after Turnbow started to Turnbad? For his sake (and his FLB owners), Weeks better get hitting. When you think you can win the pennant, you put egos and reputations on ice. Remember the 1996 Yanks?  They were starting Charlie Hayes and Cecil Fielder over Wade Boggs and Tino Martinez at times. It’s all about production. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell - Coughed up 3 ER in 1 IP. The other day 4 ER in 1 IP. Bud Black realizes the pain felt by San Diego that comes with every Trevor Hoffman 9th inning blown save so he’s now taught Heath Bell how to blow saves in the 7th or 8th.

St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus is hitting .284 and hits HRs every day.  Aaron Miles just went 3-for-5 with 3 runs and 4 RBI.  Let’s put it this way - if Larussa had the dice in his hand at a Craps table, I’m putting all my chips on the Come line.

Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 5 ER. When walking outside in SF make sure you keep an eye on the sky, Lincecum’s falling to earth. And there’s nothing worse than getting Lincecum falling in your face. (And that’s a different Come line.)

Aaron Cook - Notched his 12th victory with 7 IP, 3 ER and an under one WHIP. I cannot believe I still have this schmohawk on my team in a ten team league, but he’s been better than I expected. I think the way he pitched in the All-Star game really showcased what he does best — get guys to groundout.

Kelly Shoppach - Now with 8 HRs…one for every million unhappy V-Mart fantasy baseball drafters.

Brian Wilson - A one inning Kazaam outing with 2 ER.  Wilson owners do not smile.  Some even make pet sounds.

Jaime Garcia - Gave up a home run to Cha Seung Baek. Cha Seung Baek you’ve just won a new Hyundai! Garcia is high on walks, decent Ks, very young. Deep league flier and matchups — like yesterday against the Padres, which didn’t turn out that swell. See first sentence of this entry.

Jose Guillen - Out of the starting lineup since the All-Star break with back spasms but contributed on Sunday with a SB and run in a pinch-hitting gig.  Assuming he doesn’t throw a tantrum and hurt himself, he should be a go in the next day or so.  Given he only has 1 RBI in his last 8 starts, keep him on the bench if you have a safer option.

Brandon Lyon - Two straight bad outings. This time, he spared Haren and took out his wrath on Webb.  Who misses Valverde?

Austin Kearns - 3-for-5 and scored 5 times in the rout against Atlanta, finally giving fantasy owners (all 16 of them) the right type of runs.

Mark Teixeira - 2 HRs in a losing cause.  Speak of losing causes, when are the Braves going to trade him?  Maybe the White Sox?

Jacoby Ellsbury - 0-for-5. The law firm of Jacoby Ellsbury just got served (you’re on your own figuring out that mixed metaphor). About .250 over the last two months, which I’d accept if he were stealing bags. He has one in July and it came on the first day of the month.

Edinson Volquez - 5 IP, 4 ER and he actually got lucky or there would’ve been more earned runs. You can’t say I didn’t warn you that the end of the brilliance was near.

Scott Baker - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8 Ks and was outpitched by Vicente Padilla who moved to 11-5. When a reporter asked Padilla if he thought he had a shot at 20, Padilla began to cackle at the absurdity of the thought. Latest reports confirm that he is still cackling.

Erik Bedard - Bedard out until August. Glass is half full, that’s only ten days away. Half empty, soon he’ll be out for the season.

Roy Oswalt - To the 15-day DL with a hip abductor strain. I wanted someone to take us through this to better understand how quickly Oswalt could return, so I asked the one person I know with hip problems. Grey’s Grandma, “A hip abductor strain? I think that’s the same thing Milldred got when she shouted Bingo. Supposedly, she didn’t even really have Bingo. She thought the Father said B-4, but he said “before.” Real shame to get something like a hip injury on a falsie. Have you seen my reading glasses? I put them next to the TV Guide and now I can’t find them. I wanted to do the crossword.”