Fantasy Baseball Advice

Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley.  It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others.  For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?

With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2^nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball.  (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.)  For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.”  So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ‘2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one….

#1 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  32%

Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks.  His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)

So why is he #1 on the list?  He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard.  Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders.  Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.

If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season.  Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.

#2 – Ross Ohlendorf

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  24%

Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep  leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009.  Translation:  Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.

#3 – Kevin Correia

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  30%

Petco : ERA is equal to:

a)      Baco : Salad

b)      Balco : HRs

c)      Maaco: Brakes

d)     Yoko : Oh no Beatles!

e)     All of the above

The correct answer is E.  Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre.   12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43^rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.

The problem?  While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors.  Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls).  You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common?  We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….

#4– Joba Chamberlain

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  22%

I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.

As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway.   But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.

Pass on him as a starter.  Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.

#5 – Randy Wells

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  27%

Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009.  Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.

While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.

But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average).  He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).

#6 – Adam Wainwright

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches:  No.
Slider %: 19%

#7 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero.  Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?

Case in point:  Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year.  His 3,614 pitchers were 3^rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632).  Sabathia was #4 at 3,587.  Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury).   He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors.  Who was 2^nd in the most breaking pitchers?  None other than Chris Carpenter.

There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners).   For Wainwright, he had the 5^th most effective slider and 2^nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8^th and 17^th respectively).  His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5^th most effective).

Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers?  Tough to say.  But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

#8 – Jason Hammel

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  14.9%

The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP.  In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).

On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches.  And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider).  So he’s not too much ’safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.

#9 – Jeff Niemann

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high.  Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel.  He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP).  While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid.  And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.

His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.

This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals.  How’s that for double talk (talk)?    But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him.  I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.

#10 – Gavin Floyd

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The first returnee from last year!  Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.

And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).

I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd:  1) You win Round #1 and  2) Good luck winning Round #2.

I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.

#11 – Ryan Dempster

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  34%

The second returnee from last year!  Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief.  Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008.  That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.

I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%).  It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).

So be careful before you Dempster dive….

#12 – Jorge de la Rosa

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  15%

George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky.  De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.

While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much.  He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.

He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.

But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only.  If he comes cheap, grab him.  Otherwise, pass.

#13 – Max Scherzer

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.

Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.

But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher.  Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year.  Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.

I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.

#14 – Ricky Romero

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  13%

Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13).  A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).

My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards.  Follow that instinct.

#15 – Joel Pineiro

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  12%

Talk about an efficient pitcher.  Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170).  No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!

So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency.  And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling.  In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.

I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him.  If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.

#16 – Edwin Jackson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce.  Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.

To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious.  To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.  In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).

Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders.  His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1.  Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.

The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.

#17 – Scott Feldman

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  2%

Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins.  17 wins?!  AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!

Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates.  So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.

The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd.  44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve.  He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else.  That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9).  The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%).  Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH.  Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH.  Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness.  Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.

Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.

#18 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever.  How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP?  You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%).  If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.

All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me.  He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%).  Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year.   But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.

#19 – Tommy Hanson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  24%

Mmm…flop?  No, definitely no.  Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher.  I still want him on at least one of my teams.  The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.

The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s.  24% sliders and another 14% curveballs.  He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.

I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.

#20 – Josh Johnson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion).  He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH).  He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.

But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be.  I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood.  Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.

I’m sure even Kevin Gregg can’t believe he held the Cubs closer job as long as he did.  After witnessing Gregg’s sixth blown save and 12th gopher ball on Monday night, Piniella went into the locker room and flipped a table, screaming at a young, non-mustachioed Willie Randolph… Oh, wait, that was The Bronx is Burning.  Piniella says Carlos Marmol will take over the closer duties.  Carlos Marmol smiles, Kevin Gregg frowns and Angel Guzman shrugs.  John Grabow may also slide into the situational save picture when the Cubs face a lefty heavy ninth.  But, for now, Sweet Lou’s giving the ball to Marmol to save games.  As of today.  We shall see.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Travis Snider – Guess JP Ricciardi can’t swing a deal for Lincecum and the frozen body of Ted Williams, so Snider was called up.  Worth a flier in mixed leagues for the potential pop he can provide.  In one league, out of boredom, I dropped Ty Wigginton for Snider.  Oh, and Snider hit a homer yesterday.

Randy Ruiz – Hit his third homer in a week.  He’s 31-years-old.  You don’t get to be 31 and still a rookie without a giant pancake of mediocrity covering you.  Might continue to hit bombs for the rest of this season.  Or maybe just for the rest of this week.  My guess is he has a hot week in him, then he drops like a ton of 31-year-old rookie bricks.

Francisco Liriano – Headed to the Disgraceful List with Can’t Throw Effectivelyitis. I think he’s fallen to the point where he might actually be a solid sleeper in 2010 drafts.  We’ll have to wait for official word from February Grey as he rarely shares his info with August Grey.

Joe Mauer – 2 HRs yesterday as he bats .383 on the year.  After the game, he cured cancer.

Delmon Young – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, his 2nd homer in the last three games and already has more homers this month than he had the entire 1st half of the year.

Ivan Rodriguez – The Rangers acquired Pudge (<–at one point this nickname wasn’t ironic).  Now the Rangers just need to acquire Jose Canseco and a bunch of syringes.  According to the Rangers, Pudge will be a backup.  I don’t see why they’d use him in that capacity.  I think most of Teagarden and Salty’s value is hurt with the addition of Pudge, not that they really had much value anyway.

Carlos Quentin – HR yesterday.  On one hand, I kinda want him to bomb the rest of this season so he goes quietly into next year’s draft.  On the other hand, I own him in a league and would like some production.  On the third hand, I want him to have surgery on his foot so there’s no problem next year.  He’s refusing surgery as of right now.  And, yes, I have three hands.

Freddy Garcia – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Right back where he left off!

Pedro Martinez/Jamie Moyer – Combined for a one run, 4 hitter.  If only Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau were around to see it.

Alex Gordon – Was optioned to Triple-A.  As frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, pointed out, Gordon could be a nice October call up.

Carlos Gonzalez – HR yesterday, now has 5 homers in the last seven games.  Not sure what you’re waiting for, loyal Razzball reader.

Clint Barmes – HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, who has more homers, Barmes or Hawpe?  Obviously if I’m pointing it out, it’s Barmes.  But that’s crazy.  Though I’m not sure it’s crazy good for Barmes or crazy bad for Hawpe.  I think it’s the latter, as in what Hawpe walked under before the season.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER.  Now has a 3.41 ERA on the year and on his way to 180 Ks on the year.  Aren’t you glad you own him and didn’t worry about whether or not he’s a Rockies pitcher?  Or don’t you wish you owned him and stopped worrying about owning a Rockies pitcher?

Lastings Milledge – Hit his first homer of the year yesterday.   Could be the start of something…

Ross Ohlendorf – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks as he got his 11th win yesterday and has a 4.15 ERA on the year.  What the ‘dorf?!  If you own Ohlendorf, you’re teetering between brilliance and insanity like an abstract painter or an MMA fighter.

Alex Avila – Hit his third homer yesterday as he bats near .450 through 20 ABs.  Worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, but he’s seeing less time behind the plate than Nicole Richie.

Matt Wieters – Hit his fourth homer to stay in front of Alex Avila, who has 180 less at-bats than Wieters.

Rick Porcello – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks vs. the Mariners.  For a guy with a 4.5 K/9, the 8 Ks can only mean one thing.  Porcello was imagining facing Ichiro Youkilis, Russell Youkilis and Franklin Youkilis aka The Big F-You.

Derek Lowe – 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER as he allowed the Mets to record ten hits in one inning, which was a new club record.  An offensive club record with Luis Castillo as your hitting star?  Lowe hadn’t looked that bad since Speidi’s wedding.  I know you wanna drop Lowe, but I wouldn’t.

Ricky Nolasco – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Good to see him bounce back after his last outing left you muttering to yourself as you ate a pint of Mint Chocolate Chip.

Julio Borbon – 3-for-4, 3 steals as the Rangers stole 6 bases vs. Mauer.  Hey, he was out curing cancer!

Pat Burrell – Returned from a stiff neck with a homer.  He still has 19 to go to save his season.  I think he pulls up ten short, so he still has… You do the math!

David Price – 5 IP, 2 ER.  Price was mentioned in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown whatchamacallit.  Now I’m hearing murmurs that Price could go to the bullpen for the return of Sonnanstine.  Act like ya know, MC Lyte!

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday.  That’s right!  You’re not the Secretaryman, you’re not the Administrativeassistantman, you’re the Bossman!  Now take charge!

Kyle Blanks – Hit an inside-the-park-homer.  The only explanation for a 300 lbs guy getting an inside-the-park-homer is the Cubs pulled their team from the field because Padres fans were littering the field with empty bottles of White Zinfandel.

Chris Davis was sent to the minors last night to make room for Josh Hamilton.  In the preseason, Bill James’s projections for Chris Davis were 107/40/118/.302/8.  I thought that was a tad optimistic.  And “tad optimistic” there is like saying, “Hey, this Ben Affleck movie might be okay.”  Those predictions and the proceeding hype sent Davis’s ADP through the roof.  To the point where I decided to punt 3rd base in all of my drafts and take Mark Reynolds.  I went over why in this preseason post.  Now I’m not saying I wasn’t at fault either.  Back in December, I said Davis was a sleeper when he was going after Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins.  When the hype picked up, I backed off.  Though I did give Davis pretty generous preseason numbers too at 75/30/95/.275/3.  But I have a fantasy baseball blog; I’m not Bill James.  I think someone should ping Bill James (the kids say ping, ask one what it means) and say, “Hey, Bill, big fan.  Lots of great stuff through the years.  Sorry to ping you this late, but a few quick rhetorical questions.  Chris Davis?  Seriously?  Did you not follow the ruler across the paper correctly on Pujols’s name?”  In the Better News Dept., David Murphy should get more time now that Davis is gone as Blalock moves to first.  Though I’m not sure how long Blalock can stay healthy playing that demanding of a position.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s roundup, I just wanted to say we have an announcement coming later in the 2nd post of the day.  Around 11:30 AM PST.  Make sure to check back later.  Some of you might enjoy it.  While others may say, “Meh.”  Okay, now for the roundup:

Scott Hairston – Traded to the A’s.  Not sure there could be more of a lateral movement for Hairston’s value.  Unless you’re in an NL-Only league and you lose his services to the best available option off waivers.  Then again, maybe that’s lateral too. The Padres got Craig Italiano — I hear he makes a great chicken parm — and Ryan Webb, no relation to Brandon.  If you’re not following, the Padres traded away their number three hitter for the stuff you find under your couch.

Will Venable – Will see more ABs with Hairston out of town.  This could actually hurt Venable’s value.

Kyle Blanks – Rudy Gamble’s brother from the same mother could also see more time.  Be nice to see The Pillsbury Fro Boy do something other than strikeout.  As far as his fantasy value, we already filled in the *pinkie to mouth* Blanks.

Scott Downs – Should be back any day now.  As always, I’d hold Frasor for the time being until Downs has shown he’s healthy.

Chien-Ming Wang - Something’s Wang.  Hehe.  Hit the DL.  Peace out, Wang.  Don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya.

Ben Sheets – May not pitch this year.  No way!  C’mon!  Are you serious?  Crazy!

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 1 ER.  A good game and the Diamondbacks gave him runnage?  Wow.  Talk about a good day.  And I didn’t have any hodgepadres ruining my ERA yesterday.  Nice.

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER and 8 unearned as he tied his owners to a WHIPing Post.  “Joba Rules” this year are a bunch of walks, unreliable from start to start no matter the matchup and unfulfilled promise.  Maybe that’s why he drinks and not, “Owen, you stupid poop!”

Ricky Nolasco – 8 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  When I gave you the advice in mid-May to Buy Nolasco, I sure hope some of youse listened.

Derrek Lee – Another homer yesterday.  How dare you call me Lyle Overbay? But you kinda are just a rich man’s Lyle Overbay.  I’ll call you Thurston Overbay, the Third.

Jake Fox – HR yesterday.  Will be interesting to see how Sweet Lou flips the craft services table when Aramis returns today.

Randy Johnson – Left the game with a shoulder injury.  I foresee an abbreviated spring training comeback in 2010 and then he retires.

Rich Aurilla – HR yesterday.  I really thought he was retired.  I’m not even joking.  I’m not sure which is more despicable.  That Aurilla is holding the Giants hostage by not retiring or that the Giants don’t just release him.

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 13th homer.  Matt Wieters hit a homer too.  Natch!  Or is it reverse natch since I’m the one always cracking on his output?  Hmm… I got lost in my own natchs.

Grady Sizemore – 2 homers and one steal since his return as he bats .270.  Eh.

Cliff Lee – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Has a 3.45 ERA on the year.  That seems more in line with Lee than what we saw last year.

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 2 ER. Doesn’t he sound like a haute couture jeans designer?  I wouldn’t bother with Gio Gonzalez in an 18-team league that only uses Oakland A’s players.

Adam Lind/Aaron Hill – Hit their 18th and 20th homers, respectively.  Lind bats .310 while Hill bats .299.  Still don’t see either as a sell high candidate, but that shizz is relative.  If you get the right deal, by all means.

Colby Rasmus – Hit his 10th homer as he bats .282.  Little late to the party now if you pick him up, but you could be doing a lot worst for your fourth or fifth outfielder.  I’m looking at you, Fred Lewis.

Chris Carpenter – 7 IP, 1 ER.  This is not to say Carp isn’t solid, but right now the Reds look like they’re facing the House Committee on Un-American Activities every time out.

Ross Ohlendorf – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Dorf!

Garrett Jones – Two Pirates mentioned in the same roundup.  Arghh, it’s raining doubloons!  Jones hit two homers in his last four games.  I don’t know where this schmohawk is headed, but right now he’s on one of my teams.  He may not last, but better to take the flier if you have room than to let someone else grab the hot rookie.  Remember, I gave you the same advice for The Dread Pirate about a month ago.  I’m still rocking him on one team. (He stole his 6th base yesterday as he bats .300).

Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  Finally, six innings!  I picked him up in a 12 team league last week, but haven’t start him yet.  I’ll start him now.

Martin Prado – 4-for-4 as he starts every day.  If you owned Kelly Johnson, then I’m sure the Cox yanking was suprisingly unpleasant, but Prado can ease your pain.

Derek Lowe – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Right now, he’s alternating between decent start and terrible.  Luckily, he gets the Rockies in Colorado next time out, so that’s an easy call to sit him.  Hopefully he’s back to a reliable starter after the ASB.

Jimmy Rollins – HR yesterday and is 7 for his last 15.  If he hits .400 over the next month, you’ll be glad you remained patient.

Joe Blanton – 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  He gets Pittsburgh next.  All aboard!

Nick Blackburn – 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  With a name only one letter off from a porn star with chlamydia, it’s easy to stay away, right?  I look at it this way.  There’s so many pitchers each week that are potential spot starters, even in deep leagues, that I just don’t want any part of a guy that has 51 Ks in just over 116 innings.

Casey McGehee – 3-for-4 yesterday.  On Saturday, he went 4-for-5 with a homer.  Okay, this is the last I’m mentioning him.  Fo realz.

Vladimir Guerrero – Two days, two homers.  Was he prematurely shipped off to the glue factory?  I don’t think so.  I’d still be looking to sell him.  Now you might actually find someone who believes he still has some giddy-up left.  In related news, Brian Roberts still has twice as many homers as Vlad the ‘97 Impala.

Howie Kendrick – Recalled and stole a base yesterday.  Here’s what I said two weeks before Kendrick was sent down to the minors, “What do the Angels do with a 2nd baseman who has 18 homers in 179 ABs in Triple-A?  Promote him and demote Howie Kendrick?  Or do the Angels promote Rodriguez, demote Kendrick, wait two weeks until Kendrick starts hitting in the Coors-like PCL and then promote Kendrick right back and demote Rodriguez again like they’ve been doing with Brandon Wood for the last three years?”  And that’s me blowing your mind!  Let me answer 15 comments right off the bat — Beckham, McGehee, Prado, Everth then Kendrick, in that order.

Andre Ethier – HR yesterday.  See, preggers Manny doesn’t even need to be in the lineup for Ethier to start hitting.  I’m half-joking.  This year Ethier’s been better in the power department than I thought he’d be, but I don’t buy that he’s suddenly going to be the .400 hitter we saw in the 2nd half last year just because Manny’s back.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  What else is new?  If any of you are fifteen-years-old, don’t vote for him for the All-Star Game.  We want him to be mad in the 2nd half.  Adrian slept with Clubber mad.  Eye of the Tiger!  Oh, and if you’re fifteen, don’t listen to your parents.  You won’t need geometry.  Though you may need to know how to say, “I don’t know how a dead prostitute got in my bed,” in Spanish.

Carlos Delgado might as well enjoy a Cocktail or two as he’s the latest member of the new hip injury (double entendre) – the torn labrum.  It took A-Rod two months to come back from this and he’s younger, in better shape, and a bigger poser (not sure how the 3rd point is relevant, just felt like saying it).  If you drafted Delgado, you’ve got to just let him go.  No use clogging up a DL slot except if you’re in a real deep league.  Forget the Mets replacements for now – Tatis, Murphy, Kranepool, etc – as none of them have 1B eligibility.  Hopefully you have another player for the 1B slot and can just grab the best 1B/3B available for cornerman.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rickie Weeks – Weeks’s out-for-the-seasony is epidemic, ya’ll.  Hardy likes to hit 2nd and Hart or Counsell would make sense in the leadoff spot.  If Gamel plays 3rd, Counsell or Hall would be play 2nd.  Hall would get a nice boost in value if he gains 2nd base eligibility, which is to say he would go from no value to some value in deep leagues.  This Weeks injury should be a wake up call for all Blalock owners.  One day he’s hitting homers, the next day he has a root canal that sidelines him indefinitely.  Okay, Weeks, Nomar and Baldelli offer you a ride, but the catch is you can’t wear your seatbelt, do you accept the ride?

Mat Gamel – HR and error yesterday.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  Defense be damned!  Gamel got the start at 3rd.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems like how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the right side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.

Kyle Lohse – 4 IP, 4 ER.  He’s not good.  Wait, do I hear an echo?  Oh, no, that’s just me the last five times he’s pitched.

Scott Richmond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Was a good match-up, still not a fan of his going forward.

Ross Detwiler – Was 0-3 with a 2.98 ERA in Double-A.  Sounds like he should be a starter for the Nats!  I wouldn’t go after him outside of NL-Only leagues and even there, I’d want to see more… On someone else’s team.

Joel Hanrahan – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Hanrahanahanananan got Kazaamahamahammed!

Glen Perkins – 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Got flapjacked by the Yanks and now is being sent to the Disgraceful List with elbow inflammation.  I don’t know who the Twins end up replacing him with, but two guarantees:  1) over/under on K/start will be 1.5 and 2) you don’t need to pick him up.

Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton – Rays scored a kajillion runs and they went a combined 0-for-6.  What a bunch of ticker teases!

Ross Ohlendorf – 5 IP, 5 ER.  The only thing standing in the way of The Dorf is his lackluster pitching.

Carlos Gomez – 4-for-8 in the last two games with a steal.  He’s starting for about a week with Young out.  Those desperate for steals may be able to sneak in a few for the next couple of days.

Mark Teixeira – 2 HRs yesterday with 4 RBIs.  Almost June?  Yup, makes sense.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 1 ER.  The Marquis de Sad did it to the Braves royally.

Bobby Abreu – 0-for-2, zero home runs and 14 steals on the year.  The Angels ended up with the 2nd coming of Reggie Willits.

Kendry Morales – 2 home runs yesterday to bring his total to 8 on the year while batting .289.  I realize he’s been yawnstipating in his career, but he’s having a solid year and could end up with 25/100/.280.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 10th homer on the year.  Hey, cheap power, say hello to your mother for me.

Vladimir Guerrero – Coming back from his torn pectoral to be the Angels’ Designated Hacker.  You have to think the pectoral plays some role in swinging.  Wouldn’t bet that Stitch Tits is going to deliver much more than an empty .280 average.

John Lackey – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Aren’t you glad you held onto him for two months?  His owners probably wish he would’ve just pegged Ichiro to start the game (Ichiro’s owners probably wish that too).  I think this was just rust with Lackey, I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Brandon Morrow – Pitched the 6th and 7th, giving up 2 earned runs.  The way he’s going he’s going to be pitching the 3rd inning soon.

Randy Wolf – Is he Randy for a win or Hungry for a win?  Either way, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER should buy a brotha a win.  To give you a glimpse into my soul, I own Wolf in three leagues and I haven’t been disappointed at all.  56 1/3 IP, 46 Ks, 1.07 WHIP and a 2.72 ERA.  If someone was willing to give you Wolf for say the random rookie nookie you have (Zimmermann, Gamel, Parra), I’d do it.  I think it’s possible too, because Wolf gets no love.  In fact, I grabbed him off waivers in one of my ‘pert 15 team leagues.

Garrett Atkins – Getting benched by Hurdle.  Mrs. Garrett’s Atkins diet was more successful than Atkins this year.

Phil Coke – Got the save as Mo needed rest after pitching on Sat and Sun.  The last time Coke got credit for a Yankee save was when Steve Howe donned the pinstripes.

Joey Votto – Votto’s in the Scripps Clinic for an examination… E-X-A-M-I-N-A-T-I-O-N… Examination.

Here’s what I said last year about Mat Gamel and his comparison to Ryan Braun, “Ryan Braun, The Hebrew Hammer, hits for average, power and butchered plays at 3rd base.  Well, Gamel can slug with the best of them and plays 3rd like Jenny McCarthy in a celebrity softball game.  Not to mention, his name is almost Gimel, which is the third letter of the Hebrew alphabet.  The similarities are endless!”  And that’s me quoting me!  Wanna really blow your mind?  I wrote a Mat Gamel fantasy baseball outlook post back in December of last year.  Prescient ain’t just a word I can’t spell without Dictionary.com, it’s a state of mind!  So what can we expect of him, he’s better than Nolan Reimold.  Right now.  He can hit.  I could even see grabbing him in ten team leagues.  He could be The Difference Maker (which would be a great name for a professional wrestler).  The only thing holding Gamel back is he fields like he has two left feet — on the end of his arms.  If the Brewers dare to play him every day over their blahtoon of Hall and Counsell, you should play him too.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Ludwick – To the DL.  “Hello, Rasmus.”  “Hey, Duncan, you wanna play every day?” “Sure.”

Gerardo Parra – This one doesn’t walk people, he runs.  He replaced Krispie last night and might spell Byrnes on some occasions.  He’s a solid pickup for the speed deprived.  Parra’s upside is what Maybin should’ve done — 5 homers, 25 steals.  He shouldn’t be a liability on average.  Obviously, picking him up depends on your league, but he should be grabbed in all NL-Only leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 12 teams.

Nolan Reimold – Getting the call. Ceiling is 20 homers and a .280 average.  Let’s see, for right now:  Gamel, Reimold, Coghlan, Parra, LaPorta, in that order.  And all are better than Hochevar.

Bryan Augenstein – 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K.  Augenstein reminds me a bit of Slowey because of how few walks he issues.  Just remember how Hochevar stole your innocence.

Carl Crawford – Left with a bruised shoulder.  Should be okay. Get well soon, Carl!

Adam Jones – Left the game with a hamstring strain.  Might be headed to the DL.  Somebody totally harshed his buzz.

Jimmy Rollins – In Premiere’s “Spotted” section, it said that someone saw Rollins do something productive yesterday.

Alexei Ramirez – 3-for-3 yesterday.  Do this for another month and we’ll be even.

Ryan Zimmerman – Here comes the 0-for-30 game streak.  Kidding.  He’s going to be a top five 3rd baseman this year.  Recognize!

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks and the Win.  I’m done fighting it.  Doode turned a corner somewhere.  I’m not trading for him, but I can understand it.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  More in line with what I expect from him, but still a few more strikeouts.

Jo-Jo Reyes – 3 IP, 5 ER.  Tommy Hanson begins to pack his Hypercolor t-shirts and Zubaz pants.

Scott Richmond – 1 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Told ya he wasn’t long for your team.  I wouldn’t start him again in any league.  As they say on shuffleboard courts, he’s kaput.

Ty Wigginton – Hit his 2nd homer of the year yesterday.  Shot in the dark here, but Wigginton gets real hot for a couple of weeks at a time.  This might be one of those times.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 3 ER.  He’ll be about a 3.25 ERA pitcher this year.  That’s very good.

Joel Pineiro – 6 IP, 5 ER.  See what I said about Richmond then multiply it by three.

Matt Palmer – Complete game, 4 ER to move to 4-0 on the year.  Before you get crazy with yourself, he’s a thirty-year-old rookie and he’s not Dennis Quaid.

Kip Wells – 2nd save and only one run allowed.  Kip walking into the clubhouse, “What can’t Kip Wells do?!  What!?”  Heckler, “Pitch effectively for any extended period of time.”  Kip lowers his head and sighs.

Ross Ohlendorf – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Talk to the Dorf!

Juan Pierre - I love guys who steal bases up six runs.  You go, Juan!  Get you some, gluttony!

Shairon Martis – 7 IP, 1 ER and his fifth win (the Nats only have 11!)  With a first name like an Israeli prime minister or an Osbourne, you want to write off Shairon Martis, but he’s not pitching above his head right now outside from Wins.  I’d grab him in mixed leagues as a 5th starter.

Ryan Theriot – 2 HRs to bring his total of what the effs to 5.  Guess hiring Jose Canseco as his new strength and conditioning coach wasn’t such a bad idea.

Geovany Soto – Finally.

Chris Young – 4 IP, 6 ER.  Trouble with fly ball pitchers if the wind’s blowing out.

Adrian Gonzalez – 2 HRs and one call to his agent, “Can you get me out of Petco?”

Rickie Weeks – Hit his 9th homer yesterday and is hitting .286.    At some point, he’ll chuck in 15 to 20 steals too.  This could be the year where owners finally see what he can do when he stays healthy.

Ricky Nolasco – 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  At this point, he’s probably ending up on waivers in some leagues, but if he’s still owned, I’d fleece his owners as they struggle to sit down.

Chris Coghlan – Member that month long leash Maybin had to hang himself?  Yeah, Coghlan’s now getting it. Hopefully, he can make a Windsor knot from the noose and call it a tie.

Dontrelle Willis – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  There’s nothing that a big Miguel Olivo hug can’t fix.

Brandon Lyon – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  You think when Leyland sent him out there for the 3rd inning he just wanted the game to be over so he could go have a smoke?

Garrett Atkins – 0-for-4, batting .195 on the year.  Clint Barmes is out slugging him .415 to .319.   In case anyone’s confused, Barmes is not having a good season.

Troy Percival – 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Wasn’t a save situation, but it was still a pounding.  I picked up Wheeler in a league, just in case.

Josh Hamilton – Two games from the DL.  Two homers.  As his street value rises.

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday.  I’ve owned him in one league all year.  17/7/31/.271 — Not bad, right?  Yeah, those are Prince Fielder’s numbers.  Branyan’s 20/8/16/.286/1 — And I didn’t draft Branyan in the 2nd round.  Cust kayin’.