Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Rangers bullpen costing C.J. Wilson the win is like ten thousand spoons and all you need is a knife.  Maybe Frank-Frank didn’t like Wilson cutting into his save chances last year.  I was skeptical of Wilson moving into the rotation.  I said to myself, “Grey, you’re handsome.”  Wait, wrong conversation.  I remember it now.  “Grey, why not start Neftali Feliz?  Why they fussing with C.J. Wilson?”  I didn’t have an answer and wasn’t sure why I was using the word “fussing.”  It’s like when you get mail order bride emails.  Wouldn’t they be email order brides?  Some questions have no answers.  But I’m ready to hush that fuss.  C.J. Wilson has always rocked an impressive K-rate as a reliever and, if he can maintain that and his walks, he could be a huge surprise in the rotation.  Am I a fan of Arlington for pitchers in the summer?  Nope, but let’s get there first, shall we?  Wilson could give you a K/IP and a solid just under-4 ERA.  I’m buying!  Oh, and welcome to all the Googlers of “I’m buying” + “mail order bride.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Taylor Teagarden – 0-for-4, but enough about the negatives.  Saltymochachino is out for at least 15 days with back stiffness and it’s not like Salty was doing anything anyway.  Ron Washington said Salty was only the starting catcher because “his name goes to eleven.”

Frank Francisco – 2/3 IP, 3 ER as he blew the save.  As a commenter said yesterday, Frank-Frank fail-fail.

Julio Borbon – 0-for-the-season.  Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Your breath is bated.

Ian Kinsler – Was given another cortisone shot in his ankle.  Now his ankle really won’t have any wrinkles!  Wait, what?  Yeah, I’m not a doctor, but this will delay Kinsler return a few more days.  I’m guessing it’ll be at least two more weeks.

Aaron Hill – Sat out due to hamstring tightness.  He only missed 4 games last year.  His numbers last year had a lot to do with him accumulating many² at-bats.  It’s a situation that bears watching, Timothy Treadwell.

Travis Snider – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  With the way he’s going, he’ll be in the minors within two weeks.

Ronnie Belliard – 3-for-5 with a Double, Triple and Homer as he hit for The Hungry Man Cycle.

Chad Billingsley – 5 1/3 IP, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If I wanted to emphasize the baserunners, I would’ve listed them last.  Instead, I chose to put the strikeouts last.  I’m a big fan of Bills.  A Billiever, if you will.  However, this was an ugly start.

Paul Maholm – 6 IP, 4 ER.  For those who think they’re outsmarting everyone by finding value on the Pirates staff, this start was against the Dodgers B lineup.

Hayden Penn – Why is the girl from Heroes pitching for the Pirates?

Orlando Hudson – Left the game with what appeared to be a neck injury.  Could mean Nick Punto at 2nd on Friday.  Shandler must be happy.

Jim Thome – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  Started at DH for the 2nd straight game.  Yeah, that’s not good for Delmon Young’s playing time.

Kevin Slowey – My almost preseason Cy Young pick threw five and a third and allowed only one run.  Have much love for Slowey this year.

Carlos Beltran – Set to begin a running program.  A source told ESPN, “He’s a professional.  His body will dictate what to do.  He’s progressing great.”  Here’s what I hear, “Trite statement.  Statement that can be misconstrued to mean more than it does.  Lie.”  Then Beltran said, “Right now I don’t want to talk about when I’m going to come back if I haven’t run yet.  When I run, then that can give me an idea of where I am. Right now it’s hard for me to say.”  Here’s what I hear, “I’m not lying for the Mets.  They can suck it.”

Luis Castillo – Will sit Friday with a calf injury.  Whatever, Reyes returns Saturday!

Jeff Niemann – Was hit by a line drive in the arm, not the knee, man.  Should make his next start as he’s listed as Day-to-Day.  Where is this master Day-to-Day list?  Is there some guy in Barbados sipping coladas keeping this list?  I’d like to know.

Jon Niese – 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks as he battled Nate Robertson (5 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks).  Reminded me of the epic battles between Nies and Heather B.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 8 baserunners, 1 K as sabermetricians shake their fist at his BABIP.

Marlon Byrd – Another homer yesterday.  All he does is hit homers!  No, really, his only two hits this year are homers.

Tyler Colvin – HR yesterday.  He’s an older rookie prospect who never played Triple-A.  He’s pretty deep on the depth charts and profiles as a 4th outfielder.  Has some pop in his bat, but no starting job unless The Mummy asks for his knees back from Soriano.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left with a boo-boo.  Boo boo, indeed.  He’ll be out for 2-3 days with a strained oblique.  Chipper definitely keeps strained obliques in business.

Don Kelly – Started at 3B for Detroit today.  For some reason, he makes me think of Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Ian Stewart.  Then again, sometimes I have a hard time seeing L’s.

Miguel Cabrera – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and a homer.  Another sober day in the office for Miggy, but what’s interesting is how he’s tried to steal twice already.  If he can somehow swipe 10 bags (it’s a stretch), he could be the most valuable fantasy hitter this year.

Billy Butler -1-for-2 with his third Warning Track Fly of the year.  Could lead the league in WTF’s.

Daric Barton – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs.  For what it’s Wuertz, Barton reminds me of Gaby Sanchez.  It’s neither a compliment nor an insult.

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday.  Take that, Achilles!  Pee-ay is out with an injury and Reimold’s making the most of his time.  If the Orioles come to their senses, Reimold really should be the starter.  If he is, all bets are off.  Or maybe that’s on.  Either way, he should be owned.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 BBs.  This kinda blew my mind.  When I was doing the Buy/Sell that’s coming later today, I was looking at the percentage owned at the major sites.  Matusz is owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.  I think Matusz is talented, so don’t take this wrong way, but he will roofie you.  98% seems way too confident and tells me people could be overrating him for this year.  But the mind blowing part is coming in the next blurb, follow me…

Justin Masterson – 5 IP, 6 baserunners, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Here’s what I said in my rankings, “He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Oh, and Masterson’s owned in 2% of ESPN leagues.  That’s two.  Wha…?

Kerry Wood – Will throw from 110 feet on Friday.  So he’s now pitching from 2nd base?  Oh-kay.  Still not returning until the end of May.

Brad Penny – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  Put a straitjacket on a pitcher and throw him in a milk can and Dave Duncan will get him out.  Don’t try and figure it out, just know that Penny can now be a reliable 4th fantasy starter.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Maybe he won’t wait until the 2nd half this year to be good, but I’m not risking it.  Also, Arroyo was hit by a comebacker and might miss his next start.  Too bad, so sad.

Mike Sweeney – 1-for-4, 1 RBI.  Dave Eggers’ favorite hitter got his first start as Seattle’s DH.  He’s only DH-eligible in most leagues now and probably won’t have 1B-eligibility until end of May at the earliest.  So unless you’re in a 14-team AL-only league, he’s not going to give you any value.

Doug Fister – 4 IP, 2 ER.  Has there ever been a pitcher/catcher combo that warranted the ‘battery’ name more than today’s Mariner tandem of Fister-Moore?

Ichiro Suzuki/Franklin Gutierrez/Milton Bradley – It’s like having two Gold Glove outfielders and one Golden Glove outfielder.

The other drafternoon I took part in my Fantasy Razzball draft where the object is to field the worst team possible.  This team isn’t just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  My co-conspirators in this were:

Chet G., Fantasy Football
Andy B., Yahoo! Roto Arcade
Tim W., Buccofans.com
T Man, Middle Aged Sports Guys
Jonathan H., The Hardball Times
Paul R., My Sports Rumors
Collin, FantasyPros911
Ryan D., Oh What, Another Baseball Blog
Andrew C., Yanks Go Yard

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Round 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  His K rate has been going up.  You want more?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  Could Joyce DeWitt’s son steal time?  I suppose, but Belliard’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

Round 2 – It was between Lousy Castillo and Drew Stubbs, who may not even break camp with the Reds he’s so godawful.  Stubbs’s projected 267 strikeouts this year had me throw caution into the wind and go with the upside pick.  Yes, in this league, your 2nd pick may not break camp with the club. It’s not easy being bad at your chosen vocation.  Ask any non-Greinke Royals pitcher.

Round 3 – Tommy Manzella, while renown for his lasagna, is not, how do I put this, good at baseball.  If there were a category on Jeopardy! titled, “Players You’d Confuse With Adam Everett,” Manzella would be the question for every answer.  Manzella’s projections:  450+ ABs, .240 average and 5 homers.  Now that’s Italian!

Round 4 – Actually, I really like Scott Podsednik this year in fantasy… Sorry, I meant to say, I really like Scott Podsednik’s wife.  Crucial detail.

Round 5 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Bannister.

Round 6 – Went with the Marquis de Shat here because we have a max innings limit and I really wanted to get a few pitchers that could actually stay in the rotation all year.  Figuring quality non-quality over quantity non-quality, if that makes sense.

Round 7 – A two home run hitter calling Petco home? Was surprised to see Sparky Anklebiter make it all the way to the 7th round.  Middle infield is a deep position in this, but I couldn’t turn down this kind of value.

Round 8 – Brett Gardner is the first pick that I could see definitely owning in regular leagues.  One of the few picks on this team with downside.  If he can avoid the top of the order, he should be fine.

Round 9 – Considering Michael Bourn went in the first round, Nyjer Morgan‘s a steal here.  Speaking of which, steals aren’t counted in this league, if anyone was not familiar with the points structure.  BTW, the nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

Round 10 – Tommy Hunter.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

Round 11 – Martin Prado isn’t a great pick at 2nd base… But he’s not playing there for me.  He is a solid guy for the Not Corner.

Round 12 – I expect Porcello’s ERA to mushroom. (<–almost pun!)

Round 13 – Scott Olsen — You know those Army commercials you see that promise college and all that?  I imagine in the next 15 years there will be commercials for kids who throw lefty.  Can’t afford college and you throw lefty?  Play in the Majors!

Round 14 – Daniel Murphy locked up my corner infidel spot.  Not bad value for a guy who received fielding tips from Keith Hernandez and hitting tips from Ron Darling.

Round 15 – Someone took Yorvit Torrealba in Round 14 and that reminded me I better grab his blahtoon mate, Nick Hundley.

Round 16 – In regular leagues, I wouldn’t want to fill my utility spot so early, but I knew I wanted a top tier catcher, so I grabbed Gregg Zaun, then immediately began thinking about how he really shouldn’t be playing in the major leagues anymore.  Someone hire him to coach, please.

Rounds 17/18 – Dave Bush and Brett Myers because Home Runs Allowed is a category.  Hopefully, Myers won’t disrupt my harmonious clubhouse.

Round 19 – Ladies and gentlemen, super futility man – Eugenio Velez.

Rounds 20/21/22 – Ronny Cedeno, Chris Getz and Jeff Keppinger.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.

Round 23 – Billy Buckner?  *shrugs*  I don’t know, but he’s supposed to be terrifically awful.

Round 24 – Garrett Mock – Mock indeed.

Round 25 – Grabbed Russell Martin to stash on my DL, though I’m sure at least one of my pitchers will end up on the Disgraceful List by May.

Round 26 – Every time you hear Willie Harris‘s name don’t you think of Michael Dukakis?  Yeah, maybe it’s me.

Round 27 – Jake Westbrook is actually the Indians number one pitcher.  Chief Wahoo should change his name to Chief WTF?

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Oh, they’re not just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On this drafternoon, I picked a team that is near-perfectly awful.  They simultaneously suck and blow.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  I took part in a fantasy baseball draft this past Saturday to pick the worst fantasy baseball team.  And I think I done did it.  My co-conspirators in this were:

Roto Rob
Tirico Suave
Drunk Jays Fans
Fantasy Baseball Cafe
Fantasy Pros 911
Hire Jim Essian
Sharapova’s Thigh
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Beyond the Box Score

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Random thoughts about various rounds of the draft:

ROUND 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  Okay, he’s on the Nats.  Should I go on?  His K rate has been going up.  More?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  All right, one more thing.  He’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

ROUND 2 – It was between Chone Fuggums and Lousy Castillo.  Had to go with the more shallow position of 3rd base.  Fuggums will probably get 500 ABs, and, I don’t know, 4 HRs.  Not a bad guy for the Not Corner.

ROUND 3 – And Lousy Castillo makes it back to me.  Projected for 487 ABs and… Wait for it… Here it comes… Hold on, I have an itch… All right, here it is… Zero home runs!  WTF?  How is that even possible?

ROUND 4 – Okay, I’ve waited on crappy outfielders long enough.  Skip Suckmaker, you’re mine!  Thank you, LaRussa.

ROUND 5 – I’m actually worried about my Runs at this point.  No, I didn’t just drink some Mexican water.  So to clog up my tailpipe, I select Erick Aybar.  He’s projected for less than 50 Runs and over 400 ABs.  Later I will add his Brother in Razzball Charms.

ROUND 6 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Schneider.

ROUND 7 – And because no one knows when anyone is drafting a player, you (or at least I) want to fill up your (my) Utility spot with another catcher that I know will rack up the ABs and little else — Yadier Molina.

ROUND 8 – Super futility man, Willie Aybar.

ROUND 9 – Finally, I take a pitcher.  Not just any pitcher, but a pitcher worthy of a Razzball Spotlight, Gorilla Ponson.

ROUND 10 – B. Giles because anyone who’s ever played any level of baseball can put up his stats.

ROUND 11 – Travis Ishikawa.  Everyone loses a job on your fantasy Razzball team, so backups are very helpful and Giants hitters are even more so.  Worst case scenario, Ishikawa and Belliard will make a nice blahtoon.

ROUND 12 – Vicente Padilla, probably my riskiest pick so far.  He can’t make it out of May with a job, can he?

ROUND 13 – Endy Chavez.  Nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

ROUND  14 – DeWayne Wise. Ozzie’s crazy enough to give him 500 ABs, but he’s not crazy enough to lead him off, is he?

ROUND 15 – Having played this league last year, I knew anyone I took on the pitching side would lose their job sooner than later if I was playing right.  With his 150th pick, Grey selects Danys Baez, a leading candidate for an Orioles rotation spot.  You heard me right, non-Orioles fans.  Baez might be an Orioles starter this year.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

ROUND 16 – Mark Buerhle.  Tried to balance all of the starters I was going to lose with a guy who can give me 200 lame innings.  There’s a chance I bench him until he gets cold.

ROUND 17 – Matt Harrison.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

ROUND 18 – Jamie Moyer.  Another innings eater-slash-guy you can’t believe is still a major league starter.

ROUND 19/20 – Chris Dickerson and Gerald Laird.   Dickerson’s a K machine, but he’s the only guy on my entire team with any downside.  I’ll be honest.  I might be patroling the waiver wire for a Dickerson replacement.  As for Laird, it’s really hard to resist taking an extra catcher.  They’re all so good!

ROUND 23/24 – Jesse Litsch and Mike Pelfrey.  Some of you may be sad to see these guys here because you have them on your regular fantasy teams.  Let’s just say, I’m hoping these guys stay healthy because they could be in for an awfully wonderful year.

ROUND 25/26/27 – Kevin Frandsen and Cristian Guzman and Gabe Gross.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.  Razztastic!

Dallas McPherson reminds a lot of myself, if I hit 42 home runs in my last year of Triple-A, or if I played in the minors or any sort of organized sport.  I was a city checkers champion in 6th grade. Cust kayin’.  Speaking of striking out, Dallas McPherson just struckout. And again. Whenever you’re reading this, there’s a good chance McPherson is striking out somewhere.  He’s like Mr. Furley in the Regal Beagle.  McPherson struckout 168 times last year in the minors.  That’s a lot.  I don’t know who holds the record for most strikeouts in a minor league season, because I’m too lazy to Google it, but I have to think McPherson challenged that record last year.  Remember they play less games in the minors.  168 is a lot of strikeouts.  A real lot.  He only played in 127 games.  He also walked a lot.  They call these players, Three True Outcome players, because there’s three possible outcomes when they come to bat, strikeout, walk or home run.  Okay, Alice Cooper, school’s out!  So why is Dallas McPherson is a fantasy sleeper for 2009?

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.