Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the conundrum of fantasy baseball that leads us to the battle for the final rotation spot.  These guys either have one of two options: drive around on a bus with the Savannah Sand Gnats, or float for awhile (swimming is an entirely different sport). These guys aren’t necessarily the sexiest group of fantasy options, but if your league is deep or shallow, streaming is streaming.  I do it a lot in limitless inning leagues.  It’s not cheating — it’s taking advantage of other owners who don’t do it.  Picking your “spot” starts is always hit or miss, best way to tell if you should stream is to read the betting line — I can’t make this stuff up.  People who stand to win/lose money know what is going on here.  So here we go:  the 5th starter battles for 2010 fantasy baseball at the midpoint of Spring Training:

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

The duality of man:

It’s all Peaches and Herb when you can get the best out of both worlds. Well, fantasy baseball wise that’s either “Martin Prado” good or “Jerry Hairston” awkward. For fantasy pitching, a guy doesn’t necessarily become more draftable based on dual position, but I’m here to “learn” you something about spot starting from the RP spot. I once heard that relief pitching is an art form. It looks easy, but hey, not everyone can paint. Hell, I color way outside the lines.  Here is a list of strapping young lads that can contribute from the depths of your roster by chucking the ball and having both SP/RP eligibility:

Robinson Tejada – ( 29 relief appearances/ 6 sp)
No joke — I heard his dad’s name is actually Miguel Cano. Here is a guy that intrigues me to no end. High K rate, low HR’s allowed (4 in 73 innings). KC may stretch him out to be a number 5. Beware of a high walk rate and a big jump in innings but he can contribute. Proj: 8 wins 4.05 era 125 K’s in 120 innings

Brett Myers – ( 8rp/10 sp)
Huge risk/reward with his change of battery mates…wink. Will only be 30 by year’s end, playing for a multi-yr deal, definite rotation spot. To me, he has all the opportunity sitting in front of him. Decent in-season fill or late round flyer. Proj: 10 wins 4.2 era 145 K’s

Kenshin Kawakami – ( 7 rp/ 25 sp)
Was cruising along and then Hudson went all Moscow and came back from the DL. Should enter the spring with a rotation spot. Otherwise, it’s to the pen to form the dynamic Asian dance team, Ken-N-Tak. Not a huge K potential and low ERA promise. You could do worse for a 5th starter. Proj: 10 wins 3.89 era 125 K’s

Justin Masterson – (26rp/16sp)
Former Sox spec goes to the head of the class — Too bad it’s in remedial English. Huge K potential (think a K/inning), reminds me a lot of a RH Jonathan Sanchez. Legitimate stuff — has potential to be a future number 3. Innings shouldn’t be a worry. Will have every chance to fail for a 90 loss team. End of draft sleeper. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Clayton Richard – ( 12rp/ 26sp)
He is another top spec that goes into the fire of a losing organization. Great potential to pitch for a budding rotation. Not a huge K guy and he will walk his share. Plays in an ERA friendly environment and has been getting a pretty good ride in the pre-draft hype machine. I‘d buy that for a dollar. Great match up guy for home starts. Proj: 7 wins 3.90 era 100 K’s

Aaron Laffey – ( 6rp/13sp)
Personally, I love this guy. Same b-day as me and same last name as the navy ship my grandfather was on in WWII. But anywho — to me, he is the “Clayton Richard” of the AL and has a chance to shine… but for a bad team. Not a huge peripheral help guy, walks a ton, no K’s. Could be a sneaky source of wins for Cleveland. Just needs to stop walking the ballpark. Proj: 9 wins 4.30 era 110 k’s

Derek Holland – (12rp/21sp)
Texas has a potent offense: this, we know. Here is a guy to do the opposite of Richard: start on the road. Has a great arsenal of pitches, got worn down by year’s end. ERA should drop from above 6 (or I would hope). Decent K/9 and needs to work on his third pitch. If the team is away, Holland should play. Proj: 9 wins 4.35 era 125 K’s

Brian Duensing – ( 15rp/9sp)
Great spot guy late last year. If he misses a rotation spot, he joins (in my opinion) the best bullpen in baseball. Not a huge K threat, but misses bats. A long relief candidate who can snipe a few victories. Expect great peripherals, low ERA. Proj: 9 wins 3.75 era 90 K’s

Brandon Morrow – ( 16rp/10sp)
Holy potential! I have been waiting for him for 2 years to do something. He now gets a chance in a very young rotation in Toronto, albeit in the toughest division in baseball. Health and stamina are an issue (diabetic). Has huge K and low ERA potential. A must grab for last round fodder or for “cause I told you so” bragging rights. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Francisco Liriano – (5rp/24sp)
This guy was awful a year removed from TJ surgery and I think he actually pitched with Tommy John’s arm. Another year may do him good. He will struggle with command and is spotty when runners are on base. Consistent arm angle a must. I’m avoiding him at all costs unless I can get him late — like on the waiver wire after the draft. Buyer beware but great K potential from the once most hyped SP since Tim Leary. Projections found at Grey’s Liriano Sleeper post.

Others to think about that qualify: Jamie Moyer(5rp/25sp), Bobby Parnell(60rp/8sp), Tom Gorzellany(15rp/7sp)

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September.  If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August.  Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners.  It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll.  So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is.  I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla).  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.