Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley. It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others. For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last year, I did an analysis searching for indicators that can help predict which pitchers are most likely to miss extended time due to injuries or have a huge dropoff in performance. I followed that up with a post where I chose 20 Risky Pitchers for 2009 with the ambitious goal that 12 of the 20 would either fail to throw 2,000 pitches in the next season or see a FIP increase of 0.50 or higher (note: for the analysis, I’m switching to xFIP which is a new addition to FanGraphs and adjusts fly balls to the league average HR/FB rate).Please, blog, may I have some more?
Tom Verducci of SI has posted his annual ‘Year After Effect’ post which poses that young pitchers who threw more than 30 innings last year than they had the year before as injury risks. I had reference this theory as part of my risky pitchers tests. For those who haven’t read this and are too lazy to click on it now…..or even now….I did find that significant pitching volume increases year-over-year does seem to have a carry-0ver effect but pitchers who threw high percentages of breaking pitches were more vulnerable (and a combination even worse).Please, blog, may I have some more?