Fantasy Baseball Advice

Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley.  It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others.  For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?

With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2^nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball.  (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.)  For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.”  So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ‘2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one….

#1 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  32%

Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks.  His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)

So why is he #1 on the list?  He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard.  Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders.  Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.

If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season.  Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.

#2 – Ross Ohlendorf

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  24%

Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep  leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009.  Translation:  Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.

#3 – Kevin Correia

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  30%

Petco : ERA is equal to:

a)      Baco : Salad

b)      Balco : HRs

c)      Maaco: Brakes

d)     Yoko : Oh no Beatles!

e)     All of the above

The correct answer is E.  Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre.   12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43^rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.

The problem?  While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors.  Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls).  You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common?  We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….

#4– Joba Chamberlain

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  22%

I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.

As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway.   But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.

Pass on him as a starter.  Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.

#5 – Randy Wells

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  27%

Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009.  Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.

While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.

But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average).  He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).

#6 – Adam Wainwright

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches:  No.
Slider %: 19%

#7 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero.  Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?

Case in point:  Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year.  His 3,614 pitchers were 3^rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632).  Sabathia was #4 at 3,587.  Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury).   He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors.  Who was 2^nd in the most breaking pitchers?  None other than Chris Carpenter.

There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners).   For Wainwright, he had the 5^th most effective slider and 2^nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8^th and 17^th respectively).  His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5^th most effective).

Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers?  Tough to say.  But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

#8 – Jason Hammel

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  14.9%

The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP.  In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).

On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches.  And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider).  So he’s not too much ’safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.

#9 – Jeff Niemann

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high.  Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel.  He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP).  While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid.  And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.

His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.

This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals.  How’s that for double talk (talk)?    But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him.  I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.

#10 – Gavin Floyd

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The first returnee from last year!  Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.

And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).

I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd:  1) You win Round #1 and  2) Good luck winning Round #2.

I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.

#11 – Ryan Dempster

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  34%

The second returnee from last year!  Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief.  Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008.  That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.

I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%).  It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).

So be careful before you Dempster dive….

#12 – Jorge de la Rosa

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  15%

George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky.  De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.

While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much.  He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.

He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.

But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only.  If he comes cheap, grab him.  Otherwise, pass.

#13 – Max Scherzer

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.

Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.

But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher.  Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year.  Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.

I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.

#14 – Ricky Romero

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  13%

Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13).  A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).

My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards.  Follow that instinct.

#15 – Joel Pineiro

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  12%

Talk about an efficient pitcher.  Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170).  No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!

So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency.  And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling.  In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.

I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him.  If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.

#16 – Edwin Jackson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce.  Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.

To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious.  To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.  In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).

Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders.  His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1.  Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.

The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.

#17 – Scott Feldman

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  2%

Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins.  17 wins?!  AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!

Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates.  So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.

The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd.  44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve.  He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else.  That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9).  The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%).  Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH.  Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH.  Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness.  Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.

Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.

#18 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever.  How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP?  You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%).  If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.

All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me.  He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%).  Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year.   But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.

#19 – Tommy Hanson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  24%

Mmm…flop?  No, definitely no.  Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher.  I still want him on at least one of my teams.  The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.

The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s.  24% sliders and another 14% curveballs.  He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.

I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.

#20 – Josh Johnson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion).  He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH).  He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.

But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be.  I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood.  Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.

Last year, I did an analysis searching for indicators that can help predict which pitchers are most likely to miss extended time due to injuries or have a huge dropoff in performance.  I followed that up with a post where I chose 20 Risky Pitchers for 2009 with the ambitious goal that 12 of the 20 would either fail to throw 2,000 pitches in the next season or see a FIP increase of 0.50 or higher (note: for the analysis, I’m switching to xFIP which is a new addition to FanGraphs and adjusts fly balls to the league average HR/FB rate).

The final (and humbling) results are below.  8 of the 20  pitchers or 40% of the pitchers dropped below 2,000 pitches or had an xFIP increase above 0.50.  40% sounds pretty good until you realize that about 40% of all pitchers coming off 2,700+ pitch seasons fall into one of these two categories the next year.  Basically, my predictions were as successful as picking the names out of Kevin Mench’s ginormous hat.

	Pitches	xFIP Change (0.50+)	Dropoff
Armando Galarraga	2453	0.53	YES
Ricky Nolasco	3035	-0.47	NO
Gavin Floyd	2981	-0.87	NO
Brett Myers	1145	—–	YES
Ryan Dempster	3159	0.07	NO
Andy Sonnanstine	1713	0.49	YES
Jonathan Sanchez	2849	0.05	NO
Todd Wellemeyer	2117	0.72	YES
Dana Eveland	839	—–	YES
Johnny Cueto	2904	0.2	NO
Zack Greinke	3477	-0.61	NO
Ervin Santana	2300	1.09	YES
Jesse Litsch	158	0	YES
Jon Lester	3404	-0.95	NO
Mike Pelfrey	3158	0.03	NO
A.J. Burnett	3462	0.74	YES
Matt Garza	3421	-0.27	NO
Javier Vazquez	3315	-1.03	NO
Ted Lilly	2671	-0.16	NO
Scott Baker	3258	0.08	NO

Now I could try and make it look better by changing the criteria and saying my warnings of Nolasco saved teams of a 5.00+ ERA or a disappointing first half from Scott Baker but that wouldn’t be right.  For every Nolasco (1.50+ ERA jump but a negative xFIP), there’s an AJ Burnett whose ERA was flat while his xFIP went over the 0.50 mark (note:  you’d think this could be explained by the move to the new Yankee Stadium but his ERA was actually a run better at home vs away – 3.51 vs. 4.59).  To add insult to injury, two of the selections (Vazquez and Greinke) turned out to be in the top 5 of our ‘best draft values‘ according to our Point Shares and their average ADP.

So f0r this post, a wiser and humbler Rudy Gamble will take another stab at the analysis.  A future post will lay out 20 more predictions for 2010.

First off, there are a few aspects of the analysis that I think can be improved:

1. Throw out any pitchers that met the 2,700 pitch marker but put up high numbers (5.00+ xFIP).   This takes out a few players like Daniel Cabrera who aren’t going to be drafted anyway.
2. Throw out any pitchers older than 37.  The reasons why a Randy Johnson or John Smoltz missed time in 2009 is most likely different than the factors that would affect a 27-year old.
3. Assume international pitchers like Dice-K and Kuroda had a similar pitch count the prior year (rather than credit them with a huge pitch increase).
4. Increase the xFIP change from 0.50 to 0.75 to reduce the number of seasons that wouldn’t be viewed as a fantasy disappointment (e.g., CC Sabathia saw a 0.72 increase in FIP in 2009 but his 19-8/3.37/1.15 season was as good as any fantasy owner could rightfully expect).

With this revised ‘falloff’ definition, the amount of seasons that qualify move from ~40% to 27% (between 26-27% for 2005, 2008, and 2009 with an odd jump in 2006 to 36% and decline in 2007 to 16%).  This represents 94 of 349 seasons between 2005-2009 with 72 fell below 2,000 pitches and another 22 had a +0.75 FIP increase.

The criteria we established last year after various tests were:

1. 27+% of Sliders and Curveballs the year prior
2. 700+ pitch increase the year prior (vs. the year before that) – inspired by the ‘Verducci Effect’
3. Previous year was the first year above the 2,700+ MLB pitch threshold in 2008

Let’s revisit these assumptions based on some questions I had after the first analysis:

Revisiting pitch types

After my initial analysis, I exchanged a few messages with Disabled List Informer (an AWESOME resource for understanding player injuries) who ranked sliders as a greater injury risk than curveballs.  I tested all pitch types again by comparing the averages of 2004-2008 seasons preceding dropoff vs. non-dropoff seasons in 2005-2009.

It appears sliders are negative indicators (11% more thrown in seasons preceding dropoff seasons) but there is no indication that curveballs are.  Cut fastballs and split-finger fastballs are too small a percentage of pitches to take away any significance from this analysis.  I did a subsequent analysis isolating pitchers who threw 10+% cut fastballs and split-finger fastballs.  There were 42 seasons of 10+% cut fastballs which were succeeded by 12 falloff seasons.  The 28% falloff rate almost exactly matches the average rate of 27% so we’ll rule out cut fastballs as a variable.  Only 19 pitching seasons saw 10+% split finger fastballs (Roger Craig – the pitching coach not the 49er – sheds a tear) and 7 of those seasons were Dan Haren or Kelvim Escobar so I’m not going to make any conclusions on that given lack of sample.

Fastballs and changeups appear to be mild positive indicators.  When I isolated pitchers who threw a below average % of Fastballs and Changeups, the results were promising for indicating potential falloff candidates.  But after taking out those with a high % of sliders, the remaining seasons came in about average.  So we’ll be taking curveballs out of the equation and focusing on sliders thrown as an indicator.

Below are the dropoff rates of those throwing sliders as 15, 20, and 25+ of their pitches indexed against the overall rate (27%).  We can see that the higher the slider rate, the higher the percentage of dropoffs.  That said, even at 25+%, the dropoff rate is only 35% (which is 32% more likely than a random pitcher).  The fact that CC Sabathia threw 25% sliders in 2009 doesn’t really give me any pause in drafting him.

Season Prior (2700+ pitches + xFIP < 5.00)	Seasons	Dropoff Seasons	% of Dropoff	Index
Slider > 15%	158	47	29.7%	110
Slider > 20%	79	25	31.6%	117
Slider > 25%	31	11	35.5%	132

Perhaps a stronger argument for not using this one statistic alone is isolating pitchers who threw 15% sliders but they didn’t have a 700+ pitch spike in the previous year nor was it their first year > 2,500+ pitches (loosening this up vs the previous 2,700+ pitches).  Of the 106 seasons that fit that description, 28 had falloffs or 26.4%.  So basically an experienced slider pitcher is no more likely to have a dropoff than the average pitcher.  In retrospect, this line of thinking would’ve taken Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, and Scott Baker off last year’s dropoff list.

Player Age

I was curious to see if my initial heralding of a ‘700+ pitch increase’ and ‘first year above 2,700+ MLB pitches’ were just hiding an age-related skew – e.g., younger pitchers are more likely to drop off than players in their prime years.

Below is a distribution of all pitching seasons by age indexed against the 27% rate seen across all 21-37 year old pitchers.  As you can see, there is no rhyme or reason here.  I’m not reading into that dip at 27 given that 26 and 28 overindex.  So scrap player age as a consideration.

Age	Total Seasons	Dropoff Seasons	% Dropoff Seasons	Index
21	1	0	0.0%	0
22	4	0	0.0%	0
23	9	3	33.3%	124
24	18	4	22.2%	83
25	30	9	30.0%	111
26	36	11	30.6%	113
27	39	6	15.4%	57
28	41	13	31.7%	118
29	39	11	28.2%	105
30	34	10	29.4%	109
31	29	8	27.6%	102
32	26	8	30.8%	114
33	16	4	25.0%	93
34	14	5	35.7%	133
35	4	0	0.0%	0
36	6	2	33.3%	124
37	3	0	0.0%	0

700+ Pitch Spike

This criterion was inspired by the ‘Verducci Effect’ which theorizes that pitchers with a 40+ IP increase year over year is more at risk for injuries the next year.  His theory seemed to have a level of success over the years although last year’s predictions – based on my dropoff criteria – were subpar.  The only big dropoff on the list was from the worst (or 2nd worst) pitcher on the list (Eveland) and John Danks and Jonathan Niese are marginal cases.

‘Verducci Effect’ Choice	2009 Pitches	xFIP Change	Dropoff
Jon Lester	3404	-0.95	NO
Cole Hamels	3116	0.06	NO
Tim Lincecum	3439	-0.3	NO
Chad Billingsley	3250	0.42	NO
Clayton Kershaw	3030	-0.06	NO
Dana Eveland	839	0.65	YES
Mike Pelfrey	3158	0.03	NO
John Danks	3210	0.57	YES
Jair Jurrjens	3305	0.38	NO
Jonathan Niese	1906 (estimate MLB + minors)	NA	YES

(Quick Update:  SI.com just posted Tom Verducci’s ‘Verducci Effect‘ 10 for ‘10 today.  I really like his work on SI and MLB.  But my first allegiance is with Fantasy Baseballers so I need to point out that his success metric of ‘year without injury and with a lower ERA’ is a rather low bar.  How low?  Of the 349 pitcher seasons of 21-37 years olds following years of 2700+ pitches and < 5.00 FIP in 2004-2008 (translation:  generally healthy years with a modicum of success), a full 60% of them saw a decrease in their FIP the next year.  I’m assuming ERA follows the same path.  Of the remaining 137 pitcher seasons, another 58 saw < 3,000 pitches thrown (a liberal proxy for no injuries as a healthy seasons is about 32 starts/3200+ pitches).  Net result:  23% (79 of 349) of all pitchers might ’succeed’ based on his criteria.  So his 4-for-34 (12%) stat – which sounds amazing -  is a little bit like taking credit for predicting a Jersey Shore character might do something embarrassing in an episode.)

Based on my new dropoff criteria, 38 of 112 (33.9%) seasons following a 700+ pitch spike saw a dropoff.  This is a 126 index which is better than the 15% slider threshold.  BUT if we isolate this criteria from the others (< 15% sliders and not the first year with 2,500+ pitches), it results in 6 of 22 seasons or 27%.  So this factor alone isn’t a good predictor.  Note that none of the 20 risky pitchers I picked last year fit only the 700+ pitch spike criteria.

(Note:  It is possible this could be improved by factoring in minor league pitches as well.  It’s a big pain to cobble together the stats for all the minor league divisions though and only innings pitched are available.)

First Season Above 2,500+ Pitches (in MLB)

This is the rarest of the three criteria with 78 seasons (or 22% of all seasons) and 34.6% of the instances (27) followed with a dropoff season.  This 129 index slightly edges out the other two criteria.  Isolating this criteria is near impossible as it almost always occurs with a 700+ pitch spike – only 2 cases have occurred in the past 4 years.  But as the next section will show, it does seem to do a good job of isolating the riskier players who satisfy one of the other two criteria.

Testing 2+ of the Criteria

As noted above, while it appears that each criteria by itself is a positive indicator, isolating it from the other criteria saps it of any power.

The below chart shows the various combinations of the three criteria.  A combination of 2+ of the criteria nets a 34% dropoff rate (index 128) and all three criteria nets 40.6% (index 151).

Season Prior (2700+ pitches + xFIP < 5.00)	Shortcut description	Seasons	Dropoff Seasons	% of Dropoff	Index
Slider > 15%	A	158	47	29.7%	110
Pitch Diff > 700	B	112	38	33.9%	126
First Year > 2500	C	78	27	34.6%	129
None of three	-(ABC)	126	27	21.4%	80
1+ of three	A OR B OR C	223	67	30.0%	112
2+ of three	2 OR MORE	93	32	34.4%	128
All three	A & B & C	32	13	40.6%	151
*2 or more is the sum of ‘All three’ plus:
	A AND C NOT B	3	0	0.0%	0
	A AND B NOT C	17	6	35.3%	131
	B AND C NOT A	41	13	31.7%	118

If I had just limited my risky pitcher selections to only those that fit 2 criteria, Vazquez, Lilly, and Baker could’ve been replaced by Edinson Volquez (first MLB year with 2,500+ pitches and 700+ pitch spike), Manny Parra (same two criteria) and either Backe or Redding (whom I noted as risks) and netted a respectable 11-for-20 (with Greinke and Lester being painful selections).

Here is a breakdown of the 19 pitchers that qualified as a falloff with the # of criteria they met.  8 of the 19 (42%) fit 2+ criteria while 26 of the 73 (35.6%) overall fit the criteria (index: 118):

2009 Dropoff Pitchers
	Slider 15+%	Pitch Spike 700+	First Year Above 2,500+ MLB Pitches	Criteria Met
Andy Sonnanstine	1	1	1	3
Brandon Backe	1	1	1	3
Jesse Litsch	0	1	1	2
Edinson Volquez	0	1	1	2
Ervin Santana	1	1	0	2
Manny Parra	0	1	1	2
Brett Myers	1	1	0	2
Tim Redding	1	1	0	2
Ben Sheets	0	1	0	1
Dice-K	1	0	0	1
Derek Lowe	1	0	0	1
Hiroki Kuroda	1	0	0	1
Kyle Lohse	1	0	0	1
Oliver Perez	1	0	0	1
Jake Peavy	1	0	0	1
Scott Olsen	1	0	0	1
Brandon Webb	0	0	0	0
David Bush	0	0	0	0
Scott Kazmir	0	0	0	0

Final point for this section:  Of the 32 seasons that qualify for the trifecta, the ‘dropoff’ rate was 11-for-24 in 2005-2008 (46%) but only 2-for-8 in 2009 (25%).  Andy Sonnanstine (whom was on my list) and Brandon Backe (who was noted but not put on because he wasn’t likely to be drafted) were the two players in 2009 that fit the bill.     Todd Wellemeyer (2,117 pitches/0.72 xFIP increase),  Armando Galarraga (2,453 pitches,  0.53 xFIP increase), and John Lannan (0.41 xFIP increase) did see regression with Ricky Nolasco, Johnny Cueto, and Gavin Floyd were able to maintain or progress.  Just goes to show that even the highest indexing predictor can be ineffective for a season given its small sample.

That’s it for now.  In the next post, I’ll list out the 20 riskiest pitchers to not draft based on these criteria.

Tom Verducci of SI has posted his annual ‘Year After Effect’ post which poses that young pitchers who threw more than 30 innings last year than they had the year before as injury risks.  I had reference this theory as part of my risky pitchers tests.  For those who haven’t read this and are too lazy to click on it now…..or even now….I did find that significant pitching volume increases year-over-year does seem to have a carry-0ver effect but pitchers who threw high percentages of breaking pitches were more vulnerable (and a combination even worse).

A quick comparison of Verducci’s 10 vs. my risky pitchers shows the following:

• 3 pitchers we agree are risks (Lester, Pelfrey, Eveland)
• 5 pitchers that I feel can handle it because of their pitch mix (i.e., lack of breaking pitches), body type, or irrational exuberance (Hamels, Billingsley, Lincecum, Danks, Jurrjens)
• 2 pitchers I didn’t touch on – Kershaw (didn’t have enough major league pitches to qualify) and Niese (Met pitcher who didn’t make the team out of spring training)

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.  Verducci does claim a high level of success (“Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA”) but does ‘healthy’ mean makes every single start?  For fantasy purposes, if Hamels misses 5 starts and pitches as effective as last year, that’s not going to disappoint drafters.  Peavy was injured in 2008 but the part that really hurt was his team wouldn’t score for him so his Wins tanked.

While on the subject of Verducci, I never voiced a POV on his book with Joe Torre – ‘The Yankee Years’.  I enjoyed it.  I think Torre was sincere in his comments (on other people) and Verducci did a good job writing and reporting around him.  The three things that still resonate are:

1) It’s surprising that Joe Torre put his name on a book like this.  He seemed the ‘keep it in the locker room” type.  This book takes swipes at several players not to Torre’s liking.  The A-Rod stuff, in particular, goes well beyond what is necessary (forgetting the A-Fraud nickname).

2) Joe Torre could’ve aimed his candor a little more at himself.  How could he not admit that he mismanaged bullpens and/or his success is completely dependent on having 1-2 rubber-armed middle relievers in his bullpen (like Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton in 1996-2000)?  Torre must fantasize about a guy like Scot Shields.

3) Mike Mussina definitely doesn’t pull punches.  See this quote on Mariano Rivera.  I remember some other pretty harsh quotes about less likable fellows like Carl Pavano.  Definitely interesting to read but makes you wonder what he was really like as a teammate.