Fantasy Baseball Advice

Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley.  It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others.  For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?

With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2^nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball.  (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.)  For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.”  So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ‘2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one….

#1 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  32%

Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks.  His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)

So why is he #1 on the list?  He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard.  Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders.  Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.

If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season.  Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.

#2 – Ross Ohlendorf

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  24%

Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep  leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009.  Translation:  Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.

#3 – Kevin Correia

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  30%

Petco : ERA is equal to:

a)      Baco : Salad

b)      Balco : HRs

c)      Maaco: Brakes

d)     Yoko : Oh no Beatles!

e)     All of the above

The correct answer is E.  Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre.   12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43^rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.

The problem?  While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors.  Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls).  You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common?  We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….

#4– Joba Chamberlain

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  22%

I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.

As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway.   But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.

Pass on him as a starter.  Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.

#5 – Randy Wells

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  27%

Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009.  Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.

While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.

But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average).  He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).

#6 – Adam Wainwright

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches:  No.
Slider %: 19%

#7 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero.  Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?

Case in point:  Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year.  His 3,614 pitchers were 3^rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632).  Sabathia was #4 at 3,587.  Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury).   He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors.  Who was 2^nd in the most breaking pitchers?  None other than Chris Carpenter.

There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners).   For Wainwright, he had the 5^th most effective slider and 2^nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8^th and 17^th respectively).  His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5^th most effective).

Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers?  Tough to say.  But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

#8 – Jason Hammel

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  14.9%

The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP.  In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).

On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches.  And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider).  So he’s not too much ’safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.

#9 – Jeff Niemann

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high.  Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel.  He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP).  While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid.  And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.

His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.

This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals.  How’s that for double talk (talk)?    But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him.  I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.

#10 – Gavin Floyd

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The first returnee from last year!  Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.

And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).

I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd:  1) You win Round #1 and  2) Good luck winning Round #2.

I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.

#11 – Ryan Dempster

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  34%

The second returnee from last year!  Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief.  Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008.  That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.

I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%).  It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).

So be careful before you Dempster dive….

#12 – Jorge de la Rosa

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  15%

George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky.  De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.

While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much.  He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.

He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.

But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only.  If he comes cheap, grab him.  Otherwise, pass.

#13 – Max Scherzer

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.

Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.

But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher.  Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year.  Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.

I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.

#14 – Ricky Romero

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  13%

Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13).  A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).

My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards.  Follow that instinct.

#15 – Joel Pineiro

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  12%

Talk about an efficient pitcher.  Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170).  No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!

So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency.  And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling.  In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.

I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him.  If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.

#16 – Edwin Jackson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce.  Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.

To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious.  To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.  In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).

Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders.  His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1.  Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.

The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.

#17 – Scott Feldman

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  2%

Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins.  17 wins?!  AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!

Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates.  So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.

The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd.  44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve.  He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else.  That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9).  The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%).  Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH.  Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH.  Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness.  Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.

Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.

#18 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever.  How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP?  You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%).  If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.

All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me.  He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%).  Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year.   But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.

#19 – Tommy Hanson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  24%

Mmm…flop?  No, definitely no.  Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher.  I still want him on at least one of my teams.  The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.

The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s.  24% sliders and another 14% curveballs.  He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.

I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.

#20 – Josh Johnson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion).  He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH).  He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.

But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be.  I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood.  Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.

This is almost the end of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there was only guy who truly emerged (Edwin Jackson), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list.  But humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Benrich Shardard – This is a one person pormanteau/tier made of three players:  Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard and Rich Harden.  I call this tier, “Together they’re starting 30 games and vying for a Cy Young.”  They’re some of my favorite pitchers to watch when they’re healthy, but, well, ya know.  (Here’s more on Ben Sheets.)  2010 Projections:  Combined 180-day DL

62. Gavin Floyd – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Danks.  I call this tier, “White Sox starters that I’m respectively excited about, lukewarm over and cold on.”  Would you believe I’m endorsing Gavin Floyd? As De Niro said in the Spider scene, “What’s the world coming to?!”  Floyd made positive gains in K-rate and walk rate while throwing less of his fastball and more of his slider.  Whatever works, Yellnikoff.  I’m not predicting Floyd’s going to be a Cy Young contender, but real late you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175

63. Mark Buehrle – Buerhrle’s what they used to call plump prostitutes in the early 1800s, a work horse, but horse was spelled different.  I have no problem owning Buerhle on certain teams, but you’re not getting the perfect game pitcher or the 6 runs in 5 inning one.  Somewhere in the middle like Monie Love.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125

64. John Danks -  He’s the opposite of Floyd.  It’s almost like the gains Floyd made were taken from Danks.  Weird!  2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155

65. Wade Davis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Latos.  I call this tier, “They’re going to be good ones, but right now they’re more or less rookie pitchers.”  The nice thing about Davis, even more so than Feliz and Strasburg, who appeared in the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, is he may actually give you close to a complete season.  He could throw close to 200 innings without turning his career over to Dr. Freeze.  The bad is his walks haven’t been great.  2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160

66. Chris Tillman – As I explained in the Double Stuff Orioles post, I’m not a huge fan of rookie pitchers.  Technically, Tillman’s not a rookie, but more or less the same applies.  The more is they can still be very up and down.  The less is they have some major league time under their belt and can begin to pitch up to their capability.  Let’s continue this in Matusz’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150

67. Brian Matusz – As I was saying, if they get up to their capability then they shoot up the rankings and become far more valuable.  So you have to weigh how much upside you want from your last starter.  I already went over my Matusz fantasy.  2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145

68. Mat Latos – Ah, sweet, sweet, HodgePadre.  He has a sick, as in healthy, K-rate in the minors.  But, as the kids used to say when I was a kid, he’s hella young.  Hey, I’m Old Hella.  2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125 in 20 starts.

69. Chris Young – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Penny.  I call this tier, “Vets that probably won’t see a resurgence, but they can add some much needed stability to the back of a staff.”  Young may be the Padres number one starter, but that’s like being the tallest dwarf.  Cristal Young had a 91 MPH fastball when he made his debut in 2004 with the Rangers.  In 2009, he was regularly clocked at 85.  At 91, you can leave it in the upper part of the strikezone.  At 85, not so much.  Not to mention, every guy he walks gets an automatic double.  Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.  2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145

70. Hiroki Kuroda – He doesn’t K many guys or stay healthy, but he manages to keep his ratios in check.  Good name to look at late.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100

71. Aaron Harang – I read somewhere some genius was saying something about Chris Young, “Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.”  Same could be said about Harang.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155

72. Bronson Arroyo – Trade for him in July.  Look at his splits to see what I’m talking about it.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140

73. John Maine – I wish I could tell you he’s more than a big question mark, but he’s not.  If he looks good in spring training, I could see him going up draft sheets.  But I could also see him pitching well in April then going down with shoulder problems.  2010 Projections:  9-8/4.15/1.32/85 in 105 innings.

74. Brad Penny – Penny’s my least favorite type of starter.  Overweight with an STD from Alyssa Milano? No, random italicized voice.  Penny’s devoid of Ks and upside.  He should be perfectly meh in the NL while Dave Duncan sprinkles pixie dust on his melon.  Penny might even be great for stretches like he was in San Fran in September of last year.  He also had an obscene BABIP in San Fran.  He’s a mid-4 ERA pitcher.  It’s meh, but sometimes meh is what the doctor ordered.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110

75. Brandon Morrow - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Eh, may as well end this sucker on a good note.”  These pitchers aren’t exactly exciting, but compared to some other names on this list, they’re a’ight.  As most of you know, when in doubt, I’m going for NL starters at the end of a draft.  Then there’s Morrow.  There’s very few starters you’re getting this late that can pitch as well as Morrow.  Can he stay healthy?  Aw, heck’s no.  Does he walk far too many hitters?  Uh, yeah.  Still decent endgame gamble if he starts strong and you can flip him.  2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100

76. Homer Bailey – Do I think there’s a chance that you’ll draft him and drop him before May?  Yeah, probably.  But it’s a flier, that’s what fliers are for.  You can always grab someone off waivers if Bailey doesn’t work out.  Ringing endorsement, huh?  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145

77. Ted Lilly – Lilly just feels safe.  Not safe for a 3.10 ERA again.  Not safe for 180 Ks again.  Not safe for 17 wins again.  Not safe to start the season healthy because of an injured shoulder.  But safe.  Hmm, maybe not safe, but I’d stash him on the DL for April to see what he can do when he returns.  2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100

78. Aroldis Chapman – Already went over my Aroldis Chapman fantasy.  2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70

79. Randy Wells – Not one of my all-time favorite types of upside picks because there’s not many strikeouts here.  On the bright side, there’s very few walks too.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130

80. Justin Masterson – Masterson’s heat died when he left the Sons of Sam Horns’ hornet nest, but that doesn’t mean something’s wrong with him.  He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.  2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150

After the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a ton of names, but here’s two that stand out.  One not good, one great:

Trevor Cahill – Cahill had a huge innings bump from ‘08 to ‘09 and he has no Ks.  Than, but no than.  2010 Projections:  8-12/4.50/1.40/80

Jonathan Sanchez – I’m a big fan of Jonathan Sanchez. Might end up owning him on multiple teams.  As Fonzie’s horse said, “Nay!”  I might own him on every team.  May draft him in a couple of AL-Only leagues just to keep snitches honest.  I wrote an entire post already about my Jonathan Sanchez fantasy.  He. Is. Dazzling.  That’s right, I brought out the tooly one word sentence gimmick to make a point.  This Sanchez isn’t dirty, he’s filthy.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200 <–optimistic, but you’re not paying me to be conservative.  In fact, this shizz is free.

During our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Clay Buchholz – This is a continuation of the last tier on the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  This tier ends at Strasburg.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  Some might be confused by Cueto ranking before Buchholz, so let’s compare those two.  As linguists intended it, we’ll go B before C.  In 2009, K/9 — 6.65 vs. 6.93, BB/9 — 3.52 vs. 3.20, 25 years old vs. 23 years old, 190 2/3 career MLB innings vs. 345 1/3 IP.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155

42. Ervin Santana – Ervin’s 2009 was similar to Scott Baker’s.  He came out of spring training with an arm injury, but, unlike Baker and Stella, Ervin never found his groove.  This late in drafts I’m willing to overlook Ervin’s Gorilla Ponson impersonation last year.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185

43. Neftali Feliz – Already went over my Neftali fantasy.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120 in 20 starts.

44. Jorge de la Rosa – His appearance in this tier is solely because of his Ks.  Don’t believe me?  Throw your computer out the window, there’s no talking to you.  And to think we were friends.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200

45. Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson, the future ace, is not without caveats in 2010.  Innings jump was big in 2009.  The reason why I’m willing to take a late flier on him instead of, say, Hanson is because Anderson will come much cheaper in drafts.  Second caveat, Anderson really only had two months where he looked like an ace.  Though those two months were in the 2nd half.  If Hughes is in the rotation, I would switch these two.  So, I would take a shot on Anderson late, but I’d also be aware of the risk.  2010 Projections:  10-11/3.70/1.27/165

46. Phil Hughes – Won’t know until spring training, but my guess is it will be Joba in the rotation and Phil Hughes as a top 20 middle reliever.  Even if Hughes gets the starting spot, I could see him being limited on a strict innings count.  2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130 in 130 innings.

47. Joba Chamberlain – About time the Yankees take the ignition lock breathalyzer off the steering wheel and let Joba take his arm out for a drive.  Or put him in middle relief.  As of post time, it’s not clear yet.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160

48. Stephen Strasburg – Already went over my Strasburg fantasy.  The reason why I have him after Feliz is because of the kid gloves the Nats are going to be using with him.  The reason why I have him above some known commodities is because if he somehow breaks camp with the Nats, you’ve won the draft lottery.  Right after the announcement, you’d be able to trade Strasburg for a tidy haul.  Say, Billy Butler.  Now twirl your mustache!  2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110

49. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Romero.  I call this tier, “Guys that I’m not drafting, but might pick up on waivers during the season if the opportunity presents itself and it probably will.”  When Edwin Jackson was traded, I said I might own him in the right circumstances.  I’m officially retracting that.  On closer inspection, I don’t want anything to do with him outside of matchups.  I was clouded by the thought of facing the Giants and Padres, but he was far too lucky last year.  I don’t think Edwin will be quite the 2nd half pitcher he was last year — 5.07 ERA — but I think that’s closer than the pitcher he was in the first half — 2.52 ERA.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him have completely ownable stretches, but overall meh.  2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140

50. Joe Blanton – I owned Blanton for a good stretch last year.  Looking at my active stats, in 81 2/3 innings, Blanton gave me 6 wins, 3.31/1.18/59.  Awesome, terrific, adjective, but Blanton’s a pitcher you get off waivers.  You don’t draft Joe Blanton.  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140

50 1/2. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATE:  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar having an MRI in the preseason is reason enough to ignore him.  Then throw in potential regression and it’s not worth the ulcer.  2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings

51. Scott Kazmir – The Angels are planning on Kazmir filling in Lackey’s spot in the rotation.  Injury risk — check!  Falling K-rate — check!  Overrated for fantasy — we have a winner for the crapfecta!  2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145

52. Derek Lowe – The days of being able to own Lowe from start to finish look to be over.  He’ll have matchups appeal here and there, but you don’t want to draft him.  2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100

53. J.A. Happ – Meh K-rate, high walk rate, bad home park, lucky BABIP, insane amount of men left on base… Mr. Caps Lock says, “HAPP WAS THE LUCKIEST PITCHER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES LAST YEAR.”  At some point it will Happen.  You don’t want to be there when it does.  2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155

54. Rick Porcello – A below 5 K-rate and a 45 inning bump from ‘08 secures his place in the Do Not Touch tier.  2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75

55. Daisuke Matsuzaka – I gave up on Dice-K after his unbelievable 2008.  And by unbelievable I mean improbable, not superb.  2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150

56. Joel Pineiro – I’d recommend you hire Gary Glitter as a babysitter before advising you to draft Pineiro.  2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90

57. Randy Wolf – One the hardest things about doing these rankings is going over guys that treated you so well last year then having to write about how you don’t want any part of them in the new season.  When Wolf was traded, I said, “In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155

58. Ricky Romero – To be totally honest, I almost put Romero in a tier with guys I would draft, but in the end, he’s not especially dominant, he’s in a tough division and he’s injury prone.  In an AL-Only league, I’d draft him, but in mixed leagues, I’d stay away.  2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155

59. Tim Hudson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Correia.  I call this tier, “Boring, but ownable.”  On one hand, Hudson’s a reliable vet with a mid-3 career ERA, while a little light on Ks.  On the other hand, Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery.  That brings with it risk similar to playing with your iPasties app near Carl Monday.  Face it, there’s really no sure² thing this late.  2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145

60. Kevin Correia – The first HodgePadre to make the starter rankings.  This goes without saying but it’s not going to be a fun year to watch the Padres.  Depressing, actually.  They should broadcast every game with Warren Zevon’s Keep Me In Your Heart playing in the background.  2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135

Corey Hart is out for up to a month with an appendectomy.  My college roommate had an appendectomy and he returned from the hospital in 24 hours and back to drinking Olde E forties with me by Friday, which is what we called Tuesday.  Bill Hall will be recalled (Score one for NL pitchers) and Frank Catalanotto will see time in right field (score one for the Catalanottos).  Good thing the Brewers traded for Gerut.  Who?  Hey, you sound like Ken Macha!  I expect the Hart will go on in September.  If he gives you his biggest month of the season then, it’ll be about 4 homers and 4 steals for the month.  Whoopie!  If Hart’s still on your team, now’s as good a time as any to cut him, unless you have DL room.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler – Just hit the DL.  Usually he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin for another twenty games.  Kinsler was in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  Betcha can guess which side of the slash he fell on.

Neftali Feliz – Called up to come out of the bullpen.  Yes, he’s flippin’ awesome.  I know.  But out of the bullpen?  Eh.  If your league’s deep enough, I guess I could see it, but I’m not running out to grab him.

Frank Francisco – Activated and set up C.J. Wilson, who got the save.  Should be about a week until Francisco’s the closer again.  And about a week and a half until he’s back on the DL.

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 2 ER and his 10th win.  Incredible.  Three of my starters together don’t have 10 wins and this schmohawk does.  Feldman who has 58 Ks in 119 2/3 innings.  I hate wins.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2 HRs in his last three games.  If it’s a hot streak, it’s long overdue.

Ian Snell – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 6 baserunners.  Got the start for the M’s vs. the Rangers.  I don’t mind a pickup of Snell in 12 team leagues, but he gets the Rays then the Yanks in his next two starts.

Chad Billingsley – Left the game with a cramp.  Aw, it’s that time of the month.  He should be ready for his next start.

Casey Blake – Had problems swinging a bat during batting practice, now he’s headed for X-rays on his hand.  Coulda called me, I own X-ray glasses.  Thank you, back of a comic book.

Matt Kemp – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs with a homer from the five hole.  This was his first homer of the year while batting above the 6th spot. (<–Torre supplied that info.)

Scott Downs – To the DL.  What I don’t get is why was Downs the closer anyway?  It’s not like he has some absurd contract cough B.J. Ryan cough.  Jason Frasor takes over the job he should’ve had anyway.  I’d own Frasor in any league.

Scott Rolen – Beaned on the helmet by a pitch.  Phillies fans can’t believe it took that long for the voodoo doll work.  Rolen should be fine.  Phew…  The Reds playoff hopes are counting on him going 120/50/120/.450 and pitching 30 no-hitters in the last two months.

Drew Sutton – 2-for-5, has SS eligibility and 15/15 type appeal.  Do I think he can reach those numbers?  I have my doubts.  But Dusty hit him leadoff all weekend and Dusty is CRAZY enough to keep him there.  Worth a flier in NL-Only leagues, keeper and otherwise.  (Dusty gets crazy in caps, you shouldn’t have to ask.)

Jon Garland – 9 IP, 2 ER vs. Guess who.  The Mets.  C’mon, these are gimmes…  Kinda like starts vs. the Mets.

Miguel Montero – 3-for-5 as he hit cleanup.  Hinch, you don’t hit a catcher cleanup then platoon him with Chris Snyder.  I’m not sure why the D’Backs are forcing Snyder into the lineup every other day or so, but Miguel Montero’s value is taking a hit.  I’m sure Tonya Harding’s available (and cheap) if anyone wants to send her to the desert looking for Snyder.

Ty Wigginton – HR yesterday.  As I mentioned in Friday’s Buy/Sell, he goes from Mr. Wigginton to Dr. Donkowitz in August.  Why?  Beats the shizz out of me.

Ronnie Cedeno – HR yesterday with the Pirates.  All he needed was a change of scenary… And 120 MPH winds blowing out.

Elijah Dukes – Trouble’s back in the town called Malice.  Riggleman says Dukes will get the majority of starts and he should.  Definitely worth a flier in 12 team leagues and deeper.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Unfortunately, he pitched against Brian Bannister, who looked like his brother Bruce.  Would’ve been nice to get the win, but I was just happy to see Shields dominate.  Baby steps, Bob, baby steps.

Mark Buehrle – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now that’s how you make a correction to your season stats.

Gordon Beckham – I was getting some shizz in our fantasy baseball forums for pushing people to pick up Beckham.  In July, he hit .330 with 3 homers and 3 steals.  That’s kinda good for a guy who has shortstop eligibility.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 7 for his last 17 with two homers.  A’la Cher from Clueless, “AS-drubal!”

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 5 Ks, 4 walks, 2 hits.  That’s the problem.  The walks.  I suppose I’d own him for his next start, but I don’t think he’s going to have a rotation spot for much longer and he’s still a rookie and liable to roofie you.

Kendry Morales – 2 HRs, 6 RBIs.  March Grey told you he was a sleeper.  (Please ignore June Grey that told you to Sell him.  June Grey was phoning it in from a methadone clinic.  It was a dark time.)

Jered Weaver – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 Ks.  Sure would be nice to see him throw a game where he doesn’t give up 4+ earned, but the 11 Ks vs. the Twins is pretty impressive.

Orlando Cabrera – 1-for-3, HR yesterday as he batted 2nd.  He hit near .400 in July. (Ted Williams, “Unfreeze me when you do it over an entire season.”)  I’m not a huge fan of a guy who has light power and diminishing speed, but you can probably do worse at SS.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER vs. the A’s was a nice matchup and, for the rest of the season, Romero has matchup potential, but I think the Jays will have to begin to limit his innings.

Casey McGehee – Well, lookie what the MI schmohawk cat dragged in.  McGehee hit 2 homers in the last four games and has been playing regularly at 3rd base.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs.  Not  sure why, but I have a special place in my heart for Velez.  Maybe because he’s a buck thirty soaking wet.  Potatoes to chips, Velez is hitting near .500 over the last week.

Cole Hamels – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Did you really just get out-pitched by Barry Zito?  For shamels.

Jake Fox – Of course he hit a homer yesterday, he started.   I’m not what you would call a person who gets involved.  I yell, “Hands free,” to people who are talking on their cellphone while they’re driving, but that’s about the extent of my community involvement.  But if I were, say, a person who takes action, I’d start a campaign to make Jake Fox the catcher.

Victor Martinez – 5-for-6, 4 RBIs as the Red Sox won 18-10.  Without V-Mart, the Red Sox would’ve won 14-10.  Even the Yankees disapprovingly shook their heads mumbling, “Enough’s enough.”

David Ortiz – 0-for-5, 1 RBI.  Ticker Tease!

Clay Buchholz – 4 IP, 7 ER.  When you’re working with a 14 run cushion… Well… You gave him a shot.  It just didn’t work out.  I’d let him figure it out on someone else’s team.

Melky Cabrera – Hit for the cycle yesterday.  The guy who took four minutes to design “Got Melky” t-shirts at Cafepress is ecstatic.

Matt Holliday is a sell.  Zoinks!  Holliday’s value does go up with this trade to the Cards.  But his value doesn’t skyrocket as it seems most people will now think.  Remember, this is Matt “Shin-Soo Choo Has Better Numbers Than Me” Holliday.  In the National League, where there’s better pitching and less Runs scored, suddenly Matt Holliday has a ton of value?  Way more value than he had in Oakland?  Why, because Oakland was a bad team and the Cards were a great team?  Oakland actually had a better OBP than St. Louis (though that includes Holliday).  Better ballpark?  This year Oakland Coliseum actually ranks above Busch for offense.  Holliday will suddenly readjust his sonar for NL pitchers?  That didn’t work so well when he moved to the AL.  Listen, I think Holliday’s a terrific hitter, but to suddenly expect him to cure gout is asking too much.  I wouldn’t sell Holliday for a box of Cinnamon Toast Crunch, but I’d explore offers.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chone Figgins – I don’t like Figgins.  He reminds me of Grover Dill to Vlad’s Scut Farkus.  More than that, I think you put yourself in an ugly hole if you have a 3rd baseman who gets you less than 5 homers on the year (though that hasn’t stopped me from touting Alex Gordon before).  But this is about something else.  This is about do or die time in fantasy leagues.  It’s coming up with fantasy baseball trading deadlines approaching faster than ever.  (It’s true, it’s faster this year.  Has to do with gravity or some shizz.)  So you have the Dwarf Planet (Pablo Sandoval) at third and you’re fine in the outfield with a bunch of big boppers (minus Richie Valens and Buddy Holly), but you’re stuck in third place and need steals.  Steals are the easiest thing to catch up in (saves being a close second).  Chone Figgins may not have been appealing to you (or I) on draft day, but right now you need steals and Figgy can provide them.  Or Bourn.  Or Taveras.  Or Ellsbury.  Or random schmohawk SAGNOF’er behind door number three.  Time is not your friend.  Do what you do, but Figgins is a very viable option if you need steals.  So… Figgy, give me one more chance…. (Notice how I didn’t mention his Runs or average.  His steals, that’s why you get him.)  (Notice II, this paragraph has more sidenotes than a David Foster Wallace story.  (You went way too soon.))

Chris Perez/Jon Rauch/Jim Johnson – Potential vulture SAGNOF’ers.

Matt Thornton – With Bobby being jenky, Thornton’s a decent vulture to look at for potential saves.  Though the White Sox have a pretty deep bullpen so it’s probably not that clear cut.

Seth Smith – The Rox are saying Smith is their every day leftfielder.  He could hit 10+ homers and some steals with full time play, but I still doubt he sees many ABs vs. lefties.  So his name is about as boring as his stats.  Talk about selling a buy!  Smith’s worth a spot in deep leagues, I wouldn’t bother with him in 12 team leagues yet.

Erick Aybar – Okay, Alex, Aybar Brothers for $300.  This Aybar brother has seven homers and a .282 average.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, that would be Willy.  Aybar Brothers for $400.  This Aybar brother is batting .417 in his last four games.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, still Willy.  Okay, let’s finish the category.  This Aybar brother is batting .483 in the last 7 games, has stolen two bags and plays every day.  Who is Willy?  No, it’s Erick.  You might think about auditioning for Wheel of Fortune.

Miguel Montero – Honestly, the D’Backs shouldn’t play Sndyer when he returns.  Miggy Pipp is doing work with his lumber stick.

Daric Barton – In his first start filling in for Giambi, Barton hit a homer.  Since then he’s made Nadir Bupkus look promising.  Doode needs to do much better with the time he’s getting while Giambi nurses his no ‘roids problem.  But all of that aside, Barton’s still worth a look in AL-Only leagues.

Chris Tillman – If the Orioles bring him up, and it seems like they will, he could be a solid guy for matchups.  Just don’t drop anyone too valuable in one year leagues because the Orioles schedule gets ugly in September.

Steve Pearce – Member when he went by Steven?  Ah, maybe I’m showing my age.  Pearce was recalled from Indianapolis on June 21st and has played once since July 8th.  Here’s what I think happened.  The Pirates bought a ticket for Ian Snell to be recalled, he said he was having too much fun in Indianapolis (I’ve been to Indianapolis; Snell may want to redefine fun), so Snell gave his ticket to Pearce.  Pearce should get some time at first with LaRoche outta there.  At one time, Pearce was a decent prospect, tis the reason he’s even here.  Tis indeed.

Jon Niese – I think he’s underseasoned like your Mom’s cooking, but he is in the NL and in Metco.  Matchups could work for him.

Rajai Davis – Rajai Davis is a buy and Holliday’s a Sell?  What’s the world coming to?  With Holliday out of town, Rajai could see more time.  SAGNOF!

SELL

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a sell two weeks ago.  With the Holliday trade, things are only going to get worse.

Kerry Wood/Chad Qualls/George Sherrill – The Trading Deadline Reaper may be cutting off their saves.

Ricky Romero – Really, I could’ve put any young pitcher here whose innings are starting to creep up.  Young pitchers will begin to get skipped and shutdown to preserve their arms.

Jarrod Washburn – Watching Washburn ‘09 vs. Washburn Oh-earlier in his career is like watching any Batman not directed by Joel Schumacher right after any Batman directed by Joel Schumacher.  Everything is pointing to Washburn being a solid starter going forward, but I can’t tell you to grab a guy that I wouldn’t grab myself.  I’m sorry, I don’t trust Washburn as far as I can throw him. (And I can’t throw him very far — I mean, look at my mustachioed picture — that’s actual size.)

Garrett Jones – Blasphemy!  I don’t think he’s going to hit another 9 homers in his next ten games.  That’s all I’m saying.  Don’t shoot the messenger.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how the phrase don’t shoot the messenger was out there since Shakespeare (thanks, Wikipedia!) then everyone starting going postal? It’s almost like postal employees felt too safe and abused their power.  Or not!  These are things for you to decide.)