Fantasy Baseball Advice

In the preseason, I said Adam Lind could contend for the MVP.  Wow.  It’s almost like Matthew Berry put that thought in my head.  In a litany of dopey things I’ve said, that might take the cake, frost it and smush it into my face.  The Berry feeds the Grey (bad advice), the Berry feeds the Grey (bad advice)… Hi-ho, the marry-o… What was I thinking?!  In my defense, he didn’t have an ailing back when I said that flimflammery and I told you to drop him outright a few weeks ago.  Oh, well, that’s what you get sometimes from crazy predictions.  Just flat-out crazy.  Like I should be walking into traffic in a burlap sack crazy.  So the Jays added a third A to Lind’s first name, sending him to the minors.  Since he was hitting like an infant, it makes sense.  In his place, the Jays called up Yan Gomes.  What’s with people and the last name Gomes unable to spell John?  Yanny was hitting .359 with 5 dingers in Triple-A.  Whatever, right?  Well, he’s a catcher, so those are like MVP (dah!) numbers.  In AL-Only leagues, I could see grabbing him.  Right now, he’s behind J.P., Mathis, Lawrie and Encarnacion, but Lawrie’s got a suspension and Edwin just made an error and the Jays game doesn’t even start for 12 hours, so Yanny could see time all over the field.  Yesterday, he played third and went 2-for-3.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Lawrie – Unable to decide on the shadow coat rack or just bad calls, he dropped his appeal.  He is also practicing counting to ten before blowing his top.  As soon as he figures out what comes after 6 it should be a breeze.

J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  I think he leads my RCL team in homers.  Now I will cry.

Mat Latos – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks which equals a pretty mediocre start in Metco.  This was his chance to string three quality starts together.  At best, that chance only comes around once every three starts!

Lucas Duda – I didn’t mention it yesterday when he had a 3-for-4 day because I wasn’t sure if it would be a 3-for-4 day followed by a 1-for-4 day or a 3-for-4 day followed by a 3-for-4 day or a 2-for-5 day.  It turns out that 3-for-4 day became a 2-for-5 day and now he looks like he’s a hot schmotato again.  And, sorry, I think my 3-for-4 day record is scratched; it keeps repeating.

Ike Davis – 0-for-2 to lower his average to .164.  He’ll be fine.  He has his family’s support.  You know who I really worry about?  That poor soul who drafted Hosmer and Ike Davis.

David Wright – 2-for-2 with his 4th steal.  I pledged a nickel to Jerry Lewis’s Kids for every time I mention Wright.  We’re up to fifteen cents.

Dayan Viciedo – 1-for-4 with his 6th homer and 3rd in the last 4 games, and hitting .381 in the last week.  As we know, Viciedo is Latin for I Swing Therefore I Am, and he’s living up to that.  In 118 ABs, he has 32 Ks and 3 walks, but if he’s swinging a hot bat, what do you care?

Chris Sale – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks as the White Sox let him throw 102 pitches.  Could someone help the White Sox tie their shoes because they’re wearing kid gloves?

Josh Reddick – 2-for-5 with his 10th homer.  I wouldn’t use Reddick’s towel to dry my hands, but I’m sure enjoying him on our teams.

Adam Wainwright – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Far from a beautiful outing vs. the Melky-led Giants.  “Yo, Giants fans, you got Melky in your three hole.  Y’all is spoiled!”  That’s a Padres fan talking.  If you heard this week’s podcast, Rudy and I discussed Wainwright with some favorable mentions and whatnot.

Allen Craig – Out for a few days with a tight hammy.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit the DL.  Poor guy, can’t have nothing nice with his health around.  It’s like Chipper Jones is his mentor. “Now, when you get out of bed, you’re gonna feel your quad tighten up.  That’s totally natural.”

Matt Carpenter – 3-for-5, 2 runs as he got the start in right field with Berkman back in the lineup.  He should continue to see starts with Craig pulling a Craig.  I’m also convinced that the Cards could put anyone in their lineup and they’d hit.

Charlie Culberson – The Charlie Culberson Era has officially begun!  That’s almost as electrifying as TBS’s George Lopez Era.  Charlie Culberson sounds like he has grit and other intangibles, but for s’s and g’s let’s see what tangibles he has.  This year in Triple-A, he hit 5 homers with a steal.  The year before in Double-A, 10 homers, 14 steals.  His glove’s a bit sloppy, i.e., Charlie Culberson makes fielding grounders cumbersome (say that fast 117 times!).  Sounds nice for fantasy, right?  Yeah, he might also hit .210.  Charlie Culberson not only has a name that only sounds right if you say the whole thing, but he also hasn’t seen too many pitches he doesn’t like.  In NL-Only leagues, you can find worse — like the other schmohawks the Giants were playing at 2nd.  In mixed leagues, let’s see how ol’ Charlie Culberson plays out.

Trevor Plouffe – 1-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  Plouffe goes the dynamite!

Justin Morneau – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Don’t sleep on Morneau!  Seriously, because if you guys knock heads while laying on top of him, you may seriously hurt him.  If you really need a corner infidel, I’d go ahead and grab him.  Of ghrabi him, if you like things spelled to look like they’re in the Middle East.

Matt Capps – Perfect inning to notch his 8th save.  I’m totally jinxing him by even talking about him, but I remember distinctly during our RCL draft (after ending up with Cano instead of Votto!), Rudy saying to me how Storen and Valverde were the solid closers that I drafted, but how I’m gonna regret Capps.  This year more than most, it just proves SAGNOF!  Draft three closers, pray they work out and don’t overpay for them.

Mark Trumbo – 4-for-4 with a steal (hitting .370) while Pujols hit his 3rd homer and 2nd in as many games.  It only took Scioscia 39 games to figure out a lineup!  Don’t worry, it’ll take the Sciosciapath only a day to forget.   Oh, and good luck on buying low on Pujols now.  Oh, Part II:  The Return Of Oh:  This Pujols turnaround all started with the firing of the hitting coach.

C.J. Wilson – 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners (6 BBs), 3 Ks.  Fire the pitching coach!

Mitch Moreland – 2-for-2, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and 2 jacks.  Don’t you despise people who call homers jacks?  It’s not as bad as people who use the word uber, but it’s not far off.

Ryan Roberts – 3-for-5 yesterday, and, since his Creeper of the Week post on Monday, he’s 7-for-18 with a steal and two new tats.

Justin Upton – 1-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer to raise his average to .224.  If you had thoughts of buying low, time could be slipping, slipping, slipping into the frontal suture.  Damn you, Autocorrect!

Trevor Bauer – Was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A yesterday as he slowly makes his way to the majors.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Bob Sugar read it and gave me a thumbs up.

Orlando Hudson – Was released by the Padres.  You know who’s ears are perking up?  Brian Sabean.  He likes his meat aged, jerky!  I wish Orlando Hudson the best; I always loved his mom, Florida Evans.

Carlos Ruiz – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs and a steal.  He’s doing better than my Utility man in the RCL.  It’s sad, because it’s true.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  That’s his first homer since April 27th.  That’s a long delay on the snooze button.

Brandon Beachy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks to lower his ERA to 1.33.  Pretttay, pretttay good.  He could be a top ten starter this year, and that guy that has an ERA around 2.50 in September.  With Beachy, it’s no shore thing, but ride the wave.

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks as he was beat by a Barajas homer.  Or as J-Z would say B*****s.

Dee Gordon – 0-for-3, lowering his average to .207.  If he doesn’t turn it around, we’re about ten days away from him being demoted.

James McDonald – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Five and two-thirds and only 5 baserunners with 11 Ks but 3 earned?  That doesn’t even seem possible.  Raw deal, J-Mac.  A’ight, real talk, guys and 4 girls, McDonald used to be a top prospect.  It was a while ago now, but maybe he’s putting his shizz on lock.  You feel me?  Okay, you’re just touching the computer screen; you’re not actually feeling me.  McDonald has around a 8 K/9, a strong FIP (2.88), and his walks are in check.  If Mickey D’s is out there, I’d absolutely grab him.

Andrew McCutchen – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  He’s going for the record of most homers with the least amount of RBIs.  The Pirates are doing all they can to support that record-setting goal.

Matt Moore – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Red Sox.  I’m sure this was a bit of a sonavabench for a bunch of you, but I’d much rather have a struggling starter do well on my bench than continue to stink up the joint.

Ricky Nolasco – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Aw, how sad, he was Rudy’s streamboat in the RCL.  Oh, wait, he benched him.  Sonavawishhewasn’tbenched!

Jose Altuve – 3-for-5 and his 8th steal.  I asked Rudy the other day if he thought Altuve should start being dropped in 12 team leagues.  His words were something like, “He’s a .300 hitter with 25 steal speed at the top of a lineup, what do people want from an MI?”

Doug Fister – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks and took the loss as he ran into the hot-hitting Twins.  I’m not completely joking either.  They actually have scored some runs of late.  Though, Mauer, who’s hitting .265, sure hasn’t been involved.

Welington Castillo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his first homer.  You think he gets this a lot, “Where’s the beef, Welington?”  Probably not.  I’m not going to say he’s a better option than Geovany Soto.  That’s obvious.  Soto has a bad case of can’t-hit-to-save-his-life-itis and a sore knee.  Welington had 15 homers last year in Triple-A.  Right now, he’s just for two catcher leagues, but I could see him stealing more time from Soto even when the latter gets healthy.

Johnny Giavotella – 1-for-4 to raise his average to .176 as the Guido played over Hosmer.  Sadly, it makes sense.

Brian Matusz – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. Luke Hochevar – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  That sounds like a tailor-made matchup for some fingercuffing that didn’t work out great for either finger.

Dustin Ackley – 1-for-5 with a steal.  Hey, his cleats arrived from Japan!

Brandon League – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  And on the fourth day, God said only Fernando Rodney and Jim Johnson can close with ERAs under 3.

Ichiro Suzuki – 0-for-6 to lower his average to .278.  Doode got old fast, right?  It’s my Morita Law of Asian Ages.  Pat Morita was young and spry on Happy Days, then five years later as Mr. Miyagi he looked ancient.

Hector Noesi – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks to lower his ERA to 5.61.  On a side note, I wonder if Carlos Beltran would pay for Jon Niese to have his last name changed to Noesi.

Welcome to our second FanDuel Freeroll of the season. And congrats to fyeabaseball who took 1st out of 337 entries and won a cool 75 toad hides. I came in 70th and am a disgrace to my family. This week’s freeroll is on Friday the 13th which means Peyton Hillis will jinx a Ricky Nolasco no-no.

Here are some possible plays for Friday’s games:

P: Ricky Nolasco: Ricky is 5-1 against the Astros with 2 complete games.

C: Ryan Hanigan: He is a pretty decent 5 for 5 against against Jordan Zimmerman. I think that is good. Let me get my calculator out.

1B: Justin Morneau: Morneau is 2 for 4 off Matt Harrison.

2B: Rickie Weeks: Jair Jurrjens has given up 3 hits in 7 at bats to Weeks.

2B: Robinson Cano: Cano has hit Ervin Santana very well in his career going 11 for 32 against him with 4 donkaruskis.

3B: Jack Hannahan: Your deep thought for today is that Hannahan is 6 for 11 off Luke Hochevar with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 ribbies.

3B: Chone Figgins: Bartolo Colon has allowed 5 hits in 12 at bats to Figgy Cent.

SS: Derek Jeter: He’s been hitting well early and is 17 for 38 with 3 home runs against Ervin Santana.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera: Luke Hochevar has not pitched well against the current Cleveland roster and Cabrera has hit 7 of 19 against him.

OF: Austin Jackson: Jackson is 3 for 6 against Jake Peavy and has been hot to start the season.

OF: Cameron Maybin: Maybin is 4 for 10 off Aaron Harang with a homer and has been playing wellish. Not Welsh.

OF: Shin-Soo Choo: Choo is 13 for 23 against Hochevar with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 10 RBIs.

Now let’s take a look at some of the early bargains at each position in FanDuel so far this season. There is a balance you have to make with value versus bad assness. You’ll see that Miguel Cabrera has been dominant so far AND has the most points per $1,000 spent (for non pitchers). So there is a win/win situation, but that’s not always the case. Jeff Samardzija is a risky player who really paid off last time but Felix Hernandez who costs a whole Yugo more is safer and put up 25 FanDuel Points in his first start. In hindsight you would choose Samardzija everyday, but we aren’t always going to be that lucky. That’s what makes the game fun I guess.

Pitchers Jeff Samardzija: $2,500 — 8.4 Points/$k | 21 FDP/g Lance Lynn: $3,900 — 4.9 Points/$k | 19 FDP/g Tommy Hunter: $3,100 — 4.8 Points/$k | 15 FDP/g Lucas Harrell: $3,500 — 4.6 Points/$k | 16 FDP/g Jason Hammel $4,300 — 4.0 Points/$k | 17 FDP/g Catchers Alex Avilla: $3,500 — 2.0 Points/$k | 7 FDP/g A.J. Ellis: $2,400 — 1.8 Points/$k | 4.3  FDP/g Yadier Molina: $2,800 — 1.6 Points/$k | 4.6 FDP/g Carlos Santana: $3,600 — 1.2 Points/$k | 4.5 FDP/g Josh Thole: $2,700 — 1.2 Points/$k | 3.3 FDP/g

First Basemen Miguel Cabrera: $4,400 — 2.2 Points/$k | 9.7 FDP/g Carlos Pena: $3,600 — 2.2 Points/$k | 8 FDP/g Adam Laroche: $3,000 — 1.8 Points/$k | 5.5 FDP/g Eric Hosmer: $3,800 — 1.3 Points/$k | 5 FDP/g Prince Fielder: $4,200 — 1.3 Points/$k | 5.7 FDP/g Second Basemen Omar Infante: $2,700 — 1.9 Points/$k | 5 FDP/g Ian Kinsler: $4,300 — 1.4 Points/$k | 6 FDP/g Kelly Johnson: $3,700 — 1.4 Points/$k | 5 FDP/g Ruben Tejada: $2,500 — 1.3 Points/$k | 3.2 FDP/g Aaron Hill: $3,300 –  1.3 Points/$k | 4.3 FDP/g

Third Basemen David Freese: $3,300 — 1.5 Points/$k | 5 FDP/g Pablo Sandoval: $4,000 — 1.5 Points/$k | 6 FDP/g Evan Longoria: $4,100 — 1.5 Points/$k | 6 FDP/g Chone Figgins: $2,600 — 1.4 Points/$k | 3.6 FDP/g Jack Hannahan: $2,400 — 1.4 Points/$k | 3.3 FDP/g Shortstops Zack Cozart: $2,700 — 1.9 Points/$k | 5 FDP/g Rafael Furcal: $3,100 — 1.4 Points/$k |4.4 FDP/g Jhonny Peralta: $3,100 — 1.2 Points/$k | 3.7 FDP/g Starlin Castro: $3,600 — 1.0 Points/$k | 3.5 FDP/g Dee Gordon: $3,800 — .9 Points/$k | 3.5 FDP/g

Outfielders Austin Jackson: $3,200 — 2.1 Points/$k | 6.7 FDP/g Corey Hart: $3,600 — 1.7 Points/$k | 6 FDP/g Yoenis Cespedes: $3,000 — 1.6 Points/$k | 4.8 FDP/g Matt Kemp: $4,800 — 1.5 Points/$k | 7 FDP/g Nick Markakis: $3,700 — 1.4 Points/$k | 5.2 FDP/g  Matt Joyce: $3,600 — 1.4 Points/$k | 5.0 FDP/g Andre Ethier: $3,700 — 1.3 Points/$k | 4.8 FDP/g Chris Young: $3,700 — 1.3 Points/$k | 4.7 FDP/g Emilio Bonifacio: $3,600 — 1.2 Points/$k | 4.2 FDP/g Jay Bruce: $3,900 — 1.2 Points/$k | 4.5 FDP/g

Ok, so you’re going to ask yourself ‘has Razzball turned into a Perez Hilton site?’  Why should you care that Jonathan Niese got a nose job because Carlos ‘Ricky’ Beltran made fun of him?  At first, I didn’t really care either but then I learned a bit more about the procedure from this article:

Niese said he has always had trouble breathing through his nose, which he felt hindered him during cardiovascular exercise…The doctor conducted a scan that showed Niese’s nasal passageways were obstructed, but that they could be reconstructed to facilitate airflow…The difference in his breathing now, Niese said, is like “night and day.”

Alright, so he can jazzercise a bit longer than he could before and doesn’t have to wear breathe right strips to do it.  Good for him.  But then I started doing a little investigating into his splits and found some interesting numbers with regards to his first 4 innings of work.  Since becoming a full-time starter in 2010, his first inning through the fourth inning has given him a 3.87 ERA to go with a 3.85 K:BB ratio, good for an 8.48 K/9.  Meanwhile, his work in the 5th and 6th innings left him at a 4.65 ERA to go with a 1.40 K:BB ratio and a 6.25 K/9.  Even if we can reasonably expect a pitcher to wear down by the 6th inning, those K:BB ratios are quite drastic.  Given his xFIP has been 3.80 and 3.28 in 2010 and 2011, respectively, I believe we have multiple factors that could lead to a breakout 2012 campaign for Niese.  Even Ricky Nolasco - a pitcher with a similar ADP and the bane of Razzballer’s everywhere despite being a peripheral darling – has maintained a K:BB ratio above 3 for his career in the 5th and 6th inning.  I’m willing to believe that Niese simply never learned how to breathe through his eyelids a la Nuke LaLoosh and is finally going to get over that 5th and 6th inning hump.  Regardless of the Citi field walls moving in, I’m willing to buy in that Grey’s line in the Top 80 starters is his base for the year, with good room for upside.

And with that, this is ONC from Deep League Thoughts reporting for TMZ. Now let’s go find out which baseball career Rihanna will try to ruin next… Back to you, Harvey Levin!

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)