Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago– Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)

Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur were shut down for the year because the peasant Royals want to give Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson a full three days to show their worth.  Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peak under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.  As for Frenchy, his line was 77/20/87/.285/22.  Oh, well, that looks pretty normal– Wait a second, 22 steals?!  Where the eff in the effhole did those come from?  His previous high was 8.  He always failed to take pitches like he needed some ADHD medicine, but now he’s running the bases like it too.  “Sorry, first base coach, whatever your name is, can’t stay at 1st, gotta run, peace!”  That’s Frenchy, and he can’t even stop for a period at the end of sentences; he only has time for commas.  He’s always been a notorious bad ball hitter.  This year Frenchy swung at 41% of balls outside the strike zone, which is actually high for him, and his percentage of balls swung at inside the strike zone was actually down.  Only thing that changed this year, he made more contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  If that stops along with his whacked out of his mind stealing, he may use 2012 to revert to his old ways, so it’ll be hard to give Frenchy my arrondissement.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get into the roundup, I just wanted to announce a very good friend of mine is putting on a one man show in Los Angeles.  If you go see the play, you may just run into yours truly and my significant other — my mustache.  If you can’t make it to Los Angeles or if you’re in Los Angeles but afraid to leave your house, you can buy his book.  Anyway II, the roundup:

Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 21st homer.  Hey, that homer can drink legally!  After Pence sat out for three games with a sore knee, it was good to see him return, unless you had him on your bench like I did.  Sonavabench!

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his 29th, 30th and 31st home runs yesterday.  For the Sox’s sake, it’s too bad he can’t pitch.

Francisco Liriano – 1/3 IP, 5 ER in middle relief.  How’d he go from one of the best arms in the game to mop up duty?  When Dr. James Andrews tells people 9 out of 10 pitchers agree with the good doctor, I think I know which one doesn’t agree.  “I feel like Bruno Mars’s forehead, big and empty!”  That’s Liriano talking through a translator.

Wilson Ramos – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three starts.  I specify his last three starts, because the Nats have been sitting him every other game.  It’s really important to get at-bats for Pudge, whose nickname wasn’t always ironic, and Jesus Flores?  Rhetorical!

Stephen Strasburg – Nats announced he would have an innings limit next year.  The GM said that innings limit has been semi-calculated.  The equation he used was pretty straightforward:  A Reinjured Strasburg = No Job.

Wade Davis – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Nice end to what’s been a pretty terrible season.  His K-rate was atrocious and it wasn’t like he was getting unlucky with his 4.45 ERA.  Usually the third year a starter is in the majors is when their breakthrough comes, which next year will be for Davis, but I don’t have high hopes here.

Jason Bay – Didn’t play Sunday and was pulled from Saturday’s game because of illness.  Illness sounds like it should be managing the Mets.

Nolan Reimold – 2-for-4 with his fourth homer in the last ten games; also he’s hitting .300 over the last week.  He’s either hitting really well recently, or it’s an illusion to get people to draft him again next year.

Robert Andino – 1-for-2 with a steal.  After 136 games, he has 13 steals with 4 coming in the last week.  I don’t get that.  Did he just suddenly realize he’s fast?  Was he auditing a summer class from the University of Phoenix on base stealing and he just passed?  If you have speed, then run.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  On the year, he gave up 59 earned runs in… Guess how many innings.  Wait for it… Here it comes… Wait, where did I put it?… How did it end up in my glove compartment?  Anyway, in 49 2/3 innings.  That gives him the worst single-season ERA in MLB history (10.69).  On the bright side, for the record he beat Halladay’s 10.64 ERA of 2000.  Then again, Halladay was throwing with his left hand that season.

Grady Sizemore – Shut down for the year.  Backdate that to the moment his flash went off in front of a mirror.  Use any definition of the word flash you’d like.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left Saturday’s game with an elbow contusion and didn’t play Sunday.  On a side note, I think Asdrubal should follow Ichiro’s lead and have just Asdrubal on his jersey.  Imagine parents taking their kids to a game and covering their eyes when they see Asdrubal.

Shelley Duncan – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer in September.  I feel sorry for all those that had to high-five him during his torrid month.  He’s always so intense.  Here’s him at a post-game press conference.

Felix Hernandez – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks and was pulled from the game after being hit by a comebacker.  Over the winter, I want a 500 word essay from him about what he did this summer that made me no longer love him.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit a homer in his third straight game, then left due to lightheadedness.  After the game, he said he prefers Amstel Light-headedness.

Matt Holliday – 2-for-7 over the weekend as he returned.  La Russa, wearing a jacket made from veggie burgers, said as long as Holliday’s healthy, he’s going to be out there.  Now it’s a judgment call whether you should play him.  I wouldn’t necessarily go back to him if I had options that were hitting.

Jose Bautista – After crashing into a wall, he stayed in the game for five innings only to then leave with a knee injury.  I think he should be fine.  My mom was right, I could’ve been a doctor.  “But, mom, there’s a whole lot more zeroes in blogging.  Though that’s not zeroes as in money.”

Brett Cecil -  3 1/3 IP, 4 ER and ends the year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Somehow, I’ll find a way to make him seem attractive yet again next year; you just wait and see!

Carlos Gonzalez – As reported here first on Friday after inferring shizz from other sources, CarGo is done for the year.  As I said in the preseason, “He’s a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy.  Those day-to-day things can turn into more.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.   Don’t mess with The ‘Noff.

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his 28th homer.  I’d put $5 on The Other White Meat getting to 30 homers, if I were a betting man.  Okay, if I were a betting man on things I actually know and not just random rolls of a die.

Torii Hunter – 1-for-3 with a steal yesterday, and a homer on Friday and Saturday.  Not the same homer, that would be weird.

Vernon Wells – Slam & legs yesterday and 4 homers in the last 8 games.  You looking at his 25 homers and 9 steals on the year, “Hey, Vernon Wells had a good year?  Who knew?”  You looking at his average, “He hit .220?  Crimey a river, Justin Timberlake.”

Adrian Beltre – 3-for-4 with his 30th homer and 101st RBI while hitting .293.  I don’t get it, is he gonna try to renegotiate his contract?

Ian Kinsler – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a homer and two steals.  Totally just padding his stats to get to 30/30 and I love it.  This is why all players should have to own themselves in an H2H league with 50% of their contract in their fantasy league pot.  I wonder if the union will go for it.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and he’s 7 for his last 13.  Can you tell I don’t want the season to end?  This is like the longest roundup ever.  Bonifacio is hot, moving on…

Ricky Nolasco – 2 IP, 6 ER.  Ends the season with a 4.67 ERA.  Somehow, he’ll be hyped again next year by everyone but me.  “Hey, ESPN analcyst here, and I want you to look at Nolasco’s strikeout to walk ratio.  He’s awesome!”

Clayton Kershaw – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and his 21st win to go along with his 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 248 Ks.  Even with an injured knee, that had Ethier dancing.

Justin Upton – Left the game after being hit in the head by a Lincecum fastball.  Tests are showing no signs of a concussion.  Too bad.  I was hoping he’d return as Jason Bourne and bring down Justin Morneau for trying to kill my fantasy teams.

Stephen Drew to postpone all ballroom dancing classes for six to nine months with a fractured ankle.  His wife Nancy isn’t gonna be happy.  More time for mystery solving!  If you haven’t seen the video of Stephen Drew, I’d wait for it on the big screen in Faces of Death:  The Drew Edition, which will also feature J.D. throwing out his back, knee, shoulder, back again and ‘pulling up short.’  We probably won’t see Stephen again this year, so it’s fine to drop him.  In his place, Cody Ransom, Quad-A/futility infielder.  He has 25 homers in Triple-A this year, and 9 homers in about ten years of on again/off again major league service.  You can probably do better.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wilson Betemit – Castaway Wilson got volleyed to the Tigers yesterday.  Betemit has never received any modicum of respect in his major league career, if I’m using the word modicum correctly.  For the longest time, the Royals would drop the boom with prospect after prospect and Betemit would be MOS — ‘Mit Out Starting job — but now Betemit will take over 3rd base.  Brandon Inge must feel Blind Sided by this.  Maybe he should call Sandra Bullock or Big Mike to campaign for him.  Every bone in your body tells you you shouldn’t own Betemit, but why are you listening to bones?  Is that some voodoo shizz?  If you’re struggling with your corner infidel in deep mixed leagues, Betemit could provide some pop and average.  Of course, don’t drop anyone too worthwhile for him.  Still no respect!

Casper Wells – This was what Leyland said when he sent Wells down, “It’s a crying shame.  He doesn’t deserve to go down.  This one hurts because the kid has done a hell of a job.”  Apparently, the only thing harder than giving up Casper is giving up tobacco.  If only there was a Casper Wells patch!

Duane Below – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He’s a pretty mediocre AL-Only option with a bleh K-rate in the minors.  Plus, Duane Below sounds like a What’s Happening episode where Raj and Rerun lost their friend’s hair pick.  Hey HEY….sob….hey.

Carlos Gomez – Broke his collar bone and will be out for a while.  Maybe Lastings Milledge can work “poppin’ collars like Carlos Gomez” into a song.

Dan Haren – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  I thought we had a deal that someone was going to sneak into Haren’s room and turn the calender back to June?

Clayton Kershaw – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 12 Ks.  He looked better than Lincecum, in both a straight and gay way.

Javy Guerra – Has six straight saves, an ERA of 2.18 and a perma-smile like the Joker.

Andre Ethier – Has 9 homers, zero steals and a .299 average.  Johnny Damon would be embarrassed by that line.

Dustin Ackley – 2-for-4 with his 4th homer in 26 games since he’s been called up.  He’s almost surely going to be overrated next year.  Damn you, half empty glass.

Chris Narveson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Next, he gets the Cubs, then the Astros twice.  That’s a yes, please and thank you.

Jason Vargas – 3 IP, 5 ER.  How very JV of him.  Two straight bad starts, two reasons he should no longer be on your team.

Adam Dunn – Out with knee problems.  Ironically, this year his fantasy owners were forced to take a knee.

John Danks – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Solid start in his return from the Disabled List.  Or as Ozzie calls it, the Puta List.

Brad Lidge – Due back from rehab on Friday.  I’d make sure he comes with return postage for when he gets hurt again.  He won’t be the closer immediately, but the Phils merry-go-round closerousel could pick up in August.

Antonio Bastardo – Charlie Manuel hinted that Bastardo could remain the closer.  I hope Madson enjoyed screwing Charlie Manuel’s daughter (I imagine she looks like Cletus from The Simpsons with boobs) because for some reason he’s in the dog house again.  Or maybe Manuel was saying Madson would be the closer, but calling him a bastardo.

Vance Worley – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He’d be cooler if his name was Van Swirley.  Last time Worley pitched well, I said he shouldn’t be pitching this well, but you should pick him up until he stops pitching this well.  Well, well, well…

Jimmy Rollins – 3-for-5, 4 runs, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  The Cubs were mowed down by Philly — back again! — with a little east coast swing by the J, the I, the M, the M, the Y, y’all!

Michael Martinez – 2-for-5 with 2 steals.  Probably won’t hit over .240 but he has some speed and is playing while Polanco receives an epidural.  Betcha Polanco wishes he chose natural childbirth.

Ryan Dempster – 3 IP, 6 ER as Dempster goes back to the dumpster.

Edwin Encarnacion – 3-for-5, 4 runs, a home run and two steals.  Encarnacion goes through stretches where he gets crazy hot.  Right now, hitting near .450 in the last week with three steals and a homer and 17 for his last 40.  He’s a hot schmotato, ya’ll.

Travis Snider – 2-for-4, 5 RBIs and a home run.  Really shouldn’t be on waivers in any leagues at this point.

Jayson Werth – 3-for-5, and his 11th home run.  According to RCL updater, VinWins, Duffy’s Irish Pub in Washington, D.C. is matching beer prices to Jayson Werth’s average.  3 hits yesterday raised the price to $2.18.  For where I live (Los Angeles), a bar could match Ruth’s lifetime slugging percentage and be a good deal.

Lonnie Chisenhall – 2-for-4 and a home run.  Or as someone on Sportscenter probably said, Lonnie went gonnie.

Freddy Garcia – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  When I see Garcia’s season ERA at 3.21, I get as incredulous as De Niro when Spider talks back to Pesci.

Eduardo Nunez – 1-for-3 with 2 steals.  Now has 13 steals on the year (and 13 errors and 13 strikeouts and 13 times he’s name dropped Jeter to try and get laid).

Joe Nathan – 1 IP, 1 ER.  Still recorded the save, but it’s worth noting he gave up a run.  And noted.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has a season ERA of 1.98 as he went against Jeff Karstens (7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K) and his 2.28 ERA.  To think we paid 20-something dollars for Gallardo in March… Cust frustrated.

Chase D’Arnaud – Now has 7 errors in 21 games played.  More like Chase D’Ball.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs with his 14th and 15th home runs.  Member when I said in April Ellsbury and Gardner were the same player?  I kill myself sometimes.  Literally, I’m sticking my head in the oven.

Ricky Nolasco – 1 1/3 IP, 9 ER vs. the Padres.  San Diego bats haven’t been used this much since Cinco de Mayo.  Not sure if candy came out of Nolasco.

Will Venable – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer as every hitter on the Padres got into the action.  San Diego’s offense yesterday was like Ralphie beating up Farkus.  Months of futility boiling up into an uncontrollable rage.  I just picture Jason Bartlett kicking and screaming, “Fickin’, shmikin…”

Derek Jeter left yesterday’s game with a Grade 1 strain of his calf as reported by ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN News, ESPN U., ESPN Deportes and on the ticker at the bottom of the screen while they aired Mr. 3000 on ABC.  Yes, I’m just as bad for even talking about it.  Hey, pot, what’s up?  Kettle, here.  You black?  Whatever, it was a slow day yesterday in fantasy baseball — shoot, Justin Ruggiano was almost the lead.  Member a few years ago when people were talking about how Jeter could get to 4,000 hits?  I’d be surprised now to see him get to 3,400.  Dorian Gray paint is starting to fade.  You read me?  Yeah, you do.  My guess is Jeter will avoid the DL and make us endure more 3,000 hit talk after he rests his veal for a few days.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Russell Martin – Scratched with back stiffness.  See, I’m usually scratched with back itchiness.

Carlos Carrasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you started him in The House They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built, you deserved this win.  Crazy thing is, Carrasco’s pitching better than his ERA is showing, but, outside of this game, the Ks have been pretty pedestrian.  You ride the lightning in AL-Only leagues; I’d avoid still in mixed leagues.

Justin Ruggiano – 2-for-3 and hitting near .500 in the last week.  Sam Fuld handed off his magic beans to a new past-prime prospect.  So is this on par, ma, for Ruggiano?  Will he melt under the hot lights?  Or will he be solid enough to great?  In Triple-A, Ruggiano had back-to-back years of 15 homers and 23+ steals.  The problem with anyone who’s seeing their first look in the bigs in three years when they’re 29 years old is why.  While why is a question that self help gurus teach to help you keep a conservation going, I don’t particularly want to talk about Ruggiano all that much more.  He’s currently hitting enough to pick up in all leagues, but I don’t think he’s going to keep it going.

Alex Cobb – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  This was a better-than-decent start, but right now it looks like Cobb’s headed to the minors after one more start.  Gary Glitter, “That don’t sound bad at all!”

Brandon Lyon – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Now has 8 earned runs since he returned.  Hey, he looks like his old self!  If someone prematurely dropped Melancon from their team, I’d go ahead and make the grab.

Wandy Rodriguez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  The Wandwagon returned from the DL and got immediately back on the right track.

Brett Anderson – Set to rehab for six weeks but will be reevaluated in three weeks. So that puts his next setback around two weeks away.

Ricky Nolasco – 3 IP, 5 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks and he was pitchslapped by Zach Duke (who took a couple of right crosses too).  I said I wouldn’t touch Nolasco in any league this preseason and I didn’t.  He now sits at a 4.23 ERA and he always seems to push that over 5.  Amazing how much good will he got from one solid year out of five.

Justin Morneau – Time for a daily check-in on this sad robot.  “Tears make me rust!”  That’s Morneau.  He just had an MRI on his wrist.  The Vottomatic comes with titanium wrist joints.  Why’s Morneau having his wrist checked?  He needs to have his head checked.  He probably needs a new operating system.  On Morneau’s player card it says POS:  1B.  The POS is right.

Vicente Padilla – Will miss an extended period of time with neck surgery.  It doesn’t look like he has a neck in this picture of Padilla.

Paul Maholm – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and not the greatest Ks.  You say to me, “Hey, Grey sweet ‘stache, it’s like you have three eyebrows.  Pregunta:  Should I pick up Maholm?”  His ERA will end close to 4 and he has no Ks.  I own him in one H2H league but wouldn’t touch him in most roto leagues.  In H2H, the inevitable terrible start, which is coming, is erased in a week, but in roto you gotta live with your decisions a lot longer.  Wow, I sound like a guidance counselor.

Hunter Pence – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 9th home run.  Now has a 23-game hitting streak.  Or 23 more games than Morneau.

Randy Wolf – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Wolf’s coming in this afternoon’s post about pitchers who are getting lucky, but he was also in the same post last month, so what the FIP do I know?

Jordan Schafer – 2-for-5 with his first home run.  In the past week, he has 6 steals.  He’s an intriguing name in deep leagues.  Just don’t jump out the window until you see how real the fire is.

Vernon Wells – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  As frequent commenter, Terrance Mann, said, “Projections on any significant HRs the rest of the year from HGH Wells are pure science fiction.”

Anthony Bass – 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners (4 BBs), 1 K.  Outside of NL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t touch him yet.  Like Juba’s pizza dough on The Next Food Network Star, he’s too raw.

Charlie Blackmon – 2-for-4 and now has 3 steals in the last three games.  Maybe when he’s in the tunnel to the stadium, Eric Youg Jr. hands him a Pepsi.

Manny Ramirez – The Dodgers owe him $8.3 million in deferred payments.  In related news, the Dodger Dog prices were raised to $17,000 per hot dog.

Welcome to the 3rd annual stab at highlighting the riskiest pitcher propositions in fantasy baseball.  I say ‘stab’ because I can’t claim success just yet.  It’s easier to do that when you don’t compare your results against any baseline (like Mr. Verducci at SI.com).  The fact is that many pitchers will go on the DL and more than half will regress from the previous years (58% of pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches saw their xFIP increase the following year between 2005-2010).wi

My focus is on identifying those who 1) are a favorite for a MLB rotation, 2) pitched in the majors last year anscrd had some level of success, and 3) are more likely to miss a considerable part of the season (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).  Using xFIP helps to separate a true decrease in performance from just bad luck.

Last year proved to be the safest season for starting pitchers in the last six years.  Only 8 pitchers qualified as a ‘dropoff’ and one of those is a technicality (Joba moving to the bullpen).  The other seven were:  Brett Anderson, Doug Davis, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Javier Vazquez.  Josh Beckett had 2,172 pitches and a +0.66 xFIP to barely escape both thresholds.  The counts for the previous 5 years (with roughly the same amount of qualified pitchers) is:  21, 28, 10, 17, and 19.  Since James ‘Dr. Freeze‘ Andrews hasn’t developed an instant Tommy John surgery, I am going to assume this is a statistical fluke and the ‘dropoff’ rate will stay at about 25% per year vs. 2010′s 11% (8 of 70).

With 2010′s 11% dropoff rate, my list of 20 risky pitchers should have been able to identify at least two of the pitchers.  Now, this is somewhat unfair since Marquis and Suppan were toast going into 2010 and I would’ve never picked them but, anyway, see below for the results.  I suppose I should get some credit for nailing three of my first four picks but I wish I added Javier Vazquez (he was on the 2009 list) and Jar-Jar Jurrjens (14.1% sliders in 2009).

Verdict	Number	Players
Dropoff	2 (10%)	#1 Brett Anderson (1,801 pitches) #4 Joba Chamberlain (1,170 pitches)
Dropoff but didn’t technically qualify	1 (5%)	#2 Ross Ohlendorf (1,771 pitches)
Incorrect But Saw Some Legit Dropoff	5 (25%)	#7 Chris Carpenter (+0.46 xFIP increase) #12 Jorge De La Rosa (2,026 pitches) #15 Joel Pineiro (2,306 pitches) #17 Scott Feldman (2,410 pitches, +0.39 xFIP) #18 Ricky Nolasco (2,476 pitches. +0.27 xFIP)
Close to 2009 Performance	9 (45%)	#3 Kevin Correia #5 Randy Wells #8 Jason Hammel #9 Jeff Niemann #10 Gavin Floyd #11 Ryan Dempster #13 Max Scherzer #14 Ricky Romero #19 Tommy Hanson
Made Me Look Bad	3 (15%)	#6 Adam Wainwright (procrastinator) #16 Edwin Jackson (-0.54 xFIP) #20 Josh Johnson (-0.25 xFIP, 2,988 pitches)

* The 11% dropoff rate I quoted is for pitchers with 2,700+ pitches the previous year.  I’ll dip below that threshold to find candidates.  Ohlendorf had 2,693 pitches in 2009.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness are elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups (note all the sliders on this list).  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.   (Note:  Surprisingly enough, there is no evidence that curve balls or cutters add any risk – e.g., pitchers who throw 15+% curve balls have a 23% dropoff rate, slightly below the league average.  But I still tread lightly with young pitchers who throw a lot of curveballs or sliders+curves)
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates through the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 42% chance (based on 2004-2010) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  And there are other variables that I cannot account for – notably pitching mechanics (here are some interesting articles on it by SI.com’s Tom Verducci and Joe Lemire).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one…

#1 – Brett Myers

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,145 -> 3,457 (+2,312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

A ‘Brett’ makes #1 on the list for the 2nd straight year – albeit one with less sex appeal in roto drafts.  This marks a return for Brett Myers who I had #4 on the 2009 list and he responded with an injury-filled 1,145 pitch year.  Last year, he was a workhorse for the Astros (3,457 pitches) and was one of the top 30 ‘best values’ based on his ADP.  But Myers threw 28% sliders and another 20% curveballs to reach that performance level.  Even worse, all his value is tied into those two pitchers as his fastball was worth -14.1 runs vs average as opposed to his slider (+14.7) and curveball (+13.2).  I’d steer clear of him in favor of similarly ranked but safer alternatives.  This is one of those cases where a pitcher treats his elbow like a close family member and that’s not a good thing.

#2 – Bud Norris

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  954 -> 2,726 (+1,772)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  33%

Look at that – two Astro pitchers at the top of the list.  It’s like Brian McNamee’s 2005 appointment book!  Bud Norris’ 4.92 ERA in 2010 doesn’t look great but his 9.25 K/9 IP does.  Combined with his xFIP of 4.12, Norris is the epitome of a promising late-round pitcher.  And while the pitch increase seems dramatic, he did throw 120 minor league IP in 2009.  The catch is that he’s a similar pitcher to Brett Myers.  His fastball has been below league average throughout his short career with his slider being his only above average pitch.  The list of second year pitchers since 2005 coming off  a 2,700 pitch season with 25+% sliders are: Bronson Arroyo (2005), Nate Robertson (2005), Casey Fossum (2006), Daniel Cabrera (2006), Josh Towers (2006), Ian Snell (2007), Armando Gallaraga (2009), Johnny Cueto (2009), Brett Anderson (2010), and Joba Chamberlain (2010).  The only one of those ten pitchers not to see an increase in xFIP is Joba Chamberlain and he was a reliever.  Eight of these 10 failed to reach 3,000 pitches the next year (Arroyo and Snell were the exceptions).  Houston, we may have a problem.

#3 – Francisco Liriano

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,318 -> 3,021 (+703)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  34%

The Liriano of 2006 finally reappeared last year and he had a fantastic season (3.06 xFIP, 9.4 K/9 IP) somewhat obscured by a rough BABIP (.331) that inflated his ERA to 3.62.  His fastball speed has found its way above 93 MPH after being at 90-91 MPH in 2009-2010.  It’s hard not to look at him and not think of Johan Santana.  That’s the problem, though.  He may be a diminutive Venezuelan lefty in a Minnesota Twin uniform with a similar repertoire as Johan (fastball, slider, changeup) and they may both enjoy a 7th inning arepa but that’s where the similarities end.  During his dominating prime (2004-2008), Johan had an above average fastball and an all-world changeup (averaged +20 wCH).  His slider was his third pitch, both in effectiveness and frequency.  As Santana’s fastball went from 94 MPH down to 89/90 MPH, his fastball and changeup both suffered and have turned him from a great to a good pitcher.  Liriano, on the other hand, depends on his slider for his relative greatness.  His fastball has been slightly below league average in his career (that’s discounting his -25 wFB in 2009) and his changeup has been only slightly above average.  His slider was a +23 runs in 2006 and +19 runs in 2010 and its effectiveness vs. the fastball/changeup explain why he throws it at such a high clip (37.6% in 2006, 33.8% in 2010).  Until Liriano proves his arm can handle back-to-back years with that high of a slider rate, I consider him very risky.  You can say I’m leery-a-no.

#4 – Anibal Sanchez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,476 -> 3,234 (+1,758)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  25%

Anibal Sanchez posted his first full season with the Marlins in the 5th year since his 2006 debut.  To give some perspective, he was a Marlin rookie the same year as Hanley Ramirez (both were part of the Josh Beckett trade).  He was a solid 2010 sleeper (a year later that I predicted) with 13 wins, a 3.55 ERA (1.34 WHIP), and a solid 7.3 K/9 IP.  The red flag with Sanchez – besides his past injury history – is that he throws 25% sliders (his most effective pitch) and another 10% curveballs.  His fastball was about average last year so it’s possible that he can reduce his reliance on breaking balls but I would expect a drop in K-rate and xFIP if he does.

#5 – Ervin Santana

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,300 -> 3,561 (+1,261)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  37%

Ervin Santana and Brett Myers are like the Ervin Johnson and Larry Bird of slider-dependent pitchers who have not shown the magic to stitch together two healthy slider-heavy seasons in a row (Myers’ 2003-2006 run was before he started relying on a slider).  Santana’s 17 win 2010 season conjures up memories of 2008 until you see that his K-rate went down (8.8 to 6.8 per 9 IP) and his BB rate went up (1.9 to 3.0).  So the upside is not as high and he still throws a s**t-ton of sliders.  Oh, and his wFB was -13.6 while his wSL was +14.3.  Pass.

#6 – C.J. Wilson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,299 -> 3,441 (+2,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Everyone who saw CJ Wilson’s successful 2010 season coming, please raise your hand.  While it’s difficult to find a pitcher who successfully converted to an SP after 5 years in relief (Wilson was a SP in the minors), there are a handful of cases where a reliever became a valuable SP contributor the next year:   Derek Lowe (2001) Adam Wainwright (2008), Justin Duchscherer (2008), Ryan Dempster (2009), Todd Wellemeyer (2009), and Brett Myers (2009).  Dempster fared okay his second year as a starter.  Wainwright had a finger issue.  Derek Lowe saw his ERA go up nearly two runs and his xFIP went up +0.44.  Wellemeyer collapsed (+0.72 xFIP).  Myers only managed 1,145 pitches.  Duchscherer didn’t pitch in the majors the next year.  Not a very good track record.  The fact Wilson threw 3,441 pitches in the regular season AND a full slate of playoff games can’t help this situation.  (see 2009 Cole Hamels).  CJ could end up standing for Clubhouse Jester this year.

#7 – Ian Kennedy

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  28 -> 3,170 (+3,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  5%

The ex-Yankee prospect finally delivered on his promise with a solid 3.80 ERA/1.201 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 IP while staying healthy (3,170 pitches, 190 IP) after an injury-plagued 2009.  Another positive is Kennedy’s balanced pitch mix where his league-average fastball (59% of pitches at -0.8 wFB) is complimented by an effective changeup (17% of pitches for a wCH of +16.4) and curveball (17% of pitches for a wCB of +6.3 runs).  If Kennedy can manage another full season like last year, I wouldn’t even consider him for future lists.  But 2nd year pitchers are risky propositions as they haven’t proven they could handle the year-over-year strain – this is especially true for a pitcher who virtually took the prior year off (23 IP in AAA/majors in 2009).  He should come at a cheap price in drafts so I wouldn’t worry about him too much – just try not to pair him with anyone else in the top 10.

#8 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,670-> 3,549 (+879)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 20%

Carpenter was #7 on last year’s list for the same reason he’s on the list again – I don’t trust any pitcher who throws over 40% breaking pitches (he also throw 27% curveballs).  Given Carpenter’s injury history, it’s incredulous that he threw 200 more pitches than his younger, also breaking pitch-obsessed teammate Adam Wainwright.  Carpenter’s regression from 2009 (ERA from 2.24 to 3.22, xFIP from 3.38 to 3.84) and his pedestrian K-rate (6.8 K/9) should mean he comes at a reduced price this year vs. in 2010.  But I wouldn’t draft him with Bea Arthur’s d**k…I mean, I wouldn’t screw him with any of my draft picks or auction dollars….aw, you know what I mean.

#9 – Phil Hughes

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,459-> 3,007 (+1,548)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

I apologize to Yankee fans who fear that Hughes’ presence on this list is a sign that we have been acquired by ESPN and are now Yankee-haters.  Not the case.  But read my commentary for CJ Wilson (#6 on the list) regarding the history of converted relievers having back-to-back healthy years.  It is almost as imposing as the Phil Hughes bar in Upper East Side New York that my friend Schultz loves so much.  I love Hughes’ maturity, his pitch repertoire (93 MPH fastball, cutter, curve, changeup), and his run support.  I’ll love him more in 2012 when – either way – he’ll be a less risky proposition.

#10 – Brian Duensing

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,322-> 1,885 (+563)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 20%

If you tell me that you have everything you want and you draft Duensing, well, you don’t get me nor my slightly obscure Beatles references.  I’m digging pretty deep for Duensing since he only threw 1,885 pitches as he was on the Twins-patented “start the season in relief, become an SP midway through the year” plan (see Santana 2003, Liriano 2006).  Duensing managed a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA in 130 IP last year – giving him the preseason lead for the 4th slot in the Twins starting rotation.  A cursory glance at Duensing’s advanced stats provides compelling reasons to avoid him on draft day (5.37 K/9, an xFIP of 4.10).  But that stat line isn’t far off from what you’d get from tolerable endgame playes like Pavano or Buehrle.  The reason he is on this list is he had to throw 20% sliders to achieve that unimpressive K-rate and it was his most valuable pitch (wSL of +14.3).  His minor league history shows a similarly unimpressive K rate so there is absolutely no margin for error with this guy.  Maybe he can be Buerhle 2.0 but it’s more likely he’ll be Done.0 at some point this season.

#11 – Brandon Morrow

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,254-> 2,523 (+1,269)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 15%

There are few things more attractive on draft day than a young pitcher with a crazy K rate (10.95 K/9!!!!) and an ADP greater than 100.  It’s so attractive that you can’t pass up a guy like Morrow if you get him at the right price.  That’s why you love him today…but will you love Brandon to-Morrow (it’s a pun and a lyrical reference!)?:  1) 2010 was his first full-season as an MLB SP, 2) He had pitched relief for much of the previous year, and 3) His slider is his most effective pitch and he throws it 15% of the time.  So draft him hoping he’s a lasting treasure but don’t be surprised if 2010 was just a moment of pleasure.

#12 – Mat Latos

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  869-> 2,965 (+2,096)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 23%

This one hurts more than Morrow.  Latos was awesome last year.  He had four pitches that were above average as far as runs allowed (Fastball, Slider, Curve, Change) with the Fastball/Slider combo ranking in the top 15 (respectively) amongst all starting pitchers.  His 2.92 ERA is mostly legit (3.36 xFIP) and his K-rate is above 1 K per inning (9.21 K/9).  Given he plays in Petco National Park, he is a potential top 10 pitcher for 2011.  But he hits all the dropoff criteria so, if you draft him, pair him with a safer option.

#13 – Jhoulys Chacin

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  211-> 2,304 (+2,093)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 14%

The player with the fragranciest name west of Aramis is an interesting case study.  His pitch count increase is misleading as he pitched 100 IP in AA the previous year and 35 AAA IP in 2010.  If pitch count isn’t an issue, why in the age of Ubaldo and the humidor would a Rockie pitcher with a K-rate above 1 per inning (9.04 K/9) make the list?  While Chacin may have a similar pitch mix to Ubaldo (both throw 25-30% breaking pitches), Chacin throws 4-5 MPH slower than Ubaldo (96 MPH fastball vs. 91 MPH fastball).  This is one of the reasons why Ubaldo’s fastball was the 2nd most valuable in baseball last year and Chacin’s was league average.  Colorado is a cruel stadium for pitchers depending on breaking pitches (see Darryl Kile).  Unless Chacin can learn to throw harder from Ubaldo or to throw more grounders from Aaron Cook, he’s a riskier play than you might otherwise think.

#14 – Jason Vargas

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,477-> 3,020 (+1,543)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 9%

Despite having the perfect name for a grade school bully (sounds like Scott Farkus), Vargas is like a young Leftosaurus.  His fastball averages 87 MPH and he throws a ton of changeups (29%) though it’s possible this percentage is inflated by miscategorization of his fastball.  Vargas found the perfect home in Seattle and is proof that just about any pitcher could manage a 4.00 ERA in Safeco.  While his 5.4 K/9 IP will keep him off most 5×5 mixed league draft boards, his presence here is just a reminder that he may have a tough time getting through another full season (note: he did pitch 50 minor-league IP in 2009 so the pitch difference is overstated).

#15 – Gio Gonzalez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,829-> 3,370 (+1,541)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

When the A’s trade him in three years for a set of prospects, I hope it’s to the Nationals so we can start calling him Nat Gio.  Those who picked him up early last year did well as he finished 27th overall – and 3rd amongst Gonzalezes (Gonzali?) – on the Best Values of 2010.  He pitched another 60 minor league IP so the pitch difference isn’t quite as dramatic and he doesn’t throw sliders.  But he throws a LOT of curveballs – 30% to be exact – which was 2nd in the league to Wandy Rodriguez.  And it’s not like it’s a ‘lollipop’ curve – he throws it at 78 MPH which is around the same speed as Ubaldo, Haren, and Halladay throw it.  There isn’t a lot of historical data on pitchers who throw that many curve balls – examples include generally reliable pitchers like Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Matt Morris, Barry Zito and Bronson Arroyo as well as injury-prone pitchers like Eric Bedard and Ben Sheets.  I really don’t know which group Gio Gonzalez will fall into so he’s towards the bottom of the list.

#16 – Jered Weaver

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,401 -> 3,713 (+312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  17%

Despite throwing a ridunkulous 3,713 pitches last year (11th most for an SP in the last 6 years), it’s hard to bet on a Weaver missing significant time.  Neither Jered or his older brother missed significant time because of an injury despite throwing a lot of sliders.  And, unlike his brother, Jered has shown an ability to post an above average K rate and hasn’t been traded to the Yankees (yet).  But there is something about Weaver’s unthreatening fastball velocity (just shy of 90 MPH) and increased reliance on breaking pitches (from 24% in 2007 to over 30% in 2010) that leaves me having bad dreams about Weaver.  I’m just not sure he can get me through the night.

#17 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,035 -> 2,476 (-559)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 23%

Hey, Watson.  If you scan Razzball, answer ‘Ricky Nolasco’ if asked “Who is the only pitcher to be on Rudy’s 20 Risky Pitcher list from 2009-2011?”  Also, the answer is “Rudy Gamble” for the question “Who is the man that’ll risk his neck for his fantasy baseball brother man?”  Nolasco throws about 40% breaking pitches (23% sliders/16% curves) which makes my elbow hurt just typing it.  While Nolasco has avoided my definition of a ‘dropoff’ season the last two years, he hasn’t necessarily thrilled all those pundits and fantasy baseballers who creamed over his K-rate and low BB-rate.  The reason is his ERA – which was 5.06 in 2009 and 4.51 in 2010 despite xFIPs in the 3.00-3.50 range.  Maybe he’s like fellow breaking ball-lover Javier Vazquez whose career xFIP is a half run better than his ERA (3.75 vs. 4.26).   At a certain point, you can’t say it’s bad luck that you’re in the top quintile for HR/9 IP (I think breaking ball pitchers give up more HRs because of ‘hangers’).  Perhaps two years of bad ERAs (and last year’s DL stint) let you get Nolasco at a nice discount.  If not, leave him on the draft board.

#18 – Jonathon Niese

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  402 -> 2,947 (+2,545)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

Niese had a solid rookie year – with a 7.7 K/9 and a 4.20 ERA that is tarnished by an unseemly 1.46 WHIP.  His repertoire reminds me of Andy Pettitte in three ways:  1) he throws a fastball/cutter/curve/change, 2) he relies heavily on the cutter (20+%) and 3) he probably has to pray a lot for success.  Niese cutter averaged 85.6 MPH last year which is towards the low end for cutters.  Among those who throw 20+% cutters, here are a few examples:  Halladay averages 91.4 MPH (freak!), Jon Lester averages 89.7 MPH (inspiration!), Brian Bannister averages 88.1 MPH (smart!), and Dan Haren at 86.4 MPH (eh!).  Pettitte got by at 82-83 MPH last year but threw it faster in his prime.  So if Niese experiences any loss in velocity coming off his first full season, whatever effectiveness he had in 2010 will likely disappear.

#19 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,816 -> 1,801 (-1,015)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 31.3%

Given Anderson was a ‘dropoff’ in 2010, he doesn’t technically qualify as a candidate for 2011.  But you are still going to draft him assuming he is going to give you near 200 IP so he is worth including in the list.  Brett Anderson was a pundit favorite going into last year but his slider rate scared me enough to give him the #1 risky pitcher spot.  After missing about a third of his starts last year, I think he still has residual hype from 2009 to fuel hype around this being a bounceback year.  I say this because no one loves bouncebacks more than Grey and he kept on IMing “He’s sexy.  Draft him!” during our last auction draft.   But take a look at his 2010 results.  In 112 IP, he had a 6.01 K/9 IP.  Blech.  His xFIP was 3.75 but his ERA was 2.80 thanks to an unsustainable strand rate a very low HR rate.  Yes, he’s got great control (1.76 BB/9) but that’s not enough to make him an ace.  This is with throwing 31.3% sliders which is 7th in the majors for pitchers above 110 IP (three above him are on this list:  Norris, Liriano, and Ervin Santana).  I’d maybe take a late round flier on him or bid $2 in a mixed league.  But I wouldn’t invest much more in him until he’s shown he can handle 200 IP with a slider rate that high.

#20 – Clay Buchholz

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,521-> 2,810 (+1,289)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 19%

I don’t particularly hate Buchholz in 2010 despite the fact that he hits all three criteria and – based solely on his ESPN commercials and this photo - he gives off a Beckett-like douchiness.  But I just don’t like 2nd year starters who throw a number of breaking pitches (he also throws a curve 9% of the time).  His 17 wins and 2.33 ERA look awfully good but, like Anderson, he had very low HR and high strand rates.  His xFIP was 4.20 which, coupled with his 6.2 K/9 is just so-so.  He throws fast enough (94 MPH fastball) that he could take a step up in 2011 but I wouldn’t pay market price for him.