Fantasy Baseball Advice

Sometimes getting to the World Series takes more than just talent.  Sometimes it takes a little psychological machinations to make it happen.  Sabathia brings the Brewers a talented co-ace with Sheets (bit of advice:  Sabathia was gassed at the end of the year - let him pitch a few 6 inning starts).  Durham provides them a motivational cattle prod for Rickie Weeks to step it up. The Brewers can say this was all about improving their depth but, really, do they make this trade if Weeks wasn’t hitting .216?  And it’s not like the Brewers are unafraid to make midseason adjustments.  Remember when they traded for F-Cord after Turnbow started to Turnbad? For his sake (and his FLB owners), Weeks better get hitting. When you think you can win the pennant, you put egos and reputations on ice. Remember the 1996 Yanks?  They were starting Charlie Hayes and Cecil Fielder over Wade Boggs and Tino Martinez at times. It’s all about production. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell - Coughed up 3 ER in 1 IP. The other day 4 ER in 1 IP. Bud Black realizes the pain felt by San Diego that comes with every Trevor Hoffman 9th inning blown save so he’s now taught Heath Bell how to blow saves in the 7th or 8th.

St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus is hitting .284 and hits HRs every day.  Aaron Miles just went 3-for-5 with 3 runs and 4 RBI.  Let’s put it this way - if Larussa had the dice in his hand at a Craps table, I’m putting all my chips on the Come line.

Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 5 ER. When walking outside in SF make sure you keep an eye on the sky, Lincecum’s falling to earth. And there’s nothing worse than getting Lincecum falling in your face. (And that’s a different Come line.)

Aaron Cook - Notched his 12th victory with 7 IP, 3 ER and an under one WHIP. I cannot believe I still have this schmohawk on my team in a ten team league, but he’s been better than I expected. I think the way he pitched in the All-Star game really showcased what he does best — get guys to groundout.

Kelly Shoppach - Now with 8 HRs…one for every million unhappy V-Mart fantasy baseball drafters.

Brian Wilson - A one inning Kazaam outing with 2 ER.  Wilson owners do not smile.  Some even make pet sounds.

Jaime Garcia - Gave up a home run to Cha Seung Baek. Cha Seung Baek you’ve just won a new Hyundai! Garcia is high on walks, decent Ks, very young. Deep league flier and matchups — like yesterday against the Padres, which didn’t turn out that swell. See first sentence of this entry.

Jose Guillen - Out of the starting lineup since the All-Star break with back spasms but contributed on Sunday with a SB and run in a pinch-hitting gig.  Assuming he doesn’t throw a tantrum and hurt himself, he should be a go in the next day or so.  Given he only has 1 RBI in his last 8 starts, keep him on the bench if you have a safer option.

Brandon Lyon - Two straight bad outings. This time, he spared Haren and took out his wrath on Webb.  Who misses Valverde?

Austin Kearns - 3-for-5 and scored 5 times in the rout against Atlanta, finally giving fantasy owners (all 16 of them) the right type of runs.

Mark Teixeira - 2 HRs in a losing cause.  Speak of losing causes, when are the Braves going to trade him?  Maybe the White Sox?

Jacoby Ellsbury - 0-for-5. The law firm of Jacoby Ellsbury just got served (you’re on your own figuring out that mixed metaphor). About .250 over the last two months, which I’d accept if he were stealing bags. He has one in July and it came on the first day of the month.

Edinson Volquez - 5 IP, 4 ER and he actually got lucky or there would’ve been more earned runs. You can’t say I didn’t warn you that the end of the brilliance was near.

Scott Baker - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8 Ks and was outpitched by Vicente Padilla who moved to 11-5. When a reporter asked Padilla if he thought he had a shot at 20, Padilla began to cackle at the absurdity of the thought. Latest reports confirm that he is still cackling.

Erik Bedard - Bedard out until August. Glass is half full, that’s only ten days away. Half empty, soon he’ll be out for the season.

Roy Oswalt - To the 15-day DL with a hip abductor strain. I wanted someone to take us through this to better understand how quickly Oswalt could return, so I asked the one person I know with hip problems. Grey’s Grandma, “A hip abductor strain? I think that’s the same thing Milldred got when she shouted Bingo. Supposedly, she didn’t even really have Bingo. She thought the Father said B-4, but he said “before.” Real shame to get something like a hip injury on a falsie. Have you seen my reading glasses? I put them next to the TV Guide and now I can’t find them. I wanted to do the crossword.”

Manny Ramirez and his brother from another, Aramis, are taking the summer off as planned. If we get in our “Way Back Machine,” we see back in December of ‘07 that I said to look away from Manny. This was before the reports that he was in the best shape of his life and the Sons of Sam Horn turned the media heat up on the hype. What did I say to that? Bologna.  If I may paraphrase myself, I basically said Manny’s Manny and he’s not changing his stripes for an extra two million on a contract. In addition to that, Manny could have a big World Series game and get the extra two million from HankenStein and go play in the Bronx. He knows that. So Manny may get that Xbox Live Clause in his new contract and not even do anything until October. I’m sure Big Papi and him have discussed this at length. Papi, “Manny, you know we can phone in the season and produce in the postseason and be hailed as the best ever clutch performers.” Manny, “Papi, sometimes I get the urge to spork Youk in the neck. Is that weird?” As for Aramis Ramirez, well, he’s in a similar boat, but not an altogether similar point in his career. Aramis could coast until the postseason and the Cubs should make it in a walk. Frankly, I feel like they should move the Cubs to the NL East and close up the Central for the summer, but that’s another story. So will Aramis coast? I’m not convinced. Aramis has proven he loves to hit when the chips have already been eaten (or fill-in some other mixed metaphor). Late last year, Aramis Ramirez knocked the cover off the ball and I could see it happening again. So my advice is Sell on Manny and Buy on Aramis — Ramirez that is. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Masa Kobayashi - Joe Borowski is out. As I said yesterday in the forums, Kobayashi, Betancourt then Perez, in that order. Cleveland, as a team, has 14 saves on the year. That doesn’t mean they will only have fourteen on the other side of 81 games, but it could. Caveat Kobayashi, Betancourt and Perez.

J.R. Towles - Mentioned him yesterday. If you need a catcher, he’s on waivers in your mixed league. It’s a flier, people. Don’t drop Matt Holliday for him.

Scott Linebrink - Bobby Jenks is reporting soreness in his back. Could lead to nothing, could lead to a DL-stint — ready, set, vulture! You grab Linebrink because you can’t get enough saves, you greedy person you.

Chris Davis - I just wanna keep talking and talking and talking about Chris Davis, don’t you? Oh, mercy, mercy me. Does he have 50 home runs yet? I originally compared him to Dunn. Ain’t that apt? (BTW, “Ain’t that apt?” is the non-sequitur saying I’m putting on my first t-shirt line. If one of ya’ll steals it, so help me…)

Rickie Weeks - I believe in slow walks on the beach, especially in Wildwood, Point Pleasant or Belmar. I believe Hawaii offers Spam, shaved ice and not much else. I believe anything seasoned properly would be delicious, including dogshit. I believe in reading movie reviews after I’ve seen the movie. I believe Jamie Kennedy is a terrible person, but worse of all, unfunny. I believe the only day I wasn’t nostalgic for yesterday was the day I was born and, finally, I believe in Rickie Weeks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Salty is catching more or less on most days and he hasn’t hit at all to his potential, but if you’re carrying Navarro still, you should be looking at him, because Saltimbocca can be tasty when he’s at the plate (<—-forced!).

SELL

Rich Harden - Not sure who you’re selling this guy to and he’s too good to drop, but the latest news from Harden’s camp (if he were, ya know, to have a camp) is that Harden’s going through a dead arm period and that’s why his fastball has been, um, less fast. (Isn’t it weird how his dead arm period is better than his injured arm period? You would think the opposite would be true. Or at least I would think it, because I just did.)

Eric Byrnes - Wasn’t that long ago that I told you to Buy. Well, the injury returned and now he might be gone for the season. Hopefully he can make it to Fox’s postseason broadcast team. *fingers sarcastically crossed*

Mark Buehrle - I’ve mentioned how I added him a month or so ago. He’s currently on the top of my “Most Likely to Get Dropped After He Gets Inevitably Beaten Badly” list.

Jeff Keppinger - I could’ve put Jerry Hairston Jr. there, but Keppinger’s name is more incendiary (Word of the Day). These guys seem like they’re falling into a time share. This hurts both of their value.

Clint Barmes - Deer meat sees your hot start and raises you a 4-for-21 slump and Omar Quintanilla.

Pedro Martinez - It’s with regret his name appears here. I loved Pedro. He was a triple threat — flat-out incredible pitcher, an entertaining interview subject and he carried a dwarf around with him. This… This Mets pitcher isn’t him.

Nate McLouth - Eric Karabell told you he would be the fantasy MVP. Seriously. I think ESPN even charges for this shizz. (I get it for free.) Right now, I picture Hater Bell rocking a Malcolm X hat and listening to Mobb Deep as he prepares to put Karabell on blast. Karabell, take these words and think ‘em through or the next rhyme I write might be about you…

In the last few days, a dark cloud moved over Razzball. Rudy just traded for Weeks, Wainwright hit the DL and I had to sit through Sex and the City, the Movie. Hopefully, my masculinity returns before Weeks. Does anyone remember Weeks coming back quickly from injury? Ever? Okay, Rickie Weeks, Rocco Baldelli and Chipper Jones get onto your cross country flight, do you get off? It’s like Weeks should be on the 15-day Activated List, then when he’s injured he’s taken off the Activated list. Makes more sense to me. Less paperwork. I can’t imagine he returns before the All-Star Break. There’s always the Alex(e)i Twins. I’ll mention someone later that I think you should look at, too. (Hint: His Dad has Ernie Whitt’s phone number.) As for Wainwright, I really hope this is just a matter of him missing three starts then returning fine. My gut says that might not be the case. At least, I hope that’s my gut. It’s either a hairy bellybutton or I’ve grown a vagina from seeing SATC. Mercy me, I abbreviated it SATC! Oh my God, I said mercy me. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Ryan Zimmerman - Says he thinks he can play through his shoulder tear. I think he says this all the way up to next April, then he reinjures it next year and finds himself having surgery that has him out until 2010. Ryan, “I’m completely operational, and all my circuits are functioning perfect!”

Jerry Hairston - Fractured thumb, will be out at least a month. Time to make other MI plans. (Or IM snalp, if you’re dyslexic. We care here at Razzball!)

Ken Griffey Jr. - 600th! I was kinda surprised the Reds didn’t trade Griffey as he was taking the field after he hit the home run. I guess they want to dedicate a street to him back in Cincy first, then trade him next week to the AL.

Jay Bruce - He’s showing that penchant for striking out (7 times in last three games) that everyone (maybe just me) tried to warn you about.

Edinson Volquez - Jose aka Edison aka Edinson was very wild again and only effectively so because it was the Marlins. He does have a certain swagger to him that I do appreciate. Now if only he would grow a mustache.

Jose Guillen/Nick Swisher/Mark Reynolds - Said yesterday these guys were insanely hot right now. They all homered yesterday, Swisher twice. Should not be on any league’s waivers.

Josh Barfield - Was just called back up to replace Asdrubal (BTW, WebMD has good information for you, if you suffer from Asdrubal). If you lost Hairston or Weeks, Barfield is worth a flier. At future family functions, Jesse may not have to keep making up excuses for what Josh has been up to since last year. “Yeah, well, he’s thinking about going back to school. This place called…. University of Phoenix.”

Matt Holliday - Has torn up pitching in his minor league rehab. Get him in there immediately.

Mike Mussina - He could pitch back to back Vander Meer’s and I wouldn’t pick him up.

Mariano Rivera - Mo Knows Nothing, Mo Better Get Better, Mo Blues, Mo Better Meaty Meat Burger, Mo Losses Than Royals… Sorry, I was just trying to figure out tomorrow’s NY Post headline.

Matt Cain - I forget if I’ve put anyone in Cain as a Buy Low, but I will. I like him a lot and have been waiting for signs. I think yesterday was a sign.

Joe Saunders - Joe Meet Correction. Correction, you know Joe.

Dioner Navarro’s batting in the .370s. Crapoli’s got ten home runs. Olivo’s not missing Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much I thought he would. JR Towles seems at least a year away. AJ Pierzynski’s doing well — for him. Benjie Molina’s doing well — for Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez is doing well for Nick Punto.  I’ve split my teams between Navarro, Crapoli, Olivo and McCann. So far the team that has struggled most offensively is McCann. “Well, ain’t that the weirderiest of things, Grey?” Not really. And weirderiest isn’t a word. I overspent on McCann costing the rest of my team. Moral of the story. Punt catcher aka trade away any catcher that can fetch you something. So your homework assignment is to trade away Victor Martinez. If someone believes he’s going to turn it around, then turn them around, bend them over and… Well, get a piece for your team that you need. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Rickie Weeks -His current 40 runs, 7 HR, and 9 SB are comparable with Upton and Phillips. His 19 RBI are a casualty of hitting 1st on an NL team. While he hit .235 last year, he’s improved all his fundamentals, his K rate is down from 28% to 21%, but his BABIP is .229, really low for a guy his speed. He should be able to hit at least .260 the rest of the way. Assuming, of course, he stays healthy. His .201 average lets you buy low. (BTW, if those numbers above spun your head a little, just take our word for it. He’s due.)

Jeremy Guthrie - 12 starts, 10 are Quality Starts. “Well, jeez, Grey, that’s a fluke, right?” Last year, he had an ERA of 3.70 in 175 IP. Don’t make me try and guess your password and pickup Guthrie for you.

Prince Fielder - Sure, the only thing up this year is his BBs. (That’s Boca Burgers, not walks.) So what are you worried about? He’s not fat enough to hit home runs? As Richard Simmons might say, “He’s got saddlebags like I have handbags, girlfriend!”

Alex Gordon - I was really counting on him coming out the gate hitting to his ability. Well, that didn’t happen, so if you don’t have him, I’d go out and get him because he had a solid 2nd half last year.

James Shields - They took the “Devil” out of their name. You don’t have to be scared of them anymore.

Chone Figgins - I don’t like all speed guys personally, but I also ask for three plates because I don’t like my condiments mixing. You gonna do everything I do? I know Figgins’s DL’d for his legs. I also know his owners are considering dropping him and would take just about anything for him. If you have an open DL spot, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t make a run at him. Just know you may have to sit on him for three weeks to a month, but it’s a long season. That burst of speed in July may be exactly what you need.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Another sophomore (the “o” is silent, like when you make love to your woman — oofa!) that is struggling more than I would’ve liked. But he came on (your woman while you were playing fantasy baseball– ouch!) last year, and can do it again.

Justin Huber - Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Jorge Campillo - Left his last start with a finger boo-boo, so I was going to leave him off The List, but I’m mentioning him so you keep an eye on him for his next start.

Dan Wheeler - I’ll reenact a comment from late March, “The Nats say Cordero will be back next week, should I bother with Rauch?”

SELL

Joba Chamberlain - Expectations are unrealistically high. When everyone’s zigging, what do you do? Zag, man, zag. Don’t, obviously, trade him for Tony Pena Jr. and a walk-on part on Gossip Girl.

Jay Bruce - If you got him off waivers and your offense is already stacked, you could move him for a very valuable pitcher. Bruce probably won’t bat .500 for the rest of the year. Cust kayin’.

Conor Jackson - Mark Grace, who I think is the best color man currently working, watches Conor and says, “He looks a lot like me.” Gracie’s got a point.

James Loney - Gracie looks at Loney and he says, “Loney wishes he were me.”

Ryan Ludwick - The Queen’s Assassin aka Vincent can hit 25 home runs. He’s at 13. You do the math.

Carlos Gonzalez - I popped a zit into my bathroom mirror and it spelled out, “Good prospect, but little light on the seasoning. Has value in AL-only.”  What other fantasy baseball ‘pert oozes this kind of knowledge?

Adrian Gonzalez - He trends to be a 1st half player, but he doesn’t have enough trends that support me selling him for fifty pence on the pound. Get value, or hold onto him.

Ben Sheets - “Maybe I didn’t say this aloud to all of youse, but the guy can easily” search that phrase on Google and you’ll see why I’m saying to sell. BTW, in that post you find, I’m remarkably brilliant. Prescient to a tee. Mustachioed to a fault. Only the David Murphy and Justino German blurbs seem slightly off and let’s be real, neither of those things really hurt you much. *pats self on back*  Self replies, “Don’t touch me.”

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Thanks to Rudy for your advice in the comments on Sunday; this query’s a bit bigger, thought I’d submit it to Ask the ‘Perts. Any thoughts appreciated, sorry I tend to go on a bit.

I’ve got a pretty simple question, but it’s a like a Russian doll that keeps opening up more questions: What do you think of Jimmy Rollins’s speed value coming back?

If you think he’ll be fine, you can stop reading.

If not….

I’ve built my offense for balance, with Weeks, Rollins, and Markakis providing regular steals, Berkman(!) and Hermida chipping in occasionally, and Ellsbury & Pierre giving me options if I’m in a tight spot. Is it worth trying to maintain that balance when one of my biggest SB-threats may be reduced to a power-hitting SS?

I can probably still flip Markakis + Weeks for David Ortiz and Robinson Cano (and maybe a SP upgrade, say DiceK to Felix), use Ellsbury as a chip to upgrade power or  pitching as necessary, and try to own HR/RBI/XBH (plus maybe AVG + R if I’m lucky).

In terms of pitching, depending on how many good starts I’ve got, I’m currently flipping between trying for L/ERA/WHIP, and (if that doesn’t work) throwing everything I’ve got against the wall and hoping W’s, SV’s and K’s stick. I figure if I can upgrade to one more top-tier starter and another closer, I can own L/ERA/WHIP, with saves a little better than a coin-flip (This league uses 3 pitchers/day, no differentiation between SP/RP, 25 inning minimum). One advantage to getting rid of my speed-options on the bench is having more space for speculative RPers, and space to stream should my elite starters shit the bed, or if I’m facing the team that starts Peavy/Beckett/Halladay.

So, what are your thoughts on focusing on dominating certain categories (plus a little roster flexibility) vs. overall strength (but no flexibility)? It seems easy on paper to take 6 categories each week and hope for at least one tie, but it’s a pretty damn slim margin of error.

Full details:
12 team daily mixed league, 20 player roster, 25 innings minimum/week, no limit on player moves; 1 player/position on offense plus Util; 3 Pitchers (SP or RP).

R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB/XBH
W/L/ERA/SV/WHIP/K

Current ‘Balanced’ roster:
C Victor Martinez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Felipe Lopez
3B R. Zimmerman
OF L. Berkman
OF N. Markakis
OF J. Hermida
Util Conor Jackson

Bench
J. Dye
J. Ellsbury
J. Pierre
[J. Rollins DL]

D. Matsuzaka
C. Zambrano
Javier Vazquez
C. Buchholz
J. Weaver
R. Betancourt
B. Wilson
S. Casilla

Proposed Lineup:
Victor Martinez
David Ortiz
Robinson Cano
Zimmerman
JRoll
L. Berkman
J. Hermida
J. Dye/upgrade
C. Jackson/Adrian Gonzalez (whoever isn’t traded)
Backup power bat (Votto, M. Bradley, M. Alou currently available)

C. Zambrano
F. Hernandez/B. Webb/C. Hamels (via trade)
J Vazquez
Betancourt
Brian Wilson
Closer (via trade)
S. Casilla
C. Qualls (FA)
Streamer/speculative RP
Streamer

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I don’t think there’s one way to build a team.  My goal is to be competitive in all stats (too hard to win and punt a category - at least in non-H2H leagues).  So I just look for best value and, if i find enough of it, I end up w/ some flexibility.

Markakis/Weeks for Ortiz/Cano is a good trade in my book.  Tough to give up Markakis but OF are devalued in a 3 OF vs. 5 OF league more than 1B w/o a CI.  Ortiz ranks higher on my Point Shares - in draft terms, Ortiz is a high-2nd round in my book and Markakis is a 3rd/4th round pick.  Cano hasn’t looked good this year but seems to be a solid bounceback candidate.  And he’s ranked higher than Weeks.  So, yeah, I’d make that trade and move A-Gonz to UTIL (Conor Jackson is bench-worthy).

I’m not sure I mentioned it in my first reply/post to you, but I wouldn’t worry too much on SB.  You just need enough to stay competitive in it.  With the addition of XBH, it makes an SB-specialist that much more debilitating.  I’d definitely pick up Votto if he’s available (probably not anymore) as he could play OF and has 15 SB potential.

While it wouldn’t hurt to pick up another starter, it isn’t imperative.  I don’t think you have much else to offer if you trade Markakis.  I’d stick w/ that move and then play the FA wire.  You don’t need both Ellsbury and Pierre.  Dump or trade one for a usable arm.  Dump Weaver too - there should be better options out there.

Hope this helps…