Where have all the groin pulls gone? In my day, you pulled a hammy or a groin, and you liked it! Now, these kids are all about obliques. What in tarnation is an oblique? Where is it? Is it even in your body? Do you acquire it in some seedy alley in Tijuana? Hurt your femur, dang’nabbit! So Trevor Hoffman is laid up for a few with a strained oblique. He’ll probably miss the first week of the season and, as with old people, they don’t bounce back like they used to, even with tennis balls on their walker. So Trevor Hoffman might be out for longer than a week, then this injury might turn out to be a recurring injury that knocks him out for a week every month or so. Who knows? I don’t even know what an oblique is, but it sounds vague. Filling in for Hoffman might be Todd Coffey (my personal favorite), Carlos Villanueva (having a rough spring) and Seth McClung (bit more of a not-so-great starter than a not-so-great reliever). I’d backup Hoffman with McClung, Coffey then Villanueva, in that order. I don’t think Villanueva with his lack of closer experience and poor spring is getting the call. Coffey is wild, homer-prone and jittery, but has looked none of that in the spring. Then we have McClung, who sounds like a mouth breather. I’m thinking it’s McClung. Could be Coffey. I’d grab them both until it sorts itself out. But don’t pull too many important Jenga pieces from your team just to place McClung and/or Coffey on top. Hoffman is still the closer when healthy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:
Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring. Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two. Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right? Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.
Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third. Yum!
Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL. Doesn’t change his projections. He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.
Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation. Shocker!
Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year. That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this. Silly because it’s true.) Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings. 170 innings?! I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me. This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line. Oh, and how huge for 2009? That could push him over 200 Ks for this year. You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries. It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.
In our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone to the top 60 starters and top 60 outfielders thus far. But since it’s advisable by me and everyone else that has every wielded a fantasy baseball quill to draft pitching late, I figured I needed to give you twenty or so more to bring the tally to the top 80. There will be a top 80 outfielder post too. Christmas came late, ya’ll! In mixed leagues, if I’m drafting this late and I have a choice between an NL pitcher and an AL pitcher, I’d prefer to go for the NL pitcher. They pitch to other pitchers and mostly weaker offenses. That is a post in itself. Also, a lot of these pitchers (and others which will be highlighted during the season) will be smart pickups for some match-ups but aren’t worth starting every game unless they get on a roll. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:
61. Manny Parra – This is the first tier of the top 80 starters. This tier goes from here to Smoltz. I call this tier, “Major issues with all of these pitchers, but I’ll still be looking at them late in deep leagues.” Parra will have a sleeper post dedicated to him. Promise. See, the thing is, I likey Parra. Like likey likey. Though, at times last year, his walks were A to the trocious. 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.10/1.40/160
62. Gil Meche – Meche has been below a 4.00 ERA for two straight years. Last year, he posted nearly 8 strikeouts per nine innings. His FIP was 3.61 last year. Still not convinced? Neither am I. Though it’s hard to argue with him as an AL-Only option. 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.00/1.33/160
63. Bronson Arroyo – Great guy to have in leagues with an innings category or a bad guitar players category. 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150
64. Kenshin Kawakami – Went over him when he signed with the Braves. 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.35/1.40/120
65. Chris Volstad – With a douchey name like he’s a character in a Bret Easton Ellis book, you’d think he’d strikeout more hitters. If his K/9 wasn’t so bleh, I’d like him more. 2009 Projections: 10-7/4.00/1.30/110
66. Randy Johnson – Son, Randy Johnson’s got acne craters older and bigger than you. He could be a great steal late in drafts as long as you only expect 15 starts. 2009 Projections: 7-4/3.50/1.20/90 in 15 starts
67. Dave Bush – You could draft him and only start him at home (3.82 career ERA) like the Brewers did at times last year. His low WHIP always makes him a worthwhile gamble and incongruous with his ERA. 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120
68. Paul Maholm – Last year, Maholm really broke out. And, when talking about the Pirates, a breakout is considered a low 4.00 ERA. 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150
69. Aaron Cook – Jon Garland with a better ERA. That’s about the best compliment I can… *pinkie to mouth* cook up. 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.36/90
70. Edwin Jackson – For about three years, I’ve waited patiently for Jackson to turn the corner from Prospect Ave. Right now, he seems headed to Journeyman Lane, but he’s still young. 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120
71. John Smoltz – Went over Smoltz when he signed with the Sawx. 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.16/60 in 12 starts.
72. Jesse Litsch – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Lannan. I call this tier, “I’m not drafting any of these guys under any conditions.” Litsch is the Blue Jays number two starter. Something tells me they’re not going to be competitive this year either. Litsch can also be found at the top 20 risky pitchers for 2009 post. 2009 Projections: 5-7/4.50/1.30/55 in 20 starts.
73. Todd Wellemeyer – A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. 2009 Projections: 6-8/4.75/1.35 in 20 starts.
74. Rich Hill – Match Game Host, Gene Rayburn, “Last year, Rich Hill was really bad.” Studio Audience, “How bad was he?” Gene, “He was so bad he ____.” Went over him further when the O’s got him. 2009 Projections: 4-5/4.75/1.45/60 in fifteen starts.
75. Joe Blanton – Too bad he’s not a lousy pitcher and injury-prone so Carrasco could slide in. 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.75/1.40/110
76. Pedro Martinez – Wasn’t that long ago he was carrying around a good luck dwarf and celebrating a championship. Now that dwarf is doing better than Pedro’s career. 2009 Projections: 6-7/4.70/1.50/80 in 20 starts.
77. Nick Blackburn – Very little to see here. 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.30/1.34/85
78. Jon Garland -I didn’t go over him when he went to the Diamondbacks, because there’s not much to say. He’s a much better real world pitcher, racking up innings, than a fantasy pitcher. He didn’t get 100 Ks last year in 197.2 innings. Bleh! 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.75/1.42/95
79. John Lannan – Don’t you dare draft him. He will suck your soul and crush your girl-like emotions. 2009 Projections: 6-9/5.00/1.44/80
80. Brad Penny – This is the last tier. This tier goes from here to Shawn Hill. I call this tier, “You can do much worse very late in deep leagues.” If you throw out Penny’s season last year, where he looked miserable and hurt, he would be coming off a 16-4/3.03/1.31 season in 208 innings. If healthy, he could be a steal late. 2009 Projections: 14-10/4.00/1.30/130
81. Aaron Heilman – Went over him when Heilman was traded — the 2nd time. 2009 Projections: 9-4/4.00/1.15/120 in 20 starts.
After the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these three stand out:
Carlos Carrasco – Went over him in the Carrasco keeper post. Big things, I tell ya. Big…. Things. Not sure if he sees time out of the gate, but watch him if a Phillies pitcher gets injured. 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.32/60 in ten starts.
Mark Buehrle – He’s not flashy with those Big City Ks. You probably won’t want to own him. But for the better part of two years, I’ve owned him off and on. He’s usually good for a few ‘worth-owning’ streaks a year. 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120
Shawn Hill – Usually I end the lists with an exciting name. But, guess what? We’re almost 100 deep into the starters so exciting was barfed into an airplane toilet about six tiers ago and flushed out somewhere over Guatemala. Word is Shawn Hill will be healthy for the 2009 season, but keep your expectations in check because he’s never been healthy in his career. Then again, you probably have no expectations of Shawn Hill. In NL-Only leagues, I’d take a very late flier on Hill. 2009 Projections: 8-6/4.10/1.26/110 in 20 starts.
That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington. And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome. I’m real late to the discussion on some of these. Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention. So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:
Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have. At 3rd base this year, he’s okay. I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position. This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.
Aaron Heilman - So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common? Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters. Check one for Heilman. Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers. A big, oversized second check for Heilman. So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer? Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman. Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term. I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers. Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little. Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results. What do I think it is? Well, thanks for asking. I think it’s part psychological. They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable. It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting. It’s part magic. The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year. If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless. If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper. Yup, I said it. Finally. Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman? I sure didn’t when I started this treatise. I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman. Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”
Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him? You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice. Fool me once and shame on you. Fool me twice and shame on me. Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body. If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams. So he’s risky to say the least.
Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3. I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal. They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting. As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.” Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game. Yay, more Rally Monkey.
Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy. Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.
Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job. I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love. Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth. BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career? It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.
In our fantasy baseball forums, there’s a great thread going about the Fantasy MVPs, Cy Youngs and the Least Valuable Players. So I thought I’d do a year end award special. Luckily, you won’t have to wear a tux for this or listen to Derek Jeter try to be funny. Speaking of Viagra — Vlad’s got one good leg and he’s not wearing a shoe on it. Anyway, here’s The 2008 Razzball Year End Awards:
Fantasy AL Most Valuable Player – Josh Hamilton – Did everything, except blow a random stranger for a crack rock.
Fantasy NL Most Valuable Player – Albert Pujols – Pronounced POO-holes.
Fantasy AL Cy Young – Cliff Lee – In ten years, Dennis Quaid is going to be portraying Cliff Lee in a movie of the week called, “2008: The Improbable Season.”
Fantasy NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum – 265 Ks. Sorry, Grey, could you speak up? 265 Ks!
Fantasy AL Least Valuable Player – Travis Hafner – Victor Martinez – Alex Gordon – Carlos Guillen – As the co-co-co-co-winners of this award head up to the podium to accept the award, Pronk trips and his giant melon head crashes into the ground opening a black hole in the space-time continuum that sucks all four of these schmohawks into oblivion.
Fantasy NL Least Valuable Player – Rickie Weeks – Troy Tulowitzki – Rich Hill – When Alex Gordon, Pronk, V-Mart and Carlos Guillen crash to the ground in oblivion, they land on these three schmohawks.
Fantasy Hitter You Most Likely Dropped and Picked Up A Dozen Times – Jerry Hairston Jr. – He’s hitting well? All right, I’ll grab him for a short schedule day. He’s still hitting well? All right, I’ll pick him back up. He’s injured? I’m dropping him. He’s back. Awesome! He’s injured again. Now he’s back. No, he’s not. Yes, he is. Now he’s playing like Jerry Hairston Jr. again. Ugh…
Player You Had Forever and Most Wanted to Drop – JJ Putz – Why can’t I quit you, Putz?
Player On The Top Of Your Waivers That You Just Couldn’t Bring Yourself to Pick Up – Mike Napoli – Eh, I’ll just stick with Pudge.
Pitcher You Streamed So Much You Ended Up Owning Him – Jeremy Guthrie – You know you were actually upset when he went on the DL at the end of the year.
Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From, But Thankfully It Never Did – Cliff Lee – Luckily, I only swore on my pinkie finger that Lee wouldn’t keep up his pace.
Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and It Ended Up Kicking You in the Groin - Dan Uggla - Way to revert to the norm.
Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and When It Did You Were Okay With It - Edinson Volquez – You took some lumps in the 2nd half, but they could’ve been worst.
Player You Traded Away That You Most Regretted – CC Sabathia – Why was he so bad in April?!
Player You Traded For That You Most Regretted – Robinson Cano – Do I send the hate mail to the old Yankee Stadium or the new one?
Best Roofie Pitcher – Johnny Cueto – Max Scherzer – Clayton Krenshaw – Manny Parra
Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:
BUY
Jorge Campillo – Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)
Braden Looper – Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.
Gil Meche – When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.
Ricky Nolasco – 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!
Matt Garza – Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.
SELL
Paul Maholm – This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.
Jamie Moyer – He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.
Armando Galarraga – On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”
Oliver Perez – Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!
Jeff Karstens – Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.
Nick Blackburn – His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.
Aaron Cook – I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!
Dave Bush – This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.
