Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Day the Rays Bullpen Died

June 08, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 94 Comments →

J.P. Howell has back-to-back blown saves.  Joe Nelson hasn’t even sniffed a save opportunity after getting saves when Percival was healthy.  Balfour has given up 7 runs in the last five games.  Isringhausen hasn’t pitched in June.  Dan Wheeler got his first save opportunity on Saturday and blew it.  Lance Cormier sounds like a hockey goalie.  Who’s leading the Rays bullpen since Percival went down?  Lefty specialist, Randy Choate, of course!  When asked after the game if he’ll ever decide on a closer, Joe Maddon pushed his Buddy Holly glasses up the bridge of his nose and said, “That’ll be the day.”  Where’s Percival when you need him?  I would hold one of Howell or Wheeler for now, if you have room.  If you’re desperate for saves, I’d put the other five names in a hat then let Akinori Iwamura pick out a name.  That’s what Joe Maddon does.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mike MacDougal – Manny Acta said MacDougal was the new Nats closer.  The rest of the league said, “Bring on the ninth!”  I’ll put MacDougal’s saves at 2 and his blown saves at 3.

Vladimir Guerrero – 1-for-5, zero home runs and batting .260 since his return.  Three days before he returned, I told you to sell him. I could see him being better than he has been (I called him a has-been!), but his name is obviously a lot more valuable than his bat.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 4 ER.  I’ve been saying all along he’s nothing but a matchups guy because of his lack of strikeouts.  He now has a 3.98 ERA on the year with 36 Ks through 61 innings.  Bleh.

Miguel Cabrera – Left the game after tweaking his hamstring again.  This is not a ‘for now thing,’ but I just thought of it.  I could see Miggy taking a career dive around age 30.

Vince Mazzaro – 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER.  In AL-Only leagues, you can do worse.  Fausto Carmona, for instance, he’s worse.  Chien-Ming?  Yeah, he’s pretty bad.  Rich Hill?  Not interested in him at all.  Revolving schmohawk Indians pitcher is terrible.  Mazzaro is marginal at best in mixed leagues.  Sorry, paisan.

Rich Hill – 1 IP, 3 ER, 4 walks and 1 HBP.  And that’s why I wouldn’t own him in any league.  His owners actually got off easy in the earned run department, which is downstairs with home furnishings.

Casey Kotchman – Hit the DL.  Obviously jealous of so many others pulling a Kotchman, he decided to show them a thing or two about sitting for two weeks with a minor injury.

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Dazzling early on, but uneven is the key word with rookie pitchers.  Most impressive thing was 91 pitches with 61 going for strikes.   As I told you the other day, prior to his first start might be his peak value in one year leagues.  I’m sure he’ll be better than he was on Sunday, hopefully for his owners (and him) it’s in his next start.  I wouldn’t turn him down if he were on waivers, but I wouldn’t trade for him in one year leagues either, unless the deal was too good to be true.

Aaron Harang – In the Reds 14 inning game yesterday, Harang did not pitch.

Edwin Encarnacion – Felt soreness in his wrist and is now heading for an MRI.  If you’re counting on big things in the near-future from Edwin, you probably have bigger fish to fry.

Andrew McCutchen – 6-for-16 since his call up and still without a nickname.  Shame on you, Razzballers.

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 1 ER.  After he was removed from the game, he threw on a fake mustache and tried to get back in the game.  Unfortunately, Hinch went with the non-mustachioed until Clay Zavada took the mound in the 13th.  At least I think it was Zavada.

Chad Qualls – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Suffering forearm stiffness, I think that’s doctor-speak for, “Capable of surrendering a home run to David Eckstein.”  Potatoes to chips, Tony Pena should be able to pickup a blown save or two in the coming week.

Justin Upton – Left the game with an aggravated left shoulder.  Maybe he shouldn’t have said he liked his right shoulder better.  It didn’t look good.  Hopefully, he’ll be back in a few days.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s out until at least the end of the week.

Chad Gaudin – When the Reds game was over, Dusty flew into San Diego and pitched Gaudin in relief.

Josh Wilson – Backup shortstop pitched in the 18th inning for the Padres.  He looked better than Chad Qualls.

Nelson Cruz - Hit his 17th home run yesterday.  Member what Hamilton did last year?  Yup.  Throw David Eckstein in the middle of the Rangers lineup and he goes 35/110.  Of course, Eckstein would need Chad Qualls to be his designated pitcher.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Day-to-day with a strained shoulder.  Fingers crossed in Beantown that it’s contagious and Ortiz catches it.

Joey Votto – Votto won’t be back when he’s eligible on June 14th.  I’ll let frequent commenter, Sean, sum up everyone’s feelings, “The good news is that Joey Votto doesn’t have the swine flu. The bad news is that he has social anxiety disorder.  Anxiety of what? Hitting another HR in every game that he doesn’t feel dizzy?  Maybe you get to take days off for this shizz in Canada, but where I come from, we bottle up our emotional issues and play like crazy til we have a stroke/heart attack and die prematurely.  Votto could lessen the sting of the scrutiny and judgment of others if he moved into the adult world and called himself Joe or Joseph.”

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Through 6 starts, he’s 0-2/1.86/1.01/31.  After Wells’s lead was reduced to rubble by the Cubs bullpen, Wells called Haren for some moral support.  They chitchatted for almost an hour.  Haren finally had to get off the phone to punch Qualls in the mouth.

David Huff – 5 IP, 3 ER vs. the Pale Hose.  The White Sox’s offense is some kind of awful.  Seriously, what happened to this team?

Albert Pujols – Got 2 RBIs on a sac fly.  You know how awful it must make hitters feel who hit behind Pujols when he’s pitched around?  Imagine how it feels when the third base coach sends the guy home from 2nd on a sac fly because of lack of confidence in the next batter.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  Sure, but he didn’t have to face Nick Stavinoha!

Matt Wieters – 0-for-4 and batting .143 with 0 RBIs since his callup.  Aren’t you glad you held him for two months? Just pray Gregg Zaun doesn’t give him any hitting tips.  “When you’re hitting, you keep stepping forward with your left foot.”  “Because I’m a righty.” “You rookies think you know everything!”

Jose Lopez – HR yesterday.  When I saw that he hit a homer, I thought to myself that Lopez has been hot recently so I looked at his splits.  He’s batting .200 in June.  He has been hot!

Sean White – With Aardsma working back-to-back days, White was called on to save yesterday’s game.  I wouldn’t read too much into that.  I would read into that White has 14 walks and 13 Ks on the season.  I’d also read into Morrow has only pitched once in the last 8 days.  Finally, I’d read into Sweet and Low: A Family Story.  Great book.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 13 baserunners.  Not a bad start back, until you realize he was facing the Ain’ts.  Last year, he would’ve chewed these guys up and spit out a shutout.

John Maine – Suffering from a dead arm.  Just like Bea Arthur.

Volq’d Up

June 02, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 106 Comments →

Edinson Volquez left the game after the 1st inning.  Hey, that Edinson-Josh Hamilton trade looks pretty even again, huh?  Volquez was complaining of finger numbness.  Was it cold?  Maybe he can pitch wearing mittens.  If it’s finger numbness from non-weather related reasons, it’s not a good sign.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Volquez ends up back on the DL.  Okay, here’s a pretty general thing that generally applies (ain’t that something?), a pitcher is suffering from anything to do with his throwing arm?  You want out.  Let someone else deal with the agita that comes with a pitcher dealing with arm issues.  Kazmir, Ervin, Baker, etc.  I’ll probably be touting you to draft them all next year.  I wouldn’t go near any of them this year, unless the deal was ridiculously lopsided.  Obviously, Volquez has more value than the other three schmohawks I mentioned, but be wary.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Grady Sizemore – News hasn’t gotten better.  If rest on the DL doesn’t heal his elbow, he’ll need surgery and will be out at least 6 weeks.  I’d say you’d be lucky to get a decent September out of him, if surgery’s necessary.

Chad Qualls – Over the weekend, Mark Grace, the Diamondbacks color man, said that Qualls was experiencing forearm pain.  (This info was supplied by one of our commenters.  In other words, if it’s incorrect, I wash my hands of it.)  Yesterday, Tony Pena got the save.  Pena definitely has closer stuff, but I think Rauch, or even Juan Gutierrez will see time as the closer.  With Pena getting the first opportunity, he should be the first guy you pickup.  I’d pick them up Pena, Rauch then Gutierrez.  Hike up your waiver wire skirts, save whores.

Hiroki Kuroda – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Back from his oblique injury… which is so obfuscatory!  Solid enough start for a third to fourth fantasy starter, which is what Kuroda is.  Remember, last year he led the league in being a FLAKE.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)

Scott Hairston – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  It’s the Age of Hairston!

Colby Rasmus – 3-for-4 with a home run.  Now batting .750 in June, but only one RBI.

J.J. Putz – 3 earned runs and is probably out as the setup man.  Parnell, Feliciano and Stokes should share duties.  Though not doodies, that would be weird.

Livan Hernandez – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Had a Win spoiled by the Mets bullpen.  He knows the feeling, he’s spoiled plenty of his own wins over the years.

Jack Wilson – Wilson, Adam LaRoche or McLouth, who has the highest average?  If you pulled a Brewster’s Millions and guessed none of the above, you wouldn’t be too far off.

Matt Capps – Got the save yesterday.  You can lose Grabow for now.

Carlos Beltran – 2nd day in a row his belly was bothering him.  Claire Danes sends her love.

Jeremy Sowers – 5 IP, 1 ER and 5 walks.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Roy Oswalt – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Has owned the Rockies in his career, and the way the Rox are hitting right now, I could probably go six scoreless against them.  Their cleanup hitter was Atkins.  Somewhere Clint Hurdle derisively laughed.

Rich Hill – 7 IP, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  There’s two hitters batting over .300 on the M’s.  Ichiro, obviously, can you guess the other?  It’s not their 2nd, 3rd or 4th hitters, if that helps.

Rob Johnson – 933 OPS Mariners backstop?  Yeah, Jeff Clement.  He’s in the minors.  Rob Johnson has a 513 OPS.  That’s terrifically awful.

Mike Cameron/Ryan Braun – Cameron left the game in the 6th with knee irritation and Braun left early after fouling a ball off his leg.   The Brewers trainer said they’re both day-to-day, but he’ll be monitoring them closely now that he has so much free time without Weeks around.

John Baker – There’s a new Cristal Young in town and he’s catching for the Marlins.  He’s caught 8 out of 48 for a terrible .167 CS%.  It’s so bad… How bad is it?  Prince Fielder tried to steal yesterday.  Though he was caught inflating Baker’s numbers.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  Has now thrown three solid starts in a row.  I wouldn’t count on four.

Xavier Nady – Felt pain in his elbow during a throwing session.  I’m not sitting on this doode in any league.  Here’s the thing, he’s injury-prone and he plays in a lineup where he’s not even guaranteed time.  I guess if you’re only using a DL slot to hold him, it’s not that big of a deal, but I’d expect nothing and hope for something.

Joba Chamberlain – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks.  Is this Joba’s Mom or is this?  You make the call!

Court Lester

May 15, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell 373 Comments →

Ohmigod, Grey’s totally going against Rudy’s risky pitcher post?  They are so fighting.  I hope Rudy rips off Grey’s stache.  $5 says it’s not real. Uh-hum.  I can hear you, random italicized voice.  I’m actually typing you!  My bad. So, yes, Jon Lester is a risky pitcher.  But at this point, he’s also a buy.  His ERA’s 6.31.  That’s ridunkiculous from where it should be.  He’s pitching well (minus some ill-timed long balls), tremendous K-rate, solid walk rate.  A pitcher who is pitching well and has a 6.31 ERA is such a crazy buy, that I wouldn’t be surprised if his owners weren’t even selling.  But, on the other hand, they’re smarting from his earned runs.  They may see LaTroy Hawkins or Jason Bartlett and be like, “Hey, Lester’s killing me, why not take a guy that at least has been good?”  That’s why you prey on those suckas.  This is why you have brass balls and you just chucked one at your mean lady neighbor who keeps bugging you when you turn the Dropkick Murphys to eleven and put it on repeat.  I’m a sailor peg!!!  And I lost my leg!!!  I love that song.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah.  Lester — get him, within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy and Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Duchscherer – If he’s on waivers and you can stash him on your DL, stash away.

Koji Uehara – I mentioned his delicious tacos and WHIP the other day then afterwards I think I heard a pin drop.  What, no love for Koji?  1.12 WHIP and 32/7 K/BB in 42 and two-thirds innings.  Get on the taco truck!

Nolan Reimold – “Weiters, you gotta see the meals they give you!  And the towels… They’re not hard from dried glue!  Oh, and I saw the guy that played Bunk in the stands.  Markakis is gonna take me to Dick’s Last Resort tonight.   Oh, it’s all so wonderful.  I’ll try to write again soon.”  Reimold has about 20 homers and a .280 if he were to play every day for the rest of the year.  I think he falls about 8 homers short of those projections.  If he gets hot, you might be able to flip him.

Chris Coghlan – Has the best opportunity to impress because the Marlins will give anyone a fair shot.  Shoot, they’re still waiting on Hermida!  Coghlan can give you middle infielder numbers at 3rd.  15/15 might be his ceiling for this year.

Gerardo Parra – Rookie Nookie is alive and well.  Hinch says Parra will see time.  Might be because he wants to put his stamp on the team.  Who’s Hinch?  Not important.  Parra can run.

Mat Gamel – The end all be all.  The big mah-hoff.  The head cheese.  The one guy I would’ve benched for a month in a keeper league.  But he has no playing time.  It may be too early for him.  But in deep leagues if you’re sitting on a random schmohawk middle reliever, and Gamel’s available, it’s worth the two week gamble to sit him on your bench and see what he does.  Don’t drop the Queen for the Rook, but you can drop a Pawn.

Ricky Nolasco – Another risky pitcher.  He’s either hurt or he’ll be much better.  Again, I’m not saying drop Cueto to grab him.  But Nolasco’s owners are definitely fed up with him, so it would pay to buy him very cheaply now and hope for a correction.

Rich Hill – Could be on his way back.  Honestly, I’m not picking him up in any league.  I’d pick up three Randy Wolfs and five Gaudins (Hey, I’m an art collector!) before I picked up one Rich Hill.  He’ll have tough match-ups, his meltdowns are legendary, I’m just not that brave.  I can understand it in deep leagues, just won’t be me.

Ian Stewart – With Alex Gordon on the DL, someone’s gotta be my crush.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – He’s hot right now.  Not sure if it’ll last, but it doesn’t hurt to take a two week flier on a middle infielder.

Emmanuel Burriss – George Papadapolis owns him.  Why won’t you?

Ryan Madson – Lidge has been a mess.  Something’s up.  Ain’t his value.

Juan Cruz – Shouldn’t be on waivers in any league that counts saves.  Soria has shoulder trouble.  ‘Nuff said.  Or enough, if you’re a completist.

David Aardsma – Will be getting saves by next Monday.  May get them for the next month.

SELL

Joakim Soria – Don’t trade him (or drop him) right now.  But at the first sign of good news or when he returns, I’d explore trade offers for him.  When a team checks to see if there’s structural damage on your closer’s shoulder, it’s not good news no matter the results.

Any Schmohawk The Nats Put In the 9th Inning Role – I’m one of the biggest save vultures you’ll ever meet.  I own Dan Wheeler for crimey sakes!  Still, I’m not going near this one.  Kip smells, Hanaratty, Bye-mel… None of them.

Brian Roberts – He has 5 steals and 3 times caught.  He’s 31 years-old.  Maybe he lost that extra step that makes all the difference.  If you’re banking on 40 steals, you might want to look at trading Roberts and picking up Burriss.

Jason Bartlett – Let’s see, he’s batting .369.  He’s a .285 hitter.  He has 5 homers, that’s tied for his career high.  He has 9 steals.  Maybe he gets to 30.  So you’re looking at a guy who’s bumping his head on his ceiling and you wanna get on his back? Not unless you wanna fall for the old banana in the tailpipe.

Oblique Hassles The Hoff

March 22, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 37 Comments →

Where have all the groin pulls gone?  In my day, you pulled a hammy or a groin, and you liked it!  Now, these kids are all about obliques.  What in tarnation is an oblique?  Where is it?  Is it even in your body?  Do you acquire it in some seedy alley in Tijuana?  Hurt your femur, dang’nabbit!  So Trevor Hoffman is laid up for a few with a strained oblique.  He’ll probably miss the first week of the season and, as with old people, they don’t bounce back like they used to, even with tennis balls on their walker.  So Trevor Hoffman might be out for longer than a week, then this injury might turn out to be a recurring injury that knocks him out for a week every month or so.  Who knows? I don’t even know what an oblique is, but it sounds vague.  Filling in for Hoffman might be Todd Coffey (my personal favorite), Carlos Villanueva (having a rough spring) and Seth McClung (bit more of a not-so-great starter than a not-so-great reliever).  I’d backup Hoffman with McClung, Coffey then Villanueva, in that order.  I don’t think Villanueva with his lack of closer experience and poor spring is getting the call.  Coffey is wild, homer-prone and jittery, but has looked none of that in the spring.  Then we have McClung, who sounds like a mouth breather.  I’m thinking it’s McClung.  Could be Coffey.  I’d grab them both until it sorts itself out.  But don’t pull too many important Jenga pieces from your team just to place McClung and/or Coffey on top.  Hoffman is still the closer when healthy.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring.  Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two.  Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right?  Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.

Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third.  Yum!

Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL.  Doesn’t change his projections.  He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.

Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation.  Shocker!

Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year.  That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this.  Silly because it’s true.)  Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings.  170 innings?!  I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me.  This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line.  Oh, and how huge for 2009?  That could push him over 200 Ks for this year.  You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.

Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries.  It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.

Top 80 Starters for 2009 Fantasy Baseball

February 17, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 20 Comments →

In our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone to the top 60 starters and top 60 outfielders thus far.  But since it’s advisable by me and everyone else that has every wielded a fantasy baseball quill to draft pitching late, I figured I needed to give you twenty or so more to bring the tally to the top 80.  There will be a top 80 outfielder post too.  Christmas came late, ya’ll!  In mixed leagues, if I’m drafting this late and I have a choice between an NL pitcher and an AL pitcher, I’d prefer to go for the NL pitcher.  They pitch to other pitchers and mostly weaker offenses.  That is a post in itself.  Also, a lot of these pitchers (and others which will be highlighted during the season) will be smart pickups for some match-ups but aren’t worth starting every game unless they get on a roll.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Manny Parra – This is the first tier of the top 80 starters.  This tier goes from here to Smoltz.  I call this tier, “Major issues with all of these pitchers, but I’ll still be looking at them late in deep leagues.”  Parra will have a sleeper post dedicated to him.  Promise.  See, the thing is, I likey Parra.  Like likey likey.  Though, at times last year, his walks were A to the trocious.  2009 Projections:  11-9/4.10/1.40/160

62. Gil Meche – Meche has been below a 4.00 ERA for two straight years.  Last year, he posted nearly 8 strikeouts per nine innings.  His FIP was 3.61 last year.  Still not convinced?  Neither am I.  Though it’s hard to argue with him as an AL-Only option.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.00/1.33/160

63. Bronson Arroyo – Great guy to have in leagues with an innings category or a bad guitar players category.  2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150

64. Kenshin Kawakami – Went over him when he signed with the Braves.  2009 Projections:  12-8/4.35/1.40/120

65. Chris Volstad – With a douchey name like he’s a character in a Bret Easton Ellis book, you’d think he’d strikeout more hitters.  If his K/9 wasn’t so bleh, I’d like him more.  2009 Projections:  10-7/4.00/1.30/110

66. Randy Johnson – Son, Randy Johnson’s got acne craters older and bigger than you.   He could be a great steal late in drafts as long as you only expect 15 starts.  2009 Projections:  7-4/3.50/1.20/90 in 15 starts

67. Dave Bush – You could draft him and only start him at home (3.82 career ERA) like the Brewers did at times last year.  His low WHIP always makes him a worthwhile gamble and incongruous with his ERA.  2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120

68. Paul Maholm – Last year, Maholm really broke out.  And, when talking about the Pirates, a breakout is considered a low 4.00 ERA.  2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150

69. Aaron Cook – Jon Garland with a better ERA.  That’s about the best compliment I can… *pinkie to mouth* cook up.  2009 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.36/90

70. Edwin Jackson – For about three years, I’ve waited patiently for Jackson to turn the corner from Prospect Ave.  Right now, he seems headed to Journeyman Lane, but he’s still young.  2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120

71. John Smoltz – Went over Smoltz when he signed with the Sawx. 2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.16/60 in 12 starts.

72. Jesse Litsch – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Lannan.  I call this tier, “I’m not drafting any of these guys under any conditions.”  Litsch is the Blue Jays number two starter.  Something tells me they’re not going to be competitive this year either.  Litsch can also be found at the top 20 risky pitchers for 2009 post.  2009 Projections:  5-7/4.50/1.30/55 in 20 starts.

73. Todd Wellemeyer – A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer.  2009 Projections:  6-8/4.75/1.35 in 20 starts.

74. Rich Hill – Match Game Host, Gene Rayburn, “Last year, Rich Hill was really bad.” Studio Audience, “How bad was he?”  Gene, “He was so bad he ____.”  Went over him further when the O’s got him.  2009 Projections:  4-5/4.75/1.45/60 in fifteen starts.

75. Joe Blanton – Too bad he’s not a lousy pitcher and injury-prone so Carrasco could slide in.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.75/1.40/110

76. Pedro Martinez – Wasn’t that long ago he was carrying around a good luck dwarf and celebrating a championship.  Now that dwarf is doing better than Pedro’s career.  2009 Projections:  6-7/4.70/1.50/80 in 20 starts.

77. Nick Blackburn – Very little to see here.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.30/1.34/85

78. Jon Garland -I didn’t go over him when he went to the Diamondbacks, because there’s not much to say.  He’s a much better real world pitcher, racking up innings, than a fantasy pitcher.  He didn’t get 100 Ks last year in 197.2 innings.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.75/1.42/95

79. John Lannan – Don’t you dare draft him.   He will suck your soul and crush your girl-like emotions.  2009 Projections: 6-9/5.00/1.44/80

80. Brad Penny – This is the last tier.  This tier goes from here to Shawn Hill.  I call this tier, “You can do much worse very late in deep leagues.”  If you throw out Penny’s season last year, where he looked miserable and hurt, he would be coming off a 16-4/3.03/1.31 season in 208 innings.  If healthy, he could be a steal late.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.00/1.30/130

81. Aaron Heilman – Went over him when Heilman was traded — the 2nd time.  2009 Projections:  9-4/4.00/1.15/120 in 20 starts.

After the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these three stand out:

Carlos Carrasco – Went over him in the Carrasco keeper post.  Big things, I tell ya.  Big…. Things.  Not sure if he sees time out of the gate, but watch him if a Phillies pitcher gets injured.  2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.32/60 in ten starts.

Mark Buehrle – He’s not flashy with those Big City Ks. You probably won’t want to own him. But for the better part of two years, I’ve owned him off and on. He’s usually good for a few ‘worth-owning’ streaks a year. 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120

Shawn Hill – Usually I end the lists with an exciting name.  But, guess what?  We’re almost 100 deep into the starters so exciting was barfed into an airplane toilet about six tiers ago and flushed out somewhere over Guatemala.  Word is Shawn Hill will be healthy for the 2009 season, but keep your expectations in check because he’s never been healthy in his career.  Then again, you probably have no expectations of Shawn Hill.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d take a very late flier on Hill.  2009 Projections:  8-6/4.10/1.26/110 in 20 starts.