Fantasy Baseball Advice

To come up with the 20 biggest draft busts — pitcher’s edition! — I used Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. Some of the schmohawkiest pitchers, like Carlos Silva, I left off. Not because he was better than expected, but because he was as expected. That’s not a bust. This is similar to Tim Gunn’s monkey house analogy that goes something like this, “If you visit the monkey house, it smells like crap. If you live in the monkey house, it no longer smells like crap.” In each entry of the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly some of these fantasy baseball pitchers shat your proverbial house. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Daniel Cabrera - No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain - His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman - Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett - Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano - 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto - Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine - I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis - Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero - This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano - What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez - Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo - At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell - He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang - If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill - Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz - Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona - When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard - It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang - Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander - 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

In our fantasy baseball forums, there’s a great thread going about the Fantasy MVPs, Cy Youngs and the Least Valuable Players. So I thought I’d do a year end award special. Luckily, you won’t have to wear a tux for this or listen to Derek Jeter try to be funny. Speaking of Viagra — Vlad’s got one good leg and he’s not wearing a shoe on it. Anyway, here’s The 2008 Razzball Year End Awards:

Fantasy AL Most Valuable Player - Josh Hamilton - Did everything, except blow a random stranger for a crack rock.

Fantasy NL Most Valuable Player - Albert Pujols - Pronounced POO-holes.

Fantasy AL Cy Young - Cliff Lee - In ten years, Dennis Quaid is going to be portraying Cliff Lee in a movie of the week called, “2008: The Improbable Season.”

Fantasy NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum - 265 Ks. Sorry, Grey, could you speak up? 265 Ks!

Fantasy AL Least Valuable Player - Travis Hafner - Victor Martinez - Alex Gordon - Carlos Guillen - As the co-co-co-co-winners of this award head up to the podium to accept the award, Pronk trips and his giant melon head crashes into the ground opening a black hole in the space-time continuum that sucks all four of these schmohawks into oblivion.

Fantasy NL Least Valuable Player - Rickie Weeks - Troy Tulowitzki - Rich Hill - When Alex Gordon, Pronk, V-Mart and Carlos Guillen crash to the ground in oblivion, they land on these three schmohawks.

Fantasy Hitter You Most Likely Dropped and Picked Up A Dozen Times - Jerry Hairston Jr. - He’s hitting well? All right, I’ll grab him for a short schedule day. He’s still hitting well? All right, I’ll pick him back up. He’s injured? I’m dropping him. He’s back. Awesome! He’s injured again. Now he’s back. No, he’s not. Yes, he is. Now he’s playing like Jerry Hairston Jr. again. Ugh…

Player You Had Forever and Most Wanted to Drop - JJ Putz - Why can’t I quit you, Putz?

Player On The Top Of Your Waivers That You Just Couldn’t Bring Yourself to Pick Up - Mike Napoli - Eh, I’ll just stick with Pudge.

Pitcher You Streamed So Much You Ended Up Owning Him - Jeremy Guthrie - You know you were actually upset when he went on the DL at the end of the year.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From, But Thankfully It Never Did - Cliff Lee - Luckily, I only swore on my pinkie finger that Lee wouldn’t keep up his pace.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and It Ended Up Kicking You in the Groin - Dan Uggla - Way to revert to the norm.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and When It Did You Were Okay With It - Edinson Volquez - You took some lumps in the 2nd half, but they could’ve been worst.

Player You Traded Away That You Most Regretted - CC Sabathia - Why was he so bad in April?!

Player You Traded For That You Most Regretted - Robinson Cano - Do I send the hate mail to the old Yankee Stadium or the new one?

Best Roofie Pitcher - Johnny Cueto - Max Scherzer - Clayton Krenshaw - Manny Parra

Best Jockular Sphincteritis - Kaz Matsui

Top Cuddle Boy - Fernando Rodney

Top SAGNOF - Willy Taveras/Jose Valverde (Tie)

Top Bowden Fluffer - Delmon Young

Top ESPN Analcyst - Eric Karabell

Player Who “Pulled A Kotchman“ - Rafael Furcal/Phil Hughes (Tie)

Player You Most Wanted To Run Over With a Tractor - Travis Hafner - Because Co-Co-Co-Co-Least Valuable Player Award Wasn’t Enough.

Remember That Feeling You Had When You Walked In On Your Parents Having Sex, This Pitcher Gave You That Feeling Every Fifth Day - Aaron Harang

Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Jorge Campillo - Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)

Jeremy Guthrie - Again, he’s probably gone by now, but I told you to get him when Rich Hill and Gallardo collapsed on May 4th.

Braden Looper - Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.

Gil Meche - When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.

Ricky Nolasco - 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!

Matt Garza - Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.

SELL

Paul Maholm - This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.

Jamie Moyer - He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.

Armando Galarraga - On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”

Oliver Perez - Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!

Jeff Karstens - Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.

Nick Blackburn - His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.

Aaron Cook - I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!

Dave Bush - This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.

I was drunk for the first three months of the fantasy baseball season. That’s right, blitzed. Three coladas to the wind. Someone would ask me for fantasy baseball advice and I’d type out my answers with a celery stalk that was drenched in booze. Chris Davis or Chase Headley? I’d play eeny-meeny-miney-moe with my cocktail umbrellas. Start Kuroda? I’d ask whatever nogoodnik was on the stool next to me at the local watering hole. But I had, as drunks say, a moment of clarity. So I decided to take the All-Star Break as an opportunity to look back at some ill-advised fantasy baseball advice that I gave and make amends. As Josh Hamilton would say, “It’s Step 8. Make a list of all persons we have harmed, and make amends to them all. Apologize especially to Milton Bradley, or he’ll stab you with a spork.” Anyway, here goes some apologies for first half fantasy baseball advice that makes me lucky the American Mustache Institute doesn’t revoke my license to have a mustache:

Travis Hafner - I placed him 4th overall for all first basemen. Not only did Hafner not deliver what I had hoped, he didn’t deliver anything, except a message that read, “I don’t deserve my uber-cool nickname, Pronk, and my bones have atrophied 500% in the last two years.” Unless Hafner gets in that pool from the movie, “Cocoon,” we’re done with each other forever. Skinny dip with Wilford Brimley or it’s goodbye. Your call, Pronk.

Rich Hill - I put everyone in this schmohawk, including Carl in the first comment here. I think Carl promised to hate me forever if the trade backfired. Luckily, all he lost was Krispie Young. I hate you, Rich Hill, for coming between me and Carl!

Jeff Francoeur - Even in leagues that don’t count OBP, I hate guys that don’t take a walk, but Frenchy had a certain je ne sais quoi. Maybe his free swinging ways made him like Vlad, but white — as most Vlads are.  Well, I was wrong here (even choosing him over Josh Hamilton in that ‘pert league), here and here. I swung and missed with Franceour about as many times as he did. Next time I tout Frenchy, my article title may as well be, “Grey’s Gay for Francoeur.”

Robinson Cano - There were times on this site when I should’ve changed my Don Mattingly look-a-like picture and put Cano up there with a big heart over it. I was blinded by Cano’s youth and flat, line drive stroke that is Carew-like. (If his swing was anymore like Carew’s, he’d have to circumcise the knobs on his bat.) Or maybe I was attracted to Cano’s absurdly low BABIP that made me think again and again he had to be a Buy Low…. Actually, I’m still buying. Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Edwin Encarnacion - When I placed him 15th out of all third basemen, I said this, “Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarnacion.” I was crazy. See, your first instinct is always right. Go ask Malcolm Gladwell.

Alex Gordon - I loved Gordon coming into the year. Was I wrong? That’s what this post is about. Why are you asking rhetorical questions that do nothing but hurt me? When you cut me, do I not bleed?

Alexis Rios - This is Rios’s fault as much as it’s mine. Why does your swing have to be so sweet?

Aaron Harang - I called Harang up the other day on my cellular phone. “Grey here.” “Oh, I was just calling in an order for some Hot & Sour Soup and potstickers and didn’t hear the phone ring.” “Yeah, that’s cool. Listen–” “Who did you say you were again?” “Never mind that.  Just let me say something.” “Um… Who?” “Listen, this isn’t easy. I’m sorry for putting so much pressure on you. I thought you were a solid starter that was wholly underrated. I see now you weren’t underappreciated, just under-skilled–” “This is an apology?” “Yeah, give me a second. So when I told everyone they should not only draft you, but trade for you. Why did you then shit my house? Cause I think the–” “This doesn’t sound like an apology.” “I’m getting to it!” “Okay, but I think I have another call.” “Oh, okay, I just figured you owed me some kind of apology–” “Me apologize to you?” “Yeah, you completely ruined five of my fantasy teams!” “I thought you were the one who was supposed to apologize.” “Yeah, you’re right. I apologize for believiing in you, you fat, mother– Hello? Hello? Aaron?”

Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Taylor Buchholz - Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.

Aaron Laffey - Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.

Mike Jacobs - I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.

Nick Markakis - Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.

Kenny Rogers - Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!

Joe Saunders - Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.

Carlos Ruiz - Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.

Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.

Melky Cabrera - Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.

Robinson Cano - Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.

German Duran - Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.

Jack Cust - Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.

Chone Figgins - Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.

Ian Stewart - I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?

Tony Pena Jr. - Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start.  Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.

Scott Kazmir - Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.

Mike Cameron - Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.

Eric Gagne - Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!

Hunter Pence - I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.

Greg Smith - At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.

Aaron Cook - I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.

Ryan Zimmerman - Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.

Evan Longoria - I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.

Tim Redding - If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.