Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008 and yesterday we went over 20 best draft picks for the hitters in 2008. Today, we go over the best value for their 2008 draft picks — the pitchers. The top 20 best draft picks of 2008 were figured out the same way I figured out the busts, using Rudy “Point Shares” Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. You’re not going to see someone such as Brandon Webb on this list, because he was drafted high and supposed to perform well. The players on this list are late round gold nuggets found between the turd nuggets. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball pitchers. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Joe Saunders - If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks - Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour - I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester - Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe - Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge - I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer - Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood - At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez - Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina - I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria - Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco - My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia - In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera - I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana - Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster - Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden - Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay - According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum - 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee - Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay - When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia - Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum - Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee - You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana - Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels - Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb - Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana - Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren - Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster - What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden - “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco - In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina - 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe - In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt - Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets - Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez - I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields - The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 - 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley - See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka - In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

David Price made his 1st major league start yesterday against the Orioles. He went five and one-third innings and gave up one earned run. He was solid through four innings, but then his stool got loose in the fifth when he walked in a run. What I saw, he looked dazzling at times and every bit the hyped uber-prospect with the bland name that he’s supposed to be. He’ll be an early Rookie of the Year candidate next year, but there’s a lot of baseball still for him to play this year. Will he be an October hero or will he struggle? Will he blaze through spring training or hit Manual Noriega-sized facial craters? Stay tuned! Or not! Or yacht! Your choice! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rich Harden - The Cubs begin to setup their playoff rotation by pushing Harden’s start from Tuesday to Thursday. (This is another reason why H2H is lame. You have playoffs in your league when many players aren’t even interested in the outcome of the games. This is also a solid reason to load up on Mets, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Brewers as they fight for their lives.)

Chris Dickerson - Looking invulnerable for almost a month until his one weakness was exposed, the Achilles. Dickerson has an Achilles stress fracture and he’s done for the year. Don’t worry, Dickerson, I’ll make sure you show up on a sleeper list or two in ‘09. Toodles for now.

Hanley Ramirez - 0-for-5 as he returned from shoulder pain to watch his Marlins get officially eliminated. The Marlins might shutdown Hanley before the Nots’ series to avoid further injury for their prized shortstop. Unless they feel compelled to give all the paying Nots fans their money’s worth, which is approximately $4.75.

Jake Peavy - Goes from a two start pitcher to a one start pitcher as his start is pushed back from Tuesday to Thursday. Peaved? Yeah, you are.

Brandon Webb - Won his 22nd game and puts the Cy Young pressure on Lincecum to throw 140 pitches next time out. A Cy Young is soooo (I almost went with two extra snarky ohs, but I felt like three was necessary) much more important than a healthy pitcher next year.

Joey Devine - Got a Hold yesterday as he entered the eighth. Well, there goes his save potential for this last week, right? Not so fast, Ralph Tresvant. Ziegler blew the save and was pulled from the ninth for Embree.

Ervin Santana - 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. On the year, he has an incredible 209/46 K/BB ratio. In case there’s anyone out there that doesn’t follow these sorts of statistics, that ratio is Santanalicious, as in Johan.

Kelly Johnson - HR yesterday. You’re going to look at his 82/12/67/.285/10 numbers next year and think, “He’s exactly what I need at 2nd base!” And he’s not bad, but, man, he gets yawnstipating for months at a time. BTW, my preseason projections for him were 85/17/65/.275/12. Pretty close, huh? I can’t wait until I go over all my preseason predictions this offseason to see how I did — all starting next week! That’s right, put on your excitement shoes!

Stephen Drew - HR yesterday. Hitting .351 with 5 HRs in September. Ain’t that right, Drew? True.

Dan Wheeler - Save yesterday. Bee tee dubya, Percival is not even with the team as he gets readied for the postseason (and middle age).

David DeJesus - 4-for-4 yesterday, in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak and batting over .350 in September. Groove is in DeJesus.

Miguel Cabrera - Lower back tightness forced him out of the game. Make sure you have a backup because the Tigers will not press him into action if he’s hurting.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday and still healthy. Hank, there’s only six more days you have to live in that bubble! Keep on rollin’!

Yesterday, Carlos Zambrano was scheduled for an MRI but failed to show. Possible reasons why: A) He showed up five minutes late and his appointment was given away to Steve Bartman. B) The doctor looked like Michael Barrett. Z was escorted out. C) He decided to check out The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 instead. Z’s priorities are out of order. If you’re in your H2H playoffs , you need to cut bait and see who else is out there. In some leagues, I’m looking at Randy Wolf (I know, you just threw up a little in your mouth), but his confidence should be sky high after his complete game and he faces the Pirates next. Some other names I like that I’ve seen on various waiver wires include Slowey, Garza, Kuroda, Blackburn, anyone facing the Mariners, Nats or Padres. (BTW, if you’re in H2H playoffs, I think you’ll be able to appreciate one man’s H2H playoff breakdown.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jim Johnson - About to have an MRI because his shoulder hurts? No, because Trembley’s an awful manager. Jamie Walker, Fernando Cabrera, Dennis Sarfate and as a dark horse candidate, Radhames Liz. And before the NAACP contacts me, I wasn’t being punny when I wrote dark horse.

Scott McClain - Hit his first HR of his career after 29 HRs in Triple-A. Some day Woody Harrelson will gain 120 lbs. and play him in the movie adaption of his life.

Pablo Sandoval - 2nd HR of the year. Benicio Del Toro will borrow the fat suit Adrian Grenier used in Medellin to play Sandoval.

Dave Bush - 5 IP, 6 ER. You saw Bush just sitting there and you couldn’t keep your hands off. Now you feel used and it burns when you pee. Serves you right.

Lance Cormier/Dennis Sarfate - Outdueled Dice-K but still lost. This is the number one reason why people don’t bet on baseball and why most of the time you’re better off to just go with your top guys. Baseball’s an unpredictable game day-to-day but fairly predictable over 162 games. And I officially sound like some crappy baseball announcer — see Don Sutton.

Dustin Nippert - 7 IP, 0 ER and only seven hits with no walks. Holy heffin’– Oh, it was the Mariners.

Jorge Campillo - 5 IP, 7 Ks. I kinda felt a decent start was coming because the Marlins do enjoy swinging and missing.

Joe Nelson - Got the save yesterday. Guess he’s the number two man behind the recently overworked Matt Lindstrom.

Dustin Pedroia - 17th HR yesterday. David Ortiz, 17 HRs.

Mark Reynolds - 4 Ks as he heads towards 200 Ks. You haven’t heard much about me fingercuffing Reynolds because I dropped him about two months ago in my Razzball league. I just couldn’t stand all of the home runs he was giving me. I still have him in a NL-Only league. In other news, yawn.

Yunel Escobar - Has a sore shoulder, supposedly he’s battled this all year. Yeah, and my excuse is I have a monkey writing these posts.

Troy Percival - Kazaam! More importantly, I wouldn’t pop your Wheelers just yet.

Alex Rodriguez - Hit a meaningless HR yesterday. Wait, Joe Maddon’s throwing his challenge flag! Cut to 2 minutes, 15 seconds later. Yes, it is a meaningless home run!

Dallas McPherson - After hitting 42 home runs in Triple-A, he made his first start yesterday. He walked twice and K’d. McPherson grew up masturbating to Adam Dunn. That’s sincerely a compliment.

Rich Harden - Arm discomfort. He reports it’s “nothing serious.” Yeah, and taco diarrhea doesn’t burn.

Wade LeBlanc - Top Padres pitching prospect made his major league debut and pitched like a Nats prospect, 4 IP, 5 ER. LeBlanc has a HR problem and there’s no way he’ll ever shake the Joey typecasting.

Blake DeWitt - HR yesterday. He’s been starting at 2nd base. If he can get that eligibility, his value goes from one dollar to one Euro.

Chris Dickerson - HR yesterday. Could he get to 10/10 in a month and a half? I wanna have shirts made up that say, “I (heart) Dick…” and on the back, “…erson.” What?

George Sherrill gave you a whole lot more than you should’ve expected. In fact, he gave you more than you should’ve expected by May. The rest? Icing. But that kind of rational and perspective-laden thinking can get you in trouble. Assuming you had him and need saves, you’ll need someone.  Grab Jim Johnson. (Yes, he does sound like a guy that would hold 30 people hostage and organize a mass suicide.) If you’re set on saves, you still pick up the closer to spite your league! Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Wagner - Out indefinitely.  Ayala, Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez then Smith, that’s not the order I see them getting saves. That’s alphabetical order. As far as Manuel’s concerned, that might be the order they get saves. What’s the difference between Jesus and the Mets’ current bullpen? At least some people have faith that Jesus saves.

Rich Harden - Forever injured in Oakland, Harden has been amazing for the Cubs (and fantasy owners).  Another 10K game.  I wonder if Cubs fans accidentally call him Mark Prior during their masturbatory fantasies.  Billy Beane should sign Mark Prior and hope it is a lucky break in the DL/time continuum.

Ian Kinsler - Might come back from a slight hernia to play the last week or two of the season. Texas ain’t making the playoffs. Don’t strain yourself, Ian!

Kevin Youkilis - HR yesterday. Youuuuuuuk’s been on fire. .414/6/16 in August.

Josh Beckett - Will have his start pushed as he reported tingling in his arm after sleeping on it wrong.  The way the Blue Jays hit him last outing, that’s probably not the only part of his body that’s tingling right now.

Braden Looper - 7 IP, 1 ER. I told you two weeks ago Looper would be lights out in August. So far, he has a 1.93 ERA. Are you waiting until September to pick him up when he’s not good anymore?

Kevin Slowey - Snow White’s K-challenged dwarf somehow struck out 12 A’s in a rout.  As Billy Beane considers whether to trade some of his young prospects for some promising zygotes.

Brandon Lyon - Came into a 4 run game and gave up 3 earned in a third of an inning. Kazaam!

Ricky Nolasco - Two hit shutout with 11 Ks. Against the Giants, but still. This dooode’s been money. N to the Izz-O, L to the Izz-A.  Fo shizzle, my Nolasco.

Clayton Richard - 6 shutout innings against the Mariners.  The only pitchers I wouldn’t spot start against the Mariners pitch for the Mariners.

Aaron Harang - Start pushed back with neck spasms. “He couldn’t turn his head,” said Reds pitching coach Dick Pole. Funny that’s the coach’s name, cause this year Harang’s been a Cock Punch.

Adam Lind - HR yesterday. 4 homers in the last 6 games. Fans up Toronto probably missed it as they were off celebrating Carol Huynh’s Freestyle Wrestling Gold Medal. Okay, but let’s see her take on the Farmer’s Daughter from GLOW.