Fantasy Baseball Advice

David Ortiz must not have fed the meter yesterday because he was fitted with a boot.  Southie police officer, “You ahr naht above the lah!  Now sign my badge for my boy, Tommy.”  Turns out Big Papi has right heel bursitis, which is a fancy word that eHow has seven useless articles about that is essentially inflammation.   Now if he has a doctor that stutters, no one will know if he’s saying “heel heel” or “heal heel.”  Or maybe he’s not a stutterer at all, but everyone who finds out his occupation just thinks he stutters because he says he’s a heel healer.  These are the things I worry about.  Your fantasy team should only have bunny ears without Papi for about a week.  He’s a quick healer (heel healer, heel? Forever, forever, ever, forever, ever?)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adrian Gonzalez – Francona said he thinks his sore neck is to account for A-Gon’s lack of power.  I’m not so sure, McGwire and Canseco had no necks and they hit plenty of homers.

David Price – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Last year, his xFIP was high and his walk rate was a bit high.  This year, it’s the polar opposite.  Right now, he’s pitching much better than even his 3.59 ERA is showing with a great K and walk rate.  In 2012, we’re gonna have to go all in again with Price.

Evan Longoria – 1-for-3 with his 19th homer.  In 343 ABs, he has 67 RBIs and only 79 hits.  I’m sure Jayson Stark could write a whole article about that, but that’s all I have to say on that subject.

Brian Wilson – Out for a few days with an inflamed elbow.  Pablo Sandoval, “Can I make smores on his elbow?”  I have no confirmation of this, but it sounds like Wilson’s headed for a DL stint.  If you can, I’d grab Ram-Ram and Affeldt, in that order assuming you don’t convert these posts to Hebrew.

Miguel Olivo – Sat out yesterday, and left Tuesday’s game after being hit in the jaw with a foul tip.  That was like watching a sequel to Carlos Zambrano vs. Michael Barrett, except the ball wasn’t as tightly wound as Zambrano.

Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 12 Ks.  His WHIP is now 1.24, he has 154 Ks in 132 2/3 IP and 154 Ks to 50 walks.  How is his ERA 4.41?  Actually, don’t answer that, just give it as a reason to your leaguemates next year why they shouldn’t draft him, then you do.

Michael Cuddyer – Will probably end up on the DL Thursday morning, which is right now.  Hey!

Rene Tosoni – 2-for-3 with his 3rd homer.  Pretty marginal player but he makes a wonderful salmon en papillote.

Ervin Santana – 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 14 baserunners, 4 Ks and 129 pitches as the Sciosciapath was too distracted by Mike Napoli in the opposing dugout to lift Ervin.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He finally gets his ERA under 4.  I’m sure in March you were expecting me to say that in the middle of August.

Jhonny Peralta – 2-for-3 with his 17th homer and 64 RBI.  He’s also batting .311.  I would’ve gave my Ken Phelps rookie card for Stephen Drew to put up those numbers this year.  (BTW, you wanna laugh?  Read Ken Phelps’ Wikipedia summary.  Tell me he didn’t write that himself.  It’s like saying, “His coke bottle glasses hides his warm inviting eyes.”)

Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  ERA is now at 3.33.  He’s been completely serviceable this year, but there’s some pitchers I just won’t own, no matter the matchup.  Lohse is one of tohse.

Allen Craig – 4-for-5 with two homers.  I need to see him guaranteed everyday ABs before I’d add him.

Yadier Molina – 3-for-5 and a steal.  Yesterday, I was looking at grabbing a hitter off waivers following my rules and I kept coming back to Yadier, so I picked up Ramon Ramirez.

Jose Tabata – Hit his 4th homer in his 2nd game back.  I wouldn’t grab him for the power, but if you’re hurting for speed you can swing for Tuh-bata-bata-bata.

Derek Jeter – 4-for-5 as the Yankees wore their 2009 throwback uniforms.

Stephen Strasburg – Davey Johnson said that Strasburg could return on September 2nd.  Sounds like the Nats will be planking on a lot less unsold tickets.

Kyle Blanks – Sat out yesterday with back soreness, which left fans in the left field bleachers confused why their tickets said obstructed view.

Brandon Allen – 1-for-2 and he got the Paul O’Neill home run — a triple and a error.

Kurt Suzuki – 2 homers.  He must be drinking the same Hawaiian Punch as Shane Victorino.

Nick Markakis – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 13th home run.  He must’ve sprayed his bat with Windex.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K vs. the Aints.  I would’ve started Jar-Jar in this start too, so I get it, but it’s always a risky proposition when a pitcher is returning from the DL, especially one whose peripherals are saying he’s not pitching as well as his ERA is saying.

Johnny Cueto – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  ERA is now at 1.89.  For the love of Murray Chass, please don’t let the correction come until next year.

Nate Eovaldi – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He didn’t quite *pinkie to mouth* domiNate.  Just about any NL West starter is worth a looksie, but Eovaldi is likely to get shutdown or moved to the bullpen after his next start or two.

Dillon Gee – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Has a decent WHIP (1.23), but I’d chalk up this solid start to vs. the Padres in Petco more than Gee.

Jose Reyes – Scheduled to run Friday.  I don’t think he has the requisite credentials but he can’t be worse than Michelle Bachman and Rick Perry.

Not sure if you’ve noticed but last year’s ROY runner-up, Jason Heyward, has been AWFUL in May – 2 for 28 with 13 Ks. Now it comes out that he’s got a sore shoulder and his right hand and forearm have become uncomfortably numb.  Hopefully they can give him just a little pin prick that will make him feel better.  Best case is he misses a couple days.  Worst case is amputation via tomahawk.  I think he can avoid the worst case but you never know…Heyward….Hey Ward, something’s wrong with the Beaver.  Ward and Beaver’s last name was Cleaver.  Cleaver is the white man term for tomahawk…..oh oh whoa-a-ho!

Other fantasy baseball news…

Brett Myers – Cloud:  6 ER and 10 baserunners in the first 2 innings.  Extremely faint silver lining:  He threw 4 scoreless innings afterward with 4 baserunners and ended the game with 8 Ks.  The truth is somewhere in between “gumdrop Himalaya.”

Brian Wilson – Got his 3rd win in 5 days.  You think Grey and I are bitter that it seems like every reliever that we don’t own has 2 or 3 vulture wins?  You couldn’t handle the bitterness!

Derek Jeter – 2 for 4 with a SB.  He’s now hitting .283.  I’m not saying he’ll be usable this year but he really does seem to love proving critics wrong.  Except for critics that bemoan he only bangs hot chicks.

Homer Bailey – Two straight winning starts against the Astros with a sub-1.00 ERA/WHIP and 10 Ks.   I really think this could be the year where he has a month of promising starts in between getting shelled and being hurt.  Oh wait, he did that in 2009 and 2010 too.  Well, he’s traditionally been an awfully slow starter (as in 8.00+ ERA, 2.00ish WHIP in his first starts of April/May) so maybe he’s turning over a new leaf.  If you need an SP, might as well take a flyer.  Just bench him after his first bad start and drop him after his second consecutive bad start.

Tim Lincecum – 8 shutout innings with 9 Ks but couldn’t get the win.  Has anyone figured out how he’s actually gained fastball speed this year (92.9 MPH this year vs. 92.4 in 2009 and 91.3 in 2010)?  Aren’t you supposed to come back weaker after pitching a full regular + post-season?  Couldn’t he share this knowledge with Phil Hughes and Javier Vazquez for humanitarian reasons?  Suffice it to say, if Lincecum is throwing 93 MPH, I’d say he’s the best pitcher in fantasy baseball.  (You want to argue Halladay, fine…but Lincecum pitches in a cozier park and has a better K-rate)

Ian Kennedy - Matched Lincecum zero for zero for 8 innings getting 8 Ks along the way.  That’s now a 5 start run where Kennedy has thrown 36 innings of sub 2.00 ERA with nearly a K per inning.  Hear that sound – it’s the buy low window slamming against the pane.  (Gloating moment:  traded Brandon League + David Aardsman for Kennedy in one of our expert leagues last week.)

Rajai Davis - 2 SBs.  For the love of SAGNOF!

Geovany Soto - Left the game in the first inning with a left groin strain.  He’ll have an MRI on his groin tomorrow.  I wonder if they make him get in the big MRI machine or if he just has to thrust into it.  Either way, I’m thinking a groin injury is bad for a catcher and he’ll either miss a week or go on the DL.  In shallow leagues, I’d consider dropping Soto and start playing catcher roulette on the waiver wire.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 9th HR but is just 4 for his last 42.  If you’re going to be a binge hitter, I guess playing at a field named after a beer is fitting.

Ted Lilly - Managed his first solid road start and win in 4 tries with 2 ERs/5 baserunners/4 Ks in 6 IP at Pittsburgh.  Until proven otherwise this year, I’d consider Lilly like an honorary Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and very cautiously in pitcher-friendly matchups but sit him otherwise.  Fun stat – in 2009-2010 with Chicago and LA, Lilly has a 0.94 home WHIP (compared to about a 1.22 WHIP on the road which still isn’t bad…but his road WHIP going into this start was 1.91).

Francisco Liriano - Rest easy, Johnny Vander Meer.  Your consecutive no-hitter streak is safe.  Liriano resembled the pitcher he was every other start this year vs. the no-hitter – giving up 4 ER and 6 baserunners in only 3 innings.  To be fair, Liriano was sick going into the start – he had made the mistake of watching the Twins offense during his off-days.

John Danks – Now 0-6.  Danks for nothing!  This was his worst start of the year:  5 IP/6 ER/12 baserunners.  But in his other 7 starts, he’s managed 6+ innings, 4 or less unearned runs, and 36 Ks in 47 IP.  So I’d hold onto him or consider him a buy low candidate.

Brett Anderson – Last night against Texas:  4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners.  April 30th start against Texas – 5 IP, 13 baserunners, 7 ER.  Against everyone else, much much better.  Moral of story:  Don’t mess with Texas.

Roger Bernadina - Got a chance to hit leadoff as Desmond and Espinosa have been awful there.  Went 0-for-3 but managed 2 runs and a SB.  So RB didn’t bring the roast beef but at least provided some horsey sauce.

Chris Carpenter – A depressive win over Chicago with 15 baserunners and 4 ER in 7 innings.  This is his third straight start giving up 10 or more hits.  A Carpenter hasn’t been responsible for this many hits since the 1970′s.  Carpenter will be better than this but I’d trade him if you can find someone who’ll focus on his 2009-2010 stats when determining value.

Rene Tosoni - The Twins rookie OF hit a HR in his 2nd start in the last 5 games.  Even if gets the starting role, he’s a marginal player so don’t let him haunt your dreams like he did to Guy Pearce’s character in LA Confidential.

Javier Vazquez – On bereavement leave.  Mourning the loss of his fastball.

Ike Davis – The Mets best hitter so far this year strained his calf.  The Mets training crew ran to Ike but he slapped them when they tried to help.  Late word is that he may play tomorrow but a strained calf usually means a stint on the DL so I’m skeptical.  A strained calf for the Mets usually means a denial of the injury, then a denial on the severity of the injury, then a 60-day DL stint where we find out it’s a torn calf, a denial that it’s a torn calf, and then a father-in-law gets beat up in front of children.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (7) | 2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [94 – 68] AL Central
AAA: [49 – 95] International League – Rochester
AA: [44 – 98] Eastern League – New Britian
A+: [64 – 74] Florida League – Fort Myers
A: [71 – 65] Midwest League – Beloit
Rk: [41 – 25] Appalachian League – Elizabethtown

The Run Down
As a Twins fan I try to be as objective as possible, typically leaning towards harsher judgments of their players and prospects. For example, Danny Valencia inspires as much excitement for me as receiving a sweater from my dear me-ma. Pleasantly to every non-Twins fan – who thought he’d be the second coming of Adrian Beltre – Valencia provided great value for a team that hasn’t had a solid third basemen since Corey Koskie in the early part of the past decade. This year, the pitching is thin behind Kyle Gibson but the Twins pulled off some major amateur signings of Miguel Sano and Max Kepler-Rozycki. Aaron Hicks is developing slowly and 2010′s first round draft pick has the potential to perform like the 2010 Kyle Gibson. With a 2011 farm ranking of 13, the Twins ranking slipped due to trading Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.

Graduated Prospects
#6 (3B) Danny Valencia; #17 (RHP) Alex Burnett; #20 (RHP) Jeff Manship; #27 (C) Jose Morales;

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – (LHP) David Bromberg; #7 (RHP) Carlos Gutierrez; #16 (LHP) Tyler Robertson; (RHP)
Kyle Waldrop
Hitters – #14 (1B/OF) Chris Parmelee; #13 (OF) Joe Benson; #5 (OF) Ben Revere

Players of Interest
All rankings are from Baseball America 2010 with information from Baseball America 2010 and 2011 along with John Sickels Prospect Handbook 2010 and 2011.

Hitters
#5 Ben Revere | CF | D.o.B: 5-3-88 | Stats (AA): .305/.331/.363 | 361 AB | 15 XBH | 1 Hr | .056 ISO | 41:32 K:BB | 36/13 SB/CS | .339 BABIP
All speed and no power make Revere the perfect horsemen to shout, “Juan Pierre is coming!” See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number five.

#13 Joe Benson | OF | D.o.B: 3-5-88 | Stats (A+/AA): ..259/.343/.538 | 459 AB | 65 XBH | 27 Hr | .279 ISO | 136:47 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .350 BABIP (A+); .300 BABIP
Aggressive hitter who is prone to strikeouts. Has five-tool abilities but is average across the board. Great raw power. Scouts say he has “center field range with a right fielder’s arm.” Speed trails only Ben Revere’s in the system. Could replace Michael Cuddyer as early as 2012. Still has work to refine his game. Could be a nice 30/20 with poor average player if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number four.

#14 Chris Parmelee | 1B/OF | D.o.B: 2-24-88 | Stats (A+/AA): .285/.356/.401 | 491 AB | 38 XBH | 8 Hr | .116 ISO | 81:56 K:BB | 3/3 SB/CS | .410 BABIP (A+); .313 BABIP (AA)
Parmelee has struggled to hit for power at the higher levels as stated by his slash line of .275/.341/.389 in 411 AB at Double-A over the past two years. He has plus-raw power but hasn’t be able to utilize this feat within his line drive swing. Defensively, he is adequate at best manning first. It feels like Parmelee has been touted forever because he has; this will be his sixth professional season and local sports writers have been watching him since day one. He needs to refine his hitting approach, increase defensive play and tap into his power to have any relevance going forward. Parmelee is a member of the 40-man roster. At just 23, he’s nearing the end of his prospect glory days. With Morneau’s concussions, he could be up sooner if things start going his way. Watch him start at Double-A to start the 2011 season. Current BA ranking is number 19.

#12 Rene Tosoni | RF | D.o.B: 7-2-86 | Stats (AA): .270/.369/.422 | 185 AB | 16 XBH | 4 Hr | .152 ISO | 52:25 K:BB 3/1 SB/CS | .351 BABIP
After a career year in 2009, Tosoni injured his right shoulder in spring. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled before being placed on DL in June. Even with an injury ridden season, he was added to the 40 man roster. Tosoni has 20/10 potential with a solid average. He could be another Hunter Pence or just another fourth outfielder. Current BA ranking is number 12.

Pitchers
#3 Kyle Gibson | RHP | D.o.B: 10-23-87 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 7.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 152 IP | 2.96 ERA | 2.92 FIP (A+); 3.08 FIP (AA); 3.20 FIP (AAA) | 1.15 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.1 H/9 | .274 BABIP (A+); .304 BABIP (AA); .245 BABIP (AAA)
He’s a top 35 ranked prospect in all of baseball. He has a 86 to 92 MPH fastball with good command. He has a two-seamer with good movement (sink and cut). He also throws a plus slider and a plus changeup. Has the ability to induce a lot of groundballs (2.77 GO/AO). His strikeouts decreased at each level. In 43 1/3 innings at High-A he had a 8.3 K/9, in 93 innings at Double-A he had a 7.5 K/9 and in 15 2/3 innings at Triple-A he had a 5.2 K/9. Ceiling is a number one starter. Floor is a number three starter. Should start at Triple-A and receive a midseason promotion to save arbitration time. See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number one.

#9 David Bromberg | RHP | D.o.B: 9-14-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): 6.7 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 151 1/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 3.62 FIP (AA); 4.68 FIP (AAA) | 1.32 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .315 BABIP (AA); .257 BABIP (AAA)
Had solid year but nothing spectacular. Sounds like they should give him a 4 year $16 million contract to him a la Nick Blackburn. He throws the same average fastball between 88 and 92 MPH with an average curve and a sufficient changeup. Could get some action as a spot starter or a righty killer from the bullpen. Current BA ranking is number 13.

Scott Diamond | LHP | D.o.B: 7-30-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 158 2/3 IP | 3.46 ERA | 3.15 FIP (AA); 3.34 FIP (AAA) | 1.39 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9.4 H/9 | .355 BABIP (AA); .291 BABIP (AAA)
A Rule-5 Draft pick, Diamond must stay on the major league squad or be returned to Atlanta. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with good sink (read: groundball pitcher) with a slider and changeup that are average at best. His ceiling is a number four or five starter. Nothing special but in deep leagues could provide solid value over other retreads. Current BA ranking is number 29.

Anthony Slama | RHP | D.o.B: 1-6-84 | Stats (AAA): 10.2 K/9 | 4.4 BB/9 | 65 1/3 IP | 2.20 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.12 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 5.6 H/9 | .235 BABIP
High strikeout reliever alert!  Slama has a deceptive delivery but average stuff. He throws an 88 to 92 MPH fastball and slurve and a changeup. His stats stated he should be given an opportunity to pitch from the bullpen. We’ll see if Gardenhire is willing to bypass his fickle ways. Current BA ranking is number 28.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#1 Aaron Hicks | CF | D.o.B: 10-2-89 | Stats (A): .279/.401/.428 | 423 AB | 41 XBH | 8 Hr | .149 ISO | 112:88 K:BB | 21/11 SB/CS | .359 BABIP
I don’t see him being as exciting as local writer or prospects mavens. Maybe that is because I am skewed by fantasy baseball. Power upside is 20 to 25 home runs, but he doesn’t appear to be hitting that ceiling. His 2010 season was quite a success even if he stayed at Single Low-A for the second year in a row. He has a patient hitting approach, good raw power, above-average speed and good defense. BA projects him to be another Denard Span with better defense. Any Twins fan should be excited about that, just not excited for the next Mike Cameron or any other 25/20 player you can think of. I expect him to be more of another 20/15 type player. Current BA ranking is number two.

#4 Miguel Sano | SS/3B | D.o.B: 5-11-93 | Stats (Rk): .291/.338/.466 | 148 AB | 18 XBH | 4 Hr | .175 ISO | 43:10 K:BB | 2/2 SB/CS | .422 BABIP
Eventually Sano will receive a Scouting the Unknown article. However, he still hasn’t played above Rookie ball. He has tremendous raw power – best in the system, think 30 home runs per year – with good bat speed, strong leverage and knack for recognizing pitches. Projects to play third long term. Current BA ranking is number three.

#10 Max Kepler-Rozycki| OF | D.o.B: 2-10-93 | Stats (Rk): .286/.346/.343 | 140 AB | 7 XBH| 0 Hr | .057 ISO | 6/1 SB/CS | 27:13 K:BB | .354 BABIP
The German son of ballet dancers, Mr. Kepler-Rozycki is still very raw. Projecting him isn’t something Baseball America even tries to do. Instead, they just stated to be aware that he could be moderate power hitter with good defense and speed. Needs more at-bats in the minors before anyone can truly say anything relevant. Current BA ranking is number 11.

Pitchers
Alex Wimmers | RHP | D.o.B: 11-1-88 | Stats (A+): 13.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 15 2/3 IP | .57 ERA | 1.22 FIP | .70 WHIP | .0 Hr/9 | 3.4 H/9 | .200 BABIP
Drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, Wimmers projects to be a perfect middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. He throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good command and control. He also throws a changeup (his best pitch) and a curveball. Should return to High-A and be promoted mid-season to Double-A if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number 7.

Liam Hendriks | RHP | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A/A+): 8.7 K/9 | 1.1 BB/9 | 108 2/3 IP | 1.74 ERA | 1.35 FIP (A); 2.14 FIP (A+) | .84 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .203 BABIP (A); .284 BABIP (A+)
Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oye! Oye! Oye! This Aussie skyrocketed up the Twins farm rankings. Hendriks 2010 season was one of the few bright spots – sure wasn’t their upper minors win-loss record. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with sinking action and finished the season sitting between 90 and 93 MPH. He also have a good changeup and a curveball that is slight above-average. With great command, a strong work ethic and these numbers, Hendriks will force himself into the major he can do this again. Expect to see him return to High-A to start the year. Current BA ranking is number six.

Minnesota Twins 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009):
2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

Pitchers
#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.