Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hello, new readers who found us from Googling the title!  You probably weren’t expecting a fantasy baseball site.  Don’t let that stop you.  We’re an equal opportunity offender.  And if the title didn’t interest you, how about Giants to add Bum to ‘Cum topped staff?  Hello, our newest readers that didn’t find us due to the title, but did find us due to that last sentence!  You probably will be offended.  But say the title was, “Giants ‘Cum Led Staff Points To Bum Insertion.” Now if you found us due to that hypothetical title.  Well, ahoy there!  Don’t even get me started on Filthy Sanchez.  All right, a detailed Madison Bumgarner outlook can be found where it says, “Madison Bumgarner outlook.”  Bumgarner is risky, but in the NL West and with his stuff, worth a look in deep mixed and NL-Only leagues.  In keepers, pursue him aggressively.  So far this year, he has a 47:20 K:BB ratio and a 3.13 ERA in 69 innings.  I’d definitely take a flyer (is it flier?) in certain mixed leagues where I needed the upside.  Still, there’s a bunch of arms I’d want over him.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brett Cecil – Besides having a name of a 70′s British pinup, Brett Cecil has a 0.99 WHIP and decent Ks.  Sure, the matchups are terrible, but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be owned in every league.  For what it’s Wuertz, Cecil has appeared in three Buy columns dating back to April.  Watch out, deaf ears, something’s falling!

Felipe Paulino – Sometimes his pitching looks like Ronnie Paulino, while Ronnie’s doing a number two.  In NL-Only and deep mixed leagues, I’d grab Paulino for his Ks and not much else.  But Ks are Ks are Ks, says the letter L prematurely.

Brad Lincoln – Another NL-Only and/or keeper guy.  Oh, and next time you want to make a splash, Lincoln, don’t follow Strasburg.  You’re welcome!

Jason Hammel – I wouldn’t start him at home just yet.  Not worth the agita.  Last year on the road, a 3.13 ERA.  He credits his road success to an Entertainment Coupon Book that allows him to get all the best deals no matter what city he’s in.  And not having to pitch in Coors.  Yeah, that too.

Jon Niese – Just went over him.  Scroll or click.  Scrolling could help you lose 17 calories.

Alfredo Simon – Juan Schmoil says he wants Simon to be the closer.  Granted, he’s probably never seen him actually pitch.  Nevertheless!

David Hernandez – SAGNOF!  Oh, and should you own two O’s closers?  It’s not ideal, but I am on a few teams until the shituation shakes out.  Just think how fun it can be when the O’s don’t win for a week then they finally get a save opp and the bullpen gives up 5 earned in a third of an inning.  Fantasy baseball, this IS my outlet!

John Axford – He is currently the closer.  Man, I wish I was in a league where he was still available.  Like 65% of ESPN leagues.

Brad Lidge – Owned in only 86% of ESPN leagues.  So 14% of ESPN leagues are owned by Philly fans.

Carlos Santana – Just went over him too.  Don’t believe me?  Click here.

Jack Cust – Three True Outcome player:  strikes out, homers from your bench, homers from waivers.

Jose Tabata – I just went over him.  You did?  Hmm… I must’ve been fertilizing in FarmVille. Thanks for heads up, Random Italicized Voice.  You can find Jose Tabata fantasy info at that link-a-ma-jig.

Andres Torres – I’ve probably been remiss by not talking about him, but he’s still only owned in 20% of ESPN leagues, so there’s still time.  Torres has 11 steals in 168 ABs while batting around .300.  He’s old as dog balls but he’s currently hitting.

Neil Walker – Walker is hitting for average and should get Runs out of the two hole like me after Taco Bell.

Sean Rodriguez – He’s a 25 homer, .240 average guy, in the best case scenario, but he’s currently hitting, so there’s that.

Reid Brignac – Actually having a better season than Sean Rodriguez, but hitting .211 over the last 7 games so there’s that, the sequel.

SELL

Mike Stanton – BUT YOU JUST TOLD US TO BUY HIM!  I know, Mr. Caps, let me explain.  OKAY, KEEP IT SHORT, THE COPS ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  *calling off*  ONE SECOND!  I’m praying Stanton hits a few homers this weekend and his value goes even higher than it already is.  Right now, Stanton’s the hottest thing since the bread Strasburg sliced.  His hype is way above his value.  What’s Stanton going to give you?  The same as Carlos Lee?  That’s the best case scenario.  I think you can get Carlos Lee and a donkeycorn in a trade of Stanton.  Don’t trade Stanton for a bag of creamed corn.  Mostly because creamed corn should not be in a bag.  Ever.

Buster Posey – I am such a hater, ain’t I?  I’m gonna drop a double caveat on you.  I wouldn’t trade Stanton or Posey in keeper leagues.  In one year leagues, Posey’s tradeable if there’s guys like Soto, Montero, Suzuki, etc. on your waivers.  He’s not really that much better than any of those other guys, especially “etc.”  That guy can mollywhop!

Nick Markakis – This guy’s taking the career path of Garrett Atkins.  I’m not quite to the point where I’d drop Markakis, but if you can get anything at all for him, I’d go for it.  Really, what’s he going to give you?  20 homers and 7 steals?  I just popped a zit in the mirror and it read, “Yeah, so?”

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Cork ‘The Professor’ Gaines @ Rays Index.

1) Last year, the Rays offense was a stat projector’s nightmare.  BJ Upton (.241/11HRs) and Burrell fell well below projections while Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist came out of nowhere to put together some top-notch middle infield seasons.  In 2010, whom do you think will be the biggest hitting surprise and disappointments on the Rays?

Well, I don’t know how much of a surprise it will be, but I fully expect Pat Burrell and BJ Upton to rebound significantly from their ’09 seasons. Will Burrell hit 30+ home runs like he did in ’07-’08? Probably not. But supposedly he is healthier, and I have to believe that the embarrassment of ’09 and the lure of a new contract will drive him to be better. Like Burrell, Upton was never 100% in ’09. His shoulder has been an issue in each of the past seven seasons. If he can stay healthy and rediscover his ability to use the entire field, this could be his break-out season.

As for disappointments, I worry about Carl Crawford. There is going to be a lot written about his pending free agency and a lot of questions will be asked. Every time the Rays play on the road he is going to face the same questions. And it will be a circus whenever the Rays play the Yankees. And it will all erupt as we get closer to the trading deadline. Will he be able to keep that from affecting him mentally? That is a lot to ask for.

2) The Rays remain one of the more productive SB teams.  Give the SB over/under on the following:  Crawford – 45, BJ Upton – 40, Jason Bartlett – 20, Ben Zobrist – 15, Evan Longoria – 10, Carlos Pena – 1.

Crawford should be an easy over. If you look at his stolen base rates, he always struggles later in the season. The turf at the Trop takes its toll on his legs. This off-season he installed a new workout program to keep his legs fresh throughout the season.

I’m going to go under on Upton because there is a good chance he will spend the majority of the season batting in the 7-hole, with some decent bats in front of him. He just might not have the opportunities.

Bartlett: Over (Easy. He will leading off most days.)

Zobrist: Under (Should be close, but he is getting older, and was never that fast)

Longoria: Under (9 last year, but in only 9 attempts)

Pena: Over (Even Dioner Navarro had 5 last year. Everybody runs under JoeMa)

3) The Rays have been flush in #3-#5 starting pitchers over the past couple of years (including the traded Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) – some with upside, some without.  For 2010 purposes only, do you any of the following quartet have a good shot at a sub-4.00 ERA and/or 150+Ks – Jeff Niemann, David Price, Andy Sonnanstine, and Wade Davis.

At their best, Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine will give you a 4.00 ERA and 150 Ks. Sonny is more likely going to be in Durham as the emergency starter, so he is a ‘no.” Niemann should be close to those numbers, but he seems to need extra rest a lot. Both Price and Davis will be free to throw 200 innings this year. Both will give you something closer to 170-180 Ks. I think Davis will be around a 4.00 ERA. The big question in my mind is Price. I think he can be anywhere from 3.50 to 4.50. And I wouldn’t be surprised at either end.

4) Which of the following prospects is the best option for ‘keeper’ leagues:  Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, or Sean Rodriguez?  Will any of them see extended playing in 2010?

In a keeper league I would want them in this order: Jennings, Davis, Rodriguez, Brignac.

I don’t think Davis will be anything better than a #3 starter, but he should be dependable in that role. He is the type of pitcher that you can stick in the lineup and you will have a good idea what he is going to give you each year. And he is durable enough that he should stay healthy. Jennings on the other hand, has a chance to be something very special. And if he can stay healthy, he will be.

Brignac is no longer much of a prospect with the bat. It will be decent, but never very good. Rodriguez on the other hand should hit for decent power at the big league level and he will see time at 2B, SS, 3B and in the OF.

Davis should give the Rays 32 + starts this season. Rodriguez will likely get 80+ starts this season and could be an everyday player in 2011. Brignac could platoon at second base but may never be an everyday player with the Rays. And as good as Jennings is, he is still relatively inexperienced. And the Rays value experience in their prospects. I would not be surprised if Jennings doesn’t make his debut until 2011.

5) Now that the Twins have moved out of the Metrodome, there’s no doubt that the Rays play in the ugliest field in baseball (feel free to argue though).  The Rays don’t even have the nicest stadium named after an orange juice brand (Minute Maid > Tropicana).  If the Rays were able to get a new stadium from the city, which of the following nods to the Rays illustrious past would make the best attraction:

a) Chuck Lamar’s Left Field Pawn Shop – Bring us your old and washed-up stuff and we’ll pay you too much for it!  Bring in unused useless items and we’ll swap them up for future gems.
b) Sweet Lou’s Tropical Bar & Lounge – Tired of going to bars and beating yourself up for not taking the hottest chick home?  Come to Sweet Lou’s where you can take a break and be congratulated for taking the 2nd ugliest girl in the place home.
c) Wade Boggs’ Chicken & Beer Shack – Chicken only available before games.  Beer only available after games.  During games, you can play arcade games preset to almost be at high score.  Throw in a token amount of time and celebrate your milestone!
d) Dewon Brazelton’s Pitching Area – See how fast you can throw!  Speed only credited if the ball is thrown outside the provided strike zone.
e) Rocco Baldelli’s Trattoria – Open periodically when the chef isn’t sick, injured, or tired.

Ha! Yes, the Rays need a new stadium, that is more because The Trop is located in a terrible spot. And yes it is ugly, but watching a game there is very underrated. The seats are comfortable. The sightlines are great. When the crowds are large (rare, I know) it is reminiscent of the Metrodome in the 80s and 90s (very loud, with a great homefield advantage).

And for the life of me, I have never understood why domes are taboo in baseball. We are talking about a sport that comes to a screeching halt in rain. And yet there are at least 6 teams in the NFL that play in domes and that is somehow OK.

Would I prefer to attend a game outside on a nice 80degree day with no humidity? Of course. But that ain’t St. Pete.

(Note:  Cork diplomatically didn’t choose one of the above so please feel free to choose one in the comments below.  We’ll make sure to forward the winner to Tampa Bay management.)

Justin Morneau has a stress fracture in his lower back.  Joe Mauer missed a month of the season with back pains.  I understand the Twins are a small market team with fiduciary concerns, but it might be a good investment to provide firmer mattresses for the team.  Punto can continue to sleep on the couch, if you like.  Morneau will be out for the season.  In non-keepers, you can drop him.  Cuddyer will start at 1st; he hit a homer yesterday.  Since Morneau was hitting .201 Post-All-Star Break, this isn’t the worst news for you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes -  If he were on the Phillies, he’d be hailed as having one of the greatest seasons a closer has ever had.  But when you’re the closer for The Town that Bobby Grich Built, you need to save at least 60 games with a 2 ERA.  41 saves and a 4 ERA just ain’t going to cut it.  Scioscia’s a tinkerer — Howie Kendrick’s hot…  Okay, we’re going to start Maicer Izturis! — So the latest is that Fuentes could lose saves to Kevin Jepsen.  I don’t think Jepsen will collect more than a few, but if you’re in a tight race for saves, you may want to grab him.

Reid Brignac – 4-for-4, HR and 3 RBIs yesterday with his first start in a week.  It would be wise for the Rays to give Brignac at-bats.  Though teams aren’t always wise.

Matt Wieters - 1-for-3, batting .265 on the year with 5 homers.  February Grey emailed me this, “I’m preparing Wieters to Posey comparisons.”

Adam Lind – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  In the preseason top 80 outfielders post, I said, “Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I also harped on him in April telling everyone to grab him.  Next year, there will be comparisons of Wieters for 2010 to Lind in 2009.  Trust me, when a big time prospect fails, I’m all over them.  Ask the People Against the Fantasy Ownership of Alex Gordon.

Jason Frasor – 1 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  Well, that’s one way to get Downs put back in the closer role.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Has a near 2 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  Yup.

Jay Bruce – Returns from the DL.  I’m going to say Jay Bruce is the best outfielder in the history of the world.  And I’d be lying.  Jay Bruce is perhaps the most underperforming outfielder in the history of 2009.  That’s closer to the truth.  Jay Bruce can not help you whatsoever.  That’s lying again.  Jay Bruce might be able to give some slight value in deep leagues.  Yes, that sounds about right.

Brandon Phillips – HR yesterday.  Now has three straight 20/20 seasons.  Cust kayin’.

Brett Tomko – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Whatever Tomko’s stats are smoking it’s probably not legal.

Cliff Pennington – 2-for-4, and hitting near .450 in the last week.  Plus, his name sounds like he wears plaid trousers.

Ryan Dempster – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Has given up 4 earned runs in every other start for almost a month now.  If I were a betting man, I might say 6 IP, 4 ER vs. the Cards for his next start.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5, one steal.  He hit a huge dip over the weekend, going 1-for-11, but hopefully that was just a matter of playing in Petco.  No one wants to provide offense in Petco, it’s just the way it is.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  I’m still undecided, but I might draft Lincecum in the first round next year just to see how it feels to own him.

Ricky Nolasco – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’s nice and all to have a solid K to walk ratio, but walk someone if it’s going to help you avoid giving up 7 earned runs!

Clayton Kershaw – Out at least 10 more days.  He originally hurt himself shagging flies.  Last person to hurt themselves like that was Jenna Jameson.

On Sunday, Akinori Iwamura was carted off the field. (No, it wasn’t some sorta Japanese custom when a player makes an out.)  So Reid Brignac may get some short-term value if the Rays play him.  Right now, they don’t seem committed to that plan.  And, frankly, I can see why.  He hasn’t exactly been tearing it up in Triple A.  The Rays should go to Ben Zobrist aka The Best Home Run Hitter In The World With The Last Name Zobrist.  With shortstop eligibility and potentially 2nd base, Zobrist will have value getting everyday at-bats.  Much has been made of Zobrist’s out-of-the-blue power surge.  The only explanation that seems to be out there is that he worked in the offseason with Jaime Cevallos, The Swing Mechanic.  (Turns out he helped Little Jake Current too!)  Honestly, I don’t think it matters much for Ben Zobrist since he already has shortstop eligibility.  It’s worth a flier to see if the power continues.  Just don’t cut anyone too worthwhile for that flier, including Little Jake Current — he’s got power to all fields!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Troy Percival – Hit the DL and made J.P. Izzywheelfourson the closer.  I grabbed Nelson and Wheeler anywhere I could.  This could easily become Isringhausen’s… Or Balfour’s… Or Howell’s.  Unlike the Nats ‘pen, the guy who wins the Rays raffle will have value so it’s worth grabbing one and praying it ends up being your guy.  The Rays used Izzy last on Saturday like he was a closer, though it was a non-save situation.  If you don’t have room in 12 team leagues and shallower, I’d cut Percy.  The next game he may be closing is the Hall of Famers vs. Non-Hall of Famers Game, which would take place during the All-Star Game festivites, if I had my way.  Like you wouldn’t pay to see Lee Smith try to prove his case against Gary Carter.  Would have to be better than watching Kenny Mayne throw like a girl.  (I’m still holding out hope for the Fattest Guy With No Power Home Run Derby too.  C’mon, Sandoval vs. Billy Butler!  Or everyone’s (soon-to-be) favorite contest, Worst Strikeout Pitcher Faces Off Against Chris Davis!  C’mon, Joel Pineiro!)

Jesus Guzman – Word out of the Tenderloin is Ishikawa isn’t long for the every day job.  Makes sensei.  He is Sucki-san.  If Guzman somehow pulls himself into an every day job, could be huge in ESPN leagues where he’s inexplicably a shortstop.  Though Guzman did not play on Sunday.  *shakes fist* Bochy!

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3 HRs in the last seven games.  I know, Padres hitters are yawnstipating, but the Kouz is hot.

Dexter Fowler – 7-for-15 in his 4 games and batting leadoff.  Has been as good recently as Ian Stewart’s been bad.

Brad Lidge – Hey, whaddya know?  Another blown save!  He has a 9.19 ERA on the year.  Philly says there will be no closer change.  I say yet.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, which should’ve been one because of a misplay in the outfield.  This was a heartbreaking no decision (for me).

Matt Lindstrom – He embarrassed himself and his family on Saturday then came in on Sunday and retired two guys and walked three before being relieved by Kiko Calero.  Kiko’s pitching the best in the Marlins bullpen, but Nunez hasn’t been awful… Okay, he’s been just all right.  I think Nunez gets the first chance when Lindstrom’s replaced, but it might be Calero.  If you’re a save vulture, you should be grabbing one of them now, because Lindstrom doesn’t seem long for the closer role.

Kelly Johnson – HRs in back-to-back games.  He’s sitting at .252 on the year, he can get up to .280 within a few weeks.

Joe Mauer – Another game, another homer.  I heard Selena Roberts was seen digging through his trash.

Manny Delcarmen – Been lights out so far in middle relief.  Rumors are swirling that he might be headed to the Nats to be their closer with Nick Johnson headed to the Sawx, pushing Big Crapi to the bench.  I don’t think the Sawx have the cojones to bench Papi, they’d have to convince him to go to the Disgraceful List.  In deep leagues, Delcarmen should be owned, though some Mr. B’s probably already have him.

Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, Jeremy Reed, Ramon Castro, Ramon Martinez – Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 New York Mets!

Adam Jones – Hit his 10th homer yesterday while stealing his 4th bag.  Should cruise to 25/15, then Jamaica.

Alexei Ramirez – 2 HRs this weekend.  Mazel tov!

Mark Buehrle – Only Mark Buehrle could give up only one run after surrendering 12 hits while striking out only 3.  Cust kayin’.

Joel Hanrahan – Picked up the save with a perfect inning.  Apparently, he’s the closer again.

Adam Dunn – 2 HRs, 6 RBIs.  That’s not a donkey, this is a donkey.

Emmanuel Burriss – The Giants also announced they would be putting Frandsen into a platoon with Burriss.  Burriss has speed; Frandsen offers nothing.

Pablo Sandoval – Sat out yesterday with elbow trouble and will go for tests on Monday.   I hope they test his cholesterol.

Chris Iannetta – Hit the DL with a hamstring strain.   Jessica Alba and Joe Torre hybrid, Yorvit Torrealba, will have some short-term value in deep leagues.  For catchers that could be available in some leagues, I’d go Snyder, Salty, Torrealba or Diaz, in that order.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-4 yesterday, 3 HRs in the last 6 games.  Someone’s in the Way Back Machine.

Josh Outman – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, Zero Ks.  When you don’t strikeout one Diamondback, I’m not buying.

Jason Giambi – Second straight game with a homer.  For those in shallow leagues, he hits them in bunches.  Some would say in “cycles.”

Barry Zito – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Glad the old baked Zito showed up just as I added him.

Fred Lewis – Two games, two home runs.  I wish he’d just get to 15/15 in a month then I could drop him, but that’s not how these things work.  Except for Mark Reynolds.

Derrek Lee – Missed Sunday’s game with an undisclosed illness.  I thought it was called Suckitis.

Francisco Rodriguez – Might be the first time I’ve mentioned him in roundup.  (I tend not to mention guys that are doing what they’re supposed to be.)  K-Rod is suffering from back spasms, so the Mets are inserting Putz into their opening.  K-Rod said he’s feeling much better after being medicated.  In other news, K-Rod’s addicted to painkillers.  Sounds like he’ll be back by the end of the week at the latest.

Brandon Phillips – Hairline fracture on thumbkin.  Phillips said, “I told (the Reds) I don’t want to go on the DL.”  Um, okay.  And then you sit out yesterday’s game?  This sounds worse than the Reds are letting on.

Joey Votto – Ear infection had him benched on Sunday after hitting 2 homers on Saturday.  I totally feel for Votto.  Last time I had an ear infection, I rolled around for days crying.  Then again, I was 6 months old.

Brandon McCarthy – 9 IP, 0 ER and 6 Ks.  Solid game, but he’s way too unpredictable to pick up in mixed leagues.   As for this game, maybe McCarthy thought he was facing the Reds.