Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball, the 1950s

April 09, 2009 By: Lou Poulas Category: Fantasy Baseball HOF, Lou Poulas, May's Daily Notes 22 Comments →

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame has spent an unhealthy amount of time identifying the best fantasy seasons, careers, All Stars, and Hall of Famers of the fantasy era. The Fantasy Era began in 1980, and thus many great players of the 1980’s fall just short of enshrinement since their careers commenced in 1979 or earlier. This, along with the fact it’s just plain fun, has led us down the path of looking back in time, decade by decade, for the best fantasy players in baseballs history. We’ll be following reverse chronological order with the 1950s now taking center stage.

Previous Decades: 1970s, 1960s.

Famous for its pitching splendor, the 1960’s brought runs scoring back down to levels not seen since the deadball era of the 1910’s. Many casual fans do not realize the trend actually began a decade earlier, in 1951, which ushered in a 20-year era that mostly belonged to the starting pitcher.

The image below charts the average runs scored per game in Major League Baseball from 1903 to present. Runs scored declined almost 30% between the high point in 1950 (4.85 r/g) and 1968 (3.42 r/g).

Runs/Game

With relief pitchers not yet stereotyped solely into late inning roles, and starting pitchers routinely going the distance, the fantasy game was nothing like we see today. The best batting stats of the decade seem rather typical:

AVG:   .365 – Mickey Mantle (1957)
RS:    132 – Mickey Mantle (1956)
HR:    52 – Mickey Mantle (1956)
RBI:   145 – Al Rosen (1953)
SB:    56 – Luis Aparacio (1959)

However, the effect of the era is apparent once we move to the pitching side of the equation:

W:     28 – Robin Roberts (1952)
ERA:   1.97 – Billy Pierce (1955)
WHIP:  0.95 – Warren Hacker (1952)
SO:    263 – Herb Score (1956)
SV:    27 – Ellis Kinder (1953)

Wins are up significantly and saves are down to the lowest levels we’ve come across. Not shown here are the incredible innings pitched totals as well. No pitcher since 1980 has reached 300 innings pitched, while the 1950s alone had seven.

(An interesting side note, though not germane to a discussion on the 1950s, is the fact 300 inning occurrences increased through 1969, before declining into non existence about a dozen years later.)

Finally, before getting to the players, below is our customary graph of the basic fantasy batting stats. As expected, batting averages declined throughout the1950s, starting off at around .265 and ending 10 points lower. Stolen bases increased significantly, starting at one stolen base ever 130 at bats, and ending at a stolen base every 92. Home runs were fairly constant, though occurring at a higher rate in the earliest part of the decade.

Steals/Homers

Keep in mind that this decade was the last in which every year featured the 154 game schedule. In 1961 baseball expanded to 162 games, more than a 5% increase, allowing season totals forever after too look a bit better than those that came before.

Top-10 Players of the 1950s

10) Eddie Mathews, 3B
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.1
Overall FBHOF Score: 71.7

Mathews smacked 25 home runs in his 1952 rookie year and 16 “fantasy worthy” seasons later ended his career well past the 500 HR plateau at 512. He reached 40 or more four times in the ‘50s and is currently ranked as the 3rd best third bagger of all time, behind Mike Schmidt and George Brett

His fantasy finest season came in ’59. Batting .306 / .390 / .593, he also added 118 R, 46 HR, and 114 RBI in his stat line, and finished the year as the 5th best batter in baseball. A cross decade star, Mathews has four 11+ FBHOF points seasons to his credit in the 1950s, and two 13 point seasons to start the 1960s.

9) Minnie Minoso, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.4
Overall FBHOF Score: 68.0

A very good major leaguer, Minoso was even better as a fantasy baseball player. The seven time all star had the same number 10+ point seasons in the decade and was a rare 5-tool star. I am reminded of a modern day Bobby Abreu at his peak, only with a longer period of success.

During his career Minoso scored 90+ runs nine times; batted over .300 eight times; stole 17 or more bases seven times; and hit 19+ home runs or drove in 90 or more runners five times. His best season came in 1954:.320 AVG, 119 R, 19 HR, 116 RBI, 18 SB, 13.4 Points.

8. Stan Musial, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.3
Overall FBHOF Score: 71.9

“Stan The Man” is sold short by when analyzing his tenure within the 1950’s only. His career actually spans three decades and a few of his great seasons came in the 1960’s. Musial was pure hitter, one of the best baseball has ever seen. Including batters from the 1800s, Musial is among the all time greats in many career statistics:

.331 AVG – 30th
.417 OBP – 23rd
.559 SLG – 21st
.976 OPS – 14th
1949 RS – 9th
1951 RBI – 6th
725 2B – 3rd
6134 TB – 2nd

Fantasy wise, Musial was incredibly consistent in the 1950s, recording five seasons between 12.8 and 13.9 points. His 5 year peak during the decade was .341 AVG, 116 R, 29 HR, 109 RBI.

7) Hank Aaron, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.5
Overall FBHOF Score: 98.8

You may recall Aaron was ranked as the 2nd best player of the 1960s as well, and now that we’ve completed the review of the 1950’s, his career stat line is complete. It’s pure gold. Aaron is the second best fantasy baseball player we’ve ever seen, and he currently owns the all time mark for total career points.

In a span of 11 years, the outfielder has an unheard of ten seasons of 15 or more FBHOF points. I would be surprised if any player, even going back through the 1920s, could duplicate this feat. Six of Aaron’s best seven seasons occurred in the 1960s, the one outlier being 1959: .355 AVG, 39 HR, 116 R, 123 RBI, and 8 SB.

Aaron became fantasy eligible in 1954. One year later he reached 11 FBHOF Points and only dipped below 10 points eighteen years later in 1972.

6) Ernie Banks, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.6
Overall FBHOF Score: 77.4

“Mr. Cub’s” three best seasons came while he manned shortstop, but for his career he played more games at first base (1534 vs. 1050) than short and thus is considered a corner infielder for our purposes. I fibbed a bit as well; in fact, he was eligible at shortstop over the course of his six best season, a consecutive year stretch from 1955 through 1960.

During this time he averaged 41 HR, 101 R, 116 RBI, 5 SB, and batted .294. He was also a top-5 batter four times.

5) Warren Spahn, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 74.7

The first pitcher on our top-10 list, Span was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1973, alongside Roberto Clemente, the only two voted in by the BBWA this year. Like Musial, Spahn’s career covered three decades but he Spahn at lease, was at his best in the 1950’s. His best season came in 1953: 23 W, 1.06 WHIP, 2.10 ERA, and 148 K in 266 IP. As with most of his peers, he didn’t maintain a high (by today’s standards) strikeout rate.

Interestingly, and perhaps unfortunately, Spahn also saved three games. In 1953, only four major league pitchers recorded 15 or more saves, and Spahn therefore gets an inordinate amount of credit for his three. This nuance will be typical with many of the pitchers of his era and earlier. No doubt, had fantasy baseball been invented in 1950, Saves would not have been a core scoring statistic. We’re stuck with it though, and Spahn’s 29 career saves make positively impact his overall score.

4) Mickey Mantle, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 90.8

Moving from 5th place into 4th marks the beginning of a new tier of 1950s greats. The 8th through 5th slots are differentiated by just 0.4 FBHOF points. The jump into 4th is a full 1.0 FHBOF points. Deservedly so – Mantle was a hitting machine, and as we saw in the introduction, owns the best single season results in the decade in 3 of the 5 offensive fantasy stats.

Mantle was still great heading into the early 1960’s, but few in the history of the sport match his 19.0 point season in 1956.

His peak 5-year average during the decade: .322 AVG, 121 R, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 15 SB. His scores by year:

1951- 3.8
1952 – 10.8
1953 – 9.1
1954 – 10.9
1955 – 12.1
1956 – 19.0
1957 – 15.6
1958 – 15.8
1959 – 11.1

3) Duke Snider, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.8
Overall FBHOF Score: 80.0

Snider typically falls short in his inevitable comparison to Mantle and Willie Mays. All three were of course New York centerfielders during the 1950’s and all three were no brainer Hall of Fame selections, but at least in terms of fantasy baseball, Snider can run with Mantle – during the 1950’s at least.

When lining their best years up side by side, in order of greatness as opposed to chronological, the similarities are striking:

Snider        Mantle
17.67          18.98
15.11           15.80
14.68          15.58
14.65          12.06
11.98          11.14
10.80         10.94
10.16          10.83
9.64            9.07
5.98            3.84
3.70

In one of the most underrated seasons of all time, Snider in 1954 batted .336 with 132 R, 42 HR, 126 RBI, and 16 SB. He was the best fantasy batter of the season, for the second consecutive year. Mantle and (mostly) Mays would take honors in five of the next six seasons.

2) Robin Roberts, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 92.0

Really. In his New Historical Abstract, Bill James ranks Roberts as the 16th best pitcher of all time. He’s a Hall of Famer and a six time 20 game winner. He led his league 27 times in various important statistical categories. Yes, to this day, he gets little credit as one of the all time great pitchers.

Perhaps it was the era in which he pitched. Following Roberts good fortunes in the 1950’s came the greatest pitching era of all time. With this of course, came some of the greatest pitching names of all time – Koufax and Gibson plus significant single season performances of historical importance – Denny McLain’s 31 wins in 1968 and superb seasons out of Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale. Roberts never struck out 200 batters, never had an ERA under 2.50, nor a WHIP below 1.00.

What he did do was finish 6 of the 10 seasons in the Top-3, and four consecutive as the best overall pitcher in the game. From 1952-1955 he averaged 24 W, 1.07 WHIP, 2.90 ERA, 172 K’s, and 4 saves per season.

He’s on his own plane when looking at 4-year peak scores among starting pitchers of the 1950s:

17.4 – Robin Roberts
14.1 – Warren Spahn
11.8 – Early Wynn
11.7 – Billy Pierce
11.2 – Mike Garcia

1) Willie Mays, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 17.5
Overall FBHOF Score: 102.3

Through the 1950’s, Willie Mays is the greatest fantasy player of all time. His stats speak for themselves. Please pay particular attention to the sheer number of double digit FBHOF Point seasons, identified in the “score” column.

Willie Mays

Top 20 3rd Basemen for 2009 Fantasy Baseball

January 21, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 20 Comments →

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ’04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ’87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder

Top 20 1st Basemen for 2009 Fantasy Baseball

January 18, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 24 Comments →

The other day we went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and today we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. This was after going over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  All this can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings page.  This top 20 list could probably go to 40 and still have worthwhile names on it, so after we go through all the top 20 lists for every position, maybe I’ll add some more.  Is this the 28th day of Christmas or some shizz?  No, I’m just real giving like Bono and Chris Tucker on an Africa trip.  As with the catchers, the first basemen are broken up into tiers.  Also, there’s some guys below other guys that I want more. They’re below on this list because they can be drafted later than the other schmohawks.  Also, check out our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and 2009 projections:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Ryan Howard’s projections.

4. Mark Teixeira – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Lance Berkman – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Lance Berkman’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Votto.  I call this tier, “If you didn’t get one the 1st basemen in the first tiers, you better get one in this tier.”  I prefer a guaranteed 30 home run hitter from my 1st baseman, so I tend to miss Morneau.  And that’s not miss as in “long for.”  2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285

8. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine Adrian Gonzalez traded out of Petco.  Ah… Dare to dream. (Speaking of dreams, I had this dream where there’s two unicorns having sex and right before one… becomes satisfied, he practices the withdrawal method and does his business on a giant, oversized toothbrush.  And, in my home, that’s how toothpaste became known as unicorn jizz.  But I digress.)  2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280

9. Kevin Youkilis -  Morneau is very close to Youuuuuk and the former goes way before him.  (Is it just me, or does former and latter always trip you up?)  2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295

10. Joey Votto – I already went over why Votto’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  This doesn’t mean he’s going to outproduce the top guys on this list, but I could see Votto taking Berkman’s spot at number six for 2010.  I’m a big believer.  2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12

11. Derrek Lee – This a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Carlos Pena.  I call this tier, “For better or worse, you know what you’re getting with these guys.”  Derrek Lee has played in 150+ games in 7 of the past 8 years and besides 2005 when he hit 46 home runs, he’s never really showed much power.  When I was writing this up, I was looking at how Derrek Lee’s career has taken shape and I realized something.  In 2009, Lee’s going to be 33 years old for the majority of the season and he’s not putting together a HOF career.  For some reason, I thought he was a much better player stat-wise.  This was really a personal observation that didn’t have much to do with fantasy baseball.  Carry on.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8

12. Garrett Atkins – The Holliday trade to the A’s hurts Atkins value too.  And, frankly, for the last three years, Atkins was hurting his own value.  He’s gone from 29 to 25 to 21 home runs since 2006.  If you were taking the SATs, the next number in that sequence would be 17.  His slugging percentage has been following suit, as well.  The way Atkins is headed, he’s going to need 2nd base eligibility to have any value by 2010.   2009 Projections:  80/24/90/.290

13. Carlos Delgado – Delgado could be the poster boy for someone who won’t exceed expectations in 2009.  I almost put Delgado above Atkins, cause I think he might outproduce Atkins, but then I thought about if I were drafting and whether I would draft Delgado before Atkins.  I wouldn’t.  2009 Projections:  80/31/110/.260

14. Carlos Pena – Here’s the last guy in this tier of boring guys.  I don’t think guys in this tier will be on many 1st place teams in September.  2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265

15. Chris Davis – Now we’re in a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “Too interesting to be in the above tier, but too risky as well.”  Everyone and Voletta Wallace is going after Chris Davis in 2009 fantasy drafts.  I added my own hype when I posted, Chris Davis, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper.  Okay, sleeper my coolie hole.  Not after Bill James gave him MVP projections.  2009 Projections:   75/30/95/.275/3

16. Jorge Cantu – He’s showed that he can be absolutely worthless for entire seasons so I’d be careful about making Cantu your 1st baseman, but, as a corner man, you can do much worse.  He’s also going to be the magical 27-years-old in 2009.  (An age when hitters supposedly peak and porn stars hopefully retire.)  2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5

17. Aubrey Huff – Now we’re in a new one person tier.  Let’s call this tier, “Guys Named Aubrey Huff.”  In 2008, Huff outperformed about ten of the names listed above him here.  Whatevs.  I wouldn’t draft him on any team and couldn’t, in good conscience or while conscious, tell you he should go in the top ten.  2009 Projections:  75/22/75/.280

18. Mike Jacobs – This last tier, goes from here to Jackson.  I call this tier, “Late fliers.”  Jacobs’s average in 2008 of .247 was actually a little bit worse than it should’ve been.  He’s more of a .260 hitter.  I know, big whoop.  Well, it’s a small enough whoop to make him intriguing late in a draft.  Though the Royals situation is a bit murky with their seventeen 1B/DHs.  2009 Projections:  65/28/75/.260

19. Nick Swisher – Is Swisher going to be a doughy bagel, i.e., a top ten performer?  Nah, you just got carried away with yourself.  I see a small keep-expectations-in-check rebound coming after a dreadful 2008.  He’s ranked 19th, but he could exceed this ranking.  2009 Projections:  70/30/80/.255

20. Conor Jackson -  Conor Jackson almost equals Derrek Lee.  Cust kayin’.  2009 Projections:  85/17/85/.300/10

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Carlos Guillen – Sure, C. Guile is sneaky fast, which am0unts to, like, 10 steals.  At 1st base, I’d actually prefer Huff.  2009 Projections:  80/14/80/.300/10

James Loney – Since I’m such a Pollyanna, I’m going to leave you on a positive note.  Loney is a cheap-as-dog-balls Derrek Lee with some slight upside.  No, Loney didn’t pay me to say that.  Don’t expect too much from Loney and you might be pleasantly surprised.  2009 Projections:  75/17/85/.295/7

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top 20

January 13, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 27 Comments →

The other day we went over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and today we fill out the top 20.  Pretty neat, huh?  What, you can’t handle the word neat?  Whatevs.  You’re wearing Jordache Jeans and your Mom calls you, “Pumpkie.”  Deal with that!  Next, we’ll go over the top twenty catchers and so on around the diamond as we look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This 2nd round was a real battle for me to commit to, taking by far the longest time.  I had Utley as low as 17, Beltran was at every slot at one point.  I’m happy with what I settled on, but I will say that I could see a serious argument made for a reshuffling of these names.  By my estimation, there’s only two tiers in the 2nd round.  Utley to Fielder then the last three players.  In addition to these 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we have our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater. It’s all here, ya’ll!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball:

11. Mark Teixeira – I wouldn’t expect 40 home runs from Teixeira.  He doesn’t seem capable of that outside of Arlington.  Though he’s extremely trustworthy for a certain level of production and that’s what gets him in here at twelve.  2009 Projections:  110/35/125/.310

12. Tim Lincecum – After Santana, he’s about as good as a lock for a 3.00 ERA and 200 Ks as you’re going to find. With Sabathia’s move to the AL East, and the slight uncertainty of how he’ll adjust, Lincecum becomes the number two pitcher off the board.  With a 2nd round pitcher, I want someone who has a good chance at being a top ten player at the end of the year and Lincecum’s that pitcher.  For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t draft Lincecum because I don’t believe in taking pitchers this high.  2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210

13.  Carlos Beltran – He’s a lock for 110/27/115/.275/22 with upside for a bit more.  Again, this doesn’t feel like an exciting pick.  You look at Josh Hamilton and he’s EXCITING!  Caps and exclamation mark exciting.  That’s real exciting.  That’s screaming as you ran down the street with your pants around your ankles right after you lost your virginity exciting.  I agree with you.  A 2nd round pick of Josh Hamilton is the kind of pick that makes all the guys wanna be your friend and all the girls wanna date you.  Well, don’t forget the lesson of Ronald Miller.  A 2nd round pick of Hamilton could take you from “geek” status to “king” status to no status.  2009 Projections:  110/27/115/.275/22

14. Ian Kinsler -  I really thought Kinsler would be later in the 2nd round, but his position coupled with his ability to go 20/20 has him ranked here.  Though his average will come down from last year.  2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25

15. Jimmy Rollins - Braid up your hair real tight to your skullz and think about this…. In an off year, where Rollins battled injuries and one of the worst slumps of his career, he hit 11 home runs and stole 47 bases — stole 47 bases out of 50 bases.  Rollins should bounce back to 110+ Runs and 70+ RBIs.  Let’s be conservative and say he hits only 5 extra home runs in 2009 and steals only 40.  You STILL (caps for emphasis, not for the farsighted) want that from your shortstop.  2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40

16. Prince Fielder – I’ve seen the big man falling into the third round of some drafts.  Makes me feel like I need to clear something up.  We’re drafting for 2009, not for what he did in 2008.   Sure, Berkman had a great 2008, but he’s hardly just entering his prime.  Yes, Fielder is the world’s fattest 24-year-old vegetarian and we should be worried about his general health when he’s in his 30s and needs a crane to get him to 1st base, but right now….  Binge on some Boca Burgers!  2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285

17. Carlos Lee – And here’s the 2nd tier of the 2nd round.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this last tier, “Their projections are variations of 100/32/100/.290/7.”  A fluke injury derailed Carlos Lee from putting up the same stats he puts up every year.  El Caballo isn’t ready for the glue factory just yet.  2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7

18. Lance Berkman - Berkman fills up all the categories just like Carlos Lee.  They’re like Crockett and Tubbs.  If Crockett were a little more Tubby.  2009 Projections:  100/32/100/.300/7

19.  Evan Longoria – A full season of Longoria has me very excited.  The Rays love to run and Longoria can hit 30 home runs with ease.  If you think David Wright is a top ten pick, Longoria’s definitely in the top twenty.  Honestly, I feel like Longoria’s headed for the 1st round in 2010 (when we’re all driving around in flying cars).  2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7

20. Alfonso Soriano – Al-So is somehow being underrated all of a sudden.  Sure, he’s a Latin 33 but whatevs.  2009 Projections:  110/32/85/.275/15

After the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but two I want to specifically mention:

Matt Holliday – I already went over Holliday for 2009 fantasy. As I sorta said there, Holliday is not someone I would avoid completely.  He’ll still have value and I could see him going as soon as 21st.   He’s just not the 1st or 2nd rounder he was last year.   2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12

Josh Hamilton – I’ve already gone over Hamilton being overrated.  I’ve seen some fantasy baseball ‘perts rank Josh Hamilton as high as 8th overall.  Are they expecting him to go 40/40?  Cure the common cold?  Invent square pancakes?  We’re all rooting for Bubbles to stay on the straight and narrow, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to get nearly 100 RBIs by the All-Star Break again.  He’s Carlos Lee, but more injury-prone.  Call him Unhealth Lee.  2009 Projections:  95/30/110/.295/7

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top 10

January 12, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 36 Comments →

Can you believe it’s that time again?  No, not 8:23 AM.  It’s time for the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  We begin our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2009 fantasy baseball then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position.  All of these top 20 lists will live in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings section. Some deeper positions will require a top 40 list.  Listed along with this top ten for 2009 fantasy baseball list are my 2009 projections for each player.  You know what else you can do if you’re feeling especially industrious (or if you know what industrious means)?  Look at our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater.  This top 10 list has me mentioning, amongst other things, where I see tiers starting and stopping.  I like to look at tiers like this, if Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 5th, they’re both very close.  It comes down a bit to personal preference.  Now, obviously, I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at five.  This top 10 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or trade in spring training, so while it is the 2009 fantasy baseball gospel.  Take it with a tablet of salt.  Got it?  Good.  Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Hanley Ramirez – I’m done fighting the man.  I’ve given up.  I’m going to take my medicine and admit that last year when I ranked Hanley 5th overall that I ranked him a bit too low. Part of what makes me a fantastic fantasy baseball ‘pert is my willingness to admit mistakes.  Frankly, I’m still worried about Hanley’s shoulder and its propensity to give out on a swing and miss.  But, and it’s a J. Lo-sized but, there’s no one who has done what Hanley has done the last three years even with this shoulder issue.  Then throw in his position, and he’s the number one guy off the board.  2009 Projections:  125/37/80/.295/35

2. Jose Reyes – I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing Jose Reyes and I don’t care who you’re bringing.  I love Reyes.  There, I said.  60 steals and 15 home runs is exactly what you want from your shortstop.   2009 Projections:  125/15/70/.290/60

3. David Wright – Let’s be clear, I’m not a Mets fan.  I watch them, but I have Direct TV so I watch everyone (preferably not the Pirates).  David Wright came in first on this 2009 fantasy baseball player rater by a hair and I think there’s a case to be made for the first four guys on this top ten list to be number one.  My biggest concern with Wright is how he derives a lot of his value from his steals and I think he’s more of a ten steal guy than a twenty steal guy.  2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14

4. Albert Pujols – If you have the fourth pick overall and get “stuck” with POO-holes then you gotta love that.  Pujols is about as steady as they come for production, apparently, with or without a working elbow tendon.  As said in the David Wright blurb, the top four could all be number one in someone’s draft rankings, i.e., an argument could be made for any of them to be one overall.  This is the end of the first tier of the first round.  2009 projections:  105/35/110/.335/5

5. Miguel Cabrera – So begins the 2nd tier of the first round.  I call this tier, “I really hope I don’t have to pick 5th overall.  This shizz gets dicey.” If you have the 6th pick, you’re getting a slightly lower echelon player.  In the big picture, these guys are still top notch players and you shouldn’t complain… too much, at least.  I say this is the second tier, because I don’t think a serious argument can be made that Miguel Cabrera should be number one overall.  2009 Projections:  100/39/125/.305

6. Grady Sizemore – Sizemore is as good a lock for 30/30 as anyone.  His strikeouts are declining and BB/K is increasing.  In 2009, his average should move in the right direction.  The 5th Chapter of Akron’s Middle-Aged Bitties for Grady’s Babies approve this ranking.  2009 Projections:  110/37/85/.285/30

7. Ryan Braun – Something’s not kosher here.  Ryan Braun exceeded my expectations, but somehow fell off everyone else’s radar.  His 2008 92/37/106/.285/14 must’ve disappointed everyone who thought he was going to hit .320 every year.  I warned everyone before last season started — repeatedly — Braun is not a .320 hitter.  Though a guy that could hit 40 home runs and steal 15 bases is not someone you should underrate.  2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15

8. Ryan Howard – Say what you will about his .250 average last year, but 45 home runs and a 140 RBIs go a real far way.  Oh, and there’s the two year average of one steal/year.  You can count on one finger how many players Bill James said will hit 50 home runs in 2009.  The same finger you can flip to your detractors at your draft when you choose Howard ninth overall in 2009.  2009 Projections:  100/45/140/.265

9. Johan Santana – Unless Johan really falls and, by that, I mean early 3rd round, I won’t get him.  I’ve placed him 10th because I can see him easily earning this value, but I’m not drafting him here.  He’s the first player on this top ten list that I wouldn’t draft at the place where I ranked him.  If that makes any sense… *SPOILER ALERT* If you don’t want to know how the top 20 for 2009 starts, stop reading here.  If Utley is ready to start the 2009 season on Opening Day, I’d switch him from 11th overall to 10th and put Johan there.  (BTW, If I had a pimped out car with a spoiler kit, I’d write SPOILER ALERT on the side in metallic paint.  Cause that’s how I roll!)  2009 Projections:   18-6/2.95/1.12/210

10.  Chase Utley – You know you don’t want this pick in any 2009 fantasy drafts.  You’d prefer to grab Teixeira or Hamilton.  You know what else?  You smell like vagina.  Last year, you didn’t want Pujols either.   You talked about the risk involved and wanted the safe bet.  You wanted Vlad or David Ortiz.  How’d that turn out?  Utley’s due back by 2009 Opening Day.  I don’t doubt for one second Utley will work his hardest to be there.  Maybe he has a small setback and is out until May.  In 2007, Utley missed a month and still put up quality stats.  I know it doesn’t feel like the safest pick, but you gotta trust Utley.  He got you.  2009 Projections:  105/29/105/.295/10