Fantasy Baseball Advice

Already went over the top 20 outfielders for 2008 (and the top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008), but outfielders (and starters) will need to go 40 deep to get the full picture. The lack of offense continues into the top forty outfielders (and will be seen in the reverse for top forty pitchers as it works in their favor). BTW, there was some slight confusion as to the rankings, I’m basing them on ESPN’s Player Rater. That’s why I can say I’d prefer Carlos Lee to Vlad, even though Lee is ranked by ESPN after him. I use the ESPN Player Rater so I have a neutral base, because I don’t think it’s fair for me to say I ranked B.J. Upton 10th in the preseason and now I conveniently rank him 10th again. No, I shouldn’t rank him again. Upton was ranked 10th in the preseason by me and ranked 21st by ESPN at the end of the year. Now whether you trust or agree with ESPN is a whole different matter. To further the discussion, Rudy will shortly be bringing his Point Shares to a computer screen near you for our final say on 2008 performances. Anyway, here’s the top 21 - 40 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. B.J. Upton - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

22. Randy Winn - I’m pretty sure Winn was on waivers in some of my leagues and I ignored him. To my detriment? Perhaps, but a 10/25 season is nice from your 2nd basemen, not your 2nd outfielder. (This is what I mean by not agreeing with ESPN rankings.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  84/10/64/.306/25

23. Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad’s numbers are a pale imitation of his former glory and getting paler. Giving the nickname, “Vlad the Impaler,” a whole new meaning. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  105/32/125/.315/3, Final Numbers:  85/27/91/.303/5

24. Alfonso Soriano - When you consider he only played in 109 games, these are great numbers and right in line with his predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (right here, in fact). A player that gets injured isn’t the worst thing for your fantasy team. If you were to have Soriano for all of his healthy games then, say, Elijah Dukes for all of Soriano’s injured games, you had great numbers at that position. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  115/35/75/.280/20, Final Numbers:  76/29/75/.280/19

25. Magglio Ordonez - …Whereas someone like Mags who gives you 561 at-bats and only 21 homers isn’t ideal. Maybe Vlad or Al-So can teach Mags how to give these stats in 150 less at-bats and then get injured. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/110/.300, Final Numbers:  72/21/103/.317

26. Carlos Lee - Another guy that would rank much higher if I were ranking them. Chuck Lee fought the power a bit less this year because of a fractured pinkie, but if you grabbed someone like, say, Ethier for the final month-plus while Lee was out, you had a very productive outfielder. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/120/.295/7, Final Numbers:  61/28/100/.314/4

27. Xavier Nady - Let’s look at what I said on April 7th, “…he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? …history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere.” And that’s me quoting me! You gotta also like how I told you not to drop Carlos Lee for him, cause I knew Lee would come in just above him in the year end rankings.  Natch! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  76/25/97/.305/2

28. Raul Ibanez - The following is a story of you and Raul Ibanez — You grabbed Ibanez early on when he hit five home runs in April, then dropped him in May when he hit 2 HRs, then briefly considered grabbing him in July when he hit 6 HRs then kicked yourself for not picking him up in August when he hit 7 HRs, then finally grabbed in September when he hit .233 with 1 HR. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  85/23/110/.293/2

29. Willy Taveras - Sixty-eight steals and sixty-four runs. One more time for those who think a hyphen is a minus sign. Taveras had 68 steals and only 64 runs. In-cred-ible or incredible. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 64/1/26/.251/68

30. Torii Hunter - While talking about Abreu, I mentioned the other day how an outfielder going 20/20 is the best way to go unnoticed by fantasy teams. Well, here’s another guy that is in MLB’s Witness Protection Program with season after season of 20/20. Too bad Ambiorix Burgos is a pitcher; he could use this sort of anonymity right about now. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/100/.275/20, Final Numbers:  85/21/78/.278/19

31. Corey Hart - Corey Hart took a dump on teams in September with zero home runs and a .173 average. Either the pennant race got the best of him or all his bad ball swinging. Probably a bit of both. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.280/25, Final Numbers:  76/20/91/.268/23

32. Milton Bradley - He reached 400 at-bats for the first time since 2004 and, even more impressively, he had zero meltdowns (unless you count the time the Royal announcer had to lock himself in the booth to avoid Bradley attacking him, but since Bradley never got to him, we’ll give Bradley a pass). His healthy season showed that A) he is no longer a threat for 15 steals and B) he still misses close to 40 games even when healthy. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 78/22/77/.321/5

33. Curtis Granderson - I didn’t like him at all coming into this season. I felt like expectations were unreal. He turned out to prove me right and wrong. Right, because his final numbers were a letdown. Wrong, because he did take a step forward in walks and average against lefties. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  115/27/85/.280/25, Final Numbers:  112/22/66/.280/12

34. Andre Ethier - In the beginning of the year, The Pierre Situation™ infected the Dodgers’ outfield water supply to make it undrinkable. Luckily, Torre filtered Jones and Pierre so Ethier could run hot until his wife’s water broke in late September. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 90/20/77/.305/6

35. Mark DeRosa - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

36. Jayson Werth - Did the Dogers give up too early on Werth or did they realize they had exactly the same player in Ethier? Both probably. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 73/24/67/.273/20

37. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

38. Conor Jackson - Already went over Jackson in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

39. David DeJesus - I know your first inclination is to see DeJesus and think he was underrated, but “Blink,” you’re wrong. Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell. You were better off running hot waiver wire pickups out there every week than this schomhawk. A 12/11 in over 500 at-bats is not productive. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  70/12/73/.307/11

40. Hunter Pence - If he can get his steals up a bit, he might be able to snitch on the mafia and sneak his way into the MLB Witness Protection 20/20 Program. Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.290/17, Final Numbers:  78/25/83/.269/11

I’m just going to jump right in with this moron, or morron, as he’d spell it. First, a Karabell title, “Euphoric about Eugenio; closers, Bush, mail.” Eugenio who? Velez, the guy who should have one hand tied to the barrel of a bat so all he can do is bunt. He’s cheap speed. But so is chasing down a rock of crack with Red Bull. You wanna see helicopters? I’ll show you helicopters! Razzball pimped Velez too, back in March. Karabell’s pimping him in July. Since Karabell advised you pick him up three weeks ago, Velez has started three games. Sweet! How about giving Eric Chavez a pickup for some pop? Does anyone know why Luis Polonia’s not in Yahoo? He played baseball as hard as he pedophile’d!

Then Karabell pokes his finger around in Bush to see if it moves. There’s some life there, but how many people can you put in this schmohawk while Jeremy Guthrie is owned in 32.9% of ESPN leagues? Guthrie has 17 Quality Starts. Haren is tops in all of baseball with 19. Since he pimped out his Bush, ten runs in 19 innings. Sweet! The crux of his argument is that Bush is all right by him, but he should be played home and away by Yost. Yeah, double your trouble — literally.  Moving on before I fall into an idiotic coma.

His next post title was, “Ortiz, Chipper, Liriano, weekend watch.” David Ortiz, his choice for AL MVP (seriously, you can’t make up shizz this stupid), was predicted to absolutely go off as soon as he returned from the DL. 1 HR, 6 RBIs since his return three weeks ago. Okay, that works. Cool. Now if I can figure out how to get Matt Holliday into every other hitting spot on my team, I’ll be all set. Thanks. Then he went on to say Jeff Baker was an absolute add. “(Jeff Baker) is hardly a fluke, and the fact he’s hitting .522 since the break and .400 in the No. 2 spot in the order aren’t things suddenly about to end.” Jeff Baker is in a 3-for-36 slump and has been benched in three of the last six games. Awesome! Maybe I can slot him into my Utility slot when Ortiz isn’t playing.

I’ll leave you with this last piece of Eric Karabell anti-advice, “I would never sit Ryan Sweeney of the A’s, assuming he could stay healthy. He takes walks, hits doubles and steals bases. I’d like to see him get 500 at-bats.” Rather than have you look up his stats, I’ll just give them to you. In 272 at-bats, he is 36/3/36/.294/8. Over 500 at-bats, that makes Randy Winn seem exciting. How do I get into a league with Karabell? I can see it now, “What do you think about Ryan Sweeney for Arod?” “Hater, that sounds like a go picture!”  What an effin’ jackfruit. Until next time… Karabell, go get your shinebox!

Some of you who find this post through Google may be disappointed to know the title does not refer to gay porn or grabbing bats in the non-gay way, but in the vampire way. Sorry, you shouldn’t be trying to grab bats anyway — in the the vampire way. As for the other way, I’ll relay a quick story. I was in the bathroom at the Hard Rock Casino in Vegas and guess who’s peeing next to me, Randy Johnson. I was so pumped (bad choice of words, but this whole story is ill-advised) I immediately blurted out, “Hey, it’s The Big Unit!” And that’s that story. Okay, so circumstances out of my control made it impossible for me to do a Buy/Sell last week. Well, excuuuuuse me. So this week we’re doing a Buy/Sell for fantasy baseball hitters today, then fantasy baseball pitchers tomorrow. This is when you get excited. I can’t hear you. Okay, better. In just about every league, it’s close to your trading deadline, if not past it. So I’m digging in my heels to try and uncover some gems. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball hitters to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Dioner Navarro - Hit two home runs this week. He hit 6 of 8 HRs last year in August and September. If you’ve held him this long, now is not the time to drop him.

Emilio Bonifacio - Last name pronounced: cheep stëlz.

Brandon Moss - A rolling stone gathers no moss… Ordinarily. But what if that rolling stone played fantasy baseball? Don’t think about that too long, it’ll cross your streams. Like Randy and I.

Wladimir Balentien/ Jeff Clement - Neither is worth the virtual paper I’m writing this on, but Vidro’s dumping opens up a DH slot. If you’re in a deep league, react accordingly.

Fernando Tatis - Not sure how many remember this, but Tatis was bonafide back in ‘99, slugging 34 HRs. He dropped a bit in ‘00 but it was due to injuries, then this kid by the name of Pujols stepped in and suddenly I sound like Vin Scully. Tatis has value if he’s healthy and hitting. Right now, both are true.

Bobby Crosby - I hate him more than you. I do. Try me. Fine, if you have to have your way, you hate him more.  He’s still been hot recently. Just know, caveat craptor.

Chipper Jones - I know, he should be a sell, but hear me out. This DL trip threw a monkey wrench into his owners’ plans and they learned to live without him. It also served as a reminder that Chipper can’t be trusted. So his owners have filled in for him and they’re mighty annoyed with him, so they’re zigging. Now what do you do? Zog? That’s not even a word! You zag! Holy heffin’ hey, pay attention!

Victor Martinez - Also, he could easily be on the Sell list, but I’m digging for diamonds in the rough here. He could go .350 with 5 HRs in the final 6 weeks. It’s not quite butter, but it’s not I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter either.

Casey Blake - Casey’s a girl’s name or an Affleck name, but don’t let that stop you. Blake used to be a favorite of mine in ten team mixed leagues. Ask Rudy. If I didn’t have Blalock or Kotchman, I had Blake.I don’t currently have him in any league, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t.

Alex Gordon - What are you listening to right now? “Stop Already With Alex Gordon” by The You? Ah, good song. But Gordon’s been hot recently and he hit well late last year. What, you can’t hear me because you’re still listening to “Stop Already With Alex Gordon” by The You? All right, I get it.

SELL

David Ortiz - As the Spanish might say, I got Papi issues. On July 18th, I told you to trade away David Ortiz. One thing has changed since then, his wrist now sounds like a Wu-Tang song.

Josh Willingham - Thought he was rounding the corner into Productive Outfieldville. Maybe he lost his Mapquest printout.

Jeff Keppinger - Not sure what happened to Keppinger after the injury, but he’s not even playing up to his nickname, Blanco Polanco.

Albert Pujols - Chillax, I’m not saying to sell him for three stale, powdered donuts and a Hogan’s Family Season 1 DVD. But let’s be clear, he’s hitting about 35 HRs this year. He’s at 23. He’s not going to get much above 100 RBIs or runs. He’s near 70 for both. The last time he hit more than 10 HRs in a month after the All-Star Break was in 2004, with 12 in August. And he’s an injury risk. Is he the best pure batsman in the major leagues? Perhaps, but he’s not currently near the best fantasy baseball player. I sold Pujols for Sizemore in one league. Since the trade, Sizemore 24/10/24/.289/10 — Pujols 27/7/31/.360/4.  And this is after Pujols hit two HRs in the last two games. Cust kayin’.

Randy Winn - Currently hot. So why sell? Next to the definition of schmohawk is Winn rubbing lotion on his ashy knees. He’s got one HR since June. He’s owned in 85% of ESPN leagues. Though I’m assuming 98% of their leagues are abandoned within the first week of the season. So there’s that.

Milton Bradley - You guys had a good run together. Much more valuable than either of you deserved. So what now? Dump and run? He’s only had more than 377 at-bats once in his career. He’s at 306. You got so much value from him, why are you moaning and shizz? What, you want more? Pick up someone else. You want Bradley? Eh, you’re impossible.

We’re at the 1/4 mark for the first season of Razzball - a fantasy baseball game where you try to manage the worst team possible - and we’re on our way to probably the worst collective stat totals ever seen in a Yahoo! public league. With team batting averages as low as .238 and ERAs and ERAs as high as 5.36, it’s no wonder that Alan Trammell keeps bugging us for a chance to manage one of these teams (See 2003 Tigers team totals).

The top 4 are closely bunched but the leader at this point is….me. That’s right. My team sucks more than the rest. Look at me, ma. I’m king of the third world!

No doubt my 48 point offense (out of 60) has prospered at the expense of the real-life lineups that employ my top two picks (Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn). The two of them have combined for 277 ABs and managed 40 Runs, 3 HR (all Bourn), 12 RBI, 60 Ks, and a .206 AVG. Multiply that by two and you’ve got one AWFUL season. Message to Cecil Cooper and Clint Hurdle: Keep those guys at the top of your lineups. Don’t ruin a good thing…for me!

In 2nd place is our amateur entry from Josh the Non-Blogger - Team DFA (Designated For Assignment? Destined For Awfulness?). He’s overcome surprising starts by Scott Olsen, Edwin Jackson, and Ryan Ludwick with draftees like Franklin Morales (6.39 ERA over 25 IP yet only 2 HR?), Jose Castillo, and Brendan Harris (.248/33 Ks/2 HR/9 RBI) and smart pickups like the one-time apple of my eye Eugenio Velez and Tom “I’m Punto’s Backup” Tolbert.

In 3rd place is April league leader Cards In The Attic. Coincidence that his drop from 88 to 78 points started around the time that Pittsburgh dropped the anchor of his staff (and an anchor on their staff) Matt Morris? I blog to differ.

The 4th team of the top quartet is Roto Professor - who is so dedicated that he scouts Razztastic performances in the minor leagues. He’s smartly banking on the Giant offense (Ortmeier, Durham, Winn) but needs to find more AB machines like Kurt Suzuki and Jason Bartlett to avoid the minimum AB penalties (He’s currently about 320 AB off the pace of 5200 AB - the pro-rated stats definitely have an impact…e.g., goes from 20 to 25 HRs after applying 80 ABs of pro-rated 35 HRs.)

Other notes:

5th place Mop Up Duty’s team is looking good (bad?) relying on high AB/low performance middle infielders like Julio Lugo, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein. Also liked their recent preview on interleague play.

Biggest gainer in the last 20 days or so has to be the Fantasy Baseball Generals moving from 10th to 6th. Their ridiculous 3.17 ERA / 1.17 WHIP finally regressed (progressed?) to the mean with a move to 3.78 / 1.27. Keep up the bad pitching.

Blogmate Grey has fallen to 8th place. Ha ha…you don’t suck!

The team fielded by the blog formally known as GOTOS - now FantasyPhenoms - is suffering from a roster full of benchwarmers. Stop spending so much time on your fancy new blog and pick up some every day players. Their team’s 14 HR boosts to 31 HR because of the minimum-AB penalties. (BTW, here’s an interesting rank of pitchers they did - a little stat wonky but good.)

And in last place, our occasional contributor Lou and his Defunct Baseball Lab. Defunct indeed. I think you have to spend less time writing about great fantasy baseball players and start reading my Razzball Spotlights!