Fantasy Baseball Advice

Brett Cecil appeared in the April 23rd version of the Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell.  I liked his strikeout stuff and thought he was up to the task.  He secretly confided in me it was a lot of pressure on him.  He never had a mustachioed man ask anything of him, at least not one that wasn’t wearing a raincoat and no pants.  His WHIP sits at 0.77 through 20 2/3 innings.  Thank you, can I bring you your slippers?  He has 21 Ks.  Yup, more than a strikeout per inning.  Last night, he had a perfect game in the 7th inning and ended up going 8 innings, 1 ER and 10 Ks.  He’s getting a bit lucky, but he’s worth owning in all twelve team leagues, while ten teamers should hover their grabby hands just over his name.  Honey, could you bring me a Dr. Pepper? My grabby hands are busy, woman!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rafael Furcal – The Dodgers will be oh-for-cal for 15 days.

Ryan Madson – Will have toe surgery after kicking a metal chair.  The metal chair is day-to-day.

Joe Blanton – 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  That looks like about what you’ll get from Blanton every time out.  Give or take 1 earned run, according to 100 simulations run by a 100 monkeys dressed as William Shakespeare.

David Freese – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  No one’s been hotter in the last week.  Now has 3 homers in the last seven games and batting near .500.

Jaime Garcia – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  If you’re bored at your job, Dave Duncan can turn you into a major league pitcher and help you win a Cy Young.

Cesar Valdez – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the Suck Asstros.  Valdez is fine in NL-Only leagues because he should keep the ball down, but looks like he’ll be more valuable to the Diamondbacks than he will to your mixed league fantasy team.

Mike Pelfrey – Had an MRI for shoulder tightness, but he was cleared to start Friday.  The MRI showed “pitched poor on Saturday vs. a good team” but “hopeful he’ll be better against” a “poor Giants offense.”  Yes, MRI results read like a Zagat review.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 13 Ks.  If the Rockies schedule holds, Ubaldo should be the starter on July 13th.  Though he’ll probably only go for 2 innings.

Javier Vazquez – First bit of good news for Vazquez owners this year is the Yankees are skipping his turn in the rotation.  There’s some taxi drivers rubbing their hands together hoping Javy gets into their cab.

Jorge Posada – Left the game with tightness in his right calf.  His left calf sends its best.  Posada’ll miss a few days.

Randy Winn – 1-for-3 with a 3-run homer.  I was looking up his numbers yesterday making sure there was nothing to see here and there isn’t, but something did stand out to me.  His age.  How is he 35 years old?  C’mon, doode looks like he’s 62.  He was 35 when he starred opposite Billy Crystal in Running Scared.

Nick Swisher – 3-for-3, appeared in Friday’s Buy/Sell and is still hitting over .400 in the last seven days.  ROTIOAOWAYSETWOASPAYOWTWH!

Mariano Rivera – Rivera joins Posada as the sore half of the core four.  Rivera felt stiffness in side after Friday’s game.  The Yankees withheld telling the media until yesterday.  Don’t these people know The Star Ledger’s got papers to sell!  It makes me a tad suspicious that the Yankees didn’t say anything about Rivera until yesterday.  (BTW, Tad Suspicious is a character I adopt while playing Clue.)  I’d absolutely grab Joba if he’s out there.

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-5 as he hit his first homer of the season.  That puts him just off his pace from last year when he hit 8 homers.

Austin Jackson – 3-for-5 as he fell a homer short of the cycle.  He’s now hitting .377.  Okay, all I’m saying is his BABIP is .527, which means he could pop a bunt up to the catcher and it would fall for a hit.

Max Scherzer – 4 1/3 IP, 10 ER.  Look around, the people who are standing are Scherzer owners.  They can’t sit down.

Rich Harden – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 9 Ks and most importantly no walks.  Looked like vintage Harden, which is weird to say for a 28-year-old, but there ya go.

Frank Francisco – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Two steps forward, one near blown save back.

Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  It’s about time the Peavy of old put on his shizzkickers and kicked some– Oh, it was vs. the Royals.

Andruw Jones – Konerko has, like, 27 homers; Andruw Jones has 8 homers and 5 steals.  In a sad twist of fate, they’re both going to be toddlers by the end of the season.

I’m beginning to think with Billy Beane that the emperor’s wearing no clothes.  Moneyball is still a great book, Joe Morgan is still a moron and Chad Bradford is still an underhander.  Those things are true.  But the A’s were 4th in the Majors last year in steals — what happened to steals cost outs?  Not to mention, Beane’s team hasn’t been competitive in three seasons.  Was Moneyball just a symptom of the era?  Was it simply fortuitous that Beane’s coronation came during the era of the three run homer?  Was Moneyball a by-product of steroids?  Would Moneyball be written today?  Hard to imagine Michael Lewis sitting down with a GM of a sub-.500 club and polishing his pedestal, right?  And none of this has to do with fantasy baseball or Ben Sheets.  (I wrote the preceding the other day, then right before I posted this I saw Sky Andrecheck wrote an SI piece in the similar ballpark.  Literally.)

If Sheets can stay healthy, he’s liable to return more than his ADP.  That “if” is ginormous.  That “if” sits next to you on a plane and you can’t put down the armrest.  You show up at a party of 500 Tongans and that “if” is the second biggest thing in the room after the buffet table.  You hook up with that “if” at a bar and people will think you’re beer goggling.  Okay, I think I made my point.  The other issue with Sheets is his falling K-rate.  Back in 2005, if Sheets was healthy, he was a Cy Young-type performer.  Regularly posting 200+ Ks and next to no walks. (Sounds a bit like Nolasco now.)  But lately Sheets hasn’t come near these numbers when healthy.  In 2007, he started 24 games and had a K-rate of 6.75.  That would’ve put him on par with Jason Hammel last year.  He also gained a walk per nine on his walk rate.  In 2008, Sheets had a 7.17 K/9.  Better, but that would’ve had him on par with Zito.  The days of the 9+ K/9 and sub-3 ERA are over.  He’s only a number 3 fantasy starter if he can start 30 games.  It’s okay, but not worth the ulcer when considering his health.  Anyway, here’s some more deals and signings since the last time we checked in and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Octavio Dotel – Signed on to be the Pirates closer.  Bummer.  Was hoping to see Joel Hanrahanananan and Brendan Donnelly battle it out.  Would’ve been like a match between Steve Lombardi and Salvatore Bellomo.  I will own Dotel on multiple teams.  He’s a K machine (regularly 10+ K/9) and he has no competition even if he falters. With The Dread Pirate, Robot Jones and Dotel, I’m going to be watching a lot of Pirate games this year.  Pray for me.

Xavier Nady – Signed with the Cubs. What a long strange trip it’s been for Nady. Goes from Tommy John surgery to being a fourth outfielder that can’t catch a break to putting up a career year to having his second Tommy John surgery and returning to fourth outfielder duty.  Nady will need Soriano to hop onto the DL to have any real value.

Miguel Tejada – Signs with the Orioles.  In the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, I gave Tejada projections of 70/15/85/.295/4.  In Houston, he hit second and fifth, helping balance his Runs and RBIs.  Now he’ll probably bat primarily fifth.  So if you want to argue Tejada’s Runs will decrease slightly and his RBIs will go up a tick, go for it.  But remember you’re arguing about an average at best, 35 year old shortstop.

Jon Garland – Signs with the Padres, or as I like to call them, The Team With Five Number Five Starters.  Garland can be a solid HodgePadre during the season.  But it’s hard to draft a HodgePadre, especially one with no Ks.  First long road trip and you wanna drop him.  I would slot him in as my 5th starter in NL-Only leagues.

Rick Ankiel – Signs with the peasant Royals.  For s’s and g’s, I went to look at Baseball-Reference’s most comparable players to Ankiel. Came back with Pedro Feliz.  Sounds about right.  Both are good for 20 homers and a .250 average.  Feliz at least has position eligibility going for him in fantasy baseball.  Ankiel’s a good story (minus that HGH story), but he’s not worth much outside of AL-Only leagues.

Randy Winn – Signed with the Yanks.  This signing for fantasy baseball has all the makings of a headache for yours truly.  No one wants to own Winn, but now that he’s on the Yanks he’ll be at the top of waiver wires all year, so I’m going to field six months of “Hey, Grey, Winn’s available, should I pick him up?”  On the bright side for schadenfreude purposes, this is a bigger headache for Brett Gardner.  As Nelson would say, “Ha-HA!”

Jim Thome – Signs with the Twins.  It’s his 3rd AL Central team.  Dayton Moore must be pissed he spent all his milk money on Podsednik and Ankiel.  Twin fans have been waiting for another Harmon Killebrew for 30 years.  In Thome, they found one, albeit closer to Killebrew today vs. during his career.  Thome could hit 30 homers with a full season of DH ABs, but the Twins have Mauer, Kubel and Cuddyer that could also take some ABs away.  I’d conservatively project Thome for 60/22/75/.240.

In the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we already went over 2009′s top 40 outfielders.  But like Jacques Cousteau once may have said to his underachieving son, “That’s not deep enough.”  There’s more outfielders to draft than there’s members of the Wu-Tang Clan, so we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you think there’s no value to be found this deep in the position, ask someone who owned Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury or Milton Bradley last year.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Jayson Werth – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Juan Pierre.  I call this tier, “Guys I like, but they have caveats.”  As for Werth, will he still be… *pinkie to mouth* Worthwhile?  He should be.  In Citizen’s Bank, Werth should be good for at least 17 HRs and he can chuck in 17 steals, as well.  The one caveat is he might hit .260.  2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17

42. Coco Crisp – Well, hello, Mr. Cereal.  I already went over Coco Crisp for 2009 fantasy.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.280/25

43. Xavier Nady – 2008 was a career year.  Nady could go 25/90 in 2009.  He’s not hitting .300 again.  2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275

44. Conor Jackson – His 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

45. Fred Lewis – With the bunions behind him (no, “bunions behind him” is not a euphemism for hemorrhoids), he’s ready to be valuable in 2009.  2009 Projections:  95/12/50/.270/25

46. Andre Ethier – In the top 4o outfielders post, someone asked where was Ethier.  I said, “Ethier hit 7 home runs in August and .462 in September, two insane months that don’t look like they’re going to be easily repeated.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5

47. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 post.

48. Justin Upton – He’s very young still, but check this out.  To get you further jazzed, he led the majors with the longest average home run at 417 feet, according to “The Bill James Handbook.”  2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7 but there’s lots of upside from those numbers.

49. Nelson Cruz – Went over him in a fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10

50. Adam Jones – Could be a younger, slightly riskier Coco Crisp.  Speaking of Coco Crisp, someone has the munchies!  2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12

51. Shin-Soo Choo – Let’s call him a less stoned, more Korean Adam Jones.   2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11

52. Rick Ankiel – Not sure how the Cards outfield is going to shake out, but at some point, someone’s going to have to make room for Colby Rasmus.  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

53. Denard Span – I not-so-secretly hope Span fails miserably for Gomez’s sake.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you’re Span kin — I said, spanking — hehe), I think Span’s here to stay, even in the Twins overcrowded outfield.  His batting eye was impeccable last year.  2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20

54. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Taveras.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF.”  2009 Projections:  Steals

55. Willy Taveras – I have two words for you…. Actually, that was six words to get to the two words so eight words… Well, technically, now I’m up to twenty-one words.  Anyway, Dusty Baker, that was the original two words.  Baker’s going to bat Taveras lead-off and let him run like crazy.  He might just get 80 Steals and 60 Runs.  2009 Projections:  Lotsa steals.

56. Mike Cameron – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “The Forgetten Vets.” If Mike Cameron and Adam Dunn were invited to a pinata party, we can guarantee one of two outcomes:  no candy or a whole lotta candy.  2009 Projections:  70/22/75/.245/18

57. Nick Swisher – Swisher’s 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

58. Hideki Matsui – I almost put Eric Byrnes here, but he’s old and he relied on speed.  Matsui will prolly get 400 ABs this year and produce solid numbers for a deep league.  2009 Projections:  70/18/80/.285

59. Randy Winn – As is the case with this tier, these guys offer little upside.  Winn is the epitome of that.  2009 Projections:  80/12/60/.290/17

60. David DeJesus – You have Kelly Johnson and the dealer is showing David DeJesus.  That’s a push.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.290/12

61. Jason Kubel – I just couldn’t resist adding one more name.  Some people may look at Kubel and say yawnstipating, I look at him and I say not that far from Jermaine Dye’s numbers.  2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280

After the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Jeff Francoeur – There’s certain guys you can grab late to look for upside-slash-a bounce back year, Frenchy ain’t one of them.  I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  2009 Projections:  65/18/70/.260

Elijah Dukes -  The location is the car.  The scene is Dukes and Milledge carpooling to work.  Did you bring quarters for the toll? I thought you got some when you bought that BK Broiler.  Those are MY quarters! Screech to the side of the road.  2009 Projections:  75/20/70/.265/15 (<–not as optimistic as you might think)

The Cubs just got a hundred and twelve pounds lighter as Felix Pie heads to the Orioles for some dudes that you don’t need to concern yourself with right now.  Either the Cubs got fed up waiting around for Pie or they think he’s nothing more than Corey Patterson, another player the Cubs dumped on the Orioles.  Jim Bowden and the Nationals might not be the only team where teams can unload their failed 5-tool projects (aka “The Tool Shed”).  Hopefully, Delmon Young doesn’t end up in Washington or Baltimore in the next 2 years.  Anyway, let’s look at the 2009 fantasy baseball implications for the Felix Pie trade:

Felix Pie – Pee-ay should have the inside track on the left field job going into and coming out of spring training.  Suddenly, Pie is fantasy relevant.  What’s to like about him?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  Torii Hunter could take Pie in an arm wrestling match.  Pie’s on the Bowden Fluffer JV Team with guys like Coco Crisp and Adam Jones.   Pie’s upside is Randy Winn.

Joey Gathright – Except in very deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, Gathright’s not really someone to draft, but you should keep an eye on him.  First sign of a Milton Bradley having a pulled hammy/bout with his inner demons, I’d grab Gathright for some cheap steals.  SAGNOF, boyz (and one possible girl reader).

I’m just going to jump right in with this moron, or morron, as he’d spell it. First, a Karabell title, “Euphoric about Eugenio; closers, Bush, mail.” Eugenio who? Velez, the guy who should have one hand tied to the barrel of a bat so all he can do is bunt. He’s cheap speed. But so is chasing down a rock of crack with Red Bull. You wanna see helicopters? I’ll show you helicopters! Razzball pimped Velez too, back in March. Karabell’s pimping him in July. Since Karabell advised you pick him up three weeks ago, Velez has started three games. Sweet! How about giving Eric Chavez a pickup for some pop? Does anyone know why Luis Polonia’s not in Yahoo? He played baseball as hard as he pedophile’d!

Then Karabell pokes his finger around in Bush to see if it moves. There’s some life there, but how many people can you put in this schmohawk while Jeremy Guthrie is owned in 32.9% of ESPN leagues? Guthrie has 17 Quality Starts. Haren is tops in all of baseball with 19. Since he pimped out his Bush, ten runs in 19 innings. Sweet! The crux of his argument is that Bush is all right by him, but he should be played home and away by Yost. Yeah, double your trouble — literally.  Moving on before I fall into an idiotic coma.

His next post title was, “Ortiz, Chipper, Liriano, weekend watch.” David Ortiz, his choice for AL MVP (seriously, you can’t make up shizz this stupid), was predicted to absolutely go off as soon as he returned from the DL. 1 HR, 6 RBIs since his return three weeks ago. Okay, that works. Cool. Now if I can figure out how to get Matt Holliday into every other hitting spot on my team, I’ll be all set. Thanks. Then he went on to say Jeff Baker was an absolute add. “(Jeff Baker) is hardly a fluke, and the fact he’s hitting .522 since the break and .400 in the No. 2 spot in the order aren’t things suddenly about to end.” Jeff Baker is in a 3-for-36 slump and has been benched in three of the last six games. Awesome! Maybe I can slot him into my Utility slot when Ortiz isn’t playing.

I’ll leave you with this last piece of Eric Karabell anti-advice, “I would never sit Ryan Sweeney of the A’s, assuming he could stay healthy. He takes walks, hits doubles and steals bases. I’d like to see him get 500 at-bats.” Rather than have you look up his stats, I’ll just give them to you. In 272 at-bats, he is 36/3/36/.294/8. Over 500 at-bats, that makes Randy Winn seem exciting. How do I get into a league with Karabell? I can see it now, “What do you think about Ryan Sweeney for Arod?” “Hater, that sounds like a go picture!”  What an effin’ jackfruit. Until next time… Karabell, go get your shinebox!