Fantasy Baseball Advice

Carlos Zambrano in his own special way welcomed the Cubs new arrival, Jake Fox, with a shizzfit of epic proportions.  Zambrano was ejected for bumping an ump,  I especially enjoyed when the ump ejected him and he then ejected the ump.  I’m out of order? No, YOU’RE out of order!  Somewhere Michael Barrett flinched.  Jake Fox can do it all. And, like Tyra Banks would say, he can do it fiercely.  His Triple-A numbers are 40/17/50/.423 in 40 games with a .503 OBP.  Pretty sick… And that’s sick as in healthy, not sick as in Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin or Votto.  But will Fox get time to do any of it, you ask.  Let’s see, Soriano, Hoffpauir, Fuku, FU (Bradley), Derrek Lee and Reed Johnson in four spots.  Fox’s only shot for regular playing time is at 3B and there he’d be a butcher.  At 1B/OF, maybe he gets 3 starts a week unless D-Lee gets hurt.  Though you can call D-Lee “DL” at this point, because he’s been about as reliable as a parachute made of bloomers.  As with other rookies, if Fox gets the chance, he could prove successful, so you want to be the one that owns him.  If he fails, then you drop him and take a bat to the Gatorade cooler.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners and 5 walks with 6 Ks.  Unfortunately, this is what Parra do.  Until he can get his walks in order, he’s not worth the psoriasis-inducing head scratching.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-5.  Hey, look who decided to make an appearance.  He’ll hit .250 and get 20+ homers.  If that’s what you need, that’s what he does.

Matt Capps – Said to be returning soon.  Be nice to get one save for all the effort I put in to pick up Grabow in every league.  Throw Grey a bone here, would ya?

Mat Gamel – 0-for-3.  Sticking with the Mat theme, but dropping one T like a bad geisha.  Gamel’s 3rd base eligibility made him especially enticing to me as a cornerman.  But he’s now making me long for Mark Teahen.

Luke Scott – Returned from the DL and hit a HR.  He’ll steal time from Wigginton, which is ironic because they’re basically the same player.  It would be like Mark Reynolds losing time to Chris Davis.  Tomato-tomahto, Orioles.  Find a blahtoon that makes sense to me then we’ll talk.

Nolan Reimold – Game winning homer yesterday.  See, Gamel, that’s how you turn lemons into Country Time.

Brett Myers – Left the game with his hip to be flared.  Again, he really shouldn’t even be on your team.  To avoid future flare-ups, he promises to wear the proper gear when disagreeing with his wife.

Jay Bruce – 2 HRs.  Now has 14 homers and only 29 RBIs.  Sure would be nice if the Reds put some runners on for him.  Maybe Dizzy Votto and his maritime compatriots can get aboard.

B.J. Ryan – For those holding out hope he’s taking over for Downs any moment, he’s given up 4 runs in the last 2 innings.  The Blue Jays are paying him a lot of money so they feel compelled to play him.  You shouldn’t.

Rick Porcello – 6 IP, 2 ER.  His lack of Ks leaves me wanting more, but he’s obviously been decent.  And his last name sounds like a delicious pasta sauce!

Josh Anderson – 4-for-5 while batting lead-off and stealing his 10th base.  SAGNOF!

Oliver Perez – Jerry Manuel said, Perez will need to be in the minors for at least another start because of “knee problems.” Jerry Manuel needs a bar of soap for some “lying problems.”

Adam Dunn – Hit another HR.  Since I traded him for Jose Reyes, he’s hit about five dozen home runs.  Kill me now.  Thank you.

Derek Holland – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Was a terrible matchup, and he gets the Yankees again next time out.

Chien-Ming Wang – Well, lookie-lookie.  2 IP, 2 Ks and zero baserunners.   Now let’s see you do it when you don’t have a seven run lead.

Elvis Andrus – I feel like I haven’t mentioned this enough, but where’s the effin’ steals, doode?  6 steals so far is not enough.  Let’s go, Elvis, boogie.

Kevin Slowey – I don’t own him in any league, but I gladly would.  I like Slowey a lot.  But because I don’t own him, I had no idea of something… He’s got 7 Wins?!  When did this happen?  Some of my teams don’t have 7 Wins.  Why am I fielding questions about whether to start this guy or not (when I invariably say start him)?  He’s 7-1 with a near-4 ERA.   Yeah, I’d start him.

Jered Weaver – Here’s another guy I feel like I keep answering questions about.  He has a 2.36 ERA.  For criminy sakes, start him.

Adrian Gonzalez – Hit his 18th homer yesterday.  Could this be the year we see a 40 homer guy call Petco home? (<–Sounds like something Tim Kurkjian would say while his voice squeaked.)

Bronson Arroyo – Now leads the NL with seven wins.  After the game he played on his guitar his new tune, “I May Suck, But My Wins Say It Ain’t True.”  Actually, pretty catchy.

Randy Johnson – Goes for win number 300 next week against the Nationals.  After he wins that game, I imagine he’ll say something like, “I could’ve won 500 games if they were all this easy.”

Jesse Chavez – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Somebody got burned yesterday chasing Saves.  A’la Nelson Muntz, ha ha!

Joe Nelson – 2 IP, 4 ER.  See 1/8 of an inch above.

Ben Zobrist – 2-for-3, and a steal.  Even if you just own him while Reyes gets better, it’s something, no?

Ben Francisco – 3-for-5 with a homer.  He’s 8-for-9 with 5 homers against Andy Sonnanstine.  Maybe he can get glasses made that superimpose Sonnanstine’s jersey on every pitcher.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 11th homer yesterday.  In the offseason of 2010, you’ll be looking at first basemen and you’ll think you should draft Branyan because he had 30 homers in 2009.  No, you shouldn’t.  But you can own him this year.

Adam Kennedy – 0-for-8 in the last two days.  He was hot for about a week, then he remembered who he was.  So my question is, who told my Reyes fill-in that he’s just Adam Kennedy?  I had a good thing going, man!

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-5, Just doing a friendly check-in on our favorite April 7th pickup.

Dan Uggla – HR yesterday and 5 homers in the last 10 games.  Not hitting for much average, but you didn’t expect him to do that anyway.

David Ortiz – Hit sixth again.  You know what’s been under reported in all of this?  Who’s now hitting third… J.D. Drew.  Zoinks!

Khalil Greene – It’s been a bad year for the Silent H’s as Khalil heads to the DL with anxiety disorder.  If there’s a bright side to this sad, sad story, maybe the anxiety will cause his ugly-ass hair to fall out.

Last week in a barrage of me making sense, I looked at fantasy starters whose ERAs will get worst. Well, do onto others or turnabout is fair play or some other cliché leads me to this post — the inverse of last week’s or fantasy baseball starters who will get better.  If you weren’t around last week, I mentioned what FIP is; don’t really feel like going into it again and regular readers will tire anyway, so go back and read last week’s.  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!) (Note, Part Deux:  Because the list didn’t reveal enough buy lows amongst the biggest differences between ERA and FIP, I skipped down the list after Randy Johnson for the last two.)

Ricky Nolasco – Difference between ERA and FIP is 3.45.  Nolasco was a preseason “sleeper” from some fantasy ‘perts.  (I put the unironic, toolbaggy quotes around sleeper because Nolasco was talked about so much by some that he really wasn’t much of a sleeper anymore.)  Nolasco also showed up on Rudy’s risky pitcher post.  At this point, he’s a bargain because he can probably be bought for a tall boy of Schlitz.

Gavin Floyd – 2.71.  That sounds purdy!  Yeah, until you realize his ERA is at 7.71 so a correction of less than three isn’t all that great.

Andy Sonnanstine – 2.63.  Falls into the same category as Floyd.  Sure, he should be better, but not really anything worth getting caca-cuckoo over.

Carl Pavano – 2.26.  Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.  Guess I’m gonna have to turn this sucker to 14.

Justin Verlander – 1.93.  His ERA is at 4.29 and his FIP is at 2.36.  He has the fifth lowest FIP behind Greinke, Lincecum, Johan and Wandy.  Zoinks! (That’s a good zoinks, FYI.)

Tim Lincecum – 1.91.  Last week, we saw Johan was due for a slight correction, now we see on the other side Lincecum’s going to meet him somewhere in the middle.

Jon Lester – 1.76.  After last week’s buy/sell, I’ve spoken enough about Lester for at least two months.

Gil Meche – 1.72.  This one was surprising to me, so I went to look closer at his numbers and it does seem like he should be much better.  If you take nothing away from this post, I’d grab Meche off waivers.  He should be much better.

Josh Beckett – 1.71. This doesn’t surprise me.  Beckett’s numbers are terrible.  He’s not a terrible pitcher.

Scott Olsen – 1.61.  Blech.

Randy Johnson – 1.35.  Sorry, Mr. Mullet Man, but Randy Johnson has a better chance of winning an Edward James Olmos look-a-like contest than having a huge turnaround with a FIP of 5.51.

Javier Vazquez – 0.83.  Not a huge difference between his ERA and FIP, but, when you realize his ERA is at 3.71 and his FIP is below 3, it’s enough to get you very excited about Vazquez moving forward.  If his owner is fed up with his One Bad Inning Syndrome™, I’d try and buy him.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.78.  His FIP is 3.52, his K/9 is 8.02 and his BABIP is .332.  Coors is scary like Roseanne Barr sans makeup, but I’d take a chance on Ubaldo.

I was alerted yesterday in our fantasy baseball forums that Ozzie Guillen will be sitting Alexei Ramirez for Jayson Nix.  And it may not be for just one game.  This makes perfect sense.  A guy who has never played a game at shortstop in the major leagues.  A guy who got the Rockies starting job at 2nd last year and hit .125 and 2 extra-base hits in 56 ABs.  A guy who couldn’t hold off Omar Quintanilla for the utility man role in Colorado.  A guy whose last name says it all.   So potatoes to chips, what does this mean for us?  It means we’re screwed in the screwhole!  What do you think it means?  No, actually, I think this is just a wakeup call.  Member how Victorino was benched for Werth last May?  Yeah, me too.  Alexei will get back his starting job and should be fine.  Also, shortstop is so weak on talent that it pays to wait this out for a bit.  (BTW, “potatoes to chips” is my new favorite phrase that means nothing.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Derrek Lee – His neck spasms are acting up again.  This could be an ongoing issue all year.  Just when you think he’s out of the dark, someone shuts off the lights.

Lance Berkman – HR yesterday.  Left April batting .162, now is batting .194.

Oliver Perez – Disgraceful List.  He’s out with a strain to his ability to pitch effectively.  No timetable for his return.

Albert Pujols – 11th homer yesterday as he went 4-for-4.  The rest of the team had 3 hits.  Imagine what Pujols would do if they weren’t pitching around him.

Mitchell Boggs – Gave up 2 earned runs, but left the game after four and a third because of the inability to stop walking batters.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Kelly Johnson – DNP.  He’s in Cox’s doghouse pretty good this time.  Maybe dressing up as Gene Larkin for last Halloween wasn’t the best idea.

Jorge Cantu – HR yesterday, now has 30 RBIs.  Here’s what Rudy and I said after the first game of the season, “Hitting behind Ramirez for the rest of the season can only help.  It’s too early to predict a repeat of his 92/29/95 2008 season, but he’ll be a bigger bargain than most drafted cornermen.”  And that’s me quoting us!

Matt Capps – Says he could come back by Saturday.  Hold Grabow for now because I have my doubts.

Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 2 ER, 12 Ks.  With four of their top five hitters being Giles, Eckstein, Hairston and Gerut, they couldn’t beat the Washington Generals.

Kevin Slowey – 3 IP, 3 ER.  Unfortunately, the rain came and didn’t allow Slowey to fix a bad first inning.

Matt Tolbert – With Alexi Casilla sent down, Tolbert played 2nd base.   He should fit perfectly into the Twins plans for a weak offense.

Justin Upton – 2 HRs yesterday.  Okay, this might sound crazy, but has anyone seen him and BJ hit a homer in the same game?  Maybe him and BJ share a shoulder.

Cameron Maybin/Emilio Bonifacio – Their averages are moving closer and closer to each other and that really isn’t an endorsement for either.  On the bright side, Maybin has been seeing more time in the number two spot.

Felipe Lopez – Back from a sore ankle and stole two bases.  Sounds like someone was faking.

Manny Parra – 119 pitches through 6 innings, some walks and some Ks.  And this was a good matchup for him.  Pretty much exactly the kind of game Parra will throw.

Elvis Andrus – HR yesterday.  Of course, I just traded him away.

Aramis Ramirez – HR yesterday.  Guess he’s put his “cramps” behind him.

Randy Johnson – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, Zero Ks.  The humidor zapped the mullet’s strength!  Mullet… Must… Get… Fresh… Air…

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Was a perfect matchup for the man with the greatest first name in the majors.  If you were to read between the words there, I’m basically saying I still don’t trust him for every start.

Matt Murton – HR yesterday for the Rockies.  He actually makes good sense in the Rox lineup when they’re facing lefties.  Could be a solid pickup in NL-Only daily leagues where you can work a platoon.

Aaron Hill – 7th homer yesterday.  Who was the pickup of the year so far?  If you have to ask, you don’t own Aaron Hill.

Joe Beimel – Back in action! In the 9th inning!  Of a blowout?

Clayton Kershaw – See what I said about Parra and put it on a better team in a pitcher’s park.

Russell Martin – 3-for-5, 7 for his last 14.  Might be coming out of his early season sassafras. (<–Fun word used incorrectly!)

Bronson Arroyo – 1 IP, 9 ER.  Afterward, he played a song on his guitar.  It went like this, “I suck, suckers… Suck, suck, suck, suckers…”  Pretty catchy actually.

Ryan Braun – Grand slam and 6 RBIs.  If I may venture a guess, Braun will hit well when he’s playing then take a few games a month to recoup (cortisone shot).  Remember, 75% of Braun is Brau.  As in Lowenbrau.  Which is delicious.

Chan Ho Park – Dueled Johan Santana through 6 innings, giving up only 1 hit.  In other news, pigs can fly.

Joe Crede – Sat out because of an upset tummy.  If I ran a major league team, any time a player wanted to sit out for a minor ailment, I’d have them report their condition to Cal Ripken.  Just call him up and tell him you’re sitting out because you had Thai food for lunch.  Might think twice about ordering the Larb.

In yesterday’s game, Matt Kemp had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. On the season, he’s batting .383 with 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 12 Runs and 4 steals.  The 7th spot in the order is killing his value like Daniel Craig killed the Bond series.  Kemp’s a solid choice for NL MVP and I could see him moving to the 1st round next year for fantasy baseball drafts.  He said in the preseason that he wanted to go 40/40.  Can he actually do it?  Like Chris Young, it’s a tall order.  You don’t fall into 40/40 and, in Chavez Ravine, it’s not going to be easy for the 40 homers.  But the fact he wants to steal 40 bases is telling.  Steals are partially about motivation.  Sometimes guys just don’t want to steal (see Krispie Young in ’08).  Other times, players pile steals on to show they can (Canseco’s 40/40 year).  I doubt Kemp reaches 40 homers, but 30/30 with a .300 average isn’t crackers.  We shall call him Sizemoremore.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Glen Perkins – 8 IP, 1 ER.  You’re talking about a pitching who had a 4.41 ERA last year, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 5.14.  That’s pretty bad.  Okay, I’m being generous.  That’s awful.  Yes, he was lucky to only have an ERA of 4.41.  His MOLLY (Mitigating Of Lousy Loathsome Yuck) was 7.  That means he got pretty lucky.  So far this year his MOLLY is 9.9.  His BABIP has been insanely lucky so far, his fly balls are all over the place yet falling into fielders’ gloves.  He’s due for a regression.  If you own him, you’re bound to get Mollywopped.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 0 ER.  To answer 95% of the questions off the bat, he’s better than Perkins.  We thought at first that he might be an old-school Joker (BLAM!) but he has a fairly sustainable BABIP, his K/9 could get better and his average against is in line with norms.  His walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86.  You feeling stressed with Baker, Parra and Dice-K?  Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!)

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s matchups material in 12 team and smaller leagues.  He’s very young, so Mike Seaver-sized growing pains should be expected.  6 innings, three earned, four Ks should be his typical line.

Adam Jones – Left with a sore hamstring and bloodshot eyes.

Manny Corpas – Kazaam!  Don’t you just love Clint Hurdle anointing him closer then bringing him into this game?

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 1 ER, but gave up 5 walks.  I hate to rain on your fantasy parade, but Volquez is still not pitching well.  You can’t walk 5 guys in 6 innings and win… Unless, of course, you’re playing the Astros.

Cody Ross – 3rd HR.  Could he be this year’s Nady?  Well, if he gets real lucky on average.  He could hit .260 and 25 HRs aka 90% of the outfielders on waivers in 12 team and smaller leagues.

Randy Johnson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 1 Hit.  Didn’t hurt that no one on the Diamondbacks is currently hitting, but Randy’s still very capable of these games.  Unfortunately, he’s now capable of the 7 run disaster he threw last time out.

Matt Garza – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  It’s becoming a broken record, but he was also a risky pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks. Since his breaking pitches went up, he also showed up on the risky pitchers post.  But so far JV has been, like ohmigod, straight varsity.

Raul Ibanez – HR and batting .386.  I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming into this year… I mean, I liked him, but he is what he is.  Anyway, one league where my team is doing abysmally, he’s been that team’s one bright spot.  If he can now send a memo to Prince, Reynolds, Bruce and Alexei, that would be swell.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta answers all Razzball readers who were looking to drop him with a HR yesterday.  Now if he can get 28 more hits this year, he’ll have those 30 HRs you covet.

B.J. Upton – Left with quad tightness.  Looks like he now has an excuse for his lollygagging.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  If he gives you that line every time out, you have to be happy.  Not happy happy, but “Hey, it’s Kyle Davies, I’ll take it” happy.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Ted Nugent.  Is the answer to, “Who could persuade me to pick him up?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – With that last name would it have been too much to go with the standard Jared or even Jarod?  His saving grace so far this year is Teagarden hasn’t been much better.  I’m going to suggest you punt Salty by next Sunday if he doesn’t breakout out of his funk.  The only reason why I’m being so patient is A) He’s a catcher, so if he only hits 15 HRs this year, he’s still worth it.  B) He’s talented in a great home park and in a stacked lineup.  C) No C, but you could break B up into a few parts if you’d like.

Chris Davis – Benched yesterday.  If he ends up the biggest bust of the season, we’re gonna have to get a collection together to fly someone to have a “word” with Bill James about his Davis preseason projections of 107/40/118/.302/8.  I think we should send Mr. Met.  Bill will never expect anything.

We’ve gone over whether or not you should grab a starter early, Rudy’s fantasy baseball strategy says sure, why not?  My fantasy baseball strategy says not so much.  Whichever strategy you subscribe to, you’re still going to need some late round value.  The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  As I used to call Cliff Notes in college, this is a companion piece.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.