Fantasy Baseball Advice

Top twenty catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen are in the books.  Third basemen will be here shortly.  Today, it’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2009 Fantasy Baseball’s time to shine.  Hmm… Actually, most of these won’t shine.  They’re dull with a chance of boring.  As I said in the beginning of the year, the shortstops are even shallower than the 2nd basemen.  This held true.  A good two weeks in the major leagues and you too can make the top twenty list for shortstops!  Okay, enough of the hubbub on the tomfoolery.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Hanley Ramirez – I was hoping for a 35/35 season from Hanley, so I was a bit disappointed by a 24/27 season.  Obviously, not nearly as disappointed as I was in Jose Reyes.  (First bitter Jose Reyes mention.)  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  125/37/80/.295/35, Final Numbers:  101/24/106/.342/27

2. Derek Jeter – As many of you know, I interviewed Matthew Berry in March.  He called shenanigans.  Why I bring this up now?  Because here’s why he got mad.  His words from Deadspin.com, “So, I was just surprised by some of what he said. Especially the part about me defending Jeter! I’ve had Jeter on every fantasy “hate” list I can remember… That was a low blow, saying I liked Jeter.”  Turned out, Jeter went on to be the 3rd ranked hitter in all of the AL according to the ESPN Player Rater.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  110/12/70/.305/12, Final Numbers:  107/18/66/.334/30

3. Troy Tulowitzki – I predicted a comeback in the preseason when I said, “Let’s put Tulo’s 2008 season into a strait jacket and then submerge it into Houdini’s Milk Can.”  Then I predicted a comeback from his poor early season struggles.  Without a poor April and May, he’d be the top ranked shortstop.  Yeah, he was that good in 2009.  I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5, Final Numbers:  101/32/92/.297/20

4. Jason Bartlett – I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  90/14/66/.320/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Michael Young – In the preseason, he looked like he was headed for the Chariot of Empty Averages.  Turned out he still had some pop in his bat.  (Not pop meaning soda for those reading in Minnesota.)  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

7. Jimmy Rollins – I predicted his steals would come down and they may fall a bit more next year, too.  What should stop falling is his average.  He had some bad luck this year.  Might need one on those waving porcelain cats that are in sushi restaurants.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40, Final Numbers:  100/21/77/.250/31

8. Miguel Tejada – Wait a second, forget Jose Reyes, where is Stephen Drew?  Tejada did pretty much what I thought he would, except for a higher average.  Expect Jim Bunning to ask Congress to withdraw Tejada’s high average because of an unrealistic BABIP.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  90/15/75/.285/7, Final Numbers:  83/14/86/.313/5

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #19, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Yunel Escobar – Why can’t Yunel just steal 10 bases? Adam Dunn can steal 10 bases.  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases.  Shoot, McCann nearly stole as many as Yunel in 2009.  At least do it for your fantasy baseball owners.  (Isn’t it weird how some players sound better when you call them by their first name and some better by their last name?  I would never call McCann by Brian or Yunel by Escobar.  BTW II, doesn’t Yunel by Escobar sound like a douchebag clothing designer?  Ed Hardy? Pfft!  I’m wearing Yunel by Escobar.)  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/13/65/.300/3, Final Numbers:  89/14/76/.299/5

11. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

12. Orlando Cabrera – O-Cab < Taxi Cab Confessions < Cash Cab.  Yes, this top 20 is so shallow that one good month would get you on the list.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  90/7/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  83/9/77/.284/13

13. Ryan Theriot – In May, I traded Theriot and Adam Dunn for Joe Reyes.  Have I mentioned how much I hate Reyes?  I’d take 20+ steals from my futility infielder over Yunel’s brand of yawnstipating stats.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  90/2/40/.295/25, Final Numbers:  81/7/54/.284/21

14. Erick Aybar – Really scary how unreliable some of the guys in this top 20 were for extended periods of time.  This is why I play fast and furious with my MIs.  Aybar’s hot?  Play him!  Yunel on a streak?  Play him!  Beckham?  What the hey!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/5/58/.312/14

15. Alexei Ramirez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Preseason Rank #4, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

16. Elvis Andrus – 30+ steals, nice.  Do I hear 40+?  Maybe next year I do.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20, Final Numbers:  72/6/40/.267/33

17. Maicer Izturis – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

18. Clint Barmes – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #20, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

19. Rafael Furcal – He actually came pretty close to the numbers I predicted for him if he only played one month.  Wow, what happened to this schmohawk?  Mark Reynolds stole a dozen bases more than Furcal.  To quote DeNiro in Goodfellas, what’s the world coming to?  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/15/65/.285/35 or 25/6/40/.390/7, Final Numbers:  92/9/47/.269/12

20. Gordon Beckham – If he had a full season of Runs and RBIs, he would’ve been a top ten shortstop.  Note to Grey:  Write a lot about him leading up to 2010.  Follow up note, you already did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  58/14/63/.270/7

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.