Something tells me Leyland’s cigarettes tasted especially good today. Prince Fielder one-upped his hatred of his dad by signing with the Tigers. Now all of those Cecil fans that held onto his old jersey will look like they’re Prince fans. Detroit’s Father’s Day funtivities sure will be a tearjerker. I can’t wait for the soon-to-be-announced Soderbergh film starring Forest Whitaker and Tracy Morgan, “Home Isn’t Just A Plate I Eat Off Of.” “Viola Davis, you want juicier than The Help? Well, how about keeping the peace amongst the Fielders!” That’s her agent talking. I like how the Tigers are exploiting the DH rule by employing three of them. Bud Selig, “Hey, no fair!… No, I didn’t say no hair! This is not a toupee!” Now it’s up to the Tigers if they want to hold true to Fielder’s aptronym (Word of the Day!) or they want it to be an ironic-onym, pushing him to DH. My guess is Swiggy will be on the move to third base. Blasphemy for real baseball, but hallelujah for fantasy baseball. I imagine even if Swiggy is egregious during Spring Training at 3rd, he will still see enough games during the course of the first couple of weeks to gain 3rd base eligibility pretty quickly. After Fielder’s first 0-for-10 at DH, the Tigers will put him at first saying he’s more comfortable playing the field, er, um.
For projections in the top 10 for fantasy baseball, I had Swiggy at 105/32/115/.325/3 and Fielder at 90/35/110/.275. Honestly, I’m not sure how much I could change either projection. Cabrera had V-Mart behind him when I made those projections, so it wasn’t like he was hitting in front of Nadir Bupkis. On the other hand, I did think Fielder would go to the Nationals and the NL, so that would’ve suppressed his stats a smidge. I’m moved him up in the top 10 and I adjusted his stats to 100/37/115/.280. Maybe now Fielder will dust off the 50-homer plateau just to spite his Papa Bear. I do not use the term “bear” loosely.
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
What time is it?! 8:25 AM! No, random italicized voice, it’s time for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Second guess. All the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will live in that link. The one that reads 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. It’s also at the top of the page. No, not “Home.” To the left of the Fantasy Baseball Forum link. Now we’re cooking with gas! If you’re a completist, follow us on Twitter or Facebook. I don’t go to either site longer than 2 minutes a month, but, as I’ve told ex-girlfriends, sometimes all you need is two minutes. Hmm… Maybe that’s why they’re ex. Nah, if I were a selfish lover, I wouldn’t have a mustache. Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob. This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2012 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops. So while it is the 2012 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt. Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2012 fantasy baseball then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position. Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 80. Listed next to each player are my 2012 projections. Did I consult with whoever else does projections? It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections. Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings. Finally, as with each list in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop. I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 2nd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference. I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at three, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind. Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Even while touring the country with his stage production of Leaving Las Vegas, he still put up MVP-type numbers. Know why? Cause Swiggy Cabrera is a freak of nature. Look at Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Sam Kinison. Substance abuse never stopped any of them… Until they hit their 40′s, started bloating and showing up places three days late with nothing but a red Solo cup. I almost ranked Pujols number one. If you went that way, I wouldn’t hate on you. They’re in the same tier, y’all! I’m still looking forward, not looking back. Miggy will be 29 years old for the majority of the 2012 season and he’s solidly in his prime. He doesn’t give you around ten steals like Pujols. You know what Pujols doesn’t give you? Healthy elbow tendons. Miggy’s power has been just okay for him recently, but he’s still good for 30 homers. So, like Miggy should’ve done, just temper yourself. Oh, and this is the first tier. It goes from here until Bautista. I call this tier, “The top four. Dur.” 2012 Projections: 105/32/115/.325/3
2. Albert Pujols – I already went over my Pujols 2012 fantasy. I wrote that while base jumping in the Grand Canyon. I will say something less sarcastic than Grey usually says (but just as 3rd person-y). Grey got to see the tail end of Pete Rose’s career, Barry Bonds’s head swelling, Pedro Martinez’s prime with him asking “Who is Karim Garcia?” and enjoyed Cal Ripken’s achievements, but, with Pujols, we’re witnessing one of the top five greatest baseball players ever. That’s pretty cool. I will now return to being as cynical as the internet requires. Thanks a lot, Al Gore! 2012 Projections: 100/35/110/.305/7
3. Joey Votto – He’s more or less a 30-homer, 10-steal, .315-average, 100-run, 100-RBI hitter. If you get more, then you have the best hitter for fantasy baseball. If you get less, you will barely get less and he will still be a top 20 hitter. I’ll take that every day and twice on Muesday. Last year his walk rate went up and K-rate went down. His line drives went up so high (not literally) that it actually hurt his power a smidge. Whatever. If the worst thing that happens is that he hits too many line drives, you need to listen to your grandfather tell you about walking to school barefoot in the snow while wearing a burlap sack and being required to sing Ethel Merman, i.e., things could be worse. 2012 Projections: 100/30/110/.315/10
4. Jose Bautista – Okay, let’s address the elephant in the room. No, Prince Fielder isn’t in my room while I write this. The elephant in the room is I have Bautista after Votto. I have Bautista lower than some other fantasy baseball ‘perts. It’s the same tier, but I’m still wary of Bautista. I’m trying here. I made a life-sized Bautista cardboard cutout with outstretched arms and I fell into it for a trust exercise and he dropped me. Bad omen, I say as if I were Yoda. My biggest fear is after not trusting Bautista last year I will finally draft him and he bombs in the bad way. Since there’s nothing in his stats that say this should happen, it’s probably totally unrealistic. Yet… Ugh. Bautista, why do you conflict me? 2012 Projections: 100/38/105/.265/10
5. Evan Longoria – I want Longoria in every league this year. If I see him ranked 5th overall by someone else, then I’m moving him up to 4. If he’s ranked number 4 by someone, I’m moving him up to 3. If someone has the gall to rank him first, I’m ranking him zero. And don’t make me go to Sub-Zero. Ryu-ken! You best believe I’m Tekken Longoria! (That’s a pun for the kids.) His average was .244 last year due to a pee-poor BABIP. Yet, his K-rate actually went down and his walk rate went up. His steals went down but he was on first 28 less times last year. He can easily get 7 to 10 steals if he sees first just a few more times. I’m not even going to talk about runs and RBIs because of how fickle they are, but there’s no reason to think he won’t see production. You’re not drafting guys for last year. You’re drafting them for 2012. Wanna play in a 2011 throwback league? Get in a DeLorean and hit the gas. I’m living on Wisteria Lane and texting Tony Parker what he’s missing. This, friends, is Longoria’s MVP year. Oh, and this is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Justin Upton. I call this tier, “I’m fine taking one of these guys with my first pick; Tulo better not disappoint me. Why do I always have such trepidations about Tulo? Maybe it’s the fact he can’t ever stay healthy.” 2012 Projections: 105/34/120/.280/7
6. Matt Kemp – When he lost the MVP, he said now he’s going to go 50/50. That’s nice, and Tom Cruise wants to be five inches taller so he can see the top of Katie Holmes’s head. Neither are happening any time soon. Kemp’s BABIP last year was .380. Even with his career BABIP’s being fairly high, that’s high. When his luck regresses and, with as much as he strikes out, he’s not hitting .324 again. He probably won’t hit .300. With less times on base, he’ll have fewer steals. His power was off the charts too. 2011 was a career year. No matter how much he wants to exceed it. That doesn’t mean a .290 hitter going 30/25 can’t be valuable. 2012 Projections: 100/30/105/.290/25
7. Troy Tulowitzki – Something about 30 homers just makes everything better. If Tulo would’ve missed the month of September and only had 27 homers, I think more people would’ve been pushing away from him this year, but he reached that arbitrary benchmark and he has the nice position eligibility. One of these years we’re actually going to get a full season from Tulo and he’s going to blow the world away. Since he’s only 27 years old for 2012, it may as well be this year. Worst case scenario, you get solid 5 categories from a terrible position and he misses a month of games. Best case scenario, he plays 150+ games, puts up MVP-type numbers and wins you a house during the Century 21 Home Run Derby. 2012 Projections: 95/32/110/.305/10
8. Justin Upton – In the first few rounds, I want as many proven, consistent performers as I can find. I don’t think that’s Upton. But he’s so tantalizing! And talented! And he’s not an average drain like Fellatio Upton, who is not Kate Upton, though you’d like to think so. Upton might be the best outfielder and the number one overall pick by next year. He just went 31/21/.289 at the age of 23 and didn’t do a whole lot that says he can’t do it again. If anything, he could easily exceed last year’s numbers. At such a young age though, he could take a step back and disappoint. At the turn in the first round, it’s not a bad gamble to grab Upton and someone less risky like Prince Fielder. Want someone that could put up the season Kemp just did in 2011? Little Ups is your man. 2012 Projections: 100/30/100/.300/20
9. Prince Fielder – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 20 for fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Less exciting than the next tier, but more consistent.” Immediately you have to ask yourself if you want sexy or consistent. Sexy can win championships, but consistent can too, which is in no way related to Jorge Cantu. Fielder is the Saberhagen of hitters. Your grapes would be hard-pressed to find a hitter that alternates between a great year and a solid, if unspectacular year more than Fielder. If that holds, we’re looking forward to a solid, if unspectacular year, which almost had me knock him down the rankings. In the end, I felt that whole on-again, off-again year-to-year performance thing was too anecdotal to give too much credence. Then I sued John Fogerty because I wanted to use the word credence. When Prince signed with the Tigers, I went over my Prince Fielder fantasy. It only has two fat jokes. Sorry. 2012 Projections: 100/37/115/.280
10. Adrian Gonzalez – Who could’ve predicted Gonzalez would move from Petco to Fenway and have his worst power year since 2006? Rhetorical! For some reason (I’m sure someone knows), his ground balls went through the roof (not literally, unless there’s ants reading this). A ground ball rate of 46.7 is not terrific. It’s around Bourjos, Austin Jackson and Drew Stubbs’s type ground ball rate. His BABIP was off the charts lucky, so, with all those ground balls, he was inches away from having a hideous season. I don’t want to overrate any of this. He’s still in a great park, solid lineup and the middle of his prime. Even if he hits only 30 homers (which he should), he’s going to have great counting stats and a decent enough average. If I had to choose one 1st rounder that might have a disastrous season out of nowhere, I’d choose A-Gon, but that’s a gut call. We’re not drafting based on my gut, especially not after I just ate Thai. 2012 Projections: 100/32/115/.275
After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season. Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me. We are totally fine. Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you. If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense? You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise. I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging. Either way, it made no difference. Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down. But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers: 111/30/105/.344/2
2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10. People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters. People said you can get 1st basemen later. Grab Youkilis, people said. Or Aubrey Huff. Or Morneau. Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau. Oh, well. They ain’t all gems. Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs. Okay, one more Morneau comment. In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have? Exactly!” And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers: 108/27/117/.338/1
3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300. On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols. It would give The Manhole a run for its money. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers: 105/37/99/.299/9
4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft. How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks? None. There were shortstops that flopped. Outfielders that flopped. No 1st basemen. Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers: 101/29/103/.309/8
5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year. Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1
6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason. “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.” That’s you. Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.” Only I didn’t say stuff. I said shizz. Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers: 88/11/106/.338/6
7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it. Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it. Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year. I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers: 90/31/94/.301/2
8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now. That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers: 69/31/105/.300/1
9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed. BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus. And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now. Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 73/31/95/.303/2
10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern. The rule of three yadda3. As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers: 90/39/111/.248/4
12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value. Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye. They overrate average and steals. As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers: 81/33/116/.253/1
13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season. Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto. No, I don’t use those words lightly. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 66/19/78/.293/11
14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player. I’ll explain. If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value. It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average. See Michael Young as another example. Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections: 65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers: 86/18/63/.285/14
15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers: 74/19/95/.291/2
16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility. Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far. I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists. What a shizzshow in Minny. At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven. Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins. Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections: 85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers: 70/20/70/.284/11
17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average. I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/29/87/.254/9
18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler. Feel free to share if you figure it out. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 67/21/76/.282/4
19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint. Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers: 66/18/94/.275/4
20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking. I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall. Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would. Terrible average, good power and some light speed. So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career. It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra. Or something. Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers: 84/37/86/.221/6
Jered Weaver will not make his final start of the year because he doesn’t care about your H2H team. Weaver ends the season with a line of 18-8/2.41/1.01/198. If you throw out three bad starts, his ERA would’ve been 1.72 in 220 innings, but if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts no one would ever leave the bathroom. Verlander’s gonna win the Cy Young, shizz is foregone. Put it in an envelope and hand it to your mail carrier so he can steam it open and check it for cash. Either way, let’s look at what Weaver did this year. Mullet over, if you will. Weaver was better last year. Blunt is as blunt does right there. His K-rate, xFIP and hair were all better. His K-rate this year was right in line with past rates, if you exclude 2010. For now, last year looks like the outlier for Ks. Also, batters made contact with his pitches inside the strike zone at a higher rate than last year and hitters weren’t as fooled by pitches outside the strike zone. In the end, he’s not going to be terrible in 2012; it’s just a repeat of 2011 seems unlikely, unless Superman circles the earth a few hundred times. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Ryan Zimmerman – Sitting out the last two games with a sore hamstring. What’s this, the last few days of senior year and he’s already going to his safety school? Play the games!
Alex Gonzalez – Left the game after aggravating his calf. That’s the last time he says he likes his hamstring better.
Jose Reyes – 3-for-6 as he hit two homers yesterday. That hit the spot in one of my leagues. It was like the Kool-Aid man crashing through your wall and yelling “Oh, yeah!” then spackling the hole over because no one wants a giant hole in their wall.
Chris Capuano – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks. Ended the season with a 4.55 ERA. Crapuano was pretttay, pretttay mediocre.
Jeanmar Gomez – 4 2/3 IP, 8 ER. Watching this game yesterday I felt like everyone screaming at Rocky to throw in the towel to save Apollo’s life. Jesus effin’ Montero, they had to let Gomez give up eight earned with no lifeline? Throw him a freakin’ bone and pull him from the G-d damn game! Fantasy baseball: When real life stress isn’t enough.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Done for the year. Back date this to last Thursday when I thought he was done for the year.
Prince Fielder – 3-for-3, 5 RBIs and 3 homers. Then the soon-to-be free agent, Prince, changed his name to a symbol — $.
Howie Kendrick – Left the game with a sprained wrist. He’s day-to–Oh, yeah, today’s the last day. Didn’t the season just start? I’m sad.
Matt Joyce – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 19th homer. Member when he was the meow’s cat early in the season? Oh, those were the days. It was warm out! You had more hair! Okay, now for another friendly reminder — grab everyone on the Braves, Cardinals, Rays and Red Sox. If there’s a one game playoff, you want to be the one with these guys, not the schmohawk you’re trying to beat.
Matt Holliday – Pulled from the game because of his injured middle finger. Some of his owners might have a healthy middle finger for him.
Allen Craig – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and a homer as he replaced Holliday. Yeah, I’d even grab Craig for that potential one day playoff game.
Tyler Flowers – Hit two homers in the last two games. It’s too late for this year, but please, White Sox, do the right thing and give him a chance to play. I’m begging here.
Adam Dunn – 0-for-3 with 3 Ks, bringing his average to .159. Elias Sports Bureau said there’s never been a player that hit less than half his weight until Adam Dunn. Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was heard around the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Terry, in Human Resources, broke the previous record of seventeen with how many times someone’s blamed a fart on a ceiling fan.”
Justin Upton – After being hit in the head by a pitch on Sunday, he returned to the lineup yesterday and was hit in the face by a fly ball. In the playoffs, Upton will wear a glove on his head.
Jarrod Parker – 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 1 K. Okay, start the hype machine for next year.
Mike Morse – For his 30th homer on Monday, Livan bought him a bottle of Cristal. Yesterday, Morse hit his 31st homer. For that, Livan gave him a lap dance.
Mike Napoli – Two homers yesterday vs. his old club, and specifically his old manager who never played him. That revenge had to feel sweet for Napoli. Remember, never get involved in a land war in Asia and never go against Napoli when pride is on the line. He takes 28 homers, and even more remarkably, a .317 average into the final game of the season.
Ian Kinsler – 3-for-5 with a slam & legs to finally get him to 30/30. This quest for 30/30 reminded me of an actor doing a movie for a paycheck. 30/30 is Kinsler’s Little Fockers.
Josh Willingham – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and a home run. That gives him 29 homers and 98 RBIs on the year. This blew Rudy’s mind yesterday on IM. “You see Willingham’s almost at 30/100?” “Yeah, I saw.” “I have nothing else to say about that.” “Neither do I.”
Ryan Lavarnway – With Salty and Varitek banged up, Lavarnway got the start and hit two homers yesterday. Similarly to Tyler Flowers, I’d love to see Lavarnway get a starting job next year. Do it for all of Ryan’s fans. You know, the Lavarnwayians. Who are not related to Damon, Marlon, Kim, Keenan, Elvira, Michael, Kyla, Bella, Shawn, Damien (have I mentioned Damien yet?), Daphne, Jolie, Bella, Nadia, Shawn Howell, Chaunté and Craig.
Marco Scutaro – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs, home run, hitting near .400 in September. What-what?! Actually the what-what was what I just mentioned.
Chris Parmelee – 2-for-4 with a homer and in the same game Tosoni hit a grand slam. Parmelee and Tosoni? Sounds like rejected cast members of The Jersey Shore.
Delmon Young – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 12th homer. I feel like every year drafting Delmon is like falling for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.
Anthony Bass – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks. Sweet… if I didn’t start Jeanmar and Blake Beavan.
Javier Vazquez – 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks. He only pitched this well to end the season because I dropped him in all of my leagues three months ago. Oh, and I blame Steve Bartman too.
Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-3 with his 40th steal. I’m in the process of writing up top 20 recaps that will be on the site next week. You wanna know one guy that really surprised me? Steve Lombardozzi. No, Random Italicized Voice, not Steve Lombardozzi. Emilio Bonifacio. Didn’t realize what a great year he ended up having. I mean, I should. I only wrote 1500 words a day about fantasy baseball for the last 6 months. Imagine I wrote all of that in a spiral notebook. You’d have me committed. It’s all about the medium!
Jimmy Rollins – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs, 2 runs and a slam & legs. Now has 16 homers and 30 steals. You know, you could’ve done worse at shortstop. Hanley comes to mind. He would’ve been worse. On a side note, I wonder if the Phils don’t want the Braves in the playoffs or they’re just doing the honorable thing by playing their regulars. I’m guessing it’s the latter.
Joe Blanton – Will start the season finale for the Phillies, which will set up their rotation perfectly for Blanton to return to pitch Game 6 of the NLDS.
