Fantasy Baseball Advice

We already went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and the top 20 1st first basemen for 2009.  Today, it’s all about the top 20 2nd basemen.  The 2nd basemen pool is shallow (not as kiddie-sized as the shortstops, but we’ll get to them in the next post).  Because of this shallowivity (Made Up Word Of The Day!), the 2nd basemen rankings can be split up into two tiers.  The guys you want and the tomato-tomahto guys.  The Guys You Want’s names kinda give them away.  The Tomato-Tomahto Guys are a whole group of 2nd basemen that are so close to each other in rank, it really didn’t matter which one of them you owned.  At one time or another during the season, you probably dropped one of the Tomato-Tomahtos for a different Tomato-Tomahto.  Everyone probably has one Tomato-Tomahto guy that they hated during the season.  I have a few.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Chase Utley – He was my choice for NL MVP in the preseason.  He’s going to be my 2010 NL MVP preseason selection.  Probably will be my 2011 preseason NL MVP choice and maybe my pick in 2012.  Then, one day when Pujols is not only hurt, but plays hurt, Utley will win it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  105/29/105/.295/10, Final Numbers: 112/31/93/.282/23

2. Aaron Hill – Let’s get it out of the way upfront, there was some surprises in the 2nd basemen rankings.  We (or you) can sit there and say to yourself, “Gadzooks, Grey did a terrible job of ranking the 2nd basemen.”  First, who says gadzooks?  Are you in a comic strip?  Second, no one ranked Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Marco Scutaro, Adam Kennedy et al anywhere near the top fifteen coming into the season.  There’s the top guys and there’s the bottom guys at MI.  This is why I usually punt the middle and avoid middle infielders between rounds 7 and 15.  Either get a top one, or ignore and take a flier later.  More will be said on this in the offseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  103/36/108/.286/6

3. Robinson Cano -  Someone has a terrific season the previous year (Pedroia, Hamilton) and I pulled back for 2009.  A player craps the bed in the previous season (Robinson Cano) and I got excited about them for 2009.  This is the story of my life with women too.  Kick me in the nads and I’ll buy you steel-tipped boots.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3, Final Numbers:  103/25/85/.320/5

4. Brian Roberts – My predicted numbers weren’t that far off from where he ended up.  Didn’t like him in April of 2008, didn’t like him in April of 2009, I think I might like him a bit more in 2010 because he’s finally become predictable.  Predictable is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30, Final Numbers:  110/16/79/.283/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Almost surprising as his season is his Christian faith (come on, his name is screaming for a mohel).  Everyone knows the good, so let’s look at the glass half empty.  17/52 and 11 steals with a .297 average in the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, 10/39 in 9 more at-bats.  Not terrible, just not as good.  His eligibility definitely helped offset the regression.   Nevertheless, it was there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Ian Kinsler – It’s great to finally see what he’s capable of over an entire season.  He’s a liability on average, plus speed and nearly as solid as Utley elsewhere.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25, Final Numbers:  101/31/86/.253/31

7. Dustin Pedroia – This was the season I was worried about when I advised people (that’s you!) to stay away from Pedrioa.  Was 2009 a terrible season?  No, I never thought for one second he’d be terrible.  I just didn’t buy into him as a 2nd round pick and a repeat of his MVP season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15, Final Numbers:  115/15/72/.296/20

8. Brandon Phillips – For some reason, no one seems to trust Phillips.  20/20 for three seasons straight and he gets no respect.  Whatevs, I’ll keep owning him since no one else wants to.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25, Final Numbers:  78/20/98/.276/20

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – With a swift kick to the nuts, the tomato-tomahto portion of the program begins.  It didn’t really matter which of these guys you owned, they were all productive at some points during the season and yawnstipating at other times.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Marco Scutaro – If you would’ve told me in February there would be two Blue Jay 2nd basemen in the top 10, I would’ve punched you in the mouth.  MAR…co… SCUT…aro… had a decent season for a guy that probably wasn’t even owned in your league for a third of the season and returned from Asia with pasta.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Gene Rayburn, “2nd base is so shallow…”  You, “How shallow is it?”  Kennedy had only a good May and September and he’s ranked 11th overall.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Felipe Lopez -  You would think a guy whose ADP was 213 and who is ranked this high would have been a huge success.  You’d be dead wrong.  So many times I wanted to cut the Fe-Lopezian tubes, then he’d go and have a 1-for-3 game with 1 Run and I’d hold him.  Ugh, he had one of the more frustrating seasons.  How does he only steal 6 bases all year?!  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases!  Preseason Unranked, but he did make the Cheap Alternatives post, Final Numbers:  88/9/57/.310/6

13. Jose Lopez – I usually go with speed at MI, but, if you needed power there, J. Lo turned in a perfectly respectable season.  I would’ve taken his season over F. Lo any day of the week and twice on Muesday.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5, Final Numbers:  69/25/96/.272/3

14. Alexei Ramirez – When you’re ranked within sneezing distance of Luis Castillo, I hope you get Swine Flu.  Ramirez had one good month (May, 7 homers, 2 steals while batting .283) and 4 yawnstipating months.  How does he only steal 4 bases from June 19th on?  I think I’ve found my first candidate of the offseason that I won’t be drafting on any teams in 2010.  No matter what stories come out of spring training. Alexei has never seen the ball this well before! Alexei gained 120 of muscle mass! Alexei can go to hell.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

15. Maicer Izturis – Maicer, what goes on?  Maicer…  It’s funny all the people ending the season at exactly .300 or just over it.  Don’t make me get Vin Scully to recount the story of how Ted Williams started both sides of a doubleheader while sitting on .400 for the season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

16. Alberto Callaspo – I liked him in the preseason, but even with that like, I couldn’t generate the enthusiasm to draft him anywhere.  Let’s face it, his mother barely gets excited about his hitting.  Was also mentioned in that Cheap Alternatives thingamapost, Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Luis Castillo – Please don’t make me say anything about Castillo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/1/40/.302/20

18. Placido Polanco – Placido Polanco is Yoda to Callaspo’s Luke.  Can we just call these guys Polancallaspo?  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7, Final Numbers:  82/10/72/.285/7

19. Dan Uggla – Even with how awful this list is, Aramis Ramirez, with 2nd base eligibility, would not have made this list.  Yes, 2nd base was deeper than 3rd base.  Bring back steroids!  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5, Final Numbers:  84/31/90/.243/2

20. Clint Barmes – This is one of my big problems with the ESPN Player Rater (this is where these rankings come from; makes it less subjective).  I’d rank Barmes as the last guy you’d want and above all the tomato-tomahtos.  I don’t really mind the average, but his homers and steals were valuable.  This is how I ended up with Mark Reynolds on all my teams in 2009 and how I will probably have Barmes on some 2010 teams.  (This is not official yet, we’re still recapping.  Barmes needs an everyday job.)  Was ranked 20th as a Shortstop, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

Fangraphs, a great site to get lost in for a few hours, has this stat called O-Swing %.  I don’t know if they invented it, but they probably did because they’re smarter than us.  The O-Swing % is not the amount of times you can fail to satisfy a woman prior to her swinging her arm and knocking you to the floor.  Repeat, it is not that.  Though, if someone can come up with that stat, let me know.  No, the O-Swing % is, “The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.”  Yes, they may as well call this the AlfonsO-Swing %.  Hackers score high, methodical, patient hitters score low.  Doesn’t mean high is bad and low is good.  Some guys hack and have always hacked.  B. Giles never swings, but he never swings because, when he does, the ball trickles to 2nd base.  I was more concerned with the hitters swinging more often at balls outside the strike zone than their career norm.  How do you apply this list to fantasy baseball?  Don’t consider these guys prime candidates for bounce backs.  They’re not battling simply bad luck, they’re pressing.  Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball hitters that have lost the strike zone:

Bengie Molina – At 49%, he also happens to be number one  for the major leagues for swinging at balls.  As you can imagine 49% is a terrible rate.  His career is 32.5%.  He’s pressing.  Why?  Brian Sabean has already said that Posey’s time is coming soon and Molina’s time on the Giants is winding down.  Tick-tock, veteran catcher, tick-tock.

Adrian Beltre – Career 29.9%, so far in 2009 he’s at a 38.3%.  This is what happens when you can’t turn to steriods in your contract year.  Is that Ice Ice Baby playing?  Nope, it’s Under Pressure.

Placido Polanco – 28.3%.  I’m no fan of Crapolanco and he’s proven my point thus far.  His BABIP is low for him so he might be swinging out of the strike zone to compensate for his bad luck.  Either way, blech.

Hideki Matsui – 20% with a career rate of 15.2.  In his abbreviated season last year, he had a hard time finding the right pitches to swing at and this has carried over.  Don’t feel bad for Matsui, when this whole baseball thing stops, he’ll have more time for his porn collection.

David Ortiz – 24.8% on the O-Swing rate and 68.9% of Sawx fans wondering if they can get anything for their Ortiz jersey on eBay.  Did he start pressing or are his eyes all moogly-boogly?  Whatever the case, he’s pretty far from his career rate of 18.4%.

We’ve already gone over the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Other positions’ top 20 lists can be found under 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Now here we are with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. While going through this top twenty list of 2nd basemen something stood out at me.  The position is extremely shallow.  You really don’t want to have to resort to the bottom half of this list, but this list is actually deeper than the top twenty shortstop list that is coming later in the week.  Scary, right?  As with the previous lists, tiers are mentioned within the player blurbs.  My 2009 fantasy baseball projections are also noted.  Here’s the list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Chase Utley – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Utley’s 2009 projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Kinsler’s 2009 projections.

3. Brandon Phillips – You’re in a new tier here, one that goes to Uggla.  I call this tier, “If the spot is right, draft one of these guys, but they’re probably going to be overrated.”  I really took a left turn on this top 20 list.  I’ve never been a fan of Brandon Phillips, but I see lots of people zigging, so what did I do? Zagged!  Barring injury, he can get to 25/25 while raising his average a bit from last year.  I’d let the rest of the schmohawks in your league grab Pedroia, Brian Roberts or Uggla while you grab Phillips.  (BTW, I already covered Brandon Phillips in a different post.)  2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25

4. Alexei Ramirez – Another guy I bumped up higher than most fantasy baseball ‘perts.  At the end of 2009, Alexei Ramirez is going to be above Dustin Pedrioa on top 20 2nd basemen lists.  Why are you drafting your 2009 fantasy team like it’s 2008?  Are you in college in Boston and you bet your friend you would draft Pedroia if he finished a whole bottle of Mad Dog 20/20?  Pedroia had a great 2008, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be incredible in 2009.  Good, but not incredible.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15

5. Dustin Pedroia – I was pushing Scrappy Doo real hard last year in the preseason.  I was telling people he can be a cheap 15/15 player.  And he can still go 15/15, but why is he suddenly being pushed by others like he’s King Shinola of Siam?  Did King Shinola die and make Pedroia King?  I don’t think King Shinola died.  Pedroia won an MVP in about the stankest of years for MVP candidates ever.  People taking him in the 2nd round of 2009 drafts need to chillax.   2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15

6. Brian Roberts – It’s no secret that I didn’t like Brian Roberts last year.  Guess what?  Still don’t.  2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30

7. Dan Uggla – Uggla’s a solid, low average power source.  He’s like mini-Dunn, which sounds like what an insensitive guy would tell his girlfriend if he wanted a break. “We’re not breaking up, we’re just mini-Dunn.”  2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5

8. Robinson Cano – We’re in a new tier here.  This tier goes until Kendrick.  This tier I call, “Good value before we get to total Crapolanco.”   2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3

9. Kelly Johnson – Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez and Mark DeRosa are a coin flip.  You want the Braves schmohawk who’s going to give you 14/10 or you want the Indians or Mariners schmohawk who is going to give you 15/5.  It’s called Schmohawk’s Choice.  2009 Projections:  90/14/65/.285/10

10. Jose Lopez – Looking at cursory numbers at the end of November had me thinking Lopez was going to be a great sleeper for 2009.  As I dug deeper, I realized he’s not really due to take a huge jump forward.  Though he could repeat last year’s numbers, which makes him moderately valuable.  Kinda like your nana’s broach.  Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5

11. Mark DeRosa – I’m seeing him a lot higher on other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings lists so take necessary precautions to not overrate him.  A career year at 33-years-old screams outlier.  2009 Projections:  75/15/70/.280/5

12. Rickie Weeks – Call me a stewpid bizzlenitch.  I don’t care.  Old habits die hard.  I believe in leaving at least a $3 tip even if the bill is under $10, I believe you should live with a girl before you get married and I believe in Rickie Weeks.  Maybe I’m a dope.  2009 Projections:  90/15/60/.250/20

13. Howie Kendrick – What are we to expect from Kendrick?  A) Injuries B) Blah power C) A little speed D) Anything’s better than Polanco.  2009 Projections:  70/7/55/.310/10 and two 15-day DL trips.

14. Placido Polanco – This is a new tier and it goes from Crapolanco until Orlando Hudson.  I call this tier, “Punt.”  Seriously, why are you drafting Polanco?  What’s he going to do for you?  Take a flier on Kendrick or wait to take a flier on some late round doode.   2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7

15. Kaz Matsui – In 2008, Kaz Matsui had a usable season even if he had to wear diapers for half the season.  Sorta like Jamie Moyer.  2009 Projections:  65/5/40/.280/20

16. Freddy Sanchez -  See Crapolanco.  Not even sure why I’m wasting my time writing up this schmohawk.  2009 Projections:  80/10/60/.285

17. Orlando Hudson – O-Dog is a poor man’s Polanco.  Blah!  2009 Projections:  75/10/45/.280/5

18. Mike Aviles – Here’s the final tier of 2nd basemen.  I’ll call this tier, “A-Ha! Take on me.”  Aviles won’t bat .325 again; he probably won’t bat .300.  In the end, he might not end up much better than 10/10, but he’s got some mystery to him.  The unknown is better than the known when you’re this deep into the 2nd basemen pool.  2009 Projections:  80/10/55/.295/10

19. Blake DeWitt – I already covered him in a Blake DeWitt, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper post.  You’re much better off taking DeWitt late instead of Polanco, Matsui or Hudson.  2009 Projections:  60/14/75/.275/7

20. Emmanuel Burriss/Eugenio Velez – Whichever schmohawk wins the Giants 2nd base job as long as it’s not Kevin Frandsen.  With this pick, you’re going for SAGNOF.  2009 Projections:  A badonkadonk of steals.

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Ian Stewart – I already went here in the Ian Stewart 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  I could’ve put him up with Aviles, but I wanted to highlight him down here.  Just make sure he’s eligible for 2nd base in your league.  2009 Projections:  65/17/80/.265/5 (<–optimistic, but reachable)

Asdrubal Cabrera – With a first name that sounds like what Kaz Matsui was suffering from in the beginning of 2008, it’s easy to overlook Asdrubal Cabrera for 2009 fantasy baseball.  But Asdrubal (hehe, I said “but Asdrubal”) had a solid 2nd half last year.  Okay, this was preceded by him being sent down to the minors.  Cabrera won’t put together his 2008 2nd half over an entire season in 2009, but he’s worth the flier over some of the above names cough Polanco cough.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10

Part 3 of How Valid is the ESPN Player Rater?

In two previous articles (part 1 and part 2), we’ve laid out alternative views for judging the most valuable player in 2007 5×5 MLB fantasy baseball (we say Peavy) and for pitchers – using and abusing the ESPN Player Rater in the process.

In this article, we’re going to focus on valuing hitters. The questions we will tackle are:

1) What is the value of each hitting stat?
2) How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value?
3) How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?

To download our player rankings for 2007, please click our 2007 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. To view the ESPN Player Rater.

What is the value of each hitting stat?

Our approach towards valuing player stats is to look at two factors: 1) the difference between a player’s statistics and those provided by the best available option (BAO) on the free agent wire (which would take position depth/scarcity into account) and 2) the impact that stat difference might have on a league’s standings (ambivalent to position).

We’ll set position scarcity aside for a second to look at the composite stats for the BAO hitter in 2007: 67 Runs / 14 HR / 65 RBI / 6 SBs / .277. The closest player equivalent to these stats is Luis Gonzalez.

We used the final standings of our fantasy league to understand the impact of each statistic by looking at the standard deviations between teams’ totals. While it would be better if we had more league standings on which to base these standard deviations, we still feel this is superior to building ratios off team averages because it takes into account that some statistics have larger percentage gaps between teams vs. others. This is most evident when looking at HR vs. SB – while the average team in our league average 1.69 HRs to 1 SB and the BAO has a HR:SB ratio of 2.33:1, the observed impact on a team was actually 1:0.77 or that a HR has more value (not even counting the R/HR/RBI/AVG implications) to a team’s rank in the standings than an SB.

The ratio for these stats based on our analysis was: 3.3 Runs / 1 HR / 2.8 RBI / 1.3 SBs / .003 AVG. Points are credited based on these ratios (a point actually equals the above ratio * 4.6) after subtracting the BAO’s stats.

Okay, let’s do two comparisons to show this works in action.

Eric Byrnes (103 / 21 / 83 / 50 / .286) vs. Miguel Cabrera ( 91 / 34 / 119 / 2 / .320)

This is an interesting one as it asks that inevitable question – how much are SBs really worth? Is it worth the addition 48 SBs to sacrifice those HRs, RBIs, and AVG that Miguel Cabrera provides? Let’s look at the points comparison of R/HR/RBI/AVG:

Runs: Byrnes 2.4 to 1.5
HRs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.55
RBIs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.43
AVG: Cabrera 3.48 to 1.01

(Note: While it might not look right that Cabrera’s 34 HRs could be worth 2.5x that of Eric Byrnes 21 HRs, remember that the BAO provides 14 HRs. So this is really a comparison of 20 HRs (34-14) vs. 7 HRs.)

Counting just these stats, Cabrera is about twice as valuable as Eric Byrnes (12.89 to 6.39).

But Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs is huge given the average team only had 162 SBs in our league. A total like this could let you dominate SBs or focus on non-speed guys when filling out other positions (say, taking Khalil Greene’s 27 HRs instead of J. Lugo’s 33 SBs).

Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs equates to 7.25 points in our scale while Cabrera’s 2 SBs equate to negative 0.45 points because it’s less than the BAO would’ve provided (which is 6). So factoring in SBs, Eric Byrnes is the more valuable fantasy hitter (13.6 to 12.4). But if your team was set for SBs, trading Eric Byrnes for Miguel Cabrera would be a no-brainer.

Placido Polanco (105 / 9 / 67 / 7 / .341) vs. Dan Uggla (113 / 31 / 88 / 2 / .245)

This comparison focuses on Polanco’s AVG contribution vs. Uggla’s power contribution.

Runs: Uggla 2.65 to 2.12
HRs: Uggla 4.0 to -0.78
RBIs: Uggla 1.94 to 0.30
SBs: Polanco -0.05 to -0.86

(Note: These comparisons do factor in position scarcity – hence, Uggla’s 2 SBs receive more negative credit that M. Cabrera’s above since the 2B BAO steals more than the average player.)

Counting these stats, Uggla is well ahead at 7.73 to 1.59 points, with the biggest driver being his 31 HRs which are worth 4.78 points more than Polanco’s 9 HRs.

But those HRs come at a price. Uggla’s .245 average is well below the BAO average of .277 (actually 2B’s have higher AVG than other positions so it’s even worse – examples of high batting average marginal 2Bs include Orlando Hudson’s .294, Luis Castillo’s .301, and Ronnie Belliard’s .290). Combining that bad average with his above average AB total (632), Uggla’s average would drop the average team’s AVG by .004 vs. the BAO 2B. This earns him a negative 3.28.

On the other hand, Polanco’s .341 in 587 ABs is worth a positive 4.77 points – more, in fact, than Uggla’s 31 HRs. He’s worth about an extra .004 on your team average meaning that swapping these two creates a .008 swing, a more dramatic swing than the 22 HR difference.

So while Placido Polanco is a negative on a team’s HR and SBs (and just about BAO level on RBIs), his high AVG catapults him into being a more valuable fantasy baseball contributor (6.4 to 4.4). If Uggla could just get to something like a .275 average or steal 20-30 SBs, his HR/RBIs could help catapult him up the 2B rankings (even with the anchor-like AVG, he ended up 7th most valuable 2B, well ahead of the .317 hitting ROY Dustin Pedroia).

How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value?

Position depth/scarcity plays a role from draft day through the end of the season.

During draft day, position depth/scarcity can increase/decrease a player’s value. A common practice is to ‘tier’ players at each position and try to group together similarly valued players. If there is only one player left in, say, the 2B tier and 5 similar valued players at SS, you may increase that 2B’s draft value because you can wait a round and likely get one of those shortstops.

After the draft, position depth/scarcity is used to compare the marginal benefit/loss of trading or adding/dropping one player over the next – e.g., I could trade Placido Polanco and replace him with little to no dropoff in any stat except AVG.

To factor this into our analysis, we extended our Best Available Option (BAO) concept to each position. We started with 10 rostered players for catchers and infield positions and 50 outfielders. We split the 1B/3B and 2B/SS positions equally and then divided up the utility position based on instinct and position depth (30% 1B, 2.5% 2B, 2.5% SS, 5% 3B, 0% C, 40% OF, 20% DH). We created composite stats for BAOs at each position – so for catcher, we took the 11th best AVG, 11th best HRs, etc. We then credited point totals based on the BAO at the position (“Position Points”) and averaged them with our average hitter BAO (“Player Points”). (Note: Since team rankings are position-agnostic – you don’t get more credit if it’s a middle infielder who hits a HR – there is a need to balance position depth/scarcity with overall stats. To keep it simple, we weighted it 50/50).

Below are the BAO stats per position (R / HR / RBI / SB / AVG) and some close statistical fits:

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

The most interesting about these BAO totals is how relatively close they are. The corner positions have a slight advantage in power and the middle infield spots have a slight advantage for runs, SBs and average. Catchers are weakest – particularly in Runs as catchers play less games and are disproportionately hitting 6th to 9th (less run opportunities).

Perhaps most surprisingly, the OF position looks no better than the middle infield positions. Wouldn’t you expect OF was a deeper position than middle infield? Isn’t BJ Upton more valuable as a 2B than an OF? Short answer: not really.

Here’s why: You’ve got roughly 15 2B, 15 SS, and somewhere between 52-57 outfielders on league rosters (OF are often used for UTIL positions). Looking at MLB rosters, you have roughly 30 starting 2B, 30 starting SS, and 90 starting OFs. FLB rosters, thus, are cutting deeper into the percentage of starting OFs vs. 2B/SS.

In addition, 2B/SS have added some pop over the years. 29 middle infielders hit at least 12 HRs. Granted, some had bad averages (Bill Hall, Juan Uribe, Stephen Drew), but the perception of those positions being power-challenged is outdated. (What IS true, though, is that it’s rare to find a middle infielder with 30+ HR power).

Outfielders, on the other hand, aren’t that deep. Only about 55 hit 15 or more home runs and that includes some players that might be at other positions (Berkman, Upton, Stairs) and the weakest ones look an awful lot like Luis Gonzalez and Austin Kearns (the BAO matches).

So while we did factor position depth/scarcity into our analysis, it really didn’t play a major role for hitters. The greatest impact was at catcher where the troika of great catchers in 2007 (Jorge Posada, V-Mart, Russell Martin) got about a 2 point boost because the Catcher position was the weakest in terms of BAO.

So Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins had extremely valuable fantasy years but the fact they played SS really didn’t add any significant value (maybe +2-3%).

How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?

ESPN has a much simpler approach for estimating hitter value than the approach we have described above. It creates a cap at 5 points and a floor at 0 points. 5 points are awarded to the MLB leader in the stat and then each other player’s total is divided into the leader’s total and then multiplied by 5 to get their total – e.g., A-Rod led with 54 homers. David Wright had 30. He received 30/54 (.556) * 5 = 2.78 points in HR. Average is done in a slightly more complex way but the lowest possible total is zero (even if the player’s average has negative value).

From a macro-perspective, this simplistic approach works fine. The top hitters are going to appear near the top, the okay hitters in the middle, the bad hitters on the bottom. At a micro-perspective, we think ESPN’s simplistic approach has greater flaws vs. our approach. These flaws are less for hitters than pitchers, though, as the greater issues arise around ratio/average based stats and pitchers have two (ERA, WHIP) vs. one for hitters (AVG).

In a previous article, we identified four issues with ESPN Player Rater for valuing pitchers

1) Capping High Points at 5
2) Positive Ratio/Average Contributions Are Undercredited
3) Negative Contributions Aren’t Penalized
4) Overcrediting of Slightly Above Average Performance

These four issues all play a role for valuing hitters but #2 and #3 are not as major an issue because ERA/WHIP are more polarizing than AVG. For example, even low value hitters may hit .290 but only a great starting pitcher can manage an ERA near 3.00 ERA.

An additional issue we’ve found is:

5) The league leader used as the points base distorts the distribution of points – While the leader in Runs and RBIs is relatively close to the other leaders (no one had, say, 200 Runs or RBIs), A-Rod’s 54 HRs and Reye’s otherworldly 78 SBs set a very high bar for 5 points. This creates odd situations where Eric Byrnes 50 SBs (tied for 4th in majors) is worth less in ESPN Player Points than his 103 Runs (outside the top 20) and Jimmy Rollins’ 30 HRs (tied for 20th) are worth less than his 94 RBIs (tied for 42nd).

Here is the assessment on a stat by stat basis:

Runs – Overcredits for all players. For above average performance, Issue #4 plays a role (the Best Available Option’s 67 Runs warrants 2.3 points). For below average performance, Issue #3 starts taking effect (less than 67 runs should warrant negative points). An additional issue throughout is that runs are so plentiful across players that the value of a run is less than other stats (A-Rod’s 143 runs warrant 4.95 points in our estimation vs. 8.29 for his 54 HRs)

Home Runs – Undercredits great performance like A-Rod and Fielder (Issue #1). Issue #5 plays a role in underestimating the value of everyone at 25+ Homers. Players between about 15-24 HRs are slightly inflated based on Issue #4. Anyone below the BAO average of 14 are overestimated based on Issue #3.

RBIs – Undercredits the great performances like A-Rod and Matt Holliday (Issue #1). Overcredits above average performance (Issue #4). Undercredits below average performance (Issue #3). Issue #4 affects more hitters than Issue #3 (which is limited to speedsters and some 2B/SS – examples are Reyes’s 57 RBIs and Pierre’s 41RBIs)

SBs – This is the category where Issues #1 and #5 play a huge role in underestimating SB value. We have Jose Reyes’ 78 SBs at a whopping 11.5 points – the most points awarded for any offensive category. Teammate David Wright’s 34 SBs earned him a respectable 4.8 points (equivalent to Holliday’s 36 HRs and Vlad’s 125 RBIs). This underestimation affects hitter values all the way down to about 10 SBs. Issue #3 plays a very minor role – greatest for 2B/SS as speed is most common in that category (Freddy Sanchez’s 0 SBs earned him a negative 1.19).

AVG – Issue #1 only affects the top 3 hitters as Magglio, Ichiro, and Matt Holliday’s averages warranted 6+ points in our ratings. Issue #2 plays a role for the rest of those with averages above .330. Issue #4 plays a role in overestimating the value of hitters lower than .330 but greater than BAO (e.g., Luis Gonzalez’s pedestrian .278 warrants 1.99 ESPN points where it should be worth zero). For low average hitters, Issue #3 plays a role in greatly overestimating their value as they should have negative value. Uggla’s aforementioned average of .245 gets .86 ESPN points compared to our -3.28 points.

Amazingly, though, the cumulative effect of these issues seems to have little bearing on the ranking of hitters. We agree with the top 10 OFs from ESPN Player Rater with slightly different ordering. The top 10 2B match down to the order. The differences play more of a role in total player rankings – below are some examples of players differently valued (Our Ranking, ESPN Ranking).

Eric Byrnes (25, 43)
Jorge Posada (58, 92)
Juan Pierre (78, 117)
Derek Jeter (86, 106)

It’s worth noting that almost every hitter is higher valued in our rankings vs. ESPN because ESPN overvalues pitchers out of the top 20 and this pushes down all the hitters.

So while we find faults in ESPN’s methodology, we can’t fault using ESPN Player Rater to understand hitter position rankings. It works surprisingly well for hitters given its simplistic approach – it’s possible that its flaws are a bigger issue as you move down the player rankings. That said, we would caution against using the combined hitter and pitcher rankings given the flaws we’ve seen with their valuing and ranking of pitchers.

1. Brandon Phillips
.288/107/30/94/32
Not since Soriano have we seen this power and speed combo from 2nd. For the price you probably paid for Phillips, this guy single-handedly won leagues or, at the least, kept owners right in the mix. I know in one of my leagues the owner who had Phillips easily finished five places above where he should have. Then again, he should have finished last, so it’s a small consolation. Imagine if the Indians hadn’t given up on him — Asdrubal who?

2. Chase Utley
.332/104/22/103/9
And he missed a month. Chances are you picked up someone who was able to add to the above stats. For instance, I picked up Iguchi when the Phillies traded for him, so I had .305/18/3/10/5 for 29 games. Respectable numbers to add to Utley’s final totals. For where you had to draft Utely, he didn’t disappoint. What I really like about Utely is his intensity. You never see him dog it up the first base line. If you’re thinking that doesn’t show up in the final stat line, you’re mistaken. Okay, praises sung…

3. Brian Roberts
.290/103/12/57/50
You’re looking at a career year in steals, a total aberration for runs, and a bit low on the home run front. Looking closer: how can a guy steal fifty bases, bat lead-off and barely crack 100 runs? Pretty tough luck there. I usually stay away from Roberts because he’s a total roll of the die. One year he steals like crazy, one year he cracks a bunch of homers, another year he’s a force in average, another year he breaks his arm in seventeen places. If you gambled on him giving you steals this year, you did well.

4. BJ Upton
.300/86/24/82/22
Another difference maker. Chances are you drafted (or picked off waivers) Upton at a extremely low price. Also, with his injury, you probably had someone else culling stats at his position while he was on your DL. So his position’s numbers should be even better. I don’t fully trust him for next year, but we’ll save that for a future blog.

5. Robinson Cano
.306/93/19/97/4
I have to admit. His year surprised me. I thought he might be lying in the dumpster by the All-Star Break because Yankee fans would be so disappointed with him. But Torre stuck with him through the first half swoon, and he turned it around. But the real question is, did you stick with him? I don’t think I would have, probably would have traded him for thirty cents on the dollar.

6. Placido Polanco
.341/105/9/67/7
Everyone know what being yawnstipated is? It’s when you have to yawn, but can’t. Basically, you’re constipated with your yawning. Polanco yawnstipates me. You want to yawn at his numbers, but he manages to do just enough so you can’t yawn. The .341 is the main reason for the yawnstipation. Usually a high average and not much else is a very good yawnstipater.

7. Dan Uggla
.245/113/31/88/2
How does a 2nd basemen that hits 31 homers end up so low on the list? Batting .245 will do it. This is the first guy on the list that was actually a negative in any category. I don’t like negatives in a category. That low of an average can be really difficult to correct with other hitters. Uggla’s other numbers are buoyant; his average is an anchor. Anchors stop fun.

8. Ian Kinsler
.263/96/20/61/23
I liked Kinsler in the beginning of the year. Know what? I still like him. He struggled mightily for about two months after a torrid start, then he was hurt for over a month. If you substituted in someone for when he was struggling and when he was on the DL, you had a tremendous two months from him. He was easily top 3 at 2nd base when he was playing good.

9. Jeff Kent
.302/78/20/79/1
Again, if you took him out when he was hurt or playing hurt, Kent had a decent enough year. I like his numbers in retrospect more than Uggla. (Don’t like negatives in a category.) You didn’t get anything more than you should expect from him at this stage in his career, but you didn’t get less from him either, which helps.

10. Aaron Hill
.291/87/17/78/4
And I like his numbers better than Uggla’s, as well. (Still don’t like negatives in a category. You heard that already? Yeah, you probably did.) Across the board, Hill gave you a little bit of everything. He didn’t win any leagues, but, what’s just as important, he didn’t lose any leagues either.

Some other guys that didn’t make the list, but I actually wouldn’t have minded on my team last year: Kelly Johnson, Freddy, Pedroia, Wigginton, the Kaz. Then for extended periods of times, Orlando Hudson, Weeks, DeRosa and Brendan Harris definitely helped teams. None of these guys hurt your team to the point you couldn’t capture a title. Going into the season last year, lots of experts were saying that 2nd base might be the weakest position ever. Turned out to be a lot of hot air. Not only was 2nd base not all that weak, but you found some very good value in later rounds.