Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball, the 1950s

April 09, 2009 By: Lou Poulas Category: Fantasy Baseball HOF, Lou Poulas, May's Daily Notes 22 Comments →

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame has spent an unhealthy amount of time identifying the best fantasy seasons, careers, All Stars, and Hall of Famers of the fantasy era. The Fantasy Era began in 1980, and thus many great players of the 1980’s fall just short of enshrinement since their careers commenced in 1979 or earlier. This, along with the fact it’s just plain fun, has led us down the path of looking back in time, decade by decade, for the best fantasy players in baseballs history. We’ll be following reverse chronological order with the 1950s now taking center stage.

Previous Decades: 1970s, 1960s.

Famous for its pitching splendor, the 1960’s brought runs scoring back down to levels not seen since the deadball era of the 1910’s. Many casual fans do not realize the trend actually began a decade earlier, in 1951, which ushered in a 20-year era that mostly belonged to the starting pitcher.

The image below charts the average runs scored per game in Major League Baseball from 1903 to present. Runs scored declined almost 30% between the high point in 1950 (4.85 r/g) and 1968 (3.42 r/g).

Runs/Game

With relief pitchers not yet stereotyped solely into late inning roles, and starting pitchers routinely going the distance, the fantasy game was nothing like we see today. The best batting stats of the decade seem rather typical:

AVG:   .365 – Mickey Mantle (1957)
RS:    132 – Mickey Mantle (1956)
HR:    52 – Mickey Mantle (1956)
RBI:   145 – Al Rosen (1953)
SB:    56 – Luis Aparacio (1959)

However, the effect of the era is apparent once we move to the pitching side of the equation:

W:     28 – Robin Roberts (1952)
ERA:   1.97 – Billy Pierce (1955)
WHIP:  0.95 – Warren Hacker (1952)
SO:    263 – Herb Score (1956)
SV:    27 – Ellis Kinder (1953)

Wins are up significantly and saves are down to the lowest levels we’ve come across. Not shown here are the incredible innings pitched totals as well. No pitcher since 1980 has reached 300 innings pitched, while the 1950s alone had seven.

(An interesting side note, though not germane to a discussion on the 1950s, is the fact 300 inning occurrences increased through 1969, before declining into non existence about a dozen years later.)

Finally, before getting to the players, below is our customary graph of the basic fantasy batting stats. As expected, batting averages declined throughout the1950s, starting off at around .265 and ending 10 points lower. Stolen bases increased significantly, starting at one stolen base ever 130 at bats, and ending at a stolen base every 92. Home runs were fairly constant, though occurring at a higher rate in the earliest part of the decade.

Steals/Homers

Keep in mind that this decade was the last in which every year featured the 154 game schedule. In 1961 baseball expanded to 162 games, more than a 5% increase, allowing season totals forever after too look a bit better than those that came before.

Top-10 Players of the 1950s

10) Eddie Mathews, 3B
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.1
Overall FBHOF Score: 71.7

Mathews smacked 25 home runs in his 1952 rookie year and 16 “fantasy worthy” seasons later ended his career well past the 500 HR plateau at 512. He reached 40 or more four times in the ‘50s and is currently ranked as the 3rd best third bagger of all time, behind Mike Schmidt and George Brett

His fantasy finest season came in ’59. Batting .306 / .390 / .593, he also added 118 R, 46 HR, and 114 RBI in his stat line, and finished the year as the 5th best batter in baseball. A cross decade star, Mathews has four 11+ FBHOF points seasons to his credit in the 1950s, and two 13 point seasons to start the 1960s.

9) Minnie Minoso, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.4
Overall FBHOF Score: 68.0

A very good major leaguer, Minoso was even better as a fantasy baseball player. The seven time all star had the same number 10+ point seasons in the decade and was a rare 5-tool star. I am reminded of a modern day Bobby Abreu at his peak, only with a longer period of success.

During his career Minoso scored 90+ runs nine times; batted over .300 eight times; stole 17 or more bases seven times; and hit 19+ home runs or drove in 90 or more runners five times. His best season came in 1954:.320 AVG, 119 R, 19 HR, 116 RBI, 18 SB, 13.4 Points.

8. Stan Musial, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.3
Overall FBHOF Score: 71.9

“Stan The Man” is sold short by when analyzing his tenure within the 1950’s only. His career actually spans three decades and a few of his great seasons came in the 1960’s. Musial was pure hitter, one of the best baseball has ever seen. Including batters from the 1800s, Musial is among the all time greats in many career statistics:

.331 AVG – 30th
.417 OBP – 23rd
.559 SLG – 21st
.976 OPS – 14th
1949 RS – 9th
1951 RBI – 6th
725 2B – 3rd
6134 TB – 2nd

Fantasy wise, Musial was incredibly consistent in the 1950s, recording five seasons between 12.8 and 13.9 points. His 5 year peak during the decade was .341 AVG, 116 R, 29 HR, 109 RBI.

7) Hank Aaron, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.5
Overall FBHOF Score: 98.8

You may recall Aaron was ranked as the 2nd best player of the 1960s as well, and now that we’ve completed the review of the 1950’s, his career stat line is complete. It’s pure gold. Aaron is the second best fantasy baseball player we’ve ever seen, and he currently owns the all time mark for total career points.

In a span of 11 years, the outfielder has an unheard of ten seasons of 15 or more FBHOF points. I would be surprised if any player, even going back through the 1920s, could duplicate this feat. Six of Aaron’s best seven seasons occurred in the 1960s, the one outlier being 1959: .355 AVG, 39 HR, 116 R, 123 RBI, and 8 SB.

Aaron became fantasy eligible in 1954. One year later he reached 11 FBHOF Points and only dipped below 10 points eighteen years later in 1972.

6) Ernie Banks, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.6
Overall FBHOF Score: 77.4

“Mr. Cub’s” three best seasons came while he manned shortstop, but for his career he played more games at first base (1534 vs. 1050) than short and thus is considered a corner infielder for our purposes. I fibbed a bit as well; in fact, he was eligible at shortstop over the course of his six best season, a consecutive year stretch from 1955 through 1960.

During this time he averaged 41 HR, 101 R, 116 RBI, 5 SB, and batted .294. He was also a top-5 batter four times.

5) Warren Spahn, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 74.7

The first pitcher on our top-10 list, Span was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1973, alongside Roberto Clemente, the only two voted in by the BBWA this year. Like Musial, Spahn’s career covered three decades but he Spahn at lease, was at his best in the 1950’s. His best season came in 1953: 23 W, 1.06 WHIP, 2.10 ERA, and 148 K in 266 IP. As with most of his peers, he didn’t maintain a high (by today’s standards) strikeout rate.

Interestingly, and perhaps unfortunately, Spahn also saved three games. In 1953, only four major league pitchers recorded 15 or more saves, and Spahn therefore gets an inordinate amount of credit for his three. This nuance will be typical with many of the pitchers of his era and earlier. No doubt, had fantasy baseball been invented in 1950, Saves would not have been a core scoring statistic. We’re stuck with it though, and Spahn’s 29 career saves make positively impact his overall score.

4) Mickey Mantle, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 90.8

Moving from 5th place into 4th marks the beginning of a new tier of 1950s greats. The 8th through 5th slots are differentiated by just 0.4 FBHOF points. The jump into 4th is a full 1.0 FHBOF points. Deservedly so – Mantle was a hitting machine, and as we saw in the introduction, owns the best single season results in the decade in 3 of the 5 offensive fantasy stats.

Mantle was still great heading into the early 1960’s, but few in the history of the sport match his 19.0 point season in 1956.

His peak 5-year average during the decade: .322 AVG, 121 R, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 15 SB. His scores by year:

1951- 3.8
1952 – 10.8
1953 – 9.1
1954 – 10.9
1955 – 12.1
1956 – 19.0
1957 – 15.6
1958 – 15.8
1959 – 11.1

3) Duke Snider, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.8
Overall FBHOF Score: 80.0

Snider typically falls short in his inevitable comparison to Mantle and Willie Mays. All three were of course New York centerfielders during the 1950’s and all three were no brainer Hall of Fame selections, but at least in terms of fantasy baseball, Snider can run with Mantle – during the 1950’s at least.

When lining their best years up side by side, in order of greatness as opposed to chronological, the similarities are striking:

Snider        Mantle
17.67          18.98
15.11           15.80
14.68          15.58
14.65          12.06
11.98          11.14
10.80         10.94
10.16          10.83
9.64            9.07
5.98            3.84
3.70

In one of the most underrated seasons of all time, Snider in 1954 batted .336 with 132 R, 42 HR, 126 RBI, and 16 SB. He was the best fantasy batter of the season, for the second consecutive year. Mantle and (mostly) Mays would take honors in five of the next six seasons.

2) Robin Roberts, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.7
Overall FBHOF Score: 92.0

Really. In his New Historical Abstract, Bill James ranks Roberts as the 16th best pitcher of all time. He’s a Hall of Famer and a six time 20 game winner. He led his league 27 times in various important statistical categories. Yes, to this day, he gets little credit as one of the all time great pitchers.

Perhaps it was the era in which he pitched. Following Roberts good fortunes in the 1950’s came the greatest pitching era of all time. With this of course, came some of the greatest pitching names of all time – Koufax and Gibson plus significant single season performances of historical importance – Denny McLain’s 31 wins in 1968 and superb seasons out of Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale. Roberts never struck out 200 batters, never had an ERA under 2.50, nor a WHIP below 1.00.

What he did do was finish 6 of the 10 seasons in the Top-3, and four consecutive as the best overall pitcher in the game. From 1952-1955 he averaged 24 W, 1.07 WHIP, 2.90 ERA, 172 K’s, and 4 saves per season.

He’s on his own plane when looking at 4-year peak scores among starting pitchers of the 1950s:

17.4 – Robin Roberts
14.1 – Warren Spahn
11.8 – Early Wynn
11.7 – Billy Pierce
11.2 – Mike Garcia

1) Willie Mays, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 17.5
Overall FBHOF Score: 102.3

Through the 1950’s, Willie Mays is the greatest fantasy player of all time. His stats speak for themselves. Please pay particular attention to the sheer number of double digit FBHOF Point seasons, identified in the “score” column.

Willie Mays

Can Previous Year Pitch Counts Help Identify Risky Pitchers?

January 28, 2009 By: Rudy Gamble Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Rudy Gamble 41 Comments →

One of the keys to a successful fantasy season is not drafting a pitcher who misses an extensive amount of time or performs much worse than the previous year.  Anyone who drafted Chris Carpenter or Dontrelle Willis in 2007 or Rich Hill or Aaron Harang in 2008 can attest to this.

There have been several theories posed in traditional publications (SI.com – Tom Verducci) and in the fantasy baseball blogosphere (FantasyPhenoms, Beyond the Box Score, RotoAuthority) that claim a correlation between a pitcher’s innings/pitches from the previous year and their performance the next year.

While these articles mentioned several positive examples, none of them really tested their theories to see if they are true predictors of either injury or decreased performance.  We decided to put them to the test along with several theories we’ve been kicking around:

  • High Pitch Volume – Does a high volume of pitches have a carryover effect the next year?  (posed by FantasyPhenoms and RotoAuthority)
  • Spike In Pitch Volume - What is the effect of a significant increase in pitch volume vs. previous year?  (posed by Tom Verducci)
  • New To The Workload - Is a pitcher who first reaches the 2,700 pitch threshold more likely to fall back the next year vs. a pitcher used to the workload?
  • High % of Breaking Pitches – Is a pitcher who throws breaking balls more susceptible to fall back vs. a fastball/changeup pitcher?

We also added a Common Sense test which predicted that weaker pitchers from year prior (4.00+ FIP) would be more likely to get hurt, moved to the bullpen, or demoted to the minors than stronger pitchers.  This ‘common sense’ test also serves as a proxy for a typical fantasy baseball drafter’s judgment as they would likely have more faith in pitchers who were successful in the previous year.

For the test, we focused on the past three years (2006-2008) and on pitchers who threw at least 2,700 pitches (~ 155-160 IP) in that year.  Pitchers who retired/semi-retired the next season for reasons other than injury were removed.  This left a total of 247 pitcher seasons.  We defined ‘miss significant time’ as someone who threw 2,000 or less pitches (~ 20 GS) in MLB the next year and ‘measurable decrease in performance’ as a 0.50 or more increase in their FIP (this is an ERA variation that stands for Fielding Independent Pitching based on only things within a pitcher’s control – K, BB, HR – and is more stable year-to-year than ERA).  If a pitcher threw less than 2,000 pitches the next year, we ignored their FIP so as not to add insult to injury (ha!).

It’s worth noting that throwing 2,000 or less pitches in MLB does not necessarily mean someone was injured – it could also mean their performance decreased to a level that was no longer MLB-worthy and they were demoted.  Since these amount to the same thing for a fantasy team owner (bupkus), we did not differentiate.  We also did not credit for pitches thrown in the minor leagues prior to arriving in the MLB or pitches thrown in the postseason.  This is partly out of convenience (our data source FanGraphs does not include this in their ‘Leaders’ section) and partly out of intent (a pitch in the minor leagues is not as stressful as a pitch in the major leagues).

In total, 59 (24%) of the 247 qualified pitcher seasons were followed up by seasons of less than 2,000 pitches and 53 (21%) were followed up with FIP increases above 0.50.  That means that about 45% of starting pitchers either pitched significantly less or had a measurable decrease in performance in the following year.  Ouch!

Below are the test results:

Test Group (2006-2008, 2700+ Pitches)
Pitching Performance vs. Previous Year
Test # Previous Year Pitch Volume Total <2000 Pitches FIP Up 0.50+ Combined Index
# % # % # %
1

30+% Sliders/Curve Balls

54 18 33% 16 30% 34 63% 137
2 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls 80 27 34% 20 25% 47 59% 128
3 +700 Pitches vs. Previous Year 56 19 34% 14 25% 33 59% 128
4 1st Year at 2700+ Pitches 49 17 35% 9 18% 26 53% 115
5 FIP 4.00+ 153 44 29% 25 16% 69 45% 98
6 6500+ Pitches Previous 2 Years Combined 76 10 13% 21 28% 31 41% 89
7 9000+ Pitches Previous 3 Years Combined (2007-2008 only) 73 15 21% 14 19% 29 40% 86
8 3500+ Pitches 23 0 0% 9 39% 9 39% 85
9 3400+ Pitches 43 2 5% 14 33% 16 37% 81

The best theory proved to be the High % of Breaking Pitches Theory as both the 27+% and 30+% thresholds finished in the top two for index (137 and 128 respectively – the 137 means that a pitcher who threw 30+% Sliders/Curve Balls in the previous year is 37% more likely than the average pitcher to fall below 2,000 pitchers or see their FIP increase 0.50+.  The Spike in Pitch Volume Theory (go Verducci!) and New to the Workload Theory also performed above average.

The ‘Common Sense’ test (FIP 4.00+) finished  at about a 100 index meaning picking a random pitcher would’ve been as effective as choosing one with this criteria.  This average performance may be misleading since it did a better than average job at predicting significant pitch decreases (29% to 24%) and its below average performance at predicting FIP increases may be because some of the FIPs were so high to begin with in the first place.

The High Pitch Volume Theory proved to be a relative failure.  We tried four variations – one-year (3400+ and 3500+), two year (6500+) and three year (9000+) and all of them finished at a below average rate.  Both the 3400+ and 3500+ theories did a good job at predicting 0.50+ FIP increases but that is tempered by the fact that they had a higher percentage of pitchers throw enough innings to qualify.  For instance, if you were to back out the 19 of 56 pitchers who fell below 2000 pitches in the Spike In Pitch Volume Theory, you would have 38% (14 of 37) that had 0.50+ FIP increases.  So there may be a slight correlation that a heavily used pitcher does not perform as effectively the next year but they will perform.

I’d theorize the failure of High Pitch Volume Theory in predicting significant pitch declines is because totaling high pitch counts in a year is more of a skill than an abuse.  It is easier for someone who has run a marathon in the past to run another one versus someone who has not.  While this group is not immune to missing time, they have built the stamina to at least pitch close to a full season (2700+ pitches).  Below are the 16 members of 2007’s “3400+ Pitch Club” .

Name Pitch Count
2007 2008
Carlos Zambrano 3692 3018
Dan Haren 3635 3339
Jake Peavy 3610 2860
Scott Kazmir 3609 2749
Aaron Harang 3591 3055
CC Sabathia 3581 3814
Gil Meche 3579 3555
Daniel Cabrera 3565 3020
Dontrelle Willis 3491 523
Jeff Francis 3485 2385
Joe Blanton 3481 3250
Dice-K 3480 2904
Javier Vazquez 3465 3376
Brandon Webb 3437 3358
Bronson Arroyo 3432 3436
Barry Zito 3411 3206
Average 3534 2991

The collective average went from 3,534 pitches to 2,991 pitches which, though a decline,  still represents about 29 starts.  8 of the 16 pitchers on this list finished in the top 30 in 2008 total pitches.  The below 100 index in the test and the above chart indicate that a pitcher with 3400+ pitches in the previous year is a sign of durability not vulnerability (note: given the high injury rate with pitchers, though, it’s not that strong of a sign).

We then tested several combinations of the three above-average performing theories and threw a last bone to the High Pitch Volume theory (which tanked even after adding the High % of Breaking Balls requirement).

Test Group (2006-2008, 2700+ Pitches)
Pitching Performance vs. Previous Year
Test # Previous Year Pitch Volume Total <2000 Pitches FIP Up 0.50+ Combined Index
# % # % # %
1

30+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitches vs. Year Prior

10 6 60% 2 20% 8 80% 177
2 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitches vs. Year Prior + First Time Over 2700+ Pitches 9 6 67% 1 11% 7 78% 172
3 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 1st Year at 2700+ Pitches 15 8 53% 2 13% 10 67% 147
4 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitchers Vs.Previous Year 20 9 45% 4 20% 13 65% 143
5 30+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike 100 31 31% 28 28% 59 59% 130
6 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike 116 37 32% 30 26% 67 58% 128
7 700+ Pitches vs Previous Year and 1st Year Over 2700 Pitches 32 13 41% 5 16% 18 56% 124
8 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 3400+ Pitches 13 0 0% 4 31% 4 31% 68

While the top two combo theories are very good predictors, they are also very rare – about 1 in 25 pitching seasons.  The most impressive predictor of the bunch is test #6 – 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike.   Why?  Because that 128 index applied to a huge sample – nearly half of the pitcher seasons in the study.  The impact is best seen by comparing this group against its mirror image – pitchers who threw < 27% Sliders/Curve Balls AND had < 700+ Pitch Spike.

Comparison of Pitching Seasons After A 2700+ Pitch Season
Sample < 2000 Pitches Next Year Index FIP Up 0.50+ Next Year Index <2000 Pitches Next Year OR FIP Up 0.50+ Next Year Index
All Pitchers 247 59 (24%) 100 53 (21%) 100 112 (45%) 100
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike 116 37 (32%) 134 30 (26%) 121 67 (58%) 128
<27% Sliders/Curve Balls AND < 700+ Pitch Spike 131 22 (17%) 70 23 (18%) 82 45 (34%) 76

So a pitcher that qualifies in at least one of these categories is 28% more likely to throw less than 2000 pitches in the next year or to see an FIP increase of 0.50+ than the average pitcher.  Just as important, one that qualifies for neither category is 24% less likely than the average pitcher to meet these respective fates.

That’s it for now but we’ll be revisiting this topic in the near future.  In the next post, we’ll go over the top 20 starting pitchers risks for 2008, perhaps uncovering a couple pitchers that you’ll be surprised to see…