Fantasy Baseball Advice

With ace-of-the-staff years dating back to 2002, Roy Halladay was the franchise.  Well, the Blue Jays front office gave the Blue Jays fans the kanye shrug.  While most pitchers go from good to great or great to mindblowing in the NL, Halladay will have to deal with Citizens Bank.  He doesn’t have much history to go on there, but it obviously favors hitters more than Rogers Centre, where Halladay had a 3.23 career ERA.  I think we can nullify that park disadvantage with all the weaker lineups and the pitchers he’ll get to face.  In his career interleague play, he has a 17-8 record, 3.02 ERA. 1.14 WHIP and 165 Ks in 220 and a third innings.  Sounds like a solid projection for Halladay’s 2010, just add twenty more Ks.  Anyway, here’s some more deals that went down yesterday and what they mean for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Cliff Lee – Heads to the Mariners.  If there’s one place a pitcher shouldn’t mind going, it’s Safeco.  (Safeco, Petco, Metco… Throw out the humidor and just rename the park Coorsco.)  Lee benefited from his move to the NL (though his ERA says different), but it wasn’t like he was languishing in the AL prior to the trade.  With the Indians last year through July, his ERA was 3.14.  His K-rate in the NL last year bumped up his overall strikeouts, so we shouldn’t expect more than a 7 K/9.  Still good for a mid-3 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 160 Ks with the Mariners.

John Lackey – Heads to Bahston.  Now Boston reporters can misspell his name Larkey and it would be pronounced the same way.  If only his first name were Nomar, then it would sound like no malarkey.  Larkey will be immediately overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  He hasn’t been able to get over 200 innings since 2007 and his K-rate has been dropping for a few years now.  For those out there that say he’ll now get more wins, the Angels weren’t exactly a 50 win team and he’s had only 12 and 11 wins the last two years, respectively.  In 2010, I’d put him down for a high-3 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 130 Ks in 165 innings.

Michael Taylor – When I was deciding who would get a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post, I looked at Michael Taylor.  He fell short because I couldn’t figure out what value he was going to have on the Phillies.  There was just no room for him in the outfield.  No longer a problem.  Taylor heads to the Jays.  Lind slots into the DH spot and Taylor goes into left.  Or someone can just make Vernon Wells glue.  Taylor will be 24 in a few days  — go to Benihana for your birthday, they give you free pineapple chunks — and he has done all he needs to do in the minors.  Last year split between Double and Triple A, Taylor went 20/21 with a .320/.395/.549 line.  It’s not far fetched to think he could be an early front runner for the 2011 AL ROY award and a 15/15 candidate.  Assuming Taylor’s penciled into the the lead-off spot, I’d give him a projection of 85/12/60/.280/15 with upside from there.  Definitely worth owning in leagues 12 team and deeper.

Phillippe Aumont – Stephen went over the Phillippe Aumont fantasy.  He goes to Philly.  Or, more appropriately, Philli.  (For those keeping score at home, Phils get Halladay, the M’s top pitching prospect, Aumont, and Tyson Gillies — more on him in a second.  M’s get Lee.  Jays get D’Arnaud, Taylor and the Phils top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek and/or Happ.  As of press time, this wasn’t all entirely clear.)  Aumont will be given the opportunity to make the club as bullpen help, but probably won’t be up until midseason at the earliest.  He has no clear cut path to the Phils closer job yet.  But wait until Lidge pitches.

Tyson Gillies – Elias Sports Bureau said there’s more L’s in this trade than any other trade in the history of baseball.  Actually, they didn’t say that; they’re in the Antilles on vacation.  As mentioned above, Gillies heads to the Phils.  Gillies fantasy prospects were broken down already.  He’s at least a year away unless the Phils are hit by major injuries.

Travis D’Arnaud – Sent from the Phils.  He’s still at least a year or two away, but he could be the catcher of the future for the Jays.  The catcher of the present is…

John Buck – Evidently, they’re replacing a real cowboy (Doc Halladay) with one of the midnight variety.  Buck has some cheap pop and nothing else for AL-Only leagues.

Mike Cameron – Signs with Boston and signals that the Sawx are done waiting for Bay or Holliday.  Then again, they have four competent outfielders when most clubs don’t have two so they could still stuff their cheeks with a few more acorns.  Cameron’s presence will be no present for Jeremy Hermida.  See what I did there?  Hermida’s value takes the biggest hit.  He could end up doing nothing but platooning against tough righties.  That’s assuming J.D. Drew stays healthy and, as they said in China in the 1400s, assuming makes an ass out of you and Ming. Cameron hasn’t stolen 20+ bases since ‘06 and at 37 he probably won’t get there again.  He’ll likely bat at the bottom of the order, which will help with RBIs.  He’s a decent 5th outfielder in 12 team leagues for teams that need assurance over upside.

Hideki Matsui – To the Angels.  In his youth, Hideki came to be called Godzilla because of monstrous homers and acne.  Well, he’s still got the acne.  I’d avoid him in fantasy as much for his yawnstipating numbers as for his Utility-only eligibility.

Jason Kendall – Royals get him for two years.  Much like a Ken doll, Kendall has no bat.

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

It has been quite a week in baseball. All this Jeter coverage is getting old, especially when that is all EPSN talks about, which coincidentally means all media outlets will too. While somehow this passed me by – Madison Bumgarner debuted in the majors last night throwing 5 1/3 innings of 2 run ball while having a 4:1 K/BB ratio (all in 76 pitches) against the offensively challenged Padres. Brandon Medders eventually blew the lead in the seventh to spoil the win for Mad-Bum. I wrote about him back in June; guess I was right about the late season call-up after pitching brilliantly all season. However, as the Giants also called up Buster Posey earlier this September, they might be playing more for now then they are for years down the road. On a positive note, Bumgarner has only pitched 136 2/3 innings this year (including last night), which is actually 4 2/3 innings less then last year (maybe they were planning this all along? This is one of those things that make you go “hmm”). Also, this year, Bumgarner has seen his K/9 go from 10.4 in 2008 to 6.3 in 2009 between A+ and AA and he walks one more batter per nine (1.3 to 2.3 BB/9). Just so you know.  Oh, and Desmond Jennings recently got compared to Carl Crawford while the world went C-to-the-RAZY over his 7 for 7 day. Though I beat them to the punch, by about oh, three months.

On a separate note, being the uber nerd that I am, I decided to look at how many players from each team I have talked about and which teams I have missed (CLE, MIL, NYM, TOR, COL, WAS, LAD, SEA, LAA, DET if your curious). I did this first to see if I only talked about the top teams according to farm ranking, in short, yes, yes I did. In all fairness, some of the lower ranked teams had already called their top players up, or they don’t have an immediate impact player to talk about (for example, name a Washington National player not named Strasburg that isn’t already in the majors you would like to know more about). With this said, I am going to try and finish the year talking about some of the other teams (that I failed to mention so far) prospects that were on their roster during this past winter. If there are any objections, speak now. I would love to hear recommendations from those teams, please shoot them my way via comments (ps, I am writing about CLE and SEA today).

Lastly, if you are interested in seeing Marc Hulet’s (a respected prospect and minor league writer) “players to watch” in the Arizona Fall League this year (by team(s)), this is an ideal link for you; or you could just go to MiLB’s page here. Oh, and for your enjoyment, I just found a minor league split-stats page for, well, minor leaguers. It’s pretty nifty if you ask me. Ok, coffee has been pounded and on with the (relatively) unknown.

Phillippe Aumont | RP (SP) | Seattle Mariners | DOB: 1/7/89 | 6-7 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left/Right | SEA #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Oddly, Phillippe does not have any Cube ratings, see for yourself.

Maybe the Cube doesn’t like Canadians; those ethnocentric infidels. No, but seriously, Aumont is Canadian. Why you ask is this important? First, when hockey is your dominate sport nine months of the year, baseball tends to be overlooked (especially in Quebec – his home province – or more specifically Hull, Quebec, Canada). This directly lead to his relative lack of baseball experience and development as there was no high school baseball team. Secondly, he had to travel great distances for scouts to even see him throw a ball by playing on traveling teams. Somewhere along his playing after traveling long hours a few Mariner scouts said, “WOW!” and he was drafted in the first round with the eleventh pick in 2007.

Yes, the scouts said more than that. Like how he has a 90 to 95 mph fastball that has heavy sink and slight horizontal movement; a curve with a tight bite; and height that is ideal for a pitcher. Throwing from a three-quarters arm slot, his ball has a lot of deception. However, he hasn’t always stayed on top of the ball resulting in poor command (career 3.5 BB/9). Also, some have noted that his straight and stiff left leg during his landing will cause arm and upper body stress. Time proved them right, last year he was shut down for some elbow soreness which eventually lead him to becoming a closer in 2008, and consequently this year too. Actually, he is being primed to be a closer because he is having difficulty developing a third pitch. One site I read compared his potential (right after the draft) to players like this:

Low potential – Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis
Mid potential – Derek Lowe, Brad Penny
High potential – Kevin Brown, Chris Carpenter

Well before I say more, here are his numbers:

08 (A) 8.1 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 8/15 GS/G | 55 2/3 IP | .6 HR/9 | 2.75 ERA | 1.168 WHIP | 2 SV | .282 BABIP | 3.58 FIP
09 (totals) 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 0/44 GS/G) 51 IP | .7 HR/9 | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 16 SV
09 (A+) 9.4 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 29 G | 33 1/3 IP | .8 HR/9 | 3.24 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 12 SV | .263 BABIP | 3.53 FIP
09 (AA) 12.2 K/9 | 5.6 BB/9 | 15 G | 17 2/3 IP | .5 HR/9 | 5.09 ERA | 1.81 WHIP | 4 SV | .436 BABIP | 3.6 FIP

For his career, he averages 9.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, albeit in only 106 2/3 innings. To make a conclusion right now would be difficult from such a small sample size. The control still seems to be a huge issue, but the talent is definitely there. Reminds me of Carlos Marmol, almost identical actually (Marmol’s career averages: 9.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 473 2/3 IP); although Marmol was a starter until the majors. At only 20, Aumont has plenty of time to develop into a productive, or adequate, major league pitcher whether or not the control comes. However, he may be deemed a bust because he was drafted to be a starting pitcher who could eat innings and be a mainstay in the top of the rotation. The way the Mariners are treating him would be to groom him as a late innings bullpen guy. Not a great way to spend a top draft pick. Although, if, or when, he makes the majors that view may be different as many draft picks (including top picks) never produce at the major league level.

With all that said, I would optimistically say he would be a late season call up in 2010, eventually battling for a roster spot in 2011 and getting called up midway through the summer. My pessimism ventures to say he won’t have a legit roster battle until 2012. A good comparison if he stays a reliever would be Marmol. I am sure there are other comparisons, but he would be the biggest name I can think of that everyone would recognize.

Carlos Santana | C | Cleveland Indians | DOB: 4/8/86 | 5-11 | 188 lbs | Bats/Throws: Switch/Right | CLE #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (83) | Speed (30) | Contact (65) | Patiences (94)

Leaving all musician jokes, puns, and terribleness behind, Santana is often compared directly to Victor Martinez and one can assume this is why they were willing to part with their aging veteran. Why so much praise and hidden hype surrounding him? First off, he is a relatively young catcher that can rake. “Young” here is meaning more than his 23 years of age would suggest. What I mean is he has only been catching since 2007. Before that he played third base and the outfield for the Dodgers. Sometime in 2006, the head-trust of the Dodgers decided to make a similar move that resulted in Russell Martin becoming a catcher. Consequently, Santana has only been catching for three years – so his hype is bumped up because he hasn’t taken the same physical tole as other catchers his age (like using the Latin age trick, but in a positive way; and it’s legit because he is from the Dominican Republic). The Dodgers, in midst of a playoff run (more specifically a wild-card race) in 2008, traded Carlos Santana to Cleveland in return for Casey Blake sans actually paying him (Blake) because Cleveland picked up his tab. This was a large determining factor for Cleveland to acquire Santana and one that the baseball world universally says will cripple the Dodgers catching position for years to come.

Prior to the 2009 season starting, only Matt Wieters ranked higher than Santana overall for catchers. Depending on ones’ value of defense and offense at the catching position, Buster Posey can be thrown into the mix (if you value defense more from your catcher than Posey may be ranked higher than Santana). Santana’s defense is definitely a comical event on most days. He struggled with 20 passed balls in 67 games in 2008 and countless errors. Even this year his defense only improved marginally (in numbers). He struggles going glove side down and away while also having difficulties blocking balls in the dirt. His accuracy throwing out runners is also slowly become more proficient. However, with a rocket of an arm, amazing plate discipline, 20 to 25 homer power, good average, and smart base running he is still an amazing prospect. To save time and several added years of stats, I am only going to show his stats since changing positions to catcher:

07 (A) .223/.318/.370 | 292 AB | 7/.147 HR/ISO | 15.4 K% | 12 BB% | 40:45 BB:K
08 (totals) .326/.431/.568 | 463 AB | 21 HR | 18.3 K% | 19.2 BB% | 89:85 BB:K
08 (A+ LAD) .323/.431/.563 | 350 AB | 14/.240 HR/ISO | 16.9 K% | 16.5 BB% | 69:59 BB:K
08 (A+ CLE) .352/.452/ .590 | 150 AB | 6/.238 HR/ISO | 22.9 K% | 16 BB% | 20:24 BB:K
08 (AA CLE) – had only 8 AB while suffering a minor groin strain
09 (AA) .290/.413/.530 | 428 AB | 23/.241 HR/ISO | 19.4 K% | 17.4 BB% | 90:83 BB:K
His splits against lefties/righties, RISP splits are as follows:
LH – .331/.452/.614 | RH – .269/.391/.487 | RISP .273/.451/.485

After struggling in his first year as a catcher, he started to rake in 2008 earning him the Carolina League MVP, and this year he was the Eastern League MVP. As the 2009 campaign progressed, he actually got increasingly better. Stellar walk rates offset the unattractive strikeout rate, good average, and… Well, I could keep raving about his numbers; I feel like a broken record. I definitely think a Victor Martinez clone would be appropriate (except for the height gap). He may get an extended look this spring and a mid-season call-up if he can handle AAA pitching – this is assuming his defense improves noticeably. My bold prediction is he makes it up in July 2010. While hiding away in Cleveland’s farm system might actually be a blessing in disguise for the fantasy world, this hiding may only last until ESPN jumps on others’ (I am looking at you Brad Evans) bandwagons and hype machines. Until then, for you deep keeper leagues hopefully the opportunity isn’t too late. For everyone else, get those waivers ready.