Fantasy Baseball Advice

If I were an emoticon, I would be a sad face. Maybe Tulowitzki shouldn’t have been jogging in socks and flip-flops after all. The only way he wouldn’t get on track this year is if he were injured. What does Tulo do? Gets injured. Badly, as it turns out. Tulowitzki is out until the All-Star break and that’s being optimistic. As Seinfeld might say, “What is the deal with all of these quad injuries?” In one year leagues, if you have no room on your DL, I’d say drop him. There’s not much positive to be had from these. I picked up Bobby Crosby in one deep league and Barmes in another. Why do I suddenly feel like I want to roller skate down a spiral staircase while carrying eighty pounds of deer meat? Some guys I’d look at to replace Tulowitzki (of course it depends on the league and needs): Felipe Lopez, Erick Aybar, Keppinger, Ronny Cedeno… I just thought of something. How about someone “take out” (those real quotes would be air quotes if we were, ya know, speaking) Grudzielanek? Then we can get Callaspo in there. Oh my God, I’m hoping for Callaspo to replace Tulo. The loss of Tulowitzki has made me delirious. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Chad Cordero - I’ve been saying for three weeks now Rauch gets more saves than Cordero. Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Cordero doesn’t get one more save this year. I’d drop him too, if you have no room.

Phil Hughes - Out until July, you probably don’t have him anyway, except in AL-Only leagues.

BJ Upton - Injury bug’s sure going around. He hurt himself on a swing. He says he’ll be all right. I say expect him to miss ten days, not go on your DL and be a nuisance.

Zach Greinke - Okay, onto something positive. He K’d nine Rangers. I think Carlos Silva could K seven Rangers, so it is what it is. But Greinke looks phenomenal this year. He’s always been a control pitcher with three solid pitches to strikeout opposing hitters. It’s just when he starts acting like Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is when we have to worry. (BTW, I like how the stripper/cokehead comes home with JoJo, a guy who wears a bling gun belt, and tells Joey that he’s a bit too messed up for her. That’s like getting blown off by… Well, a stripper/cokehead. BTW II, I would’ve put spoiler alert, but I don’t think anyone watches this shizz anyway. But I digress.) To think, Meche is better than Greinke. Karabell reminds me of the little kid who lives on my street. They mean well, yet I still wish them harm.

Travis Hafner - Okay, Pronk’s in a funk, but to drop him to sixth against a righty? So Dellucci could bat third? Listen, I’m as big a fan of fourth outfielders as the next guy, but Dellucci? I’m going to move on before I have aneurysm.

Jack Cust - Went 4-for-4 and deep. I really hope this is the start of big things because Rudy’s got him on his Razzball team. Cust kayin’.

Alexis Rios - Home run, steal, and the move to the leadoff spot doesn’t bother me that much. Where you thought you were getting RBIs, you’re now getting a few more runs. You won’t take 120/32/80/.300/25?

AJ Burnett - Burnett has been giving Rudy headaches lately. (Rudy doesn’t mind drafting AL pitchers; buy him a beer sometime and ask him about it. Or search the site. Whatever.) Burnett was wild, but unhittable last night against the Red Sox.

Hiroki Kuroda - Good start, but he seems completely unpredictable.

Paul Byrd - 1.71 ERA in last four starts. I guess that’s good if you had him for the last four starts. I wouldn’t want him for his next four.

Rafael Betancourt - Ichiro Suzuki (cause I use last names) scored on a fielding error by Blake (who was batting second, I’m assuming Wedge is trying to get fired). If you thought Kobayashi would be next line, he gave up the go ahead home run to The Big Sexy in the tenth.

JJ Putz - I think he threw one strike the entire inning and that was a hanging splitter to The Big FraGu. Maybe he’s hiding some lingering soreness from his injury? Just speculating.

Kerry Wood - I’m by no means a Wood apologist, but HBP, Soriano misplays a ball, infield single, walk, Braun hits a triple, it wasn’t really Wood’s fault. Just bad circumstances.

Eric Gagne - Walk, strikeout, then a bullet double play. Just good circumstances.

Carlos Marmol - I’m pretty sure he would’ve just struckout the side in his third inning of work. BTW, Marmol has 19 innings of work through May 1st. This will probably kill Marmol for next year, but Piniella doesn’t seem to care.

Brian Shouse - Second win this season by Shouse where he only needed one pitch. Get on board!

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 New York Yankees preview.)

The 2008 Yankees greatly resemble the team from the second half of 2007—a team which had a better winning percentage post all-star break than that of 1998—with the exception of a couple additions to the bullpen and a new manager.

The Yankees will likely compete with the Tigers for the best offense in the American League, but their starting pitching is heavily dependent on young pitchers that have a lot of expectations on their shoulders.  They have no proven ace yet, but many think Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain could eventually fill this roll.  However, Joba will be starting the season in the bullpen, which is both a testament to his excellence out of the pen and the uncertainties the Yankees have in that area.

If they stay healthy, and everyone on the Yankees, especially the young talent, plays up to their full potential, the Yankees could be the team to beat, but that’s assuming a lot works out, and without considering the growing pains they’re likely to experience, especially with Joe Girardi in his first year as Yankees’ manager.

For the Fantasy Buffs:

Likely Opening Day Line-Up:

1. Johnny Damon, LF:  Much better in left than center or DH.  Solid lead off guy, when he’s healthy.  Good speed.  Doesn’t hit much for power.

2. Derek Jeter, SS:  Clutch athlete, but not likely to do a whole lot for your fantasy team outside of hits.   Doesn’t hit for power.  Smart baserunner.  Declining fielder.

3. Bobby Abreu, RF:  Underrated, slow start last year due to injury.  Will get you 100 RBI, with some power.  Strong arm, but not the best outfielder.  Not a bad addition to your line-up.

4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B:  MUST HAVE.  Lead the league in Home Runs and RBI last year, and while he might not equal the numbers, he’s likely a lock to hit at least 40 HR and 100 RBI.  Underrated fielder.  Stays healthy.  Should go #1 or 2 for non-pitchers in your draft.

5. Jorge Posada, C:  Coming off of career year.  Unlikely to repeat his .330, 20 HR season, but he’ll give you some solid hits and good defense behind the plate.  Switch hitter.  36 years old.  Mauer is likely a better fantasy pick for catcher, but Jorge is invaluable for the Yankees.

6. Jason Giambi, DH:  Missed much time last year with a foot injury.  Better player the more he plays.  Not the Giambi of Oakland As.

7. Shelley Duncan 1B:  Sleeper pick.  Wasn’t supposed to hit as well on Major League level as he has and he has shown a good eye.  Will likely be in a 1B platoon, still learning the position.

8. Robinson Canò, 2B:  One of the best 2B in the league.  Hits for average and power.  Good fielder that can look sloppy at times.  Slow on the basepath and doesn’t make good baseruning decisions.

9. Melky Cabrera, CF:  Solid CF. Doesn’t hit for power, but a good hitter for the nine spot.  Doesn’t hit for average, but can bunt and sac RBI.  Great arm but takes bad routes to the ball on occasion.  Switch hitter.

Rotation:

Chien Ming Wang:  Will find ways to wind games, sinker ball pitcher, but high ERA and WHIP.  Not a good addition for a fantasy team, though he is working on improving his strikeout totals.

Andy Pettitte:  Solid left hander.  If he’s healthy, he’s an excellent, dependable addition, but he’s been known to have elbow issues.  Press is likely to attempt to make HGH issue a distraction.

Mike Mussina:  Coming off a bad year and horrible August.  Can’t make any mistakes or gets hammered.  Probably the weakest link in the Yankees’ rotation.

Phil Hughes:  Prized ‘rookie’, who’s not technically a rookie any more.  Excellent make-up, and projected to put up big numbers.  However, he’s young and untested over the full course of the season.  Under innings cap and potential injury concern.

Ian Kennedy:  Sleeper Pick.  Of the Yankees’ “big three” he is supposed to be the most polished.  Location pitcher.  Untested.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera:  One of the game’s best closers.  Elite.  Usually has a poor April, but will be an excellent strikeout pitcher.

Kyle Farnsworth:  Inconsistent.  Overpowering fastball, but poor location.

LaTroy Hawkins:  New addition.  Low risk, high-reward type signing.

Joba Chamberlain:  Had a 0.38 ERA last year out of the bullpen, giving up one home run to Mike Lowell.  Great for strikeout totals.  Loses effectiveness in second inning of work.

Bench:

Wilson Betemit:  Can play all infield positions, but a weak hitter.  Has some power from the left, but none from the right.

Hideki Matsui:  Left fielder, coming off of a bad knee injury.  Might start season on the DL.  Okay fielder, good hitting addition if he gets regular playing time.

Jose Molina:  Excellent back up catcher.  Great defensively and good enough with the bat.  Doesn’t hit for a ton of power but will get doubles.  Too slow for triples.

Morgan Ensberg:  Sleeper pick.  Had All Star numbers before injuring his shoulder.  If he fully recovers, he could be an excellent addition.

Rebecca

If readers are interested, then you can find Rebecca’s blog at Purist Bleeds Pinstripes.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180

Can the Angels land Johan Santana? How about the Yankees? Yes and yes. Does either team really need him? No and yes. Let’s explore:

The Angels are reportedly willing to deal a top pitching prospect, Nick Adenhart and Reggie Willits but somewhat reluctant to deal their uber-prospect SS/3B Brandon Wood, according to the LA Times. If this is true, the Angels are one mad team. And not mad as in angry, mad is in Carol Channing-bonkers. They have six big league-ready pitchers, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jon Garland, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana. Maybe they should try and get some offense. Cause, guess what, Torii Hunter really isn’t going to solidify their offense. He’s a .275/100/25/90 type hitter. Why they even signed Hunter is beyond me. (Thanks to Trent for pointing out that he was signed, not traded for. My bad.) Don’t the Angels already have a center fielder that is known for his offense? Not to mention, Willits, who they still have as of right now, is a natural center fielder. Hey, Angels’ management, how about you secure some offense?

The Yankees are also working on a deal for Santana, according to many reports, one being Newsday. This deal makes perfect sense. The Yanks desperately could use pitching. Unfortunately for the Yanks, they need to deal some pitching to get Santana, possibly Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain. Obviously, they don’t want to deal Hughes or Chamberlain because you’re basically robbing Peter to pay Paul in this scenario. As Buster Olney pointed out, Santana has the best ERA in Yankee Stadium of any pitcher with a minimum of three starts there at 1.17. Of course, that was against the Yanks. Lordy, what Johan would do against the likes of the Orioles. (Though I still like Nick Markakis, no matter what happens.)