Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is, the Rangers could only get one hit against Willis.  That’s right, Dwyck.  Dontrelle Willis went six and one-third, allowing only three baserunners and K’ing five.  The Rangers came into the game hitting lefties extremely well (.291) with Kinsler at .460 and Michael Young at .372.  So let’s all get jazzamatazzed, right?  Well, I don’t hold the same excitement.  His story definitely has the Lubitsch touch, but his last start was four earned in four and two-thirds against the Twins.  Dontrelle’s opponents will be tough, his recent history has been extremely poor and a 5/4 K/BB is poor.  There’s got to be at least a half dozen guys better on your waivers to take a chance on.  Let someone else buy a ticket for the D-Train.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

James Shields – 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, zero run support.  If only they batted Sonnanstine third…

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 4 baserunners, 0 ER, 6 Ks.   His Ks are solid, but he walks too many guys and right now he’s getting a bit lucky with how many guys he’s leaving on base.  Then throw in the fact that he pitches for the A’s and their A’nemic offense.  Outman shouldn’t be in, man, outside of AL-Only leagues.

Shairon Martis – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Yeah, should’ve known better than to trust a Nats pitcher.  I’d love to say stick with him, but I don’t trust him enough; his walks are too ugly.  He may be 5-0 on the year, but he could be 5-5 by July.

Elijah Dukes – To the DL with a strained hamstring.  So far the Bowden Fluffers have appropriately sucked.

Orlando Hudson – Day-to-day with a bruised shoulder.  Isn’t that Osso Bucco?  Or is that braised?

J.A. Happ – I know a J.T.  Hagman was a J.R.  The Braves have a G.A.  But J.A.?  Those initials don’t go together.  They’re like N.G.  He’s replacing Chan No in the rotation and I like him in 12 team or deeper for match-ups.  This Saturday against the Yanks isn’t a great one though.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-4 and hitting well since call-up.  Sometimes guys just breakout for no good reason.  Parra’s got room to play if he’s hot.  Could be what Fowler looked like in April.

Stephen Drew – 0-for-3, batting .203 on the seaosn.  It sure would be nice if he turned it on because the ‘Backs desperately want to believe in him as they bat him second, third and fourth on most nights.

Matt Palmer – 5 IP, 5 ER as he went to 5-0.  Matt Palmer?  Seriously?  Who’s he, a soap opera actor?

Josh Johnson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Surreal how poorly my Win Karma is this year.  Johnson was bested by Jon Garland, who has more Wins on the season than him too.  Do I need to do some Angel Heart voodoo shizz?  A Jobu doll?  Matt Palmer?  Please, send me a signal.  Throw me a line.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4 with a steal as he batted in the six hole.  A) Johnson’s a streaky hitter. B) He claims to prefer hitting lower in the order. C) There’s no C.

Ian Stewart – 0-for-4 with three Ks.  It helps that Atkins has been dreadful, but Stewart needs to make it count.

Nolan Reimold – 1-for-3 and batting an empty .250.  Same dealio as Stewart.  He has the chance, but he needs to do something with it.

Adam Jones – When the Orioles emerged from their clubhouse, there was a huge cloud of smoke as Jones returned to the lineup.

Joe Mauer – 7th homer of the year.  Obviously, he’s a cyborg.  Or stole Soto’s soul.

Pedro Feliz – 9 for his last 18.  Currently on one of those Happy streaks.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 4 ER.  Not his best start of the year.  The glass half-filled with Cueto Kool-Aid points out he didn’t walk anyone.  Glass half-empty, he gave up two homers.

Colby Rasmus – Has hit two homers in two nights, three homers in the last five games and he had one homer rained out the other day.  Now if he can string together more than one hit in a game, we’ll be all set.

Rick Ankiel – Set to return.  If he’s on waivers anywhere because of an impatient owner, he’s worth a pickup.  Remember Ankiel wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire when he was playing, so don’t get overzealous with who you drop.

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 4 ER.  And this came against the White Sox who have been scuffling for runs.  I think he’s headed back to the Disgraceful List.

Felix Hernandez – F-Her in the Big A and it didn’t work out well as he allowed 6 runs in 5 and two-thirds.

Barry Zito – 8 IP, 2 ER.  I admit it, I started him last night.  And I will again in his next start against the M’s.  From there, I’ll reevaluate.

Scott Hairston – HR yesterday as he went 2-for-2 and batted third.  I almost picked him up on Monday, but I was banking on a lot of steals against Chris Young and played speed heavy. (I came out with Nadir Bupkis.)

Bill Hall – H.A. double hockey sticks started at 3rd and went 1-for-4 with two Ks as Gamel combed his hair on the bench.

Kerry Wood – 4 earned runs as he blew… the save.  If there was anyone in the Indians bullpen worth owning, I’d say grab him, but alas there’s not.

Brian Bannister – 6 IP, 5 ER.  There’s the Bannister we know and don’t love.

Casey Blake – Hit his ninth homer yesterday and is batting .283 with 26 RBIs.  He’s out-hitting a lot of cornermen right now.

Noah Lowry – Scheduled to undergo surgery this week to have a rib removed from his left side. I know I’m not ordering the prime rib at Lawry’s any time soon.  Also, if I was Joe Nathan, I’d be very careful.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Phillies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of The Fightins.

1) Will Ryan Howard hit above .260 in 2009?

Yes. Yes he will.

Even I, the staunch Ryan Howard defender, can’t possibly begin to explain what the hell was going on with him at the start of 2008. By the end of May, the greatest power hitter in baseball was batting a dismal .206 with 78 punchouts; well on his way to obliterating the single-season strikeout record. He spent the better part of the summer trying to boost that first number while lowering the second. Over the next 4 months, he regained that MVP swagger and wound up hitting .273 with just 121 K’s in twice the amount of at-bats that he had in April and May.

I don’t think it would be asking too much to expect those same type of numbers throughout a full season in 2009.

For some odd reason, many baseball fans — especially in Philadelphia — don’t give Howard the propers he deserves. They think the strikeouts are way too high and average way too low, therefore dismissing the brute strength that has been known to deposit poorly-placed fastballs 25 rows deep in right field.

Me on the other hand, I have faith in the big guy. I’ll gladly take the behemoth who hits 175 homers in 3½ years, thankyouverymuch.

The point of baseball is to score more runs than the opposing team. Nobody will help you do this on a nightly-basis better than he. Because Ryan Howard just doesn’t produce — he PRODUCE.

2) When will Chase Utley return?  How do you think the surgery will change his game?

Your guess is as good as mine.  I assume he’ll miss the first month of the season, but then again, this is Chase F*cking Utley we’re talking about.  Towards the end of last year, you could really notice how the hip was bothering him.  He’d swing at pitches he usually crushes and put his head down right away knowing he didn’t get enough of it.

Chase’s offseason training regimen is sick, though.  By the end of next year, he’ll put up his usual line of .300+ BA/30+ HR/100+ RBI/100+ Runs and everyone will forget he was injured in the first place.

3) Cole Hamels avoided injuries and got above 30 starts in 2008. But does the 262 innings in 2008 worry you?  Can he stay healthy in 2009?

Yes, the increase in innings are definitely a cause for concern.

I wouldn’t dare call Cole Hamels soft (blasphemy!), but his stick-like frame and injury history would lead one to believe that a repeat performance is nearly impossible. As long as it’s nothing major, we (and by “we” I mean “the Phillies and I”) should have enough above-average pitching available (Happ, Kendrick, Carrasco) to come in and fill the void if need be.

But until he actually gets injured, I will go on believing that Cole Hamels is a cot damn iron man who will show up every fifth (or sixth) day with that outstanding change-up of his and continue to baffle MLB hitters.

Plus, he’s so dreamy!

4) The Phillie fans were notoriously hard on Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen yet they don’t boo Pedro Feliz.  Is this because his name translates to Pete Happy or is there another reason?

There is definitely another reason, and I’m pretty sure it has something to do with being the least productive member of the greatest run-producing infield ever assembled. While Schmidt and Rolen were supposed to be the team’s main source of offense, Pete Happy is best served playing in the shadow of guys like Chase, Young James, and Big Brown.

The reason Phillies fans were so hard on Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen was simple: they loved to complain. When a player in Philadelphia bitches about the fans, or the way they are being treated, the fans repay those players by booing the ever-loving shit out of them. Over time, we have forgiven Schmidt. He was a sensitive fellow, but at the end of the day, he was THEE greatest third baseman to ever play. Rolen on the other hand, was, is, and always shall be, a joyless prick with loads of talent who never lived up to his potential. At least now he gets to revel in the obscurity of playing for Toronto.

It’s just how he likes it, too. When no one pays attention to you, no one complains.

Say what you want about Feliz, but he was an unsung hero during the playoffs who — might I add — smacked the game-winning hit in the deciding contest of the World Series. And his glove work makes up for the fact that he can’t hit an off-speed pitch to save his life.

Seriously, why do pitchers even bother throwing him fastballs?

5) Because Raul Ibanez is boring, we’re going to end this with a Pat Burrell question.  It’s rumored that Pat Burrell was the man back in college days, earning the nickname, ‘Pat The Bat.’ (My girlfriend was a Sugarcane, the baseball team’s cheerleaders at University of Miami, and Burrell slept with a bunch of her friends.  I refuse to believe she was one of them.) So a friend of yours calls you up from a bar to tell you your wife/girlfriend is talking with a player.  Are you more worried if it’s Burrell or Brett Myers?

Rumored?!!?? That’s a FACT, brother.

Stories of Pat’s philandering — especially in his early days — are legendary around these parts. If you happen to run into an attractive girl under 30 in the Tri-State area, chances are Pat has slept with her, one of her good-looking friends, or both at the same time. Phils broadcaster Harry Kalas even told a story this year how teammates used to call him “Pat the Bait” because they would take him to a bar just so they could sample his leftovers. His LEFTOVERS!

The sad truth is, if you see your girlfriend/wife chatting it up with Pat Burrell in a bar, let her go man. It’s over.

And now for the actual opening day of the baseball season. The first full slate of games is almost in the books (minus the rainouts.) What I saw:

Verlander was dealing. He easily could’ve gotten the win, if not for…

Alex Gordon. After ranking him extremely high in my top 100, I’ll be watching closely all year.

When Miguel Cabrera hit his homer, he sprinted down the first base line hoping to get a double, which is what he would have had in South Florida. He’s accustomed to the Dolphin Stadium. He’s in for a huge season. And that’s not a waistline crack.

If Gary Sheffield stays healthy, he’s in for a terrific season batting in that lineup. His hands are still quick and he takes walks.

Tigers Announcers, Rod Allen and Mario Impemba, suck.

Nationals Announcers, Don Sutton and Bob Carpenter, are worse. They inexplicably described Pedro Feliz as one of the most underrated players in the league.

Surprisingly, Don’s kid, Darin Sutton, is one of the best announcers.

Nick Markakis has a stolen base. Here comes 30/20. Outside of The Greek God of Roto, the Orioles will be painful to watch this year and I would stay away from all Orioles starters and relievers. Sherrill won’t even be worth it.

Victor Martinez was pulled from the game with a hamstring injury. Am I worried? No, because I didn’t draft V-Mart in any league. Should you be worried if you did draft him? Yup. Someone you might want to think about…

Chris Snyder was batting fifth. He’s looking like a great pickup if he lasts in that spot.

Torre put Posada Russell Martin in the sixth hole. Guess it’s a force of habit for him to bat a catcher sixth. This could be an issue for Martin’s value.

Mark Reynolds might strikeout 200 times this year.

No reason to think Jim Thome can’t hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy.

My better logic says it’s only one day, my gut is telling me Franklin Gutierrez is in for a great year. I already said this, “…Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole.” Between Gutierrez and Lastings Milledge, I like Gutierrez better.

Johan Santana… Oh, man.

Eric Gagne… Oh, crap.

Kerry Wood… You knew that was coming. Carlos Marmol will be closing by May and end the season with more saves than Wood.

Carlos Zambrano, I’m not too concerned he was pulled because of the forearm cramp. Big Z could find a way to throw 120 pitches with a broken hand.

On one team, I had Pujols and Wainwright. Not thrilled I lost the home run, but I am thrilled there was a home run to lose. You should be too. Though I’m having a hard time seeing the positive in losing the Wainwright start.

Ian Snell will find a way to lose more games than he wins, but he’ll keep the games close. Always gives up a home run at some point.

I’m hoping Cox moves Matt Diaz up and Mark Kotsay down in the order against righties.

Michael Young hit a home run. That projects to 162 on the season. I’d say he falls short by about 150.

Yunel Escobar looked good. Quick wrists, knocking the ball to the opposite field.

Michael Bourn stole 2 bases. Granted, Ronnie Paulino could steal against Bard, but I told you to avoid drafting steals early and grab Bourn late. He might steal 50 this season.

I hate Tom Gordon.

Let me start by saying, I received an email from Rudy Gamble saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield – like a point/counterpoint. I said — Ok, point/counterpoint needs controversy, where’s the controversy with the Philly infield? Feels kinda obvious. Then he emailed me saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield and he’d use his newfangled player rater that he put together with a calculator. I see. He’s trying to make me look bad. First, I need to point something out; the calculator is a fairly new invention. Sure, the abacus as been around the block, but who uses an abacus? Babylonians. And what happened to the Babylonians? I think Prince dated one once. Other than that, Babylonians are bubkus. There’s surely not too many Babylonians playing fantasy baseball. So, with that said, if you want the Philly infield the non-scientific way, look at my fantasy projections. If you want scientific and/or you are a Babylonian, scroll down to Rudy’s.

Grey Albright:

1. Chase Utley – He’s the cheese and Rollins is the macaroni. If I could reinvent myself in someone’s image, I’d choose Chase. Hey, that’s got a good ring, Choose Chase. He should run for Philly mayor using that slogan. Right now, he’d win. This is a no-brainer for me. 2nd base is the toughest position to fill in fantasy where you need some value (Catcher is the hardest, but you can do workarounds there.). In an abbreviated ‘07, he still gave you 1st round numbers. Here’s what I said in the top ten overall in fantasy baseball post, “Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12.” I stand by those numbers, but that was before Feliz. With the addition of Feliz, subtract five runs.

2. Jimmy Rollins – Philly’s a racist town. Rollins won the MVP and yet he doesn’t see the love like Chase. That’s facts, man. And it’s depressing me. But what’s it doing to J. Roll? Will this make Rollins better or worse? Will Rollins tie his cornrows tighter and play with even more determination? J. Roll seems like he’s that type. To let it roll (pun intended, but still bad) off his shoulders and play even harder, but can he? I’m not so sure. Here’s what I wrote on the top twenty overall post, “…his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290.” I stand by those numbers, but with Feliz’s addition you have to subtract five runs and RBIs.

3. Ryan Howard – He’s a monster, probably will lead the majors in homers and could easily beat either Utes or Rolls in a game of “I will eat seven pounds of hamburger meat quicker than you.” He’s below Chase and Jimmy simply because the 1st base position is easier to fill with a heavyweight (I think this is a pun, too, and I apologize.) Back in January, I said his projections would be: 100/50/140/.275. With the addition of freakin’ Feliz, drop ten runs and five RBIs.

4. Pedro Feliz – I got one nice thing to say about Feliz, at least he’s not David Bell. The albatross hanging around the Phillies’s neck is third base, but it doesn’t need to be your burden. Pedro Feliz will kill your morale and you’ll end up muttering to yourself on a street corner. Write this on your fantasy cheatsheet, “Stay Away From Pedro Feliz.” Projections: 65/22/85/.245 so unless you’re drafting Ichiro, an ’07 Magglio Ordonez and a ’94 Tony Gwynn, “Stay Away from Pedro Feliz.” You’re welcome.

Rudy Gamble:

Welcome to our first edition of Point/Counterpoint. Grey (the guy who writes most of the posts) and I tend to have different approaches when ranking/judging players so we thought this might prove to be interesting. When we do agree on fantasy baseball, it tends to be either wise (Peavy will have a great 2007!), obvious (Reyes will steal a lot of SB in 2007!), or a harbinger of a roto-disaster (how can Jason Schmidt fail in LA!).

Anyway, without further ado, your very own Phillies infield, America!

4. Pedro Feliz – Signing this guy to a two-year contract drew the ire of some prognosticators. A naïve student of the game might look at the progression of Philly 3B over the years (Schmidt, Rolen, David Bell, Pedro Feliz – with some Dave Hollins, Wes Helms, and Charlie Hayes along the way) and see it as an insult to the Philly fan. On the contrary, Philly fans love to hate their 3B and welcome any justification to do so. Hating Schmidt – perhaps the best 3B of all time – took a lot of effort. Hating Rolen was slightly easier and seems prescient now that he ran himself out of St. Louis. But Pedro Feliz – jeez, you can find so much not to like. I don’t think he makes my top 30 3Bs. The weakest member of a quartet since Ringo Starr. (note: Pedro Feliz = Peter Happy. All he’s missing is Jeff Kent’s pornstache and he’s ready to bang. Best baseball player porn name since Kazuhito Tadano).

3. Ryan Howard – My projected MLB HR leader (47 HRs) and a top 5 finisher in RBIs (130 RBI). But aside from slightly above average run production, not much else from the big man. I have no problem drafting a HR/RBI guy in later rounds if you need power but in the 1st/2nd round, your only need is to draft the best overall player. I project the average 1B to hit .286 – Howard is projected at around .273. That’s roughly the value equivalent of removing 4 HR or 15 RBIs. Add no SBs and it makes him a 2 ½ stat player which gets him an early 3rd round value in my book (where he’ll be already off the board in all drafts) and a #3 ranking in the Philly infield. (note: Ever notice that Ryan Howard is also the name of the white intern-promoted-to-boss on ‘The Office’? It’s set in the Philly suburb of Scranton. Not one joke about it? I enjoy it when people of different races have the same name – gives me the warm and fuzzies. I wait for the day when a white, black, latino, and an asian baseball player all share the same name. All we need is an Asian Lee in the majors to make it happen on the last name (Cliff Lee – White, Derrek Lee – Black, Carlos Lee – Latino). If only Sang-Hoon Lee had panned out…)

Now for the tough one – Utley or Rollins. I think they are close enough in value that taking one ahead of the other wouldn’t qualify as a blunder. Position scarcity doesn’t play a role here – the only difference I see in 2B and SS projections are that SS has better SBs. Otherwise, you’re looking at about 15 players in each position that’ll average about 85/18/72/.283. Both players project about the same for runs. Utley has more value at HR, RBI, and AVG. Rollins has more value on SBs. I’ve got Utley’s HR/RBI advantage equaling Rollins SB advantage (will explain more in upcoming Player Rater just how) so Utley’s better AVG puts him over the top. Maybe they’ll let him win the MVP this year to set the record for the most consecutive MVPs on a team averaging less than 90 wins.

2. Jimmy Rollins (early 2nd round value)

1. Chase Utley (late 1st round value)