Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not going to debate anyone on Kazmir’s brilliance. He’s brilliant. I realize that. You realize that. We agree. See that. But he’s not going to make it through the season. Just as I told you about the Glass Chipper yesterday, I’m telling you the same shizz today. Do his numbers matter from yesterday’s game? Not in the least. If someone believes he’s turned the injury corner and trucking down healthy highway, trade Kazmir to them for a quality hitter. Don’t trade him for Jason Bartlett and a Teletubbie DVD. Be reasonable! This is not rocket science. This is fantasy baseball. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s verbiage (Word of the Day), go check out Greener’s new site, Fantasyphenoms.com. It’s all new and flashy. (Not flashy like Macromedia’s downloadable spyware crizz-ap. I mean, blingy and cool.) Their site is informational and… Well, check it out.

Ryan Howard - I begged everyone to go grab him for the last three weeks. I told you here and here in just the last week. (Hmm, maybe I should stop talking about him.) Anyway, now it’s too late.

Shane Victorino - The Hawaiian is flying.

Chad Billingsley - I’ve been accused of favoring NL pitchers. Yeah, so.

Chipper Jones - Glass Chipper didn’t start last night because of a tweaked groin. Maybe I jinxed him or maybe it’s the last 700 games of his career trends just coming true. You make the call.

Art Shamsky - Looks just like Tommy Lee Jones. You’re welcome, Mets fans.

Dmitri Young - The Meathook’s back and No-Jo is injured and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Nick Johnson is like that girl that wouldn’t sleep with you for, like, 6 months, then on your 6 month anniversary she told you to wait a few more months, then on your two year anniversary, she went on the DL. You wait, you wait and nothing. That’s Nick Johnson.

Adam LaRoche - He’s not an ApRil player or a high aveRage player or… Well, he has his dRawbacks, but he can hit 30 home runs.

Jay Bruce - Patterson might be benched, Griffey or Dunn might be moved soon. (Not that anyone can really move Dunn, except for Dunn. And he doesn’t move himself for anything less than sixteen hamburgers, a large fry and three apple pies.)

Santiago Casilla - Left the game with an apparent arm injury. You don’t need a middle reliever with an arm problem. Oh, well. He was having a nice year, but you gotta let him go.

Matt Joyce - Sure, he sounds like an 18th Century poet, but he should be platooned in against righties on all deep teams.

Masa Kobayashi - Will probably be the closer for the next two weeks.

Joe Borowski - Will probably be the closer by the end of the month. Way to run with the ball, Betancourt!

Ryan Franklin - Officially replaced Isringhausen for now. With Izzy going on the DL, which is code for get your shizz together with Dave Duncan.

Pedro Feliz - Peter Happy is streaky and he just hit a home run and another ball that should’ve been a home run, but was a single — don’t ask.

John Smoltz - He can be very valuable in the bullpen and can get saves. So if you need saves, stop reading. If you wanted Smoltz as your front line starter and don’t need a closer, then you should trade him quickly before he comes back just in case he has more arm problems. Right now, everyone’s thinking he can succeed as a closer as he did before. He might, but he’s 41 and it’s been a few seasons since the last time he pitched in the ninth and on consecutive days.

Chuck James - My name is Chuck James and I have a can’t-pitch-effectively problem.

And now for the actual opening day of the baseball season. The first full slate of games is almost in the books (minus the rainouts.) What I saw:

Verlander was dealing. He easily could’ve gotten the win, if not for…

Alex Gordon. After ranking him extremely high in my top 100, I’ll be watching closely all year.

When Miguel Cabrera hit his homer, he sprinted down the first base line hoping to get a double, which is what he would have had in South Florida. He’s accustomed to the Dolphin Stadium. He’s in for a huge season. And that’s not a waistline crack.

If Gary Sheffield stays healthy, he’s in for a terrific season batting in that lineup. His hands are still quick and he takes walks.

Tigers Announcers, Rod Allen and Mario Impemba, suck.

Nationals Announcers, Don Sutton and Bob Carpenter, are worse. They inexplicably described Pedro Feliz as one of the most underrated players in the league.

Surprisingly, Don’s kid, Darin Sutton, is one of the best announcers.

Nick Markakis has a stolen base. Here comes 30/20. Outside of The Greek God of Roto, the Orioles will be painful to watch this year and I would stay away from all Orioles starters and relievers. Sherrill won’t even be worth it.

Victor Martinez was pulled from the game with a hamstring injury. Am I worried? No, because I didn’t draft V-Mart in any league. Should you be worried if you did draft him? Yup. Someone you might want to think about…

Chris Snyder was batting fifth. He’s looking like a great pickup if he lasts in that spot.

Torre put Posada Russell Martin in the sixth hole. Guess it’s a force of habit for him to bat a catcher sixth. This could be an issue for Martin’s value.

Mark Reynolds might strikeout 200 times this year.

No reason to think Jim Thome can’t hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy.

My better logic says it’s only one day, my gut is telling me Franklin Gutierrez is in for a great year. I already said this, “…Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole.” Between Gutierrez and Lastings Milledge, I like Gutierrez better.

Johan Santana… Oh, man.

Eric Gagne… Oh, crap.

Kerry Wood… You knew that was coming. Carlos Marmol will be closing by May and end the season with more saves than Wood.

Carlos Zambrano, I’m not too concerned he was pulled because of the forearm cramp. Big Z could find a way to throw 120 pitches with a broken hand.

On one team, I had Pujols and Wainwright. Not thrilled I lost the home run, but I am thrilled there was a home run to lose. You should be too. Though I’m having a hard time seeing the positive in losing the Wainwright start.

Ian Snell will find a way to lose more games than he wins, but he’ll keep the games close. Always gives up a home run at some point.

I’m hoping Cox moves Matt Diaz up and Mark Kotsay down in the order against righties.

Michael Young hit a home run. That projects to 162 on the season. I’d say he falls short by about 150.

Yunel Escobar looked good. Quick wrists, knocking the ball to the opposite field.

Michael Bourn stole 2 bases. Granted, Ronnie Paulino could steal against Bard, but I told you to avoid drafting steals early and grab Bourn late. He might steal 50 this season.

I hate Tom Gordon.

Let me start by saying, I received an email from Rudy Gamble saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield – like a point/counterpoint. I said — Ok, point/counterpoint needs controversy, where’s the controversy with the Philly infield? Feels kinda obvious. Then he emailed me saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield and he’d use his newfangled player rater that he put together with a calculator. I see. He’s trying to make me look bad. First, I need to point something out; the calculator is a fairly new invention. Sure, the abacus as been around the block, but who uses an abacus? Babylonians. And what happened to the Babylonians? I think Prince dated one once. Other than that, Babylonians are bubkus. There’s surely not too many Babylonians playing fantasy baseball. So, with that said, if you want the Philly infield the non-scientific way, look at my fantasy projections. If you want scientific and/or you are a Babylonian, scroll down to Rudy’s.

Grey Albright:

1. Chase Utley – He’s the cheese and Rollins is the macaroni. If I could reinvent myself in someone’s image, I’d choose Chase. Hey, that’s got a good ring, Choose Chase. He should run for Philly mayor using that slogan. Right now, he’d win. This is a no-brainer for me. 2nd base is the toughest position to fill in fantasy where you need some value (Catcher is the hardest, but you can do workarounds there.). In an abbreviated ‘07, he still gave you 1st round numbers. Here’s what I said in the top ten overall in fantasy baseball post, “Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12.” I stand by those numbers, but that was before Feliz. With the addition of Feliz, subtract five runs.

2. Jimmy Rollins – Philly’s a racist town. Rollins won the MVP and yet he doesn’t see the love like Chase. That’s facts, man. And it’s depressing me. But what’s it doing to J. Roll? Will this make Rollins better or worse? Will Rollins tie his cornrows tighter and play with even more determination? J. Roll seems like he’s that type. To let it roll (pun intended, but still bad) off his shoulders and play even harder, but can he? I’m not so sure. Here’s what I wrote on the top twenty overall post, “…his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290.” I stand by those numbers, but with Feliz’s addition you have to subtract five runs and RBIs.

3. Ryan Howard – He’s a monster, probably will lead the majors in homers and could easily beat either Utes or Rolls in a game of “I will eat seven pounds of hamburger meat quicker than you.” He’s below Chase and Jimmy simply because the 1st base position is easier to fill with a heavyweight (I think this is a pun, too, and I apologize.) Back in January, I said his projections would be: 100/50/140/.275. With the addition of freakin’ Feliz, drop ten runs and five RBIs.

4. Pedro Feliz – I got one nice thing to say about Feliz, at least he’s not David Bell. The albatross hanging around the Phillies’s neck is third base, but it doesn’t need to be your burden. Pedro Feliz will kill your morale and you’ll end up muttering to yourself on a street corner. Write this on your fantasy cheatsheet, “Stay Away From Pedro Feliz.” Projections: 65/22/85/.245 so unless you’re drafting Ichiro, an ’07 Magglio Ordonez and a ’94 Tony Gwynn, “Stay Away from Pedro Feliz.” You’re welcome.

Rudy Gamble:

Welcome to our first edition of Point/Counterpoint. Grey (the guy who writes most of the posts) and I tend to have different approaches when ranking/judging players so we thought this might prove to be interesting. When we do agree on fantasy baseball, it tends to be either wise (Peavy will have a great 2007!), obvious (Reyes will steal a lot of SB in 2007!), or a harbinger of a roto-disaster (how can Jason Schmidt fail in LA!).

Anyway, without further ado, your very own Phillies infield, America!

4. Pedro Feliz – Signing this guy to a two-year contract drew the ire of some prognosticators. A naïve student of the game might look at the progression of Philly 3B over the years (Schmidt, Rolen, David Bell, Pedro Feliz – with some Dave Hollins, Wes Helms, and Charlie Hayes along the way) and see it as an insult to the Philly fan. On the contrary, Philly fans love to hate their 3B and welcome any justification to do so. Hating Schmidt – perhaps the best 3B of all time – took a lot of effort. Hating Rolen was slightly easier and seems prescient now that he ran himself out of St. Louis. But Pedro Feliz – jeez, you can find so much not to like. I don’t think he makes my top 30 3Bs. The weakest member of a quartet since Ringo Starr. (note: Pedro Feliz = Peter Happy. All he’s missing is Jeff Kent’s pornstache and he’s ready to bang. Best baseball player porn name since Kazuhito Tadano).

3. Ryan Howard – My projected MLB HR leader (47 HRs) and a top 5 finisher in RBIs (130 RBI). But aside from slightly above average run production, not much else from the big man. I have no problem drafting a HR/RBI guy in later rounds if you need power but in the 1st/2nd round, your only need is to draft the best overall player. I project the average 1B to hit .286 – Howard is projected at around .273. That’s roughly the value equivalent of removing 4 HR or 15 RBIs. Add no SBs and it makes him a 2 ½ stat player which gets him an early 3rd round value in my book (where he’ll be already off the board in all drafts) and a #3 ranking in the Philly infield. (note: Ever notice that Ryan Howard is also the name of the white intern-promoted-to-boss on ‘The Office’? It’s set in the Philly suburb of Scranton. Not one joke about it? I enjoy it when people of different races have the same name – gives me the warm and fuzzies. I wait for the day when a white, black, latino, and an asian baseball player all share the same name. All we need is an Asian Lee in the majors to make it happen on the last name (Cliff Lee – White, Derrek Lee – Black, Carlos Lee – Latino). If only Sang-Hoon Lee had panned out…)

Now for the tough one – Utley or Rollins. I think they are close enough in value that taking one ahead of the other wouldn’t qualify as a blunder. Position scarcity doesn’t play a role here – the only difference I see in 2B and SS projections are that SS has better SBs. Otherwise, you’re looking at about 15 players in each position that’ll average about 85/18/72/.283. Both players project about the same for runs. Utley has more value at HR, RBI, and AVG. Rollins has more value on SBs. I’ve got Utley’s HR/RBI advantage equaling Rollins SB advantage (will explain more in upcoming Player Rater just how) so Utley’s better AVG puts him over the top. Maybe they’ll let him win the MVP this year to set the record for the most consecutive MVPs on a team averaging less than 90 wins.

2. Jimmy Rollins (early 2nd round value)

1. Chase Utley (late 1st round value)