Fantasy Baseball Advice

Rafael Furcal returns to the Braves, which can’t be a good thing for 2009 fantasy baseball owners. I mean, it can, but it probably won’t be. This move will have people slightly too excited about Furcal.  Then you throw in his great April in 2008 — hitting .357 with 5 home runs and 8 steals in only 36 games.  Again, this could lead to unrealistic expectations.  36 games does not a season make.  Don’t think Furcal has a .350+ average in his tuba case.  He doesn’t.  Last year, Furcal had a BABIP of .380 in April.  A number that would’ve came down if he played the rest of the season, leading Furcal to be the .285 hitter he is. Hey, a 15/35, .285 hitter is nothing to sneeze at. Oh, yeah? Well, atchoo! No, that wasn’t Casey Kotchman with mono. Furcal is now 31 and hasn’t had a productive season in three seasons.  Maybe he can rebound like Yao Ming, but Furcal’s now coming off back surgery.  Does that still sound promising to you?  It shouldn’t.  If Furcal drops in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, then, by all means, pounce like Davey Boy Smith, but I don’t want any part of Furcal before the tenth shortstop off the draft board. Unless, and once again for the hyperopic, UNLESS Furcal moves to second base.  Which brings us to…

Yunel Escobar/Kelly Johnson – Um, wasn’t Yunel going to play short?  Okay, so either a trade is going to happen — which Peavy, his family and his goumadas will welcome already — or Kelly Johnson will go to the outfield, Yunel to short and Furcal to 2nd base or Furcal stays at short and Yunel and Kelly Johnson split time at 2nd.  If Yunel doesn’t get out of Turner South and the last option comes to fruition, this could really hurt Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson’s 2009 fantasy value. Stay tuned!*

*This post was brought to you by TBS and Frank TV.

UPDATE: Turns out that airline ticket was nonrefundable and this post was brought to by KTLA.  I still think Furcal is nothing more than the tenth shortstop off the board.  What I said about him above doesn’t change. That’s what I see for Rafael Furcal in 2009.   Thankfully, this doesn’t effect Yunel and Johnson like I feared.

Nope. Not yet at least. I’m not sure Peavy will be traded either. The Padres are asking for too much, but let’s play The Devil’s Advocate for a second. “Whoa… Hoo-Hah!” Get it? Cause I was playing The Devil’s Advocate, which starred Keanu and Pacino so I said, “Whoa–” Forget it.  So if Peavy is traded, what would this mean for fantasy baseball? Well, if Peavy is traded to the Braves, the run support gets ticked up. If Peavy is traded to the Yankees, more run support. Frankly, if Peavy is traded to the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, he’s going to receive more run support.  Now if Peavy is traded to the Cubs, Yankees, Braves or anywhere, he’ll also be leaving the friendly “can’t-finds a bigger stadium than Petco.” In the end, Peavy is variations of the same pitcher no matter where he gets traded, but the traded variation is definitely a lower-grade Peavy than we’ve seen in the past.

Jake Peavy’s Away ERA in 2008 was 4.28. Home ERA was 1.75. Peavy’s three year average ERA Away from Petco is 3.73 — a full run higher than his home ERA. Sure, 2008 was a down year for Peavy because of an elbow injury. But what makes anyone think an elbow injury is a good sign that Peavy’s 2009 season is going to be better? Is that what you look for in pitchers? No, me either. Now I think all of this will be moot because the Padres want back waaaay too much. (That’s right, four A’s on that way. Watch out!) I’ve read they want from the Braves Jurrjens, Yunel and the hot pitching prospect, Tommy Hanson. Mmmbop… That ain’t happening. Then the Chicago Tribune is talking about a trade of Adrian Gonzalez and Peavy for Derrek Lee, Sean Marshall and Felix Pie. This trade doesn’t even sound that great for the Padres. They want Lee and Pie? Don’t they already have a lack of power?  In the end, I think Peavy stays with the Padres and in Petco. For your fantasy baseball team, you should hope so.

That title there, that’s country speak. This here boy, Adam Dunn, he’s country strong and this, folks, this is the 2nd half of the baseball season. Let’s git ‘r Dunn! Since July 6th, Adam Dunn has 6 hits in the last 8 games. Guess how many of those were home runs. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *scratches head, picks ear, adjusts macksack* 6 of 6 were home runs. My man’s predictable. In. The. Best. Way. Possible. Yesterday, I went over how precious time is from now until the end of the season. (I’m not talking precious like making sure you go see your kids play soccer or some shizz.) If you need home runs, there are so few guys that could put up 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Dunn is one. Now will Dunn’s average make you long for the days of Tony Pena Jr.? Maybe. But a funny thing happened on the way to the end of last season. Dunn hit .273 post-All-Star Break. Zoinks! Say what, karaoke? You heard me. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton – This is a lot better move for real baseball than it is for fantasy baseball. I’d throw a few dollars towards him in an NL-only waiver claim or I’d use a mid-level waiver claim. Yes, this is coming from the guy who preaches you should use your waiver claim fast and furious. Why do I say only a mid-level claim for Joe Blah? Cause I don’t really want him in any league, even in an NL-only league.

Chris Iannetta – 2-run HR. I keep getting questions in the comments or the forum about this guy. Grey, should I go with Pudge over Iannetta cuz, like, he has a starting job? Doooode, if you’re forced to have Pudge on your team, you should hope he loses the starting job. Iannetta has 10 HRs in a timeshare. You won’t take 3 or 4 good days a week instead of 6 crappy ones? Not to mention, Iannetta’s going to be getting more and more time in front of Torrealba.

Adam LaRoche – He’s at .415 for the month. If you picked him up today, you care what his April was like? That was rhetorical.

David Wright – Jerry Manuel did such great work to get Wright to hit a HR today. That was sarcastic.

Johan Santana – Tagged for 5 ER in 4 IP. After the game, he was seen dialing up his old friend, Kyle Lohse, for advice.

Marcus Thames – Hit his 18th HR in like 15 at-bats or something. I think if Thames and Dunn were in the home run derby we’d see 50 HRs and our first strikeout.

Francisco Cordero – Gave up 4 ER, 6 hits in 1/3 of an inning. I just traded him in one league with Fuentes for Ellsbury. Now I know how Tina Turner felt when Ike died. Phew.

Edwin Encarnacion – HR yesterday. I was going to put Double E on my top 100 for the 2nd half. Besides him having a good post-All-Star break last year, I couldn’t find a way to justify it. Encarnacion could be solid again, but my faith left the building.

Troy Glaus – 2 HRs. Glaus is another one that almost made the list. I pardon you. Glaus has been torrid of late. If a guy is hot for one month after the All-Star break, then you drop him for some other hot schmohawk in Augtember, you’ll be doing fine. Cust kayin’.

Kyle Lohse – 2 ER in 7 IP and Lohse moved to 12-2. Lohse says he owes it all to a chimpanzee named Ed, who turned out to be a best friend and a hirsute matchmaker of hilarious proportions. With Lohse and the chimp’s help, the Cards just might win the pennant!

Jake Peavy – Gave up four HRs and lost to Lohse. After the game, Peavy said, “I gotta get me a chimp.”

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano – On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ‘08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley – Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis – Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker – Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto – On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger – I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles – Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes – Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham – It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy – I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda – He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew – With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders – I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook – Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan – I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!

Jake Peavy is scheduled to start on Thursday. Despite the fact that Peavy’s been on the DL for much of the year and the whole offense blows except for A-Gonz and Brian Giles’ OBP, San Diego is only 7 games back of Arizona. But just in case Jake was feeling nervous, we thought we’d calm him down with some inspiration from claymation canine Goliath (if this doesn’t ring a bell, watch the YouTube video first.)

Jake Peavy plaintively looking around the San Diego locker room at his teammates.

Goliath: Whatcha looking for, Peeeaveeey?
Jake: Goliath, do you see any hitters in this locker room?
Goliath: It matters what you mean by a hitter, Peeaveeey.
Jake: These people keep telling me that we have an offense but I look around and they all suck except for Adrian Gonzalez.
Goliath: That’s not a nice thing to say.
Jake: I know, Goliath. I guess I’m just nervous.
Goliath: Why is that, Peeeaveeey?
Jake: It’s just…I’m coming off a fairly long DL stint and my only practice was against my teammates. I’m afraid I’ll give up more than 1 run and then I won’t have a chance to get a win.
Goliath: Oh Peeeaveeey. Well I know a lot of fantasy baseball teams count on you and they realize you probably won’t win because the Padres offense is damned on account of Khalil Greene believing in a cockamamie religion.
Jake: Cocka-what?
Goliath: But if you give them 10 Ks and 3 runs or less in 7 IP, they’ll be very happy.
Jake: You really think so, Goliath.
Goliath: I know so, Peeeaveey. Now get off my DL and earn me some stats.
Jake: You got it, Goliath!

Anyway, here’s what else we saw:

Ryan Ludwick – The breakthrough season continues. 4-5, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI. We have him as the 25th most valuable player so far this year (based on Point Shares). Ankiel chipped in a HR too. And no one involved in the Cardinal organization drove drunk tonight. That’s a heartwarming night for the Cards except….

Albert Pujols – Strained his calf and was helped off the field. He was said to have ‘calf cramps’ for a couple days now. Someone start massaging his motherfuckin’ calf. What’s the problem here? Wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the DL. At least he could spend some time with his children on Father’s Day – with the youngest entering college in September, he’s got to learn to cherish these moments.

Chris Duncan – If Pujols does take an extended siesta, we can see Dave’s Kid.

Dustin McGowan – Did his best Roy Halladay impersonation with a complete game win against Seattle. That is 5 quality starts out of 6 since his 9 ER stinker on May 10th

Dodgers – Furcal’s now rumored to be out until the All-Star Break. Schmidt smells like sourdough toast. Andruw would be shot if he was a horse. Nomar is more fragile than Alanis Morisette after a breakup. That’s 4 of your top 5 in Dodger salary. Hell, Juan Pierre is a relative bargain at $8MM/per….

Jonathan Broxton – Saw him bat yesterday. Member the show Mama’s Family? Imagine Mama with a bat.

Bill Hall – Started at 2nd with Rickie being weak. Hall at 2nd is butter on the rooster, if you catch my drift. (I don’t even catch my drift, but I’m writing this at midnight my time, so bear with me.)

Rocco Baldelli – Is playing in extended spring training. What is extended spring training? Is this like after hours clubs that always have the “most slammin’ music” and the “most bangin’ ladies” then when you show up it’s 30,000 Asian dudes with glow sticks drinking energy drinks.

Josh Barfield – Hurt himself right after getting called up. Looks like Father’s Day at the Barfield’s, Jesse might have to bust out those hilarious anecdotes of how him and his other son send each other to the hospital.