Fantasy Baseball Advice

Evan Longoria is out for 6 to 8 weeks.  Let’s look on the bright side.  According to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater, Longoria has been less valuable than Encarnacion and Aviles at 3rd base.  On the less bright side, those guys have been really, really good.  Okay, that bright side argument didn’t play out so well.  Let’s try again.  On the bright side, I told everyone to draft Longoria and drafted him myself, so you can point at me and say how screwed I am.  On the less bright side, if you’re reading this, there’s a chance you listened to me and drafted Longoria too.  Okay, last try.  In the 6 weeks he will miss, Longoria would’ve gave you around 8 homers and 30 RBIs with a .300 average.  You can get that off waivers from Pedro Alvarez or Chris Davis (if all those coins I just dumped into a wishing well mean anything).  Did I just try to convince myself that Pedro Alvarez was going to give me the same stats as Longoria?  Wow, glad I haven’t convinced myself anything dangerous like I can fly or I can heal Longoria’s torn hammy by kidnapping him and taking him to St. Petersburg where they filmed Cocoon.  Though I guess taking him to St. Pete couldn’t hurt… Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Moore – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Pull your arms inside, I’m closing the window to buy low on Moore.

Matt Joyce – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 6th homer.  Every year he’s a beast before the All-Star break.  Will someone remind me next February to place Joyce in my top 100 overall?  It sounds like crazy talk, but think about this.  You draft Joyce in the top 100, then someone will underperform on your team when the season starts (Stanton, McCutchen, do I have to continue with the names?) so you trade the underachiever for a different piece and play Joyce.  Then you’ll be winning your league and people will be like how is this schmohawk winning when he took Joyce in the 8th round?

Nolan Reimold – Will miss a few days with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  Reimold says he will be back in a few days, which is pretty much what he’s said for the last week, so he also has a broken record.

Brian Matusz – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  2nd consecutive solid start from Matusz…And his WHIP is still 1.70.  Ma nish ta no thank you as I pass over him.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4, 3 runs and his 5th homer.  See, he’s totally as good as Longoria!  (Or I’m taking my fountain coins back.  All of them Mouth-style.)

J.J. Hardy – 1-for-5 with his 4th homer as he bats .185, which is my weight soaking wet, holding a 20 pound bottle of mayonnaise.

Shin-Soo Choo – Yesterday, Rudy said over IM that he thought they were going to designate for assignment Choo.  Then I remembered his keyboard N doesn’t work.  He meant Chone with an E typo and no N.  Though, DFA’ing Choo didn’t sound as crazy as it should have.  With that said, Choo sat out again yesterday with a tight hamstring and hasn’t played in a week.  If Choo’s hamstrings wrote for Razzball, you’d get a roundup every other week.

Jordan Schafer – Out with an oblique strain.  Just thinking about how weird words are that start with oh-bee.  Oblique, oblong, OB-GYN.  Eh, maybe it’s just me.

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-2 with his 2nd homer in three games.  When Lowrie gets hot, he gets hot schmotato hot, and when he gets cold, it’s because he’s injured.  WHO!  (While Healthy Own.)

Paul Goldschmidt – 3-for-4, I was thinking that his 1-for-3 on Monday might’ve been a sign, but yesterday’s telling me he’s alive.  If an impatient owner dropped him, grab him immediately.  AuShizz is on!

Krispie Young – Took 35 swings yesterday.  Just give me three of your best and get on the field!  Ah fanabla, he’s not due back for a few weeks still.

Trevor Cahill – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  His ERA is now at 3.13.  Aren’t you glad you panicked after his last start?

Jarrod Dyson – 2-for-4, 2 runs out of the leadoff spot.  He also got a steal on Sunday.  If you need steals, I could see grabbing him, but once Cain returns (soon) I’m not sure Dyson will play.  Or maybe I’m just not picking up Dyson because I’m chicken.

Jeff Francoeur – 3-for-4, maybe Frenchy is finally coming out of his season long slump.  If he is, could he bring Hosmer with him?  Thank you.

Rick Porcello – 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks, lowering his ERA to 5.64, and raising his “How many times will someone ask in the comments if they should pick up Porcello” quotient to 6.89.

Mike Carp – Activated from the DL.  94% (no math done) of the outfielders on waivers are the Alex Presley type, which leaves only 17% (still no math) of the outfielders giving power.  So if you’re in the lesser quarter percentile (throwing math out the window at this point), I’d grab Carp, or Crap if you’re kinda dyslexic.

Jesus Montero – 4-for-4 with no runs, RBIs or steals.  The Charley Lau Special!

Michael Saunders – 1-for-4 with his 4th home run.  We actually go over Saunders later on today in the podcast.  You can hardly wait!  No, you!

Jason Kipnis – 3-for-4 with a SB.  Now has his AVG up to .280 with 3 HR and 5 SB – good for top 5 in the Player Rater for 2B.  We are Kipnissing history.

Ryan Zimmerman – Says he’s going to return on Sunday.  I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  It’s filed right after, “If there was celery ice cream, I could eat all I want and still lose calories.”

Bryce Harper – Jumped into a pickup softball game yesterday in Washington.  Softball when you’re not old enough to drink?  That sounds terrible!  Somewhere, Matt Stairs is nodding his head yes.

Jose Iglesias – Recalled by the Red Sox to provide depth as Youuuuuuuuk nurses his big-baby-itis.  Iglesias is a good pick up if your league has a Web Gem category.

Gordon Beckham – 3-for-4 including his 1st HR of the year.  One more of those and someone’s gonna have a big boy average (.200+).

Yadier Molina – 2-for-5 with 3 runs and 2 SBs.  Other catchers are having great years but Yadier is #1 on the player rater for catchers and it’s not that close.  He must’ve kept some of Pujols’s mojo.

Cory Luebke- Will be skipped with a sore elbow.   As frequent commenter, royce! said, “With Luebke being hurt, the Padres get to show off their minor league depth and call up… Jeff Suppan?  I’m thinking a sad trombone would work here, but a “trombone being kicked in the nuts” would be more appropriate.”

Jonny Venters – 2/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew Beachy’s quality start (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks).  Fredi Gonzalez said Venters’s punishment is having to throw another 120 games in a row.

Curtis Granderson – 2-for-3 with his 9th home run.  Okay, but Stanton has 10 RBIs, so there!

Kelly Johnson – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 5th homer.  I’ll be honest, I don’t know what every player is currently doing.  Johnson was one of those I wasn’t sure about.  So someone asked if they should drop him the other day and I looked at his stats.  This guy you want to drop?  I’d give you Cano’s stats for Kelly Johnson’s stats right now.  Actually, I’ll give you Longoria, Cano and Stanton’s stats if you want them.  Kelly Johnson has more RBIs than Bautista right now.  Oh, and I like Aaron Hill right now too.  Danny Espinosa, not so much.  He looks like the turd that my ex-girlfriend put in my bed in college.  A story you can read all about in my e-book!

Adam Lind – 0-for-4 with one homer on the year as he bats .203.  This ship sailed and then sunk.

Jemile Weeks – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 5th steal.  Holding the mirror to his nose, and it faintly fogs up.

Grant Balfour – 1/3 IP, 2 ER and his fifth earned run in his last two appearances.  As the closerousel turns… I’d grab Ryan Cook only because I think Brian Fuentes is bad at, ya know, pitching.

Jarrod Parker – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks in Fenway.  Sonavabench!

Pedro Alvarez – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  Only 7 more homers and 27 more RBIs and you will have admirably filled in for Longoria.

Jose Tabata – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  He’s also batting over .350 in the last week.  Hey, Tah-bah-ta, Tah-bah-ta, Tah-bah-ta, swing, Tah-bah-ta!

Ubaldo Jimenez – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER– Well, whatever.  You can’t own him anywhere.  Take him and Chacin, give them two Entertainment.com coupons to Souplantation and hope they get food poisoning.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer to keep pace with A.J. Ellis.

Heath Bell – Threw the perfect inning for the save, and the closer leash goes out a hair, but remember it’s retractable.

Jerome Williams – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks as he threw a shutout vs. Minnesota.  Nothing gives pitchers the O face like facing Twins.

Torii Hunter – 2-for-2 with his 2nd homer in as many games, equaling the I’s he dots.

Albert Pujols – 0-for-4.  Now being outhomered by Dee Gordon.  Though Dee Gordon’s homer came off his head as Matt Kemp was swinging him.

Peter Bourjos – Benched for the 4th time in 5 games by the Sciosciapath who has decided not to play a struggling prospect with awesome defense in favor of Vernon Wells.  Peter, welcome to the Doghouse That Napoli built.  The Sciosciapath is going at this all wrong.  He should try to one-up his student, Joe “Infield Shift” Maddon, by playing a two man outfield of Bourjos and Trout and then play five infielders.  “Hey, Maicer, you always wondered what UTIL meant?  It means U stand behind second base ‘TIL I tell you to come back to the dugout.”

Mat Gamel – Left yesterday’s game after running into a fence.  This gives me a great idea.  Baseball stadiums should have no fences.  Only players should wear electric shock collars, so when they get to a certain point in foul territory they’re shocked. Problem solved!

Heath Bell is giving out two run innings like he’s Daryl Hannah giving out crazy vibes. Yesterday, was the fourth time in 8 appearances this year he’s allowed 2 runs.  His WHIP (2.70) looks like an ERA, his ERA looks a perfect score from a corrupt figure skater judge (10.80) and the Red Sox are wondering if he can be their closer.  At some point, Bell should be replaced as closer, and, with the way he’s been pitching, that point was about three weeks ago.  Astute Razzball reader, “Is Cishek or Mujica the replacement?”  I thought you were the astute one.  Mujica looks to be the set-up man, but I think Cishek gets first crack.  It’s called a hunch, like how Guy Fieri eats a sandwich.  As of right now, I wouldn’t drop Bell, but I also wouldn’t put him in my active roster.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Juan Carlos Oviedo – MLB suspended Juan Carlos Ovideo (Leo Nunez) for eight weeks for using a fake identity.  No plan to suspend Heath Bell for impersonating Kevin Gregg.  In his time off, Leo the Lyin’ plans on snorkeling through Atlantis, talking to his giant rabbit Harvey and hunting Sasquatch.

Yu Darvish – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Looking like a true sterling Darvish.

Evan Longoria – Left yesterday’s game with a knee injury after trying to steal 2nd.  The Rays are calling it “knee soreness.”  I’m calling it “it better be just soreness.”

Miguel Olivo – Homered, but whatever he also left yesterday’s game because his groin got injury duty, leaving the M’s summonsing Montero (who also homered)!  Olivo’s headed to the 15-day DL, so guess who will get 10 games played at catcher just a tad quicker now?  Hey, I’m smiling.  That feels weird.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3 with his 8th homer and 4th game in a row with one.  His hot hitting has my heart stopped…. captured…. arrested… It’s a case of Edwin Incarceration.

Allen Craig – Look at Allen Craig strutting around with two first names while R. Kelly’s only got an initial.  Craig is set to return from the DL.  Probably won’t play 2nd base, but whatever, that’s real baseball talk.  He’s eligible there in most fantasy leagues.  He could get teen homers and a handful of steals with everyday playing time, which he should have.

Kyle Drabek – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks, as he lowers his ERA to 2.40 while striking out nearly a batter per inning.  I’ve told just about anyone who’s asked in the comments that they should pick up Drabek, friend.

Brad Lidge – He’s gonna miss May with hernia surgery.  So he went from Vertigo to Nads on a Strain.

Tom Milone – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER in Fenway.  Eh, even in our deep leagues we benched Milone here.  Don’t hate the playa (not Spanish for beach), hate the game.

Kevin Youkilis – Was scratched with a sore back.  Weird, that usually happens to me with an itchy back.

David Ortiz – 2-for-3 with his 5th and 6th homers as he bats .405 with 20 RBIs.  Of course I should’ve just drafted Ortiz in the 2nd round instead of Giancarlo Stanton.  I will now lock myself in my cry closet.

Jason Hammel – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  His ERA is now at 1.97.  Good thing Matusz was the Orioles starter to watch coming out of Spring Training.  Sideways emoticon with an elbow nudge.

Ryan Braun – 3 homers in Petco with the 2nd one being airmailed, but it still counted.

David Robertson – 1 IP, 3 Ks.  K-Rob’s ERA is 0.00 and WHIP is 0.91, having allowed 7 baserunners in 11 IP to go with his 18 Ks.  He’s owned in 12% of ESPN leagues and he’s headed for a better year than probably at least two of the starters on your fantasy team.

Patrick Corbin – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Isn’t this Patrick Corbin guy the one Carrie bides her time with while she waits for Mr. Big to come to his senses?  She looks like a horse; horses are hot; what else do you need, Mr. Big?  Any the hoo!  In mixed leagues, wake me when Trevor Bauer’s called up.  Or even Tyler Skaggs.  Or Boz Scaggs.

Justin Upton – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer and the Desmond Jennings Special, a slam & legs.  Call a fireplace cause Upton looks like he’s starting to swing some hot lumber!  Can someone give me an AM radio-style bassoon, triangle, horn?

Paul Goldschmidt – 1-for-3 with a steal as he bats .193 and hit cleanup. Pretty appropriate since he’s been dirtying fantasy lineups all year.

Justin Morneau – Left yesterday’s game with a sore wrist.  This Justin, Morneau’s an injury waiting to happen.

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer.  For those who are like, “LaWhere did this come from?”  He hit 38 homers last year in the PCL.  Granted the PCL fills their baseballs with helium, but he’s still got power to spare.

Tony Campana – 0-for-4 with a run and a steal.  When he’s in the dugout, the Cubs hang him from a coat hanger and his legs continue to run.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 12th homer yesterday.  The Padres collectively have 11, Cubs have 8 and Infante has 5.

Juan Nicasio – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  That looks about right for the line you can expect from Nicasio.  Maybe a touch more K and a tad less LOB.

Vance Worley – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks as he was done wrong by his bullpen that gave up his win.  He’s probably suffering from Münchausen Syndrome because of the rest of the starters in the majors.

Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-4 with his 5th homer.  Fine, I picked him up.  I had a gaping hole left by Zimmerman, so, with a heavy heart, I went back to the Pedro Alvarez well.  The worst thing that could’ve happened was I ended up ignoring Alvarez this year because of how burnt I got last year.  The 2nd worst thing that could happen is I get burnt again this year.  Yay.

James McDonald – 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 10 Ks.  There’s the old (once-hyped) McDonald.  Has now strung together back-to-back solid starts with excellent Ks.  I don’t think he’s going to be without his hiccups.

Mike Minor – 6 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 11 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Speaking of hiccups, looking at Minor’s start would cure his owners of them.  I’m guessing with 11 baserunners, seven earned and 9 Ks through 6 and a third, he was pretty unlucky.  Too bad I don’t play in any FIPpin’ leagues that care about luck.

Delmon Young – Suspended for 7 days after an incident where he was allegedly yelling anti-Semitic remarks.  Delmon said he was just playing Words With Friends.

Nolan Reimold has started this season like I thought he’d start the 2009 season.  And the 2010 season.  And the 2011 season.  See a pattern?  If not, I suggest answering C on all standardized tests and lowering your safety school expectations.  It feels like Reimold’s been sleeping on his post-hyper’dom since Branch Rickey was just a twig.  He has 25-ish homer power and 10-ish steal speed.  If he gets on one, he hits 30 homers and steals 15 and is a top 25 outfielder.  If he hits his head on his post-hyper-ness, you drop him.  In my Nolan Reimold fantasy from January, I gave him the line of 65/24/80/.250/10.  Don’t wanna trust January Grey because he’s been known to hit the bottle?  ZiPS updated their projections for Reimold to 65/22/68/.260/10.  So don’t trust me.  But you gotta trust someone in this life.  You can’t go it alone.  Cause when you let people in, the world opens up to you.  I think the preceding was a speech given by Patrick Dempsey in an 80′s movie that was followed by a slow clap.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Santiago Casilla – You know what he possibly gives you this year?  35 saves.  Know what, say, Brett Myers gives you?  25 saves.  We’re Cust kayin’ here, but Casilla should be owned.

Henry Rodriguez – I wish I was in one of the 90% of ESPN leagues where HanK-Rod isn’t owned, but it might be impossible because at least 75% of the ESPN ten-team leagues are one guy who owns all 10 teams with ten alias then goes into the ESPN forums and says, “I’m going to grace you with my presence and answer a few questions.  If you wish to know my credentials, look at my virtual trophies on my virtual mantle on my virtual profile.”

Jake Peavy – Which Peavy are we getting?  The one that’s good when he’s pitching or the one that’s not good at pitching because he’s injured?  Isn’t it clear?  I didn’t say, “Isn’t it the clear?”  Now, now.

Lance Lynn – You know why there’s so many repeat customers in these Buys?  Because people picking up players in ESPN leagues are like De Niro in Awakenings.  Lynn’s pitching well, pick him up and save that fear of success for your real life and leave it out of your fantasy life.

Danny Duffy – A starter with more Ks than innings pitched is all right by me.  Plus, his mom’s name is Muffy.  What’s not to like?  Not rhetorical!  Seriously, tell me.  (I am prepared for this to come back to haunt me on Sunday when he faces the Blue Jays.  I’m looking ahead, young, prematurely balding man!)

Jake Arrieta – Between Krispie getting DL’d and Gardner getting DL’d (about an hour), I owned Arrieta.  I was looking at a way to make my team private, so youse couldn’t see it.  See, I really don’t like taking flyers on O’s SPs and would tell you the same if you asked.  AL East + terrible team = Not a’ight-a.  But Arrieta’s WHIP is intriguing (0.89).  He’s faced two terrible teams, and, keep in mind, I immediately dropped him when I needed another outfielder, but, yeah, I did pick him up.  He’s around a 7-ish K-rate and a high 3 ERA pitcher in the best case scenario.  The way he’s keeping his walks in check right now is something to watch.  If you grab him for the Angels game tomorrow, I’d leave him on my bench in most mixed leagues to see how he does.

Alejandro De Aza – Odd that he has more homers than steals, but that will invert while he still chips in some power.  He’s the new pride of the Dominican Republican.  Or DR Pride, which is not the same as the shirtless guy with the stethoscope and the ass-less chaps.

Luke Scott – I told you to pick him up last week and now he’s owned in 3.5% of ESPN leagues.  We are the three point five percenters!  How’s that for rippling the fantasy baseball world?!  You best recognize!

Mike Trout – On our last podcast, Rudy said he thinks Trout will be up by May 15th.  I think that’s crummy with crackers, but if you’re a Rudy loyalist with a pic in your fro, then you should own Trout right now.

Denard Span – He’s healthy!  That’s all I got.  I picked him up in my RCL because I lost Gardner and was looking for some cheap speed, but, most importantly, Rudy was the one who dropped him, so any chance to rub salt is valid enough for me.  Though waiting for Span to exact any revenge against Rudy is like hiring a contract killer who thinks a spliff is a blunt object.

Matt Carpenter – I just went over him this morning.  Don’t make me go back there!

Chris Davis – This week’s Buy is coming to you from downtown Baltimore, “Our crabs are better than your lady’s!”  At some point, I think the bottom is gonna fall out so bad for Davis that you’ll look up and he’ll be batting .095, but right now he’s hitting, so there’s that.

Mike Aviles – Grab Aviles while Jacoby is D’Ellsburied and your MI spot is as disagreeable as any camel that has ever been on TV or film. (Talk about an animal that needs its own anti-defamation league.  “Let me ask you this, haters of the camel, what other animal is dragging your stupid ass through the desert with no water?  Let’s see you ride on the back of your corgi!”  That’s me as I stump for the hump.)

SELL

Gaby Sanchez – You thought he (she?) had no power in the old (ugly) Marlins ballpark?  Welcome to the new (ugly and large) park!  I wouldn’t drop him (her?) for Jeffrey Loria’s address so you can egg his house, but… Actually, I’d consider that trade-off.   Nah, seriously, I wouldn’t drop him, but maybe you can use him as an artificial sweetener in a trade.

Paul Goldschmidt – This one hurts, because I really did like him in the preseason, but as long as Gibson’s slo-mo arm pumping Overbay into lineup, you need alternatives.  In most leagues, I wouldn’t drop AuShizz out right, but he needs every day playing time for the majority of mixed leagues.

Logan Morrison – We’re pot-committed to Stanton and his wonky knees (wonknee).  I’m not selling him for pennies on the dollar.  Morrison, on the other hand, has a wonknee and he doesn’t have 40 homer power and he’s playing in a stadium where the coach needs binoculars and glow sticks to direct his outfielders where to play.  As he waves glow sticks, Ozzie says, “Oye, Rooster, are the outfielders moving to the right?”  As he looks through binoculars, Joey Cora says, “I think you’re directing the nacho guy in section 7 B.”  Ozzie, “Puta, this is the worst stadium the devil ever puked up!”

As I alluded to in my 3rd baseman posting, first base scares me greatly this year in a deep league format.  Outside the big six – Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, & Mark Teixiera – I see very little reliability from a position that could leave you hurting if you aren’t an owner of one of those guys.  Don’t agree with me?  Well go look at the 1st baseman that come after those 6 on Mock Draft Central to round out your top ten: Konerko, Hosmer, Morse, & Berkman.  Your 11th is Freddie Freeman; the quintessential average first baseman.  I know people want to consider Konerko safe, but he’s 36.  I prefer not to be the first person in line to find out when the wheels come off guys like him.  Then there’s Hosmer – a 22 year old who can’t take a walk.  I like his career long term, but even fangraphs is projecting him around 23/13.  Steals are nice, but I want 30 HRs from my 1st baseman and I want them now!  Round things out with Morse – a person with very little track record though I do kinda trust him – and Berkman.  Hey, if I don’t trust Konerko at 36, why would I trust a guy who had his worst major league season in 2010 and hit 24 of his 31 HRs in the first half of his rebound 2011 campaign who is also 36 and won’t have Pujols in his lineup anymore?  And was that a long sentence or was it just me?  Point being, I do not want to leave the first round without a 1B this year.  Taking Teixiera would most likely ruin my perfect draft, but I would grab him nonetheless.  However, if I could get one of those first 5 this year, I’d feel comfortable taking a risk on Paul Goldschmidt around the 12th.  There are a lot of upside plays later in the draft that I have no problem taking a gamble on, but I want at least one of my first basemen to be an offensive rock for me.

I’ll Avoid

Freddie Freeman - Well duh, ONC, you’ve already said you don’t trust him.  Actually, I didn’t say I have no faith in him, I said he was boring.  Like Gaby Sanchez boring.  But Sanchez’ ADP is 196 while Freeman’s is 120; I called and left a message with mockdraftcentral about this one and they haven’t gotten back with me yet.  Wanted to know if it’s a girls name discount or something.  I also asked them about why guys disappear from the rankings when you filter by position like why I can’t see Berkman and have to rewrite my post because of it.  Don’t they know I have a day job and need to leave for work right now?  Neverthewho!  Some people believe the end of the season was the start of a breakout.  Some people also believe that aliens built Egyptian pyramids.  You can believe whatever you wanna believe.  Just keep it off my History Channel.  I came here for facts!

Ryan Howard – Didn’t have a great season last year then fell down, went boom as the final play of the Phillies playoff run.  He hasn’t played for long but he was a late prospect; dude is 32 coming off a really bad injury.  I think there are better gambles you can make at 176 ADP.

I’ll Go For:

Adam LaRoche - Nestled in the bosom of the the 26th round is a name that many are familiar with from fantasy baseball years past.  LaRoche – which is french for ‘The Roach’, though I don’t know if that’s the bug or the thing you pass around the lava lamp while making philosophical ruminations about Scooby Doo – isn’t sexy, for sure.  He’s a been there, done that kind of guy who gives you 25 HRs and 80 to 90 RBI with a .270 average when healthy.  Considering the health risks of Kendrys Morales (18th round) and Justin Morneau (14th), you’re taking much less risk with his shoulder holding up than you are with the other two.

Chris Davis - Oh yes, I went there.  The hatred of Davis runs deep.  Going back to 2010, he was supposed to be a 30 HR hitter in the middle of a dangerous Texas lineup.  But its hard to stick in a lineup when you strike out 35% of the time.  Though he jacked 21 HRs in 2010, he had a .238 average and showed a lack of patience at the plate with a 5.7% walk rate.  Truthfully, none of these potholes in his game have necessarily changed.  What HAS changed is he’s on a team that doesn’t mind a guy that strikes out 200 times in a season.  If they’re willing to ride Mark Reynolds at 3B while he hits .221, why would they show Davis the door?  Look for 25 HRs, a crap-ton of K’s and don’t expect an average above .250; you shouldn’t be disappointed with finding that with a 297 ADP.

Situation to Monitor: Oakland

They’ve got 4 guys competing for the starter’s role in Oakland this year.  One guy has a great OBP but no power: Daric Barton.  Two of them have great power, ok OBP but a craptacular K rate: Chris Carter & Brandon Allen.  And then there’s Kila Ka’aihue. I just can’t quit this man.  Kila seems to fit everything that Moneyball is supposed to be about: I get on base via walks or I hit a HR.  Kansas City only brought him up last year because they needed someone to cover first while they groomed Hosmer’s game and his scroatee (that’s my term for goatees grown by young men who can’t really grow them.  They’re scruffy lookin.  Scruffy + Goatee = Scroatee.  Get it?  Yeah, whatever to you too!  PS, don’t go look up the Urban Dictionary on that one.  Or do if you need reverse psychology).  Back to the point: That type of confidence in a player doesn’t breed…well, confidence in a player.  This one should play out fairly quickly in spring training but my bitcoins are on the Kila monster winning the job.

For those fantasy players who play in standard mixed leagues, the hot stove season is a time of excitement. These owners can just sit back and enjoy the player moves, secure in the knowledge that regardless of what happens there will not be a huge impact on gameplay. Sure some players will change jerseys, some jobs will be gained or lost because of moves, but by and large the player market remains the same.

Contrast that to fantasy owners in AL or NL-only leagues, who view the hot stove season with trepidation. They watch these same player moves closely, aware of the fact that superstars may become undraftable at the drop of a hat. Despite this risk, over the course of time these moves tend to balance out, with relatively equal numbers of players coming and going from each league. However, this season is different. To use a tired cliché, a “perfect storm” of destruction has afflicted the hitters of the National League. Similar to flipping a coin ten times and having it come up tails every time, seemingly every big ticket hitting item left the NL for greener pastures (and a ton of even greener cash).

No position was seemingly hit harder than the first base position in the National League. This position was traditionally held by perennial 1st round picks like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but both of those studs have packed their bags for the “other” league. Consequently, the position has understandably taken a huge hit in terms of talent. Fortunately, one superstar remains in the NL, one Joey Votto. In fact, Votto is the only player at his position drafted in the top 40. I would go so far as to say Votto is probably worth the #2 overall pick in such leagues (after Matt Kemp), because no position has a wider gap between the best and second best player than 1st base.

The fact that the second player on this list is Michael Morse should be very telling about the state of the position. However, that does not mean that your 1B position is “Votto or Bust.” Morse himself had a breakout season last year, and fellow youngsters Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman join him in the tier below Votto. I’d be perfectly happy starting any of these guys for my NL-only squads, especially at ADPs ranging from 50-70, but perceived scarcity may drive their price higher than I’m willing to pay.

As for the individual players here, who you will pick comes down to personal preference and team needs. Goldschmidt has the most raw power of the bunch, but his swing also probably has the most holes. Freeman, on the other hand, is a great contact hitter, but he may not surpass his 21 home runs from 2011 until he puts more meat on his rather lanky frame. Morse is a bit of a mystery, showing slightly above average power in a long minor league career, but when given the chance at the major league level he produced a nifty 31 long balls in 2011. He’s first on the list in ADP, but I see a higher ceiling with the other two guys. Again, just a matter of personal preference.

If high-risk high-reward veterans are more your speed than the youngsters above, then Ryan Howard and Ike Davis are your answer. Both face uncertain 2012 statuses due to ankle injuries (though Howard’s outlook is considerably bleaker than Davis’s), and both are coming at a substantial discount from their full health prices. Recall that Howard has been a power stalwart at his position for nearly a decade, and that Ike Davis had a nice 2010 and was off to a great start in 2011 before the Mets training staff struck him down with a bum ankle. You would do well to have insurance making one of these picks, but it could well win you a league if the cards break just right.

If you miss out on the above candidates, uninspiring veterans seem to be the rule. Guys like Adam LaRoche, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, James Loney, Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff and Gaby Sanchez.  Some of these guys may well outproduce players I have listed above, but it is a matter of ceiling and floor that lands them here. Berkman had a great 2011, but at his age fall off the cliff risk is a real possibility, lowering the floor for me. Even Gaby Sanchez, the guy from this group that I would probably like the most, has a pretty low ceiling, albeit with a higher floor.

This list has brought us past the top 12 1st baseman, so you’ve probably already seen the first baseman you will end up starting. Admit it, it’s not as bleak as you thought it would be, is it? That is not, however, to say that you will be happy with who you end up with. So what are you going to do if you find yourself staring down the barrel of James Loney? The answer lies on the final names on our list- guys like Mat Gamel, Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo. Gamel, seemingly out of chances in 2011, has been given one more chance to prove that he is not a bust as a top prospect. Rizzo and Belt flopped in their major league debuts, but I am not ready to take the bloom off the rose of these prospects. Belt’s 20-20 potential at 1B is very real and very rare indeed, while Rizzo’s power definitely plays now that he has left Petco for Wrigley. I would not necessarily start one of these guys, but I like them as late round picks in redraft leagues that have upside to pan out. Finally, a more creative manager may try to handcuff one of the injury prone guys above and hope for a setback.

I am not going to sugar coat it, losing Fielder and Pujols has left a huge gap in talent and turned it into a scarce position. Take consolation in the fact that every team is in the same boat in this deflated market. If you are lucky enough to land Votto, then smile and know that you are ahead of the game. If not, then 1st base may indeed prove an adventure. However, there’s nothing more satisfying than coming out on top of a challenging position- it’s part of why we play the game. Let’s just hope we all fare better than George Clooney in navigating this perfect storm.