Fantasy Baseball Advice

Even King Mo, Thy Saver of the Throne, Sire of Sutter, Haver of Fingers, Tester of the Quiz, Nowhere Near the Stench of the Wickman is not immune to the closepocalypse that is upon us.  The plague of ninth inning locusts strikes all that cross thee path!  What?  I was pouring out some Olde English for the brothers who aren’t here.  Mariano Rivera was hurt shagging fly balls.  Last person hurt like that was Jenna Jameson.  It didn’t look good, as he was carted off in pain, and it turned out even worse, as he was diagnosed with a torn ACL.  David Robertson should’ve been owned already, but here’s a real reason to, you save vulture.  This is frustrating not because I owned Rivera.  I don’t; I don’t believe in $12 Salads, but someone is lucking into Robertson, who could end up one of the best closers in baseball this year.  If you’re really hurting for saves, it’s worth a speculative grab to pick up Rafael Soriano.  The Yankees would have to be five cookies short of a potential Biggest Loser contestant’s breakfast to skip K-Rob for Soriano, but he does have closer experience.  Whatever that means nowadays.  After the closepocalypse, half the league’s pitchers have closer experience.  Juan Cruz has it now!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Pablo Sandoval – Wanna hear something freaky?  You have a third nipple!?  No, Random Italicized Voice.  Almost exactly one year ago, Pablo Sandoval broke the hamate bone on his other hand.  (And less freaky is Ryan Zimmerman was also injured that week.)  I suggest next year, for the week of Cinco de Mayo, Pablo Sandoval go out of town.  Maybe Cozumel.  Have some margaritas, win some wet t-shirt contests, have unprotected sex — Really get the full Mexico experience!  Then return a week later healthy.  The fact that Sandoval broke his hamate bone two years in a row makes me think he should have them removed (then BBQ them and sell them at a county fair).  The surgery is not unheard of, Tabata had the hamate bone removal surgery done in the minor leagues (then used it like a wishbone and hoped his wife would stop thinking she’s remaking Raising Arizona.  BTW, his wife is 46 years old?  And Tabata is 23?  A Latin 23 may not do this guy justice, which is the key word.).  If Sandoval keeps the hamate bone, then I’d be concerned this could keep happening.  Either way, he’s out for 6 weeks.

Conor Gillaspie – Should replace Sandoval for the majority of the playing time.  Conor Gillaspie plays 3rd sack.  Me myself, I like to max.  Red-Bone booties, I’m out to wax!  Seriously, what did we do without Google for song lyrics?  Did everyone sound like my uncle who sings three words of every song then mumbles the rest?  Mumble, mumble, mumble, I can’t go for that.  No can do.  Gillaspie has a little bit of nothing going for himself outside of average.  He was hitting .356 in Triple-A.  That was inflated by his BABIP, but he should be able to hit around .280.  He has next to no power, and his speed isn’t that impressive.  You can do better, Marvin’s Room. (Maybe the best song of the last year.)

Heath Bell – Ozzie says Bell is still his closer.  He also praised Castro and disparaged gays, so, ya know, grain of salt.

Edward Mujica – Recorded the save yesterday but Cishek (who I think will get saves) and Bell were unavailable.

Brandon Morrow – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Not only did he throw a shutout, but he didn’t throw any walks.  Can he pitching coach Scherzer?

Albert Pujols – 0-for-3, dropping his average to .202.  Can’t they pinch-hit Maicer Izturis for him?

Ernesto Frieri – Yesterday, Albert (not Pujols, the writer for our site) called Frieri the “closer of the future” for the Padres.  Then Frieri was traded to the Angels.  I don’t think he’s the closer of the future for the Angels, but “setup man of the future” doesn’t have much of a ring to it.

Adam LaRoche – Sat out yesterday with oblique soreness.  That dreaded, extremely vague soreness again!  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss a few games.

Ross Detwiler – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was in last week’s Buy.  Don’t make me go back there!

Joe Blanton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In related news, Halladay left the Phillies for a few days for a personal reason.  He didn’t say why except, “Yo, Joe Blanton got this.”

Laynce Nix – 2-for-3 with a homer.  Superfluous Y’s rejoice!  In chorus, “Because!”

Coco Crisp – Headed to the DL with an inner ear issue.  Coco Crisp says he keeps hearing a snap, crackle, pop.  In his place, Michael Taylor is joining the A’s, but no one seems thrilled about ever playing Taylor in the majors.  Pretty ironic that he was once traded for Brett Wallace, though no one outside of the British really knows what irony is.

Randall Delgado – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s looked like anything but the top prospect he is until this game.  I’m not buying quite yet in most mixed leagues, but I’m watching very carefully.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 IP, 1 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He looks like a safe, non-threatening number five starter without too much upside or downside.  Kinda like the pitching equivalent to doctor’s office music.  “Hey, while I have this molar extracted, what’s that playing?”  “It’s Vogelsong.”

Jason Kipnis – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 4th homer.  His bumper sticker reads, “Why can’t a nosh be posh?  Kipnis!”  His Jason Kipnis fantasy reads like that.

Pedro Alvarez – 2-for-4 with another homer.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Hint:  He’s not a sell.

Andrew McCutchen – Left yesterday’s game with a stomach bug.  Hopefully it’s not a tapeworm.  Those things are nasty.  This girl I know decided to cure her own salmon and left it on the counter encased in salt.  Well, flies dropped some larvae in the lox and she had worm squirts for days.  Okay, when I started that story it seemed appropriate.

Erik Bedard – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Eleven Ks over 5 innings is nice.  His 37 Ks over 34 innings is very nice.  His health, well, it’s good for now.  I’m not a big fan because every time I seem to get invested he breaks down, but his Ks have me intrigued, and whenever I say intrigued in my head I hear the Comic Book Guy.

Jose Tabata – 3-for-5 with a steal.  He raised his average over 100 points in the last ten games.  He’s not going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Wanna know why?  Cause I’m telling you now (actually I told you two days ago).  He’s hot.  Pick him up.  Go now.  This post will be here when you return.

Chone Figgins – 0-for-4 with his average falling to .189.  They really need to DFA this no-longer-young brother.  And lose Smoak while you’re at it too, M’s.  In fact, start over with Carp, Ackley, Montero, Seager and Ken Griffey Jr. Jr.

Allen Craig – 4 for his last 9 with 3 RBIs.  Potatoes to chips, this doode came back from the DL like a flaming ball of yarn.  See, if yarn’s on fire, it would roll out and the hotness would spread, which in hitting terms is good.  Makes total sense.

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  The Cubs shouldn’t be thinking about how to make room for Rizzo.  They should be thinking about how to erect a giant statue of LaHair, then accidentally tip it over on Alfonso Soriano.  Two birds, one stone (or granite).

Ryan Dempster – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  First game back from the DL + In a tough park for pitchers +  Against a tough offensive team = Chumlee.  Hmm, math is wrong there.  Meant to add up to SONAVABENCH!

Carlos Marmol – Zero outs recorded, 3 unearned runs (1 earned) and 4 baserunners.  There’s no saying exactly what’s wrong with Marmol, but he’s not himself (dur!).  Sveum says he could replace Marmol from the closer role (dur-dur!).  I want to say bench Marmol in most leagues, but he looks like he’s headed for a trip to the Disgraceful List.  Rafael Dolis would be the pickup, but he’s been far from spectacular.  He hasn’t been craptacular though either.  Kerry Wood isn’t a bad specloselation.  James Russell is a deeper SAGNOF specloselation pick.  He’s been great so far, but he’s a lefty.  It’s basically a total mess of a closerousel shituation.  Now I will await Guinness Book of World Records to crown this blurb for the most portmanteaus ever used in a single blurb.  *finger tap*  Waiting…

Jason Heyward is the kind of player I love in OPS leagues. He draws a lot of walks and hits enough extra-base hits to raise his OPS league value well above that captured in standard 5×5 leagues. Following his manager-ordered off-year in 2011, J-Hey appears to be himself again. While his BB% is below and his K% is above his career averages, I’m not worried and view it largely due to a more aggressive approach since he’s currently hitting everything in sight. Expecting an .850 OPS this year is not unreasonable, considering he did just that in 2010, at the age of 20! I’ll conservatively project a line of .370/.460/.830 for the rest of this season, with upside for a little OBP and much more slugging.

Matt Holliday has always been a reliable .900 OPS player, but this year I’m worried. Yes, a regression in his BABIP will improve his overall line, but there are many reasons for concern. First, his speed is nonexistent, as evidenced by his 2012 speed score of 1.4, also known as Bengie Molina’s career average. Next, his O-Swing% and O-Contact% are well above his career averages, meaning he is swinging at and making more contact with pitches outside the strike zone. Finally, he is walking at roughly half his career rate. Small sample caveats aside, this year Holliday is slower, less patient, and making worse contact. Best case scenario, I’d project a rest of season line at .370/.490/.860, which is still great. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle to maintain his end of season OPS above .800.

Eric Hosmer was about as hyped as they come this year, and rightly so. He breezed through the minor leagues and maintained an OPS near .800 as a 21-year-old rookie. Despite currently having an OPS near .700, there are reasons for optimism. Relative to 2011, his BB% increased while his K% has held constant. Additionally, he’s hitting a similar percentage of line drives, flyballs, and groundballs relative to 2011. These factors suggest that his extremely low BABIP, may be contributing to his struggles. This leads me to project Hosmer to have an OPS above last year’s .800 for the rest of the season. I would count on a .350/.470/.820 line, with upside for .360/.500/.860 if he turns things around soon. Even if his struggles continue, I promise you this year Hosmer will not have a bigger bust than Billy Butler. Speaking of who’s got the moobs like Butler…

Pablo Sandoval is always hungry for more. Kung Fu Panda has been a high OPS player throughout his career and this year appears to be no different. He’s an interesting kind of high OPS player because he doesn’t have a relatively high walk rate, but his excellent batting average props up his OBP to respectable levels. His slugging, aside from his down year in 2010, has been elite and I see no reason for this to change. He seems to be as safe as they come in OPS leagues, with a baseline near .350/.550/.900. An OPS of .900 would rank him atop the league leaders and is particularly valuable at third base, where he would likely trail only Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista.

Chase Headley has been taking a walk on the mild side. Over 20% of his plate appearances have resulted in a walk this year, representing a tremendous increase from 11.8% in 2011 and his career average near 10%. In addition, he is swinging less at and making less contact with pitches outside the strike zone. I believe these numbers indicate some real improvement in patience at the plate and Headley will be able to maintain his OBP around .370, which he sustained last year. Clearly his .600 slugging is far from sustainable, and largely a product of a HR/FB above 25%, but I could see a slight improvement from his career average of .400 slugging. For the rest of the season, I’ll project a .370/.400/.770 as the floor, with room for some improvement in slugging.

David Ortiz’s hits don’t lie. The Latin 36-year-old has been a bright spot amid the slow start by the Red Sawks. Though he lacks positional flexibility (or any flexibility for that matter), he is a fantastic asset in an OPS league. His insanely high OPS is largely being driven by a BABIP near .500. Once this regresses, I believe he will still be able to approach his 2010 numbers. Since arriving at Fenway, Big (Grand) Papi has only had one year (2009) without an OPS near or above .900. I see no reason for this year to be any different, despite my annual concerns about his age. I’d conservatively project a line of .360/.500/.860 for the rest of the season, with upside for much more slugging. Speaking of players who continually elude Father Time…

Paul Konerko has been in the catbird seat waiting for duck snorts, or whatever Hawk’s been saying. I’ve given up understanding how, after posting an OPS below .850 from 2007-09, he’s produced an OPS above .900 since 2010. Despite being a non-Latin 36-year-old, Konerko is off to a roaring start this year. His near 1.000 OPS is aided by a high BABIP, although I’m confident he’ll remain an exceptional player when this regresses. I’ll keep my eye on his BB%, which is less than his last couple years, but he probably isn’t worried about walking when everything he makes contact with falls for a hit. I’ll project him to approach last year’s numbers for the rest of the season with a .380/.500/.880 baseline that could result in more slugging while he resides at the fountain of youth.

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

First off, thanks Grey for this opportunity. Second, please be gentle, Razzballers…this is my first time.

I’ve now played in a 12 team yahoo mixed league where we start two at each infield position and five in the OF (LF,CF,RF,OF,OF) for over five years. In this type of league setting, it’s much harder to cobble together a strong team throughout the year. You don’t find the Alex Gordons of the world out in the FA pool. If they start for their team, they’re getting drafted and chances are if they’re rehabbing and will be back ‘later in the spring’ – I’m looking at YOU Kendry(s) Morales – their backup is drafted as well. The late rounds of these types of leagues are integral to having a good year which makes it vital to know what players are being virtually ignored by their ADP.  Sleepers become a regular part of your starting lineup so you’ve got to dig deeper than the headlines to find those late round gems. Sometimes it’s a player that everyone assumes is washed up – read: Lance Berkman – or a player coming off an injury that everyone has forgotten like Asdrubal Cabrera.  You can’t drop Mike Morse in April and expect to find him in May when he picks it up.  You’ve got to look ahead and take those risks early or in the draft if you wanna survive.  With that out of the way, lets start with a review of 3B.

Third base is an interesting position for 2012.  It will have a new top 25 caliber SS added to it by the end of April in both yahoo and ESPN leagues in Hanley Ramirez and may have the top 1B in baseball in the fold by May if the defensive blasphemy experiment goes well in Detroit for Miguel Cabrera.  The first 10 of the Razzball top 20 third baseman  are well priced and won’t make you want to pull your hair out.  If/when Miggy and HanRam join, you might put it at 12 useful 3B for the year.  From a depth perspective, this to me is the least worrisome IF position to fill that has the ability for a lot of great pairings in leagues that start two.  If you’re drafting Jose Bautista or Evan Longoria, I’d willingly hold my breath all the way down to Edwin Encarnacion while I bulk up at thinner positions such as SS and 1B (yes, 1B is thin this year and yes I fully expect to get flack for that statement).  That said, I don’t see myself drafting a top tier 3B because of the abundance of useful ones. Waiting until round 5 on for 3B allows you to bulk up at 1B, OF, 2B and SS.  In redraft leagues, I’ll be targeting a combo of these third baseman: Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, & Mark Reynolds.  My preferred path is Sandoval with Reynolds, but won’t argue with Youk in replacement of Pablo in this scenario.  Both should counter Reynolds BA drain while netting you 55~60 combined HRs.  My only hesitance with Youk – along with A-Rod, Aramis, & Zimmerman – are their health history.  In leagues where each team already owns two 3B, finding a 3rd one to clean up when those guys go down is tough.  These players handcuff you into drafting Swiss army knives like Emilio Bonifacio or Mike Aviles, something I prefer not to do as these players are priced for their eligibility, not their skill set.

I’ll Avoid:

Michael Young – His overall 2011 line seems like a nice 3B to fall back on in the 6th round until you look a little closer.  Despite slugging .474 and having 106 RBIs, he only had 11 HRs.  He also had a career high BABIP  in his age 34 season. Since he’s not Forever Young, that means he’s 35 this year.  I’d rather take a chance that Prado comes close to that line in the 16th round before I draft Young.

David Freese - His upside is .300 20/80/80/5 over 150 or 160 games.  Considering he’s more brittle than the paper the constitution was written on, I’d rather take Moustakas 5 rounds later while he pimps his ride for someone else.

I’ll go for:

Mike Moustakas – It’s like the person typing about David Freese knew exactly what was coming next!  He has struggled at the beginning of every new level of his career and last year was no different.  I’m willing to believe in  his August thru September line for this year in the 19th round as my secondary 3B.

Brent Morel – Though his 2011 was all over the place, he seemed to find his power stroke in the second half belting 8 of his 10 HRs in Sept/Oct.  He’s not going to hit much higher than .260, but could give you 20 HRs.  Hey, in the 23rd round [insert fungus joke here].

3B Situation to monitor: Colorado

We’ve got Casey Blake at the hot corner for the Rockies this year.  Seriously, should someone that’s 38 not named Kate Beckinsale be at anything called the hot corner?  But I digress, Colorado has what they believe to be their 3B of the future in Nolan Arenado moving up to AA this year.  Casey has already recognized and accepted his role of mentor for whenever Arenado arrives.  Colorado does not shy away from bringing prospects straight up from AA – as Juan Nicasio from last year shows – so don’t be surprised to see Nolan with the ballclub in June.  Draft and stash accordingly.

In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.