Fantasy Baseball Advice

Oh, no, he dint!  Oh, yes, I did!  David Ortiz got stamped with the schmohawk label and shoved into the overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball thingamajiggywitit.  How’s dem apples?  Sour?  Good, they’re supposed to be.  Ortiz doesn’t get to taste my Delicious apples.  With Facebook’s 25 Inane Things About Yourself That No One Cares About, Not Even Your Mother making the rounds, I figured I’d crib that shizz for David Ortiz.  Only I’m going to do one thing, because 25 is a ridiculously large number.  I can’t even count that high when I’m drunk.  And right now I’m drunk on hate!  For Ortiz.  Not you.  You I like.  Anyway, why’s David Ortiz overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball?

David Ortiz is old for players of his girth.  Take Mo Vaughn, for instance. (I take Mo Vaughn everywhere and he always finds his way home — oofa!)  Big Mo was knocking down Cask ‘n Flagon Sammy A’s with the best of them until he no longer was.  Look at Mo Vaughn’s most similar by age. (BTW, do you ever find yourself losing like 3 hours of a day in the Baseball-Reference site?  Yeah, me too.)

Before there was Big Papi there was Big Mo…. It’s sad, but true.  Mo Vaughn took a pretty major dump after the age of 31.  Ortiz’s age 30 year was 54/119/.332 then, at age 31, he went 35/117/.332.  Last year at age 32, Ortiz went 23/89/.264.  This year he’s going to be a Latin 33.  Mo Vaughn’s career end was rushed along by injuries.  Um, Ortiz has been healthy?  In Spring Training, Ortiz has already been complaining of shoulder soreness.  Then you throw in Ortiz has no position eligibility…. Ugh, people.  Seriously.  What do you want from me?  My last Hot Pocket?  Just do me a favor and avoid David Ortiz in your 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

At the age of 29 in the year two-zero-zero-six, Travis Hafner went 100/42/117/.308.  MVP numbers, for sure.  If you were sitting behind Hafner at a movie, you didn’t even mind that his head was blocking half the screen because the numbers were that good.  You briefly considered amending the North Dakota Wikipedia page to add Hafner above Maris.  You even tried entering Pronk into the baby name discussion with your wife.  So what happened?  Is Travis Hafner even worth considering in 2009 for fantasy?

At this point, the only advantage to owning the Project Donkey would be to strap him to a large chain and use his noggin to knock down the Excaliber in Vegas.  The 2009 fantasy schmohawk posts have been used thus far for overrated players.  Honestly, Hafner’s barely rated, let alone overrated.  But I threw the schmohawk tag on him because of how badly he Pronk’d me last year.  Not to mention, he hasn’t done well since 2006.  You’re going to clog up your Utility spot with someone who MIGHT hit 25/90/.275.  (Caps are for emphasis and those that might be reading this from across the room.)  We’re talking about someone who hasn’t hit well in two seasons.  His 2007 was crizz-ap and he was healthy.  What, you need me to stand behind you while you’re drafting and grumble under my breath while you hover the cursor over Hafner?  Cause I will do it.  Now everyone loves a good nickname as much as the next guy.  So I understand you like the nickname Pronk, but c’mon, man, don’t draft Travis Hafner.  If you do, you’ll give me an aneurysm.  You want that on your conscience?

Oh, no, he didn’t! I did and why are you talking like a guest from The Ricki Lake Show (God rest her talk show.)  That’s right; Cliff Lee is being put in the 2009 fantasy baseball overrated schmohawk box never to be seen again.  If you had Cliff Lee last year, you know what I’m about to say, so skip ahead to the paragraph that starts, “First off…”  Last year, Cliff Lee was the bomb-diggity as the kids said about twelve years ago.  Cliff Lee was the Lenny to your team’s Squiggy.  He was the happy on your ending.   Cliff Lee was so Hey-I-need-a-flashlight-this-guy-is-so-lights-out-right-now last year it was kinda ridiculous.  But why are people shunning Cliff Lee in their 2009 fantasy baseball leagues?  Does anyone know?  A frequent commenter, IowaCubs, recently witnessed this mock draft IM exchange:

IowaCubs: “Why is Cliff Lee falling to the 9th round”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “b/c he sucks.”
RedSUKSballs: “Yeah… totally gonna suck this year”
IowaCubs: “Why does he suck?”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “b/c he can’t repeat, okay jerk?”
Scuffed Balls: “I only drafted him cuz it was on auto.”
Brett’s Illegal KY’d Bat: “I heard he had a gd year bc of yer mom.”
Twisted Testicles: “LOL!!!!!!!!”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “LOL… GO AHEAD AND DRAFT HIM JERK”
IowaCubs: “Can’t he repeat like 90% of last year and still be ok?”
Scuffed Balls: “LOL”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “lol… you should be in my league…lol”
Brett’s Illegal KY’d Bat: “LOL”
RedSUCKballs: “that’s funny”

So if this exchange of trying not to be too crude and not quite that clever names is any indication, people are avoiding Cliff Lee, but they’re not that sure why.  So what can we expect of Cliff Lee in 2009 for fantasy baseball?

First off, a big Wassup to everyone that skipped ahead and didn’t read that other nonsense.  You didn’t miss much, just some superlatives and shizz.  Last year, Cliff Lee won 22 games in 23 quality starts.  Let’s just say, that is a pretty significantly lucky number of Wins for the amount of QS’s Lee had.  He could easily win 15 games in 2009.  I huge difference in value.

Cliff Lee’s K/9 ratio last year was 6.85, a solid number, but it’s not going to produce K numbers that you want from a fantasy ace.  It’s a ratio that places him 49th last year for starters just ahead of Mussina.  Last year, Lee had 170 Ks, that number works.  But in 2009 if he doesn’t pitch 223.1 innings, he’s not going to come close to 170 Ks.  And 223.1 innings is a lot of innings.  I wouldn’t bet on more than 200 innings.

Then what really kills Cliff Lee for 2009 is his fly balls didn’t go out last year.  In 2008, Cliff Lee’s home runs per fly balls ratio was 5.1%.  To give you a rough idea of how low this is, Peavy, the guy who calls Petco home, has a career HR/FB of 9.7.  In other words, Lee will give up more home runs in 2009.  The good thing is Lee’s career HR/FB is 8.9%.  The other good thing is Lee has great control.  His K/BB is superb, especially considering his K/9.  But, wait, this is supposed to be about how Cliff Lee is overrated.  Yes, he is and will be, but he’s not completely unusable.  You just need to keep expectations in check.  Cliff Lee is a 15 win, 3.75 ERA pitcher, which makes him a lot closer to Derek Lowe with a spotty track record than Tim Lincecum.

In fantasy baseball, it’s imperative to trade away overrated players before they lose their luster and trade for underrated players. Then there’s simply the rated ones. If this reads vaguely familiar, it’s because I’m cribbing Chuck Klosterman, who I think is brilliant. Here’s the relevant quote to better understand what follows:

If you are the kind of person who talks about music too much, there are two words that undoubtedly play an integral role in your workaday lexicon: “overrated” and “underrated.” This is because those two sentiments pop up in 90 percent of all musical discussions.

He goes on to list bands that are overrated (Wilco, Sonic Youth) or underrated (Duran Duran, Tortoise), coming finally to bands that simply rated, which are no more or less than their reviews (The Beatles). Klosterman’s theory also applies for fantasy baseball. Let’s look at some overrated, underrated and rated players.

OVERRATED

Ryan Braun – As I said earlier today, “I had Braun 22 overall. It’s not like I had him between Hank Blalock and David Ross. I think his average is below .285 and he’s below 15 steals. He’s basically Carlos Lee with 3B eligibility and without the track record. Carlos Lee does Braun’s thing for 7 years and Braun does it for four months and Braun should go ten spots before him? I just don’t get it.” When you put a player twenty-two overall and people say you are unfairly down on him, that player is the definition of overrated. (BTW, I have a picture of Jesus in my office and it’s signed, “Grey, Thanks for steering me away from Ryan Braun. You are a Fantasy God. Love, Your Savior. P.S. What do you think about Lackey for Alex Gordon? I’m good on starters, but have Cust as my Utility.”)

Ryan Zimmerman – Before the Anti-Defamation League of Ryans contacts me, I swear I have no prejudice towards the name Ryan. I even just picked up Ryan Franklin in a league and I’ve eaten at Ryan Gosling’s Moroccan Restaurant — the couscous was overcooked, but the bastilla was good. Then again, who’s ever had a bad bastilla? Someone who puts catsup on egg noodles and calls it pasta, that’s who.

Dustin McGowan – He threw too many innings last year. If you like math — Pitcher who has a good season + overworked = overrated. (More math problems, MTV reality shows = mindless wonderfulness. Republicans = Democrats. Hispanics + peanut butter and jelly sandwiches = Unhappy Hispanics.)

Any AL Starter – Hater Bell covered this in this post. I don’t like trading apples for apples (starter for starter, third basemen for third basemen, etc.), but I can almost get behind a trade like Lackey and Cliff Lee for Wainwright and Maine. In fact, I likey. Hey, I just made a hypothetical trade with myself.

Any Closer – Think of them as a necessary evil and you’ll be better off. I love to do trades like Mariano Rivera for Josh Hamilton then turn around and trade Josh Hamilton for Trevor Hoffman and Matt Capps then turn around and trade Capps for Victorino. Closers are like girls. You will overvalue them at first, grow to despise them, wish you traded them for their sister, not understand how they can get over you so fast when you drunkenly call them at three in the morning. Finally, you find a replacement then get a sex tape in the mail of your ex with your best friend time dated to the afternoon of your one year anniversary. Or maybe that’s me. Anyway, don’t get too attached.

UNDERRATED

Any Setup Man – Rudy claims he taught me how to use middle men many years ago. I don’t remember it, but maybe. Or maybe that’s his consolation for losing to me last year. And three years ago. And four years ago.

Any Big-Bellied 1st Basemen that is Currently Struggling – These guys could go 100/40/100 in their sleep. Howard’s average might leave something to be desired, but he’s a .265 hitter. What, you wanted a fat Ichiro?

Any Padres Pitcher – I could have a 4.50 ERA in Petco and I throw like a girl.

Aaron Cook – He’s a ground ball pitcher. It’s hard to hit ground balls out of the yard.

Any NL Starter – See 5 3/4 inches above.

Me – I think I’m good for about seven to eight posts a week. Maybe 500 to 700 words per post. Everyone has off days, but I think at the end of the season, you’ll be better off with me than without. And I can beat you in checkers. (Union County Checker Champion grades 5 thru 7. That horn is twenty years old and I’m still tooting it.)

Shawn Hill – As someone who has tried to beat the drum about about this guy, I can tell his fan club is not well-attended. In one of my leagues, I tried to trade Hill for Stephen Drew when Tulo went down. That trade got shot down quicker than David Eckstein trying to get on a roller coaster.

Melky Cabrera – Considering the Yankees hype machine it’s weird to find any Yankee on this list, but somehow people ain’t feeling Melky. Even after being crowned the best name in baseball according to Larry King.

RATED

Eric Gagne – Backne isn’t on the juice anymore and it’s hurting him. Karma is your mother-in-law.

Nick Punto – Might even be unrated.

Carlos Lee – Everyone knows what you’re going to get.

Mike Cameron – 20/20/.250 for like forty years in a row. He was the only person who got caught sipping the cheating juice and no one lowered one single prediction.

Milton Bradley – Predictable, injury-prone loose cannon. I wonder if Cliff Floyd and him are buds. That’s one carpool I would not want to be party to. (”Milton, can you grab my Mary J. Blige CD from the backseat?” “Sure, Cliff, is it next to your diaphragm?” Car screeches to the side of the road, they jump out to fight only to simultaneously pull a hammy.)