I already went over a Josh Hamilton overrated post, but I guess people were off reading his inspirational autobiography, “Baseball Between the Lines.” So I brought out the pirated Photoshop for a quick, “Don’t make me come back there!” Okay, this wonky .jpg is a bastardized Hype Cycle. If you don’t know what a Hype Cycle is, it’s because you didn’t go to Harvard. Don’t worry, neither did I. If I had, you would’ve heard about it a gazillion times. A hype cycle is this thingamaboob that tells you the life cycle of hype for certain technologies. Or technologiez, if you’re under 14. Now I took this thingamaboob and I reinvented it for Josh Hamilton and the schmohawkian hype that is following him around as we head toward your 2009 fantasy baseball draft day. So let’s break down this Josh Hamilton fantasy baseball .jpeg-a-roo-ski into the different stages of hype, shall we?
No More Crack Smoking – This stage in the Josh Hamilton hype cycle is more or less self-explanatory. Josh Hamilton stops smoking crack. As he continues up the curve, he gets near 100 RBIs by the 2008 ASB, he stays healthy and he helps a giraffe give birth. The last one is still unverified.
2009 Drafts – The peak of the hype. Everyone goes caca-cuckoo over Josh Hamilton in the 2009 preseason. One woman from Lubbock, Texas calls in to the Vatican saying there’s an image of Josh Hamilton on her toast. All of this leads to Josh Hamilton being severely overrated and he’s drafted in the 1st round of some 2009 drafts.
Falls back to Earth, Hits the DL – Sometime during the 2009 season Josh Hamilton fails to live up to the hype and his owners wonder where it all went wrong. Then he gets hurt.
He’s a solid OF, but not Jimmy Jesus – At the end of the season, fantasy baseball owners look at Josh Hamilton through slightly less than rosy glasses and come to the conclusion that he’s good, just not a 1st or even 2nd rounder. He’s Jason Bay’s numbers with a feel-good story attached to his name.
I decided to take a peeksie at Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Pick board and grab nine players that I thought were overrated from their top 75. If MDC could talk, I think even it would agree that some of these draft picks make no sense. I tried to grab at least one overrated player from every round if you were doing a ten team 2009 fantasy draft. There were more than nine overrated players by my calculations, but I didn’t want to spoil the top 20 lists that are on their way this coming Monday. Muahahahaha… Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2009 fantasy baseball:
9) Josh Hamilton - Why is he in the 1st round? Cause he kicked crack? You people need to chillax.
17) B.J. Upton – I like a BJ as much as the next guy, but a low-priced one is even nicer. Upton’s a third round pick.
34) Jason Bay – I think this pick means people aren’t sure what to make of a lot of other guys. Your inner monologue, “Oh, shoot, I don’t know if this Carlos Quentin guy is for real… Screw it, I’m grabbing J-Bay.”
43) Russell Martin – Position scarcity-schmarcity. Last year, Martin was outdone by Lastings Milledge and Garrett Atkins in a terrible year.
53) Magglio Ordonez – This is another J-Bay type pick. People are scared of Nate McLouth so they’re going with the reliable and yawnstipating Mags.
65) Cliff Lee – Buh-buh-buh– But he won the Cy Young!
68) Garrett Atkins – If you follow his home run regression from year to year, he’s due for 17 in 2009. And he lost Holliday. Yay.
75) Chone Figgins – This pick will shore up your sixth place finish. Congratulations.
In fantasy baseball, it’s imperative to trade away overrated players before they lose their luster and trade for underrated players. Then there’s simply the rated ones. If this reads vaguely familiar, it’s because I’m cribbing Chuck Klosterman, who I think is brilliant. Here’s the relevant quote to better understand what follows:
If you are the kind of person who talks about music too much, there are two words that undoubtedly play an integral role in your workaday lexicon: “overrated” and “underrated.” This is because those two sentiments pop up in 90 percent of all musical discussions.
He goes on to list bands that are overrated (Wilco, Sonic Youth) or underrated (Duran Duran, Tortoise), coming finally to bands that simply rated, which are no more or less than their reviews (The Beatles). Klosterman’s theory also applies for fantasy baseball. Let’s look at some overrated, underrated and rated players.
OVERRATED
Ryan Braun – As I said earlier today, “I had Braun 22 overall. It’s not like I had him between Hank Blalock and David Ross. I think his average is below .285 and he’s below 15 steals. He’s basically Carlos Lee with 3B eligibility and without the track record. Carlos Lee does Braun’s thing for 7 years and Braun does it for four months and Braun should go ten spots before him? I just don’t get it.” When you put a player twenty-two overall and people say you are unfairly down on him, that player is the definition of overrated. (BTW, I have a picture of Jesus in my office and it’s signed, “Grey, Thanks for steering me away from Ryan Braun. You are a Fantasy God. Love, Your Savior. P.S. What do you think about Lackey for Alex Gordon? I’m good on starters, but have Cust as my Utility.”)
Ryan Zimmerman – Before the Anti-Defamation League of Ryans contacts me, I swear I have no prejudice towards the name Ryan. I even just picked up Ryan Franklin in a league and I’ve eaten at Ryan Gosling’s Moroccan Restaurant — the couscous was overcooked, but the bastilla was good. Then again, who’s ever had a bad bastilla? Someone who puts catsup on egg noodles and calls it pasta, that’s who.
Dustin McGowan – He threw too many innings last year. If you like math — Pitcher who has a good season + overworked = overrated. (More math problems, MTV reality shows = mindless wonderfulness. Republicans = Democrats. Hispanics + peanut butter and jelly sandwiches = Unhappy Hispanics.)
Any AL Starter – Hater Bell covered this in this post. I don’t like trading apples for apples (starter for starter, third basemen for third basemen, etc.), but I can almost get behind a trade like Lackey and Cliff Lee for Wainwright and Maine. In fact, I likey. Hey, I just made a hypothetical trade with myself.
Any Closer – Think of them as a necessary evil and you’ll be better off. I love to do trades like Mariano Rivera for Josh Hamilton then turn around and trade Josh Hamilton for Trevor Hoffman and Matt Capps then turn around and trade Capps for Victorino. Closers are like girls. You will overvalue them at first, grow to despise them, wish you traded them for their sister, not understand how they can get over you so fast when you drunkenly call them at three in the morning. Finally, you find a replacement then get a sex tape in the mail of your ex with your best friend time dated to the afternoon of your one year anniversary. Or maybe that’s me. Anyway, don’t get too attached.
UNDERRATED
Any Setup Man – Rudy claims he taught me how to use middle men many years ago. I don’t remember it, but maybe. Or maybe that’s his consolation for losing to me last year. And three years ago. And four years ago.
Any Big-Bellied 1st Basemen that is Currently Struggling – These guys could go 100/40/100 in their sleep. Howard’s average might leave something to be desired, but he’s a .265 hitter. What, you wanted a fat Ichiro?
Any Padres Pitcher – I could have a 4.50 ERA in Petco and I throw like a girl.
Aaron Cook – He’s a ground ball pitcher. It’s hard to hit ground balls out of the yard.
Any NL Starter – See 5 3/4 inches above.
Me – I think I’m good for about seven to eight posts a week. Maybe 500 to 700 words per post. Everyone has off days, but I think at the end of the season, you’ll be better off with me than without. And I can beat you in checkers. (Union County Checker Champion grades 5 thru 7. That horn is twenty years old and I’m still tooting it.)
Shawn Hill – As someone who has tried to beat the drum about about this guy, I can tell his fan club is not well-attended. In one of my leagues, I tried to trade Hill for Stephen Drew when Tulo went down. That trade got shot down quicker than David Eckstein trying to get on a roller coaster.
Melky Cabrera – Considering the Yankees hype machine it’s weird to find any Yankee on this list, but somehow people ain’t feeling Melky. Even after being crowned the best name in baseball according to Larry King.
RATED
Eric Gagne – Backne isn’t on the juice anymore and it’s hurting him. Karma is your mother-in-law.
Nick Punto – Might even be unrated.
Carlos Lee – Everyone knows what you’re going to get.
Mike Cameron – 20/20/.250 for like forty years in a row. He was the only person who got caught sipping the cheating juice and no one lowered one single prediction.
Milton Bradley – Predictable, injury-prone loose cannon. I wonder if Cliff Floyd and him are buds. That’s one carpool I would not want to be party to. (“Milton, can you grab my Mary J. Blige CD from the backseat?” “Sure, Cliff, is it next to your diaphragm?” Car screeches to the side of the road, they jump out to fight only to simultaneously pull a hammy.)
, who I think is brilliant. Here’s the relevant quote to better understand what follows:
