The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame. To read more on the FBHOF, click here.

This week, the best shortstops are identified and elected. Here is the FBHOF page for the position.

The third installment for the inaugural list of inductees into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame looks at shortstops, a position which has undergone much churn since 1980.  Previously a non-hitting position, shortstops are now arguably the strongest in fantasy baseball and this is reflected in the inductee selections.  Aside from Catchers, the shortstops have historically been one of the two weakest positions and their representation in the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is minimal – only two made the cut.

Below is a chart the bears some explanation.  To figure out which positions have historically outperformed the others, I combed through the scores of each fantasy worthy player, determined the player’s position, and then derived the average score for each position, each year.

To make sure we are all on the same page, I:
- Took all “fantasy worthy” shortstops in 1980 and figured their group average score.
- Repeated the process for the 1980 crew of 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF.
- Then derived a similar set of scores for every other season.
- Almost done.  Next I determined the ranking of each position for each year when compared to other positions.  For example, in 1980 going across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) the average scores were 5.6, 3.7, 4.9, 4.2, 5.0.  This gives a ranking (across the diamond again) of 1st, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd.
- Finally, I summed the number of instances for each ranking for each position.  The result:

Please note that I excluded Catchers since they are easily the worst position and there is no need to spend any time confirming this.  I also only looked at the period of 1980 through 2002 since we don’t need to look at the most recent 5 years because any player who came to the majors just 5 years ago will not be in the hall of fame.  (Please note however that in the last 5 years the shortstops have had the best ranking three times).

What I found is not surprising.  First basemen followed by outfielders are the strongest positions historically.  Middle infielders take up the rear while the third basemen lie somewhere in between.  The point?  Shortstops rarely help your fantasy team to a great extent.  If they rarely help it stands to reason that there won’t be many elite players, especially when only looking at players who are great for at least five year stretches.   Many shortstops have had very good seasons, but not so many have done it at least five times.

Need further evidence?  After looking at this data for quite some time it has become apparent that a HOF worthy seasonal score is about 10 FBHOF points.  This is the minimum.  Here is list of the number of 10 point seasons for each position from 1980-2002:

214:  OF
81:  1B
50:  3B
37:  2B
30:  SS
19:  C
5:  DH

Shortstops just don’t help you win as much as other positions and as a result, only two make it in today.

Starting things off is arguably the best fantasy player of all time, Alex Rodriguez.  It seems it has been a lifetime since Rodriguez has had shortstop eligibility, but in his career just 31% of his seasons have been at third base.  The rules therefore require that he goes in as a shortstop and so he will.

Rodriguez’s FBHOF score is a whopping 86.9, second only to Barry Bonds for offensive positions and fourth overall.  His Peak Score of 81.2 is the best ever for a batter and his career total is third.  All told, Rodriguez has been the most dominant fantasy player of the era.  It’s worth looking at his stats season by season, here are his 5 best:

He has been so good that his 2002 season where he smacked 57 home runs doesn’t make the cut into his peak score, the core metric used for induction.  Additionally, every season in which he was a full time player Rodriguez has recorded a FBHOF score of at least 10, something no other player has even come close to duplicating.

As one of handful of players to accumulate 85 or more points, the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame will have more on A-Rod’s prowess in a special write-up in the coming weeks.

The second Hall of Fame shortstop is no stranger to greatness either.  Cal Ripken is said to have revolutionized the position and while I am not so sure about that (see Banks, Ernie) I do agree he was really, really good for a long time.

Ripken had two great seasons, 8 years apart no less.  In 1983 he batted .318 with 121 R, 27 HR, and 102 RBI.  In 1991 he was even better attaining a .323 average, with 99 R, 34 HR, 114 RBI, and 6 SB. Both of these seasons scored in high 13’s for FBHOF points and both were of Top-5 overall quality.  In between these years he churned out three other very good to great seasons which makes his peak score 61.0, second to only Rodriguez.  Ripken also joins Howard Johnson and Robin Yount as the only shortstops prior to Rodriguez to finish more than one season rated in the Top 5 overall.

His peak 5-year average batting line is .302 AVG, 107 R, 28 HR, 99 RBI, 3 SB and for those that look at this and see Miguel Tejada keep in mind the context of Ripken’s achievements.  The average league minimum during Ripken’s peak was just .247 AVG, 47 R, 7 HR, 42 RBI, and 6 SB.  This shows how suppressed offenses were while Ripken was one of the greats.

There are several shortstops who could have arguably been elected, but in the end their core FBHOF wasn’t close enough to the magical 65 points to bend the rules.  The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is for great contributors, not just the very good.

Derek Jeter – Cap’n Jete’s was the closest to election with a solid 60.2 FBHOF score.  In the end however, he’s about a half a season away from enshrinement, and is certainly hurt by the high offensive era he has played through.  Jeter has 3 great seasons (FBHOF scores of 12.6, 12.3), one very good (10.3), and another just below the cut (9.7).  Comparing Jeter to Ripken, we find Ripken’s best was indeed superior to Jeter’s - the Oriole has two seasonal scores above 13.5 which is the difference maker between the two.

Can Jeter make it in?  With a great season, yes, of course.  He also has a chance based upon the longevity bonus that can be awarded (1% for every Fantasy Worthy Season).  Assuming he doesn’t increase his peak score, he’ll need a total of 12 non-peak fantasy worthy seasons to be inducted.  He currently stands at 7.  He’s 34 years old this year, so if he plays at league minimum standards until he’s 38, he’ll make it.  Seems likely to me.

Howard Johnson – Players like Johnson likely deserve their own section at FBHOF.  Johnson was elite for two years, finishing as the #1 and #2 ranked batter in 1989 and 1991.  During these two seasons he averaged 106 R, 37 HR, 109 RBI, 35 SB, and a .273 AVG.  He also finished first or second at his position 4 times.  However, that key 5th season isn’t close to greatness as he finished 43rd overall and this wipes out any chance he had for election.

Nomar Garciaparra – Garciaparra is in almost the same boat as Jeter, he had many very good seasons and not enough great ones.  During his peak he averaged a final ranking of 13th among batters; Ripken averaged 9th and Jeter 12th.

Alan Trammell – The Detroit Tiger isn’t all that close to election and his real baseball skills are much superior to his Fantasy Baseball skills.  He’s also hurt because he perennially seemed to miss 20 or more games so his counting stats don’t quite measure up.  In his 3rd and 4th best years he averaged 67 RBI which simply isn’t Hall of Fame material.

Barry Larkin – The National League version of Trammell:

Miguel Tejada – It surprised me how far away Tejada is from legitimate consideration.  His 2002 and 2004 seasons were great, finishing among the Top 10 batters and either 1st or 2nd at his position.  But his 2005 and 2006 campaigns fall just short as both result in less than 10 FBHOF points, and his 5th best is well off the mark.  He finished 41st among batters in 2003.  He’s off to a great start in 2008 though, so we can’t quite count him out forever.

In an article so spicy it must’ve been translated from ESPN Deportes, Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera are in a ‘bitter feud’. I’d make more fun of it but they are both Colombian and, well, those hombres know how to feud.

I hope they didn’t take any offense to me calling them middling infielders before the season (in fairness, Renteria has been good so far. Orlando, not so hot).

We can’t have the two best players from Colombia since Lou Gehrig fighting. They should settle this on the field. Here’s what I propose. One starts at third base. One starts at first base. They replace the chalk lines with lines of cocaine. First one to snort their way to home plate wins.

This is the worst shortstop feud since David Eckstein and Ben Zobrist quarreled over whose name sounded more faux-Jewy…..

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, - means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets - Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued - with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.

1. Hanley Ramirez
.332/125/29/81/51
If it wasn’t for Arod’s insane year, everyone would be talking about the year Hanley Ramirez had. Oh, and you didn’t have to draft him in the 1st round. Look at those numbers again. One homer off a 30/50 season? That’s insane. Experts have been calling for a 30/50 season from Carl Crawford for the last two years. And he’s an outfielder! A 29/50 season from a shortstop? I have a friend who drafted Michael Young right before Hanley went off the board. His emails went something like this, “Michael Young is on pace for a 5/5 season and it’s f**cking July?! Why didn’t I draft Hanley?” Not to mention, Hanley may be Latin but he doesn’t look eight years older than he’s listed at. I’m looking at you Pujols, David Ortiz and Kim Kardashian. C’mon, she’s 27? She looks like she’s in her thirties. Though she’s one of those that will look exactly the same age for fifteen years then, suddenly, she’ll look her age and it will be very disconcerting. Think Suzanne Somers.

2. Jimmy Rollins
.296/139/30/94/41
Let’s look at what he has going for him — speed and enough power for Citizen’s Bank, batting in front of Utes and Howard, an ego the size of a Cheesecake Factory entree, wanting to prove that the media is wrong by turning the best SS award automatically over to Reyes, no longer sporting braids and he gets about 1,000 at-bats a year. What’s not to like? This might be his peak and everyone calls him J-Rol. Can we call a moratorium on shortening names like this? It feels so forced and arbitrary. Man-Ram was cute, I wish sportscasters would shorten Felix Hernandez to F-Her, Arod is fitting, but when is enough enough? Cole Hamels to C-Ham? Justin Morneau to Just-Morn? Carlos Marmol to Car-Ma? Actually, I like Car-Ma and I predict at some point soon Car-Ma will catch up to Ryan Dempster.

3. Jose Reyes
.280/119/12/57/78
Disclaimer: I don’t like the Mets, but I love to watch Reyes play. Makes things difficult when you’re hoping for him to score yet you don’t want anyone on the team to get an RBI. “C’mon, double play from Wright!”

4. Troy Tulowitzki
.291/104/24/99/7
(I had to look up how to spell his last name, but didn’t need to look up Kardashian. Hmm…) Let’s not forget, he started awful. Dreadful. People were talking about bringing back “Deer Meat” Barmes. Yet, he still finished with great numbers. You probably drafted him so low(itzki) that rather than worry about the slow(itzki) start, you dropped him. Hopefully to pick him up again. Assuming you didn’t pay too(lowitzki) much for him, you got value. This might be the last year that you’ll be able to get him so low(itzki). (Sorry if that last paragraph was as confusing to read as it was to write. Sometimes things don’t work, but you get so caught up in them you continue to force a round peg into a square hole.)

5. Carlos Guillen
.296/86/21/102/13
(See Top Ten 1st Basemen) Maybe C-Guile? “C-Guile is sneaky fast!”

6. Derek Jeter
.322/102/12/73/15
If only you had drafted him in the third round of your Fantasy Shortstops Who Date Hot Girls League. Sorry no Jessica Alba category in most leagues, though his conquests must play some sort of role in where he is drafted every year. Cause the numbers are, well, okay. Eighth round okay. Enough has been written about Jeter, moving on…

7. Orlando Cabrera
.301/101/8/86/20
Honestly, I didn’t realize his numbers were so mediocre. See, I live in So-Cal and to watch a City of Anaheim ‘Burb of Los Angeles Angels game, you would think Cabrera had an MVP season. Rex Hudler loves him some Cabrera. Here’s hoping Hud was in your league and took him before you. Nah, that’s just backlash. He had a decent season for an MI spot.

8. Michael Young
.315/80/9/94/13
Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young had a typical year for Julio Lugo. Not sure how you bat second or third on the Rangers and only score 80 runs. Offensive ballpark and he had over 200 hits. How do you do that? Oh, that’s right Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson, Jason Botts, Marlon Byrd were batting behind him. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Texas Rangers!

9. Edgar Renteria
.332/87/12/57/11
Okay, the RBIs were low, but you didn’t have to pay much to get these numbers. Not to mention, he was injured for about two months so if you slotted in someone else while he was DL-ed, you padded the above stats. But praising Renteria is like praising Vanilla Ice Cream. You know what you’re getting.

10. J.J. Hardy
.277/89/26/80/2
Personally, I like his numbers better than Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young. His .277 wasn’t crippling, his 26 homers were excellent for SS and his RBIs and runs weren’t bad at all. Not to mention, you had to draft Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young about twenty rounds earlier. I wouldn’t go as far to say J.J. was dy-no-mite, but you could’ve done worse. Speaking of which…

Tejada had his consecutive game streak broken and you wasted a really high pick and Furcal absolutely killed teams this year. Furcal actually had a bad year for Julio Lugo.