Fantasy Baseball Advice

Straight from Rudy’s risky pitcher post, “Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.”  Following that line of thought, Brandon Morrow was thrown from the big boy ride and will start the season on the DL because he threw sliders with reckless a-Brandon.  The Jays are going to backdate Morrow’s DL stint so he’ll only miss one start.  Yeah, and I’d like to backdate my fantasy draft where I took Morrow, but that ain’t happening either.  If Morrow only misses one start all year, call me Mr. Wendal and play me in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kyle Drabek – Definitely making the rotation now.  In his cup of coffee last year, he got creamed.  But like a Welsh Corgi, he comes from a good pedigree.  If Morrow stays out for an extended period time, then Drabek could stay up for a while.  I like my roofies in the NL, so I’m not picking him up, but in AL-Only or keepers, I could see grabbing him for a 7 K/9 and just over a 4 ERA.

Roy Oswalt – Was knocked down by a comebacker.  Would’ve be a classy touch if the stadium started playing Rihanna’s “What’s My Name?”  BTW, why is the square root of 69 Aesop?  Oswalt is as tough as nails (not Lenny Dykstra, though they could be brothers from different mothers).  I wouldn’t be surprised if Oswalt is fine for the start of the regular season.  C’mon, he rides tractors in the offseason, you can’t stop that magic.

Curtis Granderson – Early yesterday morning, Joe Girardi said Grandy will be ready for Opening Day.  But Girardi wears braces causing no one to take him serious, so later in the day there was word Grandy won’t be ready.

Dustin Ackley – Dustin’s off, man, to the minors.  Invest in plastics!

Jake Peavy – Called his rotator cuff problem a minor blip.  Yeah, and the Titanic hit a minor iceberg.

Kila Ka’aihue – Haven’t talked much about The Good Eyein’ Hawaiian.  He hasn’t hit for much average so far in the major leagues.  Or is it ma’ajor leagues?  But he’s hitting well so far this spring.  Oh, poi!  In OBP leagues, you should grab him in the reserve rounds for a chance at something special.  In 15 team leagues or more, take a flyer.  Can’t hurt.  He could be one of those guys that becomes the hot add the first week of the season and hits 25 homers with a .260 average.

Alexi Ogando – Told reporters he wants to close.  Now there’s some initiative.  Next time, he should say that while dressed as Ron Washington.

Oliver Perez – The Nats signed him then announced they would be holding an Oliver Perez Day in late-May where the fans get to throw rocks at the management, only to miss them with three of four throws.

Brandon Webb – Was scratched from throwing when he couldn’t get loose.  Wait a second, someone in aluminum pants just walked into my office.  What’s that?  You’re from the future?  Wow!  Why are you here, future boy?  To tell me Webb only starts seven games all year and is then shut down again?  Thanks!  Wait, come back!  I have important questions for you!  Like, um, who wins Top Chef?!

Brian Wilson – Had a setback with his oblique.  Sorta like the monkeys at the start of 2001:  A Space Odyssey.  My money says Romo is going to close games for the first week of the regular season and it’s written in Latin.

Cody Ross – May miss the start of a season with a hurt calf, which is abbreviated in the New England Journal of Medicine as a boo-boo on the moo-moo.

A Spanish woman, dressed in black, just pedaled past my house, chanting, “Luis Castillo no es Manny Trillo…Luis Castillo no es Manny Trillo…Luis Castillo… Oh shoot, I ripped my stockings!”  It was totally sad.  Kinda like when your best buddy, let’s call him Chase Utley, gets old man knee and the Phillies replace him with Luis Castillo.  Luis Castillo would be good for my pre-All-Star Game contest where him and Juan Pierre have a home run contest and the gopher ball-happy Rodrigo Lopez is pitching.  Just think of how few back’s we’d have to hear from Berman.  There’s nothing as far as fantasy goes with Castillo.  Even if objects appear closer in the side view, you still can’t see Castillo’s best days.  To give you an idea of how terrible he is, the Mets released him.  Long story short, he’s useless in any league where there are other starting 2Bs available.  This Castillo signing does spell further doom for Utley.  You really can’t draft him at this point.  Also, my giant ostrich head has been in the sand too long with Howard.  No Utley hurts him.  I’m dropping him eight spots in the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings to right behind A-Rod.  I would still draft him, but you can’t expect 115 RBIs or 95 runs at this point.  Well, you can, but people might start to worry about you.  Anyway, here’s some more news in fantasy baseball:

Johnny Cueto – Will miss 10 days or more with shoulder inflammation.  Looks like Jason LaRue’s voodoo doll is finally working.  This sounds like Cueto is going to miss at least a few weeks of the season.  Obviously, not a great sign, but before we take Cueto to the mattresses for getting injured we should tempurpedic our concern.  It’s a long season and he had a 5+ ERA last April and you still drafted him this year.  He gets better in the heat, just DL him once the Reds do.

Brian Wilson – Mild oblique strain.  Well, that’s vague.  Wilson says he’ll be ready for Opening Day.  If he can’t go, it’ll be Romo and his masked luchador, El Machine.

J.J. Putz – His back hurtz.  I’d grab David Hernandez for vulture saves.  He may not get them, but you don’t want any part of anyone else in the bullpen.  Namely, Juan Gutierrez.  By the buh-bye, there’s a closer report coming this afternoon.  You can hardly wait!  No, you!

Kendry Morales – As I told you last week after deciphering clues from the interwebs, he’s starting the year on the DL.  What’s that lovely horn I hear?  Oh, it’s a Trumbo.

Grady Sizemore – Set to test his knee on Tuesday.  Him and Utley should totally cruise for chicks together in Wal-Mart scooters.

Ryan Zimmerman – Someone who won’t be cruising for chicks is Zimmerman with a sore groin.  What a bummer, man.  He says he’ll be fine without many spring ABs.  I’m not too concerned, for now.  Zimmerman does seem like he’s going to have a steep decline in his early 30′s a’la Rolen.  Hopefully, he doesn’t adopt that Rolen-esque fast home run trot that is supposed to be uber-professionalism at its finest but actually comes off even more douchey to me.

Oliver Perez – Mets released him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin walking seven straight hitters.

Brad Emaus – The Mets 2B audition – aka the beautiless pageant – is nearing its end.  With Castillo gone and Daniel Murphy being pegged as a “utility” guy, it looks like Rule V pickup Brad Emaus will win the job.  He’s got great plate discipline, which is great in OBP leagues, but he doesn’t have great power or speed.  Think 10/10 if he plays the full year.  There’s still a chance though that they give a lot of playing time to Luis Hernandez (no hit, all glove), Justin Turner (who was great in Northern Exposure), Murphy, or some other blech option.  For full disclosure, we picked him up as a bench guy in our NL-only; his upside is that he beats our incumbent MI, Skip Schumaker.

Starlin Castro – Rudy is high on Castro, saying crazy things like he could take a huge step forward.  Castro’s big spring has done nothing to dampen Rudy’s enthusiasm.

Jeff Baker – Another player Rudy’s going a bit caca-cuckoo over is Baker.  Right now, he’s still nothing but an NL-Only flyer, but Joyce DeWitt’s son is in danger of not even making the team.

Devin Mesoraco – Okay, so some of these updates are because we own these players in LABR, but you need to put shizz out in the universe.  That’s The Secret!  Mesoraco is hitting over .400 this spring, was drafted 15th overall in 2007 and he’s the catcher of the future in Cincy.  He’s worth looking at in dynasty leagues.  Dusty Baker added, “I like it when my catchers’ names sound like wrestlers.  Ramon Hernandez sounds impressive but no one wants to get in a steel cage with someone named Devin Mesoraco.”

J.P. Arencibia – The Jays manager, who 85% of you can’t name, said the Jose member of The Flying Molina Bros. will catch Morrow and Drabek.  When I said in the rankings, Arencibia reminds me of Napoli, I was hoping it wouldn’t be his lack of playing time too.  Looks like Scioscia-ism has crossed the Canadian border!

Pedro Alvarez – 19/1 K/BB rate so far this spring.  People seem pretty sure about drafting Alvarez above Reynolds.  I think Mini Donkey might still have some kick in him.  Cust kayin’.

Charlie Morton – Awarded the fifth starter spot in Pittsburgh.  There are two types of crappy pitchers:  1) The type that get hit because they have bad stuff and 2) The type that get hit because they don’t know how to use their good stuff.  At least with the second type, they might figure it out.  Charlie Morton is the 2nd type.

Nelson Figueroa - Currently the 5th SP on the Astros but he has the talent to be a 6th SP, 7th SP, 8th SP or even higher.  If auction dollars had a face, the $1 would look like Nelson Figueroa and the $2 would be of some other pitcher laughing at the $1.

Jake Peavy – Will miss Opening Day.  Do they make emoticons with tears?  Oh, well, looks like Peavy’s back to usual shizz.  Phil Humber is slated to take his rotation slot.  Humber is from Nacogdoches (KNACK-uh-DOUGH-ches), Texas.  Appropriately, he is not from mackadocious.

Justin Upton – Should be fine, but his knee is a bit sore from tripping on grass.  Who is he, Tommy Chong?

This week is bloated with guys who are most likely owned in your league. Or guys that should be owned. Though maybe not in ESPN abandoned leagues.  ESPN owners, raise your hand if you’re not here. Guess they’re not here either. I wish I had the time to waste on a draft that I was going to do and 20 games into the season be like, “Eh, I’ll see how I’m doing later.” The funny thing is we’ve all been in leagues where a dead team actually wins. I guess they want to get a head start on football, so they can leave that team dead too. Take a gander at my list of two start pitchers for week 4, and I welcome all questions or insults.

Davis Huff (@ LAA vs. Weaver) (Min vs. Liriano)
He isn’t as good as his start against Tex, but isn’t as bad as his last.  He is your typical 6 innings 4 ER guy, and in a pinch and get 2 start scenario, I’ll take that. Not a huge K guy which is why he isn’t owned everywhere. I am still not sold on Liriano.

Matt Harrison (Det vs. Bonderman) (@ Sea vs. Hernandez)
Yeah, I know he gets The King this week, but should be able to keep Tex in the game and may sneak a quality start against Detroit. Got killed by not keeping the ball down in the zone vs. Boston. Look for a good first start and play it by ear later in the week if you’re ahead in any pitching categories.

Carlos Silva (Was vs. Lannan) (Ari vs. Haren)
Another great one start and maybe not later in the week guy. Has 2 home starts, and has performed admirably in his chances so far. Do I believe it? No, I think it’s smoke and mirrors.  After the change of league it takes 8-10 starts for the league to be say, “Duh, he’s throwing underhand.” Great first start matchup.

Dana Eveland (Bos vs. Beckett) (Oak vs. Gonzalez)
I normally don’t root for a guy named Dana. They are always last one taken in any sport and never know how to play. He sorta knows what he is doing. WHIP nightmare as he pitches to contact, which maybe bad against the hibernating Red Sox bats.

Bud Norris (Cin vs. Harang) (@Atl vs. Lowe)
More of a first name that I can trust. His uncle Chuck guarantees a 2 win week, and I’m not going against his logic. Doesn’t get great depth into games, will K his share. Two matchups that would have been great 3 years ago. Harang’em and bang isn’t what he used to be…Well, he is still a pitcher, but, well, you know. Lowe is what he is, a great ground ball pitcher.  They never go out of style.

Mat Latos (@ Fla vs. Johnson) (Mil vs. Gallardo)
Two tough starts for Latos.  Guys who can blow up or shut you down. Coming off a gem vs. the Giants. Any start at Petco is worth the gamble. Tough to start a guy against big name pitchers. Good for at least one win.

Zach Duke ( @ Mil vs. Gallardo) (@Lad vs. Kuroda)
Got shelled in his last start vs. Milwaukee, who scored 36 runs in a 3 game sweep of the Bucco’s. Not going to win you an ERA title nor keep guys off base, but for a bad team someone has to be the ace. Look for a 6 Era for the week, a win and 8-10 K’s.

Jamie Moyer (@ Sf vs. Wellemeyer) (NyM vs. Perez)
The ageless one is still getting it done with some effectiveness.  Yeah, if I had that lineup I would be pretty decent too. Never a huge K guy, but with the Phils’ ability to score runs behind him and his favorable matchups, I’m buying for a buck for week 4.

Oliver Perez (LaD vs. Kuroda) (Phi vs. Moyer)
Making Silva’s contract look like a bargain.  Guy is the definition of inconsistency. Has the stuff, just can get his arm slot in check. He is going to breakout one game and K, like, 12 and be the WW sensation of the week, just not this one. Look for a mid 5 Era, a win and 12 k’s for the week.

Evan Longoria went 0-for-4 yesterday.  He’s been kinda terrible for about three months now.  Man, third base is a minefield.  Now I’m not putting Longoria in the Wright Sucks Then Gets Conked On The Head box.  No, he hasn’t been nearly that bad.  But two separate months of an under .240 average and two months of zero steals and tw0 months of 1 steal and this sentence has nearly as many ands as, “In the saying, “Fish-and-Chips,” it’s necessary to have a hyphen between “fish” and “and,” and “and” and “chips.”  I’m not ready to proclaim where Longoria should be drafted next year.  I’m Grey and I make proclamations! But Longoria isn’t exactly setting the world afire with flames shooting out of his areolas.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Kazmir – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Sonavabench!  I can’t stand Rays pitchers this year.  They’re sucking the life out of me.  One day it’s Shields pitching terribly in my lineup, then it’s him pitching well on my bench. Then Kazmir follows suit.  I might need to take a sabbatical next year from the Rays pitchers.

J.P. Howell – 1 IP, 1 ER. This is the 2nd game in a row Thurston and Lovey’s son has blown.

Oliver Perez – Out for the season with surgery to his knee.  In September, I’m fully expecting the Mets to play their home games in candy stripper outfits.

Brad Penny – Wanted out of Boston and he got it.  He cited irreconcilable differences.  Sox just said he sucked.

Chad Qualls – Placed on waivers, but it’ll take a John Holmes-sized package to get him from the Diamondbacks.  If he’s shown the door, I’d expect Rauch to get the saves.  Oh, and he blew a save last night.  Yay.

Justin Upton – Back from his oblique strain.  Oh, and he went 1-for-3.  Non-sarcastic yay.

Jonathan Sanchez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Has been solid since his no-hitter.  Somewhere, Buehrle realizes he should’ve renegotiated his deal with the devil.

Brian Wilson – Medders got the save yesterday (quite easily actually), but I think it was just because Medders was warming up to enter a losing game, then one of The Flying Molina Brothers put the Giants into a save situation with 2 outs in the 8th.

David Ortiz – 2 HRs yesterday.  Has 22 homers on the year while batting .227.  Who are you, Dave Kingman?

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks vs. the Mets.  Is it only me or do you, loyal Razzball reader, also expect a shutout from your pitcher when they face the Mets and are upset when all you get is a s0lid start?

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Was outpitched by Pineiro.  What’s worse, I’m not surprised.  I wanna say to Oswalt, “You gonna let this punk get away with that?  What’s the matter with you?  What’s the world comin’ to?”

Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-4, but caught stealing again.  On the bright side, he’s at least attempting steals.  I’m farting in your general direction, Alcides Escobar.

Andre Ethier – 3-for-4, 2 HRs.  Mentioned so I don’t get hate mail from Andre Ethier’s Mom.

Jack Cust – HR yesterday.  Member two days ago how I said when he gets hot, he gets scorching?  He’s now batting near .600 for the last week.

Jose Lopez – HR yesterday.  Has 4 homers in the last week.  Cool, but I dropped him back in May and don’t regret it.

Trevor Hoffman – Placed on waivers.  These things usually don’t go through.  Keep that in mind.  But I’d expect Coffey to grab Brewers saves in September if The Hoff’s off.

Nick Johnson – Heads to the DL.  If you set your watch by Johnson’s DL trips, you were probably pretty tardy this year as it took him much longer than usual to hit the infirmary.

Brad Lidge – Before yesterday’s game, Manuel said Lidge will remain the Phillies closer.  So, of course, Madson came on for the save.  And blew it.  Give Scott Eyre the ball!  I keed.  Lidge had worked a few days in a row, so I think Lidge is still the guy… To blow saves.

Cole Hamels – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  I watched a good chunk of this game.  The Pirates had a lot of opportunities to score.  Love to sit here (and I am sitting) and tell you Hamels is gonna be just fine going forward, but I’d be lying.  He might be, but this game shouldn’t be used as an indication either way.

Matt LaPorta – 2-for-4 and a HR yesterday.  He now has at least one hit in every game since his recall.  Now Eric Wedge must think harder about ways to bench him.

Andy Pettitte – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  I don’t think I’ve owned a Yankee pitcher in five years.  Too many headaches with the division and now the ballpark.  Pettitte’s one of those I wouldn’t have owned (though used to when he was on the Astros).  But through it all, Pettitte has pitched well this year.  Nothing incredible (4.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, around 7 K/9), but solid.

Alfonso Soriano – May need knee surgery.  No word if he’ll have it sooner than later.  My guess is later, but if he does it sooner, then suddenly we have a some playing time for Jake Fox.  Yes, Soriano’s fallen far when I’m hoping for knee surgery and I own him in a league.

Milton Bradley – HR yesterday.  Before the game, he talked about how much he hates Chicago, “I’m talking about hatred, period. I’m talking about when I go to eat at a restaurant. I’ve got to listen to the waiters badmouthing me at another table, sitting in a restaurant.”  Milton needs to stop eating at Dick’s Last Resort.

With Wakefield headed to the DL with a bad back (can’t he throw his knuckleball while sitting down?), Clay Buchholz will step into the Sawx rotation.  In 99 innings of Triple-A, Buchholz had a line of 2.36/.98 and 89 Ks.  His walks were down this year in the minors, though he did walk 3 in his only major league start this year vs. the Blue Jays.  Buchholz should be owned in all leagues, 10 team or deeper.  If he pitches well vs. the Rangers (though I wouldn’t start him in all formats), he may become even better trade bait for your team.  I doubt Buchholz stays in the rotation the rest of the year and, even if he does, he had a 6.75 ERA last year.  I’d imagine this year you’re looking at around a 4 ERA.  Your ability to sell on Buchholz may close quicker than you can incorrectly spell his last name.  In keepers, I’d hold tight.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  A bit of housekeeping before we get into today’s roundup.  Razzball’s Fantasy football leagues are forming and we’ve unveiled our Fantasy Football Team Name Generator (with some additional categories that weren’t on the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator).  Okay, now for the roundup…

Roy Halladay – J.P. Ricciardi says the ace must be traded by July 28th or he won’t be moved.  As for why July 29th-31st wouldn’t work, Ricciardi cited airings of Top Chef Masters, then reruns of CSI: Miami and Bones.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu went FUBAR into the center field wall.  The Mariners are saying he’s day-to-day.  I have to assume he’s a-day-or-two-or-three-days.  The newspaper reporting this, The News Tribune, said when you saw the photo of The Big FraGu on the ground “you had to be absolutely freaking out.” Direct quote.  Hey, I’m no newspaper writer, but when did “absolutely freaking out” become AP style?  I blame Woodward and Bernstein.  That’s right, the guy who wrote “gloryholz” in his title is calling someone out for “absolutely freaking out.”  Deal with it!

Wladimir Balentien – HR yesterday filling in for the InJured FraGu.  If Balentien gets some time, then he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues or leagues that require you to have one player with the name Wladimir.

Jack Hannahan – 2 HRs.  He’s doing much better since he was demoted from the job of Nats closer.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know you ordered raw, but he’s done.  Also, Leyland’s saying he’s going to pull the plug on him to keep his innings down.

Braden Looper – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 K.  Good for Looper, but I feel bad for the guy who lugged all those cardboard Ks to the game.

John Lannan – Shutout vs. Guess who.  Hint the Padres were facing the Marlins.  Still nothing?  C’mon, the Metropolitans!

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 BBs.  Perez is a pitching dynamo.  (Dynamo, as defined by Merriam-Webster’s, is a generator, especially one for producing direct current.  A dynamo is also rarely useful in modern days.)

Miguel Montero – HR yesterday as he bats .583 in the last 7 games and .380 in July.  He might be Pipp’ing Snyder.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the peasant Royals.  Belch.

Erick Aybar – 7-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Hitting .469 so far in July.  Johnny Olson, let’s see what’s behind schmohawk MI door number three… It’s Erick Aybar!  I picked him up in a 12 team league.  I suggest you do too.

Everth Cabrera – Speaking of MI schmohawks.  Steals aren’t worth this much to me.  I dropped him for the aforementioned Aybar.

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  Wait, I know that line!  It’s Clayton Kershaw, right?  Wow, great impersonation, Scherzer.

Brian McCann – Hit his 10th homer yesterday.  Has a 33/10/46/.305/3 line on the year.  Member when you wanted to get rid of him because he was getting his eyes checked for two weeks?  Yeah, you.  Couldn’t be?  Then who?

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-4, 1 RBI.  He’s as hot as Erick Aybar (<–actually a compliment).

Sergio Mitre – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  If he gives that line every time out and gets the Win for the Yanks, they’ll be more than happy.  You should not be.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 1 ER.  If you told me in March, I’d not only own Blanton, but I’d be starting him at home and be happy about it, I would’ve called you a liar.  *phone rings*  Hello?  Yes, this is Grey… Who?  This is the Time Traveler’s Wife?  You told me in March I’d own Blanton?  Liar!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 21st home run yesterday to win the game in the… blah blah blah… You don’t care who wins, do you?  Werth’s on his way to a monster season.  As George Lucas tells his ILM peeps, put the emphasis on the monster.

Jimmy Rollins – HR yesterday, batting .375 in July.  I’m not going to tell you how many times I told you in June to buy Rollins.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks.  Honestly, he should be owned and talked about more, but there’s only so many letters I can type per day.  (About 12,700 +/- 20)  Cecil has solid stuff and the Ks aren’t a fluke.  He gets the Rays next (pass!), but he should get the A’s and the O’s after that, assuming everything stays quid pro bono unum.  He’s a decent spot start for those two. (Hey, sometimes to get the good starts, you gotta look ahead.)

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-3, 0 Runs and 0 RBIs.  T-Minus one day until I drop him.  Better hide under your desk.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER. Daily Roundup Mad-Libs, And the  ________ rolls on.

Mark DeRosa – Hit his first and second homers as a Card.  The trade is finally paying off!  Wait, the Cards lost.

Homer Bailey – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  If there’s such a thing as a minor league fantasy baseball league that counts only minor league stats, I’d hold Bailey.  Everywhere else, belch.

Manny Ramirez – Left after being hit by a Homer Bailey pitch.  Good to see Bailey not happy with just pissing off his owners.  Manny is said to be day-to-day.

Andrew Bailey – Given up runs in his last two appearances and he’s suffering from a sore knee.  Save vultures activate… In the form of Michael Wuertz.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday, cause that’s what he do.

Bobby Jenks – 1 IP, 2 ER and now has given up earned runs in four of his last five outings.  I’d own Linebrink if you have room.  Something might be jenky with Bobby.

John Danks – Will miss a start with a blister issue.  He pointedly said it was a blister, not a cold sore.