Fantasy Baseball Advice

Let Kate Upton know that Philip Humber is now allowed entrance into the Perfect Club as he retired 27 straight Mariners (here’s a tip: don’t get too close to Dallas Braden in the sauna).  That’s only the 21st perfect game in history – surprisingly, as you would’ve thought at least that many pitchers would have thrown perfect games against the Mariners last year.  Kudos to those of you who streamed, Humber.   A few of our comments on Saturday went like this, “Grabbed Humber for a stream cuz there was no one else, then dropped him before I even realized he pitched a perfect game.”  Nice Humberbrag!  Before you feel too proud of yourself for being the first to pick up Humber, just remember that the last two guys to throw a perfect game in the AL are Dallas Braden and Mark Buehrle.  The only difference between those non-dominating lefties and Humber is that Humber throws right handed and his first name is what I used to call the guy at the gas station when I was a jerky teenager.  You know, I gave him an aptronym.  Consider this perfect game less a reminder to pick up Phil Humber, but more a reminder that it’s generally a safe bet to stream a pitcher at Seattle.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Marlon Byrd – Traded to the Red Sox as the player to be named later for an old bet between Epstein and John Henry.  Teach Epstein to say, “I bet in eight years the greatest band in the world will be Hoobastank.”  Marlon Byrd is a marginal power, not great speed guy that has more real world value, like everyone who’s ever been on The Real World.  Think 12 homers, 5 steals.  If that excites you, take your meds, you’re excited too easily.

Michael Bowden – The once interesting prospect pitcher went the other way.  You can take that both ways, i.e., he’s no longer interesting and he’s headed to the Cubs (and presumably middle relief).  I wouldn’t be surprised if Epstein knows something that we don’t know (okay, probably a lot of something) in regards to Bowden, but for now there’s nothing to see here.

Tony Campana – Finally, we’re done with real world value where things matter like bill-paying and not getting annoyed when someone refills the toilet paper so it unrolls under.  Put it over so it rolls out!  *breathe, Grey, breathe*  With the trade of Byrd, Campana was recalled and started in center yesterday where he went 1-for-2.  Campana can steal 30 bases in 300 ABs.  He’s crazy fast.  He just ran into your cubicle, refilled your toner and ran out without you seeing him.

Jarrod Parker – Fat Jonah announced that Parker will be called up by the A’s for Wednesday’s game.  Last year, Parker was pretty pedestrian, but that might’ve been him still regaining his control from Tommy John surgery.  I just thought of something:  If I had something that was terminal and got to “Make a Wish,” my wish would be to have Tommy John surgery performed by Tommy John.  If Parker strikes out over 8 per nine as he’s done in the minors, gets ground balls and regains his control, he’s the best starter you’re picking up off waivers right now.  If he fails to translate his Ks and ground balls, then you have an A’s starter that could roofie you.

Jemile Weeks – 0-for-4, now batting .197.  Where’s your manners, Jemile?  If he were sucking this bad, Rickie would at least have the decency to get hurt.

Alfredo Aceves – I had this friend from high school, let’s call him Brian, cause that was his name.  Brian got a job at a hot dog place that served the best chili I’ve ever had.  So Brian got a job at this hot dog place and decided to start putting pubic hair into the chili.  Word spread pretty fast and the hot dog place that was there for 25 years was out of business within 6 months.  Alfredo Aceves is my friend Brian and that chili is the Red Sox’s closer job.

Daniel Bard – Seems slightly crazy that everyone, except the Red Sox knew Bard should be in the bullpen, but now he’s there.  He just went from K to F or M.  It might be temporary as his start was rained out, but I’d still grab him in the non-sexual way.

Roy Oswalt – Red Sox and Cards are reaching out to him to pitch for them.  Razzball got an exclusive peek at the negotiations!  “Roy, have you ever heard of my friend, Benjamin Franklin?”  The negotiator pulls out a hundred.  Oswalt shakes his head.  “Maybe you’ve heard of my friend, John Deere?”  Oswalt perks up.

Sergio Santos – To the DL with what I’m calling, “I told you not to draft him in the preseason!”  Grab Francisco Cordero immediately.  Though, I imagine unless you’re in a league with yourself and nine teams you own under different aliases, he’s gone.  Though II:  The Return of Though (that the critics dubbed:  Why do they keep making Though’s):  If you’re in a league against nine of yourself, I appreciate you still reading Razzball even if you might not need quote-unquote advice.

Francisco Cordero – Got the ugly save yesterday after giving up a run.  Hey, it’s like he’s been closing all year!

Danny Duffy – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (5 BBs), 5 Ks vs. the Blue Jays.  Kinda felt this start coming.  Still like Duffy’s promise, but he looks about as safe to own as Filthy Sanchez and Hochevar.  Imagine the sun is made of walks and their wings are made of Ks.

Wei-Yin Chen – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Ugh, just having a real hard time advising to pick up O’s starters, especially one that had declining Ks before coming to this country.  I’d let someone else gamble.

Giancarlo Stanton – He says his knee is better.  From his mouth to God’s ears… Which I guess is him talking to himself.

Nick Swisher – Had a lovely time in Boston.  5-for-9 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs.  Then the lemon butter dill sauce on the Dover Sole at Legal Seafood effectively masked the spit flavoring added by Chef Sully.

Mark Teixeira – M-Teix usually likes Aprils as much as Garfield likes Mondays but May seemed to come a fortnight early this year.  After hitting his 1st HR of the year on Thursday, Teixeira hit 2 HRs and a double on Saturday – including an opposite-field HR as a lefty.  Our little M-Teix is all May’d up.

Michael Pineda – Had a setback during his rehab, which Girardi deemed “not good.”  I’ll add “indeed.”

Adrian Beltre – Adrian’s rocky relationship with his hamstrings continues as he strained one on Saturday.  Beltre is headed for an MRI on Monday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his hamstring says some wet blanket bullcrap like, “It’s suicide.  You’ve seen your leg, you know how fragile it is….you can’t run!”  Then the hamstring complains at Whole Foods when it has to pay full price for a Coppola wine.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-3, 1 run, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  Can’t he party with Kinsler and some 19-year-old girls in a bathroom stall every preseason?

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 5 ER with a 11+ ERA on the year.  To rope fantasy baseballers back in, he’s due for a six unearned run, twelve walk no-hitter.

Frank Francisco – The closerousel continues as Frank Frank gets the dreaded vote of confidence.  When a manager, says someone is still their closer that gives them about five days before they’re no longer the closer.  I’d pick up Rauch, but wear back support he looks heavy.

Daniel Hudson – To the DL with a shoulder impingement, which is the worst kind of after-start ‘ment a pitcher can get.  He’s without a timetable; that’s a nice way to say, “Shizz just got real.”  The good news, the MRI revealed no structural damage, but the MRI was at 2-for-1 Ruby Tuesday’s happy hour yesterday.  Between Hudson and Collmenter, the Diamondbacks’ stalling on you-know-who just got accelerated.  If you don’t know you-know-who, hint:  he’s the next blurb.

Trevor Bauer – The Bauer countdown has officially begun.  Or said again with a whisper scream as he’s distracted because his daughter is in danger.   Scott has Bauer 9th on the top 25 fantasy baseball prospects list.  There, he compares him to Lincecum.  I think he meant that as a compliment.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s time to start stashing Bauer.  I think he’s up within the month, but could depend on Hudson.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-4 with a slam & legs.  And here we thought it was Krispie.  The D-Backs’ centerfield position is an unknown location in Tibet with mystical powers.

Brennan Boesch – 1-for-5 with his 2nd homer.  I feel the tide starting to go out on Boesch in the comments.  I get it, he’s been terrible so far, but in most leagues I’d try to hold out.  He’s in such a great spot in a lineup and Leyland Ron Popeil’s his lineup about as good as anyone.

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Okay, you have to own him at this point.  He has nearly a K per inning and a 1.13 ERA.  I do think the bottom could fall out at any time.  Or at least fall relatively back to earth.

Kyle Blanks – To have season-ending surgery on his shoulder.  He didn’t blame the injury on carrying around David Eckstein in a bjorn.

Anthony Bass – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Hodgepadre!

Juan Francisco – Homered yesterday as he started at 3rd.  Too bad Glass Chipper isn’t due for a setback for another three days.

Jon Jay – Heading to St. Louis for tests on his shoulder.  No word if he’s being transported by Clydesdale, but I think that’s the only method of transportation in St. Louis, so maybe it’s implied.

Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Kinda excited for May just so I don’t have to keep talking about this schmohawk in a positive light.

Andrew McCutchen – Batting .351 in the three hole and has 2 RBIs on the year.  Guys and (4 ladies), your Pittsburgh Pirates!

Ryan Zimmerman – He was scratched on Saturday (aaah…) and then Sunday was rained out, but he expects his shoulder to be up to snuff for Tuesday.  Bob Crane would say that’s hot.

Chad Billingsley – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Astros.  Look in the mirror.  See that person?  They got sucked in by Billingsley.

Freddy Sanchez – Will start Monday his rehab, I said, “Whatever, whatever, whatever.”

Cliff Lee – The Adverb is off to the DL with an oblique injury following his 10 inning scoreless start.  Little known fact – Jack Morris had to ice his moustache for a solid week after that memorable 10 inning World Series start.  ObLeeque had a strained abdomen with the Mariners in 2010 that cost him a month – hopeful Lee this will be limited to missing 3 starts.

Chris Narveson – Chris Capuano 2.0 looks done for the year with a rotator cuff injury.  On the bright side, he now has more time to sell insurance to the fine folks of Punxsutawney.

Jason Bourgeois was traded to Royals with Humberto Quintero.  Fun fact:  Did you know Humberto Quintero weighs exactly a quarter more than Humberto Quadtero?  When the trade was announced, Bourgeois said he’d once and for all bring down the tyrannical rule of the Royals and restore a society where Lorenzo Cain lost 75 to 100 at-bats and The Guido Playing 2nd Base lost 100 at-bats.  Bourgeois insists that a free market system for steals is essential to their success.  Then Bourgeois doffed his powdered wig and asked Yuniesky Betancourt to bring him some unpasteurized cheese.  Chop, chop, Piss Boy!  This trade doesn’t flat out kill Cain…Sugar!’s value.  It sure doesn’t help it.  As I mentioned to someone in the comments right after this trade went down, Cain…Sugar! needs to perform well in April to be worth the draft gamble and if he performs well, then he’ll play and Bourgeois will see at-bats at 2nd or all over the field.  I don’t think Bourgeois is worth a grab in mixed leagues yet, but he can quickly get on radars because of his ability to steal.  SAGNOF!  If you were looking at The Guido Playing 2nd Base for a late round flyer, he’s still worth it too.  He’s in the similar predicament as Cain…Sugar!.  If Giavotella hits in April, he’ll get playing time.  If he didn’t hit, you’d drop him with or without Bourgeois.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  It’s fine to drop him in all leagues, except leagues that have a category for damaged ulnar collateral ligaments.  In that league, you’ve got an early lead!  Go pick up Brandon Webb in case he latches on with a team.  There’s still been no clarity on the Royals closing shituation.  Holland’s better, Broxton has experience, Crow doesn’t seem likely in front of either guy.  I’m going with Holland first, and both of them in some leagues where I feel light on saves.

Derek Jeter – Has a minor calf injury.  If he had a major calf injury, I’d say, “Don’t have a cow, man!”  And we’d laugh.  Oh, would we laugh.  You and I.  Are you gonna finish that peach pie?  You know Grey likes peach pie?  Jeter should return by Friday.

Nick Swisher – Left a game with groin tightness.  In related news, A-Rod gets groin tightness when he looks at Jeter.

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now it’s being reported that Bard is headed back to the bullpen.  I’d say I told you so… Well, I just kinda did.

Dontrelle Willis – Orioles signed Willis to a minor league deal.  He was always good with the bat; it’s not too late for him to become a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Braun – Has a groin injury that he blamed on FedEx.  He should be back in the next few days, assuming FedEx gets their shizz together!

Michael Morse – His lat strain may cause him to miss a few games at the start of the season.  I’m not concerned at this point.  If he misses a week in April, it’ll all be forgotten by May.  Or beep, beep, dot, dot, slash in Morse code.

Neftali Feliz – From the files of, “Actually interesting news if I didn’t tell you to not draft him anyway,” Feliz has shoulder issues.  A closer moving into the rotation + shoulder problems = Gummi Worms.  Shoot, I did that math wrong.  It was supposed to add up to “Stay away from at drafts.”

Chris Carpenter – Felt neck discomfort yesterday.  Now seems all but certain that he’ll start the year on the DL.  Carpenter’s fans feel like it’s a rainy day or Monday.

Kyle Lohse – Will start Opening Day for the Cardinals.  Hey, Cards fans, there’s still a chance to go 161-1!

Hisashi Iwakuma – Will start the year in the bullpen.  M’s rotation will be Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood.  Hey, M’s fans, there’s still a chance to go 20-142!  On a side note, Rudy came up with a Mariner version of the Hodgepadre for our glossary… A Marginer.  A Marginer is any mediocre pitcher on the Mariners that’s worth owning when they start in Seattle.  Similar to Hodgepadre.  Most Marginers are Homeschoolers.  Not to be confused with ex-Mariner closer Mike Schooler.

David Wright – Word out of Port St. Lucie is, doesn’t Port St. Lucie sound like an after-dinner drink?  Also, Wright could play this weekend.  I don’t think he’s out of the woods yet.  And I’m not sure if the breadcrumb trail out of the woods is gonna lead to a 60-day DL stint or 140+ games played with weak power because he’ll be nursing an injury, but I’m not excited about either scenario.

Johan Santana – Only gave up one run in six innings, but whatever with that.  I ignore spring stats, but what I’d focus on is he was only in the high-80′s with his fastball.  That wouldn’t even win a SpongeBob at the local carnival.  I still have a hard time recommending him as a late draft gamble.  I think this year’s best case scenario is Johan throws 170 IP and gets about 140 Ks and around a 3.50 ERA.  Basically, you’re hoping for Vogelsong/Mike Leake-type projections.

Orlando Hudson – You shouldn’t even be drafting O-Dog, but if you were thinking about it, he’s having groin problems.  Speaking of groins, Wang’s gonna miss over a month.  (BTW, if this is your first day reading Razzball, we’re not always this fascinated with groins.  Not that we have anything against them… I mean, we’d have something against them if the situation presented itself… Okay, moving on…)

Shaun Marcum – Won’t miss any time in the rotation coming out of the gate because of his previously inflammed shoulder. To summarize in a pithy fashion, Marcum down to start.

Chris Perez – Threw batting practice yesterday and will be more than ready for Opening Day.  You know who this makes happy?  Chris Perez’s son.

Mike Adams – Joe Nathan has looked like a beast this spring.  I’m not using “like a beast” in some cool, hip phrasing.  Do I seem cool or hip to you?  I have a mustache, for crikey’s sake!  I mean, he’s looked like a beast as Mary Shelley would’ve liked that phrase used.  If you heard the podcast yesterday, you know this already.  By early summer, Nathan’s headed for the Disgraceful List and Adams will be the closer.  I’d be more surprised if it happened later than early summer than early early summer.  Glad I clarified that!

Carlos Marmol – Left a game with a hand cramp, but the MRI showed no nerve damage.  To get rid of his cramps, the doctor told him to eat a pint of ice cream and watch Sex and the City reruns.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

With more outfielders than random hairs growing from my grandfather’s ear, we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  And, just like your grandfather’s ear hair, a lot of these guys are gross.  I don’t know what happened to the outfielders, they just went and got ugly.  You look at Ryan Braun like he ruined your childhood by taking a performance-enhancing drug, but at least he’s trying to put some offense back into the modern-era of baseball.  Now someone start manufacturing aluminum bats painted to look like a wooden bat.  Thank you.  As with the other 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, where tiers start and stop are mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

41. Carlos Beltran – This tier started in the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball and ends at Ichiro.  I called this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  If you get 140 games from Beltran, then you’re going to get a solid 3rd outfielder.  But if that “if” had hips it would drop it like it’s hot and never get up again.  On a side note, how awesome would it be if during Spring Training, the Cards have a split squad game and Wainwright throws Beltran nothing but knee-buckling curves?  2012 Projections:  65/18/80/.275/7

42. Nick Swisher – I’m not super excited about Swisher when I look at his ground ball rate going up and his fly ball rate going down, but I do like his side burns.  If Luke Perry were a ballplayer and I were Jennie Garth and we both hated Shannen Doherty then… Well, I have no idea where this is going so I’ll stop now.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.270

43. Carlos Quentin – A guy that has 30 homer power + Injuries + Petco = Death + Breathing.  2012 Projections:  60/22/75/.250/3

44. Ichiro Suzuki – I was telling people to avoid Ichiro for years and it seems like the public perception of him has finally caught up to my reality.  To incorrectly quote Drake’s lyrics, “Ichiro has faded way too long, he’s floatin’ in and out of public consciousness.”  Crazy for me to say, but I think Ichiro is slightly undervalued now.  Is he that different than Brett Gardner?  Yeah, maybe a tad.  Fielders sic Ichiro’s choppers and his gams aren’t what they were, but he doesn’t look done done, just maybe medium done.  2012 Projections:  80/6/40/.310/30

45. Jose Tabata – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Fowler.  I call this tier, “At least two of these guys will break out and shoot up the rankings for 2013.”  Even in his tizzerible 2011 season, Tabata still was on pace for 25+ steals if he got in a full season.  Also, he hit 4 homers.  Is he going to be a 15/40 guy?  Nah, not likely.  But 7/30 with a solid average and runs is… Okay, you know what I’m most worried about.  How am I gonna find players I’m excited about for the top 80 outfielder post?  Seriously, the entire top 80 outfielder post might be just one giant tier of guys I don’t like since I’m only at the 45th ranked outfielder and I’m hardly building much enthusiasm.  This is an issue.  Okay, enough negativism.  Tabata is one of my best bets to shoot up the rankings from this tier.  He has some power, steals bases and isn’t an average drain.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.285/30

46. Austin Jackson – Jackson is basically Tabata with the possibility of an average drain.  Jackson’s K-rate is tizzerible so he’ll need to luck into an average over .260.  With Fielder inserted into the Tigers lineup, opposing pitchers will have to attack the first two hitters in the Tigers lineup.  Keep that in mind when you read Boesch’s blurb, I may or may not repeat it.  You’ll have to wait and see!  2012 Projections:  100/9/50/.260/27

47. Delmon Young – Let’s see what Young has going for him.  1) He was good after his trade to the Tigers. 2) He’s out of Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome.  3) He’s still only 26 years old.  4) There’s no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  Now, let’s see what he has going against him.  1) 4 of 5 seasons in the majors have been yawnstipating.  2) Blimpotence. 3) A hideous walk rate. 4) Still no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  2012 Projections:  70/17/80/.285/3

48. Cameron Maybin – Some may say that Maybin already broke out last year, so why is he so low on my rankings?  Some may be right, but you want to rely on Padres hitters?  Yeah, me neither.  Put Maybin on the Rockies and I’d have him in the top 25 outfielders.  2012 Projections:  75/7/35/.255/30

49. Lorenzo Cain – From this tier, Cain has the most upside, but he also has the most downside.  I mean, he’s gonna be 26 years old and he’s still yet to break into the majors.  Capricorns are late bloomers, but Cain is an Aries so I have no New Agey reason why he’s looking like a career minor leaguer.  But if I needed to shoehorn in a New Agey reason… An Aries is a Ram, it’s quality is a Cardinal and it’s element is Fire.  So it seems like Cain should play for the St. Louis Cardinals with their fire-red uniforms, but his planet is Mars, which has “ram” in it backwards.  Now the opposite of fire-red is ice blue and if you face St. Louis behind you is Kansas City.  So this is his year!   As of right now, he’s set to play center in Kay Cee and bat leadoff.  The table has been set, now it’s up to Cain to step up to the plate.  2012 Projections:  80/8/50/.280/25

50. Lucas Duda – This is more of a general point for upside outfielders than specifically about Duda.  The lack of enthusiasm you hear in my typees as I write up these blurbs is that some of these upside outfielders are on the Pirates, Padres, Royals and Mets.  Um, yay?  I’m not a Mets hater as some have accused me of, but Metco has a well-warranted bad rep.  Maybe the fences coming in will change all of that and we’ll be calling for a humidor in Metco.  One can hope, I suppose.  2012 Projections:  75/20/85/.280/3 (<–optimistic and still kinda whatever)

51. Brennan Boesch – If Boesch gets in a whole season, he could get you 25 homers and 10 steals.  Assuming he doesn’t take a dump in the 2nd half of the year or get injured.  To summarize what I said about twelve words ago in Spanglish, sin dumpo o mal healtho, then bueno.  2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.270/7

52. Dexter Fowler – One year with the Rockies, he stole 27 bags.  One year in the minors, he hit 9 homers.  Mark him down as a sleeper and move on (without mentioning he was caught stealing nine times last year and only successful 12 times).  Hey, it took me saying Maybin was a sleeper for 3 years before he finally broke out, maybe this is Fowler’s time.  You know, even a broken clock is right twice a day.  That’s more than Matthew Berry.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.270/20

53. Jeff Francoeur – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Joyce.  I call this tier, “Price is too steep for guys coming off career years so I’m probably going to miss out on these schmohawks.”  22 steals last year while being caught 10 times is, how do they say it?  Terrible.  So put that back to the 5-7 steals that he’s actually good for and you have a guy that has worse plate discipline than someone on The Biggest Loser with the upside of Vernon Wells.  Yes, his ceiling is Vernon Wells.  Sorry for the shot of reality.  2012 Projections:  70/22/80/.260/7

54. Melky Cabrera – Another guy with the caught stealing percentage that could even turn Joe Morgan against the steal.  Can we please get Michael Lewis to write a Dayton Moore book?  Call it “No Moneyball.”  Chapter 1:  Willie Bloomquist, Chief Justice of the Supreme Crap.  Chapter 2:  Stealing — If At First You Don’t Succeed, Try and Try Again.  2012 Projections:  75/14/65/.270/15

55. Matt Joyce – He hit 12 homers in the first half with a May where he donged 7 dingers.  I loved him then.  It was like a shawl made of a giant mustache wrapped around both of our shoulders as we watched When Harry Met Sally in an outdoor screening in a park.  There’s a very outside chance I end up with Matt Joyce on a team or two this year if he goes for cheap enough.  I don’t think he comes close to his 2011, but if he can start the year hot again, then maybe you can get a couple months of production and flip him for a Brain Freeze.  2012 Projections: 55/17/65/.265/10

56. Brandon Belt – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “You may get a top 20 outfielder from any of these guys.  Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.”  I went over Brandon Belt’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

57. Eric Thames – With a full season of at-bats, Thames stands to have a huge break out…Or he’ll hit 20 homers and .250.  Right now, he’s in the 2 hole — not that there’s anything wrong with being in the two hole — while Rasmus is in the 7 hole.  Heresy!   Blasphemy!  Other words in the thesaurus!  I imagine Rasmus and Thames will flip-flop by May at the latest, possibly as soon as Opening Day.  Either the hoo, we’re just talking about runs vs. RBIs…Or are we?!  Yeah, we probably are, but Thames may see better pitches in the two hole.  It’s worth noting, so I did.  Worth Noting, II:  The Return of Worth Noting, the Blue Jays have, like, a dozen outfielders.  I like Thames for power, which is also called hydroelectricity.  Al Gore invented that.  After the internet.  2012 Projections:  70/20/75/.255/5

58. Yonder Alonso – Went over my Alonso projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

59. Nolan Reimold – I already went over my Nolan Reimold 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it prior to the O’s being boneheads and getting Betemit.  Play some Bruno Mars in the O’s front office and send in Tyler the Creator to kill everyone.  I think Reimold will still get his 500 ABs because Betemit will play some 3rd, isn’t an everyday player and Chris Davis is at 1st.  Only people that know how well Davis will do at 1st is your deity of choice and Bill James, which might be the same thing in some circles. (Which should not to be confused with Google Circles.  BTW, if Google+’s whole point was to see how fast people will abandon a social networking site, it’s a success.)  2012 Projections:  65/24/80/.250/10

60. Roger Bernadina – If I didn’t get burned by Bernadina last year, he might’ve showed up higher on these rankings.  Ooh, hold on, someone’s knocking on my door.  “Hey, it’s Excitement For Bernadina here.  I just moved into the building and wanted to say you shouldn’t give up hope on Bernadina.  He should be starting this year.”  Me, “The Nats sent Bernadina down last year and decided to start Brian Bixler.  If you know who Brian Bixler is, you’re related to him.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I know, that was a tough blow.”  Me, “Blow?  Sending down Bernadina and starting Bixler was the equivalent of Bixler taking a bat and hitting Bernadina in the balls – assuming Bixler would actually make contact.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I appreciate you, Grey Albright.  Please give Bernadina another chance.  Us Excitement For Bernadina’s have to stick together.  By the way, did you see a package from Amazon by my door?  It’s missing.”  Me, “Nope.”  2012 Projections:  55/10/65/.260/20

2011 was supposed to be a big year for Shin-Soo Choo — he was coming off his 2nd straight 20-20 season, his looming military service requirement to the Korean government was in the rearview mirror and he was just entering his prime age. Many (including yours truly) predicted a true breakout, and drafted him as an OF1. The statline that ensued packed about as much punch as Ralph Wiggum’s love life. Choo started the season in a horrendous slump before being caught for a DUI, and from there his slump spiraled out of control. Finally and mercifully his season hit rock bottom when a thumb injury sidelined him for a long period of time. Hailing from a culture that holds honor and duty in very high esteem, it would be foolish to say that the distraction of the DUI was not at least partly to blame for his first half struggles.

The story takes a positive turn after that, as Choo successfully and uneventfully rehabbed from his injury and returned in the second half.  The results were enough to remind owners of why they spent a high draft pick. He flexed his 20-20 skillset, hitting 3 homeruns and stealing 4 bags in August to go along with an otherworldly .348 batting average. This resurgence was ultimately cut short when Choo fell victim to “the year of the oblique,” straining the pesky muscle and ending his season prematurely. When evaluating Choo for early 2012 drafts, I find myself largely ignoring his abysmal first half 2011 and looking to that solid month of August. In doing so I am trusting that the problems were largely between the ears and that he put them in the past in the 2nd half and will be fine for this season. His ADP currently sits in the 70s, which is a pretty sizeable value for a true 5 category threat with a proven floor of production.

While we are on the subject of toolsy outfielders, I may be in the minority but I’m buying Carl Crawford this year. Yes, last year was about as ugly as it gets, and yes he still will probably be relegated to hitting in a less-than-advantageous spot in Boston’s lineup in 2012. These rather unsavory facts aside, I think a pretty convincing reason can be made to draft Crawford at his current ADP (mid-late 3rd round). At a glance his paltry 11 homeruns look bad, but consider that his career average for homeruns in a season sits somewhere around 15. Additionally, his 2011 ISO is actually HIGHER than his career ISO. Recall that you are NOT drafting Crawford for his power. You drafted him because he is a speedster that hits double digit home runs. He hit that power mark last year, and will continue to do that going forward.

Since power is not Crawford’s game the bigger issue was obviously his inexplicable drop in steals from 47 in 2010 to 18 in 2011. The aforementioned position in the lineup certainly played a part, as did nagging injuries, but in my opinion the largest single factor in this drop was his utilization. I really think that the Red Sox put the brakes on his game. This year, sweeping changes have been made to the Red Sox in both the front office and managerial positions. Since they have made such a huge investment in Crawford, they will really have no choice but to turn him loose going forward. This, coupled with an additional year getting used to the “pressure” environment in Boston, makes me bullish on Crawford this year.

Some more quick busts turned 2012 fantasy baseball value picks:

Nick Swisher – Still hitting in a bandbox in a great lineup. Yankees do not have better options anyway.

Kevin Youkilis – GGOW (Greek God of Walks) getting drafted in the 6th round at a weak 3B position? Yes, please.

Ike Davis – The latest casualty to the Mets’ training staff looks like a fine value at the end of drafts this year. Keeping with our Simpsons theme, pretty sure Dr. Nick could do a better job than the scrubs treating these injuries.

Brandon Belt – Maybe we were a year early on the hype train? At a round 15 price tag, I’ll pay to find out.

Andre Ethier – No, we haven’t forgotten about you. If your knee is finally right you might win some leagues as a flier OF3.

Jaime Garcia – Not really a “bust,” but HUGE home/road splits kept him from realizing true potential. Maybe he’s afraid of airplanes? Could be huge if he figures out how to pitch on the road.

Jose Tabata – Bloom is off the rose a bit with nagging injuries, but Shane Victorino upside hasn’t gone anywhere.

Adam Dunn – There’s not much more that can be said about his 2011. Hopefully it really was Ozzie Guillen that was the problem and he could go back to hitting 40 HRs for his fantasy owners. Still hits in a favorable environment.