Fantasy Baseball Advice

Will Middlebrooks was called up to step between his brother, Donnybrook, Bobby Valentine and Youuuuuuuuuk.  Youuuuuuuuuk said, “Ow, my back hurts, I need the DL,” Valentine said, “Just wrap yourself in lavash, that makes everything better.”  Donnybrook erupted in a public place because of needling from Sawx fans and Will Middlebrooks hits a lot of homers in the minors.  Hello, Will, you be staying for dinner?  I’ve prepared a nice spot at the corner spot.  Please disregard the Rays embossed flatware that I have there; it was for someone else.  This year in 23 games in Triple-A, Middlebrooks hit 9 homers and stole three bases.  Last year, he hit 18 in Double-A in 96 games and 7 in 17 games in the low minors.  Yesterday, he went 2-for-3 and stole a base.  He strikes out way too much currently with little to no walks for him to come close to putting up a good average over the long haul.  But long hauls are why you pay movers on Craigslist.  You’re looking at short term if you lost Longoria and, for that, I say grab him in AL-Only and deep mixed leagues.  If you’re in a league where you can grab Alvarez or Chris Davis, then I’d go with them right now.  And, no, I never thought I’d be saying that a month ago.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Beckett – Beckett will only miss one start due to his lat soreness.  Lat’s all, folks.

Mark Prior – Signed by the Red Sox.  Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent desperation.

Mat Gamel – Just when he was finally proving that with playing time he couldn’t hit, he torn his ACL and will miss the season.  Mark down 2013 as the season Gamel can truly disappoint.  With Travis Ishikawa, the Brewers planned for the worst with their 1st base backup, and by that I don’t mean they planned ahead, I mean they literally planned to have the worst backup.

Corey Hart – Due to their aforementioned planning, the Brewers hit grounders at Corey Hart, acclimating him to first.  He said, “I might sneak in there…”  What are you a ninja?  Weeks throws it over to Ishikawa– Bam!  Corey Hart just snuck in and grabbed the throw.

Ryan Braun – Might need a day or two rest after leaving yesterday’s game with a sore Achilles.  Hopefully, he doesn’t have a doctor who stutters because instructing him that he needs to “heal heel” could get confusing for all parties.

Anthony Rizzo – Cubs have discussed internally how to get LaHair and Rizzo in the same lineup.  Razzball Exclusive!  Here’s the Cubs’ inner monologue, “Well, if we agree to off Chone Figgins for the Mariners, and they agree to off Alfonso Soriano, then no one will suspect a thing.”

Bryan LaHair – He hit his 6th homer yesterday.  Hey, Cubs, don’t comb over LaHair yet!

Jeff Samardzija – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Yeah, you should pick up Samardetc.  Yes, you.

Cory Luebke – Lands on the DL with elbow soreness.  I want to think good thoughts here and say he’ll be fine when his DL stint is up and he’ll only miss a few starts, but I can’t say that because he’s a pitcher with pitching elbow soreness.

Chipper Jones – 3-for-6, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  Glass Chipper said yesterday that it’s a daily decision on whether he can play or not on his knee.  And here I thought he woke up on Thursday and said, “I think I’m gonna have a sore knee on Tuesday.”

Brett Gardner – Shutdown from baseball-related activities for a few days.  No spitting or grabbing your crotch for you!

Ryan Zimmerman – In case you missed it, Zimmerman’s return date was bumped from Sunday to Tuesday.  Here’s Zimmerman at the Genius Bar, “Hey, for some reason I marked my iCal down to give me a reminder to have an injury setback every day at 2 PM, and it’s not showing up until 4.”

Roy Halladay – 5 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  That’s like the pitching equivalent to what Pujols has been doing for the past month.

Carlos Ruiz – 3-for-5, 2 runs, 7 RBIs and his 4th homer.  7 RBIs is more than some of my teams have combined all week.  I will now squeeze myself into an industrial-sized microwave.

Kyle Seager – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  In our AL-Only team where we lost Longoria, we had Seager back him up.  With back-ups like that who needs front men?  Am I right, last man standing on Blake Shelton’s team from The Voice?  Though I’m simply rooting for “anyone but opera guy” to win.

Jed Lowrie – 3-for-4, 3 runs after hitting a homer yesterday.  You say potato, I say hot schmotato.

Chris Johnson – 4-for-4 as he DIV/0#x’d his HR total with his first 2 HRs of the year in a 6 RBI game.  He is a fantastic 3rd base play 8 times a year.  If he could concentrate that in 1 week and give me a heads up, it would be appreciated.

Kelly Johnson – It was a good day to be a Johnson as Kelly hit his 6th HR while hitting leadoff for the first time this year.  In retrospect, it’s odd that Bobby Cox hated this guy given their surnames are equally phallic.

Brett Lawrie – 0-for-4 as the Blue Jays scored 11 runs.  Ticker tease!

Edwin Encarnacion – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs with his 9th homer.  Coincidentally, this was the 9th time I sighed this season saying, “Why didn’t I draft Encarnacion?”

Jake Arrieta – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Been having a hard time coming around on O’s starters, but Arrieta, like a true love or a really good sandwich, is giving me something to believe in.  Two weeks ago, he was in the Buy, two and a half years ago Stephen wrote about him.  Member Stephen?  His picture looked like Alf blowing a bubble.  Anyway, grab Arrieta.  It’s good for your pancreas (and fantasy baseball team).

Nick Markakis – 2-for-5 and his 3rd homer.  Sparkakis!  Never has such a good rallying call been so wasted.

Matt Harrison – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 baserunners.  My sweet lord that sucks!  Hope Harrison found some inner peace while owners’ ERA and WHIP gently weep.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 2 Ks as he outdueled Verlander, but Crow blew the win as retaliation for Sanchez’s bullpen-taxing short outings and his pranks in the bullpen that show an odd appreciation for Rollie Fingers.

Brennan Boesch – 1-for-4 with his 4th Boesch and bomb!

B.J. Upton – Should be fine after leaving yesterday’s game with cramping.  Not the first time I’ve heard a B.J. pulling up short due to cramps.

Chris Schwinden – 4 IP, 5 ER vs. the Astros.  In the first row at Minute Maid Park was Barbara Bush or as Schwinden would call her Babraham Lincoln.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs with his 6th and 7th homers of the year.  Yeah, and Matt Kemp poops out 6th and 7th homers for breakfast.

Jeff Suppan – 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Does Hodgepadre’ing know no (stutterer!) bounds?  Apparently not.

J.J. Putz – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 2nd blown save.  Call me when he’s got 4 blown saves like every other closer!

Justin Upton – 1-for-3 with a slam & legs.  One of the Upton’s knows how to satisfy his owners and surprisingly it’s not the one named B.J.

A.J. Burnett – 2 2/3 IP, 12 ER vs. St. Louis.  Don’t mess with the Cardinals now that they got that Albertross off their team.

Carlos Beltran – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 7 RBIs with his 6th and 7th homers.  Looks like Berkman bit Beltran and now he’s the new Zombino.

Brian Fuentes – Recorded the save because Balfour’s been ineffective and just threw 29 pitches the day before.  I speculated on Ryan Cook, because at least he’s been good, but the A’s look like they went with a known (if crappy) commodity in Fuentes.  Eh, Fuentes is just a dog with different fleas and if you think he’s good, you’ve been in the monkey house too long, as Tim Gunn would say.

Heath Bell – Zero recorded outs, blown save, ERA balloons to 11.74.  In the next week, one of two things will happen to Bell:  Cishek or Mujica will take over the closing job or he will be traded to the Red Sox.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-5 with his 3rd homer which was a walk off homer to give my man Henry Rodriguez a win.  Like I needed more reason to like Ian Desmond.  C’mon, you tantalizer!

Stephen Lombardozzi – 1-for-3, hitting .293 in the two hole.  Hold on, I wanna call Ms. Cleo of the Psychic Friends Hotline.  “Hello, Ms. Cleo?”  “Hey, child, how you doing with your fine moo-stache?”  “Good, Ms. Cleo, question for you.  What do you see happening next week with Espinosa and Lombardozzi when Zimmerman returns?”  “What a good question from such a handsome, young man!  Next week, Zimmerman will return and Lombardozzi will take over 2nd base and Espinosa will be sent–”  Sorry, I had to cut off before I was charged the extra $1.99, but she was about to say he’d be sent down.  I think Ms. Cleo’s on to something.

Jered Weaver – Threw a no-hitter with one walk and 9 Ks.  It was like he was facing nine Pujolses.

Grey and Rudy are letting me run a team for Razzball, and I’m totally pumped about it.  See, this is my first venture into the realm of expert leagues or writer’s leagues or whatever the hell you wanna call them and the pressure on a rookie like me is enormous.  Grey told me I can only cover White Sox prospects if I don’t finish in the top eight.  I feel like Andrew Luck or something… probably bigger than that, actually.  Anyway.  The auction happened a couple Thursdays ago and my strategy was simple:  don’t look stupid.  I’m not quite sure if I’ve succeeded in that regard.  You tell me.  Click here to see the complete auction results.

Format:  14 teams, mixed, roto, 5×5 – C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, RP, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL, DL, DL

C – Joe Mauer $14

C – John Buck $1

1B – Ike Davis $12

2B – Ian Kinsler $34

3B – Mark Reynolds $10

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera $14

MI – Daniel Murphy $4

CI – Mike Carp $3

OF – Ryan Braun $43

OF – Michael Bourn $23

OF – Yoenis Cespedes $7

OF – Carlos Beltran $7

OF – Nick Markakis $8

U – Colby Rasmus $3

–

SP – Matt Cain $20

RP – Joe Nathan $8

P – Stephen Strasburg $20

P – Matt Thornton $7

P – Ted Lilly $4

P – Justin Masterson $3

P – Colby Lewis $3

P – Edinson Volquez $4

P – Gavin Floyd $2

Bench – Sergio Romo $1

Bench – Phil Hughes $3

Bench – Vance Worley $2

My goal was to stay on budget.  I targeted a $180/$80 split between hitting and pitching and I ended up at $183/$77.  Not bad.  I also wanted to make sure I had some dough left near the end in order to ensure I could buy a few of my favorite sleepers for $2 or $3.  This plan backfired.  Not that I didn’t have money near the end – I had plenty – but rather, there was literally no one left who I wanted for two bucks.  That’s the reason you see purchases like Phil Hughes for $3 and Vance Worley for $2.  Spend it if you got it, right?  Hell yeah I’ll bid you up on an injured Mike Carp – I still have twelve bucks left to spend on three negative-value players.  No point in leaving dollars out there. 

Favorite Buys

I was pleased to get Braun at $43, especially when six guys – Tulo ($49), Miggy ($49), Kemp ($46), Bautista ($46), Pujols ($45), Cano ($44) – went for more.  I thought I got great value across my entire outfield, actually.  Beltran is a health risk, sure, but I’ll take on that risk for $7 – upside is worth twice that, at least.  I also love the flexibility Daniel Murphy provides in a deep CI/MI league like this.  I’ll take him for four bucks any day.

Least Favorite Buys

Ted Lilly and Mike Carp are on the DL and I spent a combined $7 on the two.  The league has five DL slots, so this isn’t a killer, but I’m certainly not thrilled.  I knew Lilly was having issues when I bought him, but I was hopeful he wouldn’t end up on the DL.  I’m also growing increasingly skeptical on Volquez.  He was one of those I’ve-got-a-lot-of-money-left-so-I-might-as-well-pay-for-the-upside guys near the end of the auction.

Most Important Thing To Note

This is just the beginning.  Drafting is certainly the most exciting component of the fantasy baseball season, but it’s not the most important.  Any winning team I’ve had in the past has been based on in-season management.  I enjoy the grind of the baseball season and I’m sure that by mid-season my team will look quite different from how it appears at this moment.  Of course, I’ve never been up against such a knowledgeable group of competitors.  I’m looking forward to see how my skills stack up.  I’ll be sure to keep you posted.

‘How could anything get past Grey Albright!’  you say in an incredulous tone.  It’s true, it is very hard to sneak out from under Grey’s all-seeing ways.  He is the fantasy baseball equivalent of the Eye of Sauron, though slightly less malicious.  But we here at Deep League Thoughts (like how I tied my previous title into it’s own thinktank like it’s not just one lunatic behind these posts?  Genius.  Sheer, evil genius.) believe that sometimes all a guy needs is a chance for 500 ABs and  Wilson Betemit could be an example of that.

Yes, I know, you just threw up in your mouth a little seeing Betemit as the title of this post.  It’s ok, go rinse your mouth out, have a few saltine crackers and drink some 7-Up to calm your stomach.  Feeling better?  Now Mr. Wilson was supposed to be the next big thing at SS for the Braves in 1996, back when both he and I were pimply-faced teenagers.  Now as a pimply-faced adult, I look back at Betemit’s career to see what went so wrong and truthfully it’s not easy to tell.  His skill set is the same now as it was back then.  He’s bad at defense, can’t hit lefties and strikes out a lot.  He seemed relegated to the role of futility player no matter where he went.  But over the last couple of years, Wilson has been able to put together quite a few at-bats, amassing 674 ABs between the Royals and the Tigers.  Over that span, he’s managed to hit 21 HRs and 89 RBIs all while being a part-timer.  Looking all the way back to the one season – 2006 between two teams – where he garnered at least 400 at-bats, he had 18 HRs with a palatable .263 batting average and a .469 SLG%.  Now he’s in Baltimore, a place where strike-out artisans such as Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis have come to fan.  ‘But wait’ you say, ‘don’t those two play Betemit’s two main positions now at 1st and 3rd?’.  Very astute of you.  But you know what other role Betemit can play?  Designated Hitter.

Yes, at the moment, there is not any clear DH seemingly available to Baltimore right now.  Maybe Nick Markakis takes that role for a bit when he returns, but their OF is thin.  I have a hard time seeing that happening for long if at all.  Let’s not forget Chris Davis is being given a chance at 1st and has proven nothing.  If he doesn’t pan out, Reynolds can move to first and they can put Betemit back at 3rd.  I’m not one to make bold predictions but if Baltimore’s lineup shakes out the way it is seeming like it could, I don’t see why Betemit isn’t somewhere in the 4~6 spot of that order, getting 450 ABs and hitting 20 HRs while driving in 80 RBI with a .260 average.  Don’t like that?  Well, go draft Martin Prado then while I hurl.  Now hand me those saltines, please.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the hitter recaps.  We meaning me, but I’ll include you.  No, that’s not a cue to try to hold my hand.  Why are you now patting my butt?  (Here’s all the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  The pitching recap will begin next.  To recap, the end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Brett Gardner – Truth be told, I was raised a Yankee fan.  Don’t think it affects me for fantasy because the Yankees are usually one of the last teams I watch when there’s a full slate of games.  I just don’t like their announcers.  And I could really care less about their players unless I have one of them on my fantasy teams.  I mention this because Gardner is about the only Yankee I tend to like for fantasy more than other ‘perts.  He just seems so underappreciated.  No, he’s not going to hit 20 homers any time soon, but he gives you SAGNOF without totally killing you elsewhere.  Preseason Rank #22, 2011 Projections:  105/7/55/.270/45, Final Numbers:  87/7/36/.259/49

22. Jay Bruce – I talk about how accurate my projections are in blurbs below, so I won’t say it here besides saying I’m not saying it while saying it.  You can go ahead and put Bruce, McCutchen and Stanton in a pile of players that I’m crazy sexy excited about for next year.  Preseason Rank #25, 2011 Projections:  85/32/100/.270/7, Final Numbers: 84/32/97/.256/8

23. Adam Jones – In the preseason, I said something like I’m being optimistic with my Adam Jones projections, but I like him and I think he’s about to break out in the non-acne way.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!  Preseason Rank #44, 2011 Projections:  85/25/95/.295/12, Final Numbers: 68/25/83/.280/12

24. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or do my projections seem really accurate this year?  I’m like butter with the ER.  Preseason Rank #36, 2011 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/10, Final Numbers: 78/22/84/.300/4

25. Shane Victorino – It’s always sad for me to see a player I’ve liked for a while hit the point where I think his value is going to start declining.  2011 might be the last season of a valuable Flying Hawaiian, poi.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections:  90/12/65/.285/32, Final Numbers:  95/17/61/.279/19

26. Ichiro Suzuki – Now this schmohawk is definitely on the decline.  Take a half second off a guy’s legs who beats the ball into the ground and you get Ichiro’s 2011.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  85/5/40/.320/32, Final Numbers: 80/5/47/.272/40

27. Mike Stanton – As said in a previous recap, I really don’t want to talk too much about 2012 in these recaps.  Feel it defeats the purpose of what I’m trying to do, but can 2012 happen already just so I can see Stanton take the next step?  We’re talking 40+ homers and 10+ steals.  I love Mike Stanton.  Preseason Rank #26, 2011 Projections:  70/32/80/.250/7, Final Numbers:  79/34/87/.262/5

28. Drew Stubbs – As I said the other day with B.J. Upton about low average biases, Stubbs seems to fall into that grouping.  Can hit 15 to 20 homers and steal 30 to 40 bases, but that seems to go out the metaphorical window when he hits .240.  Preseason Rank #30, 2011 Projections:  95/18/65/.260/32, Final Numbers:  92/15/44/.243/40

29. Cameron Maybin – This guy scares me.  Not in the “Holy crapballs, why is there a cat jumping out a closet with creepy music playing?” way.  He scares me because I touted Maybin for a few years and he kept disappointing, then when I finally ignored him, he did well.  Maybe I should pretend to ignore Dexter Fowler next year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 82/9/40/.264/40

30. Howie Kendrick – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

31. Corey Hart – I ranked him 31st overall in the preseason and he came in 31st at the end of the year.  How about a boo-ya with a side order of boo-ya?  And to drink I’d like a shot of boo-ya with a boo-ya back!  Yeah, that’s kinda boo-ya B.S. because I told you in the preseason to not draft Hart.  Though I wasn’t completely off because he was overrated coming off a career year.  So maybe a small boo-ya.  Preseason Rank #31, 2011 Projections:  70/21/80/.260/10, Final Numbers: 80/26/63/.285/7

32. Matt Holliday – Didn’t see it coming in the preseason, but I think we’ve seen the last of Holliday’s huge production years.  He gets these niggling injuries and just doesn’t have big-time power or speed.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  95/27/105/.310/10, Final Numbers:  83/22/75/.296/2

33. Nelson Cruz – I’ll contest (as I’m about to do) that Cruz is actually way more valuable than 33rd overall because when he gets injured he goes down for extended periods of time and you can fill him in while getting more stats from someone else.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  70/27/90/.285/15, Final Numbers: 64/29/87/.263/9

34. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

35. Nick Markakis – He’s become a guy that gives nothing special but a little bit of everything.  Versatile but boring.  Kinda like brown slacks.  I will now call him Markhakis.  Preseason Rank #45, 2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.305/10, Final Numbers:  72/15/73/.284/12

36. Matt Joyce – As valuable as Joyce was, and he was valuable when you consider where he was drafted, he was really just a 1st half player.  You kinda could’ve done better elsewhere in the 2nd half…. Okay, I wrote that then looked at his month-to-month stats and Joyce wasn’t exactly a 1st half guy as much as he was a Mr. May.  Sounds like he was swinging Dave Winfield’s shtick.  Preseason Rank #82, 2011 Projections:  40/17/55/.250/4, Final Numbers:  69/19/75/.277/13

37. Johnny Damon – On one hand, it’s weird that I didn’t rank Damon in the preseason.  On the other hand, I ranked Joyce and hoped Damon would get pushed to the bench with Sean-Rod and/or Brignac pushing Zobrist to the outfield.  On the third lesser known hand that is actually a glove on a soda can, it’s Johnny Damon so maybe I didn’t rank him because I just figured he’d be rank.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 79/16/73/.261/19

38. Mark Trumbo – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

39. Krispie Young – I think January Grey might’ve been sniffing glue when he ranked Krispie 13th overall for outfielders last preseason.  January Grey, “It was a dark time.”  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  75/25/85/.240/25, Final Numbers:  89/20/71/.236/22

40. Juan Pierre – Ha!  He was a top 40 outfielder?  Oh, c’mon.  Sure, he doubled his projected home run total, but he could’ve quadrupled it and it would still be miserable.  He was unownable for huge stretches of the season.  2 homers and 27 steals?  Seriously, c’mon.  I mean, c’mon c’mon.  C’mon!  I would’ve preferred healthy stretches of Shin-Soo and a waiver wire add to Juan “2 homer” Pierre.  Preseason Rank #40 1/8, 2011 Projections:  85/1/35/.300/50, Final Numbers:  80/2/50/.279/27